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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s a fallacy to presume that 60% of those who’ll actually vo

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    @Shadsy odds look remarkably correct to me.
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    Sandpit said:

    23% of Democrats polled would be 'excited' by another Clinton run in 2020.

    Blimey. Have they learnt nothing this season?

    Perhaps by 'another Clinton', they mean 'one of the clan who isn't Hillary'?
    Chelsea 2020?
    Roger Clinton

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Clinton_Jr.
    That sounds more like an activity rather than a person?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,907

    Sandpit said:

    23% of Democrats polled would be 'excited' by another Clinton run in 2020.

    Blimey. Have they learnt nothing this season?

    Perhaps by 'another Clinton', they mean 'one of the clan who isn't Hillary'?
    Chelsea 2020?
    Roger Clinton

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Clinton_Jr.
    LOL! Hadn't realised Bill made it from such a disfunctional background.

    During his brother's presidential campaign and subsequent administration, [Roger] Clinton was given the codename "Headache" by the Secret Service
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    edited December 2016
    Value on the 7/1 IMO. UKIP might decide to soft pedal if the Tories select a hard-brexit candidate.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    @Sandpit I've done a spreadsheet on who to pick next year and I'm not even playing for money :D

    Seeing as I'll either have first or second pick, it is either David Johnson or Ezekiell Elliot first up.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    23% of Democrats polled would be 'excited' by another Clinton run in 2020.

    Blimey. Have they learnt nothing this season?

    Clearly not.

    Democrats are arguing that the reason Clinton lost was due to the Russians, the FBI, fake news, etc. It has zero to do with their candidate being really shit.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,172
    edited December 2016

    Sandpit said:

    23% of Democrats polled would be 'excited' by another Clinton run in 2020.

    Blimey. Have they learnt nothing this season?

    Perhaps by 'another Clinton', they mean 'one of the clan who isn't Hillary'?
    Chelsea 2020?
    Roger Clinton

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Clinton_Jr.
    It can only be George.

    http://tinyurl.com/h3wkqw5

    On checking Wiki to see if the funkmaster was still extant, I note that the 4th vice POTUS was a George Clinton.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,082
    Sandpit said:

    23% of Democrats polled would be 'excited' by another Clinton run in 2020.

    Blimey. Have they learnt nothing this season?

    Perhaps by 'another Clinton', they mean 'one of the clan who isn't Hillary'?
    Chelsea 2020?
    Campaign manager Jose Mourinho?
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    That of course tees up the wonderful heckle from Skinner, from a time when he wasn't just a sad bitter old man:

    To Roy Jenkins, Who Pronounced His Rs as Ws

    Roy: I leave this party without rancour

    Dennis: I thought you were taking Marquand with you
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    MP_SE said:

    23% of Democrats polled would be 'excited' by another Clinton run in 2020.

    Blimey. Have they learnt nothing this season?

    Clearly not.

    Democrats are arguing that the reason Clinton lost was due to the Russians, the FBI, fake news, etc. It has zero to do with their candidate being really shit.
    Her approval ratings were as bad in Jan 2016 as they were by Nov 2016 IIRC.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    That of course tees up the wonderful heckle from Skinner, from a time when he wasn't just a sad bitter old man:

    To Roy Jenkins, Who Pronounced His Rs as Ws

    Roy: I leave this party without rancour

    Dennis: I thought you were taking Marquand with you
    :lol:
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    PlatoSaid said:

    MP_SE said:

    23% of Democrats polled would be 'excited' by another Clinton run in 2020.

    Blimey. Have they learnt nothing this season?

    Clearly not.

    Democrats are arguing that the reason Clinton lost was due to the Russians, the FBI, fake news, etc. It has zero to do with their candidate being really shit.
    Her approval ratings were as bad in Jan 2016 as they were by Nov 2016 IIRC.
    I used to think the Republicans were the party that left no stone unturned in their determination to lose elections. But, this year, the Democrats outdid them.

