Thinking of University Challenge, Oxford and Cambridge ought to have primaries, to pick which team they want to send through to the competition. Or else rebrand the programme "Oxbridge College Challenge".
It's a design decision. Oxford has lost a quiz match once this millennium I believe, to Cambridge. Not sure it competes hugely much though.
Given the best universities in the country are Oxford and Cambridge (with the PPE course provided by the former but not the latter explaining its disproportionate share of PMs) it is not surprising Oxford is overrepresented in election winning MPs (though Chamberlain went to Birmingham and Brown Edinburgh albeit neither won an election). However I don't see why an election winning non-Oxbridge PM would be a defeat for the elite for example if an Eton and Bristol educated City Lawyer beat a comprehensive and Oxford educated social worker would that be a defeat for the elite? I think not.
Oxbridge conspiracy theorists would point to the storms of sneering abuse that have greeted non-Oxford leaders such as Kinnock, Major and Brown; not to mention Jeremy Corbyn. And a quick glance at wikipedia tells me Andrea Leadsom was a Warwick graduate up against Oxford's Theresa May.
True though Major beat the Etonian and Oxford Hurd and the Shrewsbury and Oxford Heseltine. Churchill was non Oxbridge too but he was an old Harrovian which meant he still had half a foot in the door. The snobbiest of the elite see you as a full member of the club if you went to public school and Oxbridge, half a member of the club if you went to either and not in the club if you went to neither
In Churchill's case, being the grandson of a duke and the son of a Chancellor probably meant that he had more than half a foot in the door.
I don't think Randolph Churchill was a popular character with 'The Elite',. WLSC was a populist or celebrity politician who rode on the back of his 'war exploits' into the Commons.
He might not have been popular but he was still One Of Us. Winston might well have ended up where he did anyway through sheer force of personality but his background was hardly a hindrance.
Thinking of University Challenge, Oxford and Cambridge ought to have primaries, to pick which team they want to send through to the competition. Or else rebrand the programme "Oxbridge College Challenge".
It irks me that Durham - which is also Collegiate only has one team. I think there is an internal competition between the colleges to pick the best college team rather than the best Durham University team.
Declaration of interest.
Went to Durham High School for girls, The Chorister School for boys, Durham School (at the time for boys) and my son went to Collingwood College, Durham.
Thinking of University Challenge, Oxford and Cambridge ought to have primaries, to pick which team they want to send through to the competition. Or else rebrand the programme "Oxbridge College Challenge".
We do. All thirty colleges at Oxford apply for a handful of places - the exact amount determined by scores and, frankly, telegenics.
No wonder the economics profession 'is in crisis' (according to Andy Haldane):
There is a lot that could be done to lift the performance of under-performing companies, [Andy Haldane] says. As one example, he says it is easy to borrow against physical property, but much harder to borrow against intellectual property.
Only an economist could be stupid enough not to realise that there's a very good reason for that!
Thinking of University Challenge, Oxford and Cambridge ought to have primaries, to pick which team they want to send through to the competition. Or else rebrand the programme "Oxbridge College Challenge".
We do. All thirty colleges at Oxford apply for a handful of places - the exact amount determined by scores and, frankly, telegenics.
I still weep about not making it on TV despite being in the BNC team 3 times...
No wonder the economics profession 'is in crisis' (according to Andy Haldane):
There is a lot that could be done to lift the performance of under-performing companies, [Andy Haldane] says. As one example, he says it is easy to borrow against physical property, but much harder to borrow against intellectual property.
Only an economist could be stupid enough not to realise that there's a very good reason for that!
- no obvious alternative to Merkel is emerging. Did the weekly (ReWe) supermarket shop for a friend - prices are generally similar to e.g. Tesco, except fresh fruit out of season (much more expensive - e.g. blackberries £3.80 vs £2 in UK) and general absence of cheapest variations - you'd struggle to find cheap cuts of meat, non-free range eggs, etc. Much less microwaveable stuff (which is my own staple diet) - emphasis very heavily on "natural freshly prepared food".
The Oxford (With very occasional Cambridge and a couple of Edinburgh/Glasgow or none) sequence continues right back to Sir Robert Walpole.
Previous to that it seems the most important non royal position was the Lord High Treasurer, which seems to have been related to the church in the early days - (Various Bishops seemed to get the position, the first of which was Nigel of Ely...).
Before that position was created the key figure I suppose was the Archbishop of Canterbury, and that gets you back to St Augustine in ~ 600.
Given Oxford, Cambridge, St Andrew's, Aberdeen, Edinburgh and Glasgow were the only universities in the UK until Durham was founded in 1832 that is not surprising
You're incorrect. I'd check again if I were you.
Edit: someone's noted TCD but you might also look at London.
UCL was also early nineteenth century
You're moving towards accuracy.
UCL is my university: the Godless College of Gower Street. A whirl of metropolitan sexiness and very hard drugs. We look down on the country bumpkins of Oxbridge.
Plus we have the corpse of our founder, philosopher Jeremy Bentham, embalmed and kept in a box in the University cloisters, and sometimes he is wheeled into meetings of the College Council. Beat that.
- no obvious alternative to Merkel is emerging. Did the weekly (ReWe) supermarket shop for a friend - prices are generally similar to e.g. Tesco, except fresh fruit out of season (much more expensive - e.g. blackberries £3.80 vs £2 in UK) and general absence of cheapest variations - you'd struggle to find cheap cuts of meat, non-free range eggs, etc. Much less microwaveable stuff (which is my own staple diet) - emphasis very heavily on "natural freshly prepared food".
I'm sure there were barrels of sourkraut and loads of wurst - German fast food
There's a great quote about laser weapons during the star wars program in the 80s. Sadly, I cannot remember if it is fictional or real (I *think* the latter):
The military were trying to explain directed energy weapons to some congressmen. One of the politicians, obviously versed in too much science fiction, asked: "Could this weapon vaporise me?"
"Sure," one of the militarymen replied. "If you stood still for a couple of years."
