Why do we need opinion polls if they never get either the result or the winner correct ?
Anecdotal evidence and turnout are much more accurate than opinion polls, and much cheaper.
Bugger all anecdotes about potential Green win in Austria as I recall.
Not really, the anecdotes where that the Greens where moving their campaign to the countryside to outflank the FPD with full campaign support from the government on every level, that they have a new Chancellor who is more popular than the last one also helped.
The turnout figures where the death knell.
Anyway the FPD will not form the next government in Austria regardless how they do in the parliamentary elections, the new President will refuse to swear them in.
Who or what is keeping the troubled Italian banks in business?
The ECB, mostly.
Also, the fact is that the numbers are all really small. The total bill for bailing out the Italian banks is somewhere between E25bn (if you believe the Italian government) and E40bn (if you look at some people who are rather more sceptical). These are tiny numbers by the standards of bank bail-outs. (Germany spent more than half a trillion Euros, and the Spanish not much less.)
The only question, then, is whether the crisis is resolved by the shareholders in a few small banks losing all their money (and share prices are down 95% in the last two years already), or by the Italian government being allowed to write a cheque one way or another.
Why do we need opinion polls if they never get either the result or the winner correct ?
Anecdotal evidence and turnout are much more accurate than opinion polls, and much cheaper.
Bugger all anecdotes about potential Green win in Austria as I recall.
I recall seeing one, which was that polls last time had Hoffer well in front and it turned out very very close, and the polls were closer this time, therefore chances were the Green would win. Since I didn't see the polls either time, I count that as an anecdote.
Why do we need opinion polls if they never get either the result or the winner correct ?
Anecdotal evidence and turnout are much more accurate than opinion polls, and much cheaper.
Bugger all anecdotes about potential Green win in Austria as I recall.
Not really, the anecdotes where that the Greens where moving their campaign to the countryside to outflank the FPD with full campaign support from the government on every level, that they have a new Chancellor who is more popular than the last one also helped.
The turnout figures where the death knell.
Anyway the FPD will not form the next government in Austria regardless how they do in the parliamentary elections, the new President will refuse to swear them in.
It was suggested above that, since the two front runners at Sleaford in 2015 were the Tories and UKIP, the Lib Dem vote could be squeezed.
The difficulty with this idea is that Mrs May has now adopted the UKIP platform, lock, stock and barrel. These two parties are now indistinguishable. There is small choice in rotten apples.
Before the Lib Dems became tarnished because of their association with the Conservatives in the Coalition Government, the Lib Dems came second in this constituency. Following Richmond, I would expect them to come at least second this time. There is currently quite a lot of good will towards the Lib Dems.
Libs have grown share in every election since 2015 GE. So, they will get a few points of least. Labour will lost a few points. UKIP is tough to know. Clearly the Tory MP resigning is taking the piss. Therefore, I think turnout will be low. But I don't think UKIP will get any momentum.
Tories, 1st, Libs 2nd, UKIP, 3rd, Lab, 4th. Success will depend on who gains shares. Libs will. The rest...who knows. (I'm often wrong).
I would be very surprised if the Libs made it to second. I guess it's possible in a low turnout vote, where they are the only Remain option, but my money would be on them creeping back above 10% (but still seeing their absolute number of votes fall).
I think you are being a bit pessimistic there, Young Robert! Come on... Who did you think was going to win at Richmond?
The LDs going from fourth (almost fifth) to a good third place, with their vote share up 5%, is a good result for them.
Agreed, also UKIP need to at least come second and be in contention with the Tories. This is a good chance for them.
If May was publicly against Brexit or Brexit had been shelved then yes I would expect UKIP to pull a Richmond in rural Lincolnshire.
Dan Hodges was also right about Ed M. It seems apparent none of us are very good at predicting how events will go, just that sometimes our preconceptions and interpretations of the evidence line up with the result.
Why do we need opinion polls if they never get either the result or the winner correct ?
Anecdotal evidence and turnout are much more accurate than opinion polls, and much cheaper.
Bugger all anecdotes about potential Green win in Austria as I recall.
Not really, the anecdotes where that the Greens where moving their campaign to the countryside to outflank the FPD with full campaign support from the government on every level, that they have a new Chancellor who is more popular than the last one also helped.
The turnout figures where the death knell.
Anyway the FPD will not form the next government in Austria regardless how they do in the parliamentary elections, the new President will refuse to swear them in.
Why do we need opinion polls if they never get either the result or the winner correct ?
Anecdotal evidence and turnout are much more accurate than opinion polls, and much cheaper.
Bugger all anecdotes about potential Green win in Austria as I recall.
I recall seeing one, which was that polls last time had Hoffer well in front and it turned out very very close, and the polls were closer this time, therefore chances were the Green would win. Since I didn't see the polls either time, I count that as an anecdote.
I put out my anecdote yesterday from talking to an Austrian friend, who had it as a toss up, as were the polls. As such I thought Hofer too short so backed tbe Green. Only a tenner, but satisfying.
Why do we need opinion polls if they never get either the result or the winner correct ?
Anecdotal evidence and turnout are much more accurate than opinion polls, and much cheaper.
Bugger all anecdotes about potential Green win in Austria as I recall.
I recall seeing one, which was that polls last time had Hoffer well in front and it turned out very very close, and the polls were closer this time, therefore chances were the Green would win. Since I didn't see the polls either time, I count that as an anecdote.
Why do we need opinion polls if they never get either the result or the winner correct ?
Anecdotal evidence and turnout are much more accurate than opinion polls, and much cheaper.
Bugger all anecdotes about potential Green win in Austria as I recall.
I recall seeing one, which was that polls last time had Hoffer well in front and it turned out very very close, and the polls were closer this time, therefore chances were the Green would win. Since I didn't see the polls either time, I count that as an anecdote.
Why do we need opinion polls if they never get either the result or the winner correct ?
Anecdotal evidence and turnout are much more accurate than opinion polls, and much cheaper.
Bugger all anecdotes about potential Green win in Austria as I recall.
I recall seeing one, which was that polls last time had Hoffer well in front and it turned out very very close, and the polls were closer this time, therefore chances were the Green would win. Since I didn't see the polls either time, I count that as an anecdote.
I put out my anecdote yesterday from talking toban Austrian friend, who had it as a toss up, as were the polls. As such I thought Hofer too short so backed tbe Green. Only a tenner, but satisfying.
I backed Yes in Italy for similar reasons.
The anecdotes in Italy and the turnout point towards a NO victory though.
Expect the trust number to drop, depending on the outcome. That the outcome won't stop Brexit no matter which way they decide will be irrelevant to media using it to distract.
