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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big picture is that Labour still has a majority winning lead and the Tories have yet to find the magic bullet
It’s parliamentary recess time. The 2012-2013 political season is over only to return in early September and then into the conference season which for whatever reason kicks off a week earlier than usual.
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I disagree, the big picture is that the narrative is now changing, and with it the perceptions that Labour are nailed on to win the next GE under Ed Miliband whatever happens. And if all the sound and fury directed at Lynton Crosby this week is any guide, the Conservatives have found their very effective magic bullet. And the perception that Labour can't win the next GE will be key factor with those 2010 Libdem switchers who don't want to back another loser.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 17m
No overall majority now the Betfair favourite outcome for GE2015 See pic.twitter.com/qECivvD4iU
This could well be driven by dissatisfaction amongst some Labour supporters over the party's new tougher line on welfare and spending. I don't imagine for a moment it will translate into significant lost votes at the general election - Miliband is banking on the same equation as Brown and Blair before him, that natural Labour voters have nowhere else to go.
The mere geography of key marginals has handed the next election to Labour on a plate.
Run your fingernail across the results of other pollsters and the gilt flakes off revealing only naked brass beneath.
Has Burnham resigned yet?
http://bit.ly/13cGa6W
Pamela Stephenson Connolly to the rescue.
Complete tosh. Sounds like the sort of crap tim would write....
He's probably right to optimize for floating voters at this point at the risk of narking off the base, but his downside case for 2015 is that people who voted for Gordon Brown stay at home.
The three YouGov polls since Sunday are
31/40/11/11
32/38/10/12
31/37/12/13
The YouGov daily polls swing more than the pendulum of my dining room clock but the clear thing is that Milibland's Labour has never achieved anything like the mid-term opposition leads of his predecessors. Even Michael Foot was a more credible potential PM.
I have never admitted it before but I have a great deal of respect for the polling views of Rod Crosby and he has consistently been suggesting that we are in for another Conservative win in 2015, albeit a minority win. After a grim 3 years where the chancellor has stuck to his word and imposed what has clearly been harsh living conditions for most ordinary voters, the fact the Tories are still within fighting distance of Labour, bodes well.
We started the year with Labour talking up a triple dip recession and flatlining economy. 6 months later we now know there was never a second let alone triple dip recession. The only recent recession was Gordon "No return to boom and bust" Brown's 2008 recession which almost destroyed our economy. The flatlining growth has now been upgraded for this year twice and official projections are now 0.9-1%. Frankly if as appears likely next week we learn 2nd Q growth was 0.4-0.6% we are then on track for 2013 growth of between 1.2-1.5%. 6 months ago people like Tim would have shouted about George Osborne's lack of fitness to be Chancellor if he had claimed growth for this year at that level.
So let's see where we are come the summer recess 2014. ICM showing a Tory lead in the polls and the Scottish referendum being potentially a far closer result than most expect, is my hunch.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10185616/The-Left-talks-gibberish-while-David-Cameron-racks-up-successes.html
For all the noise and condescension from the likes of tim, the coalition is quietly getting on and doing a good job. Imperfect, occasionally shambolic - but pulling steadily and determinedly in the right direction. The left has lost the argument on state control and spending and will need to find another one by 2015.
The Kipper Factor votes may have impact on marginals too - whilst Labour have been strong on GOTV, Kippers have also significantly upped their game and are eating share in places where the Tories can't win - such as South Shields and in closer races like Eastleigh.
It'd be interesting to take the top 100 targets for each party and see what a Kipper share of say 7% would do to the dynamics. If EdM really thinks that his voters have nowhere else to go [and I doubt this but let's see] Kippers are certainly very keen to offer them a new home.
The Tories have certainly got their act together for the first time in a long while - its been on the up since Osborne's Statement. Its also been consistent despite the odd bump in the road. Last year the Alt Queen's Speech would've caused much arguing that lasted weeks, this summer its been dismissed as irrelevant nonsense within a day. That' tells me a lot has changed in how Number 10 is handling party management...
after the economic mess it inherited.
