Any markets on whether Maria Miller will get reshuffled ?
Cameron set himself a 30% target for ministers to be female - if he dumps Miller - he's making this harder to achieve. Given this is DCMS, I'm not that bothered if she stays until GE2015 - only a black swan will get her onto the box over something that actually matters.
I mean really - John Inverdale being a bit 1960s? I can't believe she doesn't have anything better to do. Who advised her to do this? Shoot them.
Surprised (well, not really) that half the gender-restricted clubs in the UK having women-only members got the briefest of mentions.
It's rather ironic that in seeming to battle sexism the article and media coverage more broadly focuses only on male-only membership clubs and practically ignores the women-only clubs.
There are two issues here: should gender-only clubs be allowed, and should a gender-restricted club be able to host a major sporting event?
To the first, I firmly believe that clubs should be able to set their own membership rules, including gender- and, for that matter, racial- or religious-restrictions. If other people don't like it, then they are free to campaign against those clubs and policies, and to publicise and condemn individual's membership of them. If there is a social stigma attached to membership, then policies will change (or resignations and non-renewals will follow).
The second question is a different matter. Hosting a major tournament is an honour and an explicit endorsement of that club's attitudes and policies. The culture of the club will inevitably reflect onto the sport which has chosen it to showcase itself. There shouldn't be a place for endorsed discrimination by sporting authorities, where the element of choice doesn't exist.
Godfrey Bloom (@Goddersukip) 18/07/2013 08:25 Salmond/Miller: 50% of single sex golf clubs are women only, is that sexist? I can't join Cambridge Uni Ospreys, is that sexist?
He can't join the women's rowing squad either. Looks like he's missed the point.
What is wrong with private clubs deciding who they have as members, based on whatever they like?
Are golf clubs allowed to exclude Gays,Jews and Blacks in UKIP world? Don't argue that you believe in an absolute principle unless you mean it.
All of the above can and have played at Muirfield.
Mosques and chapels don't allow women or gays to run the services - where is your moral indignation there ?
The whole falling crime thing is really peculiar - it didn't rise as expected during the Bust which no one could really explain and now its falling like a stone.
I'm increasingly wondering if the weird explanation that its all about lead in petrol that's behind it. Or abortions. Or something else apparently unconnected with what the police actually do.
ONS @statisticsONS #Crime in England & Wales fell 9% in the year to March according to the crime survey, while recorded crime fell 7% bit.ly/18njLZb
Today did a 'compare & contrast' of 'falling Police numbers' with 'falling crime' and had someone from the Police Federation getting duffed up by a Police Commissioner over his whinging......
Mark Easton tweets: "Police are doing a brilliant job. We asked them to do more with less and they are doing that. I want to thank them." David Cameron"
Funny what happens when you focus on outcomes, (falling crime) not inputs (number of Policemen)......and another Labour fox is taken out and shot.....anyone seen Mrs Balls?
Godfrey Bloom (@Goddersukip) 18/07/2013 08:25 Salmond/Miller: 50% of single sex golf clubs are women only, is that sexist? I can't join Cambridge Uni Ospreys, is that sexist?
He can't join the women's rowing squad either. Looks like he's missed the point.
What is wrong with private clubs deciding who they have as members, based on whatever they like?
Are golf clubs allowed to exclude Gays,Jews and Blacks in UKIP world? Don't argue that you believe in an absolute principle unless you mean it.
I do mean it.
If they did exclude the people you mention then I should think they would struggle to stay open. I personally am not a member of a golf club, and don't care who I play golf alongside when I do play, but still don't think it should be against the law to only let people of your choice be a member of your club.
Applies for clubs run by all sexes, races and sexualities, don't try and turn into a white straight male thing
My favourite explanation would be video games* - young men busy playing World of Warcraft and Need for Speed 8 instead of committing violent crimes and joyriding. Given the outrage from the Daily Mail et al about video games it would be some justice if they were playing a role in reducing crime.
The whole falling crime thing is really peculiar - it didn't rise as expected during the Bust which no one could really explain and now its falling like a stone.
I'm increasingly wondering if the weird explanation that its all about lead in petrol that's behind it. Or abortions. Or something else apparently unconnected with what the police actually do.
ONS @statisticsONS #Crime in England & Wales fell 9% in the year to March according to the crime survey, while recorded crime fell 7% bit.ly/18njLZb
Today did a 'compare & contrast' of 'falling Police numbers' with 'falling crime' and had someone from the Police Federation getting duffed up by a Police Commissioner over his whinging......
Mark Easton tweets: "Police are doing a brilliant job. We asked them to do more with less and they are doing that. I want to thank them." David Cameron"
Funny what happens when you focus on outcomes, (falling crime) not inputs (number of Policemen)......and another Labour fox is taken out and shot.....anyone seen Mrs Balls?
*Disclosure: I spent much of my teenage years engaging in the blood-soaked battles of Sengoku Japan.
There was a long period here at PB when he was maligned on an almost daily basis by the usual suspects. In the long run, it turned out that Rod was right and they were wrong. I can't remember seeing many of them apologising.
Four years IS a long time! That was the period during which I was abused and accused of being a Labour shill, simply for demonstrating that a Tory majority in 2010 was improbable. (For the record, I state again I have never voted Labour in my life, and most likely never will.)
Now, my antenna are telling me Labour are in trouble. It seems the public's opinion of Miliband has crystallized into a thumbs-down. I expect Labour's polling position to weaken further and the Tories to win the popular vote in 2015. If Miliband becomes PM, it will be the cock-eyed electoral system which puts him in Downing Street and not the voters...
So, using the Crime Survey figures, the fall in crime during the New Labour years (1997-2010) was greater than the increase in crime during the Thatcher/Major year (1980-1997).
You would be forgiven for thinking otherwise if you read a tabloid newspaper. A great scandal in terms of misleading the public.
If you're talking about 'swing back', the idea that Labour would recover in the polls and that the Tory 'window' was narrow, that's fine. Qualitative but fine.
