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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big picture is that Labour still has a majority winning

SystemSystem Posts: 12,179
edited July 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big picture is that Labour still has a majority winning lead and the Tories have yet to find the magic bullet

It’s parliamentary recess time. The 2012-2013 political season is over only to return in early September and then into the conference season which for whatever reason kicks off a week earlier than usual.

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Comments

  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,314
    edited July 2013
    "The big picture is that Labour still has a majority winning lead and the Tories have yet to find the magic bullet"

    I disagree, the big picture is that the narrative is now changing, and with it the perceptions that Labour are nailed on to win the next GE under Ed Miliband whatever happens. And if all the sound and fury directed at Lynton Crosby this week is any guide, the Conservatives have found their very effective magic bullet. And the perception that Labour can't win the next GE will be key factor with those 2010 Libdem switchers who don't want to back another loser.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,314
    Twitter
    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 17m
    No overall majority now the Betfair favourite outcome for GE2015 See pic.twitter.com/qECivvD4iU
  • chamindachaminda Posts: 4
    "EdM moves into a negative position amongst LAB supporters"

    This could well be driven by dissatisfaction amongst some Labour supporters over the party's new tougher line on welfare and spending. I don't imagine for a moment it will translate into significant lost votes at the general election - Miliband is banking on the same equation as Brown and Blair before him, that natural Labour voters have nowhere else to go.

    The mere geography of key marginals has handed the next election to Labour on a plate.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Latest YouGov/The Sun results 17th July - Con 31%, Lab 37%, LD 12%, UKIP 13%; APP -32
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    The Tories will never win a majority again, but at least they're in government and look like staying there. It is Labour that need the magic bullet to return to government and they haven't found it yet - too big an ask after Brown's shambles
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    ICM is the Gold Standard.

    Run your fingernail across the results of other pollsters and the gilt flakes off revealing only naked brass beneath.

    Has Burnham resigned yet?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Best headline of yesterday goes to The Guardian.

    http://bit.ly/13cGa6W

    Pamela Stephenson Connolly to the rescue.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    chaminda said:

    "EdM moves into a negative position amongst LAB supporters"

    This could well be driven by dissatisfaction amongst some Labour supporters over the party's new tougher line on welfare and spending. I don't imagine for a moment it will translate into significant lost votes at the general election - Miliband is banking on the same equation as Brown and Blair before him, that natural Labour voters have nowhere else to go.

    The mere geography of key marginals has handed the next election to Labour on a plate.


    Complete tosh. Sounds like the sort of crap tim would write....
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    You can get a more worthwhile 13/8 on NOM with Ladbrokes.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    chaminda said:

    "EdM moves into a negative position amongst LAB supporters"

    This could well be driven by dissatisfaction amongst some Labour supporters over the party's new tougher line on welfare and spending. I don't imagine for a moment it will translate into significant lost votes at the general election - Miliband is banking on the same equation as Brown and Blair before him, that natural Labour voters have nowhere else to go.

    The mere geography of key marginals has handed the next election to Labour on a plate.

    Slapping the unions around may not be helping either.

    He's probably right to optimize for floating voters at this point at the risk of narking off the base, but his downside case for 2015 is that people who voted for Gordon Brown stay at home.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    MikeS;

    The three YouGov polls since Sunday are

    31/40/11/11
    32/38/10/12
    31/37/12/13

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    I should clarify, the "tosh" is the "key marginals handing the election to Labour on a plate."
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    OGH is engaging in LibDem wishful thinking. We all know the economy will determine the outcome of the GE barring a national emergency which would generally work for an incumbent government of any colour anyway.

    The YouGov daily polls swing more than the pendulum of my dining room clock but the clear thing is that Milibland's Labour has never achieved anything like the mid-term opposition leads of his predecessors. Even Michael Foot was a more credible potential PM.

    I have never admitted it before but I have a great deal of respect for the polling views of Rod Crosby and he has consistently been suggesting that we are in for another Conservative win in 2015, albeit a minority win. After a grim 3 years where the chancellor has stuck to his word and imposed what has clearly been harsh living conditions for most ordinary voters, the fact the Tories are still within fighting distance of Labour, bodes well.

    We started the year with Labour talking up a triple dip recession and flatlining economy. 6 months later we now know there was never a second let alone triple dip recession. The only recent recession was Gordon "No return to boom and bust" Brown's 2008 recession which almost destroyed our economy. The flatlining growth has now been upgraded for this year twice and official projections are now 0.9-1%. Frankly if as appears likely next week we learn 2nd Q growth was 0.4-0.6% we are then on track for 2013 growth of between 1.2-1.5%. 6 months ago people like Tim would have shouted about George Osborne's lack of fitness to be Chancellor if he had claimed growth for this year at that level.

    So let's see where we are come the summer recess 2014. ICM showing a Tory lead in the polls and the Scottish referendum being potentially a far closer result than most expect, is my hunch.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    The one big ray of hope - in Mike's words - is not Ed Miliband but a recovering economy. It will also be the magic bullet.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    JohnO said:

    The one big ray of hope - in Mike's words - is not Ed Miliband but a recovering economy. It will also be the magic bullet.

    Like it was in 1997 ? - not
  • I think this Oborne article sums up the big picture quite nicely:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10185616/The-Left-talks-gibberish-while-David-Cameron-racks-up-successes.html

    For all the noise and condescension from the likes of tim, the coalition is quietly getting on and doing a good job. Imperfect, occasionally shambolic - but pulling steadily and determinedly in the right direction. The left has lost the argument on state control and spending and will need to find another one by 2015.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Financier said:

    Latest YouGov/The Sun results 17th July - Con 31%, Lab 37%, LD 12%, UKIP 13%; APP -32

    So the lead is 6 again - wasn't it 6pts the day before as well?