The Oxford (With very occasional Cambridge and a couple of Edinburgh/Glasgow or none) sequence continues right back to Sir Robert Walpole.
Previous to that it seems the most important non royal position was the Lord High Treasurer, which seems to have been related to the church in the early days - (Various Bishops seemed to get the position, the first of which was Nigel of Ely...).
Before that position was created the key figure I suppose was the Archbishop of Canterbury, and that gets you back to St Augustine in ~ 600.
Given Oxford, Cambridge, St Andrew's, Aberdeen, Edinburgh and Glasgow were the only universities in the UK until Durham was founded in 1832 that is not surprising
You're incorrect. I'd check again if I were you.
Edit: someone's noted TCD but you might also look at London.
UCL was also early nineteenth century
You're moving towards accuracy.
UCL is my university: the Godless College of Gower Street. A whirl of metropolitan sexiness and very hard drugs. We look down on the country bumpkins of Oxbridge.
Plus we have the corpse of our founder, philosopher Jeremy Bentham, embalmed and kept in a box in the University cloisters, and sometimes he is wheeled into meetings of the College Council. Beat that.
Thinking of University Challenge, Oxford and Cambridge ought to have primaries, to pick which team they want to send through to the competition. Or else rebrand the programme "Oxbridge College Challenge".
We do. All thirty colleges at Oxford apply for a handful of places - the exact amount determined by scores and, frankly, telegenics.
I still weep about not making it on TV despite being in the BNC team 3 times...
The year after I retired to our second team, the first team got on telly for the first time in ages.
That's the bit I always chuckle when its on social media about XXX from YYY being a bit intense. You lot didn't see the people that didn't get on telly ...
The Oxford (With very occasional Cambridge and a couple of Edinburgh/Glasgow or none) sequence continues right back to Sir Robert Walpole.
Previous to that it seems the most important non royal position was the Lord High Treasurer, which seems to have been related to the church in the early days - (Various Bishops seemed to get the position, the first of which was Nigel of Ely...).
Before that position was created the key figure I suppose was the Archbishop of Canterbury, and that gets you back to St Augustine in ~ 600.
Given Oxford, Cambridge, St Andrew's, Aberdeen, Edinburgh and Glasgow were the only universities in the UK until Durham was founded in 1832 that is not surprising
You're incorrect. I'd check again if I were you.
Edit: someone's noted TCD but you might also look at London.
UCL was also early nineteenth century
You're moving towards accuracy.
UCL is my university: the Godless College of Gower Street. A whirl of metropolitan sexiness and very hard drugs. We look down on the country bumpkins of Oxbridge.
Plus we have the corpse of our founder, philosopher Jeremy Bentham, embalmed and kept in a box in the University cloisters, and sometimes he is wheeled into meetings of the College Council. Beat that.
The wheeling-him-in-to-meetings thing is an urban legend apparently (according to a friend of mine who used to work there). A true story though is that they keep of book in which the UCL academics must declare any relationships they've had with students - to guard against conflicts of interest when marking etc. Apparently the randier dons use it as a guide for finding out who the 'easier' students are, and make their lascivious move.
You haven't lived until you've heard the Nine Inch Nails/Carly Rae Jepson mash up of Head Like A Hole and Call Me Maybe, imaginatively titled 'Call Me A Hole'
Mr. Jessop, not up on the tech, but I wonder if it is a laser, or a maser.
I'm pretty sure (citation needed) that all the SDI Star Wars work was on visible-light or near visible-light lasers, not masers.
I might be wrong though, and something stirring in the back of my mind makes me think there were also x-ray energy devices experimented with at the time,
Sadly it's not my field, and Mrs J (who might know) is at work.
Thinking of University Challenge, Oxford and Cambridge ought to have primaries, to pick which team they want to send through to the competition. Or else rebrand the programme "Oxbridge College Challenge".
It irks me that Durham - which is also Collegiate only has one team. I think there is an internal competition between the colleges to pick the best college team rather than the best Durham University team.
Declaration of interest.
Went to Durham High School for girls, The Chorister School for boys, Durham School (at the time for boys) and my son went to Collingwood College, Durham.
Mr. Jessop, not up on the tech, but I wonder if it is a laser, or a maser.
I'm pretty sure (citation needed) that all the SDI Star Wars work was on visible-light or near visible-light lasers, not masers.
I might be wrong though, and something stirring in the back of my mind makes me think there were also x-ray energy devices experimented with at the time,
Sadly it's not my field, and Mrs J (who might know) is at work.
Yes, there was great interest in a nuclear pumped X-Ray laser to be used as one of the Star Wars defence mechanisms
There's a great quote about laser weapons during the star wars program in the 80s. Sadly, I cannot remember if it is fictional or real (I *think* the latter):
The military were trying to explain directed energy weapons to some congressmen. One of the politicians, obviously versed in too much science fiction, asked: "Could this weapon vaporise me?"
"Sure," one of the militarymen replied. "If you stood still for a couple of years."
Lasers have improved a little since then ...
The US Army is very innovative. They carry out research into such tactics as walking through Walls, killing people using thought transference, bending spoons, using cats as assassins, and casting spells against their enemies.
I've just spent three and a half hours at a children's soft play (aka baby cage)
I was standing against a wall keeping my eye on the little 'un when something whacks me right in the tackle. I double over, and when I open my eyes a cherubic little boy, blonde, not more than four years of age, is aiming another punch.
I am not exactly a revolutionary socialist but reading a table like that could make you one, it really could.
Quite.
I meet lots of Oxford types in my line of work. A significant proportion of them are w*nkers. And quite a few of the rest have about as much common-sense as my front door mat.
Thinking of University Challenge, Oxford and Cambridge ought to have primaries, to pick which team they want to send through to the competition. Or else rebrand the programme "Oxbridge College Challenge".
We do. All thirty colleges at Oxford apply for a handful of places - the exact amount determined by scores and, frankly, telegenics.
I still weep about not making it on TV despite being in the BNC team 3 times...
The year after I retired to our second team, the first team got on telly for the first time in ages.
