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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In the week the Article 50 case is heard before the Supreme Co

SystemSystem Posts: 12,265
edited December 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In the week the Article 50 case is heard before the Supreme Court, the public has more than three times the trust in judges than journalists

81% of the public have trust in the enemies of the people, just 24% have trust in journalists @IpsosMORI finds https://t.co/RhdrJI6BYj pic.twitter.com/THZUzyOJ50

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    edited December 2016
    First....again!
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Second, like Zac
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,944
    Third like UKIP or Labour?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited December 2016
    surbiton said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    logical_song said:

    David_Evershed said:

    theakes said:

    David Evershed: Lib Dems say had at least 50 helpers yesterday at Sleaford, expecting more today, they have had a local base team in place for 3 weeks, expect to deliver at least 3 leafelets to most of the population by the election day, including the usual " controversial "paper". Believe Farron has been since Thursday.


    Sleaford etc Lib Dems seem to have missed the postal voter by a couple of weeks and 50 helpers yesterday compares unfavourably with over 1000 one Richmond weekend.
    Last year GE, LibDem 5.7%, UKIP 15.7% in strong Leave constituency
    UKIP claiming they can win, so expect LibDem vote to be squeezed and deposit lost?
    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/739585/ukip-byelection-sleaford-north-hykeham-victoria-ayling-richmond-park-sarah-olney
    The Constituency was 38% Remain, and LDs were in second place in 2010. Obviously not getting the attention of Richmond, but the same goes for other parties. Have any party bigwigs been for any party? Farron is there this weekend I think.
    Living in the constituency I can certainly say the whole event seems very low key indeed.
    Good for the LDs. They should play their Remain card. Odd that it may seem. Even Corbyn's candidate is a Leaver , I am told.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited December 2016
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/805278955150471168
    WRONNNGGGGGGGGGGGGGG.........
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    TSE to UKIP up to 500,000,000,000/1 on BetFair now :lol:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    When are we expecting to know the results from Italy and Austria?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Wow in the FA....3-0 to 3-3 in 5 mins.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Re last thread - good riddance. Can someone give him a helpful shove.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Hardly Surprising

    Given Boris never said the things that the media and Remainers were foaming at the mouth over last week and castigating him in front page headlines.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/03/plot-sabotage-boris-johnsons-plan-brexit/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    No doubt full retractions wil be placed on the same front pages but I somehow i Doubt it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Moses_ said:

    Hardly Surprising

    Given Boris never said the things that the media and Remainers were foaming at the mouth over last week and castigating him in front page headlines.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/03/plot-sabotage-boris-johnsons-plan-brexit/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    No doubt full retractions wil be placed on the same front pages but I somehow i Doubt it.

    Bloody Fake News...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,164
    I'm shocked, shocked I tell you. This poll has to be wrong at the bottom end. It's not possible almost one person in four trusts a journalist. The suggestion is ludicrous.

    There must be some inaccuracy at the top as well, because we all know how naturally brilliant teachers are :smiley:
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,112
    edited December 2016
    Moses_ said:

    Hardly Surprising

    Given Boris never said the things that the media and Remainers were foaming at the mouth over last week and castigating him in front page headlines.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/03/plot-sabotage-boris-johnsons-plan-brexit/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    No doubt full retractions wil be placed on the same front pages but I somehow i Doubt it.

    "Fake but Accurate" which really means "Fake but I like what it says"

    Ask Greenpeace about the Brent Spar...
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    When are we expecting to know the results from Italy and Austria?

    Austria: late evening I believe unless it's really close.

    Italy: I don't know, but the proposed amendment appears quite dangerous so I rather hope it's lost.

    Italy allegedly has 'too many checks and balances'. Living in the UK, I'd quite like to have more. PR for a country's main chamber doesn't seem quite enough; look at the SNP in Scotland.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited December 2016
    rural_voter said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    When are we expecting to know the results from Italy and Austria?

    Austria: late evening I believe unless it's really close.

    You mean if they need to find a load of postal votes from down the back of the sofa.....

  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,764
    Moses_ said:

    Hardly Surprising

    Given Boris never said the things that the media and Remainers were foaming at the mouth over last week and castigating him in front page headlines.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/03/plot-sabotage-boris-johnsons-plan-brexit/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    No doubt full retractions wil be placed on the same front pages but I somehow i Doubt it.

    I see that report cites the shadowy figure of Lord Mandelson and some mysterious pro-EU 'think tank' as behind the ongoing plot to blacken Boris's name. With Mandelson and dark and sinister think tanks, they're certainly pushing the right buttons for the Telegraph readership. Nevertheless, this is probably just a damage-limitation exercise by Boris's staff, who realize their man dropped a blooper.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719
    rural_voter said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    When are we expecting to know the results from Italy and Austria?

    Austria: late evening I believe unless it's really close.

    Italy: I don't know, but the proposed amendment appears quite dangerous so I rather hope it's lost.

    Italy allegedly has 'too many checks and balances'. Living in the UK, I'd quite like to have more. PR for a country's main chamber doesn't seem quite enough; look at the SNP in Scotland.
    What about the SNP in Scotland, they are doing very well for a minority government despite the worst efforts of the unionists who would wreck the country before agreeing with any policy of the SNP. Issue in UK is that Westminster has a veto on Scotland, far too much power in the hands of a few donkeys.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,112
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Moses_ said:

    Hardly Surprising

    Given Boris never said the things that the media and Remainers were foaming at the mouth over last week and castigating him in front page headlines.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/03/plot-sabotage-boris-johnsons-plan-brexit/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    No doubt full retractions wil be placed on the same front pages but I somehow i Doubt it.

    I see that report cites the shadowy figure of Lord Mandelson and some mysterious pro-EU 'think tank' as behind the ongoing plot to blacken Boris's name. With Mandelson and dark and sinister think tanks, they're certainly pushing the right buttons for the Telegraph readership. Nevertheless, this is probably just a damage-limitation exercise by Boris's staff, who realize their man dropped a blooper.
    Apart from the bit where EU diplomats are themselves saying the stories are not true. That is the embarrassing bit...
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    I am amazed 24% trust journalists.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Is Austria and Italy both on today ?

    Anyone got websites or know any smoke signals ?
  • tim80tim80 Posts: 99
    edited December 2016
    Zzzzzz

    Is there any other occupation whose participants are so prissy and self-important as the Bar?

    A couple of day's headlines in a couple of newspapers that would have been long forgotten were it not for it continually being dragged up by a few.

    The hounding of Liz Truss was particularly unpleasant (and, I'd suggest, at least in part motivated by snobbery at her not being a lawyer). Let's hope the legal establishment and its allies behave with little more respect this time round.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited December 2016
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    When are we expecting to know the results from Italy and Austria?

