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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big one: Cyclefree announces her awards for 2016

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,973

    You can tell them if you like but that won't stop them. And cameras get smaller, more portable and more omnipresent every cycle.
    Yes but the selfies get larger, more seen and more omnipresent on social media too.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,230
    @David L, people have turned up to vote in Tower Hamlets, to discover they've "voted" by post.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,199
    I suspect that a requirement to produce one's polling card would combat lots of fraud. The system could be beefed up further with a requirement to confirm D.O.B along with password or PIN or scanned signature that could be set-up as part of voter registration. Simply turning up and announcing that your are Mr Jones of Sycamore Avenue has probably had its day.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,230
    @Hurst Llama

    Indeed, the problem in Tower Hamlets is a reluctance on the part of the authorities to enforce the law (where have we heard that before?).
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Isn't the discussion potentially missing the point somewhat about providing ID at the polling station. If (and its a big IF) there was some reason to think that personification was corrupting the electoral process, then to combat it then there isn't necessarily a need to require a high level of ID (ie. linking (recognisable) photo, name, address etc).

    Simply turning up with a third party document with your name on it is likely to be sufficient for the purposes of avoiding electoral corruption. The point is that the penalties for electoral fraud are high. Therefore to attempt to implement such fraud on any material widespread basis there has to be a realistic chance of success, and lack of likelihood of detection.

    The moment electoral fraud requires the creation of "fake" documentation, even basic documentation just showing a name, especially on a widespread scale, it becomes much easier to detect, and importantly trace back. Don't forget that "personification" requires that the eligible voter doesn't actually attempt to vote.

    If the problem is not actually personification, but is actually registration of ineligible/non-existent voters, then the time to tackle this is not in the voting booth.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,551
    We could all be implanted with a microchip that could be scanned at the polling station before we are allowed to vote.

    However that would be a total waste of time when most dodgy practices are connected with postal voting.

    Oh, and put me down as one lefty who enjoyed the header. Can I add a nomination for the PLP to receive the 'couldn't organise a drinking event in a brewery' award for their efforts to get rid of Jezza.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,686
    Sean_F said:

    @David L, people have turned up to vote in Tower Hamlets, to discover they've "voted" by post.

    Yes but that was a very particular example which led to a prosecution and banning order. Is there any evidence that this is widespread or are we looking at a solution in search of a problem?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Where is the "quote option"?

    SR - I think you're unfair on the PLP. I actually think they did a pretty good job of organising the drinking event. The problem they had was that it turned out they weren't in a brewery, and, even worse, the wider Labour Party seemed to have collectively taken the decision to join AA.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    DavidL said:

    Yes but that was a very particular example which led to a prosecution and banning order. Is there any evidence that this is widespread or are we looking at a solution in search of a problem?
    If you change a country from a Boutique Hotel where the owners know the guests by name into a Premier Inn where the zero hours contract workers don't even know which part of town they're in, then you have to make changes.

    Premier Inns probably make more % on each £ though, so that's all that matters
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,551
    @alex - they couldn't even work out who should stand against Corbyn
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited December 2016
    alex. said:

    Where is the "quote option"?

    Click on the timestamp under the name (top left) of the post you want to quote. This takes you to the Vanilla Forums interface to pb where the posts are the other way up (newest at the bottom) and where the quote button still exists. It will also land you within two or three posts of the one you wanted to quote.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,965
    My joke about cleavage in the Labour Party referred to the other kind of cleavage, but I'm glad to see a heated discussion on the PM's mammaries is underway nevertheless.
  • Sean_F said:

    @Hurst Llama

    Indeed, the problem in Tower Hamlets is a reluctance on the part of the authorities to enforce the law (where have we heard that before?).

    The authorities in Tower Hamlets were more interested in harassing people who said that the law was being broken.

    There was a great deal of similarity of the action of the Met plods in Tower Hamlets and the South Yorkshire plods in Rotherham.

    And no action continues to be taken against either force.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    "... people have turned up to vote in Tower Hamlets, to discover they've "voted" by post."