That's the bit I always chuckle when its on social media about XXX from YYY being a bit intense. You lot didn't see the people that didn't get on telly ...
I feared, after the event, that a similar 'Mortimer is too boring' veto may have prevented the team making it.
PB would have a fantastic Uni Challenge team....
TSE's pop knowledge, RCS on everything mathematical, JJ for sciences and Mr Dancer for historical knowledge.
Thinking of University Challenge, Oxford and Cambridge ought to have primaries, to pick which team they want to send through to the competition. Or else rebrand the programme "Oxbridge College Challenge".
We do. All thirty colleges at Oxford apply for a handful of places - the exact amount determined by scores and, frankly, telegenics.
I still weep about not making it on TV despite being in the BNC team 3 times...
The year after I retired to our second team, the first team got on telly for the first time in ages.
That's the bit I always chuckle when its on social media about XXX from YYY being a bit intense. You lot didn't see the people that didn't get on telly ...
I feared, after the event, that a similar 'Mortimer is too boring' veto may have prevented the team making it.
PB would have a fantastic Uni Challenge team....
TSE's pop knowledge, RCS on everything mathematical, JJ for sciences and Mr Dancer for historical knowledge.
You don't need Mr Dancer for historical knowledge when you've got me on the team.
There's a great quote about laser weapons during the star wars program in the 80s. Sadly, I cannot remember if it is fictional or real (I *think* the latter):
The military were trying to explain directed energy weapons to some congressmen. One of the politicians, obviously versed in too much science fiction, asked: "Could this weapon vaporise me?"
"Sure," one of the militarymen replied. "If you stood still for a couple of years."
Lasers have improved a little since then ...
The US Army is very innovative. They carry out research into such tactics as walking through Walls, killing people using thought transference, bending spoons, using cats as assassins, and casting spells against their enemies.
Very entertaining film, The Men who Stare at Goats.
Thinking of University Challenge, Oxford and Cambridge ought to have primaries, to pick which team they want to send through to the competition. Or else rebrand the programme "Oxbridge College Challenge".
It irks me that Durham - which is also Collegiate only has one team. I think there is an internal competition between the colleges to pick the best college team rather than the best Durham University team.
Declaration of interest.
Went to Durham High School for girls, The Chorister School for boys, Durham School (at the time for boys) and my son went to Collingwood College, Durham.
I've just spent three and a half hours at a children's soft play (aka baby cage)
I was standing against a wall keeping my eye on the little 'un when something whacks me right in the tackle. I double over, and when I open my eyes a cherubic little boy, blonde, not more than four years of age, is aiming another punch.
There's a great quote about laser weapons during the star wars program in the 80s. Sadly, I cannot remember if it is fictional or real (I *think* the latter):
The military were trying to explain directed energy weapons to some congressmen. One of the politicians, obviously versed in too much science fiction, asked: "Could this weapon vaporise me?"
"Sure," one of the militarymen replied. "If you stood still for a couple of years."
Lasers have improved a little since then ...
The US Army is very innovative. They carry out research into such tactics as walking through Walls, killing people using thought transference, bending spoons, using cats as assassins, and casting spells against their enemies.
Very entertaining film, The Men who Stare at Goats.
Not to mention using the music from Barney the Dinosaur to break captives.
Thinking of University Challenge, Oxford and Cambridge ought to have primaries, to pick which team they want to send through to the competition. Or else rebrand the programme "Oxbridge College Challenge".
It irks me that Durham - which is also Collegiate only has one team. I think there is an internal competition between the colleges to pick the best college team rather than the best Durham University team.
Declaration of interest.
Went to Durham High School for girls, The Chorister School for boys, Durham School (at the time for boys) and my son went to Collingwood College, Durham.
Which bathroom did you use?
The male one - Durham High School for Girls took boys in kindergarten, year 1 and year 2 in the 1960s.
On topic, you could argue the greatest Prime Minister we never had went to Cambridge.
Ken Clarke.
A table of some general election losers makes bad reading for Oxford.
Oxford: Miliband, Hague, Callaghan (applied) Wilson (twice) Heath (three times)
Cambridge: Howard
Others: Brown, Kinnock,
NG: Major
So Oxford leads the losers table.
As a Cambridge man I'd love to agree but how do you square this with the all political careers [ especially those of PMs end in failure?
I think power becomes an addiction, you could argue in the last hundred years no Prime Minister left office at a time of their own choosing, Wilson maybe, but I think he knew he was developing Alzheimer's.
Had Dave won the referendum, he would have been a rarity, a PM choosing to stand down at the time of his choosing.
I want to lay Le Pen. Given she (personally) didn't even come close in the most FN friendly region of France against an insipid LR candidate in the immediate aftermath of the Bataclan and Nice attaks, I can't see how she can possibly win the Presidency absent a massive shock.
In the presidential election, turnout will probably exceed 80% in both rounds.
I think that rather proves my point. Let's just assume that all the 20% increase in turnout between the regionals and the presidential goes to the Front National. That would put Le Pen in the lead, but only by a relatively modest margin, perhaps 56:44. (Her vote would increase to about 1.8m.)
If she only wins Haut de France by that margin, she probably loses the Presidential race by close to twenty points.
More like six points.
Working:
2015 regional, R2 HDF: Le Pen 42%, turnout 61%; whole country: Le Pen 27%, turnout 58%
2017 presidential, R2 assume turnout 80% and all regional abstainers back Le Pen HdF: Le Pen: 55% = (0.41+(80/61-1))/(1+(80/61-1)) whole country: Le Pen: (0.27+(80/58-1))/(1+(80/58-1)) = 47%
I agree she needs to win votes from those who voted for other parties in the regionals.
It's interesting that in the regional in HdF, which contains the Calais "jungle", a lot of people who abstained in R1 turned out to vote for her opponent in R2.
But that region may not be her best in the presidential. In 2012, Hollande won both rounds in both Nord and Pas de Calais. Most of the refugees there are from black Africa, Afghanistan, etc. Many don't speak French and don't want to live in France. The issue there overlaps with multiculturalism but it isn't the same. HdF wasn't even the FN's best regional result in 2015. They won 45% in R2 in Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, which includes Marseilles, for a list headed by Marion.