The pseudoscientific correlation curve and the complete refusal to test it in other situations, much less so. What did it predict, in the end? How near to the final answer was it. What could have been done to improve the model? None of these questions appeared to be asked.
I did note a different correlation curve to play around with this time.
Same with the 'Kalman filter' used - its absolutely fine and used to filter data in many other situations. But my memory is that, basically, it illustrated "rubbish in, rubbish out".
Four years IS a long time! That was the period during which I was abused and accused of being a Labour shill, simply for demonstrating that a Tory majority in 2010 was improbable. (For the record, I state again I have never voted Labour in my life, and most likely never will.)
Shame your swing-back failed to identify Labour polling under 30% but! Despite best advice you chose to exclude outliers....
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 6m Lansley points out EdM has not uttered the words 'One Nation' once this calendar year in the Commons.
One nation labour dead?
No surprise, it was dead on arrival given labours toxic nature in large areas of the country,
What made it even stupider was the playground name calling that ran along side it - posh, toffs, rich friends, Eton!!! et al - that was childish Class War straight out of the 70s.
You can't claim to represent everyone and abuse them at the same time.
This is not in a context to find out and as I recall you have relevant background in the area. If you make something illegal that was perfectly okay previously does that spike those figures (and vice versa)? If so, does the graph have much meaning?
I'm writing this with an article I read this week at the back of my mind. Even if you don't change laws you still get crime evolving/extinctions: fxn.ws/1bC6qv6
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 6m Lansley points out EdM has not uttered the words 'One Nation' once this calendar year in the Commons.
One nation labour dead?
No surprise, it was dead on arrival given labours toxic nature in large areas of the country,
What made it [the use of One Nation Labour] even stupider was the playground name calling that ran along side it - posh, toffs, rich friends, Eton!!! et al - that was childish Class War straight out of the 70s.
You can't claim to represent everyone and abuse them at the same time.
One Nation Labour was a slogan of the moment that was picked mainly to irritate opponents (as it can't have been a genuine aspiration for the reasons pointed out above). One Nation Conservativism is a political tradition that has run within the party for getting on for a century and a half.
This is not in a context to find out and as I recall you have relevant background in the area. If you make something illegal that was perfectly okay previously does that spike those figures (and vice versa)? If so, does the graph have much meaning?
I'm writing this with an article I read this week at the back of my mind. Even if you don't change laws you still get crime evolving/extinctions: fxn.ws/1bC6qv6
The BCS is the only thing worth really looking at as it measures overall crimes whether reported or not. The *official* stats have been fiddled about with so much its almost impossible to make comparisons. If you take violent crime for example it includes all sorts of nonsense like 'reddening the skin' which isn't what most people think it means at all.
This changed when I was in the plod back in 2005 and really alarmed the public for no good reason. Frankly, I've no idea what Charles Clarke was thinking of as Home Sec at the time here as it made him look bad and confused everyone else.
If you're talking about 'swing back', the idea that Labour would recover in the polls and that the Tory 'window' was narrow, that's fine. Qualitative but fine.
The pseudoscientific correlation curve and the complete refusal to test it in other situations, much less so. What did it predict, in the end? How near to the final answer was it. What could have been done to improve the model? None of these questions appeared to be asked.
I did note a different correlation curve to play around with this time.
Same with the 'Kalman filter' used - its absolutely fine and used to filter data in many other situations. But my memory is that, basically, it illustrated "rubbish in, rubbish out".
I do note its absence this time around.
You have not been paying attention. For the first time, the by-election swingback model was somewhat off in 2010. I devoted a whole guest article subsequently to trying to explain why. The evidence points to the TV debates, a novel addition in a British election, and Brown's corpse impression in them, producing about an extra 1% late swing to the Tories.
The Kalman filter proved its worth. A final forecast of a 7.2% Tory lead, spot on. It's quite ball-breaking work to generate the numbers. Do you really need an estimate of the parties' standing to one decimal place this far out from the election? Well, go ahead... Hopefully, it will make a reappearance in 2015.
Four years IS a long time! That was the period during which I was abused and accused of being a Labour shill, simply for demonstrating that a Tory majority in 2010 was improbable. (For the record, I state again I have never voted Labour in my life, and most likely never will.)
Shame your swing-back failed to identify Labour polling under 30% but! Despite best advice you chose to exclude outliers....
More gibberish... FYI, swingback doesn't seek to forecast the shares, but the lead.
My Kalman prediction for Labour was 28.2%, which is under 30%. Still think I was wrong to exclude Angus Reid?
One assumes that this is a view you've only held since May 2010.
Nope. Got annoyed when Labour did it. Always been annoyed when PM's start asking the LoO questions.
It's a good insight though. The Tory strategy seems to be to attack Labour as if they were in government and the Tories were in opposition. Might work.
A summer bun-fight to keep us entertained. Sunny has outdone himself here and Tim Stanley has thrown the dinner roll back:^ )
"The Labour-supporting blogger Sunny Hundal has done his bit for world peace by declaring that Right-wingers are all “evil”. Obviously, it’s political hyperbole at its most silly. But this kind of rhetoric is increasingly common among Left-wingers who think that conservatives who want to reform welfare, stop the NHS from killing people or make sure kids can leave school with the ability to tie their own shoe-laces are – to use Sunny’s words – “heartless bastards.”
Miss Plato, cheers for that. I particularly enjoyed this section:
"Global warming This is the biggest threat facing the planet. It will cause our children far more misery and death than national debt and the case is even more clear-cut. There isn’t a credible institution on the subject on the planet that says otherwise. Not one.
And yet, MPs who are deniers are given influential positions while the education secretary wants to wipe the subject from the school curriculum. The Telegraph, Daily Mail and Spectator (and parts of the BBC) push global warming denial week-in-week-out.