    I have seen that when I have worked as a polling clerk in the polling station in the small Sussex village of Ansty. Of course, you don't know that the person has voted only that they have been given a postal vote (it is marked on the register) and therefore are ineligible to be given a ballot form in the polling station. I doubt fraud was involved in the Ansty cases, though, just older people being forgetful.

    We also regularly had people turning up in person to hand in their postal vote, which is totally OK and there set procedures for accepting them and a separate ballot box in which to put the envelopes. One has to wonder why they bother though.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Why can't we just take the polling card as "ID" to vote?

    Everyone gets one, and it would limit people just turning up and pretending to be from another address.

    Doesn't cover every situation, but it would be a simple start without anyone complaining they don't have driver's licence, passport, etc.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 53,991
    Essexit said:

    My joke about cleavage in the Labour Party referred to the other kind of cleavage, but I'm glad to see a heated discussion on the PM's mammaries is underway nevertheless.

    The Labour party can't do cleavage these days. All that's left is a monoboob.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,309
    "Why can't we just take the polling card as "ID" to vote?"

    That would be voter suppression - of people who don't have a polling card.

    My solution to turnout is have week long elections.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658


    Why can't we just take the polling card as "ID" to vote?

    Everyone gets one, and it would limit people just turning up and pretending to be from another address.

    Doesn't cover every situation, but it would be a simple start without anyone complaining they don't have driver's licence, passport, etc.

    I would be very surprised if a non-trivial number of polling cards failed to be delivered accurately (even ignoring the large number that no doubt get thrown away by accident etc).
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,965
    @williamglenn - I disagree, Labour is a whole load of t*ts.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,686

    We could all be implanted with a microchip that could be scanned at the polling station before we are allowed to vote.

    However that would be a total waste of time when most dodgy practices are connected with postal voting.

    Oh, and put me down as one lefty who enjoyed the header. Can I add a nomination for the PLP to receive the 'couldn't organise a drinking event in a brewery' award for their efforts to get rid of Jezza.

    Would these microchips tell us how to vote

    Click on the timestamp under the name (top left) of the post you want to quote. This takes you to the Vanilla Forums interface to pb where the posts are the other way up (newest at the bottom) and where the quote button still exists. It will also land you within two or three posts of the one you wanted to quote.
    There is the small problem of having to stand on your head while you read to get the posts in the right order. I find that tiring after a while.
  • Very funny, uncomfortable, lefty humour. Some audience reaction is painful:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WMNA0dv4OpQ
  • "... people have turned up to vote in Tower Hamlets, to discover they've "voted" by post."

    I have seen that when I have worked as a polling clerk in the polling station in the small Sussex village of Ansty. Of course, you don't know that the person has voted only that they have been given a postal vote (it is marked on the register) and therefore are ineligible to be given a ballot form in the polling station. I doubt fraud was involved in the Ansty cases, though, just older people being forgetful.

    We also regularly had people turning up in person to hand in their postal vote, which is totally OK and there set procedures for accepting them and a separate ballot box in which to put the envelopes. One has to wonder why they bother though.

    If you post your ballot you have to do so several days beforehand and so vote before having full information of the electoral campaign.

    I've always found that walking to vote is more pleasurable than posting my vote.
  • Click on the timestamp under the name (top left) of the post you want to quote. This takes you to the Vanilla Forums interface to pb where the posts are the other way up (newest at the bottom) and where the quote button still exists. It will also land you within two or three posts of the one you wanted to quote.
    Many thanks, John.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,538
    isam said:

    If you change a country from a Boutique Hotel where the owners know the guests by name into a Premier Inn where the zero hours contract workers don't even know which part of town they're in, then you have to make changes.

    Premier Inns probably make more % on each £ though, so that's all that matters
    Without getting too pedantic I bet Premier Inn margins are lower than Boutique Hotels '.