There's a great quote about laser weapons during the star wars program in the 80s. Sadly, I cannot remember if it is fictional or real (I *think* the latter):
The military were trying to explain directed energy weapons to some congressmen. One of the politicians, obviously versed in too much science fiction, asked: "Could this weapon vaporise me?"
"Sure," one of the militarymen replied. "If you stood still for a couple of years."
Lasers have improved a little since then ...
The US Army is very innovative. They carry out research into such tactics as walking through Walls, killing people using thought transference, bending spoons, using cats as assassins, and casting spells against their enemies.
They are also very big on non lethal weapons and have put a lot of research into them. These include subsonics which literally make you lose control of your bowels, weapons that induce temporary blindness, microwave weapons that make you feel like your skin is on fire as long as it is directed at you and stuff like riot foam (I believe the Japanese are already well advanced with this for policing.
Funnily enough with many of these weapons they would be in breach of the Geneva conventions. It is okay to kill someone but not to make them feel uncomfortable for a while.
The Monaco Grand Prix will be broadcast live on free-to-air television in the UK for the first time in five years as Channel 4 revealed its programme details for the new season.
The terrestrial broadcaster will again show 10 live Formula One races as part of its co-broadcasting deal with Sky Sports, including the British Grand Prix at Silverstone on 16 July. Sky will show all 20 races live.
Channel 4 will also broadcast live for the first time the Russian, Singapore and US grands prix, dropping Spain, Hungary, Italy and Mexico as a result. The channel has also retained the rights to the season-ending Abu Dhabi race.
I've just spent three and a half hours at a children's soft play (aka baby cage)
I was standing against a wall keeping my eye on the little 'un when something whacks me right in the tackle. I double over, and when I open my eyes a cherubic little boy, blonde, not more than four years of age, is aiming another punch.
Everyone says the Euro is too weak for Germany but if that was the case it should be having rabid inflation. Inflation does not seem to be a major German problem. So is the Euro too weak for Germany or is it just right for them and wrong for everyone else?
German CPI is 1.7% vs 1.1% for the EMU, excluding the Germany EMU inflation would be around 0.6%. The monetary policy of the ECB is not suitable for Germany and their economy is showing signs of overheating.
On the left, The Economist on Dave a few months after he became PM, mocked up with a mohican with the headline “Radical Britain: the West’s most daring government”. On the right, The Economist on “Theresa Maybe” this week: “Britain’s indecisive premier”. The Economist might be Remainer whinge-fest at the moment but the new Number 10 has failed to kill this narrative in its first few months…
Hugh Gaitskell might have won in 1964 another Oxford man.However John Smith might also have won in 1997 from Glasgow . It would be good for the Labour legacy and for meritocracy if an Open University graduate made it to PM.
I've just spent three and a half hours at a children's soft play (aka baby cage)
I was standing against a wall keeping my eye on the little 'un when something whacks me right in the tackle. I double over, and when I open my eyes a cherubic little boy, blonde, not more than four years of age, is aiming another punch.
On topic, you could argue the greatest Prime Minister we never had went to Cambridge.
Ken Clarke.
A table of some general election losers makes bad reading for Oxford.
Oxford: Miliband, Hague, Callaghan (applied) Wilson (twice) Heath (three times)
Cambridge: Howard
Others: Brown, Kinnock,
NG: Major
So Oxford leads the losers table.
As a Cambridge man I'd love to agree but how do you square this with the all political careers [ especially those of PMs end in failure?
Surely that is one of the political quotations which sound smart and turn out to be nonsense? All careers end, some with more success than others. Like "power without responsibility – the prerogative of the harlot throughout the ages". You don't have to be a guardianista to realise that there is not much less empowering than having to fuck strangers for paltry sums, with violence and disease on the side. So wtf did he think "harlot" actually means??
Hooray. The most boring, processional circuit on the calendar is live. Russia and Singapore are tedious. Losing Hungary and Mexico is no loss, but Spain can throw up surprises and Italy's a great high speed circuit.
Abu Dhabi remains mostly tedious.
Also live: Bahrain has had a fantastic race and most of the rest were awful. Azerbaijan has claim to be the worst circuit (big rival for Monaco). UK is good, obviously. Belgium also very good. Malaysia's pretty good. USA is the best modern track and also entertaining.
We don't get to see Canada, Austria, Japan or Brazil (assuming that happens).
The Assessment of Morris Dancer: half the races, but not half the good ones.
- no obvious alternative to Merkel is emerging. Did the weekly (ReWe) supermarket shop for a friend - prices are generally similar to e.g. Tesco, except fresh fruit out of season (much more expensive - e.g. blackberries £3.80 vs £2 in UK) and general absence of cheapest variations - you'd struggle to find cheap cuts of meat, non-free range eggs, etc. Much less microwaveable stuff (which is my own staple diet) - emphasis very heavily on "natural freshly prepared food".
I'm sure there were barrels of sourkraut and loads of wurst - German fast food
About the same level of sausage as in Tesco (i.e. lots). Didn't notice the Sauerkraut but guess it was in there somewhere!
The other interesting thing, pointed out in the weekly centrist online mag Cicero, is that there is a determined Establishment consensus to refrain from dwelling on the Berlin attack - an ecumunical memorial service stressing the need not be provoked, love conquers hate, and so on, and otherwise nothing much. The Cicero writer would have liked to see lots about the 12 victims (5 of them foreign), public grief, soul-searching, etc., as I'm sure we'd have had in Britain. I'm not sure he's typical, though - the strength of the German establishment is that it's rooted deeply in much of the German population, for whom the past is an unforgettable reminder of what happens if you get too carrried away in any direction.
That white boy who was kidnapped by those black teenagers was autistic and he thought one of them were his friends. People are sick. I give up on people.
Winston might well have ended up where he did anyway through sheer force of personality but his background was hardly a hindrance.
