So Juppe massively failed against expectations. Unsurprising as he seemed to offer little real promise of change from the Hollande era, and was basically the French Hillary Clinton.
Fillon is the most anglo-saxon market conservative in his outlook, and I don't see that being popular in France at the moment. Just look at the backlash to the recent labour reforms proposed by Hollande.
Le Pen will clean up big time amongst the socialist base (not the "bobo" parisian types of course) in the second round.
Juppé is Cameron, Fillon is May and Sarkozy is Farage, if one were forced to pick. (Fillon is more Catholic though!)
The issues are a bit morez complictaed IMHO.
yes Fillon is pro-market, but he is also very conservative on many non-economic issues. The kind of issues that could lead some right-wing voters to vote e Pen against Juppé, but not against Fillon.
Besides, Le Pen is absolutely hated by the socialist base. Their main (and often only) belief these days is opposition to the Front National and support for muslims. The socialists would probably have difficulties mobilizing for Fillon but very very few would even consider voting Le Pen.
The socialist base has not been working class for many many years now. The working class and unemployed already care the basis of Le Pen. The PS base is bobos + teachers and other mid-rank civil servants.
he's Catholic conservative on social issues, anti-abortion, etc
If Le Pen is smart (which she is) she'll try to push him into a corner on his gay rights record and pose as their defender against islamification of society.
In the great western democracies we might be seeing a new realignment, from Left versus Right to Centre Right versus Hard Right.
And yet somehow, Corbyn...
If UKIP get their act together they could be the main opposition to the Tories within two cycles.
UKIP could do better than that.
May: "Let's give lots of visas to Indians in return for investment" Corbyn: "We are the party of immigration" Farron: "Let's stay in the EU"
(I write as a Remainer, just to be clear. But against the three main parties in the Commons, UKIP probably won't have a difficult ride, so long as they get themselves a leader and stop manhandling each other. Breitbart and Trump may be able to help.)
Nah. UKIP won only one seat at the GE and that with a reduced majority against a Cameroonite. UKIP will remain a fringe party, even more so after Brexit, following which they may well expire.
Who would their voters switch to? Things have changed. The vibe at the next election may be anywhere from halfway between the GE2015 vibe and the EUref vibe to well on the other side of the EUref vibe. What are people in the Leavite horde supposed to think, having voted Leave on immigration, when Corbyn says he loves immigration, Farron says let's stay in the EU, and May says "er"? Maybe Steve Bannon could help with the UKIP campaign. The line that the Tories didn't hear the voters' message could be quite successful.
Not everyone is obsessed by immigration, and those that are will vote for May's Brexiting Tories, not UKIP.
If it's possible to bet on a first round outright victory in France it might offer some value. Either people thinking they get a free protest vote for Le Pen who end up pushing her over the line, or a consolidation around Fillon.
Unless the field consolidates mightily, there is no chance of a first round victory for anyone.
If it's possible to bet on a first round outright victory in France it might offer some value. Either people thinking they get a free protest vote for Le Pen who end up pushing her over the line, or a consolidation around Fillon.
Unless the field consolidates mightily, there is no chance of a first round victory for anyone.
We weren't so far off a first round victory in the Republicains primary despite a large field and no-one predicting the result.
An outright win this time would equal the shock value of Le Pen pere making the run off in 2002.
What is often ignored is that Cromwell was a convinced "protestant" (yes, bit anachronistic to use that). Part of the charges against him were that he was said to have said that he was guiding the King down the hard core reformation path and that he would "prevent" the King from turning back....
One interpretation of his fall was that Henry wanted Catholicism without the Pope - basically Cromwell went too far and so he got the chop.
Another is that he was sacrificed by the King to send a message to the nobility that the reformation was not going Lutheran...
Notably, around the time he fell, there was an execution of Catholics for refusing to acknowledge the Supremacy and an execution of "protestants" for being heretics.
Quite right, Mr. Malmesbury. However, I can't help feeling that Cromwell's efforts in arranging the King's forth wife might have had something to do with his downfall. He upset the King on a matter that was more important to Henry than religion.
So Juppe massively failed against expectations. Unsurprising as he seemed to offer little real promise of change from the Hollande era, and was basically the French Hillary Clinton.
Fillon is the most anglo-saxon market conservative in his outlook, and I don't see that being popular in France at the moment. Just look at the backlash to the recent labour reforms proposed by Hollande.
Le Pen will clean up big time amongst the socialist base (not the "bobo" parisian types of course) in the second round.
Juppé is Cameron, Fillon is May and Sarkozy is Farage, if one were forced to pick. (Fillon is more Catholic though!)
The issues are a bit morez complictaed IMHO.
yes Fillon is pro-market, but he is also very conservative on many non-economic issues. The kind of issues that could lead some right-wing voters to vote e Pen against Juppé, but not against Fillon.
Besides, Le Pen is absolutely hated by the socialist base. Their main (and often only) belief these days is opposition to the Front National and support for muslims. The socialists would probably have difficulties mobilizing for Fillon but very very few would even consider voting Le Pen.
The socialist base has not been working class for many many years now. The working class and unemployed already care the basis of Le Pen. The PS base is bobos + teachers and other mid-rank civil servants.
Thanks for the Fillon tip. I got on at 5.7.
I undefstand that there are about 4 million French of ethnic Maghrebi and African extraction. How many turnout to vote? Presumably very few for FN.
If it's possible to bet on a first round outright victory in France it might offer some value. Either people thinking they get a free protest vote for Le Pen who end up pushing her over the line, or a consolidation around Fillon.
Unless the field consolidates mightily, there is no chance of a first round victory for anyone.
Indeed. The absolute record for a first round is Charles De Gaulle with 44,62% in 1965 and nobody even reached 40% since 1974.
If it's possible to bet on a first round outright victory in France it might offer some value. Either people thinking they get a free protest vote for Le Pen who end up pushing her over the line, or a consolidation around Fillon.
Unless the field consolidates mightily, there is no chance of a first round victory for anyone.
We weren't so far off a first round victory in the Republicains primary despite a large field and no-one predicting the result.
An outright win this time would equal the shock value of Le Pen pere making the run off in 2002.
Marine is pretty ruthless to purge her own father for anti-semitism from the party he founded. It must make Christmas dinner a little awkward!
If it's possible to bet on a first round outright victory in France it might offer some value. Either people thinking they get a free protest vote for Le Pen who end up pushing her over the line, or a consolidation around Fillon.
Unless the field consolidates mightily, there is no chance of a first round victory for anyone.
We weren't so far off a first round victory in the Republicains primary despite a large field and no-one predicting the result.
An outright win this time would equal the shock value of Le Pen pere making the run off in 2002.
Hmmmm... We'll see but I can't see many Green, Macron, Melanchon, Bayrou, or Hollande voters lending their first round votes to either of Le Pen or Fillon. Indeed, if you want a shock first round victory candidate, if go for Macron, because I could see left wing votes choosing him in the first round to avoid a Fillon vs Le Pen second round.
Is the socialist primary going to be an open one like for the right? if so, we should look at who infiltrating righties would want to vote for among the potential candidates? Perhaps it would genuinely be Hollande as the worst possible choice the socialists could run?
I believe Bannon has also called himself a Leninist. The puffed-up, ahistorical comparisons can probably be discounted, the level of impact he things he is or will be having is more worrying.
he's Catholic conservative on social issues, anti-abortion, etc
If Le Pen is smart (which she is) she'll try to push him into a corner on his gay rights record and pose as their defender against islamification of society.