    Just that Premier Inns make more money because turnover is higher.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    alex. said:

    Isn't the discussion potentially missing the point somewhat about providing ID at the polling station. If (and its a big IF) there was some reason to think that personification was corrupting the electoral process, then to combat it then there isn't necessarily a need to require a high level of ID (ie. linking (recognisable) photo, name, address etc).

    Simply turning up with a third party document with your name on it is likely to be sufficient for the purposes of avoiding electoral corruption. The point is that the penalties for electoral fraud are high. Therefore to attempt to implement such fraud on any material widespread basis there has to be a realistic chance of success, and lack of likelihood of detection.

    The moment electoral fraud requires the creation of "fake" documentation, even basic documentation just showing a name, especially on a widespread scale, it becomes much easier to detect, and importantly trace back. Don't forget that "personification" requires that the eligible voter doesn't actually attempt to vote.

    If the problem is not actually personification, but is actually registration of ineligible/non-existent voters, then the time to tackle this is not in the voting booth.

    Personation, not personification - sorry to be a pedant.

    I had to google to look it up. If you just give google the word "personation" two of the top four auto completes it offers are "personation meaning in hindi" and "personation meaning in urdu". I have no idea why this would be.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,686
    alex. said:

    I would be very surprised if a non-trivial number of polling cards failed to be delivered accurately (even ignoring the large number that no doubt get thrown away by accident etc).
    I am sure that is right. When canvassing etc you find an increasing number of blocks of flats in particular with "security" systems on the door where gaining access is difficult. They normally have a service override in the morning but the morning postie is an historical memory these days and I suspect many posties have problems.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,965
    Southam, I generally find lefty humour to be an oxymoron.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,592
    The simple starter with postal votes would be to remove auto-renewal. I had a postal vote in 2015 as I was on holiday, and it took 3 emails to the council for them to register this was a 1 time only deal and I did not want postal votes sent in perpetuity.

  • Mr. L, there have been reported incidents of people turning up to vote and finding 'they' already have.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited December 2016
    TOPPING said:

    Without getting too pedantic I bet Premier Inn margins are lower than Boutique Hotels '.

    Just that Premier Inns make more money because turnover is higher.
    You're right, a completely incorrect sign off from me there which undermines the point I was making!

    "Premier Inns probably churn more money though , so that's all that matters" would have been better
  • @Essexit - all humour is lefty. We are the only people with a sense of humour.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Very funny, uncomfortable, lefty humour. Some audience reaction is painful:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WMNA0dv4OpQ

    First time I watched Stewart Lee, on recommendation from an extreme lefty friend, I got almost to the end thinking I was really enjoying it, then realised I hadn't laughed once. I think I like his delivery, but don't find him that funny.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,199
    I suspect that people do not turn up to discover that they have voted by post, but do turn up to discover that they are registered to vote by post and are therefore not eligible to vote in person.

    Postal voters seem to become confused when they receive a card not dissimilar to a polling card advising them that they are registered to vote by post. This appears to convey the belief that the postal vote is an either/or option, which leads to them turning up at the polling station, only to find that they cannot vote in person.

    I am afraid that I am regularly guilty of delivering my postal vote to the polling station. I see it as my civic duty to turn up at the polling booth whenever possible, but the postal vote guarantees my being able to vote in the event of last minute holidays or ill health preventing my attendance on the day.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited December 2016
    "If you post your ballot you have to do so several days beforehand and so vote before having full information of the electoral campaign.

    I've always found that walking to vote is more pleasurable than posting my vote."

    I quite agree, Mr. Richard, and there is I think a feeling of satisfaction of going to the polling station and doing one's civic duty. But if a person is going to do that why bother with asking for the postal vote in first place? That is the bit I don't understand.

    Edited Extra bit: Mr Gadfly has now provided an answer to my question.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,965
    @SouthamObserver - to be fair that did raise a smile! ;)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021

    "If you post your ballot you have to do so several days beforehand and so vote before having full information of the electoral campaign.

    I've always found that walking to vote is more pleasurable than posting my vote."