Perhaps if rather than being born at Blenheim Palace he'd been born at Chatsworth, and rather than attending Harrow he'd been educated at Rugby, yes. But what would it mean even to imagine his having been born down the Old Kent Road and left some dump school at 11? He wouldn't have had the slightest chance of ending up where he did.
That white boy who was kidnapped by those black teenagers was autistic and he thought one of them were his friends. People are sick. I give up on people.
There is an element of complete scum in any given population, but that element is a minority, albeit, one that can come to the fore in war or revolution.
I think people might be underestimating Theresa May - just as they laughed at John Major for being boring, but he was actually quite good. Without a shadow of doubt, Brexit will be extended crap. Mediocre PM for mediocre times? Theresa's your man! Someone with more imagination might try to do something and muck it all up. As far as I can detect any May strategy at all, it seems to be to declare out-ness, call it a triumph and hope everyone wants to forget about it from then on.
Winston might well have ended up where he did anyway through sheer force of personality but his background was hardly a hindrance.
Perhaps if rather than being born at Blenheim Palace he'd been born at Chatsworth, and rather than attending Harrow he'd been educated at Rugby, yes. But what would it mean even to imagine his having been born down the Old Kent Road and left some dump school at 11? He wouldn't have had the slightest chance of ending up where he did.
People do emerge from nowhere to positions of great power, but they're very rare.
I don't think you can read anything at all into this speech. OF COURSE she has to say we are prepared to leave the Single Market if we don't get what we want. She's not going to copy Dave "dimwit" Cameron's idiotic negotiating style, which was to say there was no way he would ever take Britain out of the EU, and THEN go asking for fundamental reform...
Your comparison with Cameron is the significant thing. She's seeking to rerun Cameron's negotiation but this time with leaving as a credible threat backed up by 17 million Brits.
I visited Hull on Tuesday, doing the rail line from Doncaster via Selby. Had a good view of the Humber Bridge from the train, and also passed over Selby swing-bridge.
2015 regional, R2 HDF: Le Pen 42%, turnout 61%; whole country: Le Pen 27%, turnout 58%
2017 presidential, R2 assume turnout 80% and all regional abstainers back Le Pen HdF: Le Pen: 55% = (0.41+(80/61-1))/(1+(80/61-1)) whole country: Le Pen: (0.27+(80/58-1))/(1+(80/58-1)) = 47%
I agree she needs to win votes from those who voted for other parties in the regionals.
It's interesting that in the regional in HdF, which contains the Calais "jungle", a lot of people who abstained in R1 turned out to vote for her opponent in R2.
But that region may not be her best in the presidential. In 2012, Hollande won both rounds in both Nord and Pas de Calais. Most of the refugees there are from black Africa, Afghanistan, etc. Many don't speak French and don't want to live in France. The issue there overlaps with multiculturalism but it isn't the same. HdF wasn't even the FN's best regional result in 2015. They won 45% in R2 in Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, which includes Marseilles, for a list headed by Marion.
You are absolutely right about Provence-Alpes-Cote d'Azur, and I'd forgotten about that.
But you are forgetting Paris. They didn't vote in the French regionals, and the FN is (relatively) weak there. Including that, it probably pushes the FN down to 45%.
Nevertheless, the assumption we're making is heroic the FN. That turnout increases from 58% to 80% and *all* of the increase goes the FN. This ignores, of course, the fact that the FN's first round opinion poll share has dropped from 32% then to 24% now.
Absent a whole series of Bataclans (and let's not forget the Bataclan attacks, which killed 130 people, happened just before the French regionals), it's very hard to see how the FN can go from a mid twenties first round score, to north of 50% in the second round.
Edit to add: Lyon didn't vote either, nor some of the overseas departements where the FN has negligible support.
Winston might well have ended up where he did anyway through sheer force of personality but his background was hardly a hindrance.
Perhaps if rather than being born at Blenheim Palace he'd been born at Chatsworth, and rather than attending Harrow he'd been educated at Rugby, yes. But what would it mean even to imagine his having been born down the Old Kent Road and left some dump school at 11? He wouldn't have had the slightest chance of ending up where he did.
Ernest Bevin? Aneurin Bevan? In an earlier generation Ramsay Mac.
Hugh Gaitskell might have won in 1964 another Oxford man.However John Smith might also have won in 1997 from Glasgow . It would be good for the Labour legacy and for meritocracy if an Open University graduate made it to PM.
I heard a rumour that John Smith was bumped off by a secretive group of Oxford academics.
On the left, The Economist on Dave a few months after he became PM, mocked up with a mohican with the headline “Radical Britain: the West’s most daring government”. On the right, The Economist on “Theresa Maybe” this week: “Britain’s indecisive premier”. The Economist might be Remainer whinge-fest at the moment but the new Number 10 has failed to kill this narrative in its first few months…
I'm convinced this is as much about the new administration not being as briefing/media friendly as the last than any real issues.
Most people are happy with Theresa, and she'll win far more Con/Lab marginals than Dave ever could have done.
I think people might be underestimating Theresa May - just as they laughed at John Major for being boring, but he was actually quite good. Without a shadow of doubt, Brexit will be extended crap. Mediocre PM for mediocre times? Theresa's your man! Someone with more imagination might try to do something and muck it all up. As far as I can detect any May strategy at all, it seems to be to declare out-ness, call it a triumph and hope everyone wants to forget about it from then on.
I agree May is as boring as Geoff Boycott at the crease .He played for himself was never a good captain but was idolised by the truly faithfull. May will extend the Brexit crap until people will Want her to declare and ask for the follow on.
Thinking of University Challenge, Oxford and Cambridge ought to have primaries, to pick which team they want to send through to the competition. Or else rebrand the programme "Oxbridge College Challenge".
We do. All thirty colleges at Oxford apply for a handful of places - the exact amount determined by scores and, frankly, telegenics.
I still weep about not making it on TV despite being in the BNC team 3 times...
The year after I retired to our second team, the first team got on telly for the first time in ages.
