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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s a fallacy to presume that 60% of those who’ll actually vote in the Copeland by-election will have backed
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Comments
The Irish government refused, and said they would rather go bust and crash out the Eurozone than change their tax policy.
For this reason, I doubt the treaties will be changed any time soon. Low corporate tax rates are such a crucial part of the success of Ireland, Malta and others, that none of these countries will cut their own throats. Instead, what's happened is that the French, Italians, etc are all cutting their own corporate tax rates. As the gap naturally narrows, the pressure for change diminishes.
But I think the overall point is true.
Is the general consensus on here that this is by-election is a good test of Corbyn?
And if he comes through it well... Will that shift some convictions that he is unlectable... Or at least that he is an inevitable electoral disaster?
That will clear one hurdle, but will Corbyn then dare to visit? You can imagine the press conference ... "Mr Corbyn, what is you view on Sellafield?"
The only by-election where the referendum was a large issue resulted in the Remain candidate significantly under-performing the local Remain vote, whilst the Leave candidate significantly out-performed the local Leave vote. And yet you've used that same result to claim the yellow peril (and labour if they're daft enough to draft a remainer) will out-perform the Remain vote this time.
Non sequitor I'm afraid.
Good for the Irish for calling the bluff. Balls of steel in that situation.
Still in my view the likely direction of EU travel is towards harmonising where they can. "Ever closer union" and all that. It has a perfect logic of course, if the end goal is a full union, and it's a perfectly respectable thing for folk to campaign for and openly convince others. I personally don't want that, and I think the EU would do itself a service if it was more open about such aims rather than giving the appearance of doing it all round the back door.
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/12/vice-signalling.html
If you look at the stats, Maarsh is right. Remain won far more easily than the Lib Dems in Richmond, so the claim that Leavers turned out more in the ref, and the inference that Remain parties will outperform the Ref result, is not backed up by reality.
If the Lib Dems do well, Mike's not unreasonable expectation is that will take votes from Labour and hand the seat to the Tories.
As I said last night, the Tories could win this seat by standing still.
In Richmond the Lib Dems had great growth in vote share, boosting that chart, but if they're the voice of the 48%, then the performance was terrible for Remain which should have been hitting 70% in Richmond.
It is considered polite to discuss a thread header you know, at least for the first few posts.
If Con go back 10 that is 26%, Lab back 6 yields 36%. UKIP back 4 yields 11%.
Clearly all those can't happen.
That gives
Lab 36%
Con 26%
UKIP 11%
LD 11%
Green 3%
Others 2%
Say
Which sums through to 89%
UKIP started out on roughly the same % here as Sleaford, and only went back 2 there.
So perhaps we can see the same here - UKIP 13%. 11% would be a decent increase in actual votes for the Lib Dems and so I can't push them up any more.
That means Lab/Con need to sum to 61% whereas it heads to 52% at the moment.
A completely different method of analysis from Hykeham (% vote retention) leads to Tories 40%, Lab 30%.
Splitting the difference on the Lab gives 33%, splitting to the Tories gives 33%. Perhaps UKIP will field a better candidate though (Ayling was dire), and even head forward. UKIP +2% to 17% maybe - they went forward in Oldham but the Tory vote collapsed... The Tories start much stronger here.
Now we're at:
Lab ??%
Con ??%
UKIP 17%
LD 11%
Green 3%
Others 2%
A good candidate might be able to stop the rot for Labour
Con 33.5; Lab 33.5
UKIP 17
LD 11
Green 3
Others 2
^_~
Please god no. No more effing stupid internet lingo please.
I have yet to hear a single person vocalise the phrase virtue signalling. I doubt I will ever hear 'vice signalling' away from the weirdo world of internet forums either. Ditto SJW, handwaving, and the utterly moronic 'waycist'.
The trouble is that as it stands it is impossible to work out why Labour is doing so badly. Is it the disloyalty of the plotters? Is it failing to get its message over? Does it need to change its message? Would things be fine with another leader?
If 2016 has taught us anything it is that nobody knows anything. As it stands it isn't impossible that Corbyn is the only factor that is keeping the Labour vote up even as high as it is. Given that activists in all parties are prone to believe what they want to believe if they possibly can, I don't see any result from this by election shifting their support for him. I don't think they are right, but what do I know?
Or people could just endeavour to speak English instead?
LibDems had a dire 2015 election and as is predictable are recovering.
Tory are still in power and as is predictable suffer vote loss in by elections.
UKIP are in turmoil and as expected are seeing a reduced vote.
Labour are unelectable and as expected are shedding voters in all directions.
The unknown in this by election is how the debate will have moved on from 'Remainers' vs 'Leavers'
We will be in a different situation where those labels will have become historic and irrelevant.