    I quite agree, Mr. Richard, and there is I think a feeling of satisfaction of going to the polling station and doing one's civic duty. But if a person is going to do that why bother with asking for the postal vote in first place? That is the bit I don't understand.

    Edited Extra bit: Mr Gadfly has now provided an answer to my question.

    In 2010 I took a postal vote to the polling station - was home for a change and so didn't bother with the postal vote in advance, but ended up arriving back the day before the election and didn't trust the ballot to arrive overnight.

    I suspect there are quite a few of these, from those who work shifts or do lots of travelling and aren't sure in advance whether they'll be able to vote in person or not.

    As others have said, having annual renewal of postal votes would help reduce fraud.
  • "If you post your ballot you have to do so several days beforehand and so vote before having full information of the electoral campaign.

    I've always found that walking to vote is more pleasurable than posting my vote."

    I quite agree, Mr. Richard, and there is I think a feeling of satisfaction of going to the polling station and doing one's civic duty. But if a person is going to do that why bother with asking for the postal vote in first place? That is the bit I don't understand.

    Edited Extra bit: Mr Gadfly has now provided an answer to my question.

    Large numbers of people in Northern England have postal votes as a consequence of the 2004 European elections being postal voting only in their area.
  • Mr. Observer, the best humour is clearly Sir Edric's assorted shenanigans:
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Adventures-Edric-Hero-Hornska-Book-ebook/dp/B01DOSP9ZK/

    I find it quite hard to take elves seriously.

    http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2015/08/guest-post-why-elves-are-total-bastards.html
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    I seem to have lost ability to reply to posts? any suggestions on how to fix?
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Floater said:

    I seem to have lost ability to reply to posts? any suggestions on how to fix?


    Take an English course. Brush up on your grammar skills. Consider what the person has said, and formulate an appropriate response.

    :wink:

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    @Essexit - all humour is lefty. We are the only people with a sense of humour.

    That Stewart Lee video is quite funny though, I have to admit. Brave man!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Very funny, uncomfortable, lefty humour. Some audience reaction is painful:

    m.youtube.com/watch?v=WMNA0dv4OpQ

    Both Stewart Lee and Richard Hereing have a very highly evolved relationship with Scotch comedy audiences, especially at the Stand in Glasgow an Edinburgh.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,686


    Take an English course. Brush up on your grammar skills. Consider what the person has said, and formulate an appropriate response.

    :wink:

    LOL.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Sandpit said:

    In 2010 I took a postal vote to the polling station - was home for a change and so didn't bother with the postal vote in advance, but ended up arriving back the day before the election and didn't trust the ballot to arrive overnight.

    I suspect there are quite a few of these, from those who work shifts or do lots of travelling and aren't sure in advance whether they'll be able to vote in person or not.

    As others have said, having annual renewal of postal votes would help reduce fraud.
    We know that most postal votes are done almost by return of post, usually weeks before election day. We should really have longer campaigns to make up.

    I would also like to see secure online voting as it would be more helpful for people who genuinely are away from home.
  • Dr. Foxinsox, online voting is something we should absolutely avoid. It's a golden gateway to interference in elections.
  • @Alistair - that shines through. But some in the audience didn't get it.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Passports don't have addresses; utility bills don't have photos and are not addressed to every member of a household. The only ID that works is a driving licence - so that's my wife, my mother-in-law, my Mum, my daughter and middle son all denied a vote. Only the mother-in-law's a Tory, so it's a net win for the Blues - which I guess is the point.

    A lot of Labour voters won't pay to get photo I.d. They are really learning from the Texan Republicans on this.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,552
    isam said:

    First time I watched Stewart Lee, on recommendation from an extreme lefty friend, I got almost to the end thinking I was really enjoying it, then realised I hadn't laughed once. I think I like his delivery, but don't find him that funny.
    I find myself often wondering whether I understand the joke he is making... Or whether he is laughing at me.

    Having seen him live in a small venue... His control of a room is incredible.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,552
    Essexit said:

    Southam, I generally find lefty humour to be an oxymoron.