The Conservatives are setting the pace in preparing policies for the next manifesto. It is increasingly clear what will be in it in terms of welfare reform, immigration policy, health service policy and renegotiation and referendum on europe. I may not like much of it, but it is clear what they stand for, and increasingly coherent. The contrast with Labour is stark, and the LibDems have gone rather quiet. A number seem to be enjoying thrir time in govt and would not be averse to carrying on.
It is increasingly clear that the Tories have their tails up with good reason. The Labour front bench is very lacklustre and uninspiring, just look at who is who in the shadow cabinet and wonder whether any of them are capable enough to be in govt:
http://www.labour.org.uk/shadow-cabinet
"Recall, effectively allowing MPs to be sacked via a petition of constituents, will be legislated on "as soon as Parliamentary time allows".
But under the plans, only a jail term or a Commons committee ruling could trigger the process - not voters.
Critics say this mean politicians sitting in judgement on politicians.
Under current rules, MPs can only be removed from their seats between elections if they are convicted of a crime resulting in a prison sentence of 12 months or longer.
But under the new plans if an MP was sentenced to 12 months or less, a petition would automatically be opened in their constituency. If it was signed by at least 10% of constituents, the seat would be vacated and a by-election called.
Separately, a petition would be opened following a ruling from the House of Commons, if an MP committed "serious wrongdoing" - the government gives the example of a "serious breach of the House of Commons Code of Conduct". Again, constituents would then decide whether or not a by-election should be called. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23346537#
But I bet you didn't expect that deficit to be 10%, did you?
bit quiet w\o yesterday, try to keep yourself off the naughty step in future old chap ;-)
"...Under the scheme, inspection teams are to be larger, with between 20 and 30 people, including five or six doctors and the same number of nurses, managers, allied health professionals and patients (classed as "experts by experience").
The teams will be trained by the CQC. The overhaul has been forced on the CQC because the much less demanding inspection regime it ran, from its creation in 2009, failed to uncover poor care at several hospitals.
The scheme builds on the methodology employed by the medical director of the NHS, Sir Bruce Keogh, in his review of the high mortality rates at 14 hospital trusts, a report published Tuesday.
Each inspection will entail teams of inspectors examining care across a hospital's services and always in eight key areas, including A&E, maternity and paediatric units, care for the frail elderly and end of life care.The new approach, which will be backed up by Ofsted-style ratings for hospitals from January, could lead to units being judged "inadequate" and perhaps closed, Richards said.
The scheme will be trialled, before Christmas, at 18 hospital trusts, including six where the CQC has concerns about care quality. None of the 18 are among the 14 investigated by Keogh's review of high mortality rates at hospitals... http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2013/jul/18/nhs-watchdog-cqc-hospital-inspection
Ed's head in a lightbulb on the front page of the Sun wont hurt either.
Oborne has his dander up...
Michael Foot's 1983 Election manifesto was the longest political suicide note known to man but in Ed Miliband the nation has for the next two years the longest political slow death in British history.
How long do you give Burnham ?
Travelling today ??
There are clouds in the sky. Lovely, cooling, sun-blocking clouds. Huzzah for the benevolence of Zeus!
Labour's lead varies from 0% to 11%. Given this is th midterm period and Labour are the sole nationwide opposition whilst the Conservatives and Lib Dems govern during a very difficult time that's not necessarily enough.
I still think, sadly, that Labour will end up the largest party, but it's not a dead cert.
Outwith the usual VI polling two specifics I believe are worthy of especial note. Firstly as the economy recovers how does Labour rate on the economy and secondly Ed's numbers with Labour supporters. If both figures continue to slip then Labour's goose is cooked and the Coalition will enjoy the feast.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/article4751667.ece
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-23352230
- I took 125/1, money has piled on today and best price is 18’s.
Looking at the draw they must fancy meeting Brazil as the surprise Semi Finalists.
