So Trump isn't going to be good for free trade is he?
President-elect Donald Trump says US will quit Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal on his first day in office
American jobs for American workers.
Quite. The yanks aren't buying our steel are they
America has both a large internal market, and alot of potentially exploitable resources along with (for now) the world's reserve currency. It'll also take a while to "turn the oil tanker" into a preotectionist position - all of the above most likely means that Trump is going to have a boom for the first four years of his leadership, I reckon he'll time his bust for when he leaves too.
China is his big satan and its had its card marked as if that were needed
China isn't a TPP member! It''s biggest members are US allies Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Japan.
I know - card marking I said
China is said to be really chuffed about the TPP evaporating - the countries involved will need to look for another big trading partner. TPP was partly conceived to limit Chinese influence, in the same way that EU expansion was intended to avoid countries like Bulgaria falling back into dependence on Russia.
China is his big satan and its had its card marked as if that were needed
China isn't a TPP member! It''s biggest members are US allies Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Japan.
I know - card marking I said
China is said to be really chuffed about the TPP evaporating - the countries involved will need to look for another big trading partner. TPP was partly conceived to limit Chinese influence, in the same way that EU expansion was intended to avoid countries like Bulgaria falling back into dependence on Russia.
Whoever said China is (would be?) chuffed obviously considered that the thwarted TPP countries will rush into the arms of their saviour China. I'm not so sure they're that stupid.
Fillon as Ted Cruz is a nice caricature that the French left would love (if they knew who Cruz was) but it is as far away from reality as saying that Ed Milliband is Kim Jong-Un.
Socially conservative? As someone not opposed to gay marriage and abortion, Fillon is not even close to a US Republican. He has no major difference with Le Pen on this (a lot of her supporters are more conservative than she is, so is always prudent on these issues).
Thatcherite? France has the 2nd highest public spending level in Europe and has added 1 million civil servants since 2000. Even if Fillon managed to reduce the size of the public sector by 500 000 workers, France would still be a very large state, 2 million more civil servants than in the UK...
Le Pen's appeal is all in the anti-elite mood (even if she literally inherited her dad's business) . For her, Juppé was a much easier target and Macron would be a dream. Fillon does not look and sound like a technocrat (like Juppé) or a jet-setter (like Sarkozy) .
Fillon opposed same sex marriage and has stated personal opposition to abortion. He's a fairly standard conservative catholic in that regard. But they will not be issues themselves in the campaign - the problem is that it will make it harder to rally the left around him in round 2. If he is the LR candidate he will be monstered by the Left in round 1 for these views as they desperately try to knock him out. They will struggle to convince their voters to come out for him in round 2.
France would still be a statist place even with his reforms, but French voters aren't going to compare the size of their state with the UK before voting, in French terms, what he is proposing is thatcherite.
Fillon is an ex-PM, it will be impossible to escape being portrayed as a member of the elite.
If you are a member of the French left, the normal left not the bobo left, and in round 2 you are faced with two candidates who both are more or less on the same page re Radical Islam and Russia, and you have one who is talking your language on globalisation, big business, protectionism, and the other proposing the opposite of what you support, I think they will either abstain, or vote Le Pen.
Do you think she beats Macron in the second round? Or just Fillon?
But isn't Macron also for economic deregulation and liberalization? Hasn't he been the target of union protests? It seems to me that the voters who'd baulk at Fillon might also baulk at Macron.
Macron has centered his whole campaign on an economically liberal and socially liberal platform. He has no chance to attract working-class voters but I think he could beat Le Pen with the support of traditional centre-right voters (especially catholics that tend to reject Le Pen).
However this second round remains unlikely because Macron's main problem is that the left and centre-left will probably have at least 6 candidates: 2 trotskyst candidates, Melenchon, a socialist, a Green and himself. All the others are strongly anti-Macron and will maintain their candidacies even if none of them has a chance. For one of them to get around 20% to qualify for the second round seems very difficult.
"A historian has discovered a royal decree issued to Donald Trump’s grandfather ordering him to leave Germany and never come back.