That's the bit I always chuckle when its on social media about XXX from YYY being a bit intense. You lot didn't see the people that didn't get on telly ...
I feared, after the event, that a similar 'Mortimer is too boring' veto may have prevented the team making it.
PB would have a fantastic Uni Challenge team....
TSE's pop knowledge, RCS on everything mathematical, JJ for sciences and Mr Dancer for historical knowledge.
You don't need Mr Dancer for historical knowledge when you've got me on the team.
I think power becomes an addiction, you could argue in the last hundred years no Prime Minister left office at a time of their own choosing, Wilson maybe, but I think he knew he was developing Alzheimer's.
The tanks at Heathrow and the belief among senior MI5 officers, egged on by James Angleton, that Wilson was a KGB asset also had something to do with why he announced his "surprise" resignation.
George Bush, head of the CIA, was in London the same day.
Wilson's brain was damaged during a medical operation later.
On topic, you could argue the greatest Prime Minister we never had went to Cambridge.
Ken Clarke.
A table of some general election losers makes bad reading for Oxford.
Oxford: Miliband, Hague, Callaghan (applied) Wilson (twice) Heath (three times)
Cambridge: Howard
Others: Brown, Kinnock,
NG: Major
So Oxford leads the losers table.
As a Cambridge man I'd love to agree but how do you square this with the all political careers [ especially those of PMs end in failure?
I think power becomes an addiction, you could argue in the last hundred years no Prime Minister left office at a time of their own choosing, Wilson maybe, but I think he knew he was developing Alzheimer's.
Had Dave won the referendum, he would have been a rarity, a PM choosing to stand down at the time of his choosing.
On the left, The Economist on Dave a few months after he became PM, mocked up with a mohican with the headline “Radical Britain: the West’s most daring government”. On the right, The Economist on “Theresa Maybe” this week: “Britain’s indecisive premier”. The Economist might be Remainer whinge-fest at the moment but the new Number 10 has failed to kill this narrative in its first few months…
I'm convinced this is as much about the new administration not being as briefing/media friendly as the last than any real issues.
Most people are happy with Theresa, and she'll win far more Con/Lab marginals than Dave ever could have done.
Not making a political point, but Dave never got the pleasure of facing off against Corbyn.
That white boy who was kidnapped by those black teenagers was autistic and he thought one of them were his friends. People are sick. I give up on people.
It's a hideous story. And the policeman tried to dismiss it as "just kids doing stupid things"
Would he say that if it had been an autistic black lad tortured by white thugs? Disgraceful.
Forgetting the racial element, there was an horrific murder/torture of an mentally disabled Englishman by feral teenagers about a decade ago. It brought me to tears. How do people like that exist?
On topic, you could argue the greatest Prime Minister we never had went to Cambridge.
Ken Clarke.
A table of some general election losers makes bad reading for Oxford.
Oxford: Miliband, Hague, Callaghan (applied) Wilson (twice) Heath (three times)
Cambridge: Howard
Others: Brown, Kinnock,
NG: Major
So Oxford leads the losers table.
As a Cambridge man I'd love to agree but how do you square this with the all political careers [ especially those of PMs end in failure?
I think power becomes an addiction, you could argue in the last hundred years no Prime Minister left office at a time of their own choosing, Wilson maybe, but I think he knew he was developing Alzheimer's.
Had Dave won the referendum, he would have been a rarity, a PM choosing to stand down at the time of his choosing.
I think people might be underestimating Theresa May - just as they laughed at John Major for being boring, but he was actually quite good. Without a shadow of doubt, Brexit will be extended crap. Mediocre PM for mediocre times? Theresa's your man! Someone with more imagination might try to do something and muck it all up. As far as I can detect any May strategy at all, it seems to be to declare out-ness, call it a triumph and hope everyone wants to forget about it from then on.
I agree May is as boring as Geoff Boycott at the crease .He played for himself was never a good captain but was idolised by the truly faithfull. May will extend the Brexit crap until people will Want her to declare and ask for the follow on.
Hugh Gaitskell might have won in 1964 another Oxford man.However John Smith might also have won in 1997 from Glasgow . It would be good for the Labour legacy and for meritocracy if an Open University graduate made it to PM.
I heard a rumour that John Smith was bumped off by a secretive group of Oxford academics.
It was either that or the booze.
Perhaps one of the conspirators was Christopher Hill? Eight years between leaving the Communist Party and being elected Master of Balliol!
On the left, The Economist on Dave a few months after he became PM, mocked up with a mohican with the headline “Radical Britain: the West’s most daring government”. On the right, The Economist on “Theresa Maybe” this week: “Britain’s indecisive premier”. The Economist might be Remainer whinge-fest at the moment but the new Number 10 has failed to kill this narrative in its first few months…
I'm convinced this is as much about the new administration not being as briefing/media friendly as the last than any real issues.
Most people are happy with Theresa, and she'll win far more Con/Lab marginals than Dave ever could have done.
Not making a political point, but Dave never got the pleasure of facing off against Corbyn.
He destroyed Corbyn every week in PMQs for months. Corbyn regularly gets the better of May. Shows how important PMQs is.
On the left, The Economist on Dave a few months after he became PM, mocked up with a mohican with the headline “Radical Britain: the West’s most daring government”. On the right, The Economist on “Theresa Maybe” this week: “Britain’s indecisive premier”. The Economist might be Remainer whinge-fest at the moment but the new Number 10 has failed to kill this narrative in its first few months…
I'm convinced this is as much about the new administration not being as briefing/media friendly as the last than any real issues.
Most people are happy with Theresa, and she'll win far more Con/Lab marginals than Dave ever could have done.
Not making a political point, but Dave never got the pleasure of facing off against Corbyn.
Very true, but Dave never played as well with the Cs and Ds as Mrs May seems to.
I honestly think May, like Thatcher, puts some seats into play, especially in the Midlands, that Eton-educated leaders struggle with.
