Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield’s PB local elections special

2

Comments

  • PongPong Posts: 4,693

    Mirror front page not good for Osborne - parking in a disabled bay. https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/319911845773316096/photo/1

    Hilarious!

    Come on George. Time to put on your best fake accent & explain to us plebs how it was actually all your drivers fault.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Makes sense for Labour to hold back and wait for the Tories to overdo it - as they almost certainly will. For the same reason Ukip should copy the LDs and try and seem in-between Labour and Tory on this overall but pick out one thing that's safe e.g. limiting child benefit to two kids.

    As loads of people would have liked to have more than two kids themselves but couldn't afford to largely because of the ever-increasing cost of finding a house near a school with a minimal amount of stabbing then limiting the benefit to two will be seem as on the "fair" side of the line.

    Whatever the rights and wrongs of the welfare system in itself, attacking it while at the same time importing millions of unskilled and semi-skilled labour is economic warfare on the poor so even people who agree with workfare in principle will see it that way - or at least they will see it that way when the Tories overstep - which they will.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,194
    edited April 2013
    Pong said:

    Mirror front page not good for Osborne - parking in a disabled bay. https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/319911845773316096/photo/1

    Hilarious!

    Come on George. Time to put on your best fake accent & explain to us plebs how it was actually all your drivers fault.
    From the look of the mirror photo no less (And the treasury story tallies) it WAS his driver's fault though ! This reminds me of the train incident with his apolitically aware SPAD !
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JananGanesh: I generally espouse the Finkelstein Doctrine that almost all events change nothing politically. This week has been an exception.
  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    Millsy said:

    Mirror front page not good for Osborne - parking in a disabled bay. https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/319911845773316096/photo/1

    Most of us have done it at some point..
    Speak for yourself!

    I never ever do it. Disabled bays are there for a damn good reason.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,607
    "the London elite have no connection to their own"

    I think they do but they don't consider the provincial proles 'their own' or for that matter the provincial elite either **.

    They are far more likely to associate with the 'elite' in New York, Paris and other 'world cities'.

    I am not refering to antifrank in particular with the above.

    ** I have to be careful when using the word 'elite' now after discovering yesturday that I was a member of that group.

  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    edited April 2013
    @Tim

    Will Quince, the 2010 Conservative candidate, has been re-selected for 2015 in Colchester, I'm told. So he's your man.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Richard

    Nice try. Osborne has already admitted he was in the car but didn't realise.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    I can't believe that people here think that the master strategist drives himself around!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,794
    Good evening, everyone.

    Makes a change from questioning Osborne's train travel habits.

    Meanwhile in the real world, most people are pissed and confounded by the ridiculous leniency of the Philpott sentences. Nothing Osborne said in that regard was offensive, and was a rare case of him actually being right.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,607
    I can honestly say I've never parked in a disabled bay.

    Was Osborne driving or was it a government chauffer?

    Coming so soon after the train ticket embarrassment it does suggest an excessive sense of entitlement from Osborne.

    And what are welfare scroungers but people with an excessive sense of entitlement?
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Ave it!

    Newcastle LOOL!!

    Cardiff next!!!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,405

    "the London elite have no connection to their own"

    I think they do but they don't consider the provincial proles 'their own' or for that matter the provincial elite either **.

    They are far more likely to associate with the 'elite' in New York, Paris and other 'world cities'.

    I am not refering to antifrank in particular with the above.

    ** I have to be careful when using the word 'elite' now after discovering yesturday that I was a member of that group.

    LOL wouldn't worry about that . antifrank likes to run a wind up every so often on how good London just to annoy the provincials. I blame the Luftwaffe, they couldn't do the job right, crap German quality..... ;-)
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    tim said:

    Treasury sources have gone into overdrive.
    They'd better be telling the truth regarding Osborne not being in the car when it was parked.

    Taking Huhne as a precedent, it is pretty well known to be the responsibility of the driver of the car for any infringements while driving.