Judges were not always trusted figures, when they made controversial decisions they often became figures of mistrust and ridicule:
Peter Cook only slightly exaggerated Mr. Justice Cantley's summing up.
Cantley was once told by Counsel in a personal injury case that his client could no longer have a sex life, due to his accident. Cantley asked how he could have a sex life when he wasn't married.
Is there a suggestion, that if Renzi fails, the banks will be allowed to fail as a told you so moment?
I doubt it. Frankly the last thing the ECB wants is a failed bank anywhere in the Eurozone - it would massively increase capital flight issue, and further unbalance Target-2.
Really; I think the Italian referendum is a bit of a red herring. Tomorrow Renzi will resign. Later in the week, another DP politician will "do a May" and become the next PM, and then Italy will bumble around for another 15 months.
The big question is what happens at the March 2018 elections.
Why do we need opinion polls if they never get either the result or the winner correct ?
Anecdotal evidence and turnout are much more accurate than opinion polls, and much cheaper.
Bugger all anecdotes about potential Green win in Austria as I recall.
I recall seeing one, which was that polls last time had Hoffer well in front and it turned out very very close, and the polls were closer this time, therefore chances were the Green would win. Since I didn't see the polls either time, I count that as an anecdote.
I put out my anecdote yesterday from talking to an Austrian friend, who had it as a toss up, as were the polls. As such I thought Hofer too short so backed tbe Green. Only a tenner, but satisfying.
Is there a suggestion, that if Renzi fails, the banks will be allowed to fail as a told you so moment?
I doubt it. Frankly the last thing the ECB wants is a failed bank anywhere in the Eurozone - it would massively increase capital flight issue, and further unbalance Target-2.
Really; I think the Italian referendum is a bit of a red herring. Tomorrow Renzi will resign. Later in the week, another DP politician will "do a May" and become the next PM, and then Italy will bumble around for another 15 months.
The big question is what happens at the March 2018 elections.
Change of govt in Italy is a rather "cold weather in winter" story. Hardly surprising.
Dan Hodges was also right about Ed M. It seems apparent none of us are very good at predicting how events will go, just that sometimes our preconceptions and interpretations of the evidence line up with the result.
This site is good at identifying value, if not picking the winner.
Is there a suggestion, that if Renzi fails, the banks will be allowed to fail as a told you so moment?
I doubt it. Frankly the last thing the ECB wants is a failed bank anywhere in the Eurozone - it would massively increase capital flight issue, and further unbalance Target-2.
Really; I think the Italian referendum is a bit of a red herring. Tomorrow Renzi will resign. Later in the week, another DP politician will "do a May" and become the next PM, and then Italy will bumble around for another 15 months.
The big question is what happens at the March 2018 elections.
As long as the Italian economy continues to drift, an M5S win but needing nationalist support to pass legislation, what they all agree upon is ditching the Euro.
Is there a suggestion, that if Renzi fails, the banks will be allowed to fail as a told you so moment?
I doubt it. Frankly the last thing the ECB wants is a failed bank anywhere in the Eurozone - it would massively increase capital flight issue, and further unbalance Target-2.
Really; I think the Italian referendum is a bit of a red herring. Tomorrow Renzi will resign. Later in the week, another DP politician will "do a May" and become the next PM, and then Italy will bumble around for another 15 months.
The big question is what happens at the March 2018 elections.
As long as the Italian economy continues to drift, an M5S win but needing nationalist support to pass legislation, what they all agree upon is ditching the Euro.
There is not a consensus in Italy to leave the Eurozone yet.
Little bit unseemly. Voting irregularities may have 'won' van der Bellen the first round, then he wins the re-run. I'm not saying this vote is flawed, but if the last one hadn't been then Hofer may have been president for months already.
Is there a suggestion, that if Renzi fails, the banks will be allowed to fail as a told you so moment?
I doubt it. Frankly the last thing the ECB wants is a failed bank anywhere in the Eurozone - it would massively increase capital flight issue, and further unbalance Target-2.
Really; I think the Italian referendum is a bit of a red herring. Tomorrow Renzi will resign. Later in the week, another DP politician will "do a May" and become the next PM, and then Italy will bumble around for another 15 months.
The big question is what happens at the March 2018 elections.
As long as the Italian economy continues to drift, an M5S win but needing nationalist support to pass legislation, what they all agree upon is ditching the Euro.
There is not a consensus in Italy to leave the Eurozone yet.
It was suggested above that, since the two front runners at Sleaford in 2015 were the Tories and UKIP, the Lib Dem vote could be squeezed.
The difficulty with this idea is that Mrs May has now adopted the UKIP platform, lock, stock and barrel. These two parties are now indistinguishable. There is small choice in rotten apples.
Before the Lib Dems became tarnished because of their association with the Conservatives in the Coalition Government, the Lib Dems came second in this constituency. Following Richmond, I would expect them to come at least second this time. There is currently quite a lot of good will towards the Lib Dems.
Libs have grown share in every election since 2015 GE. So, they will get a few points of least. Labour will lost a few points. UKIP is tough to know. Clearly the Tory MP resigning is taking the piss. Therefore, I think turnout will be low. But I don't think UKIP will get any momentum.
Tories, 1st, Libs 2nd, UKIP, 3rd, Lab, 4th. Success will depend on who gains shares. Libs will. The rest...who knows. (I'm often wrong).
I would be very surprised if the Libs made it to second. I guess it's possible in a low turnout vote, where they are the only Remain option, but my money would be on them creeping back above 10% (but still seeing their absolute number of votes fall).
If Sleaford was Remain and the LibDems were in UKIPs shoes they would do very well, but it's 62% Leave and UKIP are on 16%, with LibDems under 6%. It's a mirror image of Richmond Park, UKIP should be in contention and the LibDems should be squeezed
Lib Dems squeezed in favour of whom? Certainly not Tories. Certainly not UKIP. They are, you claim, the front runners.
Is there a suggestion, that if Renzi fails, the banks will be allowed to fail as a told you so moment?
I doubt it. Frankly the last thing the ECB wants is a failed bank anywhere in the Eurozone - it would massively increase capital flight issue, and further unbalance Target-2.
Really; I think the Italian referendum is a bit of a red herring. Tomorrow Renzi will resign. Later in the week, another DP politician will "do a May" and become the next PM, and then Italy will bumble around for another 15 months.
The big question is what happens at the March 2018 elections.
As long as the Italian economy continues to drift, an M5S win but needing nationalist support to pass legislation, what they all agree upon is ditching the Euro.
There is not a consensus in Italy to leave the Eurozone yet.