    Most of them seem to think they need to double down on their losing strategy of promoting left wing identity politics.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    AFP
    #BREAKING Saudi Arabia projects $52.8 billion deficit in 2017: official TV
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,082
    This quote from Lee Kuan Yew on his greatest fear for the future of Singapore reminds me of Brexit. There's obviously not an exact parallel, but it does seem as though many have lost their bearings in the way he describes.

    “I think a leadership and a people that have forgotten, that have lost their bearings and do not understand the constraints that we face. Small base; highly, technically organised; very competent people; complete international confidence; and an ability to engage the big boys. You lose those, and you’re down. And you can go down very rapidly…
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Vive Charlie
    When a 7 year old girl is really a propaganda merchant for regime change in Syria, goes too far and has to delete tweet
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    edited December 2016
    The church burning in Mississippi turned out to be a false flag by one of the congregation.

    https://apnews.com/4e14f73be8df4caf90643cd2d757054c/Arrest-in-'Vote-Trump'-burning-of-Mississippi-black-church

    But it's right wing fake news on Facebook that's the real problem.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    @williamglenn Although it might appear illogial to others, I can clearly see your reasoning (I think) for Trump/Remain. Britain is simply not the monstrous internal consumer that the USA is.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,907
    edited December 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    AFP
    #BREAKING Saudi Arabia projects $52.8 billion deficit in 2017: official TV

    They've got enough cash in the bank to run with that for about a dozen years, are scrambling now to reduce social expenditure and increase their income from non-oil sectors such as (Islamic) tourism.

    VAT arrives in the GCC countries in Jan 2018! Am waiting to see if that will affect a small businessman or not.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    edited December 2016
    Saudi GDP is $750 billion, and their debt right now is small though I think (5.90% to GDP).

    Plato's figure gives about 6% deficit I think...
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,907
    What an almighty f-up in Germany - suspect was under surveillance for months leading up to attack, slipped away a couple of weeks ago.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/22/berlin-terror-attack-tunisian-suspect-anis-amri-investigated/
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    @SandPit Hah Yes they're lucky they have Mecca for the Hajj. Do you have to pay to get near the wall these days. Islam is the world's fastest growing religion... can see Saudi squeezing the pips out of that particular trump card.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Ms. Sandy, maybe its because America is obsessed with race? " if you can't bet on an African American Christmas then its not fair.......".


    I'll see myself out......
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    Bit of love for Labour, now into 6-4 on Betfair - Tories lay price just drifted past Evens.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,637
    @nunu - Mr Sandy!

    P.S. Nunu was the pet name for one of my nieces, when she was a baby/toddler.
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    PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    The flaw in this article is it forgets the loyal 25%+ Tory remainers, minimising the impact of differential turnout. If I had to predict it I'd guess LibDems outperforming expectations and the Tories sneaking through the middle. UKIP intentionally not trying, due to a Tory leaver pick.
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited December 2016
    @Pulpstar Unless you see fantastic value crazy to bet at the moment. We don't know:

    When

    Which parties will stand

    Who will be the candidates


    I'm reminded of last December's Oldham W by-election when there was a strong move to back UKIP suported by some well-known pundits. LAB increased vote by 7.3% & came home 40.3% ahead
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    "Anis Amri offered to carry out a suicide attack several months ago, according to Spiegel magazine.

    The offer was picked up in telephone surveillance of extremist preachers who were under investigation.

    Despite the alarming nature of the offer it was not considered grounds for arrest."

    From the telegraph live blog. Stunning levels of incompetence from the German police and intelligence services. That would be an open and shut case of terrorism here.
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    sladeslade Posts: 1,932
    Straw in the wind - the Green's agent in Copeland at the GE has joined the Lib Dems.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,907
    Pulpstar said:

    @SandPit Hah Yes they're lucky they have Mecca for the Hajj. Do you have to pay to get near the wall these days. Islam is the world's fastest growing religion... can see Saudi squeezing the pips out of that particular trump card.