    As a passenger, or a pedestrian getting into the vehicle it is possible for you to be unaware of any transgression.

  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Did we win in Knowsley?!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,607

    "the London elite have no connection to their own"

    I think they do but they don't consider the provincial proles 'their own' or for that matter the provincial elite either **.

    They are far more likely to associate with the 'elite' in New York, Paris and other 'world cities'.

    I am not refering to antifrank in particular with the above.

    ** I have to be careful when using the word 'elite' now after discovering yesturday that I was a member of that group.

    LOL wouldn't worry about that . antifrank likes to run a wind up every so often on how good London just to annoy the provincials. I blame the Luftwaffe, they couldn't do the job right, crap German quality..... ;-)
    Doesn't antifrank come from Norfolk originally?

    So maybe there's a subconcious attempt to show he's more metropolitan than the proper metropolitans ;-)

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,405

    "the London elite have no connection to their own"

    I think they do but they don't consider the provincial proles 'their own' or for that matter the provincial elite either **.

    They are far more likely to associate with the 'elite' in New York, Paris and other 'world cities'.

    I am not refering to antifrank in particular with the above.

    ** I have to be careful when using the word 'elite' now after discovering yesturday that I was a member of that group.

    LOL wouldn't worry about that . antifrank likes to run a wind up every so often on how good London just to annoy the provincials. I blame the Luftwaffe, they couldn't do the job right, crap German quality..... ;-)
    Doesn't antifrank come from Norfolk originally?

    So maybe there's a subconcious attempt to show he's more metropolitan than the proper metropolitans ;-)

    A lot of the metropolitans are provincials bigging themselves up. Usually worst in the banks and the professions. :-)
  • mosesmoses Posts: 45
    Pong said:

    Mirror front page not good for Osborne - parking in a disabled bay. https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/319911845773316096/photo/1

    Hilarious!

    Come on George. Time to put on your best fake accent & explain to us plebs how it was actually all your drivers fault.

    Perhaps like Gordon Brown in a TV interview where he can accepted full responsibility and then sacked someonè else for it.
    On a Brownism level of lunacy that reached heights of shear hilarity
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900

    Millsy said:

    Mirror front page not good for Osborne - parking in a disabled bay. https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/319911845773316096/photo/1

    Man of the people. Most of us have done it at some point. My doctors has 3 disabled bays that only seem to be used by people who nip in quickly to drop off a prescription.
    This makes me BLOODY furious. People who do this are assholes.

    I have strong personal interest. My severely disabled elder brother is a Tatton resident and the problems off transportation are massive. To have Osbo doing this is despicable and if you think it is acceptable then you are despicable too
    Yes in this instance the driver appears to have done wrong, although we don't know how long he was there. But nothing to do with Osborne.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Labourpaul: A GCS driver reverses in a disabled drivers' bay, while Osb wasn't in the car. Can't help but feel we've more important stuff to worry about
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Millsy said:

    Millsy said:

    Mirror front page not good for Osborne - parking in a disabled bay. https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/319911845773316096/photo/1

    Man of the people. Most of us have done it at some point. My doctors has 3 disabled bays that only seem to be used by people who nip in quickly to drop off a prescription.
    This makes me BLOODY furious. People who do this are assholes.

    I have strong personal interest. My severely disabled elder brother is a Tatton resident and the problems off transportation are massive. To have Osbo doing this is despicable and if you think it is acceptable then you are despicable too
    Yes in this instance the driver appears to have done wrong, although we don't know how long he was there. But nothing to do with Osborne.
    Unless Osborne said ' Park outside the shop, you pleb, I don't care if it is disabled only, do it!'
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    The Osborne story on the Mirror front page small beer compared to what the Japanese might be doing with their monetary policy. ..All But Scattering Cash From A Truck. Look at The FT front page.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited April 2013
    Not only is the passenger not responsible, nor it seems is the driver, even in serious cases:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/1039256.stm
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Yo
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Labour know what they are doing
  • Ave_it said:

    Yo

    Nice to see Brendan Rodgers doing well at a proper football club.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Ave_it said:

    Yo

    Nice to see Brendan Rodgers doing well at a proper football club.
    LOL Liverpool
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    IOS said:

    Sugar rush Tories and UKIP get the honey.