Berlusconi, Salvini, Grilo.
The 3 Musketeers of the Lireta.
Nevertheless, I do not believe that until the majority of the Italian people favour leaving the Euro (and there is no sign that Grillo is any more EUROsceptic than than Tsipras) that we will see the country depart the Bloc.
Now, what I am not forecasting is the future views of the Italian people. I think it's highly likely that Italy cannot make the Euro work, and that you go from a narrow 60:40 in favour of Euro membership to a majority for Leave. But we're not there yet, and I'm sceptical that we'll be there in March 2018.
It was suggested above that, since the two front runners at Sleaford in 2015 were the Tories and UKIP, the Lib Dem vote could be squeezed.
The difficulty with this idea is that Mrs May has now adopted the UKIP platform, lock, stock and barrel. These two parties are now indistinguishable. There is small choice in rotten apples.
Before the Lib Dems became tarnished because of their association with the Conservatives in the Coalition Government, the Lib Dems came second in this constituency. Following Richmond, I would expect them to come at least second this time. There is currently quite a lot of good will towards the Lib Dems.
Libs have grown share in every election since 2015 GE. So, they will get a few points of least. Labour will lost a few points. UKIP is tough to know. Clearly the Tory MP resigning is taking the piss. Therefore, I think turnout will be low. But I don't think UKIP will get any momentum.
Tories, 1st, Libs 2nd, UKIP, 3rd, Lab, 4th. Success will depend on who gains shares. Libs will. The rest...who knows. (I'm often wrong).
I would be very surprised if the Libs made it to second. I guess it's possible in a low turnout vote, where they are the only Remain option, but my money would be on them creeping back above 10% (but still seeing their absolute number of votes fall).
If Sleaford was Remain and the LibDems were in UKIPs shoes they would do very well, but it's 62% Leave and UKIP are on 16%, with LibDems under 6%. It's a mirror image of Richmond Park, UKIP should be in contention and the LibDems should be squeezed
Except I suspect that - even with Richmond Park on - the LDs will have had a more active campaign in Sleaford than UKIP.
Farron tweeted from there today. He just loves the grind of campaigning, which is why the activists like him so much. He is one of them.
That could offer them a way back to national relevance, but at the same time it is hard to see them supplanting Labour, never mind the Tories, on such a narrow prospectus. They need a message on jobs and housing, if we're honest, to do that.
The first challenge for the LibDems is not to supplant Labour. The first challenge is to once again become a national party with 15-20% support.
Farron appears to be gambling that Brexit could be the new Iraq War, and I think he's right. Yes, you do need a message on jobs and housing and schools and the NHS, but (aside from consensus-breakers such as grammar schools) these are essentially managerial issues, tied in with long-held perceptions ("Labour is good on the NHS") and general favourability ratings. It's very hard to gain 10% within one parliament on these issues.
Like Iraq, Brexit is a fast track back to relevance for the LibDems. People who care about Brexit care a lot about Brexit. Given the choice between Labour (won't reverse Brexit, ok-to-good on schools and hospitals), the Tories (won't reverse Brexit, passable on schools and hospitals), UKIP (won't reverse Brexit, who knows on schools and hospitals), and the LibDems (want to reverse Brexit, ok-to-good on schools and hospitals), they are going to march straight to the ballot box and vote LibDem. That's what Richmond Park has shown us.
You only need 10% of the electorate with such an attitude and the LibDems are back in the game. Other policies can wait for the next parliament.
(Two side issues. Mr Doctor, you are the first commenter in this place - apart from perhaps OGH - whose political sympathies appear to be broadly similar to my own, and for that I salute you. Second, in the defection thread, I was surprised to see no mention of Soubry or Morgan. Am I missing something?)
Is the concession of Hofer based on ballot returns so far, or just exit polls?
Very interesting if the polls called this wrong - it shows that the failure of polls is not only in a 'shy unpalatable-option voter' direction. So far most polling failures have benefited candidates of the right.
Will be very interesting if we end up seeing a Yes vote in Italy too (some comments on turnout suggest it may be favouring Renzi and Yes?).
Is there a suggestion, that if Renzi fails, the banks will be allowed to fail as a told you so moment?
I doubt it. Frankly the last thing the ECB wants is a failed bank anywhere in the Eurozone - it would massively increase capital flight issue, and further unbalance Target-2.
Really; I think the Italian referendum is a bit of a red herring. Tomorrow Renzi will resign. Later in the week, another DP politician will "do a May" and become the next PM, and then Italy will bumble around for another 15 months.
The big question is what happens at the March 2018 elections.
As long as the Italian economy continues to drift, an M5S win but needing nationalist support to pass legislation, what they all agree upon is ditching the Euro.
There is not a consensus in Italy to leave the Eurozone yet.
Berlusconi, Salvini, Grilo.
The 3 Musketeers of the Lireta.
Nevertheless, I do not believe that until the majority of the Italian people favour leaving the Euro (and there is no sign that Grillo is any more EUROsceptic than than Tsipras) that we will see the country depart the Bloc.
Now, what I am not forecasting is the future views of the Italian people. I think it's highly likely that Italy cannot make the Euro work, and that you go from a narrow 60:40 in favour of Euro membership to a majority for Leave. But we're not there yet, and I'm sceptical that we'll be there in March 2018.
On the contrary, unlike Renzi and Tsipras who are committed european idealists (when Germany says Jump they say how high) Grillo is not a euro-communist or a euro-liberal.
The only thing that Grillo, Berlusconi and Salvini agree is ditching the Euro for the Lireta for different reasons each, and they will have a majority in both houses after the next election and their 4 parties command majority public support.
It was suggested above that, since the two front runners at Sleaford in 2015 were the Tories and UKIP, the Lib Dem vote could be squeezed.
The difficulty with this idea is that Mrs May has now adopted the UKIP platform, lock, stock and barrel. These two parties are now indistinguishable. There is small choice in rotten apples.
Before the Lib Dems became tarnished because of their association with the Conservatives in the Coalition Government, the Lib Dems came second in this constituency. Following Richmond, I would expect them to come at least second this time. There is currently quite a lot of good will towards the Lib Dems.
Libs have grown share in every election since 2015 GE. So, they will get a few points of least. Labour will lost a few points. UKIP is tough to know. Clearly the Tory MP resigning is taking the piss. Therefore, I think turnout will be low. But I don't think UKIP will get any momentum.
Tories, 1st, Libs 2nd, UKIP, 3rd, Lab, 4th. Success will depend on who gains shares. Libs will. The rest...who knows. (I'm often wrong).
