Agreed, but I think the problem is that the unlimited low skilled labour pool provided by the EU takes the pressure off the government and businesses to invest in productivity improvements.
That sounds like a diagnosis in search of a disease and the EU isn't an unlimited pool of low skilled labour in any case.
40,000 Romanian migrants. Shut the fuck up.
Does that explain why our productivity is so much worse than many other EU countries that are tapping into the same pool of labour as us?
< The deal is only likely to be known close to 2019. There won't be time to renegotiate because A50 will have set a two-year deadline. Plus the EU27 will know they have us over a barrel. Would they really agree to an extension, having, presumably, reached the limit of what they were prepared to offer during the actual negotiations?
I doubt anyone will "reach the limit" during the negotiations - IF we reject the treaty there will be a desire on both sides to get a new deal and further compromise on both sides will be the order of the day.
Translates as "I want it to happen so it must happen".
What causes disaster is rarely things we don't know about but rather things we are sure about but are wrong.
"I don't want it so it won't" is hardly firmer ground?
In any event some at least of my post - such as the well established success of by-election victors in holding their seat at least once more - is objective fact.
I think you'll find it's me who is keeping the open mind and you who is making 'nailed on' predictions.
As to the "well established success of by-election victors in holding their seat at least once more" I don't see you giving any examples. Rather the person giving examples was me and as I showed in London there was a 1/3 record of Liberal holds at the subsequent general election.
Now there are constituencies outside London where the Liberals / SDP / LibDems did hold a byelection gain - Berwick, Isle of Ely, Roxburgh, Glasgow Hillhead, Brecon, Romsey, Eastleigh, Littleborough, Newbury.
But there are a similar number where the Conservatives regained the constituency at the first opportunity - Ripon, Crosby, Portsmouth S, Eastbourne, Ribble Valley, Ryedale, Kincardine, Christchurch, Torrington.
To group LibDem byelection wins from the Conservatives and the subsequent general election
Conservatives win general election and regain lost constituency Torrington Crosby Croydon NW Portsmouth S Ryedale Eastbourne Ribble Valley Kincardine
Conservatives win general election but fail to regain lost constituency Glasgow Hillhead Brecon
Conservatives lose general election but regain lost constituency Sutton & Cheam Ripon Christchurch
Conservatives lose general election and fail to regain lost constituency Orpington Roxburgh Berwick Isle of Ely Newbury Eastleigh Littleborough Romsey
So if the Conservatives win the next general election they are likely to regain Richmond Park and if they lose the next general election they are unlikely to regain Richmond Park.
Agreed, but I think the problem is that the unlimited low skilled labour pool provided by the EU takes the pressure off the government and businesses to invest in productivity improvements.
That sounds like a diagnosis in search of a disease and the EU isn't an unlimited pool of low skilled labour in any case.
40,000 Romanian migrants. Shut the fuck up.
Does that explain why our productivity is so much worse than many other EU countries that are tapping into the same pool of labour as us?
The other question about Richmond Park which I don't know the answer to is it's regional significance. In my experience London doesn't think of it's self as having a regional identity because it thinks of it's self as normative. London is the UK. Having been disabused of that fact will it begin to develop a self aware regional politics. Of course London has always had different politics but now it would notice it's difference and celebrate it.
To oversimplify to what extent is Richmond Park urban liberals sending a " Millwall " message ?
Richmond Park is as far from Tower Hamlets or Dagenham as Sunderland is from Sussex.
Richmond Park is the best place to live in the whole of the UK (apart from the bloody planes). And we've got a new MP.
No, it isn't. I considered it (even once owned a house in Petersham) but never lived there.
Thinking about ways last night could be good for the Conservatives:
1) Is a warning about complacency - there's plenty of that among the PB Tories
2) Gets rid of prima donna Zac - Richmond Park will likely be won by a 'proper' Conservative at the next election
3) Reduces the threat of other Conservatives becoming Independents, having unnecessary byelections etc
Unless the boundaries are radically different, LibDem hold, nailed on.
LOL
How many LibDem holds, nailed on did you predict in 2015 ?
How many LibDem gains, nailed on did you predict in 2010 ?
And I bet you were saying Richmond Park LibDem hold, nailed on in 2010 also.
There is probably at least half a fair point in there, somewhere.
Nevertheless, this time I am right, and I guess that you know it
Well lets look at history:
Orpington gained 1962, held 1964, held 1966, lost 1970 Sutton & Cheam gained 1972, lost 1974 Croydon NW gained 1981, lost 1983
So that's 1/3 holds.
To be fair Lib/SDP/LibDem gains from Labour in London were all initially held.
But the LibDem problem in Richmond Park is that they'll be referred to as a vote for Labour, a Labour led by Corbyn, a Labour led by Corbyn in the pocked of the SNP.
Difficult.
The difference though is that this seat - and its predecessors - has been a Tory/Liberal marginal since 1970 . Thus. the party has history here - it's not exactly a bolt from the blue.
So having whined incessantly for 40 years, and toppled at least one Government, having won a vote on a narrow margin after the most dishonest campaign in living memory, Brexiteers will only be happy if everyone else shuts up?
I believe the appropriate phrase is, Suck it up!!
The forces that gave Brexit and Trump momentum coalesced around grievance rather than vision. There was no agenda, no genuinely thought-out project that the winners could soberly set about executing, just resentment. And the grievance narrative must be continued even in success because that is pretty much the whole energising principle.
You're just a dickhead. On this page, today, williamglenn outlined how he thought and hoped the vote could be reversed, undemocratically.
Hang on a minute! You asked the question 'how?' and I answered. I don't hope that anything will be reversed against the will of the people; I hope that Brexit itself will be discredited in the eyes of the people and the politicians who've used it to further their own careers will be tossed in the dustbin of Brexitry.
Unlike people like Cameron I actually think public consent for the EU is a precious thing and it shouldn't have been squandered by turning the EU into a whipping boy while continuing to make self-inflicted policy errors.
Agreed, but I think the problem is that the unlimited low skilled labour pool provided by the EU takes the pressure off the government and businesses to invest in productivity improvements.
That sounds like a diagnosis in search of a disease and the EU isn't an unlimited pool of low skilled labour in any case.
40,000 Romanian migrants. Shut the fuck up.
Does that explain why our productivity is so much worse than many other EU countries that are tapping into the same pool of labour as us?
Thinking about ways last night could be good for the Conservatives:
1) Is a warning about complacency - there's plenty of that among the PB Tories
2) Gets rid of prima donna Zac - Richmond Park will likely be won by a 'proper' Conservative at the next election
3) Reduces the threat of other Conservatives becoming Independents, having unnecessary byelections etc
Unless the boundaries are radically different, LibDem hold, nailed on.
LOL
How many LibDem holds, nailed on did you predict in 2015 ?
How many LibDem gains, nailed on did you predict in 2010 ?
And I bet you were saying Richmond Park LibDem hold, nailed on in 2010 also.
There is probably at least half a fair point in there, somewhere.
Nevertheless, this time I am right, and I guess that you know it
Well lets look at history:
Orpington gained 1962, held 1964, held 1966, lost 1970 Sutton & Cheam gained 1972, lost 1974 Croydon NW gained 1981, lost 1983
So that's 1/3 holds.
To be fair Lib/SDP/LibDem gains from Labour in London were all initially held.
But the LibDem problem in Richmond Park is that they'll be referred to as a vote for Labour, a Labour led by Corbyn, a Labour led by Corbyn in the pocked of the SNP.
Difficult.
The difference though is that this seat - and its predecessors - has been a Tory/Liberal marginal since 1970 . Thus. the party has history here - it's not exactly a bolt from the blue.
That's a fair point but it also means that the LibDems don't have a huge new pile of voters which may be converted.
Agreed, but I think the problem is that the unlimited low skilled labour pool provided by the EU takes the pressure off the government and businesses to invest in productivity improvements.
That sounds like a diagnosis in search of a disease and the EU isn't an unlimited pool of low skilled labour in any case.
40,000 Romanian migrants. Shut the fuck up.
Does that explain why our productivity is so much worse than many other EU countries that are tapping into the same pool of labour as us?
We have the most open labour market in the whole EU. Switzerland and Germany are almost closed shops for unskilled and low skill workers.
And Ireland?
Are you arguing that an inflexible labour market is a good thing economically?
In an open immigration system it's not easy to say. On balance probably, yes. At least for unskilled jobs. Closing up shop by requiring "qualifications" for any job is the only way to protect the domestic labour force.
An English hairdresser is no less skilled than a Swiss hairdresser but over here their wages are lower because of immigration driving them down. In Switzerland without the right hairdressing certificate finding a job is impossible so low skilled workers don't go, ensuring domestic workers are paid a decent wage.
Internally flexible, closed externally. This is also a partial explanation as to why German and Swiss workers have been less affected by globalisation as well.
Translates as "I want it to happen so it must happen".
What causes disaster is rarely things we don't know about but rather things we are sure about but are wrong.
"I don't want it so it won't" is hardly firmer ground?
In any event some at least of my post - such as the well established success of by-election victors in holding their seat at least once more - is objective fact.
I think you'll find it's me who is keeping the open mind and you who is making 'nailed on' predictions.
As to the "well established success of by-election victors in holding their seat at least once more" I don't see you giving any examples. Rather the person giving examples was me and as I showed in London there was a 1/3 record of Liberal holds at the subsequent general election.
Now there are constituencies outside London where the Liberals / SDP / LibDems did hold a byelection gain - Berwick, Isle of Ely, Roxburgh, Glasgow Hillhead, Brecon, Romsey, Eastleigh, Littleborough, Newbury.
But there are a similar number where the Conservatives regained the constituency at the first opportunity - Ripon, Crosby, Portsmouth S, Eastbourne, Ribble Valley, Ryedale, Kincardine, Christchurch, Torrington.
To group LibDem byelection wins from the Conservatives and the subsequent general election
Conservatives win general election and regain lost constituency Torrington Crosby Croydon NW Portsmouth S Ryedale Eastbourne Ribble Valley Kincardine
Conservatives win general election but fail to regain lost constituency Glasgow Hillhead Brecon
Conservatives lose general election but regain lost constituency Sutton & Cheam Ripon Christchurch
Conservatives lose general election and fail to regain lost constituency Orpington Roxburgh Berwick Isle of Ely Newbury Eastleigh Littleborough Romsey
So if the Conservatives win the next general election they are likely to regain Richmond Park and if they lose the next general election they are unlikely to regain Richmond Park.
The successor to the Littleborough & Saddleworth seat went Labour in 1997 .
Agreed, but I think the problem is that the unlimited low skilled labour pool provided by the EU takes the pressure off the government and businesses to invest in productivity improvements.
That sounds like a diagnosis in search of a disease and the EU isn't an unlimited pool of low skilled labour in any case.
40,000 Romanian migrants. Shut the fuck up.
Does that explain why our productivity is so much worse than many other EU countries that are tapping into the same pool of labour as us?
We have the most open labour market in the whole EU. Switzerland and Germany are almost closed shops for unskilled and low skill workers.
The entire EU has freedom of movement, Germany has just increased its workforce with the addition of 1m FAMs. And yet only in the UK is our productivity shocking because of free movement?
I cannot motivate myself to look at the stats for immigrant workforces throughout the EU28 but I find it tricky to believe.
So tomorrow it's the Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown. Proper 2 mile Chasers battling it out in one of jumps racings great tests.....
Ar Mad thrilled as a novice over C and D last year but missed the championship races. He impressed with the speed and accuracy of his jumping and is a very interesting contender with scope to improve. However the horses he beat last year, although decent sorts, leave him needing improvement.