In the great western democracies we might be seeing a new realignment, from Left versus Right to Centre Right versus Hard Right.
And yet somehow, Corbyn...
If UKIP get their act together they could be the main opposition to the Tories within two cycles.
UKIP could do better than that.
May: "Let's give lots of visas to Indians in return for investment" Corbyn: "We are the party of immigration" Farron: "Let's stay in the EU"
(I write as a Remainer, just to be clear. But against the three main parties in the Commons, UKIP probably won't have a difficult ride, so long as they get themselves a leader and stop manhandling each other. Breitbart and Trump may be able to help.)
Nah. UKIP won only one seat at the GE and that with a reduced majority against a Cameroonite. UKIP will remain a fringe party, even more so after Brexit, following which they may well expire.
Who would their voters switch to? Things have changed. The vibe at the next election may be anywhere from halfway between the GE2015 vibe and the EUref vibe to well on the other side of the EUref vibe. What are people in the Leavite horde supposed to think, having voted Leave on immigration, when Corbyn says he loves immigration, Farron says let's stay in the EU, and May says "er"? Maybe Steve Bannon could help with the UKIP campaign. The line that the Tories didn't hear the voters' message could be quite successful.
Not everyone is obsessed by immigration, and those that are will vote for May's Brexiting Tories, not UKIP.
Quite so, Doc. Assuming HMG does trigger Article 50 by next March I would expect UKIP to fade away, job done. The chances of it managing to reinvent itself as the party of the working classes are , I think, minimal. However, if the "establishment" is perceived to block the UK's leaving the EU by 2020, then all bets are off.
If it's possible to bet on a first round outright victory in France it might offer some value. Either people thinking they get a free protest vote for Le Pen who end up pushing her over the line, or a consolidation around Fillon.
Unless the field consolidates mightily, there is no chance of a first round victory for anyone.
We weren't so far off a first round victory in the Republicains primary despite a large field and no-one predicting the result.
An outright win this time would equal the shock value of Le Pen pere making the run off in 2002.
Hmmmm... We'll see but I can't see many Green, Macron, Melanchon, Bayrou, or Hollande voters lending their first round votes to either of Le Pen or Fillon. Indeed, if you want a shock first round victory candidate, if go for Macron, because I could see left wing votes choosing him in the first round to avoid a Fillon vs Le Pen second round.
Macron eclipsing Fillon and making the run off must be a real possibility if the PS don't put up a credible candidate. (It's incredible to think that this means if they put up the incumbent President.)
So Juppe massively failed against expectations. Unsurprising as he seemed to offer little real promise of change from the Hollande era, and was basically the French Hillary Clinton.
Fillon is the most anglo-saxon market conservative in his outlook, and I don't see that being popular in France at the moment. Just look at the backlash to the recent labour reforms proposed by Hollande.
Le Pen will clean up big time amongst the socialist base (not the "bobo" parisian types of course) in the second round.
Juppé is Cameron, Fillon is May and Sarkozy is Farage, if one were forced to pick. (Fillon is more Catholic though!)
The issues are a bit morez complictaed IMHO.
yes Fillon is pro-market, but he is also very conservative on many non-economic issues. The kind of issues that could lead some right-wing voters to vote e Pen against Juppé, but not against Fillon.
Besides, Le Pen is absolutely hated by the socialist base. Their main (and often only) belief these days is opposition to the Front National and support for muslims. The socialists would probably have difficulties mobilizing for Fillon but very very few would even consider voting Le Pen.
The socialist base has not been working class for many many years now. The working class and unemployed already care the basis of Le Pen. The PS base is bobos + teachers and other mid-rank civil servants.
Thanks for the Fillon tip. I got on at 5.7.
I undefstand that there are about 4 million French of ethnic Maghrebi and African extraction. How many turnout to vote? Presumably very few for FN.
A sizable part of this population does not have French nationality and thus cannot vote.
But in 2012 exit polls gave Hollande more than 90% of the Muslim vote on the second round and their turnout was actually quite good.
However some pockets of FN support exist, especially in the Harki community (French-supporting Algerians evacuated in 1962) and in the worst crime-ridden communities. The FN won élections in massively Muslim neighboorhoods of Marseille but mainly because of a very low turnout and scandals against socialist mayors.
Fillon is probably not very popular among some Muslims, being quite anti-immigration and strongly against ISIS and also critical of French ties with Qatar and Saudi Arabia. His scepticism regarding gay marriage and pro-family image might gain him a few votes but I wold not expect him to get many Muslim votes except as the less of two evils in a dual with Le Pen.
What is often ignored is that Cromwell was a convinced "protestant" (yes, bit anachronistic to use that). Part of the charges against him were that he was said to have said that he was guiding the King down the hard core reformation path and that he would "prevent" the King from turning back....
One interpretation of his fall was that Henry wanted Catholicism without the Pope - basically Cromwell went too far and so he got the chop.
Another is that he was sacrificed by the King to send a message to the nobility that the reformation was not going Lutheran...
Notably, around the time he fell, there was an execution of Catholics for refusing to acknowledge the Supremacy and an execution of "protestants" for being heretics.
Quite right, Mr. Malmesbury. However, I can't help feeling that Cromwell's efforts in arranging the King's forth wife might have had something to do with his downfall. He upset the King on a matter that was more important to Henry than religion.
Succession planning; always tricky. I don't think the future Edward VI was ever what you might call a 'sturdy lad'.
If it's possible to bet on a first round outright victory in France it might offer some value. Either people thinking they get a free protest vote for Le Pen who end up pushing her over the line, or a consolidation around Fillon.
Unless the field consolidates mightily, there is no chance of a first round victory for anyone.
We weren't so far off a first round victory in the Republicains primary despite a large field and no-one predicting the result.
An outright win this time would equal the shock value of Le Pen pere making the run off in 2002.
Hmmmm... We'll see but I can't see many Green, Macron, Melanchon, Bayrou, or Hollande voters lending their first round votes to either of Le Pen or Fillon. Indeed, if you want a shock first round victory candidate, if go for Macron, because I could see left wing votes choosing him in the first round to avoid a Fillon vs Le Pen second round.
Macron eclipsing Fillon and making the run off must be a real possibility if the PS don't put up a credible candidate. (It's incredible to think that this means if they put up the incumbent President.)
The polls have Macron on about 17-18% in the first round, against 9% for Hollande.
The big question is Bayrou. If he decided not to stand, and he's on about 8% in the polls, and to endorse Macron, that would make the first round very close indeed.
If it's possible to bet on a first round outright victory in France it might offer some value. Either people thinking they get a free protest vote for Le Pen who end up pushing her over the line, or a consolidation around Fillon.
Unless the field consolidates mightily, there is no chance of a first round victory for anyone.
We weren't so far off a first round victory in the Republicains primary despite a large field and no-one predicting the result.
An outright win this time would equal the shock value of Le Pen pere making the run off in 2002.
Hmmmm... We'll see but I can't see many Green, Macron, Melanchon, Bayrou, or Hollande voters lending their first round votes to either of Le Pen or Fillon. Indeed, if you want a shock first round victory candidate, if go for Macron, because I could see left wing votes choosing him in the first round to avoid a Fillon vs Le Pen second round.
Realistically I think the only way my scenario could happen is if Le Pen wins because everyone assumes she'll lose the run off but enough people want to show covert support by voting for her in the first round when they think it doesn't matter.
So Juppe massively failed against expectations. Unsurprising as he seemed to offer little real promise of change from the Hollande era, and was basically the French Hillary Clinton.