    Just like the Republicans lost the center by trying to please the tea party.

    Hence, tea party tories. :)

  • mosesmoses Posts: 45
    Scott_P said:

    @Labourpaul: A GCS driver reverses in a disabled drivers' bay, while Osb wasn't in the car. Can't help but feel we've more important stuff to worry about

    Sadly wrong ...BBC already have it up. Prepare for days of debate over parking bays.....

    George Osborne 'unaware' his car was parked in disabled bay
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22035985
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    Poor old GO. His driver parks in a disabled spot! Was any disabled person inconvenienced? At least GO gets out and about. Has rED ventured out of his home this week?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @perdix

    "Has rED ventured out of his home this week? "

    On a train. PM Nailed on.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    Mirror front page not good for Osborne - parking in a disabled bay. https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/319911845773316096/photo/1

    The words you are looking for are, incompetent toxic liability.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Knowsley - St Michaels

    Lab 676 LD 69 Con 44

  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    a witness reportedly told the Mirror: "I couldn't believe my eyes when I saw his driver pull into the disabled parking bay.

    "It's not as if they were in a rush to move. The car park wasn't exactly full and there were plenty of other, ordinary spaces."


    A yes. But Osborne is no ordinary person, as we know.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Knowsley - St Michaels

    Lab 676 LD 69 Con 44

    Con gaining ground in the area!
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    @tim The most despised politician is Gordon Brown.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Mick_Pork said:

    Mirror front page not good for Osborne - parking in a disabled bay. https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/319911845773316096/photo/1

    The words you are looking for are, incompetent toxic liability.
    You are better advised to be looking for fresh acorns than stale words, Pork.

    Real pigs don't eat clichés.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    BBC News reports tens of thousands - I think 40,000 was the number - on benefits have five or more children.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,001
    Perdix - Actually Brown's popularity has improved a little since 2010 (he was applauded at the Olympics) not that it could have gone anywhere else. Actually the most despised politician in Britain Award is shared between George Osborne and Peter Mandelson, whether George can at least join the 'Prince of Darkness' in being seen as at least an efficient operator remains to be seen!
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    AveryLP said:

    You are better advised to be looking for fresh acorns than stale words, Pork.

    You are better advised to go back to your inept spinning for Lansley, Seth O Logue.

    That you have moved on to the incompetent Osbrowne hardly bodes well for you or him.

    Lansley still isn't PM BTW. ;)

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,528
    edited April 2013
    The unusually low German Social Democrat score noted by AndyJS a few days ago contradicted by the latest poll:
    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm

    However, the underlying position is stable - CDU (Merkel) in fine shape, SPD and Greens up, Left down but not out, FDP (Liberals) down and possibly out, Pirates on the rocks, the new anti-Euro party not troubling the scorers, no plausible majority except a grand coalition.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Prescot West
    Lab 441 LD 403 TUSC 86 Con 62 Green 14

    So Knowsley is staying 100% Labour.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    As David Allen Green tweets: "There really are people on my timeline more angry at Osborne for parking in disabled space than at Philpott for killing 6 children. Bizarre."
  • carlcarl Posts: 750

    As David Allen Green tweets: "There really are people on my timeline more angry at Osborne for parking in disabled space than at Philpott for killing 6 children. Bizarre."

    Your twitterer is a crass idiot for making the stupid comparison.
  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    Remember Britain, you're only allowed to be outraged at things the Daily Mail tells you to be outraged about.

    If you are angry about anything else, it just reflects badly on you.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Socrates said:

    BBC News reports tens of thousands - I think 40,000 was the number - on benefits have five or more children.