I would be very surprised if the Libs made it to second. I guess it's possible in a low turnout vote, where they are the only Remain option, but my money would be on them creeping back above 10% (but still seeing their absolute number of votes fall).
If Sleaford was Remain and the LibDems were in UKIPs shoes they would do very well, but it's 62% Leave and UKIP are on 16%, with LibDems under 6%. It's a mirror image of Richmond Park, UKIP should be in contention and the LibDems should be squeezed
Except I suspect that - even with Richmond Park on - the LDs will have had a more active campaign in Sleaford than UKIP.
Farron tweeted from there today. He just loves the grind of campaigning, which is why the activists like him so much. He is one of them.
He was chosen as a good campaigner rather than a Clegg-like potential PM I guess. Rebuild the party from the ground up. Despite criticism of him as being a bit underwhelming on the national stage (from me included), it could be that he's doing his job quite nicely.
Is there a suggestion, that if Renzi fails, the banks will be allowed to fail as a told you so moment?
I doubt it. Frankly the last thing the ECB wants is a failed bank anywhere in the Eurozone - it would massively increase capital flight issue, and further unbalance Target-2.
Really; I think the Italian referendum is a bit of a red herring. Tomorrow Renzi will resign. Later in the week, another DP politician will "do a May" and become the next PM, and then Italy will bumble around for another 15 months.
The big question is what happens at the March 2018 elections.
As long as the Italian economy continues to drift, an M5S win but needing nationalist support to pass legislation, what they all agree upon is ditching the Euro.
There is not a consensus in Italy to leave the Eurozone yet.
Berlusconi, Salvini, Grilo.
The 3 Musketeers of the Lireta.
Nevertheless, I do not believe that until the majority of the Italian people favour leaving the Euro (and there is no sign that Grillo is any more EUROsceptic than than Tsipras) that we will see the country depart the Bloc.
Now, what I am not forecasting is the future views of the Italian people. I think it's highly likely that Italy cannot make the Euro work, and that you go from a narrow 60:40 in favour of Euro membership to a majority for Leave. But we're not there yet, and I'm sceptical that we'll be there in March 2018.
On the contrary, unlike Renzi and Tsipras who are committed european idealists (when Germany says Jump they say how high) Grillo is not a euro-communist or a euro-liberal.
The only thing that Grillo, Berlusconi and Salvini agree is ditching the Euro for the Lireta for different reasons each, and they will have a majority in both houses after the next election.
Where do you get this evidence that he is in favour of dumping the Euro for the lira? He's suggested it, sure (albeit always in the context of a referendum). But he's also suggested that the EU should do more in lots of other spheres, and he's been pretty clear that his problem with the Euro is that it stops Italy running deficits.
There has been exactly zero evidence that it is a major policy platform for M5S.
Where do you get this evidence that he is in favour of dumping the Euro for the lira? He's suggested it, sure (albeit always in the context of a referendum). But he's also suggested that the EU should do more in lots of other spheres, and he's been pretty clear that his problem with the Euro is that it stops Italy running deficits.
There has been exactly zero evidence that it is a major policy platform for M5S.
I only had to do a quick google search to get this on Grillo's own website and statements by it's senate leader:
"Today, those who insist on defending the single currency are the greatest anti-Europeans in history. The 5 Star Movement confirms its position: it is imperative to choose the sovereign people - the entire Italian people - the fate of the project Euro through referenda "
"talk euros, of alternative solutions and generally prepare technically leaving the single currency must not be regarded as a subversive act, but of political responsibility "
"if the Italians they wanted to, with a referendum , we'd go from ' € " because "the euro penalizes poor countries, countries weak , and we we are, we must admit. "
Farron tweeted from there today. He just loves the grind of campaigning, which is why the activists like him so much. He is one of them.
He was chosen as a good campaigner rather than a Clegg-like potential PM I guess. Rebuild the party from the ground up. Despite criticism of him as being a bit underwhelming on the national stage (from me included), it could be that he's doing his job quite nicely.
That's exactly why I tipped him for the job back in 2013 or so.
The Lib Dems needed to rebuild. There are many ways that could have been done, but trying to do it on the national stage - and being at the whim of the media who have not been giving them much airtime - does not suit the Lib Dem's strengths. Farron has been rebuilding them using their strengths: for instance lots of supporters on the ground who needed enthusing after the trauma of 2015.
There are opportunities for the Lib Dems in this post-Brexit world, and the work he's done has put them in a good place to take advantage of them. Having said that, if they do I'm unlikely to vote for them ...
Where do you get this evidence that he is in favour of dumping the Euro for the lira? He's suggested it, sure (albeit always in the context of a referendum). But he's also suggested that the EU should do more in lots of other spheres, and he's been pretty clear that his problem with the Euro is that it stops Italy running deficits.
There has been exactly zero evidence that it is a major policy platform for M5S.
I only had to do a quick google search to get this on Grillo's own website and statements by it's senate leader:
"Today, those who insist on defending the single currency are the greatest anti-Europeans in history. The 5 Star Movement confirms its position: it is imperative to choose the sovereign people - the entire Italian people - the fate of the project Euro through referenda "
"talk euros, of alternative solutions and generally prepare technically leaving the single currency must not be regarded as a subversive act, but of political responsibility "
"if the Italians they wanted to, with a referendum , we'd go from ' € " because "the euro penalizes poor countries, countries weak , and we we are, we must admit. "
They've toughened the language up since I last read it. You might be right, although I'm still sceptical until I see polls on Italy backing exiting the Euro
they need to work out turnout for Undecideds, I doubt there is much switching between the choices/parties in these very divisive elections apart from the UK general election 2015 and even there many did not switch between Labour and tory in last few days.
Championed from the beginning by Britain's right wing nationalist political party, which supplanted the BNP and National Front. And by politicians regarded as on the extreme right wing of the Conservative party. Opposed by moderate conservatives, the greens, liberal democrats, SNP, PC, and almost all Labour politicians from moderate through soft left. What part of the obvious are you missing?
Low turnout in the poor South shouldn't be a surprise, what matters is what the North is doing.
Populist South plus Nationalist North against Socialist Tuscany.
It's essentially the Italian electoral map going back to 1945.
tyson will be very unhappy.
Italian elections are very predictable, voting is predetermined by where you live.
If you live in Tuscany or Bolognia you vote socialist, if you live in the North or South you vote for the dominant Anti-Socialist party.
Occasionally the socialists win but only if there is no dominant anti-socialist party in the North, with the second round electoral reform it dooms the socialists since the anti-socialists can easily find the dominant party in the second round.
Is the concession of Hofer based on ballot returns so far, or just exit polls?