    Can't say I've ever been there, and they won't let a Catholic like me anywhere near Mecca!
    There's been a load of quite controversial development in the area in the past decade, huge hotels catering for year-round pilgrimages and 5* VIP Hajj trips (with no irony there at all).
    This is the view from the sacred ground now, the third tallest building in the world and a 600m monstrosity.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraj_Al_Bait
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited December 2016



    1:26PM edited 1:26PM
    @Pulpstar Unless you see fantastic value crazy to bet at the moment. We don't know:

    When

    Which parties will stand

    Who will be the candidates

    I'm reminded of last December's Oldham W by-election when there was a strong move to back UKIP suported by some well-known pundits. LAB increased vote by 7.3% & came home 40.3% ahead

    To give this political context, we are in Donald Rumsfeld territory with known knowns unknown knowns and known unknowns.

    In addition to Mikes unknowns the other one is we do not know what the narrative of the election (or nation) will be. The early rumours on Brexit negotiations? Anger / relief as Article 50 is thwarted by courts or parliament? This is a massive unknown for early 2017.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    And now for something completely different. Well, a little different take on an over analyzed event.

    Here is an article by one of the founders and top guru on naturalistic decision making (NDM - how we actually make decisions in the workplace in conditions of imperfect information, time and resource limitations, stress, fatigue, new or unfamiliar situations etc...), looking at Hillary's defeat using the tools of NDM. Nothing startlingly new in it, but an interesting approach to assessing which of the factors in her control were the main contributors to her defeat:

    https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/seeing-what-others-dont/201612/why-did-hillary-lose-the-election
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,980
    philiph said:



    1:26PM edited 1:26PM
    @Pulpstar Unless you see fantastic value crazy to bet at the moment. We don't know:

    When

    Which parties will stand

    Who will be the candidates

    I'm reminded of last December's Oldham W by-election when there was a strong move to back UKIP suported by some well-known pundits. LAB increased vote by 7.3% & came home 40.3% ahead

    To give this political context, we are in Donald Rumsfeld territory with known knowns unknown knowns and known unknowns.

    In addition to Mikes unknowns the other one is we do not know what the narrative of the election (or nation) will be. The early rumours on Brexit negotiations? Anger / relief as Article 50 is thwarted by courts or parliament? This is a massive unknown for early 2017.
    This will be before A50 is triggered, surely? Although it may be during a struggle with Parliament on a bill authorising it.
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    Sandpit said:

    What an almighty f-up in Germany - suspect was under surveillance for months leading up to attack, slipped away a couple of weeks ago.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/22/berlin-terror-attack-tunisian-suspect-anis-amri-investigated/

    That seems to be the general pattern of pretty much all recent Western terrorist attacks.
    https://theintercept.com/2015/11/18/terrorists-were-already-known-to-authorities/
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    @MikeSmithson I've been setting my book up nicely at the moment :)
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    RobD said:



    This will be before A50 is triggered, surely? Although it may be during a struggle with Parliament on a bill authorising it.


    I expect not. I believe the intention is for the resignation to take effect from end of Jan 2017.

    Add the max 3 months = End April and a May 4th election seems possible.

    If the resignation is with immediate effect, then an earlier election would be probable.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    PS re Klein article:

    His main beef with political mavens is that they seek to simplify everything down to one cause (and have hindsight bias - the unexpected event in hindsight looks inevitable when it was not). He sees the need to simplify, but not overly so. I like his last couple of sentences:

    "If we can’t be smarter in hindsight, it reflects badly on us. When political commentators resort to single-cause explanations, they are not doing us a service. Hopefully we can use the election post-mortems to learn how to simplify without oversimplifying."

    PPS His techniques are used in promoting performance and in analysis of workplace accidents.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,013
    MTimT said:

    And now for something completely different. Well, a little different take on an over analyzed event.

    Here is an article by one of the founders and top guru on naturalistic decision making (NDM - how we actually make decisions in the workplace in conditions of imperfect information, time and resource limitations, stress, fatigue, new or unfamiliar situations etc...), looking at Hillary's defeat using the tools of NDM. Nothing startlingly new in it, but an interesting approach to assessing which of the factors in her control were the main contributors to her defeat:

    https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/seeing-what-others-dont/201612/why-did-hillary-lose-the-election

    What an excellent article.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    Just did my public sector finance update (possibly my last piece of work until the end of January!). The be projection is £63-64bn deficit at the end of the year, would be £6bn under the OBR projection and knocks £30bn off the £122bn additional borrowing conjured up in the AS.
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    As has been noted earlier it is the Remainers that have been underperforming the EUref shares. The premise of the thread is perhaps false, since one of the correlations in the vote was age. The high turnout of the EUref meant that likely more younger voters turned out than normal. Not sure they'll turn up in a by-election. Indeed the high postal vote in Sleaford would tend to suggest it is the oldies who will be over-represented.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,907
    MTimT said:

    And now for something completely different. Well, a little different take on an over analyzed event.

