I am not a natural May fan. I think she survived in the Home Office by avoiding a lot of responsibility. I also think that the Home Office is less of a death pool that it used to be when it was responsible for jails and justice as well. I think she is excessively cautious and distrusting of others. I am pining for Dave to be honest.
But I still think your assessment is harsh. Not only had Dave failed to have any preliminary work done on Brexit, he had also failed to consider whether the UK Civil Service was even capable of delivering it. The new Brexit department has had to hire in a whole range of experts to advise and inform on a wide range of areas which the UK has not dealt with for decades while they were EU competences.
It would have taken an FDR to make sense of this from day 1 or even day 185. Keeping your mouth shut until you know what you should be saying may frustrate the 24 hour news cycle but it is not necessarily the worst thing to do.
I may be being harsh. That's why I said that I hope there is a lot of thinking being done and that we will be pleasantly surprised. I have my doubts about whether there is anything of substance behind May's sensible looking persona. She strikes me as a natural Deputy or COO rather than an FDR or even a Maggie. But I'm prepared be persuaded otherwise and I hope I'm wrong.
So do we all. I may be a Brexiteer but these are anxious times and we need good judgment at the top.
Interesting comment from Jon Sopel on the Six O'Clock News. He said that if a view was taken that the Wikileaks stuff influenced the election, it would de-legitimise Trump's presidency.
Would it? Unless Trump and/or the Republicans were hacking the Democrats or put the Russians or whoever up to it, I don't see what difference it makes. Before the election we were told that the revelations about the fixing of the Democrat Primary would make no difference. Now we're being told it cost them the White House.
1. The team she has built - particularly in the key departments - are not to be trusted and don't appear particularly competent either; 2. She hasn't really set any sort of strategy - as far as we can tell. ("We will make a success of Brexit" is not a strategy. At best, it is an aspiration. Others might call it something more caustic.) 3. She does not appear willing to involve others in her thinking. Of all the decisions which this government has to take Brexit is the one where all sorts of people and groups should be involved and be responsible for what happens. In not wanting to reveal her negotiating hand (as if the EU/European governments aren't perfectly able to work out for themselves what the UK might want and where its strengths and vulnerabilities lie) she is making (ironically enough) the same mistake as Cameron who negotiated his deal in private and was then left looking like a chump when it was revealed to the world.
Britain made a number of serious mistakes in its approach to the EU ever since the start. Regardless of your views on Brexit, it does look as if we are repeating the same mistakes - and making a few new ones for good measure - in our approach to our non-EU future.
(I might even do a thread on them though I think many of us feel we've had enough Referendum/Brexit headers to last several lifetimes.)
hmmmm
1. you could say the same about Cameron but righties didnt complain at the time 2. she hasnt declared a strategy as yet, but that's not the same as saying she hasnt got one. She's given a date for announcements judge things then 3. maybe, but as yet it's too early to say what she has and hasnt done, people are only seeing things from the outside and jumping to conclusions
atm there are just too many people demanding to know things, its too early she should tell them all to fk off or just ignore them, as she appears to be doing
She needs to syndicate her risk. Others need to own and be involved in the decisions she is taking.
Others will be needed to implement those decisions and, even if they have the wisdom of Solomon behind them, if there aren't people prepared to push them through and bat for them and watch her back, nothing will happen and she will be finished.
I couldn't care less about her. I do care about what it means for the country.
3. She does not appear willing to involve others in her thinking. Of all the decisions which this government has to take Brexit is the one where all sorts of people and groups should be involved and be responsible for what happens. In not wanting to reveal her negotiating hand (as if the EU/European governments aren't perfectly able to work out for themselves what the UK might want and where its strengths and vulnerabilities lie) she is making (ironically enough) the same mistake as Cameron who negotiated his deal in private and was then left looking like a chump when it was revealed to the world.
Britain made a number of serious mistakes in its approach to the EU ever since the start. Regardless of your views on Brexit, it does look as if we are repeating the same mistakes - and making a few new ones for good measure - in our approach to our non-EU future.
(I might even do a thread on them though I think many of us feel we've had enough Referendum/Brexit headers to last several lifetimes.)
I am not a natural May fan. I think she survived in the Home Office by avoiding a lot of responsibility. I also think that the Home Office is less of a death pool that it used to be when it was responsible for jails and justice as well. I think she is excessively cautious and distrusting of others. I am pining for Dave to be honest.
But I still think your assessment is harsh. Not only had Dave failed to have any preliminary work done on Brexit, he had also failed to consider whether the UK Civil Service was even capable of delivering it. The new Brexit department has had to hire in a whole range of experts to advise and inform on a wide range of areas which the UK has not dealt with for decades while they were EU competences.
It would have taken an FDR to make sense of this from day 1 or even day 185. Keeping your mouth shut until you know what you should be saying may frustrate the 24 hour news cycle but it is not necessarily the worst thing to do.
May is just trying to make the best of an impossible situation. If she says anything she is toast.
Yes, @DavidL gets it right. There's a lot of work to be done, from a standing start, and the PM has clearly decided she'll do things on her own timetable rather than be rushed or pushed around by the relentless news cycle. Hence the evident frustration from certain sections of the media.
She needs to make her end of March deadline though, or else engineer a general election soon after.
Edit: @Alanbrooke also makes the same point below.
1. The team she has built s to last several lifetimes.)
hmmmm
1. you could say the same about Cameron but righties didnt complain at the time 2. she hasnt declared a strategy as yet, but that's not the same as saying she hasnt got one. She's given a date for announcements judge things then 3. maybe, but as yet it's too early to say what she has and hasnt done, people are only seeing things from the outside and jumping to conclusions
atm there are just too many people demanding to know things, its too early she should tell them all to fk off or just ignore them, as she appears to be doing
She needs to syndicate her risk. Others need to own and be involved in the decisions she is taking.
Others will be needed to implement those decisions and, even if they have the wisdom of Solomon behind them, if there aren't people prepared to push them through and bat for them and watch her back, nothing will happen and she will be finished.
I couldn't care less about her. I do care about what it means for the country.
I thought you were a hands off person ?
if that's her way of handling things she need to get on with it and we can judge her on the results
she's been served a shit sandwich by Cameron with a friendly bon appetit, I dont see why she needs to rush in to anything
I believe everyone should hold fire on Theresa May until the Supreme Court's decision is known and she has delivered her big speech towards the end of the month.
I expect her to have a robust way forward that will address the Court's judgement and absolutely stop free movement, no matter what the consequences are.
Interesting that Chuka Umunna's cross party committee today is talking of visa systems and requiring all immigrants to be able to speak English or take compulsory lessons on arriving in the UK.
Also McCluskey's challenger in Unite is demanding the end of free movement.
The narrative is moving to full border control and if necessary at the expense of the single market
I really don't think who is leader of Unite makes much difference to Corbyn's prospects as Labour leader, Labour members have just reelected him comfortably and could not care less
Agree. I remain of the opinion that the trades unions only have one effective weapon that they can deploy against the leadership, that being withdrawal of funds, and they dare not use it. The Labour Party would be bankrupted and the wider Labour Movement irrevocably split by such action.