    Austria could take a couple days if close, counting is slow. As for Italy voting ends 11pm their time, so probably not going to know til the early hours of the morning.

    Not that my predictions have been going completely well this year, but I have a funny feeling it will be VDB and Yes based on where is turning out in the respective elections.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/805278955150471168
    WRONNNGGGGGGGGGGGGGG.........

    But the funniest sketch was the hunt for Hill.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KiKzqKvkvvM
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    brokenwheel said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    When are we expecting to know the results from Italy and Austria?

    Austria could take a couple days if close, counting is slow. As for Italy voting ends 11pm their time, so probably not going to know til the early hours of the morning.

    Not that my predictions have been going completely well this year, but I have a funny feeling it will be VDB and Yes based on where is turning out in the respective elections.
    Where is yr turnout data from ?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726
    edited December 2016
    Kind of sad to see trust in judges behind that of teachers and nurses. This is no slight on either of those professions but trust in our Judiciary is fundemental to the whole operation of our democracy.

    Nor do I think the fault for this lies with the Judiciary. We need to make it clearer to everyone that when the law is being an ass that is usually because of the way the politicians have created the law rather than what the judges are doing in enforcing it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    edited December 2016
    malcolmg said:

    rural_voter said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    When are we expecting to know the results from Italy and Austria?

    Austria: late evening I believe unless it's really close.

    Italy: I don't know, but the proposed amendment appears quite dangerous so I rather hope it's lost.

    Italy allegedly has 'too many checks and balances'. Living in the UK, I'd quite like to have more. PR for a country's main chamber doesn't seem quite enough; look at the SNP in Scotland.
    What about the SNP in Scotland, they are doing very well for a minority government despite the worst efforts of the unionists who would wreck the country before agreeing with any policy of the SNP. Issue in UK is that Westminster has a veto on Scotland, far too much power in the hands of a few donkeys.
    I think any objective observer has to credit the SNP - they're well ahead in the political maturity stakes during a particularly immature year, and i know from my Scottish friend (who is not a nationalist by any means) how Sturgeon has managed to surpass Salmond in terms of respect and affection from her electorate. And they have done the rest of us a huge favour in being the first to expose the bankruptcy of Labour's machine politics. And they have that guy from Westminster I can't remember who, whilst having the demeanour of someone offering to measure you up for a particularly over-priced suit, generally seems to have something intelligent and pertinent to say.

    It isn't immediately obvious, however, where the SNP goes from here, given how boxed in they are by the myriad external constraints on their country?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,164
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Kind of sad to see trust in judges behind that of teachers and nurses. This is no slight on either of those professions but trust in our Judiciary is fundemental to the whole operation of our democracy.

    Nor do I think the fault for this lies with the Judiciary. We need to make it vlearer to everyone that when the law is being an ass that is usually because of the way the politicians have created the law rather than what the judges are doing in enforcing it.

    David Eady and his injunctions probably didn't help very much.

    But more to the point, most people will know nurses, GPs and teachers personally and have benefitted from their help and advice in tough times. How many people know judges? And of those who do, probably 50% come away feeling hard done by (Google 'Carmarthen Planning Tugandhat' for an extreme example).
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited December 2016
    So politicians are trusted less than estate agents, many of whom can't say a sentence without lying. I once spoke with an estate agent who on turning up four hours late for an appointment swore blind, with an oh-so-honest look on his cocky face, that he hadn't. "You'r four hours late." "No I'm not."

    But how much weight should be given to respondents' own statements about who they trust? Many people say they aren't influenced by advertisements much too. It's funny that so much money gets spent on advertising then. And quite a lot of house buyers get conned into agreeing loan "deals" that are pushed down their throats by estate agents.

    Pollsters are uncreative. They ask the same old crappy questions, occasionally spiced up with one about underpants. Which is great for bettors who take our time to come to a decision and don't just follow the polls :)

    How about finding some objective measure of the amount of trust that's enjoyed by different types of public personage? Question Time gets large audiences. Is it pleasurable to listen to liars spinning their shtick?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Dromedary said:

    Question Time gets large audiences. Is it pleasurable to listen to liars spinning their shtick?

    No, but as a loyal fan base for a crappy football team shows, people value cheering for their team.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    MTimT said:

    Dromedary said:

    Question Time gets large audiences. Is it pleasurable to listen to liars spinning their shtick?

    No, but as a loyal fan base for a crappy football team shows, people value cheering for their team.
    You can't change your home team though.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    brokenwheel said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    When are we expecting to know the results from Italy and Austria?

    Austria could take a couple days if close, counting is slow. As for Italy voting ends 11pm their time, so probably not going to know til the early hours of the morning.

    Not that my predictions have been going completely well this year, but I have a funny feeling it will be VDB and Yes based on where is turning out in the respective elections.
    Without any real knowledge, I think it will be a NO and the bigot will win in Austria.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    rural_voter said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    When are we expecting to know the results from Italy and Austria?

    Austria: late evening I believe unless it's really close.

    Italy: I don't know, but the proposed amendment appears quite dangerous so I rather hope it's lost.

    Italy allegedly has 'too many checks and balances'. Living in the UK, I'd quite like to have more. PR for a country's main chamber doesn't seem quite enough; look at the SNP in Scotland.
    The majority bonus is way out on the other side of FPTP from PR. If Grillo wins today's vote - and those are the terms in which many Italians view it - the majority bonus is toast but instability will increase either way.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    It was suggested above that, since the two front runners at Sleaford in 2015 were the Tories and UKIP, the Lib Dem vote could be squeezed.

    The difficulty with this idea is that Mrs May has now adopted the UKIP platform, lock, stock and barrel. These two parties are now indistinguishable. There is small choice in rotten apples.

    Before the Lib Dems became tarnished because of their association with the Conservatives in the Coalition Government, the Lib Dems came second in this constituency. Following Richmond, I would expect them to come at least second this time. There is currently quite a lot of good will towards the Lib Dems.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited December 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    brokenwheel said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    When are we expecting to know the results from Italy and Austria?

    Austria could take a couple days if close, counting is slow. As for Italy voting ends 11pm their time, so probably not going to know til the early hours of the morning.

    Not that my predictions have been going completely well this year, but I have a funny feeling it will be VDB and Yes based on where is turning out in the respective elections.
    Where is yr turnout data from ?
    Nothing solid on Austria just feeling. As for Italy still trying to confirm the breakdown of the midday turnout. In fact I may have been a bit hasty on that one, if the figures are true turnout is bad in the south (No stronghold) but correspondingly turnout appears best in the Northeast, the other NO stronghold.

  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    59 left...