    The Kipper Factor votes may have impact on marginals too - whilst Labour have been strong on GOTV, Kippers have also significantly upped their game and are eating share in places where the Tories can't win - such as South Shields and in closer races like Eastleigh.

    It'd be interesting to take the top 100 targets for each party and see what a Kipper share of say 7% would do to the dynamics. If EdM really thinks that his voters have nowhere else to go [and I doubt this but let's see] Kippers are certainly very keen to offer them a new home.

    The Tories have certainly got their act together for the first time in a long while - its been on the up since Osborne's Statement. Its also been consistent despite the odd bump in the road. Last year the Alt Queen's Speech would've caused much arguing that lasted weeks, this summer its been dismissed as irrelevant nonsense within a day. That' tells me a lot has changed in how Number 10 is handling party management...
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    @MarkSenior - OK, add

    after the economic mess it inherited.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    It is not just Crosby that is firing things up. An improving economy makes Balls "stimulus" package redundant.

    The Conservatives are setting the pace in preparing policies for the next manifesto. It is increasingly clear what will be in it in terms of welfare reform, immigration policy, health service policy and renegotiation and referendum on europe. I may not like much of it, but it is clear what they stand for, and increasingly coherent. The contrast with Labour is stark, and the LibDems have gone rather quiet. A number seem to be enjoying thrir time in govt and would not be averse to carrying on.

    It is increasingly clear that the Tories have their tails up with good reason. The Labour front bench is very lacklustre and uninspiring, just look at who is who in the shadow cabinet and wonder whether any of them are capable enough to be in govt:

    http://www.labour.org.uk/shadow-cabinet
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Really pleased to see this has been retrieved from the long grass.

    "Recall, effectively allowing MPs to be sacked via a petition of constituents, will be legislated on "as soon as Parliamentary time allows".

    But under the plans, only a jail term or a Commons committee ruling could trigger the process - not voters.

    Critics say this mean politicians sitting in judgement on politicians.

    Under current rules, MPs can only be removed from their seats between elections if they are convicted of a crime resulting in a prison sentence of 12 months or longer.

    But under the new plans if an MP was sentenced to 12 months or less, a petition would automatically be opened in their constituency. If it was signed by at least 10% of constituents, the seat would be vacated and a by-election called.

    Separately, a petition would be opened following a ruling from the House of Commons, if an MP committed "serious wrongdoing" - the government gives the example of a "serious breach of the House of Commons Code of Conduct". Again, constituents would then decide whether or not a by-election should be called. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23346537#
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Plato said:

    Financier said:

    Latest YouGov/The Sun results 17th July - Con 31%, Lab 37%, LD 12%, UKIP 13%; APP -32

    So the lead is 6 again - wasn't it 6pts the day before as well?

    The Kipper Factor votes may have impact on marginals too - whilst Labour have been strong on GOTV, Kippers have also significantly upped their game and are eating share in places where the Tories can't win - such as South Shields and in closer races like Eastleigh.

    It'd be interesting to take the top 100 targets for each party and see what a Kipper share of say 7% would do to the dynamics. If EdM really thinks that his voters have nowhere else to go [and I doubt this but let's see] Kippers are certainly very keen to offer them a new home.

    The Tories have certainly got their act together for the first time in a long while - its been on the up since Osborne's Statement. Its also been consistent despite the odd bump in the road. Last year the Alt Queen's Speech would've caused much arguing that lasted weeks, this summer its been dismissed as irrelevant nonsense within a day. That' tells me a lot has changed in how Number 10 is handling party management...
    Latest Yougov , UKIP 18% of the 2010 Con vote equals 7% of the total 2010 vote and 5% of the 2010 Labour vote equals 1.5% of the total 2010 vote . UKIP effect is almost a 3% swing from Con to Lab .
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    tim said:

    The picture is that the Tories have had a good few weeks on the back of message discipline and the fact that George Osborne "The man who couldn't strategise his way out of a paper bag" has been edged out of one of the jobs he's not very good at.

    But Cameron's reported view remains correct, he has to get UKIP down to 5% in 2015 to stand a chance of keeping his job.
    The polling graphs show that.

    Even on the ICM 36/36 poll Miliband becomes PM.

    The LD 2010 switchers show no signs of moving, despite the fantasies of the PB'ers who called the last election most wildly out.

    That is the closest I have ever seen to an admission by Tim that David Cameron is more likely to be in No 10 at Christmas 2015 than Bland the Younger
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    @tim - In your absence in the sin-bin yesterday, I was defending your 'honour' (such that it is) by saying that you had predicted that Ed would fall behind Dave in the MORI Leaders' ratings (albeit we all realize the low expectations game).

    But I bet you didn't expect that deficit to be 10%, did you?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433
    tim said:

    The picture is that the Tories have had a good few weeks on the back of message discipline and the fact that George Osborne "The man who couldn't strategise his way out of a paper bag" has been edged out of one of the jobs he's not very good at.

    But Cameron's reported view remains correct, he has to get UKIP down to 5% in 2015 to stand a chance of keeping his job.
    The polling graphs show that.

    Even on the ICM 36/36 poll Miliband becomes PM.

    The LD 2010 switchers show no signs of moving, despite the fantasies of the PB'ers who called the last election most wildly out.

    Morning tim,

    bit quiet w\o yesterday, try to keep yourself off the naughty step in future old chap ;-)
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    New larger CQC inspection regime to be introduced before Christmas.

    "...Under the scheme, inspection teams are to be larger, with between 20 and 30 people, including five or six doctors and the same number of nurses, managers, allied health professionals and patients (classed as "experts by experience").

    The teams will be trained by the CQC. The overhaul has been forced on the CQC because the much less demanding inspection regime it ran, from its creation in 2009, failed to uncover poor care at several hospitals.

    The scheme builds on the methodology employed by the medical director of the NHS, Sir Bruce Keogh, in his review of the high mortality rates at 14 hospital trusts, a report published Tuesday.