The unions' best option is to sit tight, ride out the storm, and hope that an opportunity at some point presents itself for Labour to be salvaged, before it crumbles away to nothing. Of course, some Labour MPs may be rather less circumspect about defecting or giving up - rather than spending however many more years gathering dust on the Commons backbenches, whilst waiting for the electorate to hand them their P45s.
Interesting comment from Jon Sopel on the Six O'Clock News. He said that if a view was taken that the Wikileaks stuff influenced the election, it would de-legitimise Trump's presidency.
Would it? Unless Trump and/or the Republicans were hacking the Democrats or put the Russians or whoever up to it, I don't see what difference it makes. Before the election we were told that the revelations about the fixing of the Democrat Primary would make no difference. Now we're being told it cost them the White House.
Jon Sopel is hardly independent. Last pictures of him recently showed him and Obama getting on famously.
The left will not admit it but Hillary Clinton was the disaster, almost any other Democrat would have won easily
3. She does not appear willing to involve others in her thinking. Of all the decisions which this government has to take Brexit is the one where all sorts of people and groups should be involved and be responsible for what happens. In not wanting to reveal her negotiating hand (as if the EU/European governments aren't perfectly able to work out for themselves what the UK might want and where its strengths and vulnerabilities lie) she is making (ironically enough) the same mistake as Cameron who negotiated his deal in private and was then left looking like a chump when it was revealed to the world.
Britain made a number of serious mistakes in its approach to the EU ever since the start. Regardless of your views on Brexit, it does look as if we are repeating the same mistakes - and making a few new ones for good measure - in our approach to our non-EU future.
(I might even do a thread on them though I think many of us feel we've had enough Referendum/Brexit headers to last several lifetimes.)
I am not a natural May fan. I think she survived in the Home Office by avoiding a lot of responsibility. I also think that the Home Office is less of a death pool that it used to be when it was responsible for jails and justice as well. I think she is excessively cautious and distrusting of others. I am pining for Dave to be honest.
But I still think your assessment is harsh. Not only had Dave failed to have any preliminary work done on Brexit, he had also failed to consider whether the UK Civil Service was even capable of delivering it. The new Brexit department has had to hire in a whole range of experts to advise and inform on a wide range of areas which the UK has not dealt with for decades while they were EU competences.
It would have taken an FDR to make sense of this from day 1 or even day 185. Keeping your mouth shut until you know what you should be saying may frustrate the 24 hour news cycle but it is not necessarily the worst thing to do.
May is just trying to make the best of an impossible situation. If she says anything she is toast.
Yes, @DavidL gets it right. There's a lot of work to be done, from a standing start, and the PM has clearly decided she'll do things on her own timetable rather than be rushed or pushed around by the relentless news cycle. Hence the evident frustration from certain sections of the media.
She needs to make her end of March deadline though, or else engineer a general election soon after.
Edit: @Alanbrooke also makes the same point below.
I don't know if I am right or not. I just recognise that it's tricky and I am hoping for the best.
That one comes up every few years. This time it's a note to the new F1 management that the race fees are getting excessive, when the largest annual ticketed crowd in the country still can't make a profit.
Good to see Kamal Ahmed on the Six O'Clock News telling us why the PMI figures are bad for Brexit Britain.
Maybe that is why Theresa May is boycotting Andrew Marr on Sunday and giving an exclusive interview to Sophy Ridge on Sky at 10.00am on Sunday
Don't blame her, though I'm not sure I'd give Sky an interview. Maybe she should have gone on LBC.
And how is LBC a national broadcaster.
You can listen online.
One thing you know for certain is that Sky will play and replay Sophy's interview with Theresa May every half hour for days and days.
Sky are also promoting the Prime Minister's first new year broadcast with Sophy on Sunday. This is a big moment not just for the PM but most certainly for Sophy Ridge. It will be a fascinating interview
I believe everyone should hold fire on Theresa May until the Supreme Court's decision is known and she has delivered her big speech towards the end of the month.
I expect her to have a robust way forward that will address the Court's judgement and absolutely stop free movement, no matter what the consequences are.
Interesting that Chuka Umunna's cross party committee today is talking of visa systems and requiring all immigrants to be able to speak English or take compulsory lessons on arriving in the UK.
Also McCluskey's challenger in Unite is demanding the end of free movement.
The narrative is moving to full border control and if necessary at the expense of the single market
Exactly. Many of the more pragmatic Labourites as well as virtually all of the Tories know that the game is up for Freedom of Movement, and we also know from Theresa May's conference speech last October that she has already decided that the rule of EU law in Britain will end. That means withdrawal from the jurisdiction of the ECJ, and from these two things all else flows.
Even if it were to be offered by the EU27, which I suspect it probably wouldn't be in any case, the UK will not be doing a Norway. The EEA is off the table. I daresay that the Government may attempt to negotiate a transitional arrangement, as a bridge to a full free trade agreement in the future, and I think that the Government would be prepared to accept some EU obligations and to make budget contributions during that time. However, the end point of the process already seems clear enough to me: Leave means Leave, even if Ukip can and will complain that it isn't coming quickly enough.
However, the end point of the process already seems clear enough to me: Leave means Leave, even if Ukip can and will complain that it isn't coming quickly enough.
If this is the response to the Scottish government's paper, it does indeed tell them everything about how Westminster sees the Union of equals.
However, the end point of the process already seems clear enough to me: Leave means Leave, even if Ukip can and will complain that it isn't coming quickly enough.
If this is the response to the Scottish government's paper, it does indeed tell them everything about how Westminster sees the Union of equals.
Scotland was part of the UK on June 23rd, and still is...
I really don't think who is leader of Unite makes much difference to Corbyn's prospects as Labour leader, Labour members have just reelected him comfortably and could not care less
Agree. I remain of the opinion that the trades unions only have one effective weapon that they can deploy against the leadership, that being withdrawal of funds, and they dare not use it. The Labour Party would be bankrupted and the wider Labour Movement irrevocably split by such action.
The unions' best option is to sit tight, ride out the storm, and hope that an opportunity at some point presents itself for Labour to be salvaged, before it crumbles away to nothing. Of course, some Labour MPs may be rather less circumspect about defecting or giving up - rather than spending however many more years gathering dust on the Commons backbenches, whilst waiting for the electorate to hand them their P45s.
Indeed, the unions' influence in electing Labour leaders disappeared when Miliband scrapped the electoral college
I believe everyone should hold fire on Theresa May until the Supreme Court's decision is known and she has delivered her big speech towards the end of the month.
I expect her to have a robust way forward that will address the Court's judgement and absolutely stop free movement, no matter what the consequences are.
Interesting that Chuka Umunna's cross party committee today is talking of visa systems and requiring all immigrants to be able to speak English or take compulsory lessons on arriving in the UK.