They do this not because there’s ambiguity over the evidence or confirmation bias, but because they hate lefties. That’s what it comes down to. For that reason they’re willing to delay action over an issue that is already causing deaths and will lead to much more problems for the UK in the future."
Yeah, global warming. Where scientists predicted we'd almost never have snow. And that summers be hot. Or wet. And then hot again. If scientists can't predict a weather/climate trend for 5-10 years in the future how we have confidence they can do it for centuries?
Also, how is the case for global warming more clear cut than the national debt? I can find figures on what the debt is now, and the deficit too. Global warming is at least contentious (even true believers vary in terms of what they think the short- to medium-term impact will be).
Almost the only thing I've found remotely convincing about the claim is that some people whose opinion I respect have backed it.
Oh, and 'denial' implies it's The Truth. It isn't. Even if it turns out to be 100% correct it's always legitimate to be scientifically sceptical rather than credulous and dogmatic. It's science, not faith (or meant to be, at least).
@Alanbrooke, I wrote a piece yesterday on German politics, and in particular the AfD. Two things: firstly, I'd say the SPD is more Euro-enthusiastic than the CDU; secondly, the risk for the AfD is that - because of the 5% threshold - shy AfD supporters are more likely to vote FDP (who are notably more Eurosceptic than the Greens, the SPD or the CDU) than waste their vote.
"For the first time, the by-election swingback model was somewhat off in 2010. I devoted a whole guest article subsequently to trying to explain why. The evidence points to the TV debates, a novel addition in a British election, and Brown's corpse impression in them, producing about an extra 1% swing to the Tories."
Miss Plato, there was a science programme with Dara O'Briain on BBC2 fairly recently. I stopped watching it when Brigstocke was on [half the contributors were comedians] and he managed to make 2 political 'jokes' in the first few minutes of a section about... nothingness (literally, the idea of whether nothingness exists in nature).
Horizon sometimes annoys me with arty things (interviews conducted half-in-shadows, silly effects etc) but at least it sticks to the point.
Edited extra bit: and your mention of The Young Ones reminded me of Valentine's Day
I used to love Horizon and improbably even told the admissions bod at my secondary school that it was my favourite TV prog. This was actually true and I didn't recall saying it until my mother was told at a parent's evening!
I watched the one about cats and found it very docudrama-ish - perhaps Horizon was always like this - but it seemed really dumbed down to me.
I also loved The World About Us - and of course Survival that was like World of Sport wrestling for animals...
Miss Plato, there was a science programme with Dara O'Briain on BBC2 fairly recently. I stopped watching it when Brigstocke was on [half the contributors were comedians] and he managed to make 2 political 'jokes' in the first few minutes of a section about... nothingness (literally, the idea of whether nothingness exists in nature).
Horizon sometimes annoys me with arty things (interviews conducted half-in-shadows, silly effects etc) but at least it sticks to the point.
Edited extra bit: and your mention of The Young Ones reminded me of Valentine's Day
My favourite explanation would be video games* - young men busy playing World of Warcraft and Need for Speed 8 instead of committing violent crimes and joyriding. Given the outrage from the Daily Mail et al about video games it would be some justice if they were playing a role in reducing crime. *Disclosure: I spent much of my teenage years engaging in the blood-soaked battles of Sengoku Japan.
Attractive explanation! Personally I think it's partly just demography - the proportion of young people in the population is falling, and most crime is a young man's thing. Also, routine crime - breaking into cars and houses - has got significantly harder due to better security.
Given that it's a 20-year trend, I wonder when/if most people will start to believe it?
On Germany, I don't think the AfD has any chance at all unless there is a major new Euro-crisis in the next couple of months: most Germans are not strongly anti-Euro. But Merkel must be pleased with the overall trend. She does need an overall majority even though the Left isn't part of a potential SPD-Green government, since a government that can't win any votes isn't viable. But she has a clear chance of getting one with the FDP now, and if she doesn't it'll be pretty easy to get one with the SPD.
@Alanbrooke, I wrote a piece yesterday on German politics, and in particular the AfD. Two things: firstly, I'd say the SPD is more Euro-enthusiastic than the CDU; secondly, the risk for the AfD is that - because of the 5% threshold - shy AfD supporters are more likely to vote FDP (who are notably more Eurosceptic than the Greens, the SPD or the CDU) than waste their vote.
RCS missed your post. Interested in your comment on CDU, I posted this yesterday from the Allensbach Institute, where Germans were rating the CDU more pro EU than the SPD. (see Bilder chart 3 ). It also shows a split with D Mark nostalgia now on the decline, but still a lot of scepticism re EU. FAZ have an odd caption " confidence in EU is growing" which is true, but the actuals say it's 33% who trust it and 60% who don't, with the issue being negative since 2005. I'd tend to share your scepticism on the AfD making the threshold, firstly for the reason you say and secondly because Merkel is going to keep any explosive issues off stage until the election is over.
"The Cabinet Office said there was no indication in them that the prime minister or any officials know about the allegations of sexual abuse and paedophilia against Savile - which emerged in full after his death in 2011.
Savile raised £30m for good causes and was awarded an OBE in 1971"
I don't understand why one nation labour has been abandoned. It contained many potential ideas whilst completely debunking the idea that a conservative party in thrall to the global elite could ever be pro-British. I can only assume that Miliband lost his nerve.
How many times has Cameron uttered the words "The Big Society" since GE2010?
Here he is talking about it the other week. Too many other mentions since 2010 to count.
"The Nightstop team attended a reception on Monday at 10 Downing Street where they were presented with their award by Prime Minister David Cameron.
Mr Cameron said: “This Big Society Award recognises the achievements of the whole Nightstop team, including the 33 inspirational volunteers who regularly open up their own homes to provide a safe place to sleep when it’s needed most"
I don't understand why one nation labour has been abandoned. It contained many potential ideas whilst completely debunking the idea that a conservative party in thrall to the global elite could ever be pro-British. I can only assume that Miliband lost his nerve.
