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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour has many things to worry about at the moment – losing its deposit in Richmond isn’t one of them
Giant Goldsmith crushed by miniature rival. pic.twitter.com/UfyYmcXCJO
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Con 39 (-2)
Lab 27 (-1)
LD 9 (nc)
UKIP 14 (+2)
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/12/02/voting-intention-conservatives-39-labour-27/
Interesting, that YouGov poll has more people saying Leaving the EU was the wrong decision than saying it was the right decision
The fact that the party is at war with itself and cannot articulate a shared view of its policy on:
- austerity
- Brexit
- LHR3
- Trident
to pick just a few, is its more fundamental problem.
Next thread?
My guess would be either Sainz - who is demonstrably quick, mature, relatively cheap, and looking for drive with a top team or Perez/Bottas whose teams Merc can lean on a bit as engine supplier (Perez looking the better of the two to me).
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/804712202976526337
Quick reading of the breakdown of figures suggests they broadly follow other recent polls:
Labour ahead amongst under 40s. Tories ahead amongst over 40s. However, of course, there are more voters in the latter category, they are more likely to vote, and the Tory lead amongst pensioners is enormous - 54:17 in this poll, with Labour almost at parity with Ukip.
Tories have a 28pt lead in the South outside London. This is very nearly as big as the lead held by the SNP over the second party in Scotland. The difference: the combined South-East, South-West and Eastern regions contain almost four times the number of voters and therefore return four times as many MPs as Scotland does. A catastrophe for Labour.
The Tories have a 13pt lead over Labour in the Midlands, and the two are within margin of error in London and Scotland. This poll does give Labour a 5pt lead in the North - but it also puts Ukip on 18% in the Midlands and North.
The Lib Dems are on 13% in London, in a survey taken (of course) before the Richmond Park by-election. This may suggest a path back to relevance as a party for well-to-do left libs dismayed at Corbyn's lack of zeal on the EU, but only time will tell of course.
Corbyn's ratings in a head-to-head with May continue to be abysmal, despite the fact that most respondents think the Government is handling Brexit badly. The SNP continues to look unassailable.
Only someone who doesn't understand polling would think unweighted numbers are the way to go.
Edit: Err where do you get the unweighted figure of 46-43 from?
Are you confusing the 46-43 score with the 46-43 score the last time they asked the question?
Mr. B, although I'm undecided as yet, Alonso for the title has the advantage it might come off (or be hedgeable) even if he's at McLaren, due to engine's not being restricted and Prodromou[sp] giving a big advantage.
Edited extra bit: was going to put on a smidgen at 21, but Alonso's dropped to 13. Humbug.
So they find themselves trapped within a party that can deliver neither their ideals nor their ambitions.
But I agree with the rest of your post.
I hope so. Bye bye, socialism.
Brexit - No precedent, just 'the polls'.
Lib Dem Richmond Gain - High by-election swings to the Lib Dems are not entirely without precedent !
We'll have to see how the raw vote in Sleaford is next week but Zac's defeat could indicate a very decent Lib Dem return from the 2017 locals is my first thought(1).
If Sleaford is a low turnout unexceptional Con win then I'll be even more convinced of lemma (1)
Today's result for Labour is appalling, can't even keep a deposit with a non Corbynite candidate fighting against an unknown Lib Dem.
They may take our deposits, but they shall never take our red flags!
I stand to be proven spectacularly wrong by events, but I suspect that if Labour does die it will be a very long drawn out process...
https://medium.com/@rortybomb/learning-from-trump-in-retrospect-dce431b23ed0#.3iztmtpti
This time around, all the polls find too many people claiming to have voted LD in 2015. I can't think of any where the unweighted base has less than 8% for 2015, and some have as high as 12% of respondents saying they voted for the party in 2015. (That means a third of those people are misremembering voting for them last year.) The consequence of this is that the LDs are being downweighted in the polls.
What I take from this is that the LDs are doing 'ok', and are probably on 10-11%.
But we shall see. May 2017 will be very interesting.
Firstly, being pro-EU is possible without being a full-blown federalist.
Secondly, the Blair and Cameron eras were before the referendum. Even many of those who would have preferred a Remain victory want the democratic result to be implemented.
The Lib Dems will benefit from the continuing uncertainty ahead of Article 50 being triggered (if it is) and Labour having the worst leader since Honorius.
EDIT - I see Mr Rentool has already done the maths upthread.
Under those circumstances and emboldened by the voters of Richmond I can easily imagine an anti Brexit movement starting in parliament and instead of the platitudes about 'respecting democracy' they can stand proud and talk about the contempt with which our new Brexiteer leaders treated the voters during the campaign
These arrogant posh boys think the public will back their miscalculated agendas. This year has seen the political careers of two Eton old boys vanish into the flickering flames of defeat. I shed no tears for Goldsmith, he is rich and hardly needs the job to support his family.