I think people might be underestimating Theresa May - just as they laughed at John Major for being boring, but he was actually quite good. Without a shadow of doubt, Brexit will be extended crap. Mediocre PM for mediocre times? Theresa's your man! Someone with more imagination might try to do something and muck it all up. As far as I can detect any May strategy at all, it seems to be to declare out-ness, call it a triumph and hope everyone wants to forget about it from then on.
I agree May is as boring as Geoff Boycott at the crease .He played for himself was never a good captain but was idolised by the truly faithfull. May will extend the Brexit crap until people will Want her to declare and ask for the follow on.
Theresa May = Geoff Boycott is perfect.
The rest of the lead batting line up will get systematically eliminated as they're left to face the fast bowling, until she brings in a similarly boring nightwatchman to avoid having to put Andrea Leadsom at the Brexit crease.
That white boy who was kidnapped by those black teenagers was autistic and he thought one of them were his friends. People are sick. I give up on people.
It's a hideous story. And the policeman tried to dismiss it as "just kids doing stupid things"
Would he say that if it had been an autistic black lad tortured by white thugs? Disgraceful.
Forgetting the racial element, there was an horrific murder/torture of an mentally disabled Englishman by feral teenagers about a decade ago. It brought me to tears. How do people like that exist?
My view is that it comes down to a combination of the following: *) Bad 'genes' (by which I mean negative inherent traits, even if slight ones such as hyperactivity) *) Bad parenting. *) Bad associates - e.g. friends, role models.
Someone can, with drive, overcome these. All three together can be toxic.
On topic, you could argue the greatest Prime Minister we never had went to Cambridge.
Ken Clarke.
A table of some general election losers makes bad reading for Oxford.
Oxford: Miliband, Hague, Callaghan (applied) Wilson (twice) Heath (three times)
Cambridge: Howard
Others: Brown, Kinnock,
NG: Major
So Oxford leads the losers table.
As a Cambridge man I'd love to agree but how do you square this with the all political careers [ especially those of PMs end in failure?
I think power becomes an addiction, you could argue in the last hundred years no Prime Minister left office at a time of their own choosing, Wilson maybe, but I think he knew he was developing Alzheimer's.
Had Dave won the referendum, he would have been a rarity, a PM choosing to stand down at the time of his choosing.
In the last 100 years, Baldwin probably counts as an unforced retirement in 1937.
That white boy who was kidnapped by those black teenagers was autistic and he thought one of them were his friends. People are sick. I give up on people.
It's a hideous story. And the policeman tried to dismiss it as "just kids doing stupid things"
Would he say that if it had been an autistic black lad tortured by white thugs? Disgraceful.
Forgetting the racial element, there was an horrific murder/torture of an mentally disabled Englishman by feral teenagers about a decade ago. It brought me to tears. How do people like that exist?
When I was in prison, most of the cons I encountered had some terrible backstory - a violent father, abusive mother, orphaned at 6, a justified hatred of whoever - so you could kind of explain their crimes.
But I met a handful who were simply evil, as far I could see. Not insane, not even stupid, they simply took a nihilistic pleasure in the suffering or killing of others and the negation of society. And as SeanF says, they come from all backgrounds, and come in all colours.
Winston might well have ended up where he did anyway through sheer force of personality but his background was hardly a hindrance.
Perhaps if rather than being born at Blenheim Palace he'd been born at Chatsworth, and rather than attending Harrow he'd been educated at Rugby, yes. But what would it mean even to imagine his having been born down the Old Kent Road and left some dump school at 11? He wouldn't have had the slightest chance of ending up where he did.
In contradiction of which, I give you his friend and rival, David Lloyd George.
Comments
Suggest some alternatives.
http://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/but-for-a-vote-ken-clarke-wins-the-2001-tory-leadership-contest.361152/
Declaration of interest.
Went to Durham High School for girls, The Chorister School for boys, Durham School (at the time for boys) and my son went to Collingwood College, Durham.
“Good”, said Gordon. “So have I. When are you going to hand over to me?”
Classic!
There is a lot that could be done to lift the performance of under-performing companies, [Andy Haldane] says. As one example, he says it is easy to borrow against physical property, but much harder to borrow against intellectual property.
Only an economist could be stupid enough not to realise that there's a very good reason for that!
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/jan/05/whitehall-lacks-skills-for-hard-nosed-brexit-negotiation-says-former-trade-envoy-politics-live
physical assets quite often get hardish valuations on a loan
antyhing "tech" which is essentially fresh air has access to sources of finances who will quite happily bet on an idea.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-38510344
In Frankfurt this week. German polls remain stable:
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
- no obvious alternative to Merkel is emerging. Did the weekly (ReWe) supermarket shop for a friend - prices are generally similar to e.g. Tesco, except fresh fruit out of season (much more expensive - e.g. blackberries £3.80 vs £2 in UK) and general absence of cheapest variations - you'd struggle to find cheap cuts of meat, non-free range eggs, etc. Much less microwaveable stuff (which is my own staple diet) - emphasis very heavily on "natural freshly prepared food".
The military were trying to explain directed energy weapons to some congressmen. One of the politicians, obviously versed in too much science fiction, asked: "Could this weapon vaporise me?"
"Sure," one of the militarymen replied. "If you stood still for a couple of years."
Lasers have improved a little since then ...
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/817009686314680320
I think Clarke would have been OK; stays relatively calm in a crisis.
Doesn't Eden deserve the title 'worst post War PM', along with others who made disastrous foreign policy errors?
That's the bit I always chuckle when its on social media about XXX from YYY being a bit intense. You lot didn't see the people that didn't get on telly ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L7iqalhjWno
I might be wrong though, and something stirring in the back of my mind makes me think there were also x-ray energy devices experimented with at the time,
Sadly it's not my field, and Mrs J (who might know) is at work.
I've just spent three and a half hours at a children's soft play (aka baby cage)
I was standing against a wall keeping my eye on the little 'un when something whacks me right in the tackle. I double over, and when I open my eyes a cherubic little boy, blonde, not more than four years of age, is aiming another punch.
I thought that might amuse a few of you ...