Gods Own is an honest horse who claimed the scalp of the late Vautour when winning his Grade 1 at Punchestown in the spring. He really needs decent ground which in most years he wouldn't get here but after the dry autumn he has his surface. Whilst effective at this trip I have a suspicion he's better over further and he has a tendency to hit the odd one having ended up on the deck last time he ran at Sandown. Not out of it.
Sire de Grugy has won this twice as well as a Champion Chase and if he kicks for home at the Pond Fence nobody will be shouting louder than me. A somewhat indifferent season last year despite his win here but in his prep race three weeks ago at Ascot he looked to be back on song, travelling well and the likely winner a long way out. He's a real battleship and sure to be there or thereabouts but at almost 11 is age catching up?
Sir Valentino represents the same trainer as Gods Own, and has improved plenty in handicaps over the last 18 months. Despite a game win at Exeter last time, he looks outclassed here.
Un de Sceaux comes over from Ireland representing Willie Mullins. A brilliant winner of the Arkle two seasons ago, he was beaten by the resurgent Sprinter Sacre in this year's Champion Chase. He has a tendency to guess at the odd fence and acts on the ground but is arguably better with more cut. Worthy favourite, and has beaten most of the others but not without vulnerability.
Vibrato Valtat completes the line up. He actually started favourite for this last year and although he's been finishing fourth and fifth in many recent races he often hasn't been beaten far. The stable had a difficult season last year and it's not impossible he could outrun his odds here. But he seems to be one of those horses who doesn't quite have the tactical pace of the specialist 2 milers but gets outstayed over 2 and a half.
Ar Mad and Un de Sceaux like to lead so a tremendous pace is guaranteed. That might set it up for something from off the pace. I'd love Sire de Grugy to take a third Tingle Creek but I worry that despite his win last time out the balance of last season's form suggested he might have declined a little. If God's Own is ever to win a Tingle Creek it will have to be tomorrow as good ground is rare at Sandown in December. 2 mile chases are all about rhythm and jumping and especially down the back at Sandown. If they go off fast and he jumps well behind, God's Own just may reel them in up the straight. If you can get 4-1 or more that may be fair value.
Translates as "I want it to happen so it must happen".
What causes disaster is rarely things we don't know about but rather things we are sure about but are wrong.
"I don't want it so it won't" is hardly firmer ground?
In any event some at least of my post - such as the well established success of by-election victors in holding their seat at least once more - is objective fact.
I think you'll find it's me who is keeping the open mind and you who is making 'nailed on' predictions.
As to the "well established success of by-election victors in holding their seat at least once more" I don't see you giving any examples. Rather the person giving examples was me and as I showed in London there was a 1/3 record of Liberal holds at the subsequent general election.
Now there are constituencies outside London where the Liberals / SDP / LibDems did hold a byelection gain - Berwick, Isle of Ely, Roxburgh, Glasgow Hillhead, Brecon, Romsey, Eastleigh, Littleborough, Newbury.
But there are a similar number where the Conservatives regained the constituency at the first opportunity - Ripon, Crosby, Portsmouth S, Eastbourne, Ribble Valley, Ryedale, Kincardine, Christchurch, Torrington.
To group LibDem byelection wins from the Conservatives and the subsequent general election
Conservatives win general election and regain lost constituency Torrington Crosby Croydon NW Portsmouth S Ryedale Eastbourne Ribble Valley Kincardine
Conservatives win general election but fail to regain lost constituency Glasgow Hillhead Brecon
Conservatives lose general election but regain lost constituency Sutton & Cheam Ripon Christchurch
Conservatives lose general election and fail to regain lost constituency Orpington Roxburgh Berwick Isle of Ely Newbury Eastleigh Littleborough Romsey
So if the Conservatives win the next general election they are likely to regain Richmond Park and if they lose the next general election they are unlikely to regain Richmond Park.
The successor to the Littleborough & Saddleworth seat went Labour in 1997 .
That's right - you always need to check properly.
Still, I reckon the LibDems would have held Littleborough in 1997 if it had still existed
Thinking about ways last night could be good for the Conservatives:
1) Is a warning about complacency - there's plenty of that among the PB Tories
2) Gets rid of prima donna Zac - Richmond Park will likely be won by a 'proper' Conservative at the next election
3) Reduces the threat of other Conservatives becoming Independents, having unnecessary byelections etc
Unless the boundaries are radically different, LibDem hold, nailed on.
LOL
How many LibDem holds, nailed on did you predict in 2015 ?
How many LibDem gains, nailed on did you predict in 2010 ?
And I bet you were saying Richmond Park LibDem hold, nailed on in 2010 also.
There is probably at least half a fair point in there, somewhere.
Nevertheless, this time I am right, and I guess that you know it
Well lets look at history:
Orpington gained 1962, held 1964, held 1966, lost 1970 Sutton & Cheam gained 1972, lost 1974 Croydon NW gained 1981, lost 1983
So that's 1/3 holds.
To be fair Lib/SDP/LibDem gains from Labour in London were all initially held.
But the LibDem problem in Richmond Park is that they'll be referred to as a vote for Labour, a Labour led by Corbyn, a Labour led by Corbyn in the pocked of the SNP.
Difficult.
The difference though is that this seat - and its predecessors - has been a Tory/Liberal marginal since 1970 . Thus. the party has history here - it's not exactly a bolt from the blue.
That's a fair point but it also means that the LibDems don't have a huge new pile of voters which may be converted.
Well - there are those who failed to vote at all at the by election. For all the criticism of him Goldsmith did have quite a strong personal following which might not transfer to another Tory candidate.
To use a theological analogy in Anglicanism the source of authority for doctrine is " Scripture, Tradition and Reason. " The result of 23rd of June is Scripture. But reason involves debate and understanding what 23rd of June meant. Tradition is all events after the 23rd of June. As times passes there is more and more tradition to consider.
As with most things Anglicanism is a via media. It tries to triangulate between the Church and Papacy as a source of authority on one hand and Sola Scriptura on the other.
Too many Leavers are being Calvinist about this and thus becoming unpleasant extremists. They are saying the meaning of Brexit was fixed in the early hours of June 24th and any other critical reflection is not only unnecessary but wrong and heretical.
But the whole point of Anglicanism was it was a Soft Brexit from the Reformation that suited the English character well. We don't like extremes.
Agreed, but I think the problem is that the unlimited low skilled labour pool provided by the EU takes the pressure off the government and businesses to invest in productivity improvements.
That sounds like a diagnosis in search of a disease and the EU isn't an unlimited pool of low skilled labour in any case.
40,000 Romanian migrants. Shut the fuck up.
Does that explain why our productivity is so much worse than many other EU countries that are tapping into the same pool of labour as us?
We have the most open labour market in the whole EU. Switzerland and Germany are almost closed shops for unskilled and low skill workers.
The entire EU has freedom of movement, Germany has just increased its workforce with the addition of 1m FAMs. And yet only in the UK is our productivity shocking because of free movement?
I cannot motivate myself to look at the stats for immigrant workforces throughout the EU28 but I find it tricky to believe.
Free movement of low skilled workers is definitely a factor in British productivity stagnation during the last decade.
But there are at least four other factors I can suggest as well.
Agreed, but I think the problem is that the unlimited low skilled labour pool provided by the EU takes the pressure off the government and businesses to invest in productivity improvements.
That sounds like a diagnosis in search of a disease and the EU isn't an unlimited pool of low skilled labour in any case.
40,000 Romanian migrants. Shut the fuck up.
Does that explain why our productivity is so much worse than many other EU countries that are tapping into the same pool of labour as us?
We have the most open labour market in the whole EU. Switzerland and Germany are almost closed shops for unskilled and low skill workers.
The entire EU has freedom of movement, Germany has just increased its workforce with the addition of 1m FAMs. And yet only in the UK is our productivity shocking because of free movement?
I cannot motivate myself to look at the stats for immigrant workforces throughout the EU28 but I find it tricky to believe.
The German labour market is a closed shop like the Swiss one. You either have a German qualification, study for equivalence or don't bother. That isn't the case here.
My gf's friend's bf is from the UK, he's a plasterer by trade and fairly good, but without the specific Swiss qualification for plastering or an equivalency certification he is unable to find steady work and just has to advertise to ex-pats on forums etc... A plasterer who turns up in the UK from Poland can just join any crew with the most basic (or even non-existent) English skills.
To use a theological analogy in Anglicanism the source of authority for doctrine is " Scripture, Tradition and Reason. " The result of 23rd of June is Scripture. But reason involves debate and understanding what 23rd of June meant. Tradition is all events after the 23rd of June. As times passes there is more and more tradition to consider.
As with most things Anglicanism is a via media. It tries to triangulate between the Church and Papacy as a source of authority on one hand and Sola Scriptura on the other.
Too many Leavers are being Calvinist about this and thus becoming unpleasant extremists. They are saying the meaning of Brexit was fixed in the early hours of June 24th and any other critical reflection is not only unnecessary but wrong and heretical.
But the whole point of Anglicanism was it was a Soft Brexit from the Reformation that suited the English character well. We don't like extremes.
On that analogy you're a Catholic still following (the Treaty of) Rome.
Translates as "I want it to happen so it must happen".
What causes disaster is rarely things we don't know about but rather things we are sure about but are wrong.
"I don't want it so it won't" is hardly firmer ground?
In any event some at least of my post - such as the well established success of by-election victors in holding their seat at least once more - is objective fact.
I think you'll find it's me who is keeping the open mind and you who is making 'nailed on' predictions.
As to the "well established success of by-election victors in holding their seat at least once more" I don't see you giving any examples. Rather the person giving examples was me and as I showed in London there was a 1/3 record of Liberal holds at the subsequent general election.
Now there are constituencies outside London where the Liberals / SDP / LibDems did hold a byelection gain - Berwick, Isle of Ely, Roxburgh, Glasgow Hillhead, Brecon, Romsey, Eastleigh, Littleborough, Newbury.
But there are a similar number where the Conservatives regained the constituency at the first opportunity - Ripon, Crosby, Portsmouth S, Eastbourne, Ribble Valley, Ryedale, Kincardine, Christchurch, Torrington.
To group LibDem byelection wins from the Conservatives and the subsequent general election
Conservatives win general election and regain lost constituency Torrington Crosby Croydon NW Portsmouth S Ryedale Eastbourne Ribble Valley Kincardine
Conservatives win general election but fail to regain lost constituency Glasgow Hillhead Brecon
Conservatives lose general election but regain lost constituency Sutton & Cheam Ripon Christchurch
Conservatives lose general election and fail to regain lost constituency Orpington Roxburgh Berwick Isle of Ely Newbury Eastleigh Littleborough Romsey
So if the Conservatives win the next general election they are likely to regain Richmond Park and if they lose the next general election they are unlikely to regain Richmond Park.
The successor to the Littleborough & Saddleworth seat went Labour in 1997 .
That's right - you always need to check properly.
Still, I reckon the LibDems would have held Littleborough in 1997 if it had still existed
I doubt it . The Tories dropped to third place at the by election and there was clear evidence of quite a few Labour voters having voted tactically on the basis that Labour stood no chance. Having discovered that Labour was a good close second to the LibDems such voters would have switched to Labour in 1997 - as happened in the new seat.
Thinking about ways last night could be good for the Conservatives:
1) Is a warning about complacency - there's plenty of that among the PB Tories
2) Gets rid of prima donna Zac - Richmond Park will likely be won by a 'proper' Conservative at the next election
3) Reduces the threat of other Conservatives becoming Independents, having unnecessary byelections etc
Unless the boundaries are radically different, LibDem hold, nailed on.
LOL
How many LibDem holds, nailed on did you predict in 2015 ?
How many LibDem gains, nailed on did you predict in 2010 ?
And I bet you were saying Richmond Park LibDem hold, nailed on in 2010 also.
There is probably at least half a fair point in there, somewhere.