Fillon is the most anglo-saxon market conservative in his outlook, and I don't see that being popular in France at the moment. Just look at the backlash to the recent labour reforms proposed by Hollande.
Le Pen will clean up big time amongst the socialist base (not the "bobo" parisian types of course) in the second round.
Juppé is Cameron, Fillon is May and Sarkozy is Farage, if one were forced to pick. (Fillon is more Catholic though!)
The issues are a bit morez complictaed IMHO.
yes Fillon is pro-market, but he is also very conservative on many non-economic issues. The kind of issues that could lead some right-wing voters to vote e Pen against Juppé, but not against Fillon.
Besides, Le Pen is absolutely hated by the socialist base. Their main (and often only) belief these days is opposition to the Front National and support for muslims. The socialists would probably have difficulties mobilizing for Fillon but very very few would even consider voting Le Pen.
The socialist base has not been working class for many many years now. The working class and unemployed already care the basis of Le Pen. The PS base is bobos + teachers and other mid-rank civil servants.
Thanks for the Fillon tip. I got on at 5.7.
I undefstand that there are about 4 million French of ethnic Maghrebi and African extraction. How many turnout to vote? Presumably very few for FN.
A sizable part of this population does not have French nationality and thus cannot vote.
But in 2012 exit polls gave Hollande more than 90% of the Muslim vote on the second round and their turnout was actually quite good.
However some pockets of FN support exist, especially in the Harki community (French-supporting Algerians evacuated in 1962) and in the worst crime-ridden communities. The FN won élections in massively Muslim neighboorhoods of Marseille but mainly because of a very low turnout and scandals against socialist mayors.
Fillon is probably not very popular among some Muslims, being quite anti-immigration and strongly against ISIS and also critical of French ties with Qatar and Saudi Arabia. His scepticism regarding gay marriage and pro-family image might gain him a few votes but I wold not expect him to get many Muslim votes except as the less of two evils in a dual with Le Pen.
I thought French Muslims were largely secular even with a significant number who are devout?
What is often ignored is that Cromwell was a convinced "protestant" (yes, bit anachronistic to use that). Part of the charges against him were that he was said to have said that he was guiding the King down the hard core reformation path and that he would "prevent" the King from turning back....
One interpretation of his fall was that Henry wanted Catholicism without the Pope - basically Cromwell went too far and so he got the chop.
Another is that he was sacrificed by the King to send a message to the nobility that the reformation was not going Lutheran...
Notably, around the time he fell, there was an execution of Catholics for refusing to acknowledge the Supremacy and an execution of "protestants" for being heretics.
Quite right, Mr. Malmesbury. However, I can't help feeling that Cromwell's efforts in arranging the King's forth wife might have had something to do with his downfall. He upset the King on a matter that was more important to Henry than religion.
Succession planning; always tricky. I don't thind Edward VI was every what you might call a sturdy lad?
Quite so, Mr. Cole. Henry needed and heir and a spare. He had the first and Cromwell provided the wrong woman to give him the second. If indeed by then he was still capable of doing the deed, which I doubt - grossly obese, sick men are not noted for their stamina. It would probably been tricky to tell Henry that, though.
However it all worked out pretty well in the end - we got the brilliant Elizabeth on the throne.
I do love the quasi AV system they are using for this primary
Your public school tw@ttery is showing!
It's NOT AV because voters could only express a single preference.
They can express two preferences, just not on the same ballot paper. It's effectively SV by exhaustive ballot.
So the same as the Tory Party election.
AV has preferences expressed on the same ballot (ie. the same round of voting).
Not quite. The French system is analagous to SV, with only two rounds (maximum) and where only the two leading candidates go through if no-one takes over 50%; the Tory system is like AV, with as many rounds as necessary until someone exceeds 50%, with the bottom-most candidate dropping out each time.
But in both a voter can change his mind between rounds.
What is often ignored is that Cromwell was a convinced "protestant" (yes, bit anachronistic to use that). Part of the charges against him were that he was said to have said that he was guiding the King down the hard core reformation path and that he would "prevent" the King from turning back....
One interpretation of his fall was that Henry wanted Catholicism without the Pope - basically Cromwell went too far and so he got the chop.
Another is that he was sacrificed by the King to send a message to the nobility that the reformation was not going Lutheran...
Notably, around the time he fell, there was an execution of Catholics for refusing to acknowledge the Supremacy and an execution of "protestants" for being heretics.
Quite right, Mr. Malmesbury. However, I can't help feeling that Cromwell's efforts in arranging the King's forth wife might have had something to do with his downfall. He upset the King on a matter that was more important to Henry than religion.
Succession planning; always tricky. I don't think the future Edward VI was ever what you might call a 'sturdy lad'.
Oh I'm sure that it was a multiplicity of factors - but ignoring Cromwells beliefs, Henry's beliefs, the beliefs of the nobles around Henry and the charges against Cromwell... is a strange idea to me.
I rather think that the marriage failure made him vulnerable. Plus there was the political angle - a Lutheran alliance was becoming inconvenient for Henry.. he'd only gone for it for protection against an attack from the Emperor & Francis together. The alliance against England had failed to materialise and it was becoming clear that an attempted alliance with the Lutherans was provocative.
So Cromwell was the guy who'd screwed up finding the right wife, got him into an alliance with people he regarded as religiously beyond the pale, an alliance that was creating danger not reducing it... and upsetting the conservative nobles at home.. and running his mouth off about controlling the King.
he's Catholic conservative on social issues, anti-abortion, etc
If Le Pen is smart (which she is) she'll try to push him into a corner on his gay rights record and pose as their defender against islamification of society.
In the great western democracies we might be seeing a new realignment, from Left versus Right to Centre Right versus Hard Right.
And yet somehow, Corbyn...
If UKIP get their act together they could be the main opposition to the Tories within two cycles.
UKIP could do better than that.
May: "Let's give lots of visas to Indians in return for investment" Corbyn: "We are the party of immigration" Farron: "Let's stay in the EU"
(I write as a Remainer, just to be clear. But against the three main parties in the Commons, UKIP probably won't have a difficult ride, so long as they get themselves a leader and stop manhandling each other. Breitbart and Trump may be able to help.)
Nah. UKIP won only one seat at the GE and that with a reduced majority against a Cameroonite. UKIP will remain a fringe party, even more so after Brexit, following which they may well expire.
Who would their voters switch to? Things have changed. The vibe at the next election may be anywhere from halfway between the GE2015 vibe and the EUref vibe to well on the other side of the EUref vibe. What are people in the Leavite horde supposed to think, having voted Leave on immigration, when Corbyn says he loves immigration, Farron says let's stay in the EU, and May says "er"? Maybe Steve Bannon could help with the UKIP campaign. The line that the Tories didn't hear the voters' message could be quite successful.
Not everyone is obsessed by immigration, and those that are will vote for May's Brexiting Tories, not UKIP.
Quite so, Doc. Assuming HMG does trigger Article 50 by next March I would expect UKIP to fade away, job done. The chances of it managing to reinvent itself as the party of the working classes are , I think, minimal. However, if the "establishment" is perceived to block the UK's leaving the EU by 2020, then all bets are off.
I have a pretty low opinion of May, who appears very much to be an empty vessel. She means Brexit though, and if thwarted by parliament (unlikely) would most likely call an early election on a Brexit manifesto. She would win easily. I cannot see what UKIP would stand for in such an election.
So Juppe massively failed against expectations. Unsurprising as he seemed to offer little real promise of change from the Hollande era, and was basically the French Hillary Clinton.