    Here is an article by one of the founders and top guru on naturalistic decision making (NDM - how we actually make decisions in the workplace in conditions of imperfect information, time and resource limitations, stress, fatigue, new or unfamiliar situations etc...), looking at Hillary's defeat using the tools of NDM. Nothing startlingly new in it, but an interesting approach to assessing which of the factors in her control were the main contributors to her defeat:

    https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/seeing-what-others-dont/201612/why-did-hillary-lose-the-election

    That's a fantastic essay.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,980
    MaxPB said:

    Just did my public sector finance update (possibly my last piece of work until the end of January!). The be projection is £63-64bn deficit at the end of the year, would be £6bn under the OBR projection and knocks £30bn off the £122bn additional borrowing conjured up in the AS.

    Despite Brexit? :D
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just did my public sector finance update (possibly my last piece of work until the end of January!). The be projection is £63-64bn deficit at the end of the year, would be £6bn under the OBR projection and knocks £30bn off the £122bn additional borrowing conjured up in the AS.

    Despite Brexit? :D
    Definitely would be written as a "despite Brexit" story in April when the final data is released.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,333
    MaxPB said:

    Just did my public sector finance update (possibly my last piece of work until the end of January!). The be projection is £63-64bn deficit at the end of the year, would be £6bn under the OBR projection and knocks £30bn off the £122bn additional borrowing conjured up in the AS.

    You'd get a shock if your new employers, with typical Swiss efficiency, asked you as a condition of employment, for all your social media aliases...
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just did my public sector finance update (possibly my last piece of work until the end of January!). The be projection is £63-64bn deficit at the end of the year, would be £6bn under the OBR projection and knocks £30bn off the £122bn additional borrowing conjured up in the AS.

    You'd get a shock if your new employers, with typical Swiss efficiency, asked you as a condition of employment, for all your social media aliases...
    They already have! I had to disclose PB. The only condition was not to stray into investment advice, which is pretty much the same as now.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,333
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just did my public sector finance update (possibly my last piece of work until the end of January!). The be projection is £63-64bn deficit at the end of the year, would be £6bn under the OBR projection and knocks £30bn off the £122bn additional borrowing conjured up in the AS.

    You'd get a shock if your new employers, with typical Swiss efficiency, asked you as a condition of employment, for all your social media aliases...
    They already have! I had to disclose PB. The only condition was not to stray into investment advice, which is pretty much the same as now.
    Ha! V sensible. Enjoy your time off before you start.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,907
    Britain moves from tenth to fifth in Forbes magazine's 'Best place to do business' annual survey.

    #DespiteBrexit obviously. ;)

    http://order-order.com/2016/12/22/uk-shoots-up-business-league-table/
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    MaxPB: "Just did my public sector finance update (possibly my last piece of work until the end of January!). The be projection is £63-64bn deficit at the end of the year, would be £6bn under the OBR projection and knocks £30bn off the £122bn additional borrowing conjured up in the AS."

    That would be a happier back-drop to a snap election.....
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    The top five in that Forbes list are Sweden, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Ireland and the UK.

    So top serious economy in the world, then....
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,082

    The top five in that Forbes list are Sweden, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Ireland and the UK.

    So top serious economy in the world, then....

    3 EU members in the top 5?
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    PlatoSaid said:

    AFP
    #BREAKING Saudi Arabia projects $52.8 billion deficit in 2017: official TV

    Terrible. But lower than Tory Britain after 6 years.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Off Topic.
    If anyone in the west thinks that the Iranian regime can be changed from within, think again.

    https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/9597/iran-reform
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    surbiton said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    AFP
    #BREAKING Saudi Arabia projects $52.8 billion deficit in 2017: official TV

    Terrible. But lower than Tory Britain after 6 years.
    Yeah the Saudis were lucky that Gordon Brown didn't ruin their economy for ten years.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Just taken a £100's worth of Betfair's 2.66 on Labour. I can't see why Labour aren't favourites here.