Nevertheless, this time I am right, and I guess that you know it
Well lets look at history:
Orpington gained 1962, held 1964, held 1966, lost 1970 Sutton & Cheam gained 1972, lost 1974 Croydon NW gained 1981, lost 1983
So that's 1/3 holds.
To be fair Lib/SDP/LibDem gains from Labour in London were all initially held.
But the LibDem problem in Richmond Park is that they'll be referred to as a vote for Labour, a Labour led by Corbyn, a Labour led by Corbyn in the pocked of the SNP.
Difficult.
The difference though is that this seat - and its predecessors - has been a Tory/Liberal marginal since 1970 . Thus. the party has history here - it's not exactly a bolt from the blue.
That's a fair point but it also means that the LibDems don't have a huge new pile of voters which may be converted.
Well - there are those who failed to vote at all at the by election. For all the criticism of him Goldsmith did have quite a strong personal following which might not transfer to another Tory candidate.
Mights, and ifs and possiblies.
I don't know what will happen but I doubt anything is 'nailed on'.
Thinking about ways last night could be good for the Conservatives:
1) Is a warning about complacency - there's plenty of that among the PB Tories
2) Gets rid of prima donna Zac - Richmond Park will likely be won by a 'proper' Conservative at the next election
3) Reduces the threat of other Conservatives becoming Independents, having unnecessary byelections etc
Unless the boundaries are radically different, LibDem hold, nailed on.
LOL
How many LibDem holds, nailed on did you predict in 2015 ?
How many LibDem gains, nailed on did you predict in 2010 ?
And I bet you were saying Richmond Park LibDem hold, nailed on in 2010 also.
There is probably at least half a fair point in there, somewhere.
Nevertheless, this time I am right, and I guess that you know it
Well lets look at history:
Orpington gained 1962, held 1964, held 1966, lost 1970 Sutton & Cheam gained 1972, lost 1974 Croydon NW gained 1981, lost 1983
So that's 1/3 holds.
To be fair Lib/SDP/LibDem gains from Labour in London were all initially held.
But the LibDem problem in Richmond Park is that they'll be referred to as a vote for Labour, a Labour led by Corbyn, a Labour led by Corbyn in the pocked of the SNP.
Difficult.
The difference though is that this seat - and its predecessors - has been a Tory/Liberal marginal since 1970 . Thus. the party has history here - it's not exactly a bolt from the blue.
That's a fair point but it also means that the LibDems don't have a huge new pile of voters which may be converted.
Well - there are those who failed to vote at all at the by election. For all the criticism of him Goldsmith did have quite a strong personal following which might not transfer to another Tory candidate.
Mights, and ifs and possiblies.
I don't know what will happen but I doubt anything is 'nailed on'.
I agree - the result is not a foregone conclusion.
I think the Richmond by-election sets the ideal reference point for the tipping point of politics to have been reached. These things creep up on political parties and a gradual deflation of Conservative support will now take place. The truth is May and her government cannot win in the current political environment. They either do Brexit and the economic shock waves for the bottom 50% income of the population will be dramatic and lead to massive swings in the polls. Alternatively they try and fudge a deal which the Tory diehards will find unacceptable. Either way the Tories lose support.
I still think that the best result given May has no mandate is to do nothing until after the next general election. Kick it into the long grass and the nutters who want Brexit on any terms can go to hell. Brexit proponents before June mislead the population and it is for their own good it is not enacted. I know this will enrage some who hold Brexit dearly but their will be bigger riots if the economy goes down the toilet through Brexit than their will be if Brexit is aborted.
Agreed, but I think the problem is that the unlimited low skilled labour pool provided by the EU takes the pressure off the government and businesses to invest in productivity improvements.
That sounds like a diagnosis in search of a disease and the EU isn't an unlimited pool of low skilled labour in any case.
40,000 Romanian migrants. Shut the fuck up.
Does that explain why our productivity is so much worse than many other EU countries that are tapping into the same pool of labour as us?
We have the most open labour market in the whole EU. Switzerland and Germany are almost closed shops for unskilled and low skill workers.
The entire EU has freedom of movement, Germany has just increased its workforce with the addition of 1m FAMs. And yet only in the UK is our productivity shocking because of free movement?
I cannot motivate myself to look at the stats for immigrant workforces throughout the EU28 but I find it tricky to believe.
The German labour market is a closed shop like the Swiss one. You either have a German qualification, study for equivalence or don't bother. That isn't the case here.
My gf's friend's bf is from the UK, he's a plasterer by trade and fairly good, but without the specific Swiss qualification for plastering or an equivalency certification he is unable to find steady work and just has to advertise to ex-pats on forums etc... A plasterer who turns up in the UK from Poland can just join any crew with the most basic (or even non-existent) English skills.
So what will the recently arrived refugees do in Germany?
Agreed, but I think the problem is that the unlimited low skilled labour pool provided by the EU takes the pressure off the government and businesses to invest in productivity improvements.
That sounds like a diagnosis in search of a disease and the EU isn't an unlimited pool of low skilled labour in any case.
40,000 Romanian migrants. Shut the fuck up.
Does that explain why our productivity is so much worse than many other EU countries that are tapping into the same pool of labour as us?
We have the most open labour market in the whole EU. Switzerland and Germany are almost closed shops for unskilled and low skill workers.
The entire EU has freedom of movement, Germany has just increased its workforce with the addition of 1m FAMs. And yet only in the UK is our productivity shocking because of free movement?
I cannot motivate myself to look at the stats for immigrant workforces throughout the EU28 but I find it tricky to believe.
The German labour market is a closed shop like the Swiss one. You either have a German qualification, study for equivalence or don't bother. That isn't the case here.
My gf's friend's bf is from the UK, he's a plasterer by trade and fairly good, but without the specific Swiss qualification for plastering or an equivalency certification he is unable to find steady work and just has to advertise to ex-pats on forums etc... A plasterer who turns up in the UK from Poland can just join any crew with the most basic (or even non-existent) English skills.
So what will the recently arrived refugees do in Germany?
Nothing. The same as now. Remember Mrs Merkel's plea to industry and her new idea to subsidise their qualifications with interest free loans and grants? That's because none of them can find work. They don't speak German, most are unskilled which, as I said, is a closed shop and there is a general weariness of outsiders.
I think the Richmond by-election sets the ideal reference point for the tipping point of politics to have been reached. These things creep up on political parties and a gradual deflation of Conservative support will now take place. The truth is May and her government cannot win in the current political environment. They either do Brexit and the economic shock waves for the bottom 50% income of the population will be dramatic and lead to massive swings in the polls. Alternatively they try and fudge a deal which the Tory diehards will find unacceptable. Either way the Tories lose support.
I still think that the best result given May has no mandate is to do nothing until after the next general election. Kick it into the long grass and the nutters who want Brexit on any terms can go to hell. Brexit proponents before June mislead the population and it is for their own good it is not enacted. I know this will enrage some who hold Brexit dearly but their will be bigger riots if the economy goes down the toilet through Brexit than their will be if Brexit is aborted.
What is so wonderful about the EU that you cannot contemplate any alternative?
A thought for those thinking that they can avoid brexit. When people goto the ballot box and win and it still makes no difference they learn the ballot box doesnt work. When the ballot box ceases to work they fall back on other options
Do you really want to tell 17 million people the ballot box no longer works for them? While most will do little more than grumble there will be enough in there willing to go further to exert their will, even if its only 0.1 percent thats still 17000 people.
A thought for those thinking that they can avoid brexit. When people goto the ballot box and win and it still makes no difference they learn the ballot box doesnt work. When the ballot box ceases to work they fall back on other options
Do you really want to tell 17 million people the ballot box no longer works for them? While most will do little more than grumble there will be enough in there willing to go further to exert their will, even if its only 0.1 percent thats still 17000 people.
Veiled threat, huh.
You're going to get your brexit. It may not be the variant you want though. That will take into account the wishes of the 48% who didn't vote your way.
I think the Richmond by-election sets the ideal reference point for the tipping point of politics to have been reached. These things creep up on political parties and a gradual deflation of Conservative support will now take place. The truth is May and her government cannot win in the current political environment. They either do Brexit and the economic shock waves for the bottom 50% income of the population will be dramatic and lead to massive swings in the polls. Alternatively they try and fudge a deal which the Tory diehards will find unacceptable. Either way the Tories lose support.
I still think that the best result given May has no mandate is to do nothing until after the next general election. Kick it into the long grass and the nutters who want Brexit on any terms can go to hell. Brexit proponents before June mislead the population and it is for their own good it is not enacted. I know this will enrage some who hold Brexit dearly but their will be bigger riots if the economy goes down the toilet through Brexit than their will be if Brexit is aborted.
What is so wonderful about the EU that you cannot contemplate any alternative?
There is nothing wonderful about the EU. The point is the alternative does not exist! Its all pipe dreams. When I was a conservative activist I used to have discourse with individuals who talked about joining Nafta instead. The type of people I have encountered recently believed the rhetoric about £350 million for the NHS and the bogus drivel about immigration. Now Brexiteers like Johnson, Davis and Fox talk about immigration continuing, this is not what the people I have met voted for. They cannot help it but they are stupid. It is not in their interests economically for Brexit to go ahead. I respect the people who want to leave because of sovereignty but I don't think that is an acceptable trade off for the negative impact it will have on the ignorant.
A thought for those thinking that they can avoid brexit. When people goto the ballot box and win and it still makes no difference they learn the ballot box doesnt work. When the ballot box ceases to work they fall back on other options
Do you really want to tell 17 million people the ballot box no longer works for them? While most will do little more than grumble there will be enough in there willing to go further to exert their will, even if its only 0.1 percent thats still 17000 people.
Veiled threat, huh.
You're going to get your brexit. It may not be the variant you want though. That will take into account the wishes of the 48% who didn't vote your way.
Not a veiled threat at all just pointing out that if you take the ability to change things through the ballot box then then next stop tends to be trying to change things through messier means. History shows us this clearly.
My point is if brexit doesnt happen then what is the point of campaigning for brexit, even if a vote is held there would be no belief it would be honoured so people would stop using peaceful means
A thought for those thinking that they can avoid brexit. When people goto the ballot box and win and it still makes no difference they learn the ballot box doesnt work. When the ballot box ceases to work they fall back on other options
Do you really want to tell 17 million people the ballot box no longer works for them? While most will do little more than grumble there will be enough in there willing to go further to exert their will, even if its only 0.1 percent thats still 17000 people.
The type of people who tend to get upset are hard right UKIP and Tory members, I don't really see them turning over cars and setting them on fire in the streets. They will be annoyed but not as irate as the people with incomes in the lower 50% of the population will be when their living standards noticeably deteriorate.
A thought for those thinking that they can avoid brexit. When people goto the ballot box and win and it still makes no difference they learn the ballot box doesnt work. When the ballot box ceases to work they fall back on other options
Do you really want to tell 17 million people the ballot box no longer works for them? While most will do little more than grumble there will be enough in there willing to go further to exert their will, even if its only 0.1 percent thats still 17000 people.
The type of people who tend to get upset are hard right UKIP and Tory members, I don't really see them turning over cars and setting them on fire in the streets. They will be annoyed but not as irate as the people with incomes in the lower 50% of the population will be when their living standards noticeably deteriorate.
Yet those same lower 50% of the population have had and will continue to have their living standards noticeably deteriorate because of uncontrolled immigration.
Or is that deemed an acceptable deterioration of living standards ?
A thought for those thinking that they can avoid brexit. When people goto the ballot box and win and it still makes no difference they learn the ballot box doesnt work. When the ballot box ceases to work they fall back on other options
Do you really want to tell 17 million people the ballot box no longer works for them? While most will do little more than grumble there will be enough in there willing to go further to exert their will, even if its only 0.1 percent thats still 17000 people.