Very interesting if the polls called this wrong - it shows that the failure of polls is not only in a 'shy unpalatable-option voter' direction. So far most polling failures have benefited candidates of the right.
Will be very interesting if we end up seeing a Yes vote in Italy too (some comments on turnout suggest it may be favouring Renzi and Yes?).
yes, it is rare that opinion polls understate the leftie!
It was suggested above that, since the two front runners at Sleaford in 2015 were the Tories and UKIP, the Lib Dem vote could be squeezed.
The difficulty with this idea is that Mrs May has now adopted the UKIP platform, lock, stock and barrel. These two parties are now indistinguishable. There is small choice in rotten apples.
Before the Lib Dems became tarnished because of their association with the Conservatives in the Coalition Government, the Lib Dems came second in this constituency. Following Richmond, I would expect them to come at least second this time. There is currently quite a lot of good will towards the Lib Dems.
Libs have grown share in every election since 2015 GE. So, they will get a few points of least. Labour will lost a few points. UKIP is tough to know. Clearly the Tory MP resigning is taking the piss. Therefore, I think turnout will be low. But I don't think UKIP will get any momentum.
Tories, 1st, Libs 2nd, UKIP, 3rd, Lab, 4th. Success will depend on who gains shares. Libs will. The rest...who knows. (I'm often wrong).
I would be very surprised if the Libs made it to second. I guess it's possible in a low turnout vote, where they are the only Remain option, but my money would be on them creeping back above 10% (but still seeing their absolute number of votes fall).
I think you are being a bit pessimistic there, Young Robert! Come on... Who did you think was going to win at Richmond?
The LDs going from fourth (almost fifth) to a good third place, with their vote share up 5%, is a good result for them.
Agreed, also UKIP need to at least come second and be in contention with the Tories. This is a good chance for them.
If May was publicly against Brexit or Brexit had been shelved then yes I would expect UKIP to pull a Richmond in rural Lincolnshire.
So far that is not the case.
Yes it is completely logical that voters in Sleaford should vote Conservative as the party that is actually delivering the break with Europe that they voted for.
I just wonder if logic comes into this kind of contest.
If they wanted to show that they were still angry then voting UKIP might feel better. And while Sleaford isn't Richmond, even there there will be a number of people who normally vote Tory who want to protest against Brexit by voting Lib Dem. There might not be many, but even a couple of thousand might be enough to bring the winning post into UKIP's range.
Championed from the beginning by Britain's far right nationalist political party, which supplanted the BNP and National Front. And by politicians regarded as on the extreme right wing of the Conservative party. Opposed by moderate conservatives, the greens, liberal democrats, SNP, PC, and almost all Labour politicians from moderate through soft left. What part of the obvious are you missing?
Depends what you call extreme.
If the british people only knew when we joined the common market that it turned into a political union where we tranfer political powers abroad and we open our borders to millions of immigrants,wouldn't the moderates then think that was extreme..
It's people like you who have been brain washed into thinking of this new extreme.
Championed from the beginning by Britain's far right nationalist political party, which supplanted the BNP and National Front. And by politicians regarded as on the extreme right wing of the Conservative party. Opposed by moderate conservatives, the greens, liberal democrats, SNP, PC, and almost all Labour politicians from moderate through soft left. What part of the obvious are you missing?
Depends what you call extreme.
If the british people only knew when we joined the common market that it turned into a political union where we tranfer political powers abroad and we open our borders to millions of immigrants,wouldn't the moderates then think that was extreme..
It's people like you who have been brain washed into thinking of this new extreme.
Me and almost every moderate politician in the country, it would seem.
Where do you get this evidence that he is in favour of dumping the Euro for the lira? He's suggested it, sure (albeit always in the context of a referendum). But he's also suggested that the EU should do more in lots of other spheres, and he's been pretty clear that his problem with the Euro is that it stops Italy running deficits.
There has been exactly zero evidence that it is a major policy platform for M5S.
I only had to do a quick google search to get this on Grillo's own website and statements by it's senate leader:
"Today, those who insist on defending the single currency are the greatest anti-Europeans in history. The 5 Star Movement confirms its position: it is imperative to choose the sovereign people - the entire Italian people - the fate of the project Euro through referenda "
"talk euros, of alternative solutions and generally prepare technically leaving the single currency must not be regarded as a subversive act, but of political responsibility "
"if the Italians they wanted to, with a referendum , we'd go from ' € " because "the euro penalizes poor countries, countries weak , and we we are, we must admit. "
They've toughened the language up since I last read it. You might be right, although I'm still sceptical until I see polls on Italy backing exiting the Euro
Their position is basically support for the single currency is anti-european and irresponsible.
Berlusconi and Salvini are against euro membership for different reasons, for either big industry or nationalism.
All 3 cover all bases needed to move Italy out: Lefty Students, the Poor, the Industrialists, the Nationalists, all their interests align on this one issue.
In Italy when a Naples-Milan political axis forms it is very powerful.
Is the concession of Hofer based on ballot returns so far, or just exit polls?
Very interesting if the polls called this wrong - it shows that the failure of polls is not only in a 'shy unpalatable-option voter' direction. So far most polling failures have benefited candidates of the right.
Will be very interesting if we end up seeing a Yes vote in Italy too (some comments on turnout suggest it may be favouring Renzi and Yes?).
yes, it is rare that opinion polls understate the leftie!
This result was somewhat predictable because the polls slightly underestimated vdB in the first election.
Championed from the beginning by Britain's far right nationalist political party, which supplanted the BNP and National Front. And by politicians regarded as on the extreme right wing of the Conservative party. Opposed by moderate conservatives, the greens, liberal democrats, SNP, PC, and almost all Labour politicians from moderate through soft left. What part of the obvious are you missing?
Depends what you call extreme.
If the british people only knew when we joined the common market that it turned into a political union where we tranfer political powers abroad and we open our borders to millions of immigrants,wouldn't the moderates then think that was extreme..
It's people like you who have been brain washed into thinking of this new extreme.
Me and almost every moderate politician in the country, it would seem.
Have any actual votes been counted yet in Austria? When I think of concessions, Bob Marshall-Andrews in Medway in 2005 comes to mind. He conceded the election, only to be elected a few hours later.
Having made the rather cheeky prediction of suggesting that the Austrian election wouldn't be as close as the polls predicted - but without saying which way - I'm pleased to say I'm right :P
Championed from the beginning by Britain's far right nationalist political party, which supplanted the BNP and National Front. And by politicians regarded as on the extreme right wing of the Conservative party. Opposed by moderate conservatives, the greens, liberal democrats, SNP, PC, and almost all Labour politicians from moderate through soft left. What part of the obvious are you missing?