Fillon is the most anglo-saxon market conservative in his outlook, and I don't see that being popular in France at the moment. Just look at the backlash to the recent labour reforms proposed by Hollande.
Le Pen will clean up big time amongst the socialist base (not the "bobo" parisian types of course) in the second round.
Juppé is Cameron, Fillon is May and Sarkozy is Farage, if one were forced to pick. (Fillon is more Catholic though!)
The issues are a bit morez complictaed IMHO.
yes Fillon is pro-market, but he is also very conservative on many non-economic issues. The kind of issues that could lead some right-wing voters to vote e Pen against Juppé, but not against Fillon.
Besides, Le Pen is absolutely hated by the socialist base. Their main (and often only) belief these days is opposition to the Front National and support for muslims. The socialists would probably have difficulties mobilizing for Fillon but very very few would even consider voting Le Pen.
The socialist base has not been working class for many many years now. The working class and unemployed already care the basis of Le Pen. The PS base is bobos + teachers and other mid-rank civil servants.
Thanks for the Fillon tip. I got on at 5.7.
I undefstand that there are about 4 million French of ethnic Maghrebi and African extraction. How many turnout to vote? Presumably very few for FN.
A sizable part of this population does not have French nationality and thus cannot vote.
But in 2012 exit polls gave Hollande more than 90% of the Muslim vote on the second round and their turnout was actually quite good.
However some pockets of FN support exist, especially in the Harki community (French-supporting Algerians evacuated in 1962) and in the worst crime-ridden communities. The FN won élections in massively Muslim neighboorhoods of Marseille but mainly because of a very low turnout and scandals against socialist mayors.
Fillon is probably not very popular among some Muslims, being quite anti-immigration and strongly against ISIS and also critical of French ties with Qatar and Saudi Arabia. His scepticism regarding gay marriage and pro-family image might gain him a few votes but I wold not expect him to get many Muslim votes except as the less of two evils in a dual with Le Pen.
You appear to be saying being strongly anti ISIS is a vote loser in certain sections of the community?
What is often ignored is that Cromwell was a convinced "protestant" (yes, bit anachronistic to use that). Part of the charges against him were that he was said to have said that he was guiding the King down the hard core reformation path and that he would "prevent" the King from turning back....
One interpretation of his fall was that Henry wanted Catholicism without the Pope - basically Cromwell went too far and so he got the chop.
Another is that he was sacrificed by the King to send a message to the nobility that the reformation was not going Lutheran...
Notably, around the time he fell, there was an execution of Catholics for refusing to acknowledge the Supremacy and an execution of "protestants" for being heretics.
Quite right, Mr. Malmesbury. However, I can't help feeling that Cromwell's efforts in arranging the King's forth wife might have had something to do with his downfall. He upset the King on a matter that was more important to Henry than religion.
Succession planning; always tricky. I don't think the future Edward VI was ever what you might call a 'sturdy lad'.
Oh I'm sure that it was a multiplicity of factors - but ignoring Cromwells beliefs, Henry's beliefs, the beliefs of the nobles around Henry and the charges against Cromwell... is a strange idea to me.
I rather think that the marriage failure made him vulnerable. Plus there was the political angle - a Lutheran alliance was becoming inconvenient for Henry.. he'd only gone for it for protection against an attack from the Emperor & Francis together. The alliance against England had failed to materialise and it was becoming clear that an attempted alliance with the Lutherans was provocative.
So Cromwell was the guy who'd screwed up finding the right wife, got him into an alliance with people he regarded as religiously beyond the pale, an alliance that was creating danger not reducing it... and upsetting the conservative nobles at home.. and running his mouth off about controlling the King.
IF Henry had found the fourth wife pleasing do you think Cromwell would still have got the chop?
So Juppe massively failed against expectations. Unsurprising as he seemed to offer little real promise of change from the Hollande era, and was basically the French Hillary Clinton.
Fillon is the most anglo-saxon market conservative in his outlook, and I don't see that being popular in France at the moment. Just look at the backlash to the recent labour reforms proposed by Hollande.
Le Pen will clean up big time amongst the socialist base (not the "bobo" parisian types of course) in the second round.
It's a fascinating contest. Free market conservative, vs nationalist socialist. With a Blairite figure scoring high teens in the first round (which is only a smidgen behind Fillon's score).
I misread that as "National Socialist" at first glance
So Juppe massively failed against expectations. Unsurprising as he seemed to offer little real promise of change from the Hollande era, and was basically the French Hillary Clinton.
Fillon is the most anglo-saxon market conservative in his outlook, and I don't see that being popular in France at the moment. Just look at the backlash to the recent labour reforms proposed by Hollande.
Le Pen will clean up big time amongst the socialist base (not the "bobo" parisian types of course) in the second round.
Juppé is Cameron, Fillon is May and Sarkozy is Farage, if one were forced to pick. (Fillon is more Catholic though!)
The issues are a bit morez complictaed IMHO.
Besides, Le Pen is absolutely hated by the socialist base. Their main (and often only) belief these days is opposition to the Front National and support for muslims. The socialists would probably have difficulties mobilizing for Fillon but very very few would even consider voting Le Pen.
The socialist base has not been working class for many many years now. The working class and unemployed already care the basis of Le Pen. The PS base is bobos + teachers and other mid-rank civil servants.
Thanks for the Fillon tip. I got on at 5.7.
I undefstand that there are about 4 million French of ethnic Maghrebi and African extraction. How many turnout to vote? Presumably very few for FN.
A sizable part of this population does not have French nationality and thus cannot vote.
But in 2012 exit polls gave Hollande more than 90% of the Muslim vote on the second round and their turnout was actually quite good.
However some pockets of FN support exist, especially in the Harki community (French-supporting Algerians evacuated in 1962) and in the worst crime-ridden communities. The FN won élections in massively Muslim neighboorhoods of Marseille but mainly because of a very low turnout and scandals against socialist mayors.
Fillon is probably not very popular among some Muslims, being quite anti-immigration and strongly against ISIS and also critical of French ties with Qatar and Saudi Arabia. His scepticism regarding gay marriage and pro-family image might gain him a few votes but I wold not expect him to get many Muslim votes except as the less of two evils in a dual with Le Pen.
You appear to be saying being strongly anti ISIS is a vote loser in certain sections of the community?
I took it to mean keen on military action against ISIS in Iraq and Syria.
I have a pretty low opinion of May, who appears very much to be an empty vessel. She means Brexit though, and if thwarted by parliament (unlikely) would most likely call an early election on a Brexit manifesto. She would win easily. I cannot see what UKIP would stand for in such an election.
Doc, as I have said several times before you are expecting too much from TM. Working out what HMG's position should be on leaving the EU will take time and it will not be helped by a running commentary. Once the debate becomes public ego takes over and that never helps.
As to UKIP, the situation I suggested is one in which the "establishment" are seen to thwart the will of the people. UKIP's vote could, perhaps, rise in those circumstances particularly amongst those who would never consider voting conservative
I undefstand that there are about 4 million French of ethnic Maghrebi and African extraction. How many turnout to vote? Presumably very few for FN.
A sizable part of this population does not have French nationality and thus cannot vote.
But in 2012 exit polls gave Hollande more than 90% of the Muslim vote on the second round and their turnout was actually quite good.
However some pockets of FN support exist, especially in the Harki community (French-supporting Algerians evacuated in 1962) and in the worst crime-ridden communities. The FN won élections in massively Muslim neighboorhoods of Marseille but mainly because of a very low turnout and scandals against socialist mayors.