Also McCluskey's challenger in Unite is demanding the end of free movement.
The narrative is moving to full border control and if necessary at the expense of the single market
Exactly. Many of the more pragmatic Labourites as well as virtually all of the Tories know that the game is up for Freedom of Movement, and we also know from Theresa May's conference speech last October that she has already decided that the rule of EU law in Britain will end. That means withdrawal from the jurisdiction of the ECJ, and from these two things all else flows.
Even if it were to be offered by the EU27, which I suspect it probably wouldn't be in any case, the UK will not be doing a Norway. The EEA is off the table. I daresay that the Government may attempt to negotiate a transitional arrangement, as a bridge to a full free trade agreement in the future, and I think that the Government would be prepared to accept some EU obligations and to make budget contributions during that time. However, the end point of the process already seems clear enough to me: Leave means Leave, even if Ukip can and will complain that it isn't coming quickly enough.
May is clearly aiming for a Canada type deal ultimately with a dash of Switzerland, an EEA Norway style deal is off the table as she will not compromise on border control
However, the end point of the process already seems clear enough to me: Leave means Leave, even if Ukip can and will complain that it isn't coming quickly enough.
If this is the response to the Scottish government's paper, it does indeed tell them everything about how Westminster sees the Union of equals.
Chuka Umunna's cross party committee includes SNP members. Furthermore the SNP do not have 100% support within their own MP's and MSP's to remain in the EU
However, the end point of the process already seems clear enough to me: Leave means Leave, even if Ukip can and will complain that it isn't coming quickly enough.
If this is the response to the Scottish government's paper, it does indeed tell them everything about how Westminster sees the Union of equals.
Never mind, the SNP is in terminal decline, and enthusiastic born-again leaver Ruth Davidson will soon be installed as First Minister to popular Brexity acclaim.
However, the end point of the process already seems clear enough to me: Leave means Leave, even if Ukip can and will complain that it isn't coming quickly enough.
If this is the response to the Scottish government's paper, it does indeed tell them everything about how Westminster sees the Union of equals.
Never mind, the SNP is in terminal decline, and enthusiastic born-again leaver Ruth Davidson will soon be installed as First Minister to popular Brexity acclaim.
Everyone says so.
I knew that was the Scottish Tory Surge Klaxon I heard earlier.
I'm perplexed about the US response to the hacking of the Democrats. Years ago the Yanks would have gone out of their way to play down the power of Russia in such a realm. Do they really want to acknowledge that Russia has the power to decide who the President of US is? Even if the Russians were behind the hack and are pleased that Trump won, I bet they are rather perplexed at the reaction to it in America.
However, the end point of the process already seems clear enough to me: Leave means Leave, even if Ukip can and will complain that it isn't coming quickly enough.
If this is the response to the Scottish government's paper, it does indeed tell them everything about how Westminster sees the Union of equals.
The Scottish Government's proposals are unworkable, and were made with exactly one purpose in mind - to help advance the cause of independence, just like every single other thing that they ever, ever do.
There was one referendum for one country in which each elector had one vote. Neither Scotland nor any of the other parts of the country that voted Remain are entitled to special treatment just because a majority of voters in those areas were on the losing side this time. Those of us inhabiting parts of the country that never voted in Labour MPs, yet who were expected to put up with thirteen long years of Blair and Brown, sure as Hell never expected or received consolation prizes. And we would've got pretty short shrift if we had asked for them.
Your critique of the "Union of Equals" does, of course, have some merit. Through its incessant moaning, Scotland has secured inflated levels of public spending and an enormously powerful devolved legislature. Wales, which is much poorer, doesn't get anything like as much money per head as Scotland does. The English taxpayer subsidises the entire merry-go-round and has no devolved Parliament of his or her own, either.
Poor, defenceless, hard done-by wee Scotland. How they live with this constant diet of brutal discrimination and oppression I cannot fathom.
I need any account paying 2.568%+ or its not worth it given my mortgage is 1.89% + base tax free, and yes I do fully intend to earn the £1000 interest PSA tax free this tax year.
Just annoying that risk free FSCS protected 4 and 5% seem to have gone forever. The Tesco offer with £6k between 2 accounts will net me £25.92, hardly worth it I'm in TSB already so no hassle on that one to shift things about. Lloyds sadly ending tommorow.
However, the end point of the process already seems clear enough to me: Leave means Leave, even if Ukip can and will complain that it isn't coming quickly enough.
If this is the response to the Scottish government's paper, it does indeed tell them everything about how Westminster sees the Union of equals.
Neither Scotland nor any of the other parts of the country that voted Remain are entitled to special treatment just because a majority of voters in those areas were on the losing side this time.
Marvellous to see you take a strong line over mealy mouthed government equivocation & obfuscation* over Northern Ireland.
*Though tbf that's pretty much SOP for all their other Brexit pronouncements.
That's a big story - every time Farron talks of open borders Vince Cable will be thrown at him.
This fits my earlier narrative that in the last 24 hours we have seen a change across the political spectrum to agreeing that the end of free movement is inevitable and overrides acess to the single market
"Project Fear Brexit predictions were 'flawed and partisan', new study says
Predictions by the Treasury ahead of the Brexit vote have been brought into question by a study which says that leaving the European Union will halve net migration, give British workers a pay rise and help to solve the housing crisis.
The report from the Centre for Business Research at the University of Cambridge examined the possible future scenarios following the referendum decision to leave the EU"
That's a big story - every time Farron talks of open borders Vince Cable will be thrown at him.
This fits my earlier narrative that in the last 24 hours we have seen a change across the political spectrum to agreeing that the end of free movement is inevitable and overrides acess to the single market
I don't think this has happened in the past 24 hours - perhaps the realisation has percolated through. The vote to LEAVE and much of the reason behind it was, let's be honest, immigration and related concerns.
If May had gone to the public and said Freedom of Movement would be retained, she would be facing a huge political backlash. The end of the Single Market (which I personally welcome) is a more diffuse issue for most people and doesn't directly impact though I imagine there will be those who will be directly and seriously affected.
The political reality of June 23rd has left May with no option - as for Farron, he will come to represent those for whom Freedom of Movement was less of an issue and the Single Market a boon. There is a constituency for that - possibly not a large one but not insignificant. The Conservatives, Labour (perhaps) and UKIP will be on the side of those concerned by immigration.
Do you have a degree from OU? What are the materials like can you really learn from long distance? What if you have a complicated question/s?
Yes (MA too)
Materials are excellent, tutoring very good and available by email as are other students in your tutorial group. Also harder (and therefore better) than you might first think. OU students have among the highest ratings for their university in the UK
Macron would appear to have some momentum, compared to results from same polling company about 6 weeks ago. Was previously polling mid teens, is now polling high teens to early 20's.
Fillon, on the other hand appears to be slipping back a little. In their previous poll he was polling 30-31 and now he is generally mid twenties in most of the various scenarios.