    Each inspection will entail teams of inspectors examining care across a hospital's services and always in eight key areas, including A&E, maternity and paediatric units, care for the frail elderly and end of life care.The new approach, which will be backed up by Ofsted-style ratings for hospitals from January, could lead to units being judged "inadequate" and perhaps closed, Richards said.

    The scheme will be trialled, before Christmas, at 18 hospital trusts, including six where the CQC has concerns about care quality. None of the 18 are among the 14 investigated by Keogh's review of high mortality rates at hospitals... http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2013/jul/18/nhs-watchdog-cqc-hospital-inspection
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    The only magic bullets are the economy and the presidential nature of GE campaigns.

    Ed's head in a lightbulb on the front page of the Sun wont hurt either.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited July 2013
    The "big picture" is that the "magic bullet" is Ed Miliband.

    Michael Foot's 1983 Election manifesto was the longest political suicide note known to man but in Ed Miliband the nation has for the next two years the longest political slow death in British history.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    @tim - you know my views on both VI and Leader ratings in mid-term....but we shall fairly shortly be moving decidedly into pre-election mode where both will assume a greater import, say in late autumn. Then we have the 2014 budget (couple of pence off the standard rate?) and Euros+locals on the same day on May 22. Fun times ahead.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    JackW said:

    The "big picture" is that the "silver bullet" is Ed Miliband.

    Michael Foot's 1984 Election manifesto was the longest political suicide note known to man but in Ed Miliband the nation has for the next two years the longest political slow death in British history.

    Old Bean, try 1983.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433
    tim said:

    tim said:

    The picture is that the Tories have had a good few weeks on the back of message discipline and the fact that George Osborne "The man who couldn't strategise his way out of a paper bag" has been edged out of one of the jobs he's not very good at.

    But Cameron's reported view remains correct, he has to get UKIP down to 5% in 2015 to stand a chance of keeping his job.
    The polling graphs show that.

    Even on the ICM 36/36 poll Miliband becomes PM.

    The LD 2010 switchers show no signs of moving, despite the fantasies of the PB'ers who called the last election most wildly out.

    Morning tim,

    bit quiet w\o yesterday, try to keep yourself off the naughty step in future old chap ;-)


    I decided to teach a primary school pupil what above and below average meant, took twenty minutes.
    A lot quicker than trying to teach a PB Tory what it means in relation to 13,000 deaths.
    ah ever the wrong target audience, you need to be talking to TV stations and newspapers who are all reporting 13,000. That;s the number and it's out there.

    How long do you give Burnham ?
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    edited July 2013
    Don't we get GDP numbers next week? If they're good then add on all that's happened recently and it will be an uncomfortable run-in to conferences for Labour
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    JohnO said:

    JackW said:

    The "big picture" is that the "silver bullet" is Ed Miliband.

    Michael Foot's 1984 Election manifesto was the longest political suicide note known to man but in Ed Miliband the nation has for the next two years the longest political slow death in British history.

    Old Bean, try 1983.
    Cheers. Duly edited.

    Travelling today ??

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433
    JohnO said:

    @tim - you know my views on both VI and Leader ratings in mid-term....but we shall fairly shortly be moving decidedly into pre-election mode where both will assume a greater import, say in late autumn. Then we have the 2014 budget (couple of pence off the standard rate?) and Euros+locals on the same day on May 22. Fun times ahead.

    yes, John O it will be the economy subject to events, and we've yet to have a feelgood election budget. We'll also this time have two parties claiming they "took the hard decisions" and blackening the two Eds record on the economy.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    JackW said:

    The "big picture" is that the "magic bullet" is Ed Miliband.

    Michael Foot's 1983 Election manifesto was the longest political suicide note known to man but in Ed Miliband the nation has for the next two years the longest political slow death in British history.

    I believe Owen Jones sleeps with a copy of the 1983 manifesto under his pillow :^ )
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    @tim - Just musing...but there'll be some goodies pre 2015.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433
    tim said:

    JohnO said:

    @tim - you know my views on both VI and Leader ratings in mid-term....but we shall fairly shortly be moving decidedly into pre-election mode where both will assume a greater import, say in late autumn. Then we have the 2014 budget (couple of pence off the standard rate?) and Euros+locals on the same day on May 22. Fun times ahead.


    Too late for big tax cuts without blowing the narrative.

    The time for that was 2010 in conjunction with infrastructure and housebuilding tax breaks.
    can't see it being tax rates, it will be thresholds for the hardworkingfamilies.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,838
    Good morning, everyone.

    There are clouds in the sky. Lovely, cooling, sun-blocking clouds. Huzzah for the benevolence of Zeus!

    Labour's lead varies from 0% to 11%. Given this is th midterm period and Labour are the sole nationwide opposition whilst the Conservatives and Lib Dems govern during a very difficult time that's not necessarily enough.

    I still think, sadly, that Labour will end up the largest party, but it's not a dead cert.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    tim said:

    JohnO said:

    @tim - you know my views on both VI and Leader ratings in mid-term....but we shall fairly shortly be moving decidedly into pre-election mode where both will assume a greater import, say in late autumn. Then we have the 2014 budget (couple of pence off the standard rate?) and Euros+locals on the same day on May 22. Fun times ahead.


    Too late for big tax cuts without blowing the narrative.

    The time for that was 2010 in conjunction with infrastructure and housebuilding tax breaks.
    ....and you forgot to add those massive cuts to benefits for the young, old, disabled contained in the 'timconomics' programme for recovery
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JohnO said:

    The one big ray of hope - in Mike's words - is not Ed Miliband but a recovering economy. It will also be the magic bullet.

    Like it was in 1997 ? - not
    That's true Mark but Ed is not the Tony Blair of 97 and the Coalition is recovering a wrecked Labour economy from 2010 rather than a Conservative recovering economy from Conservative recessions in 97.