    Lisa Daftari
    BREAKING: Pentagon announces transfer from Guantanamo of Yemeni prisoner Shawqi Awad Balzuhair to Cape Verde; 59 detainees remain https://t.co/LNwaY6fziW
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    PClipp said:

    It was suggested above that, since the two front runners at Sleaford in 2015 were the Tories and UKIP, the Lib Dem vote could be squeezed.

    The difficulty with this idea is that Mrs May has now adopted the UKIP platform, lock, stock and barrel. These two parties are now indistinguishable. There is small choice in rotten apples.

    Before the Lib Dems became tarnished because of their association with the Conservatives in the Coalition Government, the Lib Dems came second in this constituency. Following Richmond, I would expect them to come at least second this time. There is currently quite a lot of good will towards the Lib Dems.

    All more evidence that Labour is truly stuck. They see the political world through the prism of collective interest groups; their historical task being to build a majority by way of assembling a coalition of interest groups that will deliver the necessary votes. But they now find that the interests of the various groups they have been courting are mutually incompatible, and they are as a consequence paralysed to take any sort of decision on any major issue now facing the country.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,164
    edited December 2016
    PClipp said:

    It was suggested above that, since the two front runners at Sleaford in 2015 were the Tories and UKIP, the Lib Dem vote could be squeezed.

    The difficulty with this idea is that Mrs May has now adopted the UKIP platform, lock, stock and barrel. These two parties are now indistinguishable. There is small choice in rotten apples.

    Before the Lib Dems became tarnished because of their association with the Conservatives in the Coalition Government, the Lib Dems came second in this constituency. Following Richmond, I would expect them to come at least second this time. There is currently quite a lot of good will towards the Lib Dems.

    They could easily take the entire Remain vote more or less faute de mieux. Who else would remainers in England vote for, after all? The only other party with more than a lukewarm commitment to the EU are the Greens, who make Corbyn look sane, wise and efficient.

    That could offer them a way back to national relevance, but at the same time it is hard to see them supplanting Labour, never mind the Tories, on such a narrow prospectus. They need a message on jobs and housing, if we're honest, to do that.

    Admittedly no other party has them, but the Conservatives have the huge advantage of being there and in government, while what Labour does is sadly now more or less ignored.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 894
    edited December 2016
    Today - Italy & Austria

    Afternoon all, hope you're all well and ready for what could be another important election day!

    Polls close at 4pm GMT in Austria (one of the earliest anywhere) and at 10pm GMT in Italy (the latest anywhere!). If anybody knows why Italy closes so ridiculously late I'd be interested to know!

    I'm going to have a dig around for Italy links but here are the key ones for Austria:

    Official results (available from 5pm, currently shows the 1st round):

    http://wahl16.bmi.gv.at/

    Another results site, currently shows the original 2nd round, with great maps if you scroll down:

    http://visual.apa.at/presidential/

    TV coverage, programme starts 3.30 GMT on ORF2:

    http://tvthek.orf.at/live

    Betfair:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.128365078

    (VdB was 3.45 late last night, big move into 1.67! Hofer still 1.43, not a 100% market!)

    Today will just be the polling station count, Vorarlberg closed at 12pm GMT and will be the first state to declare, there should be a national exit poll at 4.10/15 or so UK time.

    VdB got 58.59% in Vorarlberg in the original 2nd round - note that this result includes the postal ballots.

    Postal ballots won't be counted until tomorrow and will be done very carefully this time (postal ballot irregularities forced this re-run).

    Postals should favour VdB and Hofer may need well over 51% of the polling station count to be able to win the election.

    Ok now off to try and find some Italy links, please post if you have any, esp TV coverage and official results!

    Thanks!

    DC
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    brokenwheel said:

    Pulpstar said:

    brokenwheel said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    When are we expecting to know the results from Italy and Austria?

    Austria could take a couple days if close, counting is slow. As for Italy voting ends 11pm their time, so probably not going to know til the early hours of the morning.

    Not that my predictions have been going completely well this year, but I have a funny feeling it will be VDB and Yes based on where is turning out in the respective elections.
    Where is yr turnout data from ?
    Nothing solid on Austria just feeling. As for Italy still trying to confirm the breakdown of the midday turnout. In fact I may have been a bit hasty on that one, if the figures are true turnout is bad in the south (No stronghold) but correspondingly turnout appears best in the Northeast, the other NO stronghold.

    Found it, from the Italian interior ministry;

    http://elezioni.interno.it/referendum/votanti/20161204/FI01votanti.htm
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,164
    edited December 2016
    Selby and Ronnie giving a master class in what last night's Strictly was: missing Balls.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Cheers for the links, Mr. Carpet.

    F1: suggestions of a quick decision on Hamilton's team mate, which is no surprise given the timetable:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/38199637
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    Breitbart: "Polls Open In Austria and Italy For Anti-Establishment Votes That May Decide Future of European Union".

    Sure you're not laying it on too thick, guys?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. Dromedary, that's the difference between pundits and punters. Pundits make money by stoking interest. Punters make money by being right.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    ydoethur said:

    PClipp said:

    It was suggested above that, since the two front runners at Sleaford in 2015 were the Tories and UKIP, the Lib Dem vote could be squeezed.

    The difficulty with this idea is that Mrs May has now adopted the UKIP platform, lock, stock and barrel. These two parties are now indistinguishable. There is small choice in rotten apples.

    Before the Lib Dems became tarnished because of their association with the Conservatives in the Coalition Government, the Lib Dems came second in this constituency. Following Richmond, I would expect them to come at least second this time. There is currently quite a lot of good will towards the Lib Dems.

    They could easily take the entire Remain vote more or less faute de mieux. Who else would remainers in England vote for, after all? The only other party with more than a lukewarm commitment to the EU are the Greens, who make Corbyn look sane, wise and efficient.

    That could offer them a way back to national relevance, but at the same time it is hard to see them supplanting Labour, never mind the Tories, on such a narrow prospectus. They need a message on jobs and housing, if we're honest, to do that.

    Admittedly no other party has them, but the Conservatives have the huge advantage of being there and in government, while what Labour does is sadly now more or less ignored.
    There is no evidence that UKIP are challenging for 2nd place let alone the Conservatives for first place . The UKIP campaign is bereft of both money and helpers on the ground . I expect the Labour vote to be little changed from GE 2015 and Marianne Overton to poll well .
    The Lib Dems have historical strength in the North Hykeham area but have always polled poorly in the Sleaford bulk of the seat . I would expect the Lib Dems to concentrate their efforts in North Hykeham and increase their vote share from 2015 just into double figures ,
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    ydoethur said:

    PClipp said:

    It was suggested above that, since the two front runners at Sleaford in 2015 were the Tories and UKIP, the Lib Dem vote could be squeezed.