Fillon is probably not very popular among some Muslims, being quite anti-immigration and strongly against ISIS and also critical of French ties with Qatar and Saudi Arabia. His scepticism regarding gay marriage and pro-family image might gain him a few votes but I wold not expect him to get many Muslim votes except as the less of two evils in a dual with Le Pen.
You appear to be saying being strongly anti ISIS is a vote loser in certain sections of the community?
It depends how you phrase your opposition. Fillon wrote a book called "Defeating Islamic totalitarianism". Some French muslims find his language too aggressive even if they do not suppport ISIS. That's why French socialists tend to use the Arabic acronym Daesch to avoid mentioning the word "Islamic"
I undefstand that there are about 4 million French of ethnic Maghrebi and African extraction. How many turnout to vote? Presumably very few for FN.
A sizable part of this population does not have French nationality and thus cannot vote.
But in 2012 exit polls gave Hollande more than 90% of the Muslim vote on the second round and their turnout was actually quite good.
However some pockets of FN support exist, especially in the Harki community (French-supporting Algerians evacuated in 1962) and in the worst crime-ridden communities. The FN won élections in massively Muslim neighboorhoods of Marseille but mainly because of a very low turnout and scandals against socialist mayors.
Fillon is probably not very popular among some Muslims, being quite anti-immigration and strongly against ISIS and also critical of French ties with Qatar and Saudi Arabia. His scepticism regarding gay marriage and pro-family image might gain him a few votes but I wold not expect him to get many Muslim votes except as the less of two evils in a dual with Le Pen.
I thought French Muslims were largely secular even with a significant number who are devout?
The Muslim community is largely secular but religious observance is rising and even among less religious people some practices (ramadan, halal food and Muslim tradtional clothing) are much more prevalent than they were 20 years ago.
I see after Google said they will increase UK employment by 3000, Facebook say they will increase jobs in the u.k by 50% in 2017. It seems Brexit is no job destroyer afterall.
I see after Google said they will increase UK employment by 3000, Facebook say they will increase jobs in the u.k by 50% in 2017. It seems Brexit is no job destroyer afterall.
As a Remainer, I never expected it to be all downhill after we left, and indeed there will be pluses and minuses. However, what sort of jobs will these be, and at what sort of salaries?
I see after Google said they will increase UK employment by 3000, Facebook say they will increase jobs in the u.k by 50% in 2017. It seems Brexit is no job destroyer afterall.
As a Remainer, I never expected it to be all downhill after we left, and indeed there will be pluses and minuses. However, what sort of jobs will these be, and at what sort of salaries?
Looks like a mix:
"It will hire 500 additional employees, including engineers, marketers, project managers and sales staff."
I see after Google said they will increase UK employment by 3000, Facebook say they will increase jobs in the u.k by 50% in 2017. It seems Brexit is no job destroyer afterall.
As a Remainer, I never expected it to be all downhill after we left, and indeed there will be pluses and minuses. However, what sort of jobs will these be, and at what sort of salaries?
Looks like a mix:
"It will hire 500 additional employees, including engineers, marketers, project managers and sales staff."
They also say nice things about the quality of British software engineers, and tech staff generally. To be fair, that's probably true, according to the people I know who know about these things. As we get more isolated though, will that continue?
I see after Google said they will increase UK employment by 3000, Facebook say they will increase jobs in the u.k by 50% in 2017. It seems Brexit is no job destroyer afterall.
As a Remainer, I never expected it to be all downhill after we left, and indeed there will be pluses and minuses. However, what sort of jobs will these be, and at what sort of salaries?
Looks like a mix:
"It will hire 500 additional employees, including engineers, marketers, project managers and sales staff."
They also say nice things about the quality of British software engineers, and tech staff generally. To be fair, that's probably true, according to the people I know who know about these things. As we get more isolated though, will that continue?
Probably, we aren't going to become more isolated in terms of high-tech jobs.
I see after Google said they will increase UK employment by 3000, Facebook say they will increase jobs in the u.k by 50% in 2017. It seems Brexit is no job destroyer afterall.
As a Remainer, I never expected it to be all downhill after we left, and indeed there will be pluses and minuses. However, what sort of jobs will these be, and at what sort of salaries?
Looks like a mix:
"It will hire 500 additional employees, including engineers, marketers, project managers and sales staff."
They also say nice things about the quality of British software engineers, and tech staff generally. To be fair, that's probably true, according to the people I know who know about these things. As we get more isolated though, will that continue?
Probably, we aren't going to become more isolated in terms of high-tech jobs.
I see after Google said they will increase UK employment by 3000, Facebook say they will increase jobs in the u.k by 50% in 2017. It seems Brexit is no job destroyer afterall.
Has this anything to do with Brexit ? How do you know it would not have happened with Remain ? After all, are there tariffs in software ? In any case, a lot of Google / Facebook employment is software related and hence skills related.
I see after Google said they will increase UK employment by 3000, Facebook say they will increase jobs in the u.k by 50% in 2017. It seems Brexit is no job destroyer afterall.
Has this anything to do with Brexit ? How do you know it would not have happened with Remain ? After all, are there tariffs in software ? In any case, a lot of Google / Facebook employment is software related and hence skills related.
Because we were told that there would be global apocalypse in the event of a Leave vote.
But I guess he'd prefer the RAF and the government to ignore the clearly expressed will of Parliament about Syrian intervention? Even the number of sorties they are doing is pushing the boundaries of their mandate.
I see after Google said they will increase UK employment by 3000, Facebook say they will increase jobs in the u.k by 50% in 2017. It seems Brexit is no job destroyer afterall.
Has this anything to do with Brexit ? How do you know it would not have happened with Remain ? After all, are there tariffs in software ? In any case, a lot of Google / Facebook employment is software related and hence skills related.
Because we were told that there would be global apocalypse in the event of a Leave vote.
There will be apocalypse relating to manufacturing exports to the EU and services exports regarding banking / insurance etc.
Unless, you suggest that we become another Bangalore [ with several times the wages ].
But I guess he'd prefer the RAF and the government to ignore the clearly expressed will of Parliament about Syrian intervention? Even the number of sorties they are doing is pushing the boundaries of their mandate.
Weren't we told that the RAF will only be involved in Syria ? What's the point of giving such assurances ?
But I guess he'd prefer the RAF and the government to ignore the clearly expressed will of Parliament about Syrian intervention? Even the number of sorties they are doing is pushing the boundaries of their mandate.
But I guess he'd prefer the RAF and the government to ignore the clearly expressed will of Parliament about Syrian intervention? Even the number of sorties they are doing is pushing the boundaries of their mandate.
Weren't we told that the RAF will only be involved in Syria ? What's the point of giving such assurances ?
I thought it was the RAF was primarily in Iraq, but where appropriate could do some sorties in Syria?
9% of their targets being in Syria would fit with that. Newton Dunn appears to be criticizing the RAF for not spending more time in Syria, contrary to their mandate
Wakes up. Checks cricket score. Goes back to sleep.
More dedicate than me - I expected this and so woke up on schedule; merely to remain calmly unsurprised.
I expected more resistance. But with Duck[ett]s out of water, what can you expect ? He got 4 tests. 2 too many. Sometimes you have to take the attack to the bowlers to upset their rhythm
But I guess he'd prefer the RAF and the government to ignore the clearly expressed will of Parliament about Syrian intervention? Even the number of sorties they are doing is pushing the boundaries of their mandate.
Why do you want the terrorists to win?
I don't.
