Yes it is completely logical that voters in Sleaford should vote Conservative as the party that is actually delivering the break with Europe that they voted for.
I just wonder if logic comes into this kind of contest.
If they wanted to show that they were still angry then voting UKIP might feel better. And while Sleaford isn't Richmond, even there there will be a number of people who normally vote Tory who want to protest against Brexit by voting Lib Dem. There might not be many, but even a couple of thousand might be enough to bring the winning post into UKIP's range.
Has UKIP been active in the constituency? I would have thought a "Don't let Mrs May go backwards on Brexit. Vote UKIP to make sure she delivers" message would be very effective.
I don't know how UKIP would be able to deliver such a message given the state of their organisation, but yes I think it would be effective. But just sounding a bit cross and letting voters decide what they are angry about might be even better.
Championed from the beginning by Britain's right wing nationalist political party, which supplanted the BNP and National Front. And by politicians regarded as on the extreme right wing of the Conservative party. Opposed by moderate conservatives, the greens, liberal democrats, SNP, PC, and almost all Labour politicians from moderate through soft left. What part of the obvious are you missing?
But, supported by most Conservatives, and 35% of Labour voters, and two thirds of constituencies.
I don't claim to be an expert but is Austrian bloke really far right? I've heard he's very hostile to Islam but is he really on the Le Pen/Gilders scale let alone Hitler?
Have any actual votes been counted yet in Austria? When I think of concessions, Bob Marshall-Andrews in Medway in 2005 comes to mind. He conceded the election, only to be elected a few hours later.
I don't claim to be an expert but is Austrian bloke really far right? I've heard he's very hostile to Islam but is he really on the Le Pen/Gilders scale let alone Hitler?
According to the ultra left wing media he is!
Anyone to the right of Fidel Castro (God rest him!) is far right!!!!!
Have any actual votes been counted yet in Austria? When I think of concessions, Bob Marshall-Andrews in Medway in 2005 comes to mind. He conceded the election, only to be elected a few hours later.
Incidentally I am now of the view that Fillon at 1.68 (59% chance) is good value, clear water above the ~1.4 (71%) which I think is fair value. Macron (9/1) is a tad short, having failed to get the right opponent either to the right or to the left - 12/1 (7.5%) would be fair. Le Pen (7/2) is far too short, should be 6/1 (14%). Valls at 5% (19/1) and Montebourg at 2% (49/1) are not far off.
Oooh good spot on the Macron. I've been of the view that 12-1 is about right, so I think shall take a few profits.
And, yes, Le Pen is absurdly short for someone who's more than 2:1 down in the second round polls against her nearest challenger.
It was suggested above that, since the two front runners at Sleaford in 2015 were the Tories and UKIP, the Lib Dem vote could be squeezed.
The difficulty with this idea is that Mrs May has now adopted the UKIP platform, lock, stock and barrel. These two parties are now indistinguishable. There is small choice in rotten apples.
Before the Lib Dems became tarnished because of their association with the Conservatives in the Coalition Government, the Lib Dems came second in this constituency. Following Richmond, I would expect them to come at least second this time. There is currently quite a lot of good will towards the Lib Dems.
Libs have grown share in every election since 2015 GE. So, they will get a few points of least. Labour will lost a few points. UKIP is tough to know. Clearly the Tory MP resigning is taking the piss. Therefore, I think turnout will be low. But I don't think UKIP will get any momentum.
Tories, 1st, Libs 2nd, UKIP, 3rd, Lab, 4th. Success will depend on who gains shares. Libs will. The rest...who knows. (I'm often wrong).
I would be very surprised if the Libs made it to second. I guess it's possible in a low turnout vote, where they are the only Remain option, but my money would be on them creeping back above 10% (but still seeing their absolute number of votes fall).
I just wonder if logic comes into this kind of contest.
If they wanted to show that they were still angry then voting UKIP might feel better. And while Sleaford isn't Richmond, even there there will be a number of people who normally vote Tory who want to protest against Brexit by voting Lib Dem. There might not be many, but even a couple of thousand might be enough to bring the winning post into UKIP's range.
What we know is that Governments tend to do worse in a by-election than the opposition. Theoretically, all opposition parties should gain share. Libs are best placed. The other two are not organised or not united. If you are looking for value, the Libs 2nd, Labour 4th might be it. Of course, it might not be!
How awkward will it be when Trump is inaugurated and the former presidents and their spouses come out......
There are not many ex-Presidents alive.
Carter: no public statements on the election due to ill health, an appearance may be unlikely.
Bush H.W.: Hates Trump for what he did to W. and Jeb, although he bowed to Trump after his victory.
Clinton: Best friends with Trump until the election, they probably shared a few supermodels, relationship certainly frosty and complicated from the campaign, will Hillary make an appearance ?