A thought for those thinking that they can avoid brexit. When people goto the ballot box and win and it still makes no difference they learn the ballot box doesnt work. When the ballot box ceases to work they fall back on other options
Do you really want to tell 17 million people the ballot box no longer works for them? While most will do little more than grumble there will be enough in there willing to go further to exert their will, even if its only 0.1 percent thats still 17000 people.
The type of people who tend to get upset are hard right UKIP and Tory members, I don't really see them turning over cars and setting them on fire in the streets. They will be annoyed but not as irate as the people with incomes in the lower 50% of the population will be when their living standards noticeably deteriorate.
Well go ahead and try and thwart brexit if you wish but I would suggest that it will likely lead to more incidents like jo cox and it will lie at your door for taking the ballot box from those people. The brexit camp has more people in it than pensioners and like most sections of society they will have enough nutters in it to cause a lot of mess
A thought for those thinking that they can avoid brexit. When people goto the ballot box and win and it still makes no difference they learn the ballot box doesnt work. When the ballot box ceases to work they fall back on other options
Do you really want to tell 17 million people the ballot box no longer works for them? While most will do little more than grumble there will be enough in there willing to go further to exert their will, even if its only 0.1 percent thats still 17000 people.
So as many as a good home turnout at Pompey?
How many active members carrying out bombings did the IRA have or Al Quaeda or ISIS. You dont need many to cause huge problems. My point is in 17 millions there will be enough
That was weird. I made my Reformation/priest hole remark before checking the rest of the thread, and finding the exact same phrase used half an hour ago.
Ooo-er
Is PB turning into a hive mind?
Or it's the PB variant of the Infinite monkey theorem.
I think the Richmond by-election sets the ideal reference point for the tipping point of politics to have been reached. These things creep up on political parties and a gradual deflation of Conservative support will now take place. The truth is May and her government cannot win in the current political environment. They either do Brexit and the economic shock waves for the bottom 50% income of the population will be dramatic and lead to massive swings in the polls. Alternatively they try and fudge a deal which the Tory diehards will find unacceptable. Either way the Tories lose support.
I still think that the best result given May has no mandate is to do nothing until after the next general election. Kick it into the long grass and the nutters who want Brexit on any terms can go to hell. Brexit proponents before June mislead the population and it is for their own good it is not enacted. I know this will enrage some who hold Brexit dearly but their will be bigger riots if the economy goes down the toilet through Brexit than their will be if Brexit is aborted.
What is so wonderful about the EU that you cannot contemplate any alternative?
There is nothing wonderful about the EU. The point is the alternative does not exist! Its all pipe dreams. When I was a conservative activist I used to have discourse with individuals who talked about joining Nafta instead. The type of people I have encountered recently believed the rhetoric about £350 million for the NHS and the bogus drivel about immigration. Now Brexiteers like Johnson, Davis and Fox talk about immigration continuing, this is not what the people I have met voted for. They cannot help it but they are stupid. It is not in their interests economically for Brexit to go ahead. I respect the people who want to leave because of sovereignty but I don't think that is an acceptable trade off for the negative impact it will have on the ignorant.
The alternative is not being part of the EU. We managed well enough for several hundred years.
A thought for those thinking that they can avoid brexit. When people goto the ballot box and win and it still makes no difference they learn the ballot box doesnt work. When the ballot box ceases to work they fall back on other options
Do you really want to tell 17 million people the ballot box no longer works for them? While most will do little more than grumble there will be enough in there willing to go further to exert their will, even if its only 0.1 percent thats still 17000 people.
The type of people who tend to get upset are hard right UKIP and Tory members, I don't really see them turning over cars and setting them on fire in the streets. They will be annoyed but not as irate as the people with incomes in the lower 50% of the population will be when their living standards noticeably deteriorate.
Yet those same lower 50% of the population have had and will continue to have their living standards noticeably deteriorate because of uncontrolled immigration.
Or is that deemed an acceptable deterioration of living standards ?
Boris Johnson, David Davis and Liam Fox seem to think it acceptable with regard to immigration. They want Brexit but they want the immigration.
People need to get real, the reason why the UK needs immigration is to counter demographics. I don't like it but without an enlarged tax payer base i.e. more immigrants. When future tax payers retire their is not going to be enough tax payers to support the next waves of retirement aged individuals. We have just seen Hammond lift pension age to 70 in the Autumn statement.
The people in the lower 50% of incomes are more likely to have government transfers whether it is Pension, Top up benefits like tax credits, sickness benefits or Unemployment benefits. So I should think that it is better that economic activity is enhanced through immigration and therefore tax revenue to pay transfers than not at all. The point is the people who will be most affected by Brexit and voted Leave did it on a nest of lies.
A thought for those thinking that they can avoid brexit. When people goto the ballot box and win and it still makes no difference they learn the ballot box doesnt work. When the ballot box ceases to work they fall back on other options
Do you really want to tell 17 million people the ballot box no longer works for them? While most will do little more than grumble there will be enough in there willing to go further to exert their will, even if its only 0.1 percent thats still 17000 people.
So as many as a good home turnout at Pompey?
If, in the end, the people cannot enforce their decision via democratic means, because their government ignores them or suppresses them, then they will - justifiably - turn to non-democratic methods, and that ultimately means violence.
Democracy is always tinged with the distant threat of insurrection - democracy only exists because people have, in the past, been prepared to shed blood for their freedom.
"When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When governments fear the people, there is liberty" - Thomas Jefferson
Stop whining like a bitch.
Aside from La May, you have Davis, Fox and BoJo in charge of getting us out on some terms or other. We will trigger A50 in March after an unnecessary palaver about parliament's involvement, and then we are on the one way no u-turn road leading out. What terms will there be? Well Continuity Brexiters like you and @Pagan will no doubt worry that it is not hard enough and threaten all kinds of sturm and drang (it's German), but it will be some fudge that will please no one in the end, I imagine. That's democratic politics married to realpolitik for you.
But we will leave, and we will get on with it.
Plus I can't see you at the head of the mob with a pitchfork, it doesn't seem your style.
A thought for those thinking that they can avoid brexit. When people goto the ballot box and win and it still makes no difference they learn the ballot box doesnt work. When the ballot box ceases to work they fall back on other options
Do you really want to tell 17 million people the ballot box no longer works for them? While most will do little more than grumble there will be enough in there willing to go further to exert their will, even if its only 0.1 percent thats still 17000 people.
The type of people who tend to get upset are hard right UKIP and Tory members, I don't really see them turning over cars and setting them on fire in the streets. They will be annoyed but not as irate as the people with incomes in the lower 50% of the population will be when their living standards noticeably deteriorate.
Yet those same lower 50% of the population have had and will continue to have their living standards noticeably deteriorate because of uncontrolled immigration.
Or is that deemed an acceptable deterioration of living standards ?
Boris Johnson, David Davis and Liam Fox seem to think it acceptable with regard to immigration. They want Brexit but they want the immigration.
People need to get real, the reason why the UK needs immigration is to counter demographics. I don't like it but without an enlarged tax payer base i.e. more immigrants. When future tax payers retire their is not going to be enough tax payers to support the next waves of retirement aged individuals. We have just seen Hammond lift pension age to 70 in the Autumn statement.
The people in the lower 50% of incomes are more likely to have government transfers whether it is Pension, Top up benefits like tax credits, sickness benefits or Unemployment benefits. So I should think that it is better that economic activity is enhanced through immigration and therefore tax revenue to pay transfers than not at all. The point is the people who will be most affected by Brexit and voted Leave did it on a nest of lies.
I think the Richmond by-election sets the ideal reference point for the tipping point of politics to have been reached. These things creep up on political parties and a gradual deflation of Conservative support will now take place. The truth is May and her government cannot win in the current political environment. They either do Brexit and the economic shock waves for the bottom 50% income of the population will be dramatic and lead to massive swings in the polls. Alternatively they try and fudge a deal which the Tory diehards will find unacceptable. Either way the Tories lose support.
I still think that the best result given May has no mandate is to do nothing until after the next general election. Kick it into the long grass and the nutters who want Brexit on any terms can go to hell. Brexit proponents before June mislead the population and it is for their own good it is not enacted. I know this will enrage some who hold Brexit dearly but their will be bigger riots if the economy goes down the toilet through Brexit than their will be if Brexit is aborted.
What is so wonderful about the EU that you cannot contemplate any alternative?
There is nothing wonderful about the EU. The point is the alternative does not exist! Its all pipe dreams. When I was a conservative activist I used to have discourse with individuals who talked about joining Nafta instead. The type of people I have encountered recently believed the rhetoric about £350 million for the NHS and the bogus drivel about immigration. Now Brexiteers like Johnson, Davis and Fox talk about immigration continuing, this is not what the people I have met voted for. They cannot help it but they are stupid. It is not in their interests economically for Brexit to go ahead. I respect the people who want to leave because of sovereignty but I don't think that is an acceptable trade off for the negative impact it will have on the ignorant.
The alternative is not being part of the EU. We managed well enough for several hundred years.
Eh? That's no argument. Same could be said for washing machines and antibiotics.
The thoughts I posted to give them some context came out of a discussion at work that made me think. While a non violent person myself the hypothetical question posed was if brexit was ignored and your best friend was planning on assassinating a pro eu politician responsible would you report it to the authorities.
My first thought was I would tell them to use the ballot box but then of course they would just reply done that, won, been ignored. An argument difficult to refute
A thought for those thinking that they can avoid brexit. When people goto the ballot box and win and it still makes no difference they learn the ballot box doesnt work. When the ballot box ceases to work they fall back on other options
Do you really want to tell 17 million people the ballot box no longer works for them? While most will do little more than grumble there will be enough in there willing to go further to exert their will, even if its only 0.1 percent thats still 17000 people.
The type of people who tend to get upset are hard right UKIP and Tory members, I don't really see them turning over cars and setting them on fire in the streets. They will be annoyed but not as irate as the people with incomes in the lower 50% of the population will be when their living standards noticeably deteriorate.
Yet those same lower 50% of the population have had and will continue to have their living standards noticeably deteriorate because of uncontrolled immigration.
Or is that deemed an acceptable deterioration of living standards ?
Their living standards have deteriorated as much because their jobs were sent to China and India as due to immigration. I still haven't heard a pip from the right, hard right or indeed the alt right how they're going to deal with globalisation. It's all smash it down with little thought to what happens next. One might conclude much of the Brexit vote is being sold a false prospectus.
Agreed, but I think the problem is that the unlimited low skilled labour pool provided by the EU takes the pressure off the government and businesses to invest in productivity improvements.
That sounds like a diagnosis in search of a disease and the EU isn't an unlimited pool of low skilled labour in any case.
40,000 Romanian migrants. Shut the fuck up.
Does that explain why our productivity is so much worse than many other EU countries that are tapping into the same pool of labour as us?
We have the most open labour market in the whole EU. Switzerland and Germany are almost closed shops for unskilled and low skill workers.
The entire EU has freedom of movement, Germany has just increased its workforce with the addition of 1m FAMs. And yet only in the UK is our productivity shocking because of free movement?
I cannot motivate myself to look at the stats for immigrant workforces throughout the EU28 but I find it tricky to believe.
The German labour market is a closed shop like the Swiss one. You either have a German qualification, study for equivalence or don't bother. That isn't the case here.
My gf's friend's bf is from the UK, he's a plasterer by trade and fairly good, but without the specific Swiss qualification for plastering or an equivalency certification he is unable to find steady work and just has to advertise to ex-pats on forums etc... A plasterer who turns up in the UK from Poland can just join any crew with the most basic (or even non-existent) English skills.
So what will the recently arrived refugees do in Germany?