I note that the Cameroons are twisting the knife in Sir Ivan's back today. I'm amazed he was allowed to continue so long after the renegotiation failure.
Do you have a degree from OU? What are the materials like can you really learn from long distance? What if you have a complicated question/s?
Yes (MA too)
Materials are excellent, tutoring very good and available by email as are other students in your tutorial group. Also harder (and therefore better) than you might first think. OU students have among the highest ratings for their university in the UK
When I did Geology at Cardiff in the 80s our lecturers said then that the OU geology course was probably the best and one of the toughest you could do. Many universities used it as the template for their own courses.
Macron would appear to have some momentum, compared to results from same polling company about 6 weeks ago. Was previously polling mid teens, is now polling high teens to early 20's.
Fillon, on the other hand appears to be slipping back a little. In their previous poll he was polling 30-31 and now he is generally mid twenties in most of the various scenarios.
Good spot. It looks like a three way fight for the top 2 places, but the result of Socialist primary might shake things up.
Further evidence that people who actually bother to vote in General Elections rather approve of Brexit. And, it would seem, are growing stronger in their approval over time. Restricting immigration also trumps single market access amongst all social groups, and in all regions except Scotland. And even there free movement is only ahead by 4%.
Opposition both to Remain and FoM is, unsurprisingly, highest amongst C2DE's, who are - or at least were - meant to provide most of the cannon fodder for Labour at election time. Poor Jeremy. It would take a heart of stone not to laugh.
I note that the Cameroons are twisting the knife in Sir Ivan's back today. I'm amazed he was allowed to continue so long after the renegotiation failure.
The speed TM replaced him makes you think that this was planned and he went rogue when he realised he was finished
Don Brind, the preverbial optimist. My colleagues in Unison expect a low turnout and an easy win for McCluskey. Copeland should be a Labour hold, (forget the London media and Westmister gold fish bowl life is different 300 or so miles away), they will not fair badly in the May elections, because the main headline changes will be UKIP to Con and Con to Lib Dem. The opinion polls already overstate Conservative support and they will probably be in the low 30's by the Autumn with Labour close behind, maybe even marginally ahead, with the Lib Dems in the mid teens at least. Labour may lose seats in Liverpool, Manchester, Sheffield and Newcastle etc in May but it will be to the Lib Dems and that is nothing new and will not adversely affect Labours ability to easily win those Cities at a General Election. Even in Scotland, the SNP cannot go any higher and can only fall back and in the Lowland industrial belt that can only mean a return to Labour. Corbyn is in the box seat and will take Labour into the General.
Lol - try looking up the word 'complacency in the dictionary.
"Project Fear Brexit predictions were 'flawed and partisan', new study says
Predictions by the Treasury ahead of the Brexit vote have been brought into question by a study which says that leaving the European Union will halve net migration, give British workers a pay rise and help to solve the housing crisis.
The report from the Centre for Business Research at the University of Cambridge examined the possible future scenarios following the referendum decision to leave the EU"
That's a big story - every time Farron talks of open borders Vince Cable will be thrown at him.
This fits my earlier narrative that in the last 24 hours we have seen a change across the political spectrum to agreeing that the end of free movement is inevitable and overrides acess to the single market
It depends on what the cost is to end it. At the moment this is just free 'I'm in touch' blandness.
Do you have a degree from OU? What are the materials like can you really learn from long distance? What if you have a complicated question/s?
Yes (MA too)
Materials are excellent, tutoring very good and available by email as are other students in your tutorial group. Also harder (and therefore better) than you might first think. OU students have among the highest ratings for their university in the UK
I agree my Hons degree was with the OU .For me years ago was excellent second chance to progress as I could not afford to go to University with two small children. It was hard work having to work full time as well. So thanks to Harold Wilson and Margaret Thatcher for continuing with it after seeing the benefits to many mature students.
I'm perplexed about the US response to the hacking of the Democrats. Years ago the Yanks would have gone out of their way to play down the power of Russia in such a realm. Do they really want to acknowledge that Russia has the power to decide who the President of US is? Even if the Russians were behind the hack and are pleased that Trump won, I bet they are rather perplexed at the reaction to it in America.
Yes it's completely demeaning behaviour and shows up the lack of seriousness of the people engaging in it. Trump is playing it correctly.
That's a big story - every time Farron talks of open borders Vince Cable will be thrown at him.
This fits my earlier narrative that in the last 24 hours we have seen a change across the political spectrum to agreeing that the end of free movement is inevitable and overrides acess to the single market
It depends on what the cost is to end it. At the moment this is just free 'I'm in touch' blandness.
The problem is that we will not know the cost as we will not know the end for years to come.
Macron would appear to have some momentum, compared to results from same polling company about 6 weeks ago. Was previously polling mid teens, is now polling high teens to early 20's.
Fillon, on the other hand appears to be slipping back a little. In their previous poll he was polling 30-31 and now he is generally mid twenties in most of the various scenarios.
Against Valls (the likely PS candidate) Macron is polling 16% (with Bayrou) and 18% (without Bayrou) not much different to where he was before as he splits the centrist vote with Valls, he does better if Montebourg or Hamon is PS candidate as they would split the leftwing vote with Melenchon.
Fillon is on 23% with Bayrou as a candidate and 26% without him as a candidate with Valls as PS candidate, Le Pen on 22% and 23% respectively.
I note that the Cameroons are twisting the knife in Sir Ivan's back today. I'm amazed he was allowed to continue so long after the renegotiation failure.
The speed TM replaced him makes you think that this was planned and he went rogue when he realised he was finished
Personally it feels to me like this is a manufactured story, and that he genuinely did quit early because it makes sense to have one person in the post for all of Article 50 period. It was a surprise to the media because it didn't leak, because he didn't go rogue. And his email resignation was the only moment of drama which was over-hyped by the media who want Brexit drama all the time.
Macron would appear to have some momentum, compared to results from same polling company about 6 weeks ago. Was previously polling mid teens, is now polling high teens to early 20's.
Fillon, on the other hand appears to be slipping back a little. In their previous poll he was polling 30-31 and now he is generally mid twenties in most of the various scenarios.
Against Valls (the likely PS candidate) Macron is polling 16% (with Bayrou) and 18% (without Bayrou) not much different to where he was before as he splits the centrist vote with Valls, he does better if Montebourg or Hamon is PS candidate as they would split the leftwing vote with Melenchon.
Fillon is on 23% with Bayrou as a candidate and 26% without him as a candidate with Valls as PS candidate, Le Pen on 22% and 23% respectively.
Agree that Valls getting through and Bayrou running is the worst case scenario for Macron, but even then he is up two points from the previous poll by the same company. So he at least has some upward momentum. Fillon, however, has dropped 8 points from 31 to 23 in that same scenario.
The gap between Fillon and Macron has closed by 10 points in six weeks. So i would say that the momentum is definitely with Macron and against Fillon. If Bayrou decides not to run or if Valls slips up in the Primary, it will start looking rather tight.