Are you using a random phrase generator to post here? What on Earth does mean?
How many times has Cameron uttered the words "The Big Society" since GE2010?
Here he is talking about it the other week. Too many other mentions since 2010 to count.
"The Nightstop team attended a reception on Monday at 10 Downing Street where they were presented with their award by Prime Minister David Cameron.
Mr Cameron said: “This Big Society Award recognises the achievements of the whole Nightstop team, including the 33 inspirational volunteers who regularly open up their own homes to provide a safe place to sleep when it’s needed most"
I don't understand why one nation labour has been abandoned. It contained many potential ideas whilst completely debunking the idea that a conservative party in thrall to the global elite could ever be pro-British. I can only assume that Miliband lost his nerve.
Are you using a random phrase generator to post here? What on Earth does mean?
That's a question for Ed Balls, a regular attendee at Bilderberg conferences.
"The Cabinet Office said there was no indication in them that the prime minister or any officials know about the allegations of sexual abuse and paedophilia against Savile - which emerged in full after his death in 2011.
Well, yes, that's the point that those were keen to bash others over this tended to overlook.
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 6m Lansley points out EdM has not uttered the words 'One Nation' once this calendar year in the Commons.
One nation labour dead?
No surprise, it was dead on arrival given labours toxic nature in large areas of the country,
Lansley has too much time on his hands. Tories obsessed with the Labour leader now.
Did you watch PMQ's yesterday? If so, you will have seen Labour MP after Labour MP stand up and think that the issue that affected their constituents most was Crosby. Now that was an obsession.
Crosby has Labour frightened. Perhaps rightly, perhaps not. Which is why they are (going after / smearing - delete as applicable) him. Now they have started, it is a battle they will have to win, and Cameron has to stop them.
"Terrifying typos, marvellous malapropisms and baffling blunders feature in this year’s crop of “exam howlers”.
Every year, lecturers marking examination scripts are asked by Times Higher Education to share their favourite student slip-ups.
A mixed metaphor from one student, who described Alain Resnais’ controversial Holocaust documentary Night and Fog as “a hotly contested potato”, caught the eye of Steve Hawley, head of media at Manchester Metropolitan University’s Manchester School of Art.
Another film studies student stated that several of Alfred Hitchcock’s recurring themes arose because he was a “torched Catholic”.
“Of course, in another era, he might well have been,” noted Martin McLoone, director of the Centre for Media Research at the University of Ulster, who submitted the entry.
Jackie Eales, professor of early modern history at Canterbury Christ Church University, was amused to read that “Britain under the Cromwellian Protectorate was a piranha state” - a description that perhaps falls into the “truer than you may imagine” category.
Meanwhile, a student of Alexander Maxwell, senior lecturer in history at the Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand, confused the story of Pavlik Morozov, the Soviet youth murdered by his family after informing on his parents, with a more heartwarming tale. Morozov was “a Russian explorer who discovered the true meaning of Christmas”, the student claimed...
Nicholas Martin, reader in European intellectual history at the University of Birmingham, was surprised to read that “General Franco was supported by right-wing panties”."
"For the first time, the by-election swingback model was somewhat off in 2010. I devoted a whole guest article subsequently to trying to explain why. The evidence points to the TV debates, a novel addition in a British election, and Brown's corpse impression in them, producing about an extra 1% swing to the Tories."
And whether or not the Kalman filter "predicts", well I don't have time for semantic games... Yawn... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalman_filter (54 references to "predict", "prediction", etc)
Plato - it's a simple concept that means exactly what I say.
Shame that it's equally applicable to Labour as well. What have Labour's last three living leaders done since leaving office? Is Blair not in thrall to the global elite? How is Brown spending his time now that he rarely represents his constituents? And Kinnock found a comfortable sinecure in Europe not just for himself, but also his wife. His son worked for the World Economic Forum.
I have a politician who would be perfect for you: Dennis Skinner. He's not in thrall to the global elite. Indeed, he doesn't even have a passport.
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 6m Lansley points out EdM has not uttered the words 'One Nation' once this calendar year in the Commons.
One nation labour dead?
No surprise, it was dead on arrival given labours toxic nature in large areas of the country,
Lansley has too much time on his hands. Tories obsessed with the Labour leader now.
Did you watch PMQ's yesterday? If so, you will have seen Labour MP after Labour MP stand up and think that the issue that affected their constituents most was Crosby. Now that was an obsession.
Crosby has Labour frightened. Perhaps rightly, perhaps not. Which is why they are (going after / smearing - delete as applicable) him. Now they have started, it is a battle they will have to win, and Cameron has to stop them.
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 6m Lansley points out EdM has not uttered the words 'One Nation' once this calendar year in the Commons.
One nation labour dead?
No surprise, it was dead on arrival given labours toxic nature in large areas of the country,
Lansley has too much time on his hands. Tories obsessed with the Labour leader now.
Did you watch PMQ's yesterday? If so, you will have seen Labour MP after Labour MP stand up and think that the issue that affected their constituents most was Crosby. Now that was an obsession.
Crosby has Labour frightened. Perhaps rightly, perhaps not. Which is why they are (going after / smearing - delete as applicable) him. Now they have started, it is a battle they will have to win, and Cameron has to stop them.
yesterday's PMQ was just bizarre.
6 questions about Crosby and not one about anything substantial voters may actually tune into to.
The Blank Sheet of Paper in all its glory. Plain Packaged Ed.
Four years IS a long time! That was the period during which I was abused and accused of being a Labour shill, simply for demonstrating that a Tory majority in 2010 was improbable.
I don't think I was around here then and admittedly this is with the benefit of hindsight, but I'm struggling with why this was ever a provocative stance!
The distribution of votes versus seats makes it obvious that the Tories would need an actual vote share well into the 40s to obtain a majority, and beyond what they've ever achieved.
There were polls showing Cameron at 49% IIRC but then there were also pre-'97 polls showing Blair at 61%.