Depends what you call extreme.
If the british people only knew when we joined the common market that it turned into a political union where we tranfer political powers abroad and we open our borders to millions of immigrants,wouldn't the moderates then think that was extreme..
It's people like you who have been brain washed into thinking of this new extreme.
Me and almost every moderate politician in the country, it would seem.
Your the extremist in my view,I am the moderate.
It's the same thing with media coverage of Trump deferring to his wife re family taking care of - he's Alpha Male not Metrosexual Dad.
Those who seek to denigrate a traditional nuclear family mindset are seriously missing the point here.
That's exactly why I tipped him for the job back in 2013 or so.
The Lib Dems needed to rebuild. There are many ways that could have been done, but trying to do it on the national stage - and being at the whim of the media who have not been giving them much airtime - does not suit the Lib Dem's strengths. Farron has been rebuilding them using their strengths: for instance lots of supporters on the ground who needed enthusing after the trauma of 2015.
There are opportunities for the Lib Dems in this post-Brexit world, and the work he's done has put them in a good place to take advantage of them. Having said that, if they do I'm unlikely to vote for them ...
When I went to the London Hustings in July 2015 and heard both Tim Farron and Norman Lamb speak (and both were excellent), there was little doubt that were we still in Government as part of a Coalition, Lamb would be the only choice.
But we weren't - we had been shattered not just by the GE but by years of local losses. We needed to rebuild from the ground up and we needed an activist to lead us so Tim was the only choice just as Paddy had been the only choice in the post-merger election of 1989.
Tim has the energy and the drive, no question. That's what the party needs now more than a detailed policy programme.
they need to work out turnout for Undecideds, I doubt there is much switching between the choices/parties in these very divisive elections apart from the UK general election 2015 and even there many did not switch between Labour and tory in last few days.
I'm all for being difficult with pollsters when they cock it up - but this is unfair. The result is 3% from each.
How awkward will it be when Trump is inaugurated and the former presidents and their spouses come out......
There are not many ex-Presidents alive.
Carter: no public statements on the election due to ill health, an appearance may be unlikely.
Bush H.W.: Hates Trump for what he did to W. and Jeb, although he bowed to Trump after his victory.
Clinton: Best friends with Trump until the election, they probably shared a few supermodels, relationship certainly frosty and complicated from the campaign, will Hillary make an appearance ?
Bush W.: Hates Trump because he accused him of being behind 9/11 and invading Iraq for the oil, and for what he did to Jeb, but he too has bowed to Trump after his victory.
Obama: Buried the hatchet of war, he wants to stay close to Trump to influence him politically.
Have any actual votes been counted yet in Austria? When I think of concessions, Bob Marshall-Andrews in Medway in 2005 comes to mind. He conceded the election, only to be elected a few hours later.
Have any actual votes been counted yet in Austria? When I think of concessions, Bob Marshall-Andrews in Medway in 2005 comes to mind. He conceded the election, only to be elected a few hours later.
Incidentally I am now of the view that Fillon at 1.68 (59% chance) is good value, clear water above the ~1.4 (71%) which I think is fair value. Macron (9/1) is a tad short, having failed to get the right opponent either to the right or to the left - 12/1 (7.5%) would be fair. Le Pen (7/2) is far too short, should be 6/1 (14%). Valls at 5% (19/1) and Montebourg at 2% (49/1) are not far off.
Have any actual votes been counted yet in Austria? When I think of concessions, Bob Marshall-Andrews in Medway in 2005 comes to mind. He conceded the election, only to be elected a few hours later.
Farage conceded early on Referendum night.
Oh yes, that too.
Of course it wasn't his to concede, he wasn't in the appointed campaign / didn't have access to all the canvassing returns.
Have any actual votes been counted yet in Austria? When I think of concessions, Bob Marshall-Andrews in Medway in 2005 comes to mind. He conceded the election, only to be elected a few hours later.
I don't claim to be an expert but is Austrian bloke really far right? I've heard he's very hostile to Islam but is he really on the Le Pen/Gilders scale let alone Hitler?
Have any actual votes been counted yet in Austria? When I think of concessions, Bob Marshall-Andrews in Medway in 2005 comes to mind. He conceded the election, only to be elected a few hours later.
Farage conceded early on Referendum night.
Twice
I think the 'say the thing that will get me in a headline' subconscious routine came into play.
Championed from the beginning by Britain's far right nationalist political party, which supplanted the BNP and National Front. And by politicians regarded as on the extreme right wing of the Conservative party. Opposed by moderate conservatives, the greens, liberal democrats, SNP, PC, and almost all Labour politicians from moderate through soft left. What part of the obvious are you missing?
Depends what you call extreme.
If the british people only knew when we joined the common market that it turned into a political union where we tranfer political powers abroad and we open our borders to millions of immigrants,wouldn't the moderates then think that was extreme..
It's people like you who have been brain washed into thinking of this new extreme.
Me and almost every moderate politician in the country, it would seem.
Your the extremist in my view,I am the moderate.
In the first referendum extremists like The Morning Star, Tony Benn and Jeremy Corbyn opposed it. The moderate responsible mainstream press like the Express and the Mail supported membership. Since when they've gone all Bennite and oppose it. Commie entryism I suppose.
they need to work out turnout for Undecideds, I doubt there is much switching between the choices/parties in these very divisive elections apart from the UK general election 2015 and even there many did not switch between Labour and tory in last few days.
I'm all for being difficult with pollsters when they cock it up - but this is unfair. The result is 3% from each.
But they are all wrong in the same direction, which is a problem.
Yeah, that one confused me too. Doctors I understand (though not spokesman doctors, like any other media spinners they'll mislead), but teachers was a surprise.
@Speedy: re Italian Euro membership, I just read the following that you might find interesting:
"the Italian constitution prohibits referendums on the abrogation of laws ratifying international treaties, and the jurisprudence that has developed over the years has extended the prohibition to the laws that give effect to such treaties.
That means that in order to hold a euro membership referendum, it would probably first be necessary to secure a revision of the constitution, and for that to be possible, it would be necessary to win two positive votes in each chamber of parliament at intervals of not less than three months"
So, assume M5S is the biggest party following the elections in 2018, that means we're realistically looking at a 2020 Euro referendum.
they need to work out turnout for Undecideds, I doubt there is much switching between the choices/parties in these very divisive elections apart from the UK general election 2015 and even there many did not switch between Labour and tory in last few days.
I'm all for being difficult with pollsters when they cock it up - but this is unfair. The result is 3% from each.