    The difficulty with this idea is that Mrs May has now adopted the UKIP platform, lock, stock and barrel. These two parties are now indistinguishable. There is small choice in rotten apples.

    Before the Lib Dems became tarnished because of their association with the Conservatives in the Coalition Government, the Lib Dems came second in this constituency. Following Richmond, I would expect them to come at least second this time. There is currently quite a lot of good will towards the Lib Dems.

    They could easily take the entire Remain vote more or less faute de mieux. Who else would remainers in England vote for, after all? The only other party with more than a lukewarm commitment to the EU are the Greens, who make Corbyn look sane, wise and efficient.

    That could offer them a way back to national relevance, but at the same time it is hard to see them supplanting Labour, never mind the Tories, on such a narrow prospectus. They need a message on jobs and housing, if we're honest, to do that.

    Admittedly no other party has them, but the Conservatives have the huge advantage of being there and in government, while what Labour does is sadly now more or less ignored.
    Surely at least the Greens or L.D.s are solidly pro-EU whilst Labour has three policies:

    * Dennis Skinner, Gisela Stuart or Frank Field - Leave on any terms
    * Corbyn and McDonnell - go along with soft BREXIT to keep the party more united and for fear of coming out as Leavers
    * Blair and Mandelson - want a United States of Europe. Not sure of Ken Livingstone but he's dramatically changed his mind since 1975.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 894
    brokenwheel said:

    brokenwheel said:

    Pulpstar said:

    brokenwheel said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    When are we expecting to know the results from Italy and Austria?

    Austria could take a couple days if close, counting is slow. As for Italy voting ends 11pm their time, so probably not going to know til the early hours of the morning.

    Not that my predictions have been going completely well this year, but I have a funny feeling it will be VDB and Yes based on where is turning out in the respective elections.
    Where is yr turnout data from ?
    Nothing solid on Austria just feeling. As for Italy still trying to confirm the breakdown of the midday turnout. In fact I may have been a bit hasty on that one, if the figures are true turnout is bad in the south (No stronghold) but correspondingly turnout appears best in the Northeast, the other NO stronghold.

    Found it, from the Italian interior ministry;

    http://elezioni.interno.it/referendum/votanti/20161204/FI01votanti.htm
    Ah thanks brokenwheel you're a ledge!
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited December 2016
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Kind of sad to see trust in judges behind that of teachers and nurses. This is no slight on either of those professions but trust in our Judiciary is fundemental to the whole operation of our democracy.

    Nor do I think the fault for this lies with the Judiciary. We need to make it clearer to everyone that when the law is being an ass that is usually because of the way the politicians have created the law rather than what the judges are doing in enforcing it.

    In computer technology street jargon apparently Hunter Thompson's phrase "fear and loathing" means:

    "A state inspired by the prospect of dealing with certain real-world systems and standards that are totally brain-damaged but ubiquitous."

    I'm beginning to wonder if that also applies to us these days to cowboys riding the bronco "populism".
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    edited December 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    59 left...

    Lisa Daftari
    BREAKING: Pentagon announces transfer from Guantanamo of Yemeni prisoner Shawqi Awad Balzuhair to Cape Verde; 59 detainees remain https://t.co/LNwaY6fziW

    ...and considering how many of those released have been caught out killing again, those 59 are going to be the real hard core bastards.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Dixie said:

    brokenwheel said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    When are we expecting to know the results from Italy and Austria?

    Austria could take a couple days if close, counting is slow. As for Italy voting ends 11pm their time, so probably not going to know til the early hours of the morning.

    Not that my predictions have been going completely well this year, but I have a funny feeling it will be VDB and Yes based on where is turning out in the respective elections.
    Without any real knowledge, I think it will be a NO and the bigot will win in Austria.
    Just because Bellend is in the Greens I'm not sure it's fair that you assume he's a bigot.
    Actually, thinking about Greenery, you're almost certainly right.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Pulpstar said:

    MTimT said:

    Dromedary said:

    Question Time gets large audiences. Is it pleasurable to listen to liars spinning their shtick?

    No, but as a loyal fan base for a crappy football team shows, people value cheering for their team.
    You can't change your home team though.
    Yes you can. Move to another city, chose another sport, play fantasy football. Any number of ways.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    MTimT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MTimT said:

    Dromedary said:

    Question Time gets large audiences. Is it pleasurable to listen to liars spinning their shtick?

    No, but as a loyal fan base for a crappy football team shows, people value cheering for their team.
    You can't change your home team though.
    Yes you can. Move to another city, chose another sport, play fantasy football. Any number of ways.
    Or just vote SNP, UKIP or LibDem just the once...
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Dromedary, that's the difference between pundits and punters. Pundits make money by stoking interest. Punters make money by being right.

    Why I come to this site.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    MTimT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MTimT said:

    Dromedary said:

    Question Time gets large audiences. Is it pleasurable to listen to liars spinning their shtick?

    No, but as a loyal fan base for a crappy football team shows, people value cheering for their team.
    You can't change your home team though.
    Yes you can. Move to another city, chose another sport, play fantasy football. Any number of ways.
    Support professional team that relocates franchise a la https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Relocation_of_professional_sports_teams
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    GeoffM said:

    Dixie said:

    brokenwheel said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    When are we expecting to know the results from Italy and Austria?

    Austria could take a couple days if close, counting is slow. As for Italy voting ends 11pm their time, so probably not going to know til the early hours of the morning.

    Not that my predictions have been going completely well this year, but I have a funny feeling it will be VDB and Yes based on where is turning out in the respective elections.
    Without any real knowledge, I think it will be a NO and the bigot will win in Austria.
    Just because Bellend is in the Greens I'm not sure it's fair that you assume he's a bigot.
    Actually, thinking about Greenery, you're almost certainly right.
    Looking at the turnout so far the Greens will win in Austria, NO will win in Italy.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,164
    rural_voter said:

    ydoethur said:

    PClipp said:

    It was suggested above that, since the two front runners at Sleaford in 2015 were the Tories and UKIP, the Lib Dem vote could be squeezed.

    The difficulty with this idea is that Mrs May has now adopted the UKIP platform, lock, stock and barrel. These two parties are now indistinguishable. There is small choice in rotten apples.

    Before the Lib Dems became tarnished because of their association with the Conservatives in the Coalition Government, the Lib Dems came second in this constituency. Following Richmond, I would expect them to come at least second this time. There is currently quite a lot of good will towards the Lib Dems.

    They could easily take the entire Remain vote more or less faute de mieux. Who else would remainers in England vote for, after all? The only other party with more than a lukewarm commitment to the EU are the Greens, who make Corbyn look sane, wise and efficient.

    That could offer them a way back to national relevance, but at the same time it is hard to see them supplanting Labour, never mind the Tories, on such a narrow prospectus. They need a message on jobs and housing, if we're honest, to do that.