    Outwith the usual VI polling two specifics I believe are worthy of especial note. Firstly as the economy recovers how does Labour rate on the economy and secondly Ed's numbers with Labour supporters. If both figures continue to slip then Labour's goose is cooked and the Coalition will enjoy the feast.

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    @tim - Er, no, I'll stick with George and Danny (like Ed and Ed are belatedly appearing to do).
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    @tim - So both Eds were talking the proverbial bollox with that "too far too fast" routine. Not like you to be so off-message. We'll make a Tory of you yet (albeit you're a tad too Thatcherite for my tastes).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,838
  • JakeMJakeM Posts: 2
    Tim, next time you teach these primary school children, maybe you could get them to tell you what the official language of Brazil is. I'm sure they'll be able to inform you.

    - I took 125/1, money has piled on today and best price is 18’s.
    Looking at the draw they must fancy meeting Brazil as the surprise Semi Finalists.
    What odds all Semi Finalists speaking Spanish?

    Brazil - Uruguay
    Argentina - Spain.
    by tim June 23rd, 2010 at 22:13"
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Welcome to PB @JakeM
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited July 2013
    I see Mr McCluskey is in the Guardian again... this time an interview. http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/jul/17/labour-policies-len-mcluskey Is he talking like Paul Kenny of GMB about unaffiliating? It sounds like it or a threat to.

    "McCluskey added that he would be delighted if Miliband achieved his goal of persuading 10% of the 3 million political levy payers to join the party.

    But in a stark warning, the Unite boss said that there was clearly a danger that Miliband's plan "could fall flat on its face and fail". He added: "There is no doubt we would have to work very hard because our members are not queuing to join the Labour party, or be associated with the Labour party. That is really Ed's challenge...

    ...The union boss was also frank about the failings in the current institutional links between the party and the unions. "One thing is clear: the current relationship that we have between the union and the Labour party is not working. Recent events have made me reflect on what we do. I can no longer defend putting 1 million of my members as affiliates to the Labour party when our own internal polling demonstrates that a large chunk of that 1 million vote for other parties.

    "I have got to be honest with you. I cannot justify that. We badly needed to change the relationship anyway."
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @JakeM - A warm welcome to PB.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    OGH is engaging in LibDem wishful thinking. We all know the economy will determine the outcome of the GE barring a national emergency which would generally work for an incumbent government of any colour anyway.

    The YouGov daily polls swing more than the pendulum of my dining room clock but the clear thing is that Milibland's Labour has never achieved anything like the mid-term opposition leads of his predecessors. Even Michael Foot was a more credible potential PM.

    I have never admitted it before but I have a great deal of respect for the polling views of Rod Crosby and he has consistently been suggesting that we are in for another Conservative win in 2015, albeit a minority win. After a grim 3 years where the chancellor has stuck to his word and imposed what has clearly been harsh living conditions for most ordinary voters, the fact the Tories are still within fighting distance of Labour, bodes well.

    We started the year with Labour talking up a triple dip recession and flatlining economy. 6 months later we now know there was never a second let alone triple dip recession. The only recent recession was Gordon "No return to boom and bust" Brown's 2008 recession which almost destroyed our economy. The flatlining growth has now been upgraded for this year twice and official projections are now 0.9-1%. Frankly if as appears likely next week we learn 2nd Q growth was 0.4-0.6% we are then on track for 2013 growth of between 1.2-1.5%. 6 months ago people like Tim would have shouted about George Osborne's lack of fitness to be Chancellor if he had claimed growth for this year at that level.

    So let's see where we are come the summer recess 2014. ICM showing a Tory lead in the polls and the Scottish referendum being potentially a far closer result than most expect, is my hunch.

    Agree re Rod Crosby. There was a long period here at PB when he was maligned on an almost daily basis by the usual suspects. In the long run, it turned out that Rod was right and they were wrong. I can't remember seeing many of them apologising.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    This will be a fascinating aspect of the next two years. To what extent the conservative press stop flirting with Ukip and return to the fold and then focus their fire on Miliband. The prospect of a Leveson-plus Labour government will focus their minds and fire acutely in my view.

  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Heathrow,housing and Immigration..Tim is obviously describing the previous Government, which had uncontrolled Immgration, did sweet FA about Heathrow and built very few houses.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Quite a few days of sport ahead - The Open, Lords Test match and Le Tour.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    JackW said:

    This will be a fascinating aspect of the next two years. To what extent the conservative press stop flirting with Ukip and return to the fold and then focus their fire on Miliband. The prospect of a Leveson-plus Labour government will focus their minds and fire acutely in my view.

    The rush of interest in Kippers post LE2013 was fascinating - I wish their polling was clearer - its very hard to tell what's going on/how sticky it really is and who'll benefit or not as a result.

    *rubs chin*
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Heathrow,housing and Immigration..Tim is obviously describing the previous Government, which had uncontrolled Immgration, did sweet FA about Heathrow and built very few houses.

    Hole in one there rD.

    What odds are you for The Open ??

  • O/T Apols if posted before
    This German has a sense of humour, even if the NSA doesn't

    http://gigaom.com/2013/07/16/satire-is-dead-cops-question-german-after-he-jokes-about-nsa-on-facebook/
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    tim said:

    The best World Cup thread of course was the PB Tory anecdote thread about the 1994 World Cup, played in quarters in front of half empty stadiums withe extra large goals and a split screen Coke ad obscuring play.

    Could you get that jake?

    Or the thread about the huskies and Cameron...or that QT was in TV studios..

    ah happy times...
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,541
    A dubious treat for fitalass and other Scottish listeners in a minute - I'll be on BBC Radio Scotland for some time (up to half an hour, they say), talking about animal testing.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Plato said:

    JackW said:

    This will be a fascinating aspect of the next two years. To what extent the conservative press stop flirting with Ukip and return to the fold and then focus their fire on Miliband. The prospect of a Leveson-plus Labour government will focus their minds and fire acutely in my view.