Friedrich Trump, a German, was issued with the document in February 1905, and ordered to leave the kingdom of Bavaria within eight weeks as punishment for having failed to do mandatory military service and failing to give authorities notice of his departure to the US when he first emigrated in 1885. Roland Paul, a historian from Rhineland-Palatinate who found the document in local archives, told the tabloid Bild: “Friedrich Trump emigrated from Germany to the USA in 1885. However, he failed to de-register from his homeland and had not carried out his military service, which is why the authorities rejected his attempt at repatriation.”
The decree orders the “American citizen and pensioner Friedrich Trump” to leave the area “at the very latest on 1 May ... or else expect to be deported”. Bild called the archive find an “unspectacular piece of paper”, that had nevertheless “changed world history”.
Do you think she beats Macron in the second round? Or just Fillon?
But isn't Macron also for economic deregulation and liberalization? Hasn't he been the target of union protests? It seems to me that the voters who'd baulk at Fillon might also baulk at Macron.
Macron has centered his whole campaign on an economically liberal and socially liberal platform. He has no chance to attract working-class voters but I think he could beat Le Pen with the support of traditional centre-right voters (especially catholics that tend to reject Le Pen).
However this second round remains unlikely because Macron's main problem is that the left and centre-left will probably have at least 6 candidates: 2 trotskyst candidates, Melenchon, a socialist, a Green and himself. All the others are strongly anti-Macron and will maintain their candidacies even if none of them has a chance. For one of them to get around 20% to qualify for the second round seems very difficult.
Unless Bayrou decides not to stand.
What could Macron offer him?
There is no polling evidence for now, but I suspect that if Bayrou does not stand, part of his support would go to Fillon (some traditional christian-democrats still vote Bayrou as his party is the direct heir of old christian-democratic parties).
Macron could offer him a top ministry but doing a public deal with 65 year old Bayrou (already an MP when Macron was 7) would not be very consistent with his renewal message.
Their common problem would be that to form a government they would need a majority of MPs. They start with around a dozen Macron supporters and 2 for Bayrou, out of 577.
Do you think she beats Macron in the second round? Or just Fillon?
But isn't Macron also for economic deregulation and liberalization? Hasn't he been the target of union protests? It seems to me that the voters who'd baulk at Fillon might also baulk at Macron.
Macron has centered his whole campaign on an economically liberal and socially liberal platform. He has no chance to attract working-class voters but I think he could beat Le Pen with the support of traditional centre-right voters (especially catholics that tend to reject Le Pen).
However this second round remains unlikely because Macron's main problem is that the left and centre-left will probably have at least 6 candidates: 2 trotskyst candidates, Melenchon, a socialist, a Green and himself. All the others are strongly anti-Macron and will maintain their candidacies even if none of them has a chance. For one of them to get around 20% to qualify for the second round seems very difficult.
Thanks Chris. How is Paris treating you in comparison to Bethesda? I am now working in your old stomping ground, consulting at NIH in the old stone house on campus.
"At no time in the modern era, if we take that as meaning the period since 1970, has Labour in opposition gone up in the polls from this point. Between 1993 and 1997, a youthful and popular Tony Blair managed to keep the party's ratings high all the way through to an election - the polling score fell only by 0.4 per cent. But that is the exception. In fact, at this point in Parliament, Labour while in opposition has on average lost 7.2 per cent."
Worth a thread
tories and Labour never go below 160 seats. It would take meltdown in Wales and Midland Cities to go below 160 for Labour. Unlikely.
Even on the basis of current polls Labour would probably have more than 200 seats.
China is his big satan and its had its card marked as if that were needed
China isn't a TPP member! It''s biggest members are US allies Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Japan.
I know - card marking I said
China is said to be really chuffed about the TPP evaporating - the countries involved will need to look for another big trading partner. TPP was partly conceived to limit Chinese influence, in the same way that EU expansion was intended to avoid countries like Bulgaria falling back into dependence on Russia.
Whoever said China is (would be?) chuffed obviously considered that the thwarted TPP countries will rush into the arms of their saviour China. I'm not so sure they're that stupid.
it's all about business. Didn't you hear Duterte the other day?
even while Chinese media is constantly framing Japan in the worst possible light, it's actually a lot easier for Japanese to do business in China (e.g. UK national requires a visa to attend a conference, Japanese don't)
Businesses need customers, and I'd guess Asia isn't really interested in crashing the world economy, even if that's what trump seems to have in mind
The alt-right are the new global conspiracy - they're everywhere and nowhere.