    I think the critical number politically will be those who have 3+ as it'll be the gap between having 2 and 3 that most other people will resent.

    Just a guess though.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Basic allowances in councils voting today

    Wigan 11,682.00
    Nottingham 10,616.54
    Knowsley 8,825
    NE Lincolnshire 7,500
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    UKIP have gained Humberston and New Waltham
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    dr_spyn said:

    The Osborne story on the Mirror front page small beer compared to what the Japanese might be doing with their monetary policy. ..All But Scattering Cash From A Truck. Look at The FT front page.

    Yes, very surprising and probably very significant but i don't get it at all yet.

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Knowsley - Prescot East
    Lab 515 LD 328 Con 47

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited April 2013
    NE Lincolnshire- Humberston and New Waltham
    Harness (UKIP) 1098, Hall (Cons) 738 votes, Smith (Labour) 470, Stead (Lib Dem) 311
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    'near perfect'
    New Statesman ‏@NewStatesman

    A reminder of why Osborne is vulnerable: disabled families still aren't exempt from the bedroom tax http://bit.ly/13TFQvp
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    UKIP have gained Humberston and New Waltham

    Figures please.

  • RicardohosRicardohos Posts: 258
    Once again Osborne screws up and shows the side of him we have (nearly) all come to loathe. The one that is so up his own rich posterior that he drives his carriage into a disabled space. At a time of benefits cuts it's really remarkable how any one politician can be so inept.

    This will stick with voters rather like the pasty tax did. And to those pb Tories who claim that it doesn't matter, you really don't get it yet, do you?
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    MikeK said:

    UKIP have gained Humberston and New Waltham

    Figures please.
    They aren't always immediately available.
    General Election ‏@UKELECTIONS2015

    http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/2013/04/7-by-election-results.html … UKIP GAIN IN HUMBERSTON AND NEW WALTHAM NORTH EAST LINCOLSHIRE RESULT TO FOLLOW
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    @Mick_Pork
    Thanks for the link.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Some pretty shallow lefty monging going down tonight


    Front page on a driver not a child killer ? Propah journos innit.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    I posted the figures while you were tiping your comment. Look below and you will fine them
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited April 2013
    Nottingham - Woolaton East: Lab 627 LD 368 Con 116 UKIP 75

    Labour won the other Nottingham ward too, as expected. No figures yet
  • RicardohosRicardohos Posts: 258
    It's not shallow TGOHF. The Philpotts have dominated for some days, and it's unusual for sentencing to carry the lead on a separate day to convictions.
    What you don't seem to get, quite apart from the disgrace of doing this, is that it's another prime example of this toff elite. It takes me back to that killer comment that Cameron and Osborne have never known what it's like to have to put something back at the checkout. They are out of touch with the majority of people.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The Leftards are very excited tonight.

    After "man on a boat takes no money" and "man buys a train ticket" finally Osborne will be brought low by "man gets into a car he wasn't driving and didn't park"

    That's it, it's all over.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    UKIP jumps to 2nd place in Pemberton
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Wigan - Pemberton
    Labour 1084 UKIP 451 Community Action 203 Conservative 89 BNP 63
  • RicardohosRicardohos Posts: 258
    Re Scott_P.

    You just don't get it, do you? The Nasty Party.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Pemberton:
    Labour 1084,
    UKIP 451,
    Community Action 203,
    Conservative 89,
    BNP 63
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,528
    edited April 2013
    Pretty big UKIP swing from the Tories there in Lincs, Labour share not much changed. We're currently trying to assess which divisions to target inh the final stages in May and UKIP's intervention make it really hard to guess. We'll know more tomorrow when we see the full candidate lists, but UKIP's effect may produce a lot of odd results.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    If only someone had warned the tea party tories that using the incompetent Osbrowne always backfires.
    Peter Lane ‏@peterlane5news

    We're all in this (parking space) together. #osborne pic.twitter.com/WkyEHq18gQ
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,528
    And a good Pemberton result for them too. Probably best compared to 2010 when there was last a 4-way contest.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Nottingham -Bilborough
    Lab 1542 UKIP 347 Con 176 Green 103 LibDem 96 Elvis 31

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Scott_P said:

    The Leftards are very excited tonight..