What odds all Semi Finalists speaking Spanish?
Brazil - Uruguay
Argentina - Spain.
by tim June 23rd, 2010 at 22:13"
"McCluskey added that he would be delighted if Miliband achieved his goal of persuading 10% of the 3 million political levy payers to join the party.
But in a stark warning, the Unite boss said that there was clearly a danger that Miliband's plan "could fall flat on its face and fail". He added: "There is no doubt we would have to work very hard because our members are not queuing to join the Labour party, or be associated with the Labour party. That is really Ed's challenge...
...The union boss was also frank about the failings in the current institutional links between the party and the unions. "One thing is clear: the current relationship that we have between the union and the Labour party is not working. Recent events have made me reflect on what we do. I can no longer defend putting 1 million of my members as affiliates to the Labour party when our own internal polling demonstrates that a large chunk of that 1 million vote for other parties.
"I have got to be honest with you. I cannot justify that. We badly needed to change the relationship anyway."
*rubs chin*
What odds are you for The Open ??
This German has a sense of humour, even if the NSA doesn't
http://gigaom.com/2013/07/16/satire-is-dead-cops-question-german-after-he-jokes-about-nsa-on-facebook/
ah happy times...
One factor I shall be closely watching for is the prospect of significant differential turnout. This comes down to the Ed factor. If his personal numbers with Labour inclined voters remain weak then some will sit on their hands, similarly swing voters will be less inclined to change course and Coalition voters will be more energized. Result - a shocker for Labour.
Two - Hamish McMiliband and his West Highland white terrier named Balls.
Greece: tells you something when 4000 police officers are on duty for a visit by German Fin Min Wolfgang Schaeuble to Athens. #Greece
and its Call Clegg after 9am - http://ukrp.musicradio.com/lbc973/live?rpMsp=3
Whilst supporters will tribally put their hands in the air for the VI question, the leader question of your own team exposes the nitty gritty of where the team is likely going and IMO team Ed is going down the pan !!
"...Because yesterday, Mr Miliband – the day after the publication of an inquiry which detailed thousands of deaths inflicted by the NHS – decided to write a very important letter, about the fact that some guy who works for the Prime Minister's party also worked for a company that sells cigarettes. Clearly the Prime Minister must be a puppet of the tobacco industry! insinuates Mr Miliband, since the Conservative party is, er, their creature (proof: it didn't reverse the smoking ban) and, er, Mr Cameron's leadership of his party was entirely undue to tobacco industry influence, which in fact influences no Tory candidate selection, etc.
I think psychologists might call this guilt transference (parts of the NHS – Labour's demanding health deity – has been shown to kill people, but so do cigarettes, and the PM knows someone who works for cigarettes, so he kills people too, so the NHS is great and Labour can carry on worshipping. Something like that is going on here).
But I'm sure the PM – a former smoker, am I right? – doesn't require a lobbyist to point out to him the sheer un-Tory ghastliness of the idea of plain packaging in the first place.
Since smoking has been banned in pubs (helping to kill them off, the not-so-secret agenda of hot-water-n-lemon drinking New Labour), and their vending machines are on the wane, and supermarkets now fetch cigarettes from behind plastic curtains, using tongs to prevent packet-to-skin contamination and sounding a klaxon so that the unfortunate addict can be publicly shamed by Waitrose customers who pucker their faces up like a cat's backside at the sight (I exaggerate, a bit), and the packets themselves now come bedecked with pictures of tumours – one wonders what a plain box might add to the party..." http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/graemearcher/100226997/cigarette-packaging-david-cameron-ed-miliband-proof-a-plain-packet-can-be-ineffective/
Am I missing something here? Isn't Cameron Prime Minister and Crosby a paid adviser to him? On what planet is Crosby in any position to order Cameron to do anything?
In the face of some strong competition, this really is the most trumped up baseless nonsensical smear story ever put up by the opposition. Staggering that both Labour and the BBC think it's got legs or is indeed of any interest whatsoever to the man in the street.