In the last thread there was parise for John Major. He is a wise man.
As PM he always deferred making decisions until they needed to be made and said so.
Thereasa May is of a similar style. No need to make decisions about the Brexit route until you have an idea what the other 27 EU members will accept.
"No plan survives contact with the enemy" On Strategy" (1871), "Moltke on the Art of War"
Interesting that Theresa May has rejected appearing on Andrew Marr for her first interview in the New Year, as tradition has it, and has agreed to appear on Sophy Ridge of Sky's first programme at 10.00am on Sunday
Also I believe that TM will come out forcefully with her plan with taking back border control as a red line by the end of the month and challenge the Country to back her
Who says that appearing on Andrew Marr is a tradition? The programme has not been around for all that long.
In the last thread there was parise for John Major. He is a wise man.
As PM he always deferred making decisions until they needed to be made and said so.
Thereasa May is of a similar style. No need to make decisions about the Brexit route until you have an idea what the other 27 EU members will accept.
"No plan survives contact with the enemy" On Strategy" (1871), "Moltke on the Art of War"
Interesting that Theresa May has rejected appearing on Andrew Marr for her first interview in the New Year, as tradition has it, and has agreed to appear on Sophy Ridge of Sky's first programme at 10.00am on Sunday
Also I believe that TM will come out forcefully with her plan with taking back border control as a red line by the end of the month and challenge the Country to back her
Who says that appearing on Andrew Marr is a tradition? The programme has not been around for all that long.
The first PM interview of the New Year is normally with the BBC - this year it is with Sky and apparently not by accident
That's a big story - every time Farron talks of open borders Vince Cable will be thrown at him.
This fits my earlier narrative that in the last 24 hours we have seen a change across the political spectrum to agreeing that the end of free movement is inevitable and overrides acess to the single market
It depends on what the cost is to end it. At the moment this is just free 'I'm in touch' blandness.
The problem is that we will not know the cost as we will not know the end for years to come.
Therefore the narrative can evolve further. Once something rises to the top of the policy agenda, it can fall back down again in multiple ways. Not all of them involve an instant tipping point towards a new consensus.
In the last thread there was parise for John Major. He is a wise man.
As PM he always deferred making decisions until they needed to be made and said so.
Thereasa May is of a similar style. No need to make decisions about the Brexit route until you have an idea what the other 27 EU members will accept.
"No plan survives contact with the enemy" On Strategy" (1871), "Moltke on the Art of War"
Interesting that Theresa May has rejected appearing on Andrew Marr for her first interview in the New Year, as tradition has it, and has agreed to appear on Sophy Ridge of Sky's first programme at 10.00am on Sunday
Also I believe that TM will come out forcefully with her plan with taking back border control as a red line by the end of the month and challenge the Country to back her
Who says that appearing on Andrew Marr is a tradition? The programme has not been around for all that long.
Well it was a continuation of Breakfast with Frost so it's been going as long as I can remember. According to Wikipedia, John Major appeared on the first Breakfast with Frost in January 1993. I reckon the PM has probably appeared on the first show of the year ever since.
Macron would appear to have some momentum, compared to results from same polling company about 6 weeks ago. Was previously polling mid teens, is now polling high teens to early 20's.
Fillon, on the other hand appears to be slipping back a little. In their previous poll he was polling 30-31 and now he is generally mid twenties in most of the various scenarios.
Against Valls (the likely PS candidate) Macron is polling 16% (with Bayrou) and 18% (without Bayrou) not much different to where he was before as he splits the centrist vote with Valls, he does better if Montebourg or Hamon is PS candidate as they would split the leftwing vote with Melenchon.
Fillon is on 23% with Bayrou as a candidate and 26% without him as a candidate with Valls as PS candidate, Le Pen on 22% and 23% respectively.
Agree that Valls getting through and Bayrou running is the worst case scenario for Macron, but even then he is up two points from the previous poll by the same company. So he at least has some upward momentum. Fillon, however, has dropped 8 points from 31 to 23 in that same scenario.
The gap between Fillon and Macron has closed by 10 points in six weeks. So i would say that the momentum is definitely with Macron and against Fillon. If Bayrou decides not to run or if Valls slips up in the Primary, it will start looking rather tight.
Macron's only chance of getting into round 2 in my view is if Valls loses the primary, so you are right on that but Valls leads the polls for the PS contest at the moment and the primary is just a few weeks away. If Valls does lose the primary and Macron makes it through to round 2 he would have a chance of beating Fillon as the candidate of the centre and left if it is a Macron v Fillon race. However he would also be easier for Le Pen to beat than Fillon as she would then be the candidate of the right and he would be the candidate of the centre left, so a Macron v Le Pen race makes a Le Pen presidency more likely (albeit not quite as likely as a Valls v Le Pen or Melenchon v Le Pen race)
Lists of Labour hopefuls in Copeland are circulating in the press, and all seem to be broadly sensible candidates with a record of campaigning and so on. Yet the bookies and punters still have the Tories as favourites to win an opposition seat. Short of a poll, it appears these odds simply aren't budging. And I'm in the interesting but awkward part of the bet where I am on what I think are good odds but still fearing the penny will drop and I'll realise what I missed.
That's a big story - every time Farron talks of open borders Vince Cable will be thrown at him.
This fits my earlier narrative that in the last 24 hours we have seen a change across the political spectrum to agreeing that the end of free movement is inevitable and overrides acess to the single market
It depends on what the cost is to end it. At the moment this is just free 'I'm in touch' blandness.
The problem is that we will not know the cost as we will not know the end for years to come.
Therefore the narrative can evolve further. Once something rises to the top of the policy agenda, it can fall back down again in multiple ways. Not all of them involve an instant tipping point towards a new consensus.
I do agree with you and that is the nature of economics and politics.
No one can be sure on either side how this will play out but there does seem to be a substantial all party move towards the ending of free movement and as we all know that means restricted access to the single market, unless the EU come to their senses and realise that the UK leaving the EU acrimoniously will damage them in many ways
In the last thread there was parise for John Major. He is a wise man.
As PM he always deferred making decisions until they needed to be made and said so.
Thereasa May is of a similar style. No need to make decisions about the Brexit route until you have an idea what the other 27 EU members will accept.
"No plan survives contact with the enemy" On Strategy" (1871), "Moltke on the Art of War"
Interesting that Theresa May has rejected appearing on Andrew Marr for her first interview in the New Year, as tradition has it, and has agreed to appear on Sophy Ridge of Sky's first programme at 10.00am on Sunday
Also I believe that TM will come out forcefully with her plan with taking back border control as a red line by the end of the month and challenge the Country to back her
Who says that appearing on Andrew Marr is a tradition? The programme has not been around for all that long.
The first PM interview of the New Year is normally with the BBC - this year it is with Sky and apparently not by accident
Other PMs have done it with 'The World This Weekend'.
