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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Day 3 of the Supreme Court hearing opens with the Government’s Betfair chances down to lowest level yet
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Currently, SoftBank owns 3.3bn shares of sprint, worth around $20bn.
So, he's using $20bn of collateral to make the trade.
There's a big but though.
Sprint itself is very, very highly levered. It has $31bn of debt on its balance sheet, and free cash flow of -$247m. If Sprint works out, he'll do very well. But if US mobile phone prices were to come down towards European levels, then Sprint (the fourth largest US mobile phone company) could find itself in real trouble, real quick.
I like his chtuzpah: take one asset that's a bit troubled, and borrow $50bn against it, to invest in a whole bunch of other things. If it doesn't work out, walk away from the whole lot, and lose a maximum of $20bn. (And he hasn't really lost that, as he couldn't really sell Sprint for that money today.) But if Sprint works, or if some of these investments pay off, you could be looking at $100bn of upside.
As I said "heads he wins, tails the banks lose".
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36371700
My mother voted for Remain, but is bloody sick of the dilly-dallying.
Alonso will be pleased
It must be based on the rule of law.
Otherwise we're headed for anarchy.
I think concerns are more about oligarchy than anarchy. Can't have the pesky unwashed masses getting their way without lawyers sticking their oar in, can we?
How terribly helpful that the referendum was made advisory rather than binding, a choice that only harms one potential result.
[I'm being a bit tongue in cheek as I'm procrastinating. But I do think most people will just be annoyed, or angered].
http://www.economist.com/news/business/21678237-masayoshi-son-has-always-bounced-back-setbacks-his-latest-big-moves-are-raising
But the political outcome will be decided by the masses......and as YouGov showed, they believe it's down to the government, not the courts, so I hope the potential victors aren't expecting much thanks for their efforts.....
Where do I nominate Gina Miller for a gong?
The lack of the mass march was a reference to your comment of 'But I do think most people will just be annoyed, or angered'
No Labour MPs on PMQs list. Party source: "It's a sign of their strong support and respect for Emily Thornberry" (Corbyn's stand-in)
@GoodwinMJ A useful stat to keep in the mind today - 401 of 632 constituencies voted to leave the EU, or 63%. Data via @chrishanretty
https://www.aim.org/don-irvine-blog/the-new-white-house-press-order/
The first $1bn he borrows will be very cheap (say 2%) - because there is 20x the collateral behind it. Sprint would actually have to go bust, and the investments be worthless, for the bank not to get their money back.
The next $10bn will be reasonably cheap (5-7%), because the coverage of assets will be c 3x ($20bn Sprint + $10bn investments).
The next $20bn would be at mezzanine debt pricing. (Say 10-15%)
And the remaining $19bn would only ever get called if the first $31bn of investments were doing really well.
Liz Truss and her tribute to The Day Today
https://twitter.com/Sean__Clare/status/806132017242972161
"Here is the classic case, the Second Amendment Incident. The thing to be aware of is that his words are carefully chosen. They go by quickly when people hear them. But they are processed unconsciously first by neural circuitry — and neurons operate on a thousandth-of-a-second time scale. Your neural circuitry has plenty of time to engage in complex forms of understanding, based on what you already know.
Trump begins by saying, “Hillary wants to abolish, essentially abolish the Second Amendment.” He first just says “abolish,” and then hedges by adding “essentially abolish.” But having said “abolish” twice, he has gotten across the message that she wants to, and is able to, change the Constitution in that way."
https://georgelakoff.com/2016/08/19/understanding-trumps-use-of-language/
Before anyone get carried away.....Look! See! I told you!
After all, compare the following outcomes:
THE WAY THINGS ARE:
- The case is taken to Court before Government tries to invoke A50. The High Court checks constitutional law and affirms that the constitutional requirements for the UK are that Parliament makes the official decision to withdraw. The Supreme Court either uphold or reject this. If they reject it, no delay, no issue. If they uphold it, TMay has three-and-a-half months to get a short Bill through Parliament whilst holding an absolute majority in the Commons and the moral backing of a referendum. It either passes easily or MPs block it; if they block it, she has plenty of routes to dissolving Parliament (even with the FTPA) in plenty of time to let the people kick out the blockers. No delay.
IN A WORLD WHERE THE REMAINERS PLAY CUNNING:
- They wait for after March, and maybe into next year. Or even 18 months into negotiations and then bring the case.
The law is the same, and the outcome is revealed similarly. It is found that this Member State has not followed the first provision of Article 50: "1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements."
A case is brought to the ECJ to block Brexit on account of Article 50 not having been lawfully invoked. The exit process is halted while the court finds - and given the law, it looks pretty clear.