Today, there are polls showing Miliband at 40-odd.
Plato - it's a simple concept that means exactly what I say.
Could you explain it in terms of practical examples then?
For better or worse, the only thing that mass political parties are really in thrall to is the electorate and the things which interest, motivate, raises fear or approval or disapproval in them (or at least, that part which might vote for them).
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 6m Lansley points out EdM has not uttered the words 'One Nation' once this calendar year in the Commons.
One nation labour dead?
No surprise, it was dead on arrival given labours toxic nature in large areas of the country,
Lansley has too much time on his hands. Tories obsessed with the Labour leader now.
Did you watch PMQ's yesterday? If so, you will have seen Labour MP after Labour MP stand up and think that the issue that affected their constituents most was Crosby. Now that was an obsession.
Crosby has Labour frightened. Perhaps rightly, perhaps not. Which is why they are (going after / smearing - delete as applicable) him. Now they have started, it is a battle they will have to win, and Cameron has to stop them.
yesterday's PMQ was just bizarre.
6 questions about Crosby and not one about anything substantial voters may actually tune into to.
The Blank Sheet of Paper in all its glory. Plain Packaged Ed.
The only people who asked any sensible questions were the LDs Andrew George and Simon Hughes. Labour were just plain ridiculous while the Tories were throwing praise boomerangs.
An interesting point re public money. Given that the BBC's charter is about editorial independence - I'm failing to see why its employees' pay-offs are exempt from scrutiny. One is about an arms-length media relationship - the latter is about misuse of the public's money. It was Labour's Chair Ms Hodge who confirmed that PAC felt disclosure was necessary.
This week the [BBC] turned down a request by MPs [PAC] that it should disclose the names of 150 individuals who received large severance payouts. In total these amounted to £25 million. Or, to bring the maths into your own front room, the equivalent of the total licence fee paid by almost 172,000 households. Lord Patten of Barnes, the chairman of the BBC Trust, has told MPs he was “shocked and dismayed” by the size of payments.
These sums are huge. If the BBC were a government department this would prompt resignations. If it were a company, a shareholder rebellion. Yet the corporation, for all its strengths, has grown accustomed to a stance of opacity. The refusal has been made on the grounds of the corporation’s independence from Parliament. This is absurd. It is not only Parliament that deserves answers, but everyone else...
Rob Wilson, a Conservative MP, has now written to Sir Bernard Hogan-Howe, the Commissioner of the Metropolitan Police, to ask him to consider investigating figures at the BBC for fraud or misconduct in public office. If the BBC feels such charges are unwarranted, it has an easy route for making this case. But it should not have come to this. Those who pay are entitled to know what they are paying for. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/leaders/article3818991.ece
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 6m Lansley points out EdM has not uttered the words 'One Nation' once this calendar year in the Commons.
One nation labour dead?
No surprise, it was dead on arrival given labours toxic nature in large areas of the country,
Lansley has too much time on his hands. Tories obsessed with the Labour leader now.
Did you watch PMQ's yesterday? If so, you will have seen Labour MP after Labour MP stand up and think that the issue that affected their constituents most was Crosby. Now that was an obsession.
Crosby has Labour frightened. Perhaps rightly, perhaps not. Which is why they are (going after / smearing - delete as applicable) him. Now they have started, it is a battle they will have to win, and Cameron has to stop them.
yesterday's PMQ was just bizarre.
6 questions about Crosby and not one about anything substantial voters may actually tune into to.
The Blank Sheet of Paper in all its glory. Plain Packaged Ed.
Ed's Sainsbury's "Basics" label: "A bit crap but just as progressive as ever"
The Crosby stuff is largely about Camerons character, what sort of man he is, who he appoints, what his priorities are.
Priority in appointing an election strategist: Winning the election Who he appoints: Someone good at helping him win the next election
Labour really are being stupid here, even in their own terms. Of course they are gagging for the Big Smear later in the year, but this just muddies the waters, making it look as though they throw smears around entirely at random.
"The Cabinet Office said there was no indication in them that the prime minister or any officials know about the allegations of sexual abuse and paedophilia against Savile - which emerged in full after his death in 2011.
Well, yes, that's the point that those were keen to bash others over this tended to overlook.
Thatcher comes out of it as surprisingly unstuffy - the objection was that JS was open about his promiscuity (if not the age of his partners) which in the context of the AIDS campaign was seen as problematic - Thatcher was focussed on his charitable work, not his (quite public) private life.....
The point is, ladies and gentlemen, that Dave, for lack of a better word, is good. Dave is right, Dave works. Dave clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit. Dave, in all of his forms; Dave for life, for money, for love, knowledge has marked the upward surge of mankind. And Dave, you mark my words, will not only save the Tory Party, but that other malfunctioning corporation called the UK. Thank you very much.
I too think that One Nation Labour was a good idea. But Ed Miliband didn't have the courage to follow through all the necessary implications of such an idea, which is why it has been sidelined.
The Crosby stuff is largely about Camerons character, what sort of man he is, who he appoints, what his priorities are.
Priority in appointing an election strategist: Winning the election Who he appoints: Someone good at helping him win the next election
Labour really are being stupid here, even in their own terms. Of course they are gagging for the Big Smear later in the year, but this just muddies the waters, making it look as though they throw smears around entirely at random.
No point complaining about it. if that's what Labour want to do they'll go for it, however I can't help but think they'll get a more pugnacious response than the last time. Never wrestle with a pig, you'll both come out covered in filth but he'll have enjoyed it.
The Crosby stuff is largely about Camerons character, what sort of man he is, who he appoints, what his priorities are.
Priority - winning the election. Crosby can deliver that. It has nothing to do with character, if anything it shows that he has finally found a ruthless streak he has been lacking by chucking his best mate out of strategy which, as you have pointed out on ample occasion, he is useless at. He was ruthless with Ed and Labour at PMQ's yesterday as well, which again is a good sign that Dave is willing to do what is necessary to stay in Number 10.