Bush W.: Hates Trump because he accused him of being behind 9/11 and invading Iraq for the oil, and for what he did to Jeb, but he too has bowed to Trump after his victory.
Obama: Buried the hatchet of war, he wants to stay close to Trump to influence him politically.
How can trump complain about W. Bush going to war with Iraq for oil. when 1) he supported it untill it was unpopular and 2) siad he would have taken iraqs oil if he had invaded. Strange man.
I don't claim to be an expert but is Austrian bloke really far right? I've heard he's very hostile to Islam but is he really on the Le Pen/Gilders scale let alone Hitler?
According to the ultra left wing media he is!
Anyone to the right of Fidel Castro (God rest him!) is far right!!!!!
I don't claim to be an expert but is Austrian bloke really far right? I've heard he's very hostile to Islam but is he really on the Le Pen/Gilders scale let alone Hitler?
According to the ultra left wing media he is!
you will recall that the mild mannered Austrian called Adolf was a socialist. And the media portrayed him as right wing...weirdly.
Have any actual votes been counted yet in Austria? When I think of concessions, Bob Marshall-Andrews in Medway in 2005 comes to mind. He conceded the election, only to be elected a few hours later.
Yes - it's at least 80% counted if not more.
Europe Elects @EuropeElects 2h2 hours ago Austria: Rural areas voted for ring-wing Norbert #Hofer, cities and towns voted for green candidate #vanderBellen. #bpw16 #Sobotka
I don't claim to be an expert but is Austrian bloke really far right? I've heard he's very hostile to Islam but is he really on the Le Pen/Gilders scale let alone Hitler?
Brillo, that scion of the ultra left wing media, seems to think so.
I don't claim to be an expert but is Austrian bloke really far right? I've heard he's very hostile to Islam but is he really on the Le Pen/Gilders scale let alone Hitler?
According to the ultra left wing media he is!
Anyone to the right of Fidel Castro (God rest him!) is far right!!!!!
indeed. Alt-right as my keyboard tells me!
On mine, alt-numerical right gives the ace of spades: ♠.
Football betting: Chelsea has incredibly easy December ahead of them, playing West Brom, Bournemouth and Stoke at Home, and Sunderland and Palace away. January and the start of February sees this completely reverse, with games at Tottenham, Leicester and Liverpool and a tricky home draw against Arsenal.
they need to work out turnout for Undecideds, I doubt there is much switching between the choices/parties in these very divisive elections apart from the UK general election 2015 and even there many did not switch between Labour and tory in last few days.
I'm all for being difficult with pollsters when they cock it up - but this is unfair. The result is 3% from each.
But they are all wrong in the same direction, which is a problem.
Slightly. Whilst sampling error should give rise to a distribution of error, action taken to avoid it will always lead to a systemic bias.
There is clearly a systematic bias present at the moment.
But this one was a bias against the more mainstream candidate!
Oh right, by all I mean all of the Austrian polls. But you are right the error did seem to be in the opposite direction this time, perhaps an overcompensation?
Have any actual votes been counted yet in Austria? When I think of concessions, Bob Marshall-Andrews in Medway in 2005 comes to mind. He conceded the election, only to be elected a few hours later.
Yes - it's at least 80% counted if not more.
Europe Elects @EuropeElects 2h2 hours ago Austria: Rural areas voted for ring-wing Norbert #Hofer, cities and towns voted for green candidate #vanderBellen. #bpw16 #Sobotka
I am not hugely surprised about the Austrian result. Has a bit of the Winchester by election feel about it: people don't really like to have to vote again after a result has been arrived at (whatever the ins-and-outs) - it seems to galvanise them to turn out re-deliver the first result more convincingly.
Football betting: Chelsea has incredibly easy December ahead of them, playing West Brom, Bournemouth and Stoke at Home, and Sunderland and Palace away. January and the start of February sees this completely reverse, with games at Tottenham, Leicester and Liverpool and a tricky home draw against Arsenal.
Buy Chelsea now, and sell down around Xmas time.
Chelsea to win the League? surely very likely. Klopp is picking up injuries from his style of play, all the others are bogged down in Europe, Chelsea are flying and in Kante they have an exceptional midfielder.
I don't claim to be an expert but is Austrian bloke really far right? I've heard he's very hostile to Islam but is he really on the Le Pen/Gilders scale let alone Hitler?
Brillo, that scion of the ultra left wing media, seems to think so.
Yes it is completely logical that voters in Sleaford should vote Conservative as the party that is actually delivering the break with Europe that they voted for.
I just wonder if logic comes into this kind of contest.
If they wanted to show that they were still angry then voting UKIP might feel better. And while Sleaford isn't Richmond, even there there will be a number of people who normally vote Tory who want to protest against Brexit by voting Lib Dem. There might not be many, but even a couple of thousand might be enough to bring the winning post into UKIP's range.