    Aren't most comedians left wing?
    Certainly feels like it... Stuart Lee article on it below:

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/04/where-are-all-right-wing-stand-ups
  • Off-topic (bar the humour and the categories), could I seek feedback on whether people think it'd be worth me pushing on with an idea for a humorous dictionary of political terms as an idea to pitch to publishers?

    The sort of things I'd be thinking of would be:

    Big Beast

    A politician who could cause untold damage to a leader if mismanaged. Someone who must therefore be appeased with senior office, irrespective of his or her ability to do the job.
    See also heavyweight.

    Deputy Leader

    1. Bitter loser of the last leadership election who felt obliged to take the Deputy’s job. Publicly, it was for the sake of party unity; privately, it was to spend the next few years undermining the leader and jockeying to be in pole position to succeed him or her.
    2. Political lightweight who was willing to accept the reflected glory of the leader and the invites the leader doesn’t want in exchange for giving up any independence of thought or action.
    See also Vice-President.

    Elder Statesman

    A has-been who has not (yet) disgraced him- or herself.

    Marxism

    A Grand Unified Theory of politics, economics, sociology and history. Believed to work perfectly providing that it is never brought into contact with humans.

    and so on.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    rkrkrk said:

    Aren't most comedians left wing?
    Certainly feels like it... Stuart Lee article on it below:

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/04/where-are-all-right-wing-stand-ups
    I was meant to go on a date with a girl and blew it out when she sent me a Roy Chubby Brown video.. what a snowflake!!
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Off-topic (bar the humour and the categories), could I seek feedback on whether people think it'd be worth me pushing on with an idea for a humorous dictionary of political terms as an idea to pitch to publishers?

    The sort of things I'd be thinking of would be:

    Big Beast

    A politician who could cause untold damage to a leader if mismanaged. Someone who must therefore be appeased with senior office, irrespective of his or her ability to do the job.
    See also heavyweight.

    Deputy Leader

    1. Bitter loser of the last leadership election who felt obliged to take the Deputy’s job. Publicly, it was for the sake of party unity; privately, it was to spend the next few years undermining the leader and jockeying to be in pole position to succeed him or her.
    2. Political lightweight who was willing to accept the reflected glory of the leader and the invites the leader doesn’t want in exchange for giving up any independence of thought or action.
    See also Vice-President.

    Elder Statesman

    A has-been who has not (yet) disgraced him- or herself.

    Marxism

    A Grand Unified Theory of politics, economics, sociology and history. Believed to work perfectly providing that it is never brought into contact with humans.

    and so on.

    Hasn't Rob Hutton done something similar a year or two ago on journalese?

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B00DY0UACQ/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1
  • Mr. Herdson, would you have enough terms?

    Might be a bit niche. On the other hand, rising division means the market might be larger than it would've been a few years ago. Plus, if you annoy one side they'll give you free publicity by being noisily outraged (I toyed with the idea of sending free copies of Sir Edric to people I thought might be offended by it, for the free marketing, but decided against it).

    If you do do it, make sure you make a running start. First part of a book often decides if browsers become buyers, and primacy/recency means they'll heavily weight first impressions when writing a review.

    I keep thinking of writing a guide to betting on F1, but (leaving aside the last season was hardly testimony to my judgement, one moment aside) don't really have the time right now.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,552

    Off-topic (bar the humour and the categories), could I seek feedback on whether people think it'd be worth me pushing on with an idea for a humorous dictionary of political terms as an idea to pitch to publishers?

    The sort of things I'd be thinking of would be:

    Big Beast

    A politician who could cause untold damage to a leader if mismanaged. Someone who must therefore be appeased with senior office, irrespective of his or her ability to do the job.
    See also heavyweight.

    Deputy Leader

    1. Bitter loser of the last leadership election who felt obliged to take the Deputy’s job. Publicly, it was for the sake of party unity; privately, it was to spend the next few years undermining the leader and jockeying to be in pole position to succeed him or her.
    2. Political lightweight who was willing to accept the reflected glory of the leader and the invites the leader doesn’t want in exchange for giving up any independence of thought or action.
    See also Vice-President.