    Admittedly no other party has them, but the Conservatives have the huge advantage of being there and in government, while what Labour does is sadly now more or less ignored.
    Surely at least the Greens or L.D.s are solidly pro-EU whilst Labour has three policies:

    * Dennis Skinner, Gisela Stuart or Frank Field - Leave on any terms
    * Corbyn and McDonnell - go along with soft BREXIT to keep the party more united and for fear of coming out as Leavers
    * Blair and Mandelson - want a United States of Europe. Not sure of Ken Livingstone but he's dramatically changed his mind since 1975.
    Yes but to normal voters, not politics geeks like us, what matters more - Europe, or a secure job with a decent wage and a nice house to live in with your family? Not a hard question to answer, is it?

    That's not a hard question to answer and I genuinely believe that offers a chance to Farron if he is bright enough to take it.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 894
    Speedy VdB is 3.05 on BF if you are confident enough to have a punt....
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Wow, I had thought that was a peculiarly US thing, apparently not so.
    PlatoSaid said:

    MTimT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MTimT said:

    Dromedary said:

    Question Time gets large audiences. Is it pleasurable to listen to liars spinning their shtick?

    No, but as a loyal fan base for a crappy football team shows, people value cheering for their team.
    You can't change your home team though.
    Yes you can. Move to another city, chose another sport, play fantasy football. Any number of ways.
    Support professional team that relocates franchise a la https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Relocation_of_professional_sports_teams
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 894
    edited December 2016
    RAI news 24:

    http://www.freeintertv.com/view/id-1711

    RAI Uno:

    https://www.firstonetv.eu/en/stream/it/31
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    DoubleCarpet said:

    Speedy VdB is 3.05 on BF if you are confident enough to have a punt....

    Didn't VdB get 50% of vote last time. Has opinion changed that much in 3 months?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Ahem
    Alistair said:

    Bournemouth are going to thrash Liverpool today, I can feel it.

    Wish I was this good at US presidential elections.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    GeoffM said:

    Dixie said:

    brokenwheel said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    When are we expecting to know the results from Italy and Austria?

    Austria could take a couple days if close, counting is slow. As for Italy voting ends 11pm their time, so probably not going to know til the early hours of the morning.

    Not that my predictions have been going completely well this year, but I have a funny feeling it will be VDB and Yes based on where is turning out in the respective elections.
    Without any real knowledge, I think it will be a NO and the bigot will win in Austria.
    Just because Bellend is in the Greens I'm not sure it's fair that you assume he's a bigot.
    Actually, thinking about Greenery, you're almost certainly right.
    The bigot is the other geezer.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Dixie said:

    GeoffM said:

    Dixie said:

    brokenwheel said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    When are we expecting to know the results from Italy and Austria?

    Austria could take a couple days if close, counting is slow. As for Italy voting ends 11pm their time, so probably not going to know til the early hours of the morning.

    Not that my predictions have been going completely well this year, but I have a funny feeling it will be VDB and Yes based on where is turning out in the respective elections.
    Without any real knowledge, I think it will be a NO and the bigot will win in Austria.
    Just because Bellend is in the Greens I'm not sure it's fair that you assume he's a bigot.
    Actually, thinking about Greenery, you're almost certainly right.
    The bigot is the other geezer.
    and of course a bigot is what the opposite will call any successful politician.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. Dixie, he got 150% in some areas...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,917
    Speedy said:

    GeoffM said:

    Dixie said:

    brokenwheel said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    When are we expecting to know the results from Italy and Austria?

    Austria could take a couple days if close, counting is slow. As for Italy voting ends 11pm their time, so probably not going to know til the early hours of the morning.

    Not that my predictions have been going completely well this year, but I have a funny feeling it will be VDB and Yes based on where is turning out in the respective elections.
    Without any real knowledge, I think it will be a NO and the bigot will win in Austria.
    Just because Bellend is in the Greens I'm not sure it's fair that you assume he's a bigot.
    Actually, thinking about Greenery, you're almost certainly right.
    Looking at the turnout so far the Greens will win in Austria, NO will win in Italy.

    I suspect, and I could be wrong, that No will win by at least 10 points in Italy. Most of the Centre Left, Pro-EU, types I know are voting No, because they think that the reforms would strengthen M5S.

    What Italy really needs, but doesn't have, is a sensible Eurosceptic centre right party, untainted by the corruption of Berlusconi. Right now, there is Lega Nord, Us with Salvini, and Forza Italia, each with their little strongholds, but no meaningful likelihood any of them will get anywhere neat the levers of power.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    PClipp said:

    It was suggested above that, since the two front runners at Sleaford in 2015 were the Tories and UKIP, the Lib Dem vote could be squeezed.

    The difficulty with this idea is that Mrs May has now adopted the UKIP platform, lock, stock and barrel. These two parties are now indistinguishable. There is small choice in rotten apples.

    Before the Lib Dems became tarnished because of their association with the Conservatives in the Coalition Government, the Lib Dems came second in this constituency. Following Richmond, I would expect them to come at least second this time. There is currently quite a lot of good will towards the Lib Dems.

    Libs have grown share in every election since 2015 GE. So, they will get a few points of least. Labour will lost a few points. UKIP is tough to know. Clearly the Tory MP resigning is taking the piss. Therefore, I think turnout will be low. But I don't think UKIP will get any momentum.

    Tories, 1st, Libs 2nd, UKIP, 3rd, Lab, 4th. Success will depend on who gains shares. Libs will. The rest...who knows. (I'm often wrong).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,917
    Dromedary said:

    Breitbart: "Polls Open In Austria and Italy For Anti-Establishment Votes That May Decide Future of European Union".

    Sure you're not laying it on too thick, guys?

    The great irony about Italy being that it is likely to vote for the status quo.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,164
    If you did not see that last frame and Selby's superb cannon shot - then you missed a treat.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    On another note Trump still is pushing for his tariffs, which the President can unilaterally impose without congress:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/805380553008680961

    Mike Pence and Wilbur Ross are also on board with tariffs it seems.

    And Trump is drifting towards appointing the most pro-russian member of Congress as his secretary of state:

    https://twitter.com/dcexaminer/status/805193226038734848

    And it doesn't look like they are going to stop him:

    https://twitter.com/dcexaminer/status/805284516713656320
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Dixie said:

    Dixie said:

    GeoffM said:

    Dixie said:

    brokenwheel said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    When are we expecting to know the results from Italy and Austria?

    Austria could take a couple days if close, counting is slow. As for Italy voting ends 11pm their time, so probably not going to know til the early hours of the morning.