Nothing. The same as now. Remember Mrs Merkel's plea to industry and her new idea to subsidise their qualifications with interest free loans and grants? That's because none of them can find work. They don't speak German, most are unskilled which, as I said, is a closed shop and there is a general weariness of outsiders.
It's almost as if letting in one million unqualified people was a bad idea.
I think the Richmond by-election sets the ideal reference point for the tipping point of politics to have been reached. These things creep up on political parties and a gradual deflation of Conservative support will now take place. The truth is May and her government cannot win in the current political environment. They either do Brexit and the economic shock waves for the bottom 50% income of the population will be dramatic and lead to massive swings in the polls. Alternatively they try and fudge a deal which the Tory diehards will find unacceptable. Either way the Tories lose support.
I still think that the best result given May has no mandate is to do nothing until after the next general election. Kick it into the long grass and the nutters who want Brexit on any terms can go to hell. Brexit proponents before June mislead the population and it is for their own good it is not enacted. I know this will enrage some who hold Brexit dearly but their will be bigger riots if the economy goes down the toilet through Brexit than their will be if Brexit is aborted.
What is so wonderful about the EU that you cannot contemplate any alternative?
There is nothing wonderful about the EU. The point is the alternative does not exist! Its all pipe dreams. When I was a conservative activist I used to have discourse with individuals who talked about joining Nafta instead. The type of people I have encountered recently believed the rhetoric about £350 million for the NHS and the bogus drivel about immigration. Now Brexiteers like Johnson, Davis and Fox talk about immigration continuing, this is not what the people I have met voted for. They cannot help it but they are stupid. It is not in their interests economically for Brexit to go ahead. I respect the people who want to leave because of sovereignty but I don't think that is an acceptable trade off for the negative impact it will have on the ignorant.
So go out and campaign on that basis, find a party who will put a 2nd vote in its manifesto, then win a General Election, then win that 2nd referendum. Otherwise, shut the F up about ignoring or subverting the vote of June 23. It's stupid, immoral and dangerous.
We used to have freedom of speech as a core tenant of civilised society. In terms of the referendum the stupid idiots who put the legislation through parliament made it non binding, so go and suck on that.
A thought for those thinking that they can avoid brexit. When people goto the ballot box and win and it still makes no difference they learn the ballot box doesnt work. When the ballot box ceases to work they fall back on other options
Do you really want to tell 17 million people the ballot box no longer works for them? While most will do little more than grumble there will be enough in there willing to go further to exert their will, even if its only 0.1 percent thats still 17000 people.
The type of people who tend to get upset are hard right UKIP and Tory members, I don't really see them turning over cars and setting them on fire in the streets. They will be annoyed but not as irate as the people with incomes in the lower 50% of the population will be when their living standards noticeably deteriorate.
Yet those same lower 50% of the population have had and will continue to have their living standards noticeably deteriorate because of uncontrolled immigration.
Or is that deemed an acceptable deterioration of living standards ?
Boris Johnson, David Davis and Liam Fox seem to think it acceptable with regard to immigration. They want Brexit but they want the immigration.
People need to get real, the reason why the UK needs immigration is to counter demographics. I don't like it but without an enlarged tax payer base i.e. more immigrants. When future tax payers retire their is not going to be enough tax payers to support the next waves of retirement aged individuals. We have just seen Hammond lift pension age to 70 in the Autumn statement.
The people in the lower 50% of incomes are more likely to have government transfers whether it is Pension, Top up benefits like tax credits, sickness benefits or Unemployment benefits. So I should think that it is better that economic activity is enhanced through immigration and therefore tax revenue to pay transfers than not at all. The point is the people who will be most affected by Brexit and voted Leave did it on a nest of lies.
We have the most open labour market in the whole EU. Switzerland and Germany are almost closed shops for unskilled and low skill workers.
The entire EU has freedom of movement, Germany has just increased its workforce with the addition of 1m FAMs. And yet only in the UK is our productivity shocking because of free movement?
I cannot motivate myself to look at the stats for immigrant workforces throughout the EU28 but I find it tricky to believe.
The German labour market is a closed shop like the Swiss one. You either have a German qualification, study for equivalence or don't bother. That isn't the case here.
My gf's friend's bf is from the UK, he's a plasterer by trade and fairly good, but without the specific Swiss qualification for plastering or an equivalency certification he is unable to find steady work and just has to advertise to ex-pats on forums etc... A plasterer who turns up in the UK from Poland can just join any crew with the most basic (or even non-existent) English skills.
So what will the recently arrived refugees do in Germany?
Nothing. The same as now. Remember Mrs Merkel's plea to industry and her new idea to subsidise their qualifications with interest free loans and grants? That's because none of them can find work. They don't speak German, most are unskilled which, as I said, is a closed shop and there is a general weariness of outsiders.
You don't half talk some nonsense sometimes. According to this article, for example, about 50,000 refugees started work in Germany between September 2015 and September 2016. OK, most are still unemployed, but it's simply false to say they aren't getting jobs. Some are, and many others are entering apprenticeships.
When I arrived in Germany in 1998 with no Germany qualifications (edit: and rather limited spoken German), it took me less than a month to find a job as a software developer.
That was weird. I made my Reformation/priest hole remark before checking the rest of the thread, and finding the exact same phrase used half an hour ago.
I think the Richmond by-election sets the ideal reference point for the tipping point of politics to have been reached. These things creep up on political parties and a gradual deflation of Conservative support will now take place. The truth is May and her government cannot win in the current political environment. They either do Brexit and the economic shock waves for the bottom 50% income of the population will be dramatic and lead to massive swings in the polls. Alternatively they try and fudge a deal which the Tory diehards will find unacceptable. Either way the Tories lose support.
I still think that the best result given May has no mandate is to do nothing until after the next general election. Kick it into the long grass and the nutters who want Brexit on any terms can go to hell. Brexit proponents before June mislead the population and it is for their own good it is not enacted. I know this will enrage some who hold Brexit dearly but their will be bigger riots if the economy goes down the toilet through Brexit than their will be if Brexit is aborted.
What is so wonderful about the EU that you cannot contemplate any alternative?
There is nothing wonderful about the EU. The point is the alternative does not exist! Its all pipe dreams. When I was a conservative activist I used to have discourse with individuals who talked about joining Nafta instead. The type of people I have encountered recently believed the rhetoric about £350 million for the NHS and the bogus drivel about immigration. Now Brexiteers like Johnson, Davis and Fox talk about immigration continuing, this is not what the people I have met voted for. They cannot help it but they are stupid. It is not in their interests economically for Brexit to go ahead. I respect the people who want to leave because of sovereignty but I don't think that is an acceptable trade off for the negative impact it will have on the ignorant.
The alternative is not being part of the EU. We managed well enough for several hundred years.
Eh? That's no argument. Same could be said for washing machines and antibiotics.
No doubt. I just read endless gibberish about how life will somehow become horrid if we aren't in the EU. I have yet to see any evidence for that proposition.
A thought for those thinking that they can avoid brexit. When people goto the ballot box and win and it still makes no difference they learn the ballot box doesnt work. When the ballot box ceases to work they fall back on other options
Do you really want to tell 17 million people the ballot box no longer works for them? While most will do little more than grumble there will be enough in there willing to go further to exert their will, even if its only 0.1 percent thats still 17000 people.
The type of people who tend to get upset are hard right UKIP and Tory members, I don't really see them turning over cars and setting them on fire in the streets. They will be annoyed but not as irate as the people with incomes in the lower 50% of the population will be when their living standards noticeably deteriorate.
Well go ahead and try and thwart brexit if you wish but I would suggest that it will likely lead to more incidents like jo cox and it will lie at your door for taking the ballot box from those people. The brexit camp has more people in it than pensioners and like most sections of society they will have enough nutters in it to cause a lot of mess
If people brake the law they will go to jail. Ignoring a referendum that has no legal enforcement applied to it is perfectly acceptable especially given the lies and duplicity that leading members of the current government advocated.
We have the most open labour market in the whole EU. Switzerland and Germany are almost closed shops for unskilled and low skill workers.
The entire EU has freedom of movement, Germany has just increased its workforce with the addition of 1m FAMs. And yet only in the UK is our productivity shocking because of free movement?
I cannot motivate myself to look at the stats for immigrant workforces throughout the EU28 but I find it tricky to believe.
The German labour market is a closed shop like the Swiss one. You either have a German qualification, study for equivalence or don't bother. That isn't the case here.
My gf's friend's bf is from the UK, he's a plasterer by trade and fairly good, but without the specific Swiss qualification for plastering or an equivalency certification he is unable to find steady work and just has to advertise to ex-pats on forums etc... A plasterer who turns up in the UK from Poland can just join any crew with the most basic (or even non-existent) English skills.
So what will the recently arrived refugees do in Germany?
Nothing. The same as now. Remember Mrs Merkel's plea to industry and her new idea to subsidise their qualifications with interest free loans and grants? That's because none of them can find work. They don't speak German, most are unskilled which, as I said, is a closed shop and there is a general weariness of outsiders.
It's almost as if letting in one million unqualified people was a bad idea.
Jesus fucking christ these are the first results from google
We have the most open labour market in the whole EU. Switzerland and Germany are almost closed shops for unskilled and low skill workers.
The entire EU has freedom of movement, Germany has just increased its workforce with the addition of 1m FAMs. And yet only in the UK is our productivity shocking because of free movement?
I cannot motivate myself to look at the stats for immigrant workforces throughout the EU28 but I find it tricky to believe.
The German labour market is a closed shop like the Swiss one. You either have a German qualification, study for equivalence or don't bother. That isn't the case here.
My gf's friend's bf is from the UK, he's a plasterer by trade and fairly good, but without the specific Swiss qualification for plastering or an equivalency certification he is unable to find steady work and just has to advertise to ex-pats on forums etc... A plasterer who turns up in the UK from Poland can just join any crew with the most basic (or even non-existent) English skills.
So what will the recently arrived refugees do in Germany?
Nothing. The same as now. Remember Mrs Merkel's plea to industry and her new idea to subsidise their qualifications with interest free loans and grants? That's because none of them can find work. They don't speak German, most are unskilled which, as I said, is a closed shop and there is a general weariness of outsiders.
You don't half talk some nonsense sometimes. According to this article, for example, about 50,000 refugees started work in Germany between September 2015 and September 2016. OK, most are still unemployed, but it's simply false to say they aren't getting jobs. Some are, and many others are entering apprenticeships.
When I arrived in Germany in 1998 with no Germany qualifications (edit: and rather limited spoken German), it took me less than a month to find a job as a software developer.
Because software development is unskilled work? I'm sure I could get a job in banking tomorrow if I wanted.
We have the most open labour market in the whole EU. Switzerland and Germany are almost closed shops for unskilled and low skill workers.
The entire EU has freedom of movement, Germany has just increased its workforce with the addition of 1m FAMs. And yet only in the UK is our productivity shocking because of free movement?
I cannot motivate myself to look at the stats for immigrant workforces throughout the EU28 but I find it tricky to believe.
The German labour market is a closed shop like the Swiss one. You either have a German qualification, study for equivalence or don't bother. That isn't the case here.
My gf's friend's bf is from the UK, he's a plasterer by trade and fairly good, but without the specific Swiss qualification for plastering or an equivalency certification he is unable to find steady work and just has to advertise to ex-pats on forums etc... A plasterer who turns up in the UK from Poland can just join any crew with the most basic (or even non-existent) English skills.
So what will the recently arrived refugees do in Germany?
Nothing. The same as now. Remember Mrs Merkel's plea to industry and her new idea to subsidise their qualifications with interest free loans and grants? That's because none of them can find work. They don't speak German, most are unskilled which, as I said, is a closed shop and there is a general weariness of outsiders.