    Elder Statesman

    A has-been who has not (yet) disgraced him- or herself.

    Marxism

    A Grand Unified Theory of politics, economics, sociology and history. Believed to work perfectly providing that it is never brought into contact with humans.

    and so on.

    Not that I have any expertise - but I think it's a good idea. Can imagine it making a good stocking filler type present. Probably quite fun to write I'd imagine too!
  • Just before I go, Mr. Herdson, provided you can get enough terms (easy enough to do, I'd guess) I'd give it a crack. Sounds like it'd be an efficient sort of book to write because you'd only need a couple of entries per page, if you go for a Little Book approach.

    Anyway, I must be off.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,551
    Mr H - an alternative approach would be a spoof 'Ladybird Book of Politics' type approach where you could incorporate the definitions but also broaden out the content.

    Good luck with the project.
  • Off-topic (bar the humour and the categories), could I seek feedback on whether people think it'd be worth me pushing on with an idea for a humorous dictionary of political terms as an idea to pitch to publishers?

    The sort of things I'd be thinking of would be:

    Big Beast

    A politician who could cause untold damage to a leader if mismanaged. Someone who must therefore be appeased with senior office, irrespective of his or her ability to do the job. [snip] and so on.

    As a humorous dictionary of political terminology, it could be a great success (if there’s nothing out there already) – I remember getting a stocking filler yonks ago, called The Meaning of Liff, written by Douglas Adams and John Lloyd which was great fun and a possible route for you to take with it.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Meaning_of_Liff
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    My favourite Private Eye cartoom has a man standing on a hilltop looking out over fields "I remember son, when all this used to be factories..."
    Oh yes ......well said that man. Just don't vote Labour.

    The importance of manufacturing to the economy declined more rapidly under Labour administrations since 1997 than it did during the Margaret Thatcher era, according to a Financial Times study.
    The big winners in the same period were bankers, estate agents and public sector workers, whose share of output increased under the Labour governments of Tony Blair, the former prime minister, and Gordon Brown, his successor. The findings about the state of the economy were uncovered during a study of data held by the Office for National Statistics


    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8c257da6-dfab-11de-98ca-00144feab49a.html?ft_site=falcon&desktop=true#axzz4U2YcZZXE
    surbiton said:

    A rich arsehole who fucked up the country while trying to solve a party problem.
    I think the outcome of the referendum showed this was not just "a party problem".
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806

    FloaterFloater • Posts: 2,910

    11:57AM



    I seem to have lost ability to reply to posts? any suggestions on how to fix?

    Highlight and copy the message then add your comment
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,225
    Can’t see the problem with ID for the Labour voting elderly; bus passes have a photo on them.
  • Most moving sporting moment has to be the Jonathan Brownlee carrying Alistair over the last few 100 metres of that race in Mexico after Alistair was on the verge of collapse
  • Waste of Money award - FA for appointing Big Sam for a month
  • We know that most postal votes are done almost by return of post, usually weeks before election day. We should really have longer campaigns to make up.

    I would also like to see secure online voting as it would be more helpful for people who genuinely are away from home.
    What about early voting in person? I have twice made my mind up on the way to the polling station, so even if I had a regular postal vote wouldn't have used it on those occasions.
  • TableTable Posts: 1
    edited December 2016
    What might happen to make an investment in Marine Le Pen worthwhile? She's viewed as the outsider, as Trump was and as to some extent Leave was too. But both Trump and Leave got exposure in TV debates. Will Le Pen?

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but the debate list looks like this:

    "Right and centre" primaries:
    Party: Les Republicains
    Voting: Round 1, 20 Nov; Round 2, 27 Nov
    Debates: three, all before the first round: 13 Oct, 3 Nov, 17 Nov

    Socialist primaries:
    Voting: Round 1, 22 Jan; Round 2, 29 Jan
    Parties: Socialist Party and Radical Party of the Left
    Debates: ?