Cameron didn't need to seek Parliamentary authorisation, but he chose to. Unless Parliament revisits their position then that remains a constraint on how the executive can act.
But I guess he'd prefer the RAF and the government to ignore the clearly expressed will of Parliament about Syrian intervention? Even the number of sorties they are doing is pushing the boundaries of their mandate.
Why do you want the terrorists to win?
I don't.
Cameron didn't need to seek Parliamentary authorisation, but he chose to. Unless Parliament revisits their position then that remains a constraint on how the executive can act.
Does the lost vote legally mean we can't fight in Syria? I thought military action was still a prerogative power?
Fillon seems an excellent candidate from a UK perspective. He is pro-market, socially conservative, hostile to Islamism/Saudi Arabia, more willing to work with Russia, and has a British wife. Unlike Le Pen, I am not aware of him being tainted with anti-semitism, which is endemic among non-cosmopolitan French folk unsympathetic to progressive views.
Fillon seems an excellent candidate from a UK perspective. He is pro-market, socially conservative, hostile to Islamism/Saudi Arabia, more willing to work with Russia, and has a British wife. Unlike Le Pen, I am not aware of him being tainted with anti-semitism, which is endemic among non-cosmopolitan French folk unsympathetic to progressive views.
Would Le Pen also be good for Brexit Britain? I take it she doesn't look too fondly on the EU...
If someone had hung around with Bairstow, England would've won.
Considerable degree of over-optimism, i fear. This was going wrong from the moment that Cook didn't review, and possibly from the time that Cook lost the toss.
Fillon seems an excellent candidate from a UK perspective. He is pro-market, socially conservative, hostile to Islamism/Saudi Arabia, more willing to work with Russia, and has a British wife. Unlike Le Pen, I am not aware of him being tainted with anti-semitism, which is endemic among non-cosmopolitan French folk unsympathetic to progressive views.
non-cosmopolitan French folk
you mean everybody outside Paris ie 80% of the French
Fillon, judging by his June speech after the referendum, is probably in the Cameron school of euroscepticism.
He's the interim Frexit candidate. The last stop before Le Pen.
He thinks a federal Europe is now a pipe dream and authority needs to sit with the European Council rather than Parliament with some return of authority to nation states.
Wakes up. Checks cricket score. Goes back to sleep.
We've got a Yorkshireman and a Cambridge educated chap of Pakistani heritage at the crease.
Speaking from personal experience, that's an awesome set of boxes ticked.
The curse of PB comments rears its head again! All over now for England.
That's positively DavidLesque from me.
And a good morning to you too. It seems that winning the toss is critical in India, far too much so for really good cricket. By not winning the first test England really screwed up. And Kohli's record of winning the toss is phenomenal.
I see after Google said they will increase UK employment by 3000, Facebook say they will increase jobs in the u.k by 50% in 2017. It seems Brexit is no job destroyer afterall.
Has this anything to do with Brexit ? How do you know it would not have happened with Remain ? After all, are there tariffs in software ? In any case, a lot of Google / Facebook employment is software related and hence skills related.
Fillon, judging by his June speech after the referendum, is probably in the Cameron school of euroscepticism.
He's the interim Frexit candidate.
He thinks a federal Europe is now a pipe dream and authority needs to sit with the European Council rather than Parliament with some return of authority to nation states.
Frexit would be utterly splendid, although extremely unlikely!
But I guess he'd prefer the RAF and the government to ignore the clearly expressed will of Parliament about Syrian intervention? Even the number of sorties they are doing is pushing the boundaries of their mandate.
Weren't we told that the RAF will only be involved in Syria ? What's the point of giving such assurances ?
I *think* (though am not sure) that you're wrong. We've been asked by the Iraqi government to help with air strikes, therefore we've been invited in. There was also a separate debate and vote on the Iraq bombing from the more controversial Syrian one.
Wakes up. Checks cricket score. Goes back to sleep.
We've got a Yorkshireman and a Cambridge educated chap of Pakistani heritage at the crease.
Speaking from personal experience, that's an awesome set of boxes ticked.
The curse of PB comments rears its head again! All over now for England.
That's positively DavidLesque from me.
And a good morning to you too. It seems that winning the toss is critical in India, far too much so for really good cricket. By not winning the first test England really screwed up. And Kohli's record of winning the toss is phenomenal.
Yup. At least we've got an awesome ODI team.
I suspect we're going to bring in Buttler for Duckett for the next test.
Wakes up. Checks cricket score. Goes back to sleep.
We've got a Yorkshireman and a Cambridge educated chap of Pakistani heritage at the crease.
Speaking from personal experience, that's an awesome set of boxes ticked.
The curse of PB comments rears its head again! All over now for England.
That's positively DavidLesque from me.
And a good morning to you too. It seems that winning the toss is critical in India, far too much so for really good cricket. By not winning the first test England really screwed up. And Kohli's record of winning the toss is phenomenal.
Never mind, for now there is always the Ozzies to laugh at. They picked a brit to play for them, they are so desperate.
Fillon, judging by his June speech after the referendum, is probably in the Cameron school of euroscepticism.
He's the interim Frexit candidate.
He thinks a federal Europe is now a pipe dream and authority needs to sit with the European Council rather than Parliament with some return of authority to nation states.
Frexit would be utterly splendid, although extremely unlikely!
If France doesnt get something like Frexit it's stuffed
Fillon, judging by his June speech after the referendum, is probably in the Cameron school of euroscepticism.
He's the interim Frexit candidate.
He thinks a federal Europe is now a pipe dream and authority needs to sit with the European Council rather than Parliament with some return of authority to nation states.
Frexit would be utterly splendid, although extremely unlikely!
If France doesnt get something like Frexit it's stuffed
It'd be glorious.. the two ancient adversary walking out of the EU together. Almost poetic!
Wakes up. Checks cricket score. Goes back to sleep.
We've got a Yorkshireman and a Cambridge educated chap of Pakistani heritage at the crease.
Speaking from personal experience, that's an awesome set of boxes ticked.
The curse of PB comments rears its head again! All over now for England.
That's positively DavidLesque from me.
And a good morning to you too. It seems that winning the toss is critical in India, far too much so for really good cricket. By not winning the first test England really screwed up. And Kohli's record of winning the toss is phenomenal.
Never mind, for now there is always the Ozzies to laugh at. They picked a brit to play for them, they are so desperate.
And this time next year, we'll be heading down there to win the Ashes again!
But I guess he'd prefer the RAF and the government to ignore the clearly expressed will of Parliament about Syrian intervention? Even the number of sorties they are doing is pushing the boundaries of their mandate.
Why do you want the terrorists to win?
I don't.
Cameron didn't need to seek Parliamentary authorisation, but he chose to. Unless Parliament revisits their position then that remains a constraint on how the executive can act.
Does the lost vote legally mean we can't fight in Syria? I thought military action was still a prerogative power?
Not a constitutional lawyer* but the executive acting against clear instructions of Parliament (even if prerogative power) is definitely murky water
* although I did study constitutional government at uni for s&g
Fillon, judging by his June speech after the referendum, is probably in the Cameron school of euroscepticism.
He's the interim Frexit candidate.
He thinks a federal Europe is now a pipe dream and authority needs to sit with the European Council rather than Parliament with some return of authority to nation states.
Frexit would be utterly splendid, although extremely unlikely!
If France doesnt get something like Frexit it's stuffed
I can't really see that but it is painfully obvious that ECB policies are really not working for either France or Italy and any politician simply has to look at what has happened to Hollande if they have any doubts. What I do think we will see from France is a more independent economic policy with a healthy disregard for budget limits and an even more pronounced disregard for things like the EU competitive tendering and State Aid rules.