You don't half talk some nonsense sometimes. According to this article, for example, about 50,000 refugees started work in Germany between September 2015 and September 2016. OK, most are still unemployed, but it's simply false to say they aren't getting jobs. Some are, and many others are entering apprenticeships.
When I arrived in Germany in 1998 with no Germany qualifications (edit: and rather limited spoken German), it took me less than a month to find a job as a software developer.
Because software development is unskilled work? I'm sure I could get a job in banking tomorrow if I wanted.
That was a separate point, just to further illustrate that Germany is not the closed shop you think it is. Of course most of the 50,000 are doing less skilled work.
Not without challenges, but not the administrative barriers he mentioned which sounded like it was impossible administratively for them to find work.
They aren't administrative, they are just the basic minimum requirements for employers. Mitartbeiters need qualifications in a way a retail worker wouldn't here.
Translates as "I want it to happen so it must happen".
What causes disaster is rarely things we don't know about but rather things we are sure about but are wrong.
"I don't want it so it won't" is hardly firmer ground?
In any event some at least of my post - such as the well established success of by-election victors in holding their seat at least once more - is objective fact.
I think you'll find it's me who is keeping the open mind and you who is making 'nailed on' predictions.
As to the "well established success of by-election victors in holding their seat at least once more" I don't see you giving any examples. Rather the person giving examples was me and as I showed in London there was a 1/3 record of Liberal holds at the subsequent general election.
Now there are constituencies outside London where the Liberals / SDP / LibDems did hold a byelection gain - Berwick, Isle of Ely, Roxburgh, Glasgow Hillhead, Brecon, Romsey, Eastleigh, Littleborough, Newbury.
But there are a similar number where the Conservatives regained the constituency at the first opportunity - Ripon, Crosby, Portsmouth S, Eastbourne, Ribble Valley, Ryedale, Kincardine, Christchurch, Torrington.
To group LibDem byelection wins from the Conservatives and the subsequent general election
Conservatives win general election and regain lost constituency Torrington Crosby Croydon NW Portsmouth S Ryedale Eastbourne Ribble Valley Kincardine
Conservatives win general election but fail to regain lost constituency Glasgow Hillhead Brecon
Conservatives lose general election but regain lost constituency Sutton & Cheam Ripon Christchurch
Conservatives lose general election and fail to regain lost constituency Orpington Roxburgh Berwick Isle of Ely Newbury Eastleigh Littleborough Romsey
So if the Conservatives win the next general election they are likely to regain Richmond Park and if they lose the next general election they are unlikely to regain Richmond Park.
Wow.
That's a serious amount of work, and extremely persuasive!
A thought for those thinking that they can avoid brexit. When people goto the ballot box and win and it still makes no difference they learn the ballot box doesnt work. When the ballot box ceases to work they fall back on other options
Do you really want to tell 17 million people the ballot box no longer works for them? While most will do little more than grumble there will be enough in there willing to go further to exert their will, even if its only 0.1 percent thats still 17000 people.
The type of people who tend to get upset are hard right UKIP and Tory members, I don't really see them turning over cars and setting them on fire in the streets. They will be annoyed but not as irate as the people with incomes in the lower 50% of the population will be when their living standards noticeably deteriorate.
Well go ahead and try and thwart brexit if you wish but I would suggest that it will likely lead to more incidents like jo cox and it will lie at your door for taking the ballot box from those people. The brexit camp has more people in it than pensioners and like most sections of society they will have enough nutters in it to cause a lot of mess
If people brake the law they will go to jail. Ignoring a referendum that has no legal enforcement applied to it is perfectly acceptable especially given the lies and duplicity that leading members of the current government advocated.
Your attitude is that the people have forfeited your confidence.
A thought for those thinking that they can avoid brexit. When people goto the ballot box and win and it still makes no difference they learn the ballot box doesnt work. When the ballot box ceases to work they fall back on other options
Do you really want to tell 17 million people the ballot box no longer works for them? While most will do little more than grumble there will be enough in there willing to go further to exert their will, even if its only 0.1 percent thats still 17000 people.
The type of people who tend to get upset are hard right UKIP and Tory members, I don't really see them turning over cars and setting them on fire in the streets. They will be annoyed but not as irate as the people with incomes in the lower 50% of the population will be when their living standards noticeably deteriorate.
Yet those same lower 50% of the population have had and will continue to have their living standards noticeably deteriorate because of uncontrolled immigration.
Or is that deemed an acceptable deterioration of living standards ?
Boris Johnson, David Davis and Liam Fox seem to think it acceptable with regard to immigration. They want Brexit but they want the immigration.
The people in the lower 50% of incomes are more likely to have government transfers whether it is Pension, Top up benefits like tax credits, sickness benefits or Unemployment benefits. So I should think that it is better that economic activity is enhanced through immigration and therefore tax revenue to pay transfers than not at all. The point is the people who will be most affected by Brexit and voted Leave did it on a nest of lies.
Both sides lied, lied and lied again. How many Remain voters did it in fear of the End of the World, or "the end of western political civilisation" as Donald Tusk foretold? How many voted Remain because the Remain camp insisted that on Brexit we would have to leave the Single Market, something which is now, suddenly, debatable, especially for those same Remainers?
We don't know who believed what. All we know is that we voted LEAVE. So we LEAVE.
This is ridiculous. I cannot believe I am having arguments with apparently sane adults - on pb of all places - who are actively trying to ignore and subvert the democratic will of the British people, expressed in a once-in-a-lifetime referendum, which the government explicitly promised to obey, in a leaflet sent to all British homes.
This is CRAZY. Stop now.
To some people democracy is only a means to an end.
When democracy no longer leads to that end, or worse away from it, then it can be dispensed with.
You don't half talk some nonsense sometimes. According to this article, for example, about 50,000 refugees started work in Germany between September 2015 and September 2016. OK, most are still unemployed, but it's simply false to say they aren't getting jobs. Some are, and many others are entering apprenticeships.
When I arrived in Germany in 1998 with no Germany qualifications, it took me less than a month to find a job as a software developer.
50000 ? a whole 50000 of the million or so let in? Well that must have really been a boost for the german treasury
Max from the links above from a cursory google it seems that refugees don't face an administrative barrier or closed shop which prevents them finding work. There are of course language and skills barriers that presumably will diminish with time as education and language skills are gained. Will Germain productivity remain as is once these are integrated into the workforce? Well demographics suggest perhaps, but we shall see.
A thought for those thinking that they can avoid brexit. When people goto the ballot box and win and it still makes no difference they learn the ballot box doesnt work. When the ballot box ceases to work they fall back on other options
Do you really want to tell 17 million people the ballot box no longer works for them? While most will do little more than grumble there will be enough in there willing to go further to exert their will, even if its only 0.1 percent thats still 17000 people.
The type of people who tend to get upset are hard right UKIP and Tory members, I don't really see them turning over cars and setting them on fire in the streets. They will be annoyed but not as irate as the people with incomes in the lower 50% of the population will be when their living standards noticeably deteriorate.
Well go ahead and try and thwart brexit if you wish but I would suggest that it will likely lead to more incidents like jo cox and it will lie at your door for taking the ballot box from those people. The brexit camp has more people in it than pensioners and like most sections of society they will have enough nutters in it to cause a lot of mess
If people brake the law they will go to jail. Ignoring a referendum that has no legal enforcement applied to it is perfectly acceptable especially given the lies and duplicity that leading members of the current government advocated.
its break not brake. As to breaking the law why would they give a shit about it? A state that the ballot box no longer works in is not a democracy anymore.
You don't half talk some nonsense sometimes. According to this article, for example, about 50,000 refugees started work in Germany between September 2015 and September 2016. OK, most are still unemployed, but it's simply false to say they aren't getting jobs. Some are, and many others are entering apprenticeships.
When I arrived in Germany in 1998 with no Germany qualifications, it took me less than a month to find a job as a software developer.
50000 ? a whole 50000 of the million or so let in? Well that must have really been a boost for the german treasury
We have the most open labour market in the whole EU. Switzerland and Germany are almost closed shops for unskilled and low skill workers.
The entire EU has freedom of movement, Germany has just increased its workforce with the addition of 1m FAMs. And yet only in the UK is our productivity shocking because of free movement?
I cannot motivate myself to look at the stats for immigrant workforces throughout the EU28 but I find it tricky to believe.
The German labour market is a closed shop like the Swiss one. You either have a German qualification, study for equivalence or don't bother. That isn't the case here.
My gf's friend's bf is from the UK, he's a plasterer by trade and fairly good, but without the specific Swiss qualification for plastering or an equivalency certification he is unable to find steady work and just has to advertise to ex-pats on forums etc... A plasterer who turns up in the UK from Poland can just join any crew with the most basic (or even non-existent) English skills.
So what will the recently arrived refugees do in Germany?
Nothing. The same as now. Remember Mrs Merkel's plea to industry and her new idea to subsidise their qualifications with interest free loans and grants? That's because none of them can find work. They don't speak German, most are unskilled which, as I said, is a closed shop and there is a general weariness of outsiders.
You don't half talk some nonsense sometimes. According to this article, for example, about 50,000 refugees started work in Germany between September 2015 and September 2016. OK, most are still unemployed, but it's simply false to say they aren't getting jobs. Some are, and many others are entering apprenticeships.
When I arrived in Germany in 1998 with no Germany qualifications (edit: and rather limited spoken German), it took me less than a month to find a job as a software developer.
Because software development is unskilled work? I'm sure I could get a job in banking tomorrow if I wanted.
That was a separate point, just to further illustrate that Germany is not the closed shop you think it is. Of course most of the 50,000 are doing less skilled work.
That's a 5% employment rate among refugees. Pretty poor.
We have the most open labour market in the whole EU. Switzerland and Germany are almost closed shops for unskilled and low skill workers.
The entire EU has freedom of movement, Germany has just increased its workforce with the addition of 1m FAMs. And yet only in the UK is our productivity shocking because of free movement?
I cannot motivate myself to look at the stats for immigrant workforces throughout the EU28 but I find it tricky to believe.
The German labour market is a closed shop like the Swiss one. You either have a German qualification, study for equivalence or don't bother. That isn't the case here.
My gf's friend's bf is from the UK, he's a plasterer by trade and fairly good, but without the specific Swiss qualification for plastering or an equivalency certification he is unable to find steady work and just has to advertise to ex-pats on forums etc... A plasterer who turns up in the UK from Poland can just join any crew with the most basic (or even non-existent) English skills.
So what will the recently arrived refugees do in Germany?
Nothing. The same as now. Remember Mrs Merkel's plea to industry and her new idea to subsidise their qualifications with interest free loans and grants? That's because none of them can find work. They don't speak German, most are unskilled which, as I said, is a closed shop and there is a general weariness of outsiders.
You don't half talk some nonsense sometimes. According to this article, for example, about 50,000 refugees started work in Germany between September 2015 and September 2016. OK, most are still unemployed, but it's simply false to say they aren't getting jobs. Some are, and many others are entering apprenticeships.
When I arrived in Germany in 1998 with no Germany qualifications (edit: and rather limited spoken German), it took me less than a month to find a job as a software developer.
You don't half talk some nonsense sometimes. According to this article, for example, about 50,000 refugees started work in Germany between September 2015 and September 2016. OK, most are still unemployed, but it's simply false to say they aren't getting jobs. Some are, and many others are entering apprenticeships.
When I arrived in Germany in 1998 with no Germany qualifications, it took me less than a month to find a job as a software developer.
50000 ? a whole 50000 of the million or so let in? Well that must have really been a boost for the german treasury
50,000 is not zero.
sheesh
an innumerate engineer
not just fearsome but would scare the shit out of most of us
Agreed, but I think the problem is that the unlimited low skilled labour pool provided by the EU takes the pressure off the government and businesses to invest in productivity improvements.