Has UKIP been active in the constituency? I would have thought a "Don't let Mrs May go backwards on Brexit. Vote UKIP to make sure she delivers" message would be very effective.
UKIP have no money to mount a big campaign in Sleaford and few activists prepared to put in the hard work .
Thanks for this link. If I knew Italian I'd look for links between Beppe Grillo, Laura Olivetti, and the followers of Rudolf Steiner. The Steinerite bank Triodos is rarely far away whenever wind farms are concerned. (Might be some interesting stuff here.)
It was suggested above that, since the two front runners at Sleaford in 2015 were the Tories and UKIP, the Lib Dem vote could be squeezed.
The difficulty with this idea is that Mrs May has now adopted the UKIP platform, lock, stock and barrel. These two parties are now indistinguishable. There is small choice in rotten apples.
Before the Lib Dems became tarnished because of their association with the Conservatives in the Coalition Government, the Lib Dems came second in this constituency. Following Richmond, I would expect them to come at least second this time. There is currently quite a lot of good will towards the Lib Dems.
Libs have grown share in every election since 2015 GE. So, they will get a few points of least. Labour will lost a few points. UKIP is tough to know. Clearly the Tory MP resigning is taking the piss. Therefore, I think turnout will be low. But I don't think UKIP will get any momentum.
Tories, 1st, Libs 2nd, UKIP, 3rd, Lab, 4th. Success will depend on who gains shares. Libs will. The rest...who knows. (I'm often wrong).
I would be very surprised if the Libs made it to second. I guess it's possible in a low turnout vote, where they are the only Remain option, but my money would be on them creeping back above 10% (but still seeing their absolute number of votes fall).
If Sleaford was Remain and the LibDems were in UKIPs shoes they would do very well, but it's 62% Leave and UKIP are on 16%, with LibDems under 6%. It's a mirror image of Richmond Park, UKIP should be in contention and the LibDems should be squeezed
Except I suspect that - even with Richmond Park on - the LDs will have had a more active campaign in Sleaford than UKIP.
Farron tweeted from there today. He just loves the grind of campaigning, which is why the activists like him so much. He is one of them.
I don't claim to be an expert but is Austrian bloke really far right? I've heard he's very hostile to Islam but is he really on the Le Pen/Gilders scale let alone Hitler?
According to the ultra left wing media he is!
Anyone to the right of Fidel Castro (God rest him!) is far right!!!!!
indeed. Alt-right as my keyboard tells me!
On mine, alt-numerical right gives the ace of spades: ♠.
Ironically for that 0 AceOfSpades is an excellent right of centre blog. The chess column is really good, as is the Gun of the Week thread. http://ace.mu.nu/
It was suggested above that, since the two front runners at Sleaford in 2015 were the Tories and UKIP, the Lib Dem vote could be squeezed.
The difficulty with this idea is that Mrs May has now adopted the UKIP platform, lock, stock and barrel. These two parties are now indistinguishable. There is small choice in rotten apples.
Before the Lib Dems became tarnished because of their association with the Conservatives in the Coalition Government, the Lib Dems came second in this constituency. Following Richmond, I would expect them to come at least second this time. There is currently quite a lot of good will towards the Lib Dems.
Libs have grown share in every election since 2015 GE. So, they will get a few points of least. Labour will lost a few points. UKIP is tough to know. Clearly the Tory MP resigning is taking the piss. Therefore, I think turnout will be low. But I don't think UKIP will get any momentum.
Tories, 1st, Libs 2nd, UKIP, 3rd, Lab, 4th. Success will depend on who gains shares. Libs will. The rest...who knows. (I'm often wrong).
I would be very surprised if the Libs made it to second. I guess it's possible in a low turnout vote, where they are the only Remain option, but my money would be on them creeping back above 10% (but still seeing their absolute number of votes fall).
If Sleaford was Remain and the LibDems were in UKIPs shoes they would do very well, but it's 62% Leave and UKIP are on 16%, with LibDems under 6%. It's a mirror image of Richmond Park, UKIP should be in contention and the LibDems should be squeezed
Except I suspect that - even with Richmond Park on - the LDs will have had a more active campaign in Sleaford than UKIP.
Farron tweeted from there today. He just loves the grind of campaigning, which is why the activists like him so much. He is one of them.
Comments
And, yes, Le Pen is absurdly short for someone who's more than 2:1 down in the second round polls against her nearest challenger.
Austria: Rural areas voted for ring-wing Norbert #Hofer, cities and towns voted for green candidate #vanderBellen. #bpw16 #Sobotka
Sounds familiar!!
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/805448551727845376
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/805473651407601665
Buy Chelsea now, and sell down around Xmas time.
So was Sheffield
NEW THREAD
I wouldn't sell at Christmas.
The chess column is really good, as is the Gun of the Week thread.
http://ace.mu.nu/