    Having said that, my recent record on by-elections has been dire!

    I found the odds yesterday very odd !
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Sandpit said:
    He should put his money where his mouth is.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    edited December 2016

    The top five in that Forbes list are Sweden, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Ireland and the UK.

    So top serious economy in the world, then....

    3 EU members in the top 5?
    One Eurozone member though.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited December 2016
    MM

    "The top five in that Forbes list are Sweden, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Ireland and the UK.

    So top serious economy in the world, then...."

    3 of the top 5 in the EU.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    edited December 2016
    @Surbiton Nice early christmas present from Hills to open the book up with the Tories and Labour at only 84% of the market.

    They had UKIP at a 20% chance ! Too high.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,980
    .
    Roger said:

    "The top five in that Forbes list are Sweden, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Ireland and the UK.

    So top serious economy in the world, then...."

    3 of the top 5 in the EU.

    Soon to be 2... ;)
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    glw said:

    surbiton said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    AFP
    #BREAKING Saudi Arabia projects $52.8 billion deficit in 2017: official TV

    Terrible. But lower than Tory Britain after 6 years.
    Yeah the Saudis were lucky that Gordon Brown didn't ruin their economy for ten years.
    You mean the lowest average debt to GDP ratio. It was even lower than Germany before the Tories took over.

    In these six years the Tories have borrowed more than all Labour governments put together did since the War.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Lol. Mr.Sandy, I always imagined you as a woman for some reason. I think because of the name. I did think you were too funny for a woman.....


    ...ducks for cover.
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    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    surbiton Posts: 9,081
    2:46PM
    glw said:
    » show previous quotes
    Yeah the Saudis were lucky that Gordon Brown didn't ruin their economy for ten years.
    You mean the lowest average debt to GDP ratio. It was even lower than Germany before the Tories took over.

    In these six years the Tories have borrowed more than all Labour governments put together did since the War.


    I think we all agree the Tories should have cut far far harder than they did.
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited December 2016
    surbiton said:

    glw said:

    surbiton said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    AFP
    #BREAKING Saudi Arabia projects $52.8 billion deficit in 2017: official TV

    Terrible. But lower than Tory Britain after 6 years.
    Yeah the Saudis were lucky that Gordon Brown didn't ruin their economy for ten years.
    You mean the lowest average debt to GDP ratio. It was even lower than Germany before the Tories took over.
    In these six years the Tories have borrowed more than all Labour governments put together did since the War.
    I accept that Osborne could have done a better job but he was only a part time chancellor. That said your silly point indicates that you have no concept of momentum and run-rate? Or are you just posting click bait?
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    surbiton said:

    glw said:

    surbiton said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    AFP
    #BREAKING Saudi Arabia projects $52.8 billion deficit in 2017: official TV

    Terrible. But lower than Tory Britain after 6 years.
    Yeah the Saudis were lucky that Gordon Brown didn't ruin their economy for ten years.
    You mean the lowest average debt to GDP ratio. It was even lower than Germany before the Tories took over.

    In these six years the Tories have borrowed more than all Labour governments put together did since the War.
    And Labour squealed about every attempt made to reduce borrowing.

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    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    surbiton said:

    You mean the lowest average debt to GDP ratio. It was even lower than Germany before the Tories took over.

    In these six years the Tories have borrowed more than all Labour governments put together did since the War.