Labour are absolutely desperate to smear Crosby and try and get him out because, Crosby has the potential to win the election for the Cons. 2015 is not 2005, people are much more sceptical towards mass immigration and Labour are incredibly weak on economic issues, Crosby's campaign is much more likely to work this time than last.
I don't think I was around here then and admittedly this is with the benefit of hindsight, but I'm struggling with why this was ever a provocative stance!
Well, the rot set in after I revealed that (in them days, at least) PB was inhabited by about twice as many Tories as exist in nature, and they all seemed to believe that not only was Cameron heading for a majority, but for one of landslide proportions. OGH and Junior then unveiled, to great fanfare, their version of HAL (or was it ORAC?) which, we were assured, proved it all to be quite true...
But a lone voice, an irritant at the party, kept plugging the view that this was all bumptiously optimistic nonsense. A drip feed of guest articles followed, covering a lot of ground: what the polls really mean, the Kalman filter, the identification of by-election swingback as a better predictor, historical patterns of support change in UK elections, the operation of the electoral system, and how it has changed in favour of a hung parliament, etc, etc...
Little by little, I gathered converts, and the die-hards were reduced to sniping from the sidelines, alternately calling me a Labour shill and a crypto-fascist, often in the same thread.
Yes, it's a real pity you missed "PB - the comedy years"...
I too think that One Nation Labour was a good idea. But Ed Miliband didn't have the courage to follow through all the necessary implications of such an idea, which is why it has been sidelined.
If Miliband does not have the courage to follow through the implications of his own ideas, then why on earth does he think he is PM material?
Besides, I think "One Notion" Labour was more accurate.
I too think that One Nation Labour was a good idea. But Ed Miliband didn't have the courage to follow through all the necessary implications of such an idea, which is why it has been sidelined.
Have we had Producers vs Predators recently? That one provided a lot of fun.
Miss Plato, the anti-Crosby line in PMQs helped to get Toenails to parrot it as the second biggest story in the world on the BBC news at ten o'clock. In those terms, it worked.
I too think that One Nation Labour was a good idea. But Ed Miliband didn't have the courage to follow through all the necessary implications of such an idea, which is why it has been sidelined.
Have we had Producers vs Predators recently? That one provided a lot of fun.
Ed has stripped off the barnacles and combined that policy with his new approach on immigration, it's now Aliens vs Predators.
This changed when I was in the plod back in 2005 and really alarmed the public for no good reason. Frankly, I've no idea what Charles Clarke was thinking of as Home Sec at the time here as it made him look bad and confused everyone else.
I thought the BCS had also been tampered with because it proved, inconveniently, that most (30x more was it?) racial attacks were carried out by minorities against whites and other minorities?
Mike is right, the tories have a huge mountain to climb. Thing is, they don;t have to climb it now. They just need to stick around. They just need to avoid being tailed off.
I too think that One Nation Labour was a good idea. But Ed Miliband didn't have the courage to follow through all the necessary implications of such an idea, which is why it has been sidelined.
Have we had Producers vs Predators recently? That one provided a lot of fun.
Ed has stripped off the barnacles and combined that policy with his new approach on immigration, it's now Aliens vs Predators.
Comments
I mean really - John Inverdale being a bit 1960s? I can't believe she doesn't have anything better to do. Who advised her to do this? Shoot them.
To the first, I firmly believe that clubs should be able to set their own membership rules, including gender- and, for that matter, racial- or religious-restrictions. If other people don't like it, then they are free to campaign against those clubs and policies, and to publicise and condemn individual's membership of them. If there is a social stigma attached to membership, then policies will change (or resignations and non-renewals will follow).
The second question is a different matter. Hosting a major tournament is an honour and an explicit endorsement of that club's attitudes and policies. The culture of the club will inevitably reflect onto the sport which has chosen it to showcase itself. There shouldn't be a place for endorsed discrimination by sporting authorities, where the element of choice doesn't exist.
Mosques and chapels don't allow women or gays to run the services - where is your moral indignation there ?
I'm increasingly wondering if the weird explanation that its all about lead in petrol that's behind it. Or abortions. Or something else apparently unconnected with what the police actually do.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/357475994006851587/photo/1
Does anyone have the letter that the Labour spinmeister wrote when Ed, for one data point, was above Cameron?
Turns out, after all, that the Don't Knows broke against Ed. Who would have seen that coming?
http://joesaward.wordpress.com/2013/07/18/the-dangers-of-bugging/
If they did exclude the people you mention then I should think they would struggle to stay open. I personally am not a member of a golf club, and don't care who I play golf alongside when I do play, but still don't think it should be against the law to only let people of your choice be a member of your club.
Applies for clubs run by all sexes, races and sexualities, don't try and turn into a white straight male thing
Bresnan in for Finn
Khawaja and Harris in for Cowan and Starc.
Three Yorkshiremen in the side.
How can we lose ?
Pleased to see Bresnan in.
I backed Australia last night.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BPcklxLCIAEyvwa.jpg:large
Now, my antenna are telling me Labour are in trouble. It seems the public's opinion of Miliband has crystallized into a thumbs-down. I expect Labour's polling position to weaken further and the Tories to win the popular vote in 2015. If Miliband becomes PM, it will be the cock-eyed electoral system which puts him in Downing Street and not the voters...
You would be forgiven for thinking otherwise if you read a tabloid newspaper. A great scandal in terms of misleading the public.
The pseudoscientific correlation curve and the complete refusal to test it in other situations, much less so. What did it predict, in the end? How near to the final answer was it. What could have been done to improve the model? None of these questions appeared to be asked.
I did note a different correlation curve to play around with this time.
Same with the 'Kalman filter' used - its absolutely fine and used to filter data in many other situations. But my memory is that, basically, it illustrated "rubbish in, rubbish out".
I do note its absence this time around.
Mr. M, don't forget Goldfinger.