That sounds like a diagnosis in search of a disease and the EU isn't an unlimited pool of low skilled labour in any case.
40,000 Romanian migrants. Shut the fuck up.
Does that explain why our productivity is so much worse than many other EU countries that are tapping into the same pool of labour as us?
We have the most open labour market in the whole EU. Switzerland and Germany are almost closed shops for unskilled and low skill workers.
And Ireland?
Are you arguing that an inflexible labour market is a good thing economically?
In an open immigration system it's not easy to say. On balance probably, yes. At least for unskilled jobs. Closing up shop by requiring "qualifications" for any job is the only way to protect the domestic labour force.
An English hairdresser is no less skilled than a Swiss hairdresser but over here their wages are lower because of immigration driving them down. In Switzerland without the right hairdressing certificate finding a job is impossible so low skilled workers don't go, ensuring domestic workers are paid a decent wage.
Internally flexible, closed externally. This is also a partial explanation as to why German and Swiss workers have been less affected by globalisation as well.
I have friends who have stepped through large numbers of hoops to get Swiss ski instructor qualifications (and these are less onerous than in France), and you are surely right that we do not regulate service jobs anything like as much as some other countries.
But.
We also Fail to train up a large portion of our workforce. Almost nobody leaves the Swiss or German education systems without qualifications for a job. It's designed not to happen. And then the benefits systems are designed to further discourage people from not working.
A thought for those thinking that they can avoid brexit. When people goto the ballot box and win and it still makes no difference they learn the ballot box doesnt work. When the ballot box ceases to work they fall back on other options
Do you really want to tell 17 million people the ballot box no longer works for them? While most will do little more than grumble there will be enough in there willing to go further to exert their will, even if its only 0.1 percent thats still 17000 people.
So as many as a good home turnout at Pompey?
"When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When governments fear the people, there is liberty" - Thomas Jefferson
Stop whining like a bitch.
Aside from La May, you have Davis, Fox and BoJo in charge of getting us out on some terms or other. We will trigger A50 in March after an unnecessary palaver about parliament's involvement, andt then we are on the one way no u-turn road leading out. What terms will there be? Well Continuity Brexiters like you and @Pagan will no doubt worry that it is not hard enough and threaten all kinds of sturm and drang (it's German), but it will be some fudge that will please no one in the end, I imagine. That's democratic politics married to realpolitik for you.
But we will leave, and we will get on with it.
Plus I can't see you at the head of the mob with a pitchfork, it doesn't seem your style.
I genuinely dunno. If Brexit was subverted by some horrible anti-democratic bollocks then I would be very very angry, and ashamed of my country. I'm not sure how I would react. I would be violently furious.
I could see myself as a tacit supporter of forceful political resistance. Woudn't want to get myself arrested, like, but i would be an active *sympathiser*.
And if someone likes me thinks that way, then.....
Best idea: let's not go there. Let's not ignore the vote. Let's make the best of Brexit: like it or not it's what we've chosen.
No one is subverting it. You have three of the finest minds in the country on the case and in charge of it.
Why on earth do you think it can be subverted?
You are creating a romantic fantasy of the little guy fighting against the oppressive state to win a noble victory for democracy. Whereas the state is committed to the same goal as you are. Or do you really worry that a party with nine MPs is going to overthrow the current elected government?
Relax, we're leaving. Chill. Write a book about it.
Agreed, but I think the problem is that the unlimited low skilled labour pool provided by the EU takes the pressure off the government and businesses to invest in productivity improvements.
That sounds like a diagnosis in search of a disease and the EU isn't an unlimited pool of low skilled labour in any case.
40,000 Romanian migrants. Shut the fuck up.
Does that explain why our productivity is so much worse than many other EU countries that are tapping into the same pool of labour as us?
We have the most open labour market in the whole EU. Switzerland and Germany are almost closed shops for unskilled and low skill workers.
And Ireland?
Are you arguing that an inflexible labour market is a good thing economically?
In an open immigration system it's not easy to say. On balance probably, yes. At least for unskilled jobs. Closing up shop by requiring "qualifications" for any job is the only way to protect the domestic labour force.
An English hairdresser is no less skilled than a Swiss hairdresser but over here their wages are lower because of immigration driving them down. In Switzerland without the right hairdressing certificate finding a job is impossible so low skilled workers don't go, ensuring domestic workers are paid a decent wage.
Internally flexible, closed externally. This is also a partial explanation as to why German and Swiss workers have been less affected by globalisation as well.
I have friends who have stepped through large numbers of hoops to get Swiss ski instructor qualifications (and these are less onerous than in France), and you are surely right that we do not regulate service jobs anything like as much as some other countries.
But.
We also Fail to train up a large portion of our workforce. Almost nobody leaves the Swiss or German education systems without qualifications for a job. It's designed not to happen. And then the benefits systems are designed to further discourage people from not working.
The German labour market is a closed shop like the Swiss one. You either have a German qualification, study for equivalence or don't bother. That isn't the case here.
My gf's friend's bf is from the UK, he's a plasterer by trade and fairly good, but without the specific Swiss qualification for plastering or an equivalency certification he is unable to find steady work and just has to advertise to ex-pats on forums etc... A plasterer who turns up in the UK from Poland can just join any crew with the most basic (or even non-existent) English skills.
So what will the recently arrived refugees do in Germany?
Nothing. The same as now. Remember Mrs Merkel's plea to industry and her new idea to subsidise their qualifications with interest free loans and grants? That's because none of them can find work. They don't speak German, most are unskilled which, as I said, is a closed shop and there is a general weariness of outsiders.
You don't half talk some nonsense sometimes. According to this article, for example, about 50,000 refugees started work in Germany between September 2015 and September 2016. OK, most are still unemployed, but it's simply false to say they aren't getting jobs. Some are, and many others are entering apprenticeships.
When I arrived in Germany in 1998 with no Germany qualifications (edit: and rather limited spoken German), it took me less than a month to find a job as a software developer.
Because software development is unskilled work? I'm sure I could get a job in banking tomorrow if I wanted.
That was a separate point, just to further illustrate that Germany is not the closed shop you think it is. Of course most of the 50,000 are doing less skilled work.
That's a 5% employment rate among refugees. Pretty poor.
But it's not the zero that you claimed without any basis whatsoever. It also doesn't include those who have set up their own businesses or are in apprenticeships or education. You gave the impression that they are all sitting around twiddling their thumbs. That is simply not the case.
The German labour market is a closed shop like the Swiss one. You either have a German qualification, study for equivalence or don't bother. That isn't the case here.
My gf's friend's bf is from the UK, he's a plasterer by trade and fairly good, but without the specific Swiss qualification for plastering or an equivalency certification he is unable to find steady work and just has to advertise to ex-pats on forums etc... A plasterer who turns up in the UK from Poland can just join any crew with the most basic (or even non-existent) English skills.
So what will the recently arrived refugees do in Germany?
Nothing. The same as now. Remember Mrs Merkel's plea to industry and her new idea to subsidise their qualifications with interest free loans and grants? That's because none of them can find work. They don't speak German, most are unskilled which, as I said, is a closed shop and there is a general weariness of outsiders.
You don't half talk some nonsense sometimes. According to this article, for example, about 50,000 refugees started work in Germany between September 2015 and September 2016. OK, most are still unemployed, but it's simply false to say they aren't getting jobs. Some are, and many others are entering apprenticeships.
When I arrived in Germany in 1998 with no Germany qualifications (edit: and rather limited spoken German), it took me less than a month to find a job as a software developer.
Because software development is unskilled work? I'm sure I could get a job in banking tomorrow if I wanted.
That was a separate point, just to further illustrate that Germany is not the closed shop you think it is. Of course most of the 50,000 are doing less skilled work.
That's a 5% employment rate among refugees. Pretty poor.
But it's not the zero that you claimed without any basis whatsoever. It also doesn't include those who have set up their own businesses or are in apprenticeships or education. You gave the impression that they are all sitting around twiddling their thumbs. That is simply not the case.
Look at your stupid argument. 5% is a pathetic figure and you're defending it. Also, those who are in apprenticeships and other education are getting into the closed shop.
Interesting chart of Tory constituencies by majority and Remain vote share. There are some on the left of the line (ostensibly the danger zone) where I think it's unlikely the Tories would be in trouble, but also a few below the line where they look vulnerable.
Agreed, but I think the problem is that the unlimited low skilled labour pool provided by the EU takes the pressure off the government and businesses to invest in productivity improvements.
That sounds like a diagnosis in search of a disease and the EU isn't an unlimited pool of low skilled labour in any case.
40,000 Romanian migrants. Shut the fuck up.
Does that explain why our productivity is so much worse than many other EU countries that are tapping into the same pool of labour as us?
We have the most open labour market in the whole EU. Switzerland and Germany are almost closed shops for unskilled and low skill workers.
And Ireland?
Are you arguing that an inflexible labour market is a good thing economically?
In an open immigration system it's not easy to say. On balance probably, yes. At least for unskilled jobs. Closing up shop by requiring "qualifications" for any job is the only way to protect the domestic labour force.
An English hairdresser is no less skilled than a Swiss hairdresser but over here their wages are lower because of immigration driving them down. In Switzerland without the right hairdressing certificate finding a job is impossible so low skilled workers don't go, ensuring domestic workers are paid a decent wage.
Internally flexible, closed externally. This is also a partial explanation as to why German and Swiss workers have been less affected by globalisation as well.
I have friends who have stepped through large numbers of hoops to get Swiss ski instructor qualifications (and these are less onerous than in France), and you are surely right that we do not regulate service jobs anything like as much as some other countries.
But.
We also Fail to train up a large portion of our workforce. Almost nobody leaves the Swiss or German education systems without qualifications for a job. It's designed not to happen. And then the benefits systems are designed to further discourage people from not working.
We need to address both ends of the problem.
Yes, as I said the Swiss education system is enviable and we should copy it. If we are going to be in an open migration system then we may need to close our labour market with similar moves as well to protect the domestic labour force and to stop giving employers an easy way out of training employees and driving up productivity.
Interesting chart of Tory constituencies by majority and Remain vote share. There are some on the left of the line (ostensibly the danger zone) where I think it's unlikely the Tories would be in trouble, but also a few below the line where they look vulnerable.
Yes, lots of low hanging fruit ripe for the picking by Open Europe there, William. If Corbyn would just do one, a Open Alliance would be a formidable force...
A thought for those thinking that they can avoid brexit. When people goto the ballot box and win and it still makes no difference they learn the ballot box doesnt work. When the ballot box ceases to work they fall back on other options
Do you really want to tell 17 million people the ballot box no longer works for them? While most will do little more than grumble there will be enough in there willing to go further to exert their will, even if its only 0.1 percent thats still 17000 people.
The type of people who tend to get upset are hard right UKIP and Tory members, I don't really see them turning over cars and setting them on fire in the streets. They will be annoyed but not as irate as the people with incomes in the lower 50% of the population will be when their living standards noticeably deteriorate.
Yet those same lower 50% of the population have had and will continue to have their living standards noticeably deteriorate because of uncontrolled immigration.
Or is that deemed an acceptable deterioration of living standards ?
.
Both sides lied, lied and lied again. How many Remain voters did it in fear of the End of the World, or "the end of western political civilisation" as Donald Tusk foretold? How many voted Remain because the Remain camp insisted that on Brexit we would have to leave the Single Market, something which is now, suddenly, debatable, especially for those same Remainers?
We don't know who believed what. All we know is that we voted LEAVE. So we LEAVE.
This is ridiculous. I cannot believe I am having arguments with apparently sane adults - on pb of all places - who are actively trying to ignore and subvert the democratic will of the British people, expressed in a once-in-a-lifetime referendum, which the government explicitly promised to obey, in a leaflet sent to all British homes.