But they are all wrong in the same direction, which is a problem.
Slightly. Whilst sampling error should give rise to a distribution of error, action taken to avoid it will always lead to a systemic bias.
Championed from the beginning by Britain's far right nationalist political party, which supplanted the BNP and National Front. And by politicians regarded as on the extreme right wing of the Conservative party. Opposed by moderate conservatives, the greens, liberal democrats, SNP, PC, and almost all Labour politicians from moderate through soft left. What part of the obvious are you missing?
Depends what you call extreme.
If the british people only knew when we joined the common market that it turned into a political union where we tranfer political powers abroad and we open our borders to millions of immigrants,wouldn't the moderates then think that was extreme..
It's people like you who have been brain washed into thinking of this new extreme.
Me and almost every moderate politician in the country, it would seem.
Your the extremist in my view,I am the moderate.
In the first referendum extremists like The Morning Star, Tony Benn and Jeremy Corbyn opposed it. The moderate responsible mainstream press like the Express and the Mail supported membership. Since when they've gone all Bennite and oppose it. Commie entryism I suppose.
And Margaret Thatcher of course at the time campaigned to stay in. "even if it costs the housewife a little more"
Yes it is completely logical that voters in Sleaford should vote Conservative as the party that is actually delivering the break with Europe that they voted for.
I just wonder if logic comes into this kind of contest.
If they wanted to show that they were still angry then voting UKIP might feel better. And while Sleaford isn't Richmond, even there there will be a number of people who normally vote Tory who want to protest against Brexit by voting Lib Dem. There might not be many, but even a couple of thousand might be enough to bring the winning post into UKIP's range.
Has UKIP been active in the constituency? I would have thought a "Don't let Mrs May go backwards on Brexit. Vote UKIP to make sure she delivers" message would be very effective.
Yes it is completely logical that voters in Sleaford should vote Conservative as the party that is actually delivering the break with Europe that they voted for.
I just wonder if logic comes into this kind of contest.
If they wanted to show that they were still angry then voting UKIP might feel better. And while Sleaford isn't Richmond, even there there will be a number of people who normally vote Tory who want to protest against Brexit by voting Lib Dem. There might not be many, but even a couple of thousand might be enough to bring the winning post into UKIP's range.
Has UKIP been active in the constituency? I would have thought a "Don't let Mrs May go backwards on Brexit. Vote UKIP to make sure she delivers" message would be very effective.
they need to work out turnout for Undecideds, I doubt there is much switching between the choices/parties in these very divisive elections apart from the UK general election 2015 and even there many did not switch between Labour and tory in last few days.
I'm all for being difficult with pollsters when they cock it up - but this is unfair. The result is 3% from each.
But they are all wrong in the same direction, which is a problem.
Slightly. Whilst sampling error should give rise to a distribution of error, action taken to avoid it will always lead to a systemic bias.
There is clearly a systematic bias present at the moment.
Where do you get this evidence that he is in favour of dumping the Euro for the lira? He's suggested it, sure (albeit always in the context of a referendum). But he's also suggested that the EU should do more in lots of other spheres, and he's been pretty clear that his problem with the Euro is that it stops Italy running deficits.
There has been exactly zero evidence that it is a major policy platform for M5S.
I only had to do a quick google search to get this on Grillo's own website and statements by it's senate leader:
"Today, those who insist on defending the single currency are the greatest anti-Europeans in history. The 5 Star Movement confirms its position: it is imperative to choose the sovereign people - the entire Italian people - the fate of the project Euro through referenda "
"talk euros, of alternative solutions and generally prepare technically leaving the single currency must not be regarded as a subversive act, but of political responsibility "
"if the Italians they wanted to, with a referendum , we'd go from ' € " because "the euro penalizes poor countries, countries weak , and we we are, we must admit. "
They've toughened the language up since I last read it. You might be right, although I'm still sceptical until I see polls on Italy backing exiting the Euro
Their position is basically support for the single currency is anti-european and irresponsible.
Berlusconi and Salvini are against euro membership for different reasons, for either big industry or nationalism.
All 3 cover all bases needed to move Italy out: Lefty Students, the Poor, the Industrialists, the Nationalists, all their interests align on this one issue.
In Italy when a Naples-Milan political axis forms it is very powerful.
Naples? The Mafia have a policy on the Euro? Cripes!
Le Pen has gone out from 4.2 to 4.4, perhaps on the strength of Van der Bellen's win in Austria. I wonder how far she will come in on a NO win in Italy. Or it could already be priced in. NO in Italy is expected; the scale of VDB's win in Austria was a surprise even going by the polls.
they need to work out turnout for Undecideds, I doubt there is much switching between the choices/parties in these very divisive elections apart from the UK general election 2015 and even there many did not switch between Labour and tory in last few days.
I'm all for being difficult with pollsters when they cock it up - but this is unfair. The result is 3% from each.
But they are all wrong in the same direction, which is a problem.
Slightly. Whilst sampling error should give rise to a distribution of error, action taken to avoid it will always lead to a systemic bias.
There is clearly a systematic bias present at the moment.
But this one was a bias against the more mainstream candidate!
Comments
The turnout figures where the death knell.
Anyway the FPD will not form the next government in Austria regardless how they do in the parliamentary elections, the new President will refuse to swear them in.
Also, the fact is that the numbers are all really small. The total bill for bailing out the Italian banks is somewhere between E25bn (if you believe the Italian government) and E40bn (if you look at some people who are rather more sceptical). These are tiny numbers by the standards of bank bail-outs. (Germany spent more than half a trillion Euros, and the Spanish not much less.)
The only question, then, is whether the crisis is resolved by the shareholders in a few small banks losing all their money (and share prices are down 95% in the last two years already), or by the Italian government being allowed to write a cheque one way or another.
So far that is not the case.
I backed Yes in Italy for similar reasons.
Cantley was once told by Counsel in a personal injury case that his client could no longer have a sex life, due to his accident. Cantley asked how he could have a sex life when he wasn't married.
Really; I think the Italian referendum is a bit of a red herring. Tomorrow Renzi will resign. Later in the week, another DP politician will "do a May" and become the next PM, and then Italy will bumble around for another 15 months.
The big question is what happens at the March 2018 elections.
IIRC you decided very early on election night that it was All Over And Hillary Had Won.
I'm taking no lessons from you on this one. You graciously apologised to me on POTUS Night for being entirely wrong as did many others.
https://s12.postimg.org/rpq760j3h/italyturnout12.png
Red -> Blue = High -> Low on 1% gradients.