    How big was the scottish tory surge again? Cretin.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Ricardohos

    'Once again Osborne screws up and shows the side of him we have (nearly) all come to loathe. The one that is so up his own rich posterior that he drives his carriage into a disabled space.'

    That might be true if he was the driver,he wasn't it was a policeman,but don't let facts get in the way or maybe give Specsavers a go.

    .

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    I posted the figures while you were tiping your comment. Look below and you will fine them

    Apologies Andrea, I should have spotted that too.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    And another UKIP 2nd place in Nottingham -Bilborough, from nothing really. :)
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    David Cameron is confusing me today. If even SOUTH KOREA doesn't need an independent nuclear deterrent to protect itself against North Korea, why on earth would we?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930

    David Cameron is confusing me today. If even SOUTH KOREA doesn't need an independent nuclear deterrent to protect itself against North Korea, why on earth would we?

    Because South Korea is protected by the USA?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    David Cameron is confusing me today. If even SOUTH KOREA doesn't need an independent nuclear deterrent to protect itself against North Korea, why on earth would we?

    Although I cannot stand Cammo and his stupid posturing, I still believe that britain needs a nuclear deterrent. Wars have a nasty habit of, once started, spreading to the most unlikely of places.

  • RicardohosRicardohos Posts: 258
    john_zims said:

    @Ricardohos

    'Once again Osborne screws up and shows the side of him we have (nearly) all come to loathe. The one that is so up his own rich posterior that he drives his carriage into a disabled space.'

    That might be true if he was the driver,he wasn't it was a policeman,but don't let facts get in the way or maybe give Specsavers a go.

    The last time a politician claimed not to be the driver ...

    Mind you, in some ways it's even worse if he claims not to have known. The picture seems to show him getting in. That's the Tory toffs all over. No fecking idea what the rest of us have to do, just some privileged dispensation that the carriage should be awaiting him close to the entrance. He's probably never had to park a car in a normal space in his life. Does he even know what a disabled space is?
    Not that I really believe him. We all know what those yellow lines are, and unless you have your head right up your ass you can see them whether you're the driver or not.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited April 2013
    Congratulations to Nottingham, Knowsley, Wigan and NE Lincolnshire for counting and reporting fast tonight!
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Because South Korea is protected by the USA?"

    Precisely. Rather like the UK, in fact, which as part of NATO is covered by the American nuclear umbrella. But unlike South Korea, of course, we are under absolutely no threat from North Korea. So the relevance of NK to Trident is...?
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited April 2013
    @TGOHF

    Great quote from Mr Harrison

    'In a rant on the site, under his fake name, lamenting how bad London is, the London MP described London as being “full of trash”.

    Don't you just love these Savile Row socialists.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Although I cannot stand Cammo and his stupid posturing, I still believe that britain needs a nuclear deterrent."


    Presumably you agree therefore that Germany, Poland, Bhutan and Algeria also require nuclear deterrents. Where does it end?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    edited April 2013

    "Because South Korea is protected by the USA?"

    Precisely. Rather like the UK, in fact, which as part of NATO is covered by the American nuclear umbrella. But unlike South Korea, of course, we are under absolutely no threat from North Korea. So the relevance of NK to Trident is...?

    Well they have chosen to trust that the USA will always do what is best for them, we get into far more conflicts than South Korea, and can't always trust that the US will be on our side.