Scotland has hardly any e.u migration compared to England and her only policy is to be as different to England as she can get away with to reach her ends of leaving the U.K, and Farron is only aiming to gain seats where there are large number of posh Remoaners. Neither are aiming to become PM like Corbyn.
Lists of Labour hopefuls in Copeland are circulating in the press, and all seem to be broadly sensible candidates with a record of campaigning and so on. Yet the bookies and punters still have the Tories as favourites to win an opposition seat. Short of a poll, it appears these odds simply aren't budging. And I'm in the interesting but awkward part of the bet where I am on what I think are good odds but still fearing the penny will drop and I'll realise what I missed.
On the latest Yougov poll the Tories would win Copeland by about 2%
In the last thread there was parise for John Major. He is a wise man.
As PM he always deferred making decisions until they needed to be made and said so.
Thereasa May is of a similar style. No need to make decisions about the Brexit route until you have an idea what the other 27 EU members will accept.
"No plan survives contact with the enemy" On Strategy" (1871), "Moltke on the Art of War"
Interesting that Theresa May has rejected appearing on Andrew Marr for her first interview in the New Year, as tradition has it, and has agreed to appear on Sophy Ridge of Sky's first programme at 10.00am on Sunday
Also I believe that TM will come out forcefully with her plan with taking back border control as a red line by the end of the month and challenge the Country to back her
Who says that appearing on Andrew Marr is a tradition? The programme has not been around for all that long.
The first PM interview of the New Year is normally with the BBC - this year it is with Sky and apparently not by accident
I thought you were getting upset with the Sky news coverage ? Maybe Mrs Doubtfire wants to keep in with uncle rupee.
Lists of Labour hopefuls in Copeland are circulating in the press, and all seem to be broadly sensible candidates with a record of campaigning and so on. Yet the bookies and punters still have the Tories as favourites to win an opposition seat. Short of a poll, it appears these odds simply aren't budging. And I'm in the interesting but awkward part of the bet where I am on what I think are good odds but still fearing the penny will drop and I'll realise what I missed.
There's no inside information here - people just won't vote for Corbyn's candidate with Corbyn's policies in this seat in the way that they support 'Labour' as a tag.
Everything can go wrong for Labour on candidate selection.
The big issue for me in Copeland is that there could be all sorts of runners. Suppose for example that David Milliband decided to run as 'Independent Labour' - who knows.
With the right candidate Labour are home and dry. I'm almost sure that they will run 'not-the-right-candiate' though.
Interesting intervention from Uncle Vince on immigration. Sounds as if he wants to decrease it from Europe so it can be increased from more exotic climes. Rubbing the Right's nose in diversity?
As a liberal economist, I welcome freer trade and globalisation in general; and as a political liberal I oppose attempts to fence people in. [...] I have serious doubts that EU free movement is tenable or even desirable. First, the freedom is not a universal right, but selective. It does not apply to Indians, Jamaicans, Americans or Australians.
Moreover it will also bring about a united Ireland:
The permeability of the Irish border must lead to a united Ireland in Europe.
Macron would appear to have some momentum, compared to results from same polling company about 6 weeks ago. Was previously polling mid teens, is now polling high teens to early 20's.
Fillon, on the other hand appears to be slipping back a little. In their previous poll he was polling 30-31 and now he is generally mid twenties in most of the various scenarios.
Against Valls (the likely PS candidate) Macron is polling 16% (with Bayrou) and 18% (without Bayrou) not much different to where he was before as he splits the centrist vote with Valls, he does better if Montebourg or Hamon is PS candidate as they would split the leftwing vote with Melenchon.
Fillon is on 23% with Bayrou as a candidate and 26% without him as a candidate with Valls as PS candidate, Le Pen on 22% and 23% respectively.
Agree that Valls getting through and Bayrou running is the worst case scenario for Macron, but even then he is up two points from the previous poll by the same company. So he at least has some upward momentum. Fillon, however, has dropped 8 points from 31 to 23 in that same scenario.
The gap between Fillon and Macron has closed by 10 points in six weeks. So i would say that the momentum is definitely with Macron and against Fillon. If Bayrou decides not to run or if Valls slips up in the Primary, it will start looking rather tight.
Macron's only chance of getting into round 2 in my view is if Valls loses the primary, so you are right on that but Valls leads the polls for the PS contest at the moment and the primary is just a few weeks away. If Valls does lose the primary and Macron makes it through to round 2 he would have a chance of beating Fillon as the candidate of the centre and left if it is a Macron v Fillon race. However he would also be easier for Le Pen to beat than Fillon as she would then be the candidate of the right and he would be the candidate of the centre left, so a Macron v Le Pen race makes a Le Pen presidency more likely (albeit not quite as likely as a Valls v Le Pen or Melenchon v Le Pen race)
I reckon if Fillon keeps hemorrhaging support the way he has done in the past month or so, it won't matter if Valls is in it or not. But we shall see.
In the last thread there was parise for John Major. He is a wise man.
As PM he always deferred making decisions until they needed to be made and said so.
Thereasa May is of a similar style. No need to make decisions about the Brexit route until you have an idea what the other 27 EU members will accept.
"No plan survives contact with the enemy" On Strategy" (1871), "Moltke on the Art of War"
Interesting that Theresa May has rejected appearing on Andrew Marr for her first interview in the New Year, as tradition has it, and has agreed to appear on Sophy Ridge of Sky's first programme at 10.00am on Sunday
Also I believe that TM will come out forcefully with her plan with taking back border control as a red line by the end of the month and challenge the Country to back her
Who says that appearing on Andrew Marr is a tradition? The programme has not been around for all that long.
The first PM interview of the New Year is normally with the BBC - this year it is with Sky and apparently not by accident
I thought you were getting upset with the Sky news coverage ? Maybe Mrs Doubtfire wants to keep in with uncle rupee.
Sky are just dreadful at present with 24/7 misery and doom mongering.
However I am interested to see how Sophy Ridge manages what is probably a more testing interview for her than TM
Lists of Labour hopefuls in Copeland are circulating in the press, and all seem to be broadly sensible candidates with a record of campaigning and so on. Yet the bookies and punters still have the Tories as favourites to win an opposition seat. Short of a poll, it appears these odds simply aren't budging. And I'm in the interesting but awkward part of the bet where I am on what I think are good odds but still fearing the penny will drop and I'll realise what I missed.
There's no inside information here - people just won't vote for Corbyn's candidate with Corbyn's policies in this seat in the way that they support 'Labour' as a tag.
Everything can go wrong for Labour on candidate selection.
The big issue for me in Copeland is that there could be all sorts of runners. Suppose for example that David Milliband decided to run as 'Independent Labour' - who knows.
With the right candidate Labour are home and dry. I'm almost sure that they will run 'not-the-right-candiate' though.
I think we can rule out David Miliband giving up his half a million salary to run as an independent Labour candidate in Copeland!
Macron would appear to have some momentum, compared to results from same polling company about 6 weeks ago. Was previously polling mid teens, is now polling high teens to early 20's.