I think working out if this is good or bad for us is quite complicated.
But I guess he'd prefer the RAF and the government to ignore the clearly expressed will of Parliament about Syrian intervention? Even the number of sorties they are doing is pushing the boundaries of their mandate.
Why do you want the terrorists to win?
I don't.
Cameron didn't need to seek Parliamentary authorisation, but he chose to. Unless Parliament revisits their position then that remains a constraint on how the executive can act.
Does the lost vote legally mean we can't fight in Syria? I thought military action was still a prerogative power?
Not a constitutional lawyer* but the executive acting against clear instructions of Parliament (even if prerogative power) is definitely murky water
* although I did study constitutional government at uni for s&g
I guess HMG could argue that the situation has changed?
But I guess he'd prefer the RAF and the government to ignore the clearly expressed will of Parliament about Syrian intervention? Even the number of sorties they are doing is pushing the boundaries of their mandate.
Why do you want the terrorists to win?
I don't.
Cameron didn't need to seek Parliamentary authorisation, but he chose to. Unless Parliament revisits their position then that remains a constraint on how the executive can act.
Does the lost vote legally mean we can't fight in Syria? I thought military action was still a prerogative power?
There was another vote in December 2015 allowing strikes in Syria. There was an earlier one allowing attacks in Iraq.
But I guess he'd prefer the RAF and the government to ignore the clearly expressed will of Parliament about Syrian intervention? Even the number of sorties they are doing is pushing the boundaries of their mandate.
Why do you want the terrorists to win?
I don't.
Cameron didn't need to seek Parliamentary authorisation, but he chose to. Unless Parliament revisits their position then that remains a constraint on how the executive can act.
Does the lost vote legally mean we can't fight in Syria? I thought military action was still a prerogative power?
There was another vote in December 2015 allowing strikes in Syria. There was an earlier one allowing attacks in Iraq.
But I guess he'd prefer the RAF and the government to ignore the clearly expressed will of Parliament about Syrian intervention? Even the number of sorties they are doing is pushing the boundaries of their mandate.
Why do you want the terrorists to win?
I don't.
Cameron didn't need to seek Parliamentary authorisation, but he chose to. Unless Parliament revisits their position then that remains a constraint on how the executive can act.
Does the lost vote legally mean we can't fight in Syria? I thought military action was still a prerogative power?
Not a constitutional lawyer* but the executive acting against clear instructions of Parliament (even if prerogative power) is definitely murky water
* although I did study constitutional government at uni for s&g
I guess HMG could argue that the situation has changed?
But I guess he'd prefer the RAF and the government to ignore the clearly expressed will of Parliament about Syrian intervention? Even the number of sorties they are doing is pushing the boundaries of their mandate.
Why do you want the terrorists to win?
I don't.
Cameron didn't need to seek Parliamentary authorisation, but he chose to. Unless Parliament revisits their position then that remains a constraint on how the executive can act.
Does the lost vote legally mean we can't fight in Syria? I thought military action was still a prerogative power?
There was another vote in December 2015 allowing strikes in Syria. There was an earlier one allowing attacks in Iraq.
That was my memory. Was that not the occasion of the Benn speech?
Indeed. I'm not sure what people are complaining about below.
There were the attacks by in Syria before last year's vote by RAF pilots embedded with US forces, but that doesn't seem to be what the tweet was about.
Fillon, judging by his June speech after the referendum, is probably in the Cameron school of euroscepticism.
He's the interim Frexit candidate.
He thinks a federal Europe is now a pipe dream and authority needs to sit with the European Council rather than Parliament with some return of authority to nation states.
Frexit would be utterly splendid, although extremely unlikely!
If France doesnt get something like Frexit it's stuffed
I can't really see that but it is painfully obvious that ECB policies are really not working for either France or Italy and any politician simply has to look at what has happened to Hollande if they have any doubts. What I do think we will see from France is a more independent economic policy with a healthy disregard for budget limits and an even more pronounced disregard for things like the EU competitive tendering and State Aid rules.
I think working out if this is good or bad for us is quite complicated.
As you point out the ECB is strangling France slowly. The french cant depreciate the currency and there is no appetitie for internal devaluation. So they kick the problem down the road and each month another peice of French industry dies.
If they go down the route of l'exception francise and ignore the rules then so will everyone else and the euro will disintegrate.
Diplomatically France also cocked up on Brexit. The EU only has 3 "serious" countries Germany, France and UK. It's a kind of triangle where on core iisues two could always gang up against the other. France now has no-one to back them up against the Germans in a dispute. The German with their customary tact will push France down roads it does not wish to go. France lost a large chunk of it's ability to manoeuvrre when we voted out.
I can't really see that but it is painfully obvious that ECB policies are really not working for either France or Italy and any politician simply has to look at what has happened to Hollande if they have any doubts. What I do think we will see from France is a more independent economic policy with a healthy disregard for budget limits and an even more pronounced disregard for things like the EU competitive tendering and State Aid rules.
I think working out if this is good or bad for us is quite complicated.
As you point out the ECB is strangling France slowly. The french cant depreciate the currency and there is no appetitie for internal devaluation. So they kick the problem down the road and each month another peice of French industry dies.
If they go down the route of l'exception francise and ignore the rules then so will everyone else and the euro will disintegrate.
Diplomatically France also cocked up on Brexit. The EU only has 3 "serious" countries Germany, France and UK. It's a kind of triangle where on core iisues two could always gang up against the other. France now has no-one to back them up against the Germans in a dispute. The German with their customary tact will push France down roads it does not wish to go. France lost a large chunk of it's ability to manoeuvrre when we voted out.
Not sure the French are ever all that bothered about "everyone else". I agree that Germany is going to be far more dominant in the EU without the UK. I really didn't understand the argument that they would be diminished because they no longer had the support of the free market Brits.
I have a pretty low opinion of May, who appears very much to be an empty vessel. She means Brexit though, and if thwarted by parliament (unlikely) would most likely call an early election on a Brexit manifesto. She would win easily. I cannot see what UKIP would stand for in such an election.
Doc, as I have said several times before you are expecting too much from TM. Working out what HMG's position should be on leaving the EU will take time and it will not be helped by a running commentary. Once the debate becomes public ego takes over and that never helps.
As to UKIP, the situation I suggested is one in which the "establishment" are seen to thwart the will of the people. UKIP's vote could, perhaps, rise in those circumstances particularly amongst those who would never consider voting conservative
If as seems to be the case UKIP focus on trying to replace the "not the Tories" vote in the north, they stand a chance of a few seats.
I can't really see that but it is painfully obvious that ECB policies are really not working for either France or Italy and any politician simply has to look at what has happened to Hollande if they have any doubts. What I do think we will see from France is a more independent economic policy with a healthy disregard for budget limits and an even more pronounced disregard for things like the EU competitive tendering and State Aid rules.
I think working out if this is good or bad for us is quite complicated.
As you point out the ECB is strangling France slowly. The french cant depreciate the currency and there is no appetitie for internal devaluation. So they kick the problem down the road and each month another peice of French industry dies.
If they go down the route of l'exception francise and ignore the rules then so will everyone else and the euro will disintegrate.
Diplomatically France also cocked up on Brexit. The EU only has 3 "serious" countries Germany, France and UK. It's a kind of triangle where on core iisues two could always gang up against the other. France now has no-one to back them up against the Germans in a dispute. The German with their customary tact will push France down roads it does not wish to go. France lost a large chunk of it's ability to manoeuvrre when we voted out.