    There is no threat presently to the UK. Camerons remarks today were based on statements from Pyongyang that they could strike at the US mainland:
    "The fact is, as I wrote in a newspaper article this morning, North Korea does now have missile technology that is able to reach, as they put it, the whole of the United States and if they’re able to reach the whole of the United States they can reach Europe too. They can reach us too, so that is a real concern.”
    And it is absurd to think North Korea won't continue to develop their long range missile technology, so while it is not relevant now, it may be relevant in the medium to far-term (which is where these decisions should be focused).
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "And it is absurd to think North Korea won't continue to develop their long range missile technology, so while it is not relevant now, it may be relevant in the medium to far-term"

    Yes, well, South Korea are under mortal danger from North Korea this week, let alone in twenty years' time, and they still don't seem to want nuclear weapons of their own. And in all honesty, if you seriously think that the USA would shrug its shoulders at a North Korean attack on the British mainland (WHY would NK do that, by the way?), then I'm slightly baffled as to why we've expended so much blood on keeping up this "special relationship".
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Andrea Jenkyns selected by Morley & Outwood Tories. She's a Lincolnshire county councillor.

    Will Quince won Colchester Con selection. He stood there in 2010 and he's a local borough Cllr
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    MikeK said:

    David Cameron is confusing me today. If even SOUTH KOREA doesn't need an independent nuclear deterrent to protect itself against North Korea, why on earth would we?

    Although I cannot stand Cammo and his stupid posturing, I still believe that britain needs a nuclear deterrent. Wars have a nasty habit of, once started, spreading to the most unlikely of places.
    You are confusing the obliteration of hundreds of thousands of civilians in a nuclear inferno with a conventional war. We are still in Afghanistan and troops are still dying there. Nukes cannot stop conventional wars. Nor is there any conceivable scenario where Nuclear Weapons are used and the U.S. does not get involved.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    edited April 2013

    "And it is absurd to think North Korea won't continue to develop their long range missile technology, so while it is not relevant now, it may be relevant in the medium to far-term"

    Yes, well, South Korea are under mortal danger from North Korea this week, let alone in twenty years' time, and they still don't seem to want nuclear weapons of their own. And in all honesty, if you seriously think that the USA would shrug its shoulders at a North Korean attack on the British mainland (WHY would NK do that, by the way?), then I'm slightly baffled as to why we've expended so much blood on keeping up this "special relationship".

    Because the South probably has an absolute guarantee from the US that they will defend them if such an attack occurred. Given the military presence in South Korea that the US has, an attack on them by the North would probably be considered an attack on the US.

    While we do have an agreement through NATO, assistance is not always guaranteed simply by virtue of membership of the alliance (see the Falklands for example). As the US is heavily involved in the Korean peninsular, of course they would react to an attack by the North on any country in the world, but the same probably couldn't be said for every situation.

    And why would they attack the UK? While I agree the chance is very remote, if they did it would be a good example of the ability for their nuclear weapons to reach across the globe. Of course they would be wiped off the face of the Earth the moment they did that, but that is besides the point. You could imagine a scenario where they are being invaded conventionally, and launch with their backs to the wall. But then the deterrent would have failed in its task. Like I said, the situation is probably extremely remote.


  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    edited April 2013
    "Because the South probably has an absolute guarantee from the US that they will defend them if such an attack occurred"

    Unless you're claiming that the North Atlantic Treaty isn't worth the paper it's written on, the UK has an identical guarantee. An attack on the UK, or on Spain, or on Belgium, is an attack on the United States.

    "You could imagine a scenario where they are being invaded conventionally, and launch with their backs to the wall"

    Well, for the sake of all concerned we'll just have to hope they randomly pick as their victims one of the five countries who just happen to be permitted by international law to possess nuclear weapons. Poor old Belgium, eh?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930

    "Because the South probably has an absolute guarantee from the US that they will defend them if such an attack occurred"

    Unless you're claiming that the North Atlantic Treaty isn't worth the paper it's written on, the UK has an identical guarantee. An attack on the UK, or on Spain, or on Belgium, is an attack on the United States.