    Labour gave us the largest deficit for about 80 years, cleaning up that mess has proven very difficult as you well know. But please do keep on pretending that Labour did a good job on the economy, because until Labour supporters can talk honestly about the mess they left behind they are unlikely to be elected again.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    glw said:

    surbiton said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    AFP
    #BREAKING Saudi Arabia projects $52.8 billion deficit in 2017: official TV

    Terrible. But lower than Tory Britain after 6 years.
    Yeah the Saudis were lucky that Gordon Brown didn't ruin their economy for ten years.
    You mean the lowest average debt to GDP ratio. It was even lower than Germany before the Tories took over.
    In these six years the Tories have borrowed more than all Labour governments put together did since the War.
    I accept that Osborne could have done a better job but he was only a part time chancellor. That said your silly point indicates that you have no concept of momentum and run-rate? Or are you just posting click bait?
    Clearly the facts worry you. You are not denying it like you guys deny that the entire developed world [ 22 out of 24 OECD ] countries went into the deepest recession since the 30's because of your blind hatred of anything Labour.
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    Good afternoon, everyone.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549

    I accept that Osborne could have done a better job but he was only a part time chancellor. That said your silly point indicates that you have no concept of momentum and run-rate? Or are you just posting click bait?

    Six years on since they were booted out and Labour supporters are still in complete denial. It's quite something.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    edited December 2016
    Is government spending ever broken down into the following ?

    Labour (Wages, Tax, NI, pension contributions etc of Doctors, nurses, teachers, admin etc)
    Capital spend (School buildings, hospitals)
    Material overheads (Scalpels, print cartridges and so on)
    Cash out (Welfare payments, Housing benefit, pensions and so forth)
    Interest payments
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Cameron and Osborne in opposition said that we should not bail out the banks.They also said they would match Labours spending and we should be following the Irish tiger economy.pb Tories forget all that b's.
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    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    glw said:

    surbiton said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    AFP
    #BREAKING Saudi Arabia projects $52.8 billion deficit in 2017: official TV

    Terrible. But lower than Tory Britain after 6 years.
    Yeah the Saudis were lucky that Gordon Brown didn't ruin their economy for ten years.
    You mean the lowest average debt to GDP ratio. It was even lower than Germany before the Tories took over.
    In these six years the Tories have borrowed more than all Labour governments put together did since the War.
    I accept that Osborne could have done a better job but he was only a part time chancellor. That said your silly point indicates that you have no concept of momentum and run-rate? Or are you just posting click bait?
    Clearly the facts worry you. You are not denying it like you guys deny that the entire developed world [ 22 out of 24 OECD ] countries went into the deepest recession since the 30's because of your blind hatred of anything Labour.
    I make a balanced point and you accuse me of blind hatred of Labour. Sheesh, you must be uncomfortable at social gatherings.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,013
    Yorkcity said:

    Cameron and Osborne in opposition said that we should not bail out the banks.They also said they would match Labours spending and we should be following the Irish tiger economy.pb Tories forget all that b's.

    I wish people would use the more accurate "bail out the banks customers"
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    Mr. City, whoa there, crazy horse. I seem the recall (circa 2007) them backing Brown's recapitalisation, indeed, calling for it before it happened.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,082
    Yorkcity said:

    Cameron and Osborne in opposition said that we should not bail out the banks.They also said they would match Labours spending and we should be following the Irish tiger economy.pb Tories forget all that b's.

    The Irish tiger economy came through the crisis and is now booming. PIGS really can fly.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/12/irish-economic-growth-revised-figures-foreign-investment-aircraft
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited December 2016
    How this sorry saga will end.....

    Wild currency fluctuations in March '17...... Government panic..... Leading Brexiteer comes out to recant and say he made a serious mistake...... Gove says it was wrecked by government indecision ....calls for May to resign...£ sinks to parity with the dollar...Scotland calls for second independence referendum IMMEDIATELY.....£ continues to fall...Hammond CALLS emergency budget.....Boris resigns followed by Fox......May calls Red White and Blue election...Her leadership is challenged by Davis....there's a run on Irish passports...... Farage is appointed US ambassador

    Corbyn and Farron win the most seats and form the second Lib Lab pact. Corbyn cycles to the palace



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    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    Yorkcity said:

    Cameron and Osborne in opposition said that we should not bail out the banks.They also said they would match Labours spending and we should be following the Irish tiger economy.pb Tories forget all that b's.

    As a principle banks shouldn't be bailed out, and indeed we are now arguably in a position where every bank knows full well it can rely on the tax payer to prop it up. That is not a good thing, no matter how necessary some of the bail outs were. I'd score that as a half mark.