    The rush of interest in Kippers post LE2013 was fascinating - I wish their polling was clearer - its very hard to tell what's going on/how sticky it really is and who'll benefit or not as a result.

    *rubs chin*
    I think Ukip will continue to spike from time to time, clearly in the euro election period. However GE's are different. The punters are happy to flirt with danger and give governments a good kicking outwith the main event. However come the hour my view is that Ukip will fade but may still gain a couple of "personality wins".

    One factor I shall be closely watching for is the prospect of significant differential turnout. This comes down to the Ed factor. If his personal numbers with Labour inclined voters remain weak then some will sit on their hands, similarly swing voters will be less inclined to change course and Coalition voters will be more energized. Result - a shocker for Labour.

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    JackW said:

    Outwith the usual VI polling two specifics I believe are worthy of especial note. Firstly as the economy recovers how does Labour rate on the economy and secondly Ed's numbers with Labour supporters.

    The second of those is truly astonishing. Presumably it's a mixture of puzzlement at Ed's general wonkish uselessness, and increasingly a realisation that all the sound and fury about opposing cuts was a load of hooey and they don't actually oppose them at all. The latter effect is likely to get larger as Labour come under more scrutiny for specific policies.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    A dubious treat for fitalass and other Scottish listeners in a minute - I'll be on BBC Radio Scotland for some time (up to half an hour, they say), talking about animal testing.

    Latest Broxtowe listening figures for Radio Scotland :

    Two - Hamish McMiliband and his West Highland white terrier named Balls.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited July 2013
    Gavin Hewitt @BBCGavinHewitt
    Greece: tells you something when 4000 police officers are on duty for a visit by German Fin Min Wolfgang Schaeuble to Athens. #Greece

    and its Call Clegg after 9am - http://ukrp.musicradio.com/lbc973/live?rpMsp=3
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited July 2013

    JackW said:

    Outwith the usual VI polling two specifics I believe are worthy of especial note. Firstly as the economy recovers how does Labour rate on the economy and secondly Ed's numbers with Labour supporters.

    The second of those is truly astonishing. Presumably it's a mixture of puzzlement at Ed's general wonkish uselessness, and increasingly a realisation that all the sound and fury about opposing cuts was a load of hooey and they don't actually oppose them at all. The latter effect is likely to get larger as Labour come under more scrutiny for specific policies.
    They're killer numbers Nabbers.

    Whilst supporters will tribally put their hands in the air for the VI question, the leader question of your own team exposes the nitty gritty of where the team is likely going and IMO team Ed is going down the pan !!

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Graeme Archer is rather amusing.

    "...Because yesterday, Mr Miliband – the day after the publication of an inquiry which detailed thousands of deaths inflicted by the NHS – decided to write a very important letter, about the fact that some guy who works for the Prime Minister's party also worked for a company that sells cigarettes. Clearly the Prime Minister must be a puppet of the tobacco industry! insinuates Mr Miliband, since the Conservative party is, er, their creature (proof: it didn't reverse the smoking ban) and, er, Mr Cameron's leadership of his party was entirely undue to tobacco industry influence, which in fact influences no Tory candidate selection, etc.

    I think psychologists might call this guilt transference (parts of the NHS – Labour's demanding health deity – has been shown to kill people, but so do cigarettes, and the PM knows someone who works for cigarettes, so he kills people too, so the NHS is great and Labour can carry on worshipping. Something like that is going on here).

    But I'm sure the PM – a former smoker, am I right? – doesn't require a lobbyist to point out to him the sheer un-Tory ghastliness of the idea of plain packaging in the first place.

    Since smoking has been banned in pubs (helping to kill them off, the not-so-secret agenda of hot-water-n-lemon drinking New Labour), and their vending machines are on the wane, and supermarkets now fetch cigarettes from behind plastic curtains, using tongs to prevent packet-to-skin contamination and sounding a klaxon so that the unfortunate addict can be publicly shamed by Waitrose customers who pucker their faces up like a cat's backside at the sight (I exaggerate, a bit), and the packets themselves now come bedecked with pictures of tumours – one wonders what a plain box might add to the party..." http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/graemearcher/100226997/cigarette-packaging-david-cameron-ed-miliband-proof-a-plain-packet-can-be-ineffective/

  • SchardsSchards Posts: 210
    I know it's only BBC Berkshire but today they went with "was David Cameron ordered to change policy by Lynton Crosby?"

    Am I missing something here? Isn't Cameron Prime Minister and Crosby a paid adviser to him? On what planet is Crosby in any position to order Cameron to do anything?

    In the face of some strong competition, this really is the most trumped up baseless nonsensical smear story ever put up by the opposition. Staggering that both Labour and the BBC think it's got legs or is indeed of any interest whatsoever to the man in the street.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    tim said:

    JackW said:

    Outwith the usual VI polling two specifics I believe are worthy of especial note. Firstly as the economy recovers how does Labour rate on the economy and secondly Ed's numbers with Labour supporters.

    The second of those is truly astonishing. Presumably it's a mixture of puzzlement at Ed's general wonkish uselessness, and increasingly a realisation that all the sound and fury about opposing cuts was a load of hooey and they don't actually oppose them at all. The latter effect is likely to get larger as Labour come under more scrutiny for specific policies.
    What do you attribute Eds lead in 15 out of the last 16 months to?
    Hope above expectation.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Paul Waugh @paulwaugh
    Tory source re Lynton Crosby + Labour: ‘He’s working and they’re hurting’. Inverts what was Lab attackline on the economy.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,838
    Mr. Schards, it was apparently the second biggest news story on the ten o'clock news, ahead of the unemployment statistics (where the BBC researchers did sterling work to try and make them sound bad).
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    tim said:

    What do you attribute Eds lead in 15 out of the last 16 months to?