    Not that my predictions have been going completely well this year, but I have a funny feeling it will be VDB and Yes based on where is turning out in the respective elections.
    Without any real knowledge, I think it will be a NO and the bigot will win in Austria.
    Just because Bellend is in the Greens I'm not sure it's fair that you assume he's a bigot.
    Actually, thinking about Greenery, you're almost certainly right.
    The bigot is the other geezer.
    and of course a bigot is what the opposite will call any successful politician.
    Bigot is another addition to the Meaningless Shamefest Shutdown lexicon. Insults that once had great social currency, are now worth a fraction of a sheet of Venezuelan bog roll.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    General Election
    Austrian Presidential exit polls

    Hofer 53.5%
    Bellen 46.5%
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,382
    Dixie said:

    Dixie said:

    GeoffM said:

    Dixie said:

    brokenwheel said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    When are we expecting to know the results from Italy and Austria?

    Austria could take a couple days if close, counting is slow. As for Italy voting ends 11pm their time, so probably not going to know til the early hours of the morning.

    Not that my predictions have been going completely well this year, but I have a funny feeling it will be VDB and Yes based on where is turning out in the respective elections.
    Without any real knowledge, I think it will be a NO and the bigot will win in Austria.
    Just because Bellend is in the Greens I'm not sure it's fair that you assume he's a bigot.
    Actually, thinking about Greenery, you're almost certainly right.
    The bigot is the other geezer.
    and of course a bigot is what the opposite will call any successful politician.
    And Zac.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 894
    Vorarlberg:

    Van der Bellen 60.4%

    UP 2% on prev
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Dixie said:

    GeoffM said:

    Dixie said:

    brokenwheel said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    When are we expecting to know the results from Italy and Austria?

    Austria could take a couple days if close, counting is slow. As for Italy voting ends 11pm their time, so probably not going to know til the early hours of the morning.

    Not that my predictions have been going completely well this year, but I have a funny feeling it will be VDB and Yes based on where is turning out in the respective elections.
    Without any real knowledge, I think it will be a NO and the bigot will win in Austria.
    Just because Bellend is in the Greens I'm not sure it's fair that you assume he's a bigot.
    Actually, thinking about Greenery, you're almost certainly right.
    The bigot is the other geezer.
    Just like the racist is or the anti-Semite etc etc. These days they are only words to be idly bantered with. Nobody takes them seriously because they have been overused.
    Apologies, I don't think that point came across properly in my original comment.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Leftie lexicon: bigot, noun. Anyone with whom I disagree

    Actually, the real definition is ironic - it so aptly describes most of those who use the word currently:

    big·ot
    ˈbiɡət/
    noun
    a person who is intolerant toward those holding different opinions.
    PlatoSaid said:

    Dixie said:

    Dixie said:

    GeoffM said:

    Dixie said:

    brokenwheel said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    When are we expecting to know the results from Italy and Austria?

    Austria could take a couple days if close, counting is slow. As for Italy voting ends 11pm their time, so probably not going to know til the early hours of the morning.

    Not that my predictions have been going completely well this year, but I have a funny feeling it will be VDB and Yes based on where is turning out in the respective elections.
    Without any real knowledge, I think it will be a NO and the bigot will win in Austria.
    Just because Bellend is in the Greens I'm not sure it's fair that you assume he's a bigot.
    Actually, thinking about Greenery, you're almost certainly right.
    The bigot is the other geezer.
    and of course a bigot is what the opposite will call any successful politician.
    Bigot is another addition to the Meaningless Shamefest Shutdown lexicon. Insults that once had great social currency, are now worth a fraction of a sheet of Venezuelan bog roll.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 894
    Plato don't think that was the national exit poll, you got it round wrong way!!!

    VdB is 53.6%

    All the results are swinging Green.

    Hofer now 7 on BF if you think he's won.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    GeoffM said:

    Dixie said:

    brokenwheel said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    When are we expecting to know the results from Italy and Austria?

    Austria could take a couple days if close, counting is slow. As for Italy voting ends 11pm their time, so probably not going to know til the early hours of the morning.

    Not that my predictions have been going completely well this year, but I have a funny feeling it will be VDB and Yes based on where is turning out in the respective elections.
    Without any real knowledge, I think it will be a NO and the bigot will win in Austria.
    Just because Bellend is in the Greens I'm not sure it's fair that you assume he's a bigot.
    Actually, thinking about Greenery, you're almost certainly right.
    Looking at the turnout so far the Greens will win in Austria, NO will win in Italy.

    I suspect, and I could be wrong, that No will win by at least 10 points in Italy. Most of the Centre Left, Pro-EU, types I know are voting No, because they think that the reforms would strengthen M5S.

    What Italy really needs, but doesn't have, is a sensible Eurosceptic centre right party, untainted by the corruption of Berlusconi. Right now, there is Lega Nord, Us with Salvini, and Forza Italia, each with their little strongholds, but no meaningful likelihood any of them will get anywhere neat the levers of power.
    I would expect, given the increasing co-ordination and second round voter transfers, that Berlusconi and Salvini would team up with Grilo in the Senate on an a la cart euroskeptic basis.

    If there is going to be an election in Italy I would expect the Populists to win and form the government but would need the nationalists to pass legislation.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,917
    Dixie said:

    PClipp said:

    It was suggested above that, since the two front runners at Sleaford in 2015 were the Tories and UKIP, the Lib Dem vote could be squeezed.

    The difficulty with this idea is that Mrs May has now adopted the UKIP platform, lock, stock and barrel. These two parties are now indistinguishable. There is small choice in rotten apples.

    Before the Lib Dems became tarnished because of their association with the Conservatives in the Coalition Government, the Lib Dems came second in this constituency. Following Richmond, I would expect them to come at least second this time. There is currently quite a lot of good will towards the Lib Dems.

    Libs have grown share in every election since 2015 GE. So, they will get a few points of least. Labour will lost a few points. UKIP is tough to know. Clearly the Tory MP resigning is taking the piss. Therefore, I think turnout will be low. But I don't think UKIP will get any momentum.

    Tories, 1st, Libs 2nd, UKIP, 3rd, Lab, 4th. Success will depend on who gains shares. Libs will. The rest...who knows. (I'm often wrong).
    I would be very surprised if the Libs made it to second. I guess it's possible in a low turnout vote, where they are the only Remain option, but my money would be on them creeping back above 10% (but still seeing their absolute number of votes fall).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. Carpet, tasty for those who backed van der Bellen an hour ago at 3.

  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    PlatoSaid said:

    General Election
    Austrian Presidential exit polls

    Hofer 53.5%
    Bellen 46.5%

    Yeah, wrong way round...
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    GeoffM said:

    Dixie said:

    brokenwheel said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    When are we expecting to know the results from Italy and Austria?

    Austria could take a couple days if close, counting is slow. As for Italy voting ends 11pm their time, so probably not going to know til the early hours of the morning.