We're now deep into 2019 or even 2020. Article 50 has not been officially invoked and everything is a clusterfuck. Given the fallout and chaos, the chance of actually halting Brexit completely would be orders of magnitude greater.
This is a great example of partial stat reporting by partisans.
http://nypost.com/2016/12/05/report-buried-trump-related-hate-crimes-against-white-kids/
Meanwhile the Labour party votes through the PM's amendment to invoke art 50 by end of March....
Britain should hold “super Thursday” votes once every four years to elect every councillor in the country, a Conservative MP has declared.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/news/81501/tory-mp-calls-annual-super-thursday-elect
One Celtic fan was also arrested for throwing a hamburger at a police horse.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4008404/There-t-remember-Paedophile-former-Celtic-coach-71-admits-waging-20-year-campaign-sexual-abuse-against-young-players-cleanse-soul.html
Beyond stupid. Talk about denigrating your audience. He's one of the reasons I stopped my subscription.
Not to mention it being rude.
Note to Breitbart: Earth Is Not Cooling, Climate Change Is Real and Please Stop Using Our Video to Mislead Americans
An English hymn commonly associated with harvest festival. The hymn was originally German, by poet Matthias Claudius, "Wir pflügen und wir streuen" published in 1782, and set to music in 1800, and attributed to Johann A. P. Schulz.
It was translated into English by Jane Montgomery Campbell in 1861. It appears in a shortened form in the musical Godspell, as the song, "All Good Gifts".
It is amongst the most performed of hymns in the United Kingdom.
Totally weird and rude clever dickhead behaviour by him. I've unfollowed so many journalists on Twitter recently, I look at their childish playground output and see nothing worth reading. It's embarrassing stuff.
The whole profession is obsessed with trivia, gossip and innuendo. There's no news.
Guido has more scoops and doesn't pretend to be high faluting.
It'd be like someone asking me if my books were on Kobo (Kingdom Asunder is) and mocking them for not searching instead of pointing them to a link.
In Zhuge Liang's writings, he said (speaking of Arrogance in Generals) - Generals should not be arrogant, for if they are arrogant they become discourteous, and if they are discourteous people will be alienated from them. When people are alienated, they become rebellious.
[Also fits the Cameronian Little Englander campaign rather nicely].
Mr. Perdix, sounds to me like there should be nominations for the 2017 Space Cannon list.
I do not get the anger Leavers have over it. Total delay incurred = 0 months, 0 weeks, 0 days, 0 hours.
EDIT: Oh, and given that one way around the chaos if the second route were to be followed would be for the ECJ to decree that A50 was revocable (and thus salvage the constitutional legitimacy)... do Leaver's really want to hand a reverse gear to the Remainers?
MCC recommends red cards be introduced into laws of cricket
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/dec/07/mcc-recommend-red-cards-sending-off-laws-of-cricket
http://timesonline.typepad.com/dons_life/2016/12/the-fall-of-the-roman-empire-on-twitter.html
Arron Banks = Morris Dancer
@faisalislam: ... this followed Pannick arguing that elements of the COmmunications Act and thousands of other statute "make no sense" after we leave EU
So I would do it the other way round - elect parliament in thirds. That way you'd actually have a Government that governed properly rather than doing all the difficult stuff the year after the election and turning into Santa the year before, and would be far more responsive to changes in mood.
You'd also have better campaigning, as activists would only have to fight 1/3 of seats at once, so would be able to work properly in a greater spread of seats than they can at the moment.
Yesterday Faisal Islam observed on twitter that: "The Justices interventions with Pannick have, so far, been far more confirmatory "Does this mean xyz? Yes" than with Eadie."
That is not good for the respondents. Engaged judges challenge and pull at arguments. They don't just seek to establish what the arguments are.
http://order-order.com/2016/12/07/leaked-emails-show-greens-plotting-libdem-electoral-pact/
Ian Ward and Mike Atherton reckoned in modern times Botham would have score 300 instead of 149 and Gooch 500
Is Guido low faluting?
I believe that this will lead to increasing anger with the out of touch left elite and those threatening to stop Brexit.
I expect to see many remainers siding with leavers as an injustice is perceived to be happening. You can throw as much common law as you like at trying to subvert the will of the people but it will only increase the reasons why Brexit happened, as well as Trump and this week Italy.
Remainers are playing with fire.
I get better faster news using Twitter and defaulting to the USA trending topics 9/10 days.
Mr. P, I'm sure lawyers and judges meddling in Parliament's business [by discussing what legislation may be needed] will go down swimmingly with the country.
The Sky News saturation coverage remains bloody tedious.
https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/806454206303469568
May will now have to do that unwillingly and will be weakened as a result.
Its a shame.