    What lead? The numbers we're talking about are Ed's satisfaction ratings amongst Labour supporters, which have been abysmal all along and aren't getting better. Cameron's ratings amongst Conservative supporters in contrast have varied from the excellent to the North Korean.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,756

    JohnO: "The one big ray of hope - in Mike's words - is not Ed Miliband but a recovering economy. It will also be the magic bullet."

    Like it was in 1997 ? - not

    In 1997, the Tories were effectively punished for the earlier recession which many voters might have liked to punish the party for in 1992 but felt unable to given the threat Labour posed - tax bombshells and all that. By '97, the economy was on the mend, Labour looked a lot safer under Blair, the Tories had lost credibility over the ERM, infighting over Europe and sleaze.

    In 2015, the recession the coalition will have been nursing the economy back to health from was Labour's. The public still on balance blame them for the austerity stuff (rightly), and that is only likely to increase as Plan A will appear to have been right all along with an increasingly robust recovery over the next two years. Labour: wrong in office, wrong in opposition. Add to that the disparity between Blair and Miliband's personal ratings (and Balls and the 1997-version of Brown's), the rumbling effects of Labour and Miliband being simultaneously too close to and at war with the big unions, and you have plenty in place to be talking about a minimum of Con most seats.

    The difference is that the events of the 1992-97 parliament undermined confidence in Tory economic policies, despite the recovery; the 2010-15 parliament will enhance confidence in them, because of the recovery.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited July 2013

    Mr. Schards, it was apparently the second biggest news story on the ten o'clock news, ahead of the unemployment statistics (where the BBC researchers did sterling work to try and make them sound bad).

    Agreed - I caught the Six, and it was given airtime - as @Shards notes - on what planet is a paid advisor in charge of policy like this? It is a terrible idea, the health hardcore didn't particularly want it and it could be illegal. Frankly, I can't imagine that since packets are already hidden from sight that sticking them in the equivalent of brown paper bags will make the slightest difference.

    It's a gift to the counterfeiters as far as I can see. If HMG don't want people smoke - raise the age you can buy them or ban them.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    JackW said:

    This will be a fascinating aspect of the next two years. To what extent the conservative press stop flirting with Ukip and return to the fold and then focus their fire on Miliband. The prospect of a Leveson-plus Labour government will focus their minds and fire acutely in my view.
    In her Leveson testimony Brooks kept stressing how seriously the Sun takes its readers' comments - which were generally hostile to the Sun when they ran the Osborne/Burger story - they will try to stay on the right side of their readers.....

  • SchardsSchards Posts: 210
    Mr Morris Dancer - I smiled at the BBC News where Nick Robinson's voiceover smugly said "the questions keep on coming" followed by a clip of Nick Robinson asking a question about it :-)
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Plato said:

    JackW said:

    This will be a fascinating aspect of the next two years. To what extent the conservative press stop flirting with Ukip and return to the fold and then focus their fire on Miliband. The prospect of a Leveson-plus Labour government will focus their minds and fire acutely in my view.

    The rush of interest in Kippers post LE2013 was fascinating - I wish their polling was clearer - its very hard to tell what's going on/how sticky it really is and who'll benefit or not as a result.

    *rubs chin*
    @Plato

    Re:Kippers, I had some for breakfast and very nice too but presume (in your feline household) that was not what you are meaning.

    The polls usually show a significant number of 2010 Cons who are not happy with the Coalition. In today's YouGov only 55% of 2010 Cons approve of HMG's record whilst 31% disapprove. If we look at current VI, only 78% approve, 8% disapprove and 14% are DK.

    Thus there is a significant number who are fed up and frustrated with the LDs slowing up the necessary action, especially in the areas of public sector reform, immigration & ECHR and economic reform. (The LDs publicly support immigration, ECHR and public sector). They would have been annoyed by the LDs withdrawing support for the constituency reduction and reform.

    So, the dam burst and the bandwagon gathered speed- initially as a protest. Also there are many who are usual LD and Labour voters who have felt neglected by their parties and, to a lesser extent than disgruntled Cons, have joined the same bandwagon.

    As yet UKIP have not fully revealed their policies and we may see more at the coming Conference season.

    To get the former Cons to return to the fold, a good illustration on the effect on Con seats of voting UKIP may persuade some to return but others may be lost for a longer time. Good action by the Cons (in the style of Mrs May) may even bring some of the errant Labour into the Cons fold.

    We will have to see what the next few months bring - and there are always events!





  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,838
    Mr. Schards, I caught that as well.

    The questions will keep coming, for Labour will keep writing them.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Tom Newton Dunn tweets: "Hearing Tory MPs are so happy they only had "3 or 4" questions for @David_Cameron at the 1922 Committee last night, then silence. Wow."
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited July 2013
    James Wharton's EU Bill talked out last night as expected. http://conservativehome.blogs.com/platform/2013/07/from-jameswhartonmp-how-labour-and-the-libdems-filibustered-my-eu-referendum-bill-last-night.html

    "In the end, a deal was struck. We were able to address the first two groups of amendments, being the substantive part of the changes tabled so far. We finished not long before 1am, a welcome surprise for MPs who had been prepared for an all night effort and had already rearranged diaries for the next day. Over 20 amendments were discussed at length and voted down.

    The EU Referendum Bill still has some way to go before it can come back to the Commons. There will be more committee sittings when Parliament returns in September and then the battle on the floor of the house will recommence. The crucial first step of its first day at committee has now been passed, and our MPs have demonstrated beyond all doubt their commitment to supporting it and doing all we can to ensure it has the best possible chance of passing into law..."
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited July 2013
    Back England and lay the draw.

    Golf - back someone who has already won at least 2 majors and you won't be far away.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Whether you believe them or not

    ONS @statisticsONS
    #Crime in England & Wales fell 9% in the year to March according to the crime survey, while recorded crime fell 7% bit.ly/18njLZb
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,838
    I'm not into golf, but the Open gender debate is interesting:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/golf/23343727

    Surprised (well, not really) that half the gender-restricted clubs in the UK having women-only members got the briefest of mentions.

