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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Looking at Leigh in Gtr Manchester – the seat which Paul Nuttall is planning to contest in the likely by-election
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Comments
Wow what a start to the week. A lot better than the England cricket team that is for sure.
The problem is that UKIP itself is decreasingly credible, and there is no other obvious challenger; so it will all depend on what pull the personality of Nuttall might have. Leigh is extremely solid Labour and Nuttall is from Merseyside, so my instinct is that he'll be nowhere near.
Edit/ although actually, if Nuttall doesn't perform or doesn't stand, up to half that UKIP vote could be going begging?
I'm bored stiff of the standard fodder and he's introduced an alternative angle.
It seems odd that UKIP do not have a single councillor in an area that voted 2-1 leave. It is the sort of statistic that those who big up UKIP's chances of replacing a decrepit Labour party in the north might want to reflect on.
Would Burnham dare to take the Chiltern Hundreds before he is actually elected in Manchester, leaving him unemployed if he loses the mayoral election?
As for Ronnie Scott's, I was already looking forward to my visit next March to see the great John McLaughlin and now expect to enjoy it even more.
My admittedly very limited knowledge of the area leads me to believe there is no way on God's earth that Mr. Nuttall, with or without a free hand outs of mintoes has a snowflake's chance of winning and I don't suppose he'd want to sully his reputation by being seen as a loser so early in his term as leader - I'd leave well alone Paul if I were you.
Burnham is capable of losing almost anything but this Mayoral election is going to be a stretch even for him.
Snort.
It's not "Leavers", it's me. It was my weekend, my evening, my money and I was outright insulted in a club I love and made to feel totally unwelcome. That hurt.
I don't know why you insist on bracketing everyone together as a group every time someone who didn't vote the way you did makes a point.
Probably because it makes it easier for you to be ruder.
Last Betfair prices
Fillon 1.82 (54.9% chance of winning)
Sounds about right, as the clear favorite but with more than four months before the first round. Still a pretty good medium-term bet
Le Pen 4.8 (20.8% chance)
The only reason for the price is that many punters do not believe polls regarding a populist like Le Pen. No poll has her less than 30 points behind Fillon or less than 20 points behind Macron. Her only hope is to face a socialist on the second roundbut it seems unlikely.
No value at this price.
Macron 6.9 (14.9% chance)
Compared to Le Pen he has a more straightforward path to victory: face her in the second round. For that he still needs to finish in front of Fillon in the first round and it will be tough if a centrist (Valls or Fillon) emerges from the socialist primary.
Lots of variability but strong resistance around 7.
After his big public meeting last Saturday the next polls will show if he can put more pressure on Fillon (the meeting iself was a success but he was widely mocked for his over-the-top screams at the end of his speech http://www.francetvinfo.fr/elections/presidentielle/video-presidentielle-quand-emmanuel-macron-hurle-a-pleins-poumons-dans-son-micro_1963157.html ).
Valls 23 (4.3% chance)
Valls had a rough first week of campaigning, with most other primary candidates attacking him, weak poll numbers and Peillon joining the contest as a candidate of the "centrist" wing of the socialists.
After collapsing last week, the price has risen again to a more realistic level. Could be worth it a bit later during the primary.
Montebourg 37 (2.7%)
His poll numbers were stable: good for the primary (49% in a second round), terrible for the election. His price has logically converged a bit with Valls but it's hard to see value as long as he polls in fifth or sixth place for the general election. His first round numbers in the primary will pribably be helped marginally by Lienemann going out of the race last Saturday. She is from the left of the party and had 5% in last week's Harris poll.
Peillon 375 (0.3% chance)
The big unknown. He officially announced his candidacy yesterday night. He has never appeared in a poll, thus his potential is unknown. His strength is that he was out of the public eye in the last three years but he also appears to improvise a campaign on the go following Hollande's decision not to run. At this price I took a small chance.
Same thing for Hamon, 825 (0.1% chance). In an unpredictable primary the (distant) third man could win it. I got him at 1000.
I think your complaint on this occasion strays beyond absurd and into padded cell territory. You can have your views on the EU. You can't complain when others have different views and express them.
A Southern, Jezza Metro with a Remain philosophy would be problematic. I suspect Labour will be too canny to make that mistake.
Would you write an article in a magazine sent to customers saying all Tories are idiots? I wouldn't because it might be bad for business.