Surely Richmond Park Conservatives will never have Goldsmith back as a candidate? I can understand his opposition to Heathrow and instigating a by - election in 2010 but to reiterate it in 2015 was stupid. It is going to happen whether Richmond Park is held by Lib Dem, Conservative or an Independent
I cannot understand this obsession with referendums, the Lib Dems wanting another one on the EU is no guarantee that the public will back the position. Personally, I don't think the UK should ever have a referendum again, they are divisive and the outcome is always open to question. From the ignorant people I have had the misfortune to encounter since the June vote meant anything from sending all the colours home, to getting manufacturing back. Neither of which is going to happen if and when we leave the EU. I have seen directly two EU referendum related hate crimes in public places. I encouraged the EU nationals to report it to the police. In one confrontation an Irish man, who was a construction worker had a wine glass thrown at him and was spat at and told to go home in no uncertain terms. Another incident I have observed involved a delivery van driver verbally assault a woman working in a shop because of her name sounding eastern European. She was born in England to English parents and her husband was also born in England. I am disgusted by this sort of behaviour, it is not the way a civilised society should work.
I still cannot work out why any sane person is willing to take an economic hit to exit the EU when globalisation is going to carry on regardless and the nation state of the 19th century is never going to return. I certainly will be voting Labour or Lib Dem at the next election as the Tories have screwed things up massively.
The constituency voted to Remain in the referendum. Then, as now, one constituency doesn't outweigh the general result of the whole country.
That's a difficult square to circle, but the contempt with which those who had genuine concerns over migration were treated and the utter failure to come up with a solution means that feeling of division is not going to dissipate soon.
If we end up staying in, the bitterness and resentment could become dangerously high.
This week it has already been stated we're staying in Justice bits, that we'd continue to contribute to the EU budget, and as Mr Observer will tell you, we've signed up to more competences for the CJEU.
BINO.
Don't underestimate the awesomeness of the Tory ground game, which saw this.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/09/13/corbyns-english-challenge/
The Conservatives are in rude health in the polls. But other parties are available.
Constituency voted Leave. Everyone on the ballot except Ross Pepper (Lib Dem) is a Leaver. Lib Dems were in 4th in 2015 and although fighting valiantly have so far put nothing like the resources in that went to Witney and Richmond Park. What I will personally be looking for are the following 3 things:
1 signs of the Remain vote coalescing around the Lib Dems, including whether there is any practical support from any of the cross-party Remain groups
2 whether the UKIP vote holds up
3 whether the Labour vote holds up
Having done several days in Witney for the Lib Dems and several days in Richmond Park, including helping with both polling days, I'm spending this weekend in Sleaford. I'm taking cake and cheese, both of which are essential to fuel Lib Dem by-election offices.
(Median wages rose in Switzerland and Germany, both of whom have educational systems that concentrate on giving "the next 60%" employable skills.)
MrsB, that does sound interesting. When's it due?
Agree re: Point 2 and I see a more nuanced tone from Farron emerging whereby the vote against A50 is more a sense of frustration at not having a clear sense of where the Government wants us to go rather than a desire to "block" the vote. The argument is more time and more preparation (and indeed more debate within the country) is needed to establish what it is we want from the post-EU relationship.
The second part of that is a referendum on the terms of whatever final treaty emerges. That's fine - no problem - but Farron needs to explain what would happen if the treaty was rejected and what he would have included/excluded to obtain a YES vote.
http://thelincolnite.co.uk/2016/12/watch-sleaford-north-hykeham-election-candidates-brexit-nhs-transport/
Extremely thorough !
I can't remember any discussion at the time. It might be a rare issue on which - shock horror - I'd sympathise with Bill Cash.
Meanwhile, O/T, a further reminder that Labour does indeed have plenty more to worry about...
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/804733821941936128
Send them back home' Ukip candidate's 'false claim over son blown up in Afghanistan'
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3045289/Send-home-Ukip-candidate-s-false-claim-son-blown-Afghanistan.html
And there would still be inadequate infrastructure.
It's complicated, this stuff. If it was simple, someone would have sorted it long ago.
Agree with you that the feeling of division is not about to dissipate any time soon - whether we stay in, have a hard Brexit or a soft Brexit.
MrsB, with inflation at 0.9% or so, a rise is no bad thing.
At her current pace, Clinton will overtake Trump in Wisconsin in approximately 74 and a half years.
Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2016/12/02/first-day-of-wisconsin-recount-nets-hillary-one-vote/#ixzz4RhbnWBS8
a) More houses. Certain Greenbelt land sadly has to go, as a countermeasure beef up various wildlife/landscpe protections.
b) A contributory benefits system, with some sort of fee based access system as @rcs1000 has repeatedly refferred to here.
c) The ability to take hard decisions on this stuff even when toes are trod on.
edit: looking at Wiki, there were six in November 2012 on two separate dates. Corby was the only surprise result.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_by-elections_(2010–present)
Economy stagnant? Brexit
Immigration? Brexit
NHS funding? Brexit
http://vote.sos.ca.gov/
Joke nation.
Trump 269 Clinton 1,003
New
Trump 267 Clinton 1,002
1.4 KILLS exporters whilst 1.1 makes everything way too expensive from Europe.
Podcast of Trumps pollster.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ThePollsters/status/804520297735004161
Such voters won't admit they were wrong. They'll feel more right that ever. The same villains, politicians and the EU, will have botched Brexit in the way they bothedvEUnmembership.
Meanwhile people like me will be screaming I told you so. Elated to be proved right but bitter that Brexit happened anyway.
If I'm right, nd recently I haven't been right, we're heading towards a period of angry cultural decline where Brexit is everything and nothing in British politics.