    It's rather ironic that in seeming to battle sexism the article and media coverage more broadly focuses only on male-only membership clubs and practically ignores the women-only clubs.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited July 2013
    Markit Economics @MarkitEconomics
    UK retail sales up 0.2% m/m in June. Rise +2.2% y/y on the year. 3m/3m rate was +0.9%. ONS says retail sector adds 0.1% to Q2 GDP growth

    ONS @statisticsONS
    Quantity bought in the #retail sector in June 2013 increased by 2.2% compared with June 2012 bit.ly/13udTof
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Plato said:

    JackW said:

    This will be a fascinating aspect of the next two years. To what extent the conservative press stop flirting with Ukip and return to the fold and then focus their fire on Miliband. The prospect of a Leveson-plus Labour government will focus their minds and fire acutely in my view.

    The rush of interest in Kippers post LE2013 was fascinating - I wish their polling was clearer - its very hard to tell what's going on/how sticky it really is and who'll benefit or not as a result.

    *rubs chin*

    Matthew Goodwin is researching a book about the rise of ukip, out in Feb apparently

    Matthew Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ)
    16/07/2013 17:14
    Another fascinating day interviewing Ukippers for book on the party, which also analyses over 100k voters to track and explain support #ukip
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Plato said:

    Mr. Schards, it was apparently the second biggest news story on the ten o'clock news, ahead of the unemployment statistics (where the BBC researchers did sterling work to try and make them sound bad).

    Agreed - I caught the Six, and it was given airtime - as @Shards notes - on what planet is a paid advisor in charge of policy like this? It is a terrible idea, the health hardcore didn't particularly want it and it could be illegal. Frankly, I can't imagine that since packets are already hidden from sight that sticking them in the equivalent of brown paper bags will make the slightest difference.

    It's a gift to the counterfeiters as far as I can see. If HMG don't want people smoke - raise the age you can buy them or ban them.
    @Plato

    We know from experience that banning something or making it illegal (e.g. alcohol and under-age sex) only leads to smuggling or DIY.

    When I worked on smoking and health,the most visually shocking thing was a section of a diseased lung.

    It is most important to discourage new smokers at school age. So if in their health/human biology/citizenship etc lessons all children from the age of 11 had to see such an exhibit- would it discourage many of them from starting? Or would the NUT object, as many teachers used to be smokers - BTW do schools have smoking areas for staff during their breaks?

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    isam said:

    Plato said:

    JackW said:

    This will be a fascinating aspect of the next two years. To what extent the conservative press stop flirting with Ukip and return to the fold and then focus their fire on Miliband. The prospect of a Leveson-plus Labour government will focus their minds and fire acutely in my view.

    The rush of interest in Kippers post LE2013 was fascinating - I wish their polling was clearer - its very hard to tell what's going on/how sticky it really is and who'll benefit or not as a result.

    *rubs chin*

    Matthew Goodwin is researching a book about the rise of ukip, out in Feb apparently

    Matthew Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ)
    16/07/2013 17:14
    Another fascinating day interviewing Ukippers for book on the party, which also analyses over 100k voters to track and explain support #ukip
    Thanks for that - looks very interesting.
  • My own view has been for a long time that the economy will decide the next election, and should it continue to improve the Tories have a good chance of winning. The polls might not narrow till far closer to the election itself but I believe when the voters see the whites of Labour's eyes and have the threat of Chancellor Balls then they'll go with the Tory party.

    After all we have a Labour Party that is more comfortable standing next to a giant packet of snouts than discussing the economy. Mind you if you've called the big economic decisions so spectacularly wrong what choice do you have?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Financier said:

    Plato said:

    Mr. Schards, it was apparently the second biggest news story on the ten o'clock news, ahead of the unemployment statistics (where the BBC researchers did sterling work to try and make them sound bad).

    Agreed - I caught the Six, and it was given airtime - as @Shards notes - on what planet is a paid advisor in charge of policy like this? It is a terrible idea, the health hardcore didn't particularly want it and it could be illegal. Frankly, I can't imagine that since packets are already hidden from sight that sticking them in the equivalent of brown paper bags will make the slightest difference.

    It's a gift to the counterfeiters as far as I can see. If HMG don't want people smoke - raise the age you can buy them or ban them.
    @Plato

    We know from experience that banning something or making it illegal (e.g. alcohol and under-age sex) only leads to smuggling or DIY.

    When I worked on smoking and health,the most visually shocking thing was a section of a diseased lung.

    It is most important to discourage new smokers at school age. So if in their health/human biology/citizenship etc lessons all children from the age of 11 had to see such an exhibit- would it discourage many of them from starting? Or would the NUT object, as many teachers used to be smokers - BTW do schools have smoking areas for staff during their breaks?

    Ooh, I don't know - but we had a school trip to a prison when I was a kid and it'd scare the arse off most little tearaways who thought it was cool/hard until that point. The noise/smell was !!!!!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,541
    Irritating Radio Scotland after some (reasonable) first dicussion with a pro-testing lady, we were both kept on the line for 25 minutes while the presenters wittered on - difficult issue, hard to know the facts (why not talk to your two guests who have them?), then finally got back to us and said they were changing the subject. Radio stations do that a lot, I've found - basically they like to have you on hand in case they have a minute to fill. Ah well!
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    It'll be interesting to see what the Tories stick in their GE2015 manifesto.

    It's always hard to build on what you've done as good ideas get used up or are discovered to be harder than expected to implement.

    That the LDs have blocked some initiatives probably means there's more in the cupboard than we'd expect at this stage - getting the balance right for the floating voter/not going all Peter Bone is the hard bit.