Our record against Australian at Lords is shocking.
I think we've won 2 out of 26 tests at Lords since 1900 against Australia.
That's an epic beating up there with The Battle of Zama
Lansley points out EdM has not uttered the words 'One Nation' once this calendar year in the Commons.
One nation labour dead?
No surprise, it was dead on arrival given labours toxic nature in large areas of the country,
You can't claim to represent everyone and abuse them at the same time.
I'm writing this with an article I read this week at the back of my mind. Even if you don't change laws you still get crime evolving/extinctions: fxn.ws/1bC6qv6
http://pcc.org.uk/news/index.html?article=ODUwMg==
*cough* it is Mrs Sabre. Just thought I'd remind you privately whilst nobody is paying attention.
As for Goldfinger, the good guys triumphed. I have no doubt that will be repeated here.
One Nation Conservativism is a political tradition that has run within the party for getting on for a century and a half.
That is a profound difference.
This changed when I was in the plod back in 2005 and really alarmed the public for no good reason. Frankly, I've no idea what Charles Clarke was thinking of as Home Sec at the time here as it made him look bad and confused everyone else.
Understandable.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/declining-north-sea-oil-gas-2061015
http://storify.com/statisticsons/what-the-census-tells-us?utm_campaign=&awesm=sfy.co_sAjf&utm_content=storify-pingback&utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=sfy.co-twitter
I do apologise, Mrs Sabre [I left early last night and missed the correction].
For the first time, the by-election swingback model was somewhat off in 2010. I devoted a whole guest article subsequently to trying to explain why. The evidence points to the TV debates, a novel addition in a British election, and Brown's corpse impression in them, producing about an extra 1% late swing to the Tories.
The Kalman filter proved its worth. A final forecast of a 7.2% Tory lead, spot on. It's quite ball-breaking work to generate the numbers. Do you really need an estimate of the parties' standing to one decimal place this far out from the election? Well, go ahead... Hopefully, it will make a reappearance in 2015.
lucy manning @lucymanning 20m
PM on Lynton Crosby says Tony Blair lobbies him & he doesn't know who all his clients are. Says wouldn't be enough paper to write them down.
FYI, swingback doesn't seek to forecast the shares, but the lead.
My Kalman prediction for Labour was 28.2%, which is under 30%. Still think I was wrong to exclude Angus Reid?
It's a good insight though. The Tory strategy seems to be to attack Labour as if they were in government and the Tories were in opposition. Might work.
"The Labour-supporting blogger Sunny Hundal has done his bit for world peace by declaring that Right-wingers are all “evil”. Obviously, it’s political hyperbole at its most silly. But this kind of rhetoric is increasingly common among Left-wingers who think that conservatives who want to reform welfare, stop the NHS from killing people or make sure kids can leave school with the ability to tie their own shoe-laces are – to use Sunny’s words – “heartless bastards.”
So if we’re going to play this game of tit-for-tat, I’d like to offer evidence that it’s the Left that’s pure evil rather than the right. Aside from hating freedom and the baby Jesus, they also commit these five mortal sins without any thought for the rest of us:.." http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timstanley/100227068/five-reasons-why-left-wingers-are-pure-evil/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/10187541/David-Cameron-hails-magnificent-fall-in-crime-despite-police-cuts.html
I'll move it to 2.76 for you lot though
"Global warming
This is the biggest threat facing the planet. It will cause our children far more misery and death than national debt and the case is even more clear-cut. There isn’t a credible institution on the subject on the planet that says otherwise. Not one.
And yet, MPs who are deniers are given influential positions while the education secretary wants to wipe the subject from the school curriculum. The Telegraph, Daily Mail and Spectator (and parts of the BBC) push global warming denial week-in-week-out.
They do this not because there’s ambiguity over the evidence or confirmation bias, but because they hate lefties. That’s what it comes down to. For that reason they’re willing to delay action over an issue that is already causing deaths and will lead to much more problems for the UK in the future."
Yeah, global warming. Where scientists predicted we'd almost never have snow. And that summers be hot. Or wet. And then hot again. If scientists can't predict a weather/climate trend for 5-10 years in the future how we have confidence they can do it for centuries?
Also, how is the case for global warming more clear cut than the national debt? I can find figures on what the debt is now, and the deficit too. Global warming is at least contentious (even true believers vary in terms of what they think the short- to medium-term impact will be).
Almost the only thing I've found remotely convincing about the claim is that some people whose opinion I respect have backed it.
Oh, and 'denial' implies it's The Truth. It isn't. Even if it turns out to be 100% correct it's always legitimate to be scientifically sceptical rather than credulous and dogmatic. It's science, not faith (or meant to be, at least).
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23355531
This was on the Daily Mail website last night before anyone starts saying the Beeb are digging out Thatcher
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2366576/Revealed-Lady-Thatchers-FIVE-attempts-secure-knighthood-Jimmy-Savile.html
Fair enough, I missed that.
Any chance of a link.
The actual result of the Kalman filter is :
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/hp/kalman.png
As with everyone else, it over-predicted the Lib Dems as, well, it was using the same data. Quelle Surprise.
Horizon sometimes annoys me with arty things (interviews conducted half-in-shadows, silly effects etc) but at least it sticks to the point.
Edited extra bit: and your mention of The Young Ones reminded me of Valentine's Day
I watched the one about cats and found it very docudrama-ish - perhaps Horizon was always like this - but it seemed really dumbed down to me.
I also loved The World About Us - and of course Survival that was like World of Sport wrestling for animals...
Given that it's a 20-year trend, I wonder when/if most people will start to believe it?
On Germany, I don't think the AfD has any chance at all unless there is a major new Euro-crisis in the next couple of months: most Germans are not strongly anti-Euro. But Merkel must be pleased with the overall trend. She does need an overall majority even though the Left isn't part of a potential SPD-Green government, since a government that can't win any votes isn't viable. But she has a clear chance of getting one with the FDP now, and if she doesn't it'll be pretty easy to get one with the SPD.