    Actual presidential election:
    Voting: Round 1, 23 Apr; Round 2, 7 May
    Debates: am I right that there is usually only one, which usually gets a large audience, held between the two rounds? But in 2002 there was no debate, because Jacques Chirac refused to debate with Jean-Marie Le Pen.

    If, as expected, Marine Le Pen wins the first round with less than a majority and François Fillon comes second, what approach will Fillon take? He may have won not much more than half of Le Pen's level of support in the first round, putting him in a different position from Chirac's in 2002. So will he be able to refuse to debate with her in the second? And if he does, what will Le Pen's strategy be? Can she win without at least scoring some points in a TV debate?




  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Thomas Sowell's farewell to political commentary is worth a quick read, particularly about the progress made against poverty and the regression in civil society:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/12/27/farewell_132647.html
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Mr Herdson - the Ambrose Bierce's Devil's Dictionary has some useful terms. Without looking them up to check, I seem to remember:

    diplomacy - telling someone to go to hell and making them look forward to the trip

    compromise - two grown men agreeing to do what they both know to be wrong
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    Cyclefree....your caustic, intelligent, well written satire is well targeted and hits the mark.... It would be great to see more of it
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,686
    Table said:

    What might happen to make an investment in Marine Le Pen worthwhile? She's viewed as the outsider, as Trump was and as to some extent Leave was too. But both Trump and Leave got exposure in TV debates. Will Le Pen?

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but the debate list looks like this:

    "Right and centre" primaries:
    Party: Les Republicains
    Voting: Round 1, 20 Nov; Round 2, 27 Nov
    Debates: three, all before the first round: 13 Oct, 3 Nov, 17 Nov

    Socialist primaries:
    Voting: Round 1, 22 Jan; Round 2, 29 Jan
    Parties: Socialist Party and Radical Party of the Left
    Debates: ?

    Actual presidential election:
    Voting: Round 1, 23 Apr; Round 2, 7 May
    Debates: am I right that there is usually only one, which usually gets a large audience, held between the two rounds? But in 2002 there was no debate, because Jacques Chirac refused to debate with Jean-Marie Le Pen.

    If, as expected, Marine Le Pen wins the first round with less than a majority and François Fillon comes second, what approach will Fillon take? He may have won not much more than half of Le Pen's level of support in the first round, putting him in a different position from Chirac's in 2002. So will he be able to refuse to debate with her in the second? And if he does, what will Le Pen's strategy be? Can she win without at least scoring some points in a TV debate?




    Welcome. I can't see a way for Marine Le Pen to win unless the mood changes enormously. She already has the advantage of one of the most inept Presidents of modern times demonstrating how hard the conventional parties find it to change anything significant. She would need a real game changer.

    If there were suddenly very large numbers of African immigrants landing in France over the summer or, god forbid, more terrorist atrocities caused by immigrants from Syria etc or, just maybe, a real collapse of the Euro on the back of Italian problems she just might get in the game but it is a real long shot and I see little to no value in her at the moment.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    I see the Tories now with voter ID, ontop of registration, the boundary review etc...shameless gerrymandering that GOP would be quite jealous of......
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    edited December 2016
    Table said:


    If, as expected, Marine Le Pen wins the first round with less than a majority and François Fillon comes second, what approach will Fillon take? He may have won not much more than half of Le Pen's level of support in the first round, putting him in a different position from Chirac's in 2002. So will he be able to refuse to debate with her in the second? And if he does, what will Le Pen's strategy be? Can she win without at least scoring some points in a TV debate?

    What makes you think Fillon is expected to come a poor second in the first round? He's leading most of the first-round polling; Is the thought that the Socialists will take a lot of his vote off him once they pick their candidate???

    https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_de_sondages_sur_l'élection_présidentielle_française_de_2017#D.C3.A9cembre
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    The Sybill Trelawney prize for divination accurate poll forecasting goes to: no one.
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711
    edited December 2016
    Table said:

    What might happen to make an investment in Marine Le Pen worthwhile?