I meet lots of Oxford types in my line of work. A significant proportion of them are w*nkers. And quite a few of the rest have about as much common-sense as my front door mat.
PB would have a fantastic Uni Challenge team....
TSE's pop knowledge, RCS on everything mathematical, JJ for sciences and Mr Dancer for historical knowledge.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/04/theresa-may-set-brexit-vision-warn-uk-will-quit-single-market/?WT.mc_id=tmgliveapp_androidshare_AnLBNxq3R557
Had Dave won the referendum, he would have been a rarity, a PM choosing to stand down at the time of his choosing.
Working:
2015 regional, R2
HDF: Le Pen 42%, turnout 61%;
whole country: Le Pen 27%, turnout 58%
2017 presidential, R2
assume turnout 80% and all regional abstainers back Le Pen
HdF: Le Pen: 55% = (0.41+(80/61-1))/(1+(80/61-1))
whole country: Le Pen: (0.27+(80/58-1))/(1+(80/58-1)) = 47%
I agree she needs to win votes from those who voted for other parties in the regionals.
It's interesting that in the regional in HdF, which contains the Calais "jungle", a lot of people who abstained in R1 turned out to vote for her opponent in R2.
But that region may not be her best in the presidential. In 2012, Hollande won both rounds in both Nord and Pas de Calais. Most of the refugees there are from black Africa, Afghanistan, etc. Many don't speak French and don't want to live in France. The issue there overlaps with multiculturalism but it isn't the same. HdF wasn't even the FN's best regional result in 2015. They won 45% in R2 in Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, which includes Marseilles, for a list headed by Marion.
Funnily enough with many of these weapons they would be in breach of the Geneva conventions. It is okay to kill someone but not to make them feel uncomfortable for a while.
The Monaco Grand Prix will be broadcast live on free-to-air television in the UK for the first time in five years as Channel 4 revealed its programme details for the new season.
The terrestrial broadcaster will again show 10 live Formula One races as part of its co-broadcasting deal with Sky Sports, including the British Grand Prix at Silverstone on 16 July. Sky will show all 20 races live.
Channel 4 will also broadcast live for the first time the Russian, Singapore and US grands prix, dropping Spain, Hungary, Italy and Mexico as a result. The channel has also retained the rights to the season-ending Abu Dhabi race.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2017/jan/05/monaco-grand-prix-free-to-air-tv-channel-4?CMP=twt_gu
On the left, The Economist on Dave a few months after he became PM, mocked up with a mohican with the headline “Radical Britain: the West’s most daring government”. On the right, The Economist on “Theresa Maybe” this week: “Britain’s indecisive premier”. The Economist might be Remainer whinge-fest at the moment but the new Number 10 has failed to kill this narrative in its first few months…
Hooray. The most boring, processional circuit on the calendar is live. Russia and Singapore are tedious. Losing Hungary and Mexico is no loss, but Spain can throw up surprises and Italy's a great high speed circuit.
Abu Dhabi remains mostly tedious.
Also live:
Bahrain has had a fantastic race and most of the rest were awful.
Azerbaijan has claim to be the worst circuit (big rival for Monaco).
UK is good, obviously.
Belgium also very good.
Malaysia's pretty good.
USA is the best modern track and also entertaining.
We don't get to see Canada, Austria, Japan or Brazil (assuming that happens).
The Assessment of Morris Dancer: half the races, but not half the good ones.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1423660/MI6-officer-suspected-of-being-Soviet-spy-was-never-questioned.html
The other interesting thing, pointed out in the weekly centrist online mag Cicero, is that there is a determined Establishment consensus to refrain from dwelling on the Berlin attack - an ecumunical memorial service stressing the need not be provoked, love conquers hate, and so on, and otherwise nothing much. The Cicero writer would have liked to see lots about the 12 victims (5 of them foreign), public grief, soul-searching, etc., as I'm sure we'd have had in Britain. I'm not sure he's typical, though - the strength of the German establishment is that it's rooted deeply in much of the German population, for whom the past is an unforgettable reminder of what happens if you get too carrried away in any direction.
It may just work!
I visited Hull on Tuesday, doing the rail line from Doncaster via Selby. Had a good view of the Humber Bridge from the train, and also passed over Selby swing-bridge.
But you are forgetting Paris. They didn't vote in the French regionals, and the FN is (relatively) weak there. Including that, it probably pushes the FN down to 45%.
Nevertheless, the assumption we're making is heroic the FN. That turnout increases from 58% to 80% and *all* of the increase goes the FN. This ignores, of course, the fact that the FN's first round opinion poll share has dropped from 32% then to 24% now.
Absent a whole series of Bataclans (and let's not forget the Bataclan attacks, which killed 130 people, happened just before the French regionals), it's very hard to see how the FN can go from a mid twenties first round score, to north of 50% in the second round.
Edit to add: Lyon didn't vote either, nor some of the overseas departements where the FN has negligible support.
In an earlier generation Ramsay Mac.
I grant you they were the exception.
The right-on luvvy lefties - spearheaded by Ken Loach - are going to be spitting blood.
The swivel-eyed right-wingers who once hated him are now portraying him as a hero.
All very amusing.
Worth remembering he is where he is because he refuses to travel to Sweden to face allegations of rape.
Most people are happy with Theresa, and she'll win far more Con/Lab marginals than Dave ever could have done.
Want her to declare and ask for the follow on.
George Bush, head of the CIA, was in London the same day.
Wilson's brain was damaged during a medical operation later.
Perhaps one of the conspirators was Christopher Hill? Eight years between leaving the Communist Party and being elected Master of Balliol!
I honestly think May, like Thatcher, puts some seats into play, especially in the Midlands, that Eton-educated leaders struggle with.
*) Bad 'genes' (by which I mean negative inherent traits, even if slight ones such as hyperactivity)
*) Bad parenting.
*) Bad associates - e.g. friends, role models.
Someone can, with drive, overcome these. All three together can be toxic.
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/817028878652817408
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1558706/Tortured-drugged-and-murdered-for-fun.html