Personally i'd be a little irritated because I go to Ronnie Scott's to escape from work and politics, but it's not the end of the world. Just turn over and ignore it (it wouldn't stop me going)
It was not classy at all by Ronnie Scotts. But neither side has shown much class at times.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-single-market-andy-burnham-labour-north-england-industry-uk-eu-a7466181.html?amp
I think that as well as tactically outflanking the kippers by backing Hard Brexit, it is also picking the winning side, because Hard Brexit is the destination.
Staying in the Single Market to follow rules writtten by others, and paying for the privilege, is not going to be acceptable to either the British Electorate or to the EU27. Hard Brexit is the default outcome, and what the British public expect.
I'm actually surprised to find relatively normal people go there, yet alone regularly!
Then again, I was much more into rave than Jazz.
The Limerick was terrible, doesn't scan at all. Perhaps it is a free jazz limerick.
I wonder if you and some other Remainers are suffering from a touch of Ukip-ophobia? An irrational fear of anything anti-Europe. Perhaps a better description is Anti-European federalism, but that's a bit long. The usual treatment is to introduce the things you fear a little at a time. There have been some promising results and it looks as if it's likely to occur naturally in the coming months.
And as fears of a united European recede, we'll automatically have the opposite treatment for extreme Kipperism.
I forecast a happier, more united UK in a year or two.
Whose poem did make Leavers blub,
Through eyes full of tears,
It confirmed all their fears,
So they trooped out to go to the pub.
(Weatherspoons of course!)
;-)
I don't demand 'safe spaces' anywhere. What I don't expect is to be outright insulted as a regular customer of one of my favourite venues by its managing director. In this, the tone of how you say something is as important as what you say. But you think no crime is too great so long as directed at a Leaver, which you view as a sign of personal moral turpitude, excusing anything.
I have now tested to destruction the idea that at heart you might be a reasonable man. You are in fact rather nasty and bitter, and extremely rude, and you are not worth anymore of my time.
If ever you happen to be at a pb.com meet-up, don't bother even trying to talk to me.
On journalism, who knows. It's just be nice if each side could show each other a bit more respect. But many on each side aren't even bothering to listen to each other and, worse, don't care.
We all have to live together, after all.
And for those who read the limerick, toe-straighteners can be bought on eBay for 4.99.....
"So they trooped out to go to the pub."
Very good. But it would have to be a proper pub, not one with wall to wall tv and loud music.
Mr Royale, it's London, they're all weird down there.
It's not good for regular discourse.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/12/age-outrage
Apologies if it has already been posted, but it bears rereading. Especially worth it for the joke at the end.
You chose to be offended, to post about your hurt feelings on a political discussion forum and then to insult anyone who took a different position to you on this most trivial of issues.
I'd say you have a bit of a problem.
http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUKKBN1400UA
I am gratuitously insulted.
You are a special snowflake.
He needs a safe space.
We are waycist.
You are bigots.
They are homophobes.
Just look at the vitriol on this thread. As more businesses explain to their customers the impact of Brexit, there will be more unhappiness from the snowflakes.
When the time comes, the Chinese mainland will launch a series of "decisive new policies toward Taiwan", the paper said.
For longer standing PBers - it's well known that we don't have any time for each other.
or, as yr man says "Nice"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=saN1BwlxJxA
and, even in Black and white, a colourful suit!
With a magazine that sought to offend
A leaver cried with salt tears
This is sum of my fears
A brexit safe space would be a godsend
(try Hartlepool shouted the crowd)
Yet the e-heads would be there from ten until kick-out time at six or eight, dancing nearly continuously. Or so it seemed.
Some friends called me the 'straight' one; not because I was heterosexual, but because I didn't do drugs. Drugs, and especially e, were that much part of the fabric amongst the hardcore ravers.
It all feels like a different life now.
Presumably in surface-to-air missile batteries...
http://ohrh.law.ox.ac.uk/brexit-foundational-constitutional-and-interpretive-principles-ii/
I would suggest that it creates a situation where a second referendum is almost inevitable, otherwise Parliament will be the one taking the decision to remain. The other interpretation of this is that Brexit will be delayed until after the 2020 election, and it will be fought on the line of carrying through Leaving or unilateral withdrawal of notification.
Surely you must like at least some opera? What about the British classic "Just one Cornetto"?
Soho is the antithethis of Brexit. The most cosmopolitan place in the UK. If Ronnie was still alive he'd be delighted if Sean's tweets kept out the Brexiteers. He'd have loathed them and It would have given him some new material for his intros
Mr. Roger, that just betrays the fellow's ignorance of the North and his lack of humour.
It's Filey that closes at weekends, not Grimsby.