    If she were to go out to around 10/1, then it might make an investment worthwhile. In all polls she loses by a ratio of around 2 to 1 against both Fillon and Macron in the second rounf of voting.

    If you want a decent investment then you would be better to invest in Macron at around 6/1. He is behind both Le Pen and Fillon in the presidential polls but a recent poll suggests that 55% of the French think he would make a better President than Fillon. Surely it can only be time before that popularity is reflected in a presidential poll.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-poll-idUSKBN14C1H7


  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    tyson said:

    I see the Tories now with voter ID, ontop of registration, the boundary review etc...shameless gerrymandering that GOP would be quite jealous of......

    Well since the Boundary commission is an independent organisation with a remit to ensure equal numbers of voters in each electoral district (+-5% other than a couple of exceptions, I think we can take your irrational lunatic left-wing rantings observations with a pinch of salt.
  • tyson said:

    I see the Tories now with voter ID, ontop of registration, the boundary review etc...shameless gerrymandering that GOP would be quite jealous of......

    What comes around goes around.

    I don't remember you complaining when Labour were shamelessly gerrymandering that the Democrats would be quiet jealous of.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,225
    edited December 2016
    weejonnie said:

    Well since the Boundary commission is an independent organisation with a remit to ensure equal numbers of voters in each electoral district (+-5% other than a couple of exceptions, I think we can take your irrational lunatic left-wing rantings observations with a pinch of salt.
    But the boundaries are based on what are widely held, if not generally agreed, to be based on flawed registers.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,305
    Am looking forward to hearing that an MP has been unable to pick up Christmas gifts at a Post Office because he or she forgot to bring ID.

    Happy Christmas.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021

    But the boundaries are based on what are widely held, if not generally agreed, to be based on flawed registers.
    The registers for the new boundaries had just been updated by individual voter re-registration, where, in news that will surprise no-one, places like Tower Hamlets lost thousands of "voters".
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,305
    Has Mhairi Black MP had more difficulty buying booze than turning up at a polling station without ID?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Some muppet posted "Take an English course. Brush up on your grammar skills. Consider what the person has said, and formulate an appropriate response."

    Merry xmas to you too mate ;-)
  • Good afternoon, everyone.
  • NEW THREAD

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,908

    FWIW, Hidden Figures is best-priced to win the 2017 Best Picture Oscar, at 66/1 with Bet365 and SkyBet, where it appears about 14th down Oddschecker's very long list of candidates.
    To be fair, Peter, there are plenty of "worthy" films being touted and the biggest favourite is the feel good musical La La Land. But if Herself is any wider indicator of the voters, she thinks that Hidden Figures is up there. If it gets a good campaign behind it....
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    tyson said:

    I see the Tories now with voter ID, ontop of registration, the boundary review etc...shameless gerrymandering that GOP would be quite jealous of......

    Only gerrymandering if you think the fraudulent vote disproportionately favours one party.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited December 2016
    Sean_F said:

    Theresa May is the Mother of the Nation, from whose breasts we should suckle.
    And all this time, I thought it was the Queen !
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,260
    DavidL said:

    I really don't want it made more difficult to vote. At 65% for GE and even less for locals those that do vote are already materially different from the community as a whole. It also distorts our politicians' priorities resulting in absurd generosity to pensioners for example.

    Harvesting of postal votes is simply wrong and anything even close to this needs to be banned. On personation I would want evidence that it genuinely is an issue. Has anyone ever heard of anyone turning up to vote and finding they already have?
    That's happened to me.

    But it was a simple clerical error by the polling station clerk. My father & mother were living with me, and went to vote whilst I was at work. When I got to the polling station after work, my name had already been crossed out, as had my father's - but my mother's name hadn't. They allowed me to vote on her slot, so to speak.

    Good afternoon, everyone.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited December 2016
    These 'alt-right' people surely have to be the most pathetic people going: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/27/alt-right-donald-trump-white-supremacy-backlash
This discussion has been closed.