    Not that my predictions have been going completely well this year, but I have a funny feeling it will be VDB and Yes based on where is turning out in the respective elections.
    Without any real knowledge, I think it will be a NO and the bigot will win in Austria.
    Just because Bellend is in the Greens I'm not sure it's fair that you assume he's a bigot.
    Actually, thinking about Greenery, you're almost certainly right.
    Looking at the turnout so far the Greens will win in Austria, NO will win in Italy.

    I suspect, and I could be wrong, that No will win by at least 10 points in Italy. Most of the Centre Left, Pro-EU, types I know are voting No, because they think that the reforms would strengthen M5S.

    What Italy really needs, but doesn't have, is a sensible Eurosceptic centre right party, untainted by the corruption of Berlusconi. Right now, there is Lega Nord, Us with Salvini, and Forza Italia, each with their little strongholds, but no meaningful likelihood any of them will get anywhere neat the levers of power.
    I agree about Italy. All my acquaintances in the Italian Universities (pretty much uniformly left-wing) are voting no.

    I think No will win easily.

    It would be interesting to hear Andrea’s opinion, if he still reads pb.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited December 2016
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/805444265639903237

    Will Opinion Polls ever get it right ?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    brokenwheel said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    General Election
    Austrian Presidential exit polls

    Hofer 53.5%
    Bellen 46.5%

    Yeah, wrong way round...
    Fake news as ever from her.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 894
    edited December 2016
    Managed to win £20 going on the Vorarlberg result before the national exit poll came out!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. Fire, lots of posters have accidentally gotten figures wrong or posted information in error. It's easily done.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Question.

    Why do we need opinion polls if they never get either the result or the winner correct ?

    Anecdotal evidence and turnout are much more accurate than opinion polls, and much cheaper.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    rcs1000 said:

    Dixie said:

    PClipp said:

    It was suggested above that, since the two front runners at Sleaford in 2015 were the Tories and UKIP, the Lib Dem vote could be squeezed.

    The difficulty with this idea is that Mrs May has now adopted the UKIP platform, lock, stock and barrel. These two parties are now indistinguishable. There is small choice in rotten apples.

    Before the Lib Dems became tarnished because of their association with the Conservatives in the Coalition Government, the Lib Dems came second in this constituency. Following Richmond, I would expect them to come at least second this time. There is currently quite a lot of good will towards the Lib Dems.

    Libs have grown share in every election since 2015 GE. So, they will get a few points of least. Labour will lost a few points. UKIP is tough to know. Clearly the Tory MP resigning is taking the piss. Therefore, I think turnout will be low. But I don't think UKIP will get any momentum.

    Tories, 1st, Libs 2nd, UKIP, 3rd, Lab, 4th. Success will depend on who gains shares. Libs will. The rest...who knows. (I'm often wrong).
    I would be very surprised if the Libs made it to second. I guess it's possible in a low turnout vote, where they are the only Remain option, but my money would be on them creeping back above 10% (but still seeing their absolute number of votes fall).
    I think you are being a bit pessimistic there, Young Robert! Come on... Who did you think was going to win at Richmond? :)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Expect the trust number to drop, depending on the outcome. That the outcome won't stop Brexit no matter which way they decide will be irrelevant to media using it to distract.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,944
    rcs1000 said:

    Dixie said:

    PClipp said:

    It was suggested above that, since the two front runners at Sleaford in 2015 were the Tories and UKIP, the Lib Dem vote could be squeezed.

    The difficulty with this idea is that Mrs May has now adopted the UKIP platform, lock, stock and barrel. These two parties are now indistinguishable. There is small choice in rotten apples.

    Before the Lib Dems became tarnished because of their association with the Conservatives in the Coalition Government, the Lib Dems came second in this constituency. Following Richmond, I would expect them to come at least second this time. There is currently quite a lot of good will towards the Lib Dems.

    Libs have grown share in every election since 2015 GE. So, they will get a few points of least. Labour will lost a few points. UKIP is tough to know. Clearly the Tory MP resigning is taking the piss. Therefore, I think turnout will be low. But I don't think UKIP will get any momentum.

    Tories, 1st, Libs 2nd, UKIP, 3rd, Lab, 4th. Success will depend on who gains shares. Libs will. The rest...who knows. (I'm often wrong).
    I would be very surprised if the Libs made it to second. I guess it's possible in a low turnout vote, where they are the only Remain option, but my money would be on them creeping back above 10% (but still seeing their absolute number of votes fall).
    If Sleaford was Remain and the LibDems were in UKIPs shoes they would do very well, but it's 62% Leave and UKIP are on 16%, with LibDems under 6%.
    It's a mirror image of Richmond Park, UKIP should be in contention and the LibDems should be squeezed
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,917
    Speedy said:

    I would expect, given the increasing co-ordination and second round voter transfers, that Berlusconi and Salvini would team up with Grilo in the Senate on an a la cart euroskeptic basis.

    If there is going to be an election in Italy I would expect the Populists to win and form the government but would need the nationalists to pass legislation.

    That would have been my expectation, but Salvini populists and Grillo populists are very different beasts.

    Grillo populists are the kind of guys who had a Che Guvara poster on their wall at university, and indeed, a lot of them are university students. Their principle pitch is about corruption in Italy. They're not even really particularly Eurosceptic by EU standards (that applied for their MEP grouping to join the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats in Europe, but where rejected.) Really, their pitch is all on the Euro, and none at all really on the EU, and basically says "Germany must allow us to run deficits, and if we're not allowed, we'll run them anyway, and threaten a referendum on Euro membership." Their understanding of basic economics is sadly lacking. Grillo stood up recently in a speech and said (and I'm quoting slightly from memory): "Italy owes 120% of GDP. Who to? That's what I want to know?" Another point of departure from more right wing groupings: M5S believes the EU should distribute (lots of) migrant "humanitarian visas" at camps in Syria, so they can get to Europe by regular means, rathr than risking their lives crossing the medeterrenian.

    The Salvini populists are centre right populists. By and large you'd recognise them as the lower middle class losers from globalisation: the traders and the small business people. They are at complete odds with Grillo over immigration issues, and over government spending. They want a smaller state, by and large, not a bigger one. They think the issue is that the Italian government does too much, and wants to cut regulation.

    I genuinely think that a sensible centre right grouping would pass the DP in the polls, and would be the best for Italy. But right now, that option isn't really available to the people of Italy.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,382
    Speedy said:

    Question.

    Why do we need opinion polls if they never get either the result or the winner correct ?

    Anecdotal evidence and turnout are much more accurate than opinion polls, and much cheaper.