Fillon, on the other hand appears to be slipping back a little. In their previous poll he was polling 30-31 and now he is generally mid twenties in most of the various scenarios.
Against Valls (the likely PS candidate) Macron is polling 16% (with Bayrou) and 18% (without Bayrou) not much different to where he was before as he splits the centrist vote with Valls, he does better if Montebourg or Hamon is PS candidate as they would split the leftwing vote with Melenchon.
Fillon is on 23% with Bayrou as a candidate and 26% without him as a candidate with Valls as PS candidate, Le Pen on 22% and 23% respectively.
Agree that Valls getting through and Bayrou running is the worst case scenario for Macron, but even then he is up two points from the previous poll by the same company. So he at least has some upward momentum. Fillon, however, has dropped 8 points from 31 to 23 in that same scenario.
The gap between Fillon and Macron has closed by 10 points in six weeks. So i would say that the momentum is definitely with Macron and against Fillon. If Bayrou decides not to run or if Valls slips up in the Primary, it will start looking rather tight.
Macron's only chance of getting into round 2 in my view is if Valls loses the primary, so you are right on that but Valls leads the polls for the PS contest at the moment and the primary is just a few weeks away. If Valls does lose the primary and Macron makes it through to round 2 he would have a chance of beating Fillon as the candidate of the centre and left if it is a Macron v Fillon race. However he would also be easier for Le Pen to beat than Fillon as she would then be the candidate of the right and he would be the candidate of the centre left, so a Macron v Le Pen race makes a Le Pen presidency more likely (albeit not quite as likely as a Valls v Le Pen or Melenchon v Le Pen race)
I reckon if Fillon keeps hemorrhaging support the way he has done in the past month or so, it won't matter if Valls is in it or not. But we shall see.
Fillon is still over 20% in every scenario in that poll, without Valls Macron is below 20%, plus Valls will likely get a small bounce once he becomes candidate
Inch by inch we're moving to an understanding that the objectives of Brexit can be delivered for England and Wales only.
My wife of 54 years is a Scot from the North East fishing communities and is proud to be Scots and British but in common with many in the North East of Scotland wants out of the EU now the decision has been made.
You may well find that your worst fears for Scotland do not happen and that the freedom to trade world wide will present huge export opportunities for Scotland
In the last thread there was parise for John Major. He is a wise man.
As PM he always deferred making decisions until they needed to be made and said so.
Thereasa May is of a similar style. No need to make decisions about the Brexit route until you have an idea what the other 27 EU members will accept.
"No plan survives contact with the enemy" On Strategy" (1871), "Moltke on the Art of War"
Interesting that Theresa May has rejected appearing on Andrew Marr for her first interview in the New Year, as tradition has it, and has agreed to appear on Sophy Ridge of Sky's first programme at 10.00am on Sunday
Also I believe that TM will come out forcefully with her plan with taking back border control as a red line by the end of the month and challenge the Country to back her
Who says that appearing on Andrew Marr is a tradition? The programme has not been around for all that long.
The first PM interview of the New Year is normally with the BBC - this year it is with Sky and apparently not by accident
I thought you were getting upset with the Sky news coverage ? Maybe Mrs Doubtfire wants to keep in with uncle rupee.
Sky are just dreadful at present with 24/7 misery and doom mongering.
However I am interested to see how Sophy Ridge manages what is probably a more testing interview for her than TM
I would agree their tone at the moment is on the misery and doom side.Today it was rising fuel prices and inflation. I do not know Sophy Ridge so will see. I never thought Andrew Marr was a tough interviewer .However Eddie Mair covered the show one day and was excellent gave Boris a real tough one.I wish the BBC would use him more on TV rather than just radio 4 at 5pm
Inch by inch we're moving to an understanding that the objectives of Brexit can be delivered for England and Wales only.
Yes, sounds as if Vince is being scheming and divisive - using Brexit as a tool to destroy the UK and humiliate and marginalize England. What a devious anti-English rotter!
Inch by inch we're moving to an understanding that the objectives of Brexit can be delivered for England and Wales only.
Yes, sounds as if Vince is being scheming and divisive - using Brexit as a tool to destroy the UK and humiliate and marginalize England. What a devious anti-English rotter!
The latest Opinium had Scotland and England backing soft Brexit but Wales backing hard Brexit
Inch by inch we're moving to an understanding that the objectives of Brexit can be delivered for England and Wales only.
Yes, sounds as if Vince is being scheming and divisive - using Brexit as a tool to destroy the UK and humiliate and marginalize England. What a devious anti-English rotter!
Some time in early 2018 people will start saying how much more influence the British Isles would have with 4 Commissioners instead of 2 and 4 votes in the Council.
I'm finding Mr Brind's thread leader article a bit hard to decipher. He quotes Mr McCluskey thus:
“Let’s suppose we are not having a snap election. It buys into this question of what happens if we get to 2019 and opinion polls are still awful.The truth is everybody would examine that situation, including Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell …. These two are not egomaniacs, they are not desperate to cling on to power for power’s sake.”
And the article ends by saying If McCluskey, Abbott and Livingstone are worried Corbyn should be too.
This seems to suggest that Messrs Corbyn and McDonnell have the same objectives as Ms Abbott & Messrs McCluskey & Livingstone.
There are at least two different levels of 'power' here. From what I've read, Messrs Corbyn & McDonnell have a definite objective in retaining power over the Labour party, which may well supersede their desire for power over the country.
The other three may well be more focussed on the objective of electing a Labour government as soon as possible.
Mr Corbyn has the membership to back him up. I don't see him going anywhere until he's achieved his ends with the Labour party. Grasping at power over the UK can wait until he knows the party will carry on in his own political image. Time enough to set up an electable leader then.
Notice the RMT have accepted an offer from Chris Grayling of direct talks. Seems a sensible move but think it may have been the PM who pushed Grayling who seems too laid back on the issue of Southern trains
Comments
Would it? Unless Trump and/or the Republicans were hacking the Democrats or put the Russians or whoever up to it, I don't see what difference it makes. Before the election we were told that the revelations about the fixing of the Democrat Primary would make no difference. Now we're being told it cost them the White House.
She needs to make her end of March deadline though, or else engineer a general election soon after.
Edit: @Alanbrooke also makes the same point below.
About 2-3 months behind thinking on PB [and whoever originally made the quote].
I believe everyone should hold fire on Theresa May until the Supreme Court's decision is known and she has delivered her big speech towards the end of the month.
I expect her to have a robust way forward that will address the Court's judgement and absolutely stop free movement, no matter what the consequences are.
Interesting that Chuka Umunna's cross party committee today is talking of visa systems and requiring all immigrants to be able to speak English or take compulsory lessons on arriving in the UK.
Also McCluskey's challenger in Unite is demanding the end of free movement.
The narrative is moving to full border control and if necessary at the expense of the single market
The unions' best option is to sit tight, ride out the storm, and hope that an opportunity at some point presents itself for Labour to be salvaged, before it crumbles away to nothing. Of course, some Labour MPs may be rather less circumspect about defecting or giving up - rather than spending however many more years gathering dust on the Commons backbenches, whilst waiting for the electorate to hand them their P45s.