The alt-right is the new boogeyman for lefties. But as far as I can tell it seems to mainly consists of kids posting memes. Perhaps if you candidate is defeated by such people the problem really lies with your party and policies?
Don't forget "Fake News". The webbles are all too stupid to realise it is fake and results in votes for Brexit and Trump.
Fake news is a big problem... Much of it is very convincing (it's designed to be) - and it gets shared and reshared when it's believable and sounds true. It's not limited to one side or the other either.
It's particularly ironic when you think that many of the posters on this website have been fooled by the fake news!
Important CNN update: Vote totals updated by significant amount - Trump has dropped to 46.7%.
However I'm puzzled as none of the individual states have been updated in the last three days. So not sure what they've done.
The power of the pb.com online pressue group!
Maybe if Americans were allowed to bet on the election, there might be a chance that the result would take less than a fortnight to declare. I fear my £90 that's currently earning Shadsy interest won't be paid out before Christmas!
China is his big satan and its had its card marked as if that were needed
China isn't a TPP member! It''s biggest members are US allies Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Japan.
I know - card marking I said
China is said to be really chuffed about the TPP evaporating - the countries involved will need to look for another big trading partner. TPP was partly conceived to limit Chinese influence, in the same way that EU expansion was intended to avoid countries like Bulgaria falling back into dependence on Russia.
But China is interested in exports, not imports so on no basis is it even close to a replacement trading partner. And they will be very concerned that this is the first step towards seriously interfering with their own access to the US market, access on which so much of their success has been built.
I think that there is little doubt that there are going to be a number of retreats from free trade over the next 4 years. It will be interesting to see if this has any of the adverse consequences that its champions would claim it would.
Comments
France would still be a statist place even with his reforms, but French voters aren't going to compare the size of their state with the UK before voting, in French terms, what he is proposing is thatcherite.
Fillon is an ex-PM, it will be impossible to escape being portrayed as a member of the elite.
If you are a member of the French left, the normal left not the bobo left, and in round 2 you are faced with two candidates who both are more or less on the same page re Radical Islam and Russia, and you have one who is talking your language on globalisation, big business, protectionism, and the other proposing the opposite of what you support, I think they will either abstain, or vote Le Pen.
What could Macron offer him?
Friedrich Trump, a German, was issued with the document in February 1905, and ordered to leave the kingdom of Bavaria within eight weeks as punishment for having failed to do mandatory military service and failing to give authorities notice of his departure to the US when he first emigrated in 1885.
Roland Paul, a historian from Rhineland-Palatinate who found the document in local archives, told the tabloid Bild: “Friedrich Trump emigrated from Germany to the USA in 1885. However, he failed to de-register from his homeland and had not carried out his military service, which is why the authorities rejected his attempt at repatriation.”
The decree orders the “American citizen and pensioner Friedrich Trump” to leave the area “at the very latest on 1 May ... or else expect to be deported”. Bild called the archive find an “unspectacular piece of paper”, that had nevertheless “changed world history”.
Macron could offer him a top ministry but doing a public deal with 65 year old Bayrou (already an MP when Macron was 7) would not be very consistent with his renewal message.
Their common problem would be that to form a government they would need a majority of MPs. They start with around a dozen Macron supporters and 2 for Bayrou, out of 577.
However I'm puzzled as none of the individual states have been updated in the last three days. So not sure what they've done.
even while Chinese media is constantly framing Japan in the worst possible light, it's actually a lot easier for Japanese to do business in China (e.g. UK national requires a visa to attend a conference, Japanese don't)
Businesses need customers, and I'd guess Asia isn't really interested in crashing the world economy, even if that's what trump seems to have in mind
It's particularly ironic when you think that many of the posters on this website have been fooled by the fake news!
I think that there is little doubt that there are going to be a number of retreats from free trade over the next 4 years. It will be interesting to see if this has any of the adverse consequences that its champions would claim it would.