    The Celtic Tiger BS has been blown apart, and nobody would try to defend that any more. I'll give you that one.

    Meanwhile Labour supporters still kid themselves that a deficit of 10% was basically "quite a good job done". I can't fathom how anyone sees Brown as anything other than a total disaster.
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    Roger said:

    How this sorry saga will end.....
    Wild currency fluctuations in March '17...... Government panic..... Leading Brexiteer comes out to recant and say he made a serious mistake...... Gove says it was wrecked by government indecision ....calls for May to resign...£ sinks to parity with the dollar...Scotland calls for second independence referendum IMMEDIATELY.....£ continues to fall...Hammond CALLS emergency budget.....Boris resigns followed by Fox......May calls Red White and Blue election...Her leadership is challenged by Davis....there's a run on Irish passports...... Farage is appointed US ambassador
    Corbyn and Farron win the most seats and form the second Lib Lab pact

    Real News. Terrible for whinging remoaners.
    Simon Richards @simplysimontfa
    UK car production smashes 17-year record making more than 1.6m motors http://dailym.ai/2h4OcJt via @ThisIsMoney
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549

    Yorkcity said:

    Cameron and Osborne in opposition said that we should not bail out the banks.They also said they would match Labours spending and we should be following the Irish tiger economy.pb Tories forget all that b's.

    The Irish tiger economy came through the crisis and is now booming. PIGS really can fly.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/12/irish-economic-growth-revised-figures-foreign-investment-aircraft
    Ireland had far bigger budget cuts than anything seen here, so be careful what you wish for.
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    Mr. Glenn, and Greece?
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    Yorkcity said:

    Cameron and Osborne in opposition said that we should not bail out the banks.They also said they would match Labours spending and we should be following the Irish tiger economy.pb Tories forget all that b's.

    History does not agree with you Mr City - David Cameron's 2008 speech.

    One important judgement call for us as an Opposition Party was whether to support the re-capitalisation of our banks with billions of pounds of taxpayers' money.

    We did support that – and my Party backed the decision, united and strong.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2008/oct/17/davidcameron-economy
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    edited December 2016
    @glw I think the FSCS protections on "banks" are quite right, but government involvement should end there.

    Companies, higher net worth individuals & people in business should consider the security of their bank(s) as part of the normal due diligence they would do so for any customer or supplier.

    It would be healthier in the long run, but it'll never happen.
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Can not see Labour winning this by election in Feb march or April.However if it is in May on same day as council elections they might hold it.Similar to last year when they did better than most forecasts and winning the London and Bristol mayoralities .Which seemed to me that many who were writing Labour obituaries was a bit premature .Many were saying the same in 92 then doing a full reverse and writing off the Conservatives in 97.It is hard to predict next year never mind 2020.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,082

    Mr. Glenn, and Greece?

    Greece's problems are of a different nature. Was anybody saying we should copy Greece in 2005?
    glw said:

    Ireland had far bigger budget cuts than anything seen here, so be careful what you wish for.

    What makes you think I'd oppose more drastic cuts?
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549

    History does not agree with you Mr City - David Cameron's 2008 speech.

    One important judgement call for us as an Opposition Party was whether to support the re-capitalisation of our banks with billions of pounds of taxpayers' money.

    We did support that – and my Party backed the decision, united and strong.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2008/oct/17/davidcameron-economy

    It's probably more accurate to say that they opposed the nationalisation of Northern Rock, but backed the bail outs of RBS, Lloyds etc.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pulpstar said:

    @glw I think the FSCS protections on "banks" are quite right, but government involvement should end there.

    Companies, higher net worth individuals & people in business should consider the security of their bank(s) as part of the normal due diligence they would do so for any customer or supplier.

    It would be healthier in the long run, but it'll never happen.

    From the flows we observe, HNWIs do consider security of the bank as a key part of their decision making process. You might be surprised by their conclusion though!
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    Mr. Glenn, you picked one of the PIIGS that's now 'flying', which did paint a somewhat misleading picture. Ireland's done very well to turn things around. The other PIIGS are in varying states.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549

    What makes you think I'd oppose more drastic cuts?

