David Evershed: where did you get your information from about Lib Dems abandoning Sleaford. If you watched the relevant party web sites you would see that what you have said is utter rubbish.
Mr. Eagles, I agree debates are unlikely, but worth recalling Cameron was generally very good at PMQs and a bit rubbish at the debates.
Also worth remembering Hague was better than Blair, for all the good that did him.
[I remain underwhelmed by May, I just don't think PMQs matter too much].
Cameron Won via debates, as did Corbyn. May did not even have one.
I thought May appeared very confident in front of the cameras when she was setting out her stall to the country for the role of Party leader --> Prime Minister. But at PMQs she does seem very hesitant and stuttery. Maybe a better style will come with time, but as I remember it, Cameron appeared very at ease at PMQs from the start. Maybe I misremember?
Dr. Foxinsox, Cameron became PM in spite of debates, not because of them.
Cameron won an unexpected victory, part of it was bettering the other leaders in the debates.He became leader the same way and gained 97 seats in 2010 too. Like Labour the Tories have forgotton that important skill.
May has to better that performance to continue majority government. She has no track record
Absolutely Michael. I have a bet hat UKIp will finish fourth at Sleaford with the Lib Dems second
Lib Dems seem to have abandoned Sleaford.
That may be so but the Hykeham part of the seat has long had strong Lib Dem representation
Although it is in Lincs, it is not THE strongest "Leave" seat - in fact it was marginally less leave than my own seat of NE Derbyshire according to Hanretty.
I think it is a fairly typical seat of provincial England and actually gives us a good chance to gauge how all the parties are doing. As you say the Lib Dems have some historic strength here.
Dr. Foxinsox, no. Cameron won most seats (a substantial increase too), but failed to win an overall majority in 2010, at least in part because of Clegg's strong debate performance. Brown also exceeded (low) expectations.
The debates gave Clegg a huge degree of media coverage, he performed well, and he was an alternative alternative to Brown. Previously that mantle had rested comfortably on Cameron's shoulders. The debates were a clear strategic mistake by Cameron, and good for both Brown and Clegg.
I agree May is not especially impressive, but if she faces Corbyn at the election she may still do very well.
For those discussing the supposed neutrality of the BBC I give you the latest blog posting of one of the mainstays of BBC Radio Journalism for more almost 25 years until his retirement in 2012. Typical I would suggest of the moronic left wing bias of so many BBC employees.
It certainly repels an awful lot more voters outside of Scotland than it attracts. And given that outside of Scotland = 92% of the UK, this is something of a problem for those tainted by association with it, as EdM found to his cost.
It's also then a problem for the UK, or for the minority who identify primarily with the UK. Even UKIP have stopped paying lip service to the UK component of their name, despite it making them look a bit dickish (not ever a problem for them tbf).
To be perfectly fair to Ukip, they've done quite well exploiting the populist nationalism market in England and Wales, but the territory in Scotland was already occupied when they got there.
The main problem for the UK is that Labour made an Olympic gold medal winning fuck-up of devolution. Failing to appreciate the problems that would be caused both by asymmetry - the old West Lothian Question - and by a funding model that gave the Scottish Parliament representation without taxation was a strategic failure of epic proportions. It has almost killed the Union and, of course, it's still by no means certain that Scotland won't become independent at some point during our lifetimes.
The only saving grace is that it is a mistake that may yet cost the Labour Party its life. If Nuttall can turn Ukip in the North of England into, effectively, the English National Party, and that party can capture two or three dozen Labour seats in areas like the North East, West Yorkshire and South Wales (even if it takes more than one Parliament to wear down Labour's majorities,) then Labour may be so badly weakened that it can never return to power. Which would represent good riddance to bad rubbish.
It's an intriguing prospect, although I doubt very much that it will happen. When things sound too good to be true, they usually are.
What are the chances that UKIP leapfrog Labour into 2nd in Sleaford? Will they continue to be irrelevant when that happens?