    Bugger all anecdotes about potential Green win in Austria as I recall.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,917
    PClipp said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dixie said:

    PClipp said:

    It was suggested above that, since the two front runners at Sleaford in 2015 were the Tories and UKIP, the Lib Dem vote could be squeezed.

    The difficulty with this idea is that Mrs May has now adopted the UKIP platform, lock, stock and barrel. These two parties are now indistinguishable. There is small choice in rotten apples.

    Before the Lib Dems became tarnished because of their association with the Conservatives in the Coalition Government, the Lib Dems came second in this constituency. Following Richmond, I would expect them to come at least second this time. There is currently quite a lot of good will towards the Lib Dems.

    Libs have grown share in every election since 2015 GE. So, they will get a few points of least. Labour will lost a few points. UKIP is tough to know. Clearly the Tory MP resigning is taking the piss. Therefore, I think turnout will be low. But I don't think UKIP will get any momentum.

    Tories, 1st, Libs 2nd, UKIP, 3rd, Lab, 4th. Success will depend on who gains shares. Libs will. The rest...who knows. (I'm often wrong).
    I would be very surprised if the Libs made it to second. I guess it's possible in a low turnout vote, where they are the only Remain option, but my money would be on them creeping back above 10% (but still seeing their absolute number of votes fall).
    I think you are being a bit pessimistic there, Young Robert! Come on... Who did you think was going to win at Richmond? :)
    The LDs going from fourth (almost fifth) to a good third place, with their vote share up 5%, is a good result for them.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    Looks as if polling firms' samples in Austria may have fouled up.

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/805444750635630597

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,739
    not_on_fire said:

    brokenwheel said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    General Election
    Austrian Presidential exit polls

    Hofer 53.5%
    Bellen 46.5%

    Yeah, wrong way round...
    Fake news as ever from her.
    She got the US election right, when most didn't.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    kle4 said:

    Expect the trust number to drop, depending on the outcome. That the outcome won't stop Brexit no matter which way they decide will be irrelevant to media using it to distract.

    Judges were not always trusted figures, when they made controversial decisions they often became figures of mistrust and ridicule:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kyos-M48B8U
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DJpY7eT6oNk
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    edited December 2016
    Sean_F said:

    not_on_fire said:

    brokenwheel said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    General Election
    Austrian Presidential exit polls

    Hofer 53.5%
    Bellen 46.5%

    Yeah, wrong way round...
    Fake news as ever from her.
    She got the US election right, when most didn't.
    Wrong. A week before the vote she said she had no idea who would win. There's been a lot of re-writing of history on that one.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,917
    logical_song said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dixie said:

    PClipp said:

    It was suggested above that, since the two front runners at Sleaford in 2015 were the Tories and UKIP, the Lib Dem vote could be squeezed.

    The difficulty with this idea is that Mrs May has now adopted the UKIP platform, lock, stock and barrel. These two parties are now indistinguishable. There is small choice in rotten apples.

    Before the Lib Dems became tarnished because of their association with the Conservatives in the Coalition Government, the Lib Dems came second in this constituency. Following Richmond, I would expect them to come at least second this time. There is currently quite a lot of good will towards the Lib Dems.

    Libs have grown share in every election since 2015 GE. So, they will get a few points of least. Labour will lost a few points. UKIP is tough to know. Clearly the Tory MP resigning is taking the piss. Therefore, I think turnout will be low. But I don't think UKIP will get any momentum.

    Tories, 1st, Libs 2nd, UKIP, 3rd, Lab, 4th. Success will depend on who gains shares. Libs will. The rest...who knows. (I'm often wrong).
    I would be very surprised if the Libs made it to second. I guess it's possible in a low turnout vote, where they are the only Remain option, but my money would be on them creeping back above 10% (but still seeing their absolute number of votes fall).
    If Sleaford was Remain and the LibDems were in UKIPs shoes they would do very well, but it's 62% Leave and UKIP are on 16%, with LibDems under 6%.
    It's a mirror image of Richmond Park, UKIP should be in contention and the LibDems should be squeezed
    Except I suspect that - even with Richmond Park on - the LDs will have had a more active campaign in Sleaford than UKIP.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    GeoffM said:

    Dixie said:

    GeoffM said:

    Dixie said:

    brokenwheel said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    When are we expecting to know the results from Italy and Austria?

    Austria could take a couple days if close, counting is slow. As for Italy voting ends 11pm their time, so probably not going to know til the early hours of the morning.

    Not that my predictions have been going completely well this year, but I have a funny feeling it will be VDB and Yes based on where is turning out in the respective elections.
    Without any real knowledge, I think it will be a NO and the bigot will win in Austria.
    Just because Bellend is in the Greens I'm not sure it's fair that you assume he's a bigot.
    Actually, thinking about Greenery, you're almost certainly right.
    The bigot is the other geezer.
    Just like the racist is or the anti-Semite etc etc. These days they are only words to be idly bantered with. Nobody takes them seriously because they have been overused.
    Apologies, I don't think that point came across properly in my original comment.
    that's ok. I'm teasing. Green seems to be winning, lazy hippy!
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,944
    rcs1000 said:

    PClipp said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dixie said:

    PClipp said:

    It was suggested above that, since the two front runners at Sleaford in 2015 were the Tories and UKIP, the Lib Dem vote could be squeezed.

    The difficulty with this idea is that Mrs May has now adopted the UKIP platform, lock, stock and barrel. These two parties are now indistinguishable. There is small choice in rotten apples.

    Before the Lib Dems became tarnished because of their association with the Conservatives in the Coalition Government, the Lib Dems came second in this constituency. Following Richmond, I would expect them to come at least second this time. There is currently quite a lot of good will towards the Lib Dems.

    Libs have grown share in every election since 2015 GE. So, they will get a few points of least. Labour will lost a few points. UKIP is tough to know. Clearly the Tory MP resigning is taking the piss. Therefore, I think turnout will be low. But I don't think UKIP will get any momentum.

    Tories, 1st, Libs 2nd, UKIP, 3rd, Lab, 4th. Success will depend on who gains shares. Libs will. The rest...who knows. (I'm often wrong).
    I would be very surprised if the Libs made it to second. I guess it's possible in a low turnout vote, where they are the only Remain option, but my money would be on them creeping back above 10% (but still seeing their absolute number of votes fall).
    I think you are being a bit pessimistic there, Young Robert! Come on... Who did you think was going to win at Richmond? :)
    The LDs going from fourth (almost fifth) to a good third place, with their vote share up 5%, is a good result for them.
    Agreed, also UKIP need to at least come second and be in contention with the Tories. This is a good chance for them.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    The question in the survey is not appropriate to the problem. It's not a matter whether we think that judges tell the truth, it's that their decisions are often contrary to the wishes of the majority of the people.
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    Who or what is keeping the troubled Italian banks in business?
This discussion has been closed.