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/europaeische-union/neue-allensbach-analyse-das-vertrauen-in-die-eu-waechst-12284506.html
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/telegram/100227090/the-tories-are-grinning-at-their-good-fortune-but-do-they-really-deserve-to-win-the-next-general-election/
Savile raised £30m for good causes and was awarded an OBE in 1971"
- Employment rate highest in the South East (75.1%) and lowest in the North East (66.1%).
- Unemployment rate highest in the North East (10.4%) and lowest in the South West (5.8%).
- Inactivity rate highest in the North East (26.0%) and lowest in the South East (19.7%).
- Claimant Count rate highest in the North East (7.1%) and lowest in the South East (2.7%).
Full data http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/re-reference-tables.html?edition=tcm:77-273232
"The Nightstop team attended a reception on Monday at 10 Downing Street where they were presented with their award by Prime Minister David Cameron.
Mr Cameron said: “This Big Society Award recognises the achievements of the whole Nightstop team, including the 33 inspirational volunteers who regularly open up their own homes to provide a safe place to sleep when it’s needed most"
http://www.newsguardian.co.uk/news/local/nightstop-north-east-charity-wins-big-society-award-1-5807525
Crosby has Labour frightened. Perhaps rightly, perhaps not. Which is why they are (going after / smearing - delete as applicable) him. Now they have started, it is a battle they will have to win, and Cameron has to stop them.
"Terrifying typos, marvellous malapropisms and baffling blunders feature in this year’s crop of “exam howlers”.
Every year, lecturers marking examination scripts are asked by Times Higher Education to share their favourite student slip-ups.
A mixed metaphor from one student, who described Alain Resnais’ controversial Holocaust documentary Night and Fog as “a hotly contested potato”, caught the eye of Steve Hawley, head of media at Manchester Metropolitan University’s Manchester School of Art.
Another film studies student stated that several of Alfred Hitchcock’s recurring themes arose because he was a “torched Catholic”.
“Of course, in another era, he might well have been,” noted Martin McLoone, director of the Centre for Media Research at the University of Ulster, who submitted the entry.
Jackie Eales, professor of early modern history at Canterbury Christ Church University, was amused to read that “Britain under the Cromwellian Protectorate was a piranha state” - a description that perhaps falls into the “truer than you may imagine” category.
Meanwhile, a student of Alexander Maxwell, senior lecturer in history at the Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand, confused the story of Pavlik Morozov, the Soviet youth murdered by his family after informing on his parents, with a more heartwarming tale. Morozov was “a Russian explorer who discovered the true meaning of Christmas”, the student claimed...
Nicholas Martin, reader in European intellectual history at the University of Birmingham, was surprised to read that “General Franco was supported by right-wing panties”."
And whether or not the Kalman filter "predicts", well I don't have time for semantic games... Yawn...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalman_filter (54 references to "predict", "prediction", etc)
I have a politician who would be perfect for you: Dennis Skinner. He's not in thrall to the global elite. Indeed, he doesn't even have a passport.
The Blank Sheet of Paper in all its glory. Plain Packaged Ed.
The distribution of votes versus seats makes it obvious that the Tories would need an actual vote share well into the 40s to obtain a majority, and beyond what they've ever achieved.
There were polls showing Cameron at 49% IIRC but then there were also pre-'97 polls showing Blair at 61%.
Today, there are polls showing Miliband at 40-odd.
My guess would be another Con-LD coalition.
For better or worse, the only thing that mass political parties are really in thrall to is the electorate and the things which interest, motivate, raises fear or approval or disapproval in them (or at least, that part which might vote for them).
This week the [BBC] turned down a request by MPs [PAC] that it should disclose the names of 150 individuals who received large severance payouts. In total these amounted to £25 million. Or, to bring the maths into your own front room, the equivalent of the total licence fee paid by almost 172,000 households. Lord Patten of Barnes, the chairman of the BBC Trust, has told MPs he was “shocked and dismayed” by the size of payments.
These sums are huge. If the BBC were a government department this would prompt resignations. If it were a company, a shareholder rebellion. Yet the corporation, for all its strengths, has grown accustomed to a stance of opacity. The refusal has been made on the grounds of the corporation’s independence from Parliament. This is absurd. It is not only Parliament that deserves answers, but everyone else...
Rob Wilson, a Conservative MP, has now written to Sir Bernard Hogan-Howe, the Commissioner of the Metropolitan Police, to ask him to consider investigating figures at the BBC for fraud or misconduct in public office. If the BBC feels such charges are unwarranted, it has an easy route for making this case. But it should not have come to this. Those who pay are entitled to know what they are paying for. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/leaders/article3818991.ece
Smart phones being stolen likely to be behind 9% rise in theft from a person bit.ly/18njLZb
Who he appoints: Someone good at helping him win the next election
Labour really are being stupid here, even in their own terms. Of course they are gagging for the Big Smear later in the year, but this just muddies the waters, making it look as though they throw smears around entirely at random.
Labour are absolutely desperate to smear Crosby and try and get him out because, Crosby has the potential to win the election for the Cons. 2015 is not 2005, people are much more sceptical towards mass immigration and Labour are incredibly weak on economic issues, Crosby's campaign is much more likely to work this time than last.
But a lone voice, an irritant at the party, kept plugging the view that this was all bumptiously optimistic nonsense. A drip feed of guest articles followed, covering a lot of ground: what the polls really mean, the Kalman filter, the identification of by-election swingback as a better predictor, historical patterns of support change in UK elections, the operation of the electoral system, and how it has changed in favour of a hung parliament, etc, etc...
Little by little, I gathered converts, and the die-hards were reduced to sniping from the sidelines, alternately calling me a Labour shill and a crypto-fascist, often in the same thread.
Yes, it's a real pity you missed "PB - the comedy years"...
Besides, I think "One Notion" Labour was more accurate.
And I think they are doing that.