This is CRAZY. Stop now.
To some people democracy is only a means to an end.
When democracy no longer leads to that end, or worse away from it, then it can be dispensed with.
The only purpose of democracy is to transfer power or radically change things without violence when there is high dissatisfaction with the status quo. But if it is abused by the majority and there is a sizable minority who remain dissatisfied, then it will not fulfil its purpose. That is the tyranny of the majority. Obviously the obverse is even more true.
To group LibDem byelection wins from the Conservatives and the subsequent general election
Conservatives win general election and regain lost constituency Torrington Crosby Croydon NW Portsmouth S Ryedale Eastbourne Ribble Valley Kincardine
Conservatives win general election but fail to regain lost constituency Glasgow Hillhead Brecon
Conservatives lose general election but regain lost constituency Sutton & Cheam Ripon Christchurch
Conservatives lose general election and fail to regain lost constituency Orpington Roxburgh Berwick Isle of Ely Newbury Eastleigh Littleborough Romsey
So if the Conservatives win the next general election they are likely to regain Richmond Park and if they lose the next general election they are unlikely to regain Richmond Park.
Wow.
That's a serious amount of work, and extremely persuasive!
Thanks - it can be interesting to discover new patterns.
To an extent its logical when you think about it.
When the Conservatives win the subsequent general election it meant that they have recovered ground generally and so were likely to regain the lost constituencies.
When the Conservatives lost the subsequent general election it meant that they didn't recover much ground generally and so were unlikely to regains the lost constituencies.
The exceptions were:
Glasgow Hillhead - bad boundary changes for the Conservatives in 1983 Brecon - Liberal hold by only 56 votes in 1987 and Conservative regain in 1992 Ripon - very safe constituency reverting to normal in 1974 Christchurch - very safe constituency reverting to normal in 1997
and something of an exception to the exceptions Sutton & Cheam - huge swing to the Liberals in 1972, the Liberals then win the GLC constituency in 1973 and then a big swing back to the Conservatives in 1974.
Comments
The rest are just whiny by nature.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-38183906
Conservatives win general election and regain lost constituency
Torrington
Crosby
Croydon NW
Portsmouth S
Ryedale
Eastbourne
Ribble Valley
Kincardine
Conservatives win general election but fail to regain lost constituency
Glasgow Hillhead
Brecon
Conservatives lose general election but regain lost constituency
Sutton & Cheam
Ripon
Christchurch
Conservatives lose general election and fail to regain lost constituency
Orpington
Roxburgh
Berwick
Isle of Ely
Newbury
Eastleigh
Littleborough
Romsey
So if the Conservatives win the next general election they are likely to regain Richmond Park and if they lose the next general election they are unlikely to regain Richmond Park.
Unlike people like Cameron I actually think public consent for the EU is a precious thing and it shouldn't have been squandered by turning the EU into a whipping boy while continuing to make self-inflicted policy errors.
Are you arguing that an inflexible labour market is a good thing economically?
https://twitter.com/CivilLitTweet/status/804741667848933377
An English hairdresser is no less skilled than a Swiss hairdresser but over here their wages are lower because of immigration driving them down. In Switzerland without the right hairdressing certificate finding a job is impossible so low skilled workers don't go, ensuring domestic workers are paid a decent wage.
Internally flexible, closed externally. This is also a partial explanation as to why German and Swiss workers have been less affected by globalisation as well.
Any political party has the freedom to campaign to rejoin the EU. And if they form a government they can then have a referendum on so doing.
I cannot motivate myself to look at the stats for immigrant workforces throughout the EU28 but I find it tricky to believe.
Ar Mad thrilled as a novice over C and D last year but missed the championship races. He impressed with the speed and accuracy of his jumping and is a very interesting contender with scope to improve. However the horses he beat last year, although decent sorts, leave him needing improvement.
Gods Own is an honest horse who claimed the scalp of the late Vautour when winning his Grade 1 at Punchestown in the spring. He really needs decent ground which in most years he wouldn't get here but after the dry autumn he has his surface. Whilst effective at this trip I have a suspicion he's better over further and he has a tendency to hit the odd one having ended up on the deck last time he ran at Sandown. Not out of it.
Sire de Grugy has won this twice as well as a Champion Chase and if he kicks for home at the Pond Fence nobody will be shouting louder than me. A somewhat indifferent season last year despite his win here but in his prep race three weeks ago at Ascot he looked to be back on song, travelling well and the likely winner a long way out. He's a real battleship and sure to be there or thereabouts but at almost 11 is age catching up?
Sir Valentino represents the same trainer as Gods Own, and has improved plenty in handicaps over the last 18 months. Despite a game win at Exeter last time, he looks outclassed here.
Un de Sceaux comes over from Ireland representing Willie Mullins. A brilliant winner of the Arkle two seasons ago, he was beaten by the resurgent Sprinter Sacre in this year's Champion Chase. He has a tendency to guess at the odd fence and acts on the ground but is arguably better with more cut. Worthy favourite, and has beaten most of the others but not without vulnerability.
Vibrato Valtat completes the line up. He actually started favourite for this last year and although he's been finishing fourth and fifth in many recent races he often hasn't been beaten far. The stable had a difficult season last year and it's not impossible he could outrun his odds here. But he seems to be one of those horses who doesn't quite have the tactical pace of the specialist 2 milers but gets outstayed over 2 and a half.
Ar Mad and Un de Sceaux like to lead so a tremendous pace is guaranteed. That might set it up for something from off the pace. I'd love Sire de Grugy to take a third Tingle Creek but I worry that despite his win last time out the balance of last season's form suggested he might have declined a little. If God's Own is ever to win a Tingle Creek it will have to be tomorrow as good ground is rare at Sandown in December. 2 mile chases are all about rhythm and jumping and especially down the back at Sandown. If they go off fast and he jumps well behind, God's Own just may reel them in up the straight. If you can get 4-1 or more that may be fair value.
Still, I reckon the LibDems would have held Littleborough in 1997 if it had still existed
As with most things Anglicanism is a via media. It tries to triangulate between the Church and Papacy as a source of authority on one hand and Sola Scriptura on the other.
Too many Leavers are being Calvinist about this and thus becoming unpleasant extremists. They are saying the meaning of Brexit was fixed in the early hours of June 24th and any other critical reflection is not only unnecessary but wrong and heretical.
But the whole point of Anglicanism was it was a Soft Brexit from the Reformation that suited the English character well. We don't like extremes.
But there are at least four other factors I can suggest as well.
My gf's friend's bf is from the UK, he's a plasterer by trade and fairly good, but without the specific Swiss qualification for plastering or an equivalency certification he is unable to find steady work and just has to advertise to ex-pats on forums etc... A plasterer who turns up in the UK from Poland can just join any crew with the most basic (or even non-existent) English skills.
Others should bet appropriately...
Perhaps you should convert.
I don't know what will happen but I doubt anything is 'nailed on'.
I still think that the best result given May has no mandate is to do nothing until after the next general election. Kick it into the long grass and the nutters who want Brexit on any terms can go to hell. Brexit proponents before June mislead the population and it is for their own good it is not enacted. I know this will enrage some who hold Brexit dearly but their will be bigger riots if the economy goes down the toilet through Brexit than their will be if Brexit is aborted.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/02/what-progressive-parties-can-learn-from-the-richmond-park-result?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
Just checking I'm in 2016 still
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/02/police-investigate-tweet-jo-cox-mp-anna-soubry?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
Do you really want to tell 17 million people the ballot box no longer works for them? While most will do little more than grumble there will be enough in there willing to go further to exert their will, even if its only 0.1 percent thats still 17000 people.
You're going to get your brexit. It may not be the variant you want though. That will take into account the wishes of the 48% who didn't vote your way.
https://twitter.com/COdendahl/status/804688322920648704
My point is if brexit doesnt happen then what is the point of campaigning for brexit, even if a vote is held there would be no belief it would be honoured so people would stop using peaceful means
Or is that deemed an acceptable deterioration of living standards ?
"Your UK isn't safe in their hands"
It's amazing how detached from reality most ultra-Remainers are in terms of how their behaviour is perceived.
People need to get real, the reason why the UK needs immigration is to counter demographics. I don't like it but without an enlarged tax payer base i.e. more immigrants. When future tax payers retire their is not going to be enough tax payers to support the next waves of retirement aged individuals. We have just seen Hammond lift pension age to 70 in the Autumn statement.
The people in the lower 50% of incomes are more likely to have government transfers whether it is Pension, Top up benefits like tax credits, sickness benefits or Unemployment benefits. So I should think that it is better that economic activity is enhanced through immigration and therefore tax revenue to pay transfers than not at all. The point is the people who will be most affected by Brexit and voted Leave did it on a nest of lies.
Aside from La May, you have Davis, Fox and BoJo in charge of getting us out on some terms or other. We will trigger A50 in March after an unnecessary palaver about parliament's involvement, and then we are on the one way no u-turn road leading out. What terms will there be? Well Continuity Brexiters like you and @Pagan will no doubt worry that it is not hard enough and threaten all kinds of sturm and drang (it's German), but it will be some fudge that will please no one in the end, I imagine. That's democratic politics married to realpolitik for you.
But we will leave, and we will get on with it.
Plus I can't see you at the head of the mob with a pitchfork, it doesn't seem your style.
My first thought was I would tell them to use the ballot box but then of course they would just reply done that, won, been ignored. An argument difficult to refute
When I arrived in Germany in 1998 with no Germany qualifications (edit: and rather limited spoken German), it took me less than a month to find a job as a software developer.
https://refugees.telekom.de/en/living-in-germany/working/getting-a-job-124918
dw.com/en/the-challenge-of-finding-jobs-for-refugees-in-germany/a-36574268
And for @MaxPB.
Not without challenges, but not the administrative barriers he mentioned which sounded like it was impossible administratively for them to find work.
That's a serious amount of work, and extremely persuasive!
When democracy no longer leads to that end, or worse away from it, then it can be dispensed with.
Max from the links above from a cursory google it seems that refugees don't face an administrative barrier or closed shop which prevents them finding work. There are of course language and skills barriers that presumably will diminish with time as education and language skills are gained. Will Germain productivity remain as is once these are integrated into the workforce? Well demographics suggest perhaps, but we shall see.
an innumerate engineer
not just fearsome but would scare the shit out of most of us
stay away from any project involving people
But.
We also Fail to train up a large portion of our workforce. Almost nobody leaves the Swiss or German education systems without qualifications for a job. It's designed not to happen. And then the benefits systems are designed to further discourage people from not working.
We need to address both ends of the problem.
Why on earth do you think it can be subverted?
You are creating a romantic fantasy of the little guy fighting against the oppressive state to win a noble victory for democracy. Whereas the state is committed to the same goal as you are. Or do you really worry that a party with nine MPs is going to overthrow the current elected government?
Relax, we're leaving. Chill. Write a book about it.
The key problems with the system are that they encourage people to have larger families and live in homes/areas they cannot reasonably afford.
To an extent its logical when you think about it.
When the Conservatives win the subsequent general election it meant that they have recovered ground generally and so were likely to regain the lost constituencies.
When the Conservatives lost the subsequent general election it meant that they didn't recover much ground generally and so were unlikely to regains the lost constituencies.
The exceptions were:
Glasgow Hillhead - bad boundary changes for the Conservatives in 1983
Brecon - Liberal hold by only 56 votes in 1987 and Conservative regain in 1992
Ripon - very safe constituency reverting to normal in 1974
Christchurch - very safe constituency reverting to normal in 1997
and something of an exception to the exceptions Sutton & Cheam - huge swing to the Liberals in 1972, the Liberals then win the GLC constituency in 1973 and then a big swing back to the Conservatives in 1974.