    Fair enough if you do, but usually when someone says "but Ireland" they don't think of the overnight 10% pay cuts and so on. No way would Labour have supported any action like that.
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Simon your party opposed the the bail out of Northern rock.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    Pulpstar said:

    @glw I think the FSCS protections on "banks" are quite right, but government involvement should end there.

    I'd basically agree with that, but we have too many "too big to fail" banks. It's a right old mess.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453


    Real News. Terrible for whinging remoaners.
    Simon Richards @simplysimontfa
    UK car production smashes 17-year record making more than 1.6m motors http://dailym.ai/2h4OcJt via @ThisIsMoney

    Why?

    We have a weak pound (Brexiteers keep telling us how great that is) and we ARE STILL PART OF THE CUSTOMS UNION.

    If we leave, car manufacturing will be devastated. You will notice we haven't left yet...
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    @Pulpstar Generally Hills over-estimate UKIP's capabilities
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    Pulpstar said:

    @glw I think the FSCS protections on "banks" are quite right, but government involvement should end there.

    Companies, higher net worth individuals & people in business should consider the security of their bank(s) as part of the normal due diligence they would do so for any customer or supplier.

    It would be healthier in the long run, but it'll never happen.

    They issue is that as a businessman it's nice and easy to say we should do due diligence and so we should. But if I think my bank is secure then suddenly lose the money in my bank account then I'm not the only one to lose out. Without those funds how do I pay my suppliers? For that matter how do I pay my staff their wages?

    Cash funds in a bank account should be as secure as cash in hand.

    Doesn't mean banks shouldn't be able to fail. It should be possible to have a further enhance FSCS style scheme to secure the cash in bank accounts but mean that the shares in the bank, the wages of those working for the bank etc etc are as vulnerable as any other business that may fail.
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Morris I know it easier in opposition but in 2007 I remember. Cameron saying he would equal Labour spending also calling for more health visitors midwife's and defence spending and less regulation in the financial sector.Also been against Heathrow third runway.As I said before he was a man with no successful legacy as it was hard to know what he believed.
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    Scott_P said:


    Real News. Terrible for whinging remoaners.
    Simon Richards @simplysimontfa
    UK car production smashes 17-year record making more than 1.6m motors http://dailym.ai/2h4OcJt via @ThisIsMoney

    Why?

    We have a weak pound (Brexiteers keep telling us how great that is) and we ARE STILL PART OF THE CUSTOMS UNION.

    If we leave, car manufacturing will be devastated. You will notice we haven't left yet...
    Your side lost, but you will never get over it. All those thousands of re-posts you toiled away on in 2016. For what purpose? To prove that your judgement was wrong.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited December 2016
    Yorkcity said:

    Simon your party opposed the the bail out of Northern rock.

    The bailout of Northern Rock was a complete shambles. Between them, Brown and Darling dithered for weeks, making a manageable problem into a major crisis. Mervyn King thought it wasn't his problem, which was sort-of right given that the half-wit who by then was, alas, Prime Minister, had explicitly removed oversight of the stability of the banking system from the BoE's remit. The Financial Services Authority, obsessed with idiotic compliance forms and grannies producing gas bills to access their savings, thought it was nothing much to do with them either.

    Osborne, quite correctly, pointed this out. Indeed, Peter Lilley, his predecessor as Shadow Chancellor had famously warned, in 1997, of exactly how Brown's fiddling with bank regulation would turn out.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    For what purpose?

    I do it for the adulation of my fans. Like you :smile:
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    Mr. City, the financial crisis and recession completely changed the political landscape. Going into the election, the Conservative and Labour platforms (overtly, at least) were substantially different.
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Rcs100 apologies you are correct bail out the banks customers. I did not agree with Alistair Darling bailing out customers getting a high rate outside the UK the Icelandic Banks.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946
    Parish council elections in the SW? Different kettle of fish entirely.

    4th or 5th for LDs in Copeland?
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    Scott_P said:

    For what purpose?

    I do it for the adulation of my fans. Like you :smile:
    :heartbreak:
This discussion has been closed.