    "You could imagine a scenario where they are being invaded conventionally, and launch with their backs to the wall"

    Well, for the sake of all concerned we'll just have to hope they randomly pick as their victims one of the five countries who just happen to be permitted by international law to possess nuclear weapons. Poor old Belgium, eh?

    Treaties can easily be broken or annulled. See the Act of Union 1707 for example.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    RobD said:

    And why would they attack the UK? While I agree the chance is very remote, if they did it would be a good example of the ability for their nuclear weapons to reach across the globe.

    Sort of like 45 minutes from using WMD? Not a great idea to try using that argument any more after Blair and Iraq. Nobody will ever believe it again.


    image

    image

    Yes, that was the Mail and the Sun, unsurprisingly enough. Might explain why the public trust them so little.
    RobD said:

    Of course they would be wiped off the face of the Earth the moment they did that, but that is besides the point. You could imagine a scenario where they are being invaded conventionally, and launch with their backs to the wall

    You just admitted that the threat of nuclear annihilation would not deter them. So again, what possible benefit is there for Trident?

  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Treaties can easily be broken or annulled. See the Act of Union 1707 for example."


    Let's hope so. The surest way to ensure that Scotland is safe from even the slightest threat of being targeted by a North Korean nuclear missile in 2043 is to walk away from both the Treaty of Union and the North Atlantic Treaty.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    edited April 2013
    Mick_Pork said:

    RobD said:

    And why would they attack the UK? While I agree the chance is very remote, if they did it would be a good example of the ability for their nuclear weapons to reach across the globe.

    Sort of like 45 minutes from using WMD? Not a great idea to try using that argument any more after Blair and Iraq. Nobody will ever believe it again.

    [Newspaper images removed]

    Yes, that was the Mail and the Sun, unsurprisingly enough. Might explain why the public trust them so little.
    RobD said:

    Of course they would be wiped off the face of the Earth the moment they did that, but that is besides the point. You could imagine a scenario where they are being invaded conventionally, and launch with their backs to the wall

    You just admitted that the threat of nuclear annihilation would not deter them. So again, what possible benefit is there for Trident?

    The 45 minute claim really won't help next time there actually IS an imminent threat! Oh well, thanks Blair and co.

    The benefit of Trident would be to defend ourselves against adherents of M.A.D., clearly.

  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "The benefit of Trident would be to defend ourselves against adherents of M.A.D., clearly."

    To believe in Trident is to believe in M.A.D. There is no such thing as nuclear "defence".
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930

    "The benefit of Trident would be to defend ourselves against adherents of M.A.D., clearly."

    To believe in Trident is to believe in M.A.D. There is no such thing as nuclear "defence".

    What was that line from Wargames, "The only winning move is not to play".
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    RobD said:

    The benefit of Trident would be to defend ourselves against adherents of M.A.D., clearly.

    Clearly it can't. Trident is an offensive weapon of mass destruction. It is not a missile defence system. If the imperative is defence against a theoretical nuclear strike then there is at least some logic in switching from the billions Trident costs to a missile defence based system. But even that cannot possibly guarantee safety from a rogue state who would ignore the M.A.D. doctrine. M.A.D. is theoretically adhered to by those military superpowers who could wipe out every country on the planet with their colossal arsenal so it is academic (to say the least) if it is ever tested.

  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    surely the point of British nuclear weapons is one-up man ship with the French

    (there is no point in having British Nuclear weapons)
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Germany, France, UK, four trident subs each as insurance against european wars,

    plus that's one less excuse for the corrupt monster-state. Job done.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    http://crashbangwallace.com/2013/04/03/philpott-case-dont-ignore-the-criminal-justice-systems-responsibility/

    "In 1978, Philpott’s fiancée dumped him. In response, he broke into her house at night and stabbed her 27 times, slitting open her stomach and telling her: “If I can’t have you, no one will”. He then turned the knife on her mother and left the two of them for dead.

    He was caught and convicted – and sentenced to seven years in jail."
This discussion has been closed.