Compare to this map from Bloomberg on the No polling;
https://s12.postimg.org/j8qov3eel/Italy_No.png
Low turnout in the poor South shouldn't be a surprise, what matters is what the North/Central is doing.
We make predictions on this site.
It's essentially the Italian electoral map going back to 1945.
The 3 Musketeers of the Lireta.
Great live performers, though went a bit downhill after their debut album.
Now, what I am not forecasting is the future views of the Italian people. I think it's highly likely that Italy cannot make the Euro work, and that you go from a narrow 60:40 in favour of Euro membership to a majority for Leave. But we're not there yet, and I'm sceptical that we'll be there in March 2018.
This one seems key to changes in FAA procedures years later - plane hit the ground at 16Gs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhSoyUWDmt0
Farron appears to be gambling that Brexit could be the new Iraq War, and I think he's right. Yes, you do need a message on jobs and housing and schools and the NHS, but (aside from consensus-breakers such as grammar schools) these are essentially managerial issues, tied in with long-held perceptions ("Labour is good on the NHS") and general favourability ratings. It's very hard to gain 10% within one parliament on these issues.
Like Iraq, Brexit is a fast track back to relevance for the LibDems. People who care about Brexit care a lot about Brexit. Given the choice between Labour (won't reverse Brexit, ok-to-good on schools and hospitals), the Tories (won't reverse Brexit, passable on schools and hospitals), UKIP (won't reverse Brexit, who knows on schools and hospitals), and the LibDems (want to reverse Brexit, ok-to-good on schools and hospitals), they are going to march straight to the ballot box and vote LibDem. That's what Richmond Park has shown us.
You only need 10% of the electorate with such an attitude and the LibDems are back in the game. Other policies can wait for the next parliament.
(Two side issues. Mr Doctor, you are the first commenter in this place - apart from perhaps OGH - whose political sympathies appear to be broadly similar to my own, and for that I salute you. Second, in the defection thread, I was surprised to see no mention of Soubry or Morgan. Am I missing something?)
Very interesting if the polls called this wrong - it shows that the failure of polls is not only in a 'shy unpalatable-option voter' direction. So far most polling failures have benefited candidates of the right.
Will be very interesting if we end up seeing a Yes vote in Italy too (some comments on turnout suggest it may be favouring Renzi and Yes?).
The only thing that Grillo, Berlusconi and Salvini agree is ditching the Euro for the Lireta for different reasons each, and they will have a majority in both houses after the next election and their 4 parties command majority public support.
There has been exactly zero evidence that it is a major policy platform for M5S.
https://trumpgrets.tumblr.com/
"Today, those who insist on defending the single currency are the greatest anti-Europeans in history. The 5 Star Movement confirms its position: it is imperative to choose the sovereign people - the entire Italian people - the fate of the project Euro through referenda "
"talk euros, of alternative solutions and generally prepare technically leaving the single currency must not be regarded as a subversive act, but of political responsibility "
"if the Italians they wanted to, with a referendum , we'd go from ' € " because "the euro penalizes poor countries, countries weak , and we we are, we must admit. "
http://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/2016/08/23/m5s-chi-difende-leuro-e-anti-europeista-gli-italiani-scelgano-se-tenerlo-con-un-referendum/2991798/
The Lib Dems needed to rebuild. There are many ways that could have been done, but trying to do it on the national stage - and being at the whim of the media who have not been giving them much airtime - does not suit the Lib Dem's strengths. Farron has been rebuilding them using their strengths: for instance lots of supporters on the ground who needed enthusing after the trauma of 2015.
There are opportunities for the Lib Dems in this post-Brexit world, and the work he's done has put them in a good place to take advantage of them. Having said that, if they do I'm unlikely to vote for them ...
Didn't see a single poster.
If you live in Tuscany or Bolognia you vote socialist, if you live in the North or South you vote for the dominant Anti-Socialist party.
Occasionally the socialists win but only if there is no dominant anti-socialist party in the North, with the second round electoral reform it dooms the socialists since the anti-socialists can easily find the dominant party in the second round.
Not sure why it would be awkward for any of the men, though.
I just wonder if logic comes into this kind of contest.
If they wanted to show that they were still angry then voting UKIP might feel better. And while Sleaford isn't Richmond, even there there will be a number of people who normally vote Tory who want to protest against Brexit by voting Lib Dem. There might not be many, but even a couple of thousand might be enough to bring the winning post into UKIP's range.
If the british people only knew when we joined the common market that it turned into a political union where we tranfer political powers abroad and we open our borders to millions of immigrants,wouldn't the moderates then think that was extreme..
It's people like you who have been brain washed into thinking of this new extreme.
Berlusconi and Salvini are against euro membership for different reasons, for either big industry or nationalism.
All 3 cover all bases needed to move Italy out: Lefty Students, the Poor, the Industrialists, the Nationalists, all their interests align on this one issue.
In Italy when a Naples-Milan political axis forms it is very powerful.
Those who seek to denigrate a traditional nuclear family mindset are seriously missing the point here.
But we weren't - we had been shattered not just by the GE but by years of local losses. We needed to rebuild from the ground up and we needed an activist to lead us so Tim was the only choice just as Paddy had been the only choice in the post-merger election of 1989.
Tim has the energy and the drive, no question. That's what the party needs now more than a detailed policy programme.
Carter: no public statements on the election due to ill health, an appearance may be unlikely.
Bush H.W.: Hates Trump for what he did to W. and Jeb, although he bowed to Trump after his victory.
Clinton: Best friends with Trump until the election, they probably shared a few supermodels, relationship certainly frosty and complicated from the campaign, will Hillary make an appearance ?
Bush W.: Hates Trump because he accused him of being behind 9/11 and invading Iraq for the oil, and for what he did to Jeb, but he too has bowed to Trump after his victory.
Obama: Buried the hatchet of war, he wants to stay close to Trump to influence him politically.
I don't claim to be an expert but is Austrian bloke really far right? I've heard he's very hostile to Islam but is he really on the Le Pen/Gilders scale let alone Hitler?
"the Italian constitution prohibits referendums on the abrogation of laws ratifying international treaties, and the jurisprudence that has developed over the years has extended the prohibition to the laws that give effect to such treaties.
That means that in order to hold a euro membership referendum, it would probably first be necessary to secure a revision of the constitution, and for that to be possible, it would be necessary to win two positive votes in each chamber of parliament at intervals of not less than three months"
So, assume M5S is the biggest party following the elections in 2018, that means we're realistically looking at a 2020 Euro referendum.
2.379 / 7.998 municipalities reported so far
Turnout at 56%
Polls close at 11 PM, Italian time
and Melania.
(one day I'll get the name right!)