We will be post Article 50 so the debate will be far more focused on the issues, terms and media coverage of the negotiations. There will no longer be any point in identification as 'Remainer' or 'Leaver'
This election will be the first of a new period where leaving the EU is tangible as the process will be started and the clock ticking.
The question will be do the electorate buy into the LibDem second referendum on the terms idea or the proposition of the Labour, UKIP or Tory party?
It is a new canvas for our politicians to paint for us. Who will have the artwork that we are most attracted to?
I've often thought that death would be preferable to life without parole in some of the US maximum security prisons. Spending every waking hour in a small concrete sound-proofed cell, with artificial light, where you will never see the outside world again, must be hell.
In the past some posters seemed to struggle that Mike and I are two different people with differing opinions and interpretations of things.
What 60% leave does give us, though, is an indication of the temper of the constituency, and a suggestion that the owls-for-immigrants-transgender-rights-for-Palestine agenda of the leadership might not reflect the mood of Whitehaven's labour voters.
Corbyn is safe IMO, a loss would be blamed on the previous MP conduct /criticism of leadership
Assuming the CLP pick a local pro nuclear Leaver...
Pick a Remain CND sort and it's all to play for
Rather than coining dimwit buzz phrases like 'virtue signalling' and 'vice signalling' which mean nothing – absolutely nothing – to the 95% of people who don't spend their lives among the nerds of internet forums.
SJW, handwaving and the moron detector 'waycist' (thanks to TSE for the moron detector bit) fall into the same category.
OGH is suggesting they should increase their vote share, which is almost certain, but he's not suggesting they will win.
Apologies if I've misunderstand.
It is impossible. Check his approval ratings: they're amongst the worst of any leader of the opposition, ever. There may well be other reasons that Labour's massively under-performing where an opposition should be at this stage if it has aspirations of government or simply of just making gains next time - indeed, there are other reasons, including those you note - but Corbyn is chief among them, not least because his leadership is so tied up with policy and with an unruly PLP.
Labour can decide whether they want to win this or not.
The LDs can point to any increase and claim improvement. No real incentive to over invest.
Conservatives, if they lose, can shrug and point out that Governments don't win by-elections from the Opposition. Plus, if they win, it could destabilise Corbyn. No real incentive to over invest.
Labour has to choose how they play this. The wrong candidate could lose this (I expect this to be a very local campaign).
I would say that normally Labour would be keen to ensure a win. But Corbyn's Labour gives off a vibe of not really caring about electoral success.
Edit: Leave v Remain won't be particularly salient in this election.
What happens if the Lib Dems do well, really well - perhaps 11% is not the ceiling here. Say maybe 17% even, UKIP ~ 17% too
That leaves 61% for Con + Lab
The biggest Con/Lab swing so far of the three elections was 2.2% to Con in Sleaford. That was more leavy, and Labour turnout would be extremely unmotivated there.
Lab 31%, Con 30% here maybe.
This would fit almost all the narratives:
A swing to Con - a very good result for the Lib Dems, a poor result for UKIP (Just 3rd, not heading backwards in terms of vote %), Labour winning but down to a historically low vote %.
Tories poised to collect (If no boundary reviews) at the GE - like Eastleigh.
& With that reasoning I've backed £20 of Labour @ 2.58 to rebalance slightly.
Lab 31%
Con 30%
UKIP 17.5%
Lib Dem 16.5%
Green 3%
Others 2%
I think the thread title is missing a final word ('Leave')
Sure, Brexit is the "big" issue in UK politics at the moment, but there are lots of people who vote on the basis of the NHS, or the top rate of tax, or local bus services in their town etc. Those people haven't suddenly gone away. It is often forgotten that the vast majority of people who voted in June haven't been squawking about it incessantly on political websites and Twitter ever since - often, it just isn't that big an issue on their personal agenda.
So Labour will target large numbers of people who feel left behind and ignored by the Government who happened to vote Leave, while the Tories will similarly target plenty of people who would prefer May as PM than Corbyn, notwithstanding that they voted to Remain.
Their vote seems more resilient oop North than polls suggest it should be.
There has been less wall to wall negativity in the media over the past couple of months or so since JC has been re-elected, as a at least some kind of temporary truce appears to have been called by the PLP. This may start being reflected in the polls, the one last week which showed Labour recovering to GE 2015 was quickly called an outlier by many on here and it might well have been, but it is is also just possible that it could be the first signs of a reaction to the scaling down of hostilities against Corbyn recently by the PLP and also in the media.
Article 50 should have been instigated by then and we will probably be in the early stages of our negotiations with the EU and as in all negotiations, neither side is likely to be giving much ground in the early stages, so there is likely to be a lot of frustration that perhaps the government are not making much positive progress towards a less bumpy Brexit.