    My own view has been for a long time that the economy will decide the next election, and should it continue to improve the Tories have a good chance of winning. The polls might not narrow till far closer to the election itself but I believe when the voters see the whites of Labour's eyes and have the threat of Chancellor Balls then they'll go with the Tory party.

    After all we have a Labour Party that is more comfortable standing next to a giant packet of snouts than discussing the economy. Mind you if you've called the big economic decisions so spectacularly wrong what choice do you have?

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Irritating Radio Scotland after some (reasonable) first dicussion with a pro-testing lady, we were both kept on the line for 25 minutes while the presenters wittered on - difficult issue, hard to know the facts (why not talk to your two guests who have them?), then finally got back to us and said they were changing the subject. Radio stations do that a lot, I've found - basically they like to have you on hand in case they have a minute to fill. Ah well!

    Ah .... I think you'll find Nick that there were complaints from the Scots audience that they couldn't understand your accent !!

  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    So much for the 'crime will rocket' under the tories prediction.

    Another labour attack plan failure.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    So much for the 'crime will rocket' under the tories prediction.

    Another labour attack plan failure.

    Apparently there are fewer coppers as well, back to 2002 levels - I assume this will be the next line 'what would happen if there were riots again!?!??!' The police wouldn't wait 3 days to do something about it hopefully...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Godfrey Bloom (@Goddersukip)
    18/07/2013 08:25
    Salmond/Miller: 50% of single sex golf clubs are women only, is that sexist? I can't join Cambridge Uni Ospreys, is that sexist?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    isam said:

    Godfrey Bloom (@Goddersukip)
    18/07/2013 08:25
    Salmond/Miller: 50% of single sex golf clubs are women only, is that sexist? I can't join Cambridge Uni Ospreys, is that sexist?

    The lefties and perma-offended love something to get all uppity about sam - whether it's a sport they don't play or a cigarette packet that they never buy - let them have their handwringing.

    Funnily sexism in religion never seems to get them fired up into a frenzy - strange one.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Where is @AveryLP?

    All this good news is waiting for one of his tables!
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited July 2013
    Crime stats - summary


    http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/crime-stats/crime-statistics/period-ending-march-2013/stb-crime--period-ending-march-2013.html

    Key points

    - Latest figures from the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) estimate that there were 8.6 million crimes in England and Wales, based on interviews with a representative sample of households and resident adults in the year ending March 2013. This represents a 9% decrease compared with the previous year’s survey. - This latest estimate is the lowest since the survey began in 1981 and is now less than half its peak level in 1995.

    - The CSEW also estimated that there were an additional 0.8 million crimes against children aged 10 to 15 resident in the household population.

    - The police recorded 3.7 million offences in the year ending March 2013, a decrease of 7% compared with the previous year. This is the lowest level since 2002/03 when the last major change in police recording practice was introduced.

    - Victim-based crime accounted for 83% of all police recorded crime (3.1 million offences) and fell by 9% in the year ending March 2013 compared with the previous year. The volume of offences recorded in this category is equivalent to 55 recorded offences per 1,000 population.

    - Other crimes against society recorded by the police (402,615 offences) showed a decrease of 10% compared with the previous year.

    - In the year ending March 2013, 229,018 fraud offences were recorded by the police. This represents a volume increase of 27% compared with the previous year and should be seen in the context of a move to centralised recording of fraud.

    - Within victim-based crime there were decreases across all the main categories of recorded crime compared with the previous year, except for theft from the person (up 9%) and sexual offences (1% increase). The latter increase is thought to be partly a ‘Yewtree effect’, whereby greater numbers of victims of sexual offences have come forward to report historical offences to the police.

    - There were an additional 1.0 million offences dealt with by the courts in the year ending December 2012 (the latest period for which data are available), which are not included in the police recorded crime figures. These cover less serious crimes, such as speeding offences, which are dealt with no higher than magistrates courts.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Ed Miliband has decided to beef up his media team with a new hire of Deputy Director of Communications, I can reveal.

    The new post will be advertised within the next 48 hours and an open process held to select the right candidate. No one at Labour HQ will confirm who's likely to get it but I understand that some big names from the Lobby are in play.

    The recruit will be based at 1, Brewer's Green, Labour's headquarters, rather than in the Leader's office, and they will report directly to Bob Roberts (the ex Daily Mirror pol ed who has sharpened up the party's press operation).

    The new hire is not a response to Lynton Crosby (it has been planned for some while) but is more about focusing on the 2015 general election. http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/82212/ed_beefs_up_comms.html
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    tim said:

    isam said:

    Godfrey Bloom (@Goddersukip)
    18/07/2013 08:25
    Salmond/Miller: 50% of single sex golf clubs are women only, is that sexist? I can't join Cambridge Uni Ospreys, is that sexist?


    He can't join the women's rowing squad either.
    Looks like he's missed the point.


    What is wrong with private clubs deciding who they have as members, based on whatever they like?


  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited July 2013
    Rumours Tremlett plays - rumours mind you.

    EDIT - BRES PLAYS.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Any markets on whether Maria Miller will get reshuffled ?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited July 2013
    Plato said:

    Whether you believe them or not

    ONS @statisticsONS
    #Crime in England & Wales fell 9% in the year to March according to the crime survey, while recorded crime fell 7% bit.ly/18njLZb

    Today did a 'compare & contrast' of 'falling Police numbers' with 'falling crime' and had someone from the Police Federation getting duffed up by a Police Commissioner over his whinging......

    Mark Easton tweets: "Police are doing a brilliant job. We asked them to do more with less and they are doing that. I want to thank them." David Cameron"

    Funny what happens when you focus on outcomes, (falling crime) not inputs (number of Policemen)......and another Labour fox is taken out and shot.....anyone seen Mrs Balls?
  • Resisted last few months, but definitely starting to look an upward trend in volume of retail sales:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BPceHXtCUAANhLF.jpg:large
This discussion has been closed.