The left will not admit it but Hillary Clinton was the disaster, almost any other Democrat would have won easily
Edited extra bit: nevertheless, cheers for posting it. Breaking [or not, in this case] F1 news is always of interest.
Anyway, I must be off.
Sky are also promoting the Prime Minister's first new year broadcast with Sophy on Sunday. This is a big moment not just for the PM but most certainly for Sophy Ridge. It will be a fascinating interview
Even if it were to be offered by the EU27, which I suspect it probably wouldn't be in any case, the UK will not be doing a Norway. The EEA is off the table. I daresay that the Government may attempt to negotiate a transitional arrangement, as a bridge to a full free trade agreement in the future, and I think that the Government would be prepared to accept some EU obligations and to make budget contributions during that time. However, the end point of the process already seems clear enough to me: Leave means Leave, even if Ukip can and will complain that it isn't coming quickly enough.
Everyone says so.
There was one referendum for one country in which each elector had one vote. Neither Scotland nor any of the other parts of the country that voted Remain are entitled to special treatment just because a majority of voters in those areas were on the losing side this time. Those of us inhabiting parts of the country that never voted in Labour MPs, yet who were expected to put up with thirteen long years of Blair and Brown, sure as Hell never expected or received consolation prizes. And we would've got pretty short shrift if we had asked for them.
Your critique of the "Union of Equals" does, of course, have some merit. Through its incessant moaning, Scotland has secured inflated levels of public spending and an enormously powerful devolved legislature. Wales, which is much poorer, doesn't get anything like as much money per head as Scotland does. The English taxpayer subsidises the entire merry-go-round and has no devolved Parliament of his or her own, either.
Poor, defenceless, hard done-by wee Scotland. How they live with this constant diet of brutal discrimination and oppression I cannot fathom.
https://www.nsandi.com/interest-rates
30,000 to 1 1.25% All prizes are tax-free
I need any account paying 2.568%+ or its not worth it given my mortgage is 1.89% + base tax free, and yes I do fully intend to earn the £1000 interest PSA tax free this tax year.
Just annoying that risk free FSCS protected 4 and 5% seem to have gone forever. The Tesco offer with £6k between 2 accounts will net me £25.92, hardly worth it
I'm in TSB already so no hassle on that one to shift things about. Lloyds sadly ending tommorow.
*Though tbf that's pretty much SOP for all their other Brexit pronouncements.
I'll shed few tears for either the Single Market or Freedom of Movement - perhaps I should join the Vince Cable Party.
None of this is cost, risk or problem free, however.
This fits my earlier narrative that in the last 24 hours we have seen a change across the political spectrum to agreeing that the end of free movement is inevitable and overrides acess to the single market
If May had gone to the public and said Freedom of Movement would be retained, she would be facing a huge political backlash. The end of the Single Market (which I personally welcome) is a more diffuse issue for most people and doesn't directly impact though I imagine there will be those who will be directly and seriously affected.
The political reality of June 23rd has left May with no option - as for Farron, he will come to represent those for whom Freedom of Movement was less of an issue and the Single Market a boon. There is a constituency for that - possibly not a large one but not insignificant. The Conservatives, Labour (perhaps) and UKIP will be on the side of those concerned by immigration.
Materials are excellent, tutoring very good and available by email as are other students in your tutorial group. Also harder (and therefore better) than you might first think. OU students have among the highest ratings for their university in the UK
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
Macron would appear to have some momentum, compared to results from same polling company about 6 weeks ago. Was previously polling mid teens, is now polling high teens to early 20's.
Fillon, on the other hand appears to be slipping back a little. In their previous poll he was polling 30-31 and now he is generally mid twenties in most of the various scenarios.
Further evidence that people who actually bother to vote in General Elections rather approve of Brexit. And, it would seem, are growing stronger in their approval over time. Restricting immigration also trumps single market access amongst all social groups, and in all regions except Scotland. And even there free movement is only ahead by 4%.
Opposition both to Remain and FoM is, unsurprisingly, highest amongst C2DE's, who are - or at least were - meant to provide most of the cannon fodder for Labour at election time. Poor Jeremy. It would take a heart of stone not to laugh.
Fillon is on 23% with Bayrou as a candidate and 26% without him as a candidate with Valls as PS candidate, Le Pen on 22% and 23% respectively.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/01/why-its-time-end-eu-free-movement
The gap between Fillon and Macron has closed by 10 points in six weeks. So i would say that the momentum is definitely with Macron and against Fillon. If Bayrou decides not to run or if Valls slips up in the Primary, it will start looking rather tight.
No one can be sure on either side how this will play out but there does seem to be a substantial all party move towards the ending of free movement and as we all know that means restricted access to the single market, unless the EU come to their senses and realise that the UK leaving the EU acrimoniously will damage them in many ways
Everything can go wrong for Labour on candidate selection.
The big issue for me in Copeland is that there could be all sorts of runners. Suppose for example that David Milliband decided to run as 'Independent Labour' - who knows.
With the right candidate Labour are home and dry. I'm almost sure that they will run 'not-the-right-candiate' though.
As a liberal economist, I welcome freer trade and globalisation in general; and as a political liberal I oppose attempts to fence people in. [...] I have serious doubts that EU free movement is tenable or even desirable. First, the freedom is not a universal right, but selective. It does not apply to Indians, Jamaicans, Americans or Australians.
Moreover it will also bring about a united Ireland:
The permeability of the Irish border must lead to a united Ireland in Europe.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/01/why-its-time-end-eu-free-movement
What's going on here?
However I am interested to see how Sophy Ridge manages what is probably a more testing interview for her than TM
You may well find that your worst fears for Scotland do not happen and that the freedom to trade world wide will present huge export opportunities for Scotland
(These people may be Americans.)
I'm finding Mr Brind's thread leader article a bit hard to decipher. He quotes Mr McCluskey thus:
“Let’s suppose we are not having a snap election. It buys into this question of what happens if we get to 2019 and opinion polls are still awful.The truth is everybody would examine that situation, including Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell …. These two are not egomaniacs, they are not desperate to cling on to power for power’s sake.”
And the article ends by saying If McCluskey, Abbott and Livingstone are worried Corbyn should be too.
This seems to suggest that Messrs Corbyn and McDonnell have the same objectives as Ms Abbott & Messrs McCluskey & Livingstone.
There are at least two different levels of 'power' here. From what I've read, Messrs Corbyn & McDonnell have a definite objective in retaining power over the Labour party, which may well supersede their desire for power over the country.
The other three may well be more focussed on the objective of electing a Labour government as soon as possible.
Mr Corbyn has the membership to back him up. I don't see him going anywhere until he's achieved his ends with the Labour party. Grasping at power over the UK can wait until he knows the party will carry on in his own political image. Time enough to set up an electable leader then.