Tory source re Lynton Crosby + Labour: ‘He’s working and they’re hurting’. Inverts what was Lab attackline on the economy.
In 2015, the recession the coalition will have been nursing the economy back to health from was Labour's. The public still on balance blame them for the austerity stuff (rightly), and that is only likely to increase as Plan A will appear to have been right all along with an increasingly robust recovery over the next two years. Labour: wrong in office, wrong in opposition. Add to that the disparity between Blair and Miliband's personal ratings (and Balls and the 1997-version of Brown's), the rumbling effects of Labour and Miliband being simultaneously too close to and at war with the big unions, and you have plenty in place to be talking about a minimum of Con most seats.
The difference is that the events of the 1992-97 parliament undermined confidence in Tory economic policies, despite the recovery; the 2010-15 parliament will enhance confidence in them, because of the recovery.
It's a gift to the counterfeiters as far as I can see. If HMG don't want people smoke - raise the age you can buy them or ban them.
Re:Kippers, I had some for breakfast and very nice too but presume (in your feline household) that was not what you are meaning.
The polls usually show a significant number of 2010 Cons who are not happy with the Coalition. In today's YouGov only 55% of 2010 Cons approve of HMG's record whilst 31% disapprove. If we look at current VI, only 78% approve, 8% disapprove and 14% are DK.
Thus there is a significant number who are fed up and frustrated with the LDs slowing up the necessary action, especially in the areas of public sector reform, immigration & ECHR and economic reform. (The LDs publicly support immigration, ECHR and public sector). They would have been annoyed by the LDs withdrawing support for the constituency reduction and reform.
So, the dam burst and the bandwagon gathered speed- initially as a protest. Also there are many who are usual LD and Labour voters who have felt neglected by their parties and, to a lesser extent than disgruntled Cons, have joined the same bandwagon.
As yet UKIP have not fully revealed their policies and we may see more at the coming Conference season.
To get the former Cons to return to the fold, a good illustration on the effect on Con seats of voting UKIP may persuade some to return but others may be lost for a longer time. Good action by the Cons (in the style of Mrs May) may even bring some of the errant Labour into the Cons fold.
We will have to see what the next few months bring - and there are always events!
The questions will keep coming, for Labour will keep writing them.
"In the end, a deal was struck. We were able to address the first two groups of amendments, being the substantive part of the changes tabled so far. We finished not long before 1am, a welcome surprise for MPs who had been prepared for an all night effort and had already rearranged diaries for the next day. Over 20 amendments were discussed at length and voted down.
The EU Referendum Bill still has some way to go before it can come back to the Commons. There will be more committee sittings when Parliament returns in September and then the battle on the floor of the house will recommence. The crucial first step of its first day at committee has now been passed, and our MPs have demonstrated beyond all doubt their commitment to supporting it and doing all we can to ensure it has the best possible chance of passing into law..."
Golf - back someone who has already won at least 2 majors and you won't be far away.
ONS @statisticsONS
#Crime in England & Wales fell 9% in the year to March according to the crime survey, while recorded crime fell 7% bit.ly/18njLZb
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/golf/23343727
Surprised (well, not really) that half the gender-restricted clubs in the UK having women-only members got the briefest of mentions.
It's rather ironic that in seeming to battle sexism the article and media coverage more broadly focuses only on male-only membership clubs and practically ignores the women-only clubs.
UK retail sales up 0.2% m/m in June. Rise +2.2% y/y on the year. 3m/3m rate was +0.9%. ONS says retail sector adds 0.1% to Q2 GDP growth
ONS @statisticsONS
Quantity bought in the #retail sector in June 2013 increased by 2.2% compared with June 2012 bit.ly/13udTof
Matthew Goodwin is researching a book about the rise of ukip, out in Feb apparently
Matthew Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ)
16/07/2013 17:14
Another fascinating day interviewing Ukippers for book on the party, which also analyses over 100k voters to track and explain support #ukip
We know from experience that banning something or making it illegal (e.g. alcohol and under-age sex) only leads to smuggling or DIY.