The election is likely to come a few weeks after the March budget and it is unlikely to provide too much cheer. Inflation is also likely to be creeping up a little.
All in all, this far out, I would say it is a toss-up which, depending upon events and the candidates chosen, could go either way. For that reason, at this stage, the value has to be with Labour in the betting markets.
We are not static, unless 2017 is going to be the antithesis of 2016, so expect the unexpected. The magnification of a single issue (or two) will have an effect, the debate will move on quickly. I don't anticipate having many 'typical' elections in 2017 which can be predicted by past electoral behaviour.
"CD13 - no, his specific conclusion is that Remain voters will turn out more than Leave voters,"
I'd say that it wasn't a conclusion. "The signs are" may be a little presumptuous, but it may be correct.
Tim's big idea is to connect with the hard-core Remainers. It may work, but it's not a prequel to "Go back and prepare for government." It's a stabilising position, and possibly a way to need more than two taxis.
I suspect Ms Plato et al are correct. It hinges on the Labour candidate. Go on, Jezza, go for broke and make it really interesting.
I guess we'll all get a better idea once we see the candidates in the new year, if Labour find a sensible candidate (shop steward from Sellafield?) then it's going to be a great fight.
My prediction is that Con take the seat by the narrowest of margins, on a reduced vote share and lower turnout.
PS. Didn't get on the 5/4 in the end last night, so opening the book with Lab at 6/4 this morning.
Yes, I am now of the view that nothing at all will dislodge Corbyn. He could lose three seats at by-elections and would still cling on - McDonnell won't let him leave as to do so would end the far-left project at the top of the party. No far leftie will ever get the requisite nominations again.
How can Labour put off the writ until May?
I think he is to cease his term as MP at the end of January.
+ 3 months = end of April, so 4th May is logical
And belated happy birthday for a couple of days ago.
The US criminal justice system does seem to be horribly vindictive. Brutalisation and rape of prisoners are part of the punishment.
Con 6/5
Lab 6/5
LD 20/1 (lost deposit 2015, no matter how well they're doing now)
UKIP 100/1 (no activists, internal chaos, poor FPTP track record)
Oth 28/1 (in case the local mayor fancies a run).
Wouldn't take much to throw a spanner in the works though, as the writ can be moved by any MP, at any time after the resignation of the incumbent. Maybe the Greens or UKIP might do so in this case, forcing the by-election for early March?
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/12/its-weird-when-your-friend-becomes-leader-of-the-free-world/
If Labour pick a pro-nuclear candidate then I can see no way in which the greens or Lib Dems could stand aside and let labour hoover up the whole 40% of the "progressive" vote (which could be enough to see them over the line).
On the other side if the Tories pick a soft-Brexit candidate then I don't see how UKIP could soft pedal.
The choice of candidates is incredibly important here, will be interesting to see the choices.
Would make the perfect Labour candidate - if we want to lose the seat.
One series well worth catching is I Survived on CBS Reality. The crimes are appalling and the victim miraculously lived. The sentences run from almost a relative wrist slap to hundreds of years or death penalty.
If I'd experienced the victim's suffering, I'd be livid at the lenient ones.
If the Parliament runs it full course until 2020 the incumbent will become unemployed at that time as the seat will vanish in the boundary review. A three year appointment.
Hardly the place for a young thrusting ambitious candidate. Reputationally you may stand to loose more than you gain if the election does not provide you with a good result.
It may be a seat for a few of the tired old time serving uninspiring dull boring candidates that boost turnout to a maximum of 40%
Corbyn as PM would be 24 carat comedy gold so I would like it happen on that basis though I fear it won't.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/21/labour-mp-jamie-reed-quits-sparking-copeland-by-election/
A by-election a month throughout 2017 would be brilliant!
Most journeys are over the 5 hour mark but some journeys are routed via Carlise for additional scenic interest.
Probably better to drive.
It looks difficult to attract helpers from across the country.
It's not my idea of justice
Having said that, my recent record on by-elections has been dire!
Perhaps they think the local pastor might be able to influence the result.
Blimey. Have they learnt nothing this season?
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/could-labour-lose-a-seat-to-a-tory-government-for-the-first-time-since-1982-a7488781.html
Donald Trump's favorability is now in positive territory : 52-48.
Weird how that's not making any news.
https://t.co/pscuxv8Aif
Over 3,200 are serving life without parole for nonviolent offenses - of whom 80 percent are in for drug-related convictions....
Sean's mate from last night ought to take a few Republican congressmen out for dinner.
:-)
The US fantasy football betting scheme is on the verge of collapse.
And we know that the odds see all wrong on the share-style ones = if it looks to good to be true...
The "Shares in events" markets I've never really understood, but I'm in a place where all the bookies' websites are blocked yet BF Exchange is somehow different enough to be okay.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Clinton_Jr.