1/4 with PP.
I would put it a lot lower. Victoria Ayling is an appallling candidate for UKIP.
Ayling gaining prominence would be almost as bad news for Brexit as Olney's win in Richmond.
For those who missed my clip. This is VA campaigning for UKIP last May in the UKIP target seat of Grimsby. It was on Sunday Politics East Midlands. I piled on Labour on that seat and did very nicely. She offends everyone she meets:
Obviously as the byelection takes place outside the M25 it is of little interest to the MSM.
The downgrading of Grantham Hospital A/E, and local issues over transport seem to be the other issue along with Brexit. The LD is the only pro-EU candidate in a constituency with a 38% Remain vote. The Lab candidate is a WWC bin lorry driver and Trade Unionist. The OMRLP candidate is rather boring.
My uncle lives locally so I do have some ties to the area.
What are the chances that UKIP leapfrog Labour into 2nd in Sleaford? Will they continue to be irrelevant when that happens?
1/4 with PP.
I would put it a lot lower. Victoria Ayling is an appallling candidate for UKIP.
Ayling gaining prominence would be almost as bad news for Brexit as Olney's win in Richmond.
For those who missed my clip. This is VA campaigning for UKIP last May in the UKIP target seat of Grimsby. It was on Sunday Politics East Midlands. I piled on Labour on that seat and did very nicely. She offends everyone she meets:
Obviously as the byelection takes place outside the M25 it is of little interest to the MSM.
The downgrading of Grantham Hospital A/E, and local issues over transport seem to be the other issue along with Brexit. The LD is the only pro-EU candidate in a constituency with a 38% Remain vote. The Lab candidate is a WWC bin lorry driver and Trade Unionist. The OMRLP candidate is rather boring.
My uncle lives locally so I do have some ties to the area.
Interestingly I have had one mail shot from the local UKIP candidate (who I wouldn't touch with a barge pole) and one centralised mail shot from Theresa May asking me to vote for the Tory. Nothing from any of the other parties.
I would be amazed if this was anything other than a Tory hold. Strongly pro Brexit but with a poor UKIP candidate and a poor UKIP organisation on the ground.
Comments
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/38113557
https://twitter.com/50degreesam/status/804637881423851521
May has to better that performance to continue majority government. She has no track record
I think it is a fairly typical seat of provincial England and actually gives us a good chance to gauge how all the parties are doing. As you say the Lib Dems have some historic strength here.
NEW THREAD
The debates gave Clegg a huge degree of media coverage, he performed well, and he was an alternative alternative to Brown. Previously that mantle had rested comfortably on Cameron's shoulders. The debates were a clear strategic mistake by Cameron, and good for both Brown and Clegg.
I agree May is not especially impressive, but if she faces Corbyn at the election she may still do very well.
http://lustigletter.blogspot.co.uk/2016/12/richmond-park-turning-of-tide.html
The main problem for the UK is that Labour made an Olympic gold medal winning fuck-up of devolution. Failing to appreciate the problems that would be caused both by asymmetry - the old West Lothian Question - and by a funding model that gave the Scottish Parliament representation without taxation was a strategic failure of epic proportions. It has almost killed the Union and, of course, it's still by no means certain that Scotland won't become independent at some point during our lifetimes.
The only saving grace is that it is a mistake that may yet cost the Labour Party its life. If Nuttall can turn Ukip in the North of England into, effectively, the English National Party, and that party can capture two or three dozen Labour seats in areas like the North East, West Yorkshire and South Wales (even if it takes more than one Parliament to wear down Labour's majorities,) then Labour may be so badly weakened that it can never return to power. Which would represent good riddance to bad rubbish.
It's an intriguing prospect, although I doubt very much that it will happen. When things sound too good to be true, they usually are.
I would be amazed if this was anything other than a Tory hold. Strongly pro Brexit but with a poor UKIP candidate and a poor UKIP organisation on the ground.