When I worked on smoking and health,the most visually shocking thing was a section of a diseased lung.
It is most important to discourage new smokers at school age. So if in their health/human biology/citizenship etc lessons all children from the age of 11 had to see such an exhibit- would it discourage many of them from starting? Or would the NUT object, as many teachers used to be smokers - BTW do schools have smoking areas for staff during their breaks?
After all we have a Labour Party that is more comfortable standing next to a giant packet of snouts than discussing the economy. Mind you if you've called the big economic decisions so spectacularly wrong what choice do you have?
It's always hard to build on what you've done as good ideas get used up or are discovered to be harder than expected to implement.
That the LDs have blocked some initiatives probably means there's more in the cupboard than we'd expect at this stage - getting the balance right for the floating voter/not going all Peter Bone is the hard bit.
Another labour attack plan failure.
18/07/2013 08:25
Salmond/Miller: 50% of single sex golf clubs are women only, is that sexist? I can't join Cambridge Uni Ospreys, is that sexist?
Funnily sexism in religion never seems to get them fired up into a frenzy - strange one.
All this good news is waiting for one of his tables!
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/crime-stats/crime-statistics/period-ending-march-2013/stb-crime--period-ending-march-2013.html
Key points
- Latest figures from the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) estimate that there were 8.6 million crimes in England and Wales, based on interviews with a representative sample of households and resident adults in the year ending March 2013. This represents a 9% decrease compared with the previous year’s survey. - This latest estimate is the lowest since the survey began in 1981 and is now less than half its peak level in 1995.
- The CSEW also estimated that there were an additional 0.8 million crimes against children aged 10 to 15 resident in the household population.
- The police recorded 3.7 million offences in the year ending March 2013, a decrease of 7% compared with the previous year. This is the lowest level since 2002/03 when the last major change in police recording practice was introduced.
- Victim-based crime accounted for 83% of all police recorded crime (3.1 million offences) and fell by 9% in the year ending March 2013 compared with the previous year. The volume of offences recorded in this category is equivalent to 55 recorded offences per 1,000 population.
- Other crimes against society recorded by the police (402,615 offences) showed a decrease of 10% compared with the previous year.
- In the year ending March 2013, 229,018 fraud offences were recorded by the police. This represents a volume increase of 27% compared with the previous year and should be seen in the context of a move to centralised recording of fraud.
- Within victim-based crime there were decreases across all the main categories of recorded crime compared with the previous year, except for theft from the person (up 9%) and sexual offences (1% increase). The latter increase is thought to be partly a ‘Yewtree effect’, whereby greater numbers of victims of sexual offences have come forward to report historical offences to the police.
- There were an additional 1.0 million offences dealt with by the courts in the year ending December 2012 (the latest period for which data are available), which are not included in the police recorded crime figures. These cover less serious crimes, such as speeding offences, which are dealt with no higher than magistrates courts.
The new post will be advertised within the next 48 hours and an open process held to select the right candidate. No one at Labour HQ will confirm who's likely to get it but I understand that some big names from the Lobby are in play.
The recruit will be based at 1, Brewer's Green, Labour's headquarters, rather than in the Leader's office, and they will report directly to Bob Roberts (the ex Daily Mirror pol ed who has sharpened up the party's press operation).
The new hire is not a response to Lynton Crosby (it has been planned for some while) but is more about focusing on the 2015 general election. http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/82212/ed_beefs_up_comms.html
EDIT - BRES PLAYS.
Mark Easton tweets: "Police are doing a brilliant job. We asked them to do more with less and they are doing that. I want to thank them." David Cameron"
Funny what happens when you focus on outcomes, (falling crime) not inputs (number of Policemen)......and another Labour fox is taken out and shot.....anyone seen Mrs Balls?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BPceHXtCUAANhLF.jpg:large