Not sure the French are ever all that bothered about "everyone else". I agree that Germany is going to be far more dominant in the EU without the UK. I really didn't understand the argument that they would be diminished because they no longer had the support of the free market Brits.
I'd say on areas such as national sovereignty and defence the french are clsoer to us than Germany, on areas such as free trade the Germans and closer to us than the french.
As an aside, I think people are wrong to count Macron out. In the polling, he's only just behind Fillon in the first round (17.5% vs 19%), and Fillon's socially conservative, economically Thatcherite message doesn't go down that well with everyone in France.
Macron's big problem is that he's fighting for the centrist vote with Bayrou, who's currently on about 8% in the polls. If Bayrou were to choose not to stand, which is by no means unlikely, then that 20-1 would look very, very tempting.
Comments
yes Fillon is pro-market, but he is also very conservative on many non-economic issues. The kind of issues that could lead some right-wing voters to vote e Pen against Juppé, but not against Fillon.
Besides, Le Pen is absolutely hated by the socialist base. Their main (and often only) belief these days is opposition to the Front National and support for muslims. The socialists would probably have difficulties mobilizing for Fillon but very very few would even consider voting Le Pen.
The socialist base has not been working class for many many years now. The working class and unemployed already care the basis of Le Pen. The PS base is bobos + teachers and other mid-rank civil servants.
An outright win this time would equal the shock value of Le Pen pere making the run off in 2002.
I undefstand that there are about 4 million French of ethnic Maghrebi and African extraction. How many turnout to vote? Presumably very few for FN.
The puffed-up, ahistorical comparisons can probably be discounted, the level of impact he things he is or will be having is more worrying.
But in 2012 exit polls gave Hollande more than 90% of the Muslim vote on the second round and their turnout was actually quite good.
However some pockets of FN support exist, especially in the Harki community (French-supporting Algerians evacuated in 1962) and in the worst crime-ridden communities.
The FN won élections in massively Muslim neighboorhoods of Marseille but mainly because of a very low turnout and scandals against socialist mayors.
Fillon is probably not very popular among some Muslims, being quite anti-immigration and strongly against ISIS and also critical of French ties with Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
His scepticism regarding gay marriage and pro-family image might gain him a few votes but I wold not expect him to get many Muslim votes except as the less of two evils in a dual with Le Pen.
The big question is Bayrou. If he decided not to stand, and he's on about 8% in the polls, and to endorse Macron, that would make the first round very close indeed.
However it all worked out pretty well in the end - we got the brilliant Elizabeth on the throne.
I rather think that the marriage failure made him vulnerable. Plus there was the political angle - a Lutheran alliance was becoming inconvenient for Henry.. he'd only gone for it for protection against an attack from the Emperor & Francis together. The alliance against England had failed to materialise and it was becoming clear that an attempted alliance with the Lutherans was provocative.
So Cromwell was the guy who'd screwed up finding the right wife, got him into an alliance with people he regarded as religiously beyond the pale, an alliance that was creating danger not reducing it... and upsetting the conservative nobles at home.. and running his mouth off about controlling the King.
Oops
As to UKIP, the situation I suggested is one in which the "establishment" are seen to thwart the will of the people. UKIP's vote could, perhaps, rise in those circumstances particularly amongst those who would never consider voting conservative
Thanks for the Fillon tip. I got on at 5.7.
I undefstand that there are about 4 million French of ethnic Maghrebi and African extraction. How many turnout to vote? Presumably very few for FN.
A sizable part of this population does not have French nationality and thus cannot vote.
But in 2012 exit polls gave Hollande more than 90% of the Muslim vote on the second round and their turnout was actually quite good.
However some pockets of FN support exist, especially in the Harki community (French-supporting Algerians evacuated in 1962) and in the worst crime-ridden communities.
The FN won élections in massively Muslim neighboorhoods of Marseille but mainly because of a very low turnout and scandals against socialist mayors.
Fillon is probably not very popular among some Muslims, being quite anti-immigration and strongly against ISIS and also critical of French ties with Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
His scepticism regarding gay marriage and pro-family image might gain him a few votes but I wold not expect him to get many Muslim votes except as the less of two evils in a dual with Le Pen.
You appear to be saying being strongly anti ISIS is a vote loser in certain sections of the community?
It depends how you phrase your opposition. Fillon wrote a book called "Defeating Islamic totalitarianism". Some French muslims find his language too aggressive even if they do not suppport ISIS.
That's why French socialists tend to use the Arabic acronym Daesch to avoid mentioning the word "Islamic"
Thanks for the Fillon tip. I got on at 5.7.
I undefstand that there are about 4 million French of ethnic Maghrebi and African extraction. How many turnout to vote? Presumably very few for FN.
A sizable part of this population does not have French nationality and thus cannot vote.
But in 2012 exit polls gave Hollande more than 90% of the Muslim vote on the second round and their turnout was actually quite good.
However some pockets of FN support exist, especially in the Harki community (French-supporting Algerians evacuated in 1962) and in the worst crime-ridden communities.
The FN won élections in massively Muslim neighboorhoods of Marseille but mainly because of a very low turnout and scandals against socialist mayors.
Fillon is probably not very popular among some Muslims, being quite anti-immigration and strongly against ISIS and also critical of French ties with Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
His scepticism regarding gay marriage and pro-family image might gain him a few votes but I wold not expect him to get many Muslim votes except as the less of two evils in a dual with Le Pen.
I thought French Muslims were largely secular even with a significant number who are devout?
The Muslim community is largely secular but religious observance is rising and even among less religious people some practices (ramadan, halal food and Muslim tradtional clothing) are much more prevalent than they were 20 years ago.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/38047126?client=ms-android-oneplus
"It will hire 500 additional employees, including engineers, marketers, project managers and sales staff."
Unless, you suggest that we become another Bangalore [ with several times the wages ].
9% of their targets being in Syria would fit with that. Newton Dunn appears to be criticizing the RAF for not spending more time in Syria, contrary to their mandate
Speaking from personal experience, that's an awesome set of boxes ticked.
Cameron didn't need to seek Parliamentary authorisation, but he chose to. Unless Parliament revisits their position then that remains a constraint on how the executive can act.
If someone had hung around with Bairstow, England would've won.
you mean everybody outside Paris ie 80% of the French
He's the interim Frexit candidate. The last stop before Le Pen.
He thinks a federal Europe is now a pipe dream and authority needs to sit with the European Council rather than Parliament with some return of authority to nation states.
Edit:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Shader
I suspect we're going to bring in Buttler for Duckett for the next test.
Never mind, for now there is always the Ozzies to laugh at. They picked a brit to play for them, they are so desperate.
* although I did study constitutional government at uni for s&g
Oh to be retired! I was reading a RemCom policy paper at 5.30 am...
I think working out if this is good or bad for us is quite complicated.
There was an earlier one allowing attacks in Iraq.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Shader
There were the attacks by in Syria before last year's vote by RAF pilots embedded with US forces, but that doesn't seem to be what the tweet was about.
If they go down the route of l'exception francise and ignore the rules then so will everyone else and the euro will disintegrate.
Diplomatically France also cocked up on Brexit. The EU only has 3 "serious" countries Germany, France and UK. It's a kind of triangle where on core iisues two could always gang up against the other. France now has no-one to back them up against the Germans in a dispute. The German with their customary tact will push France down roads it does not wish to go. France lost a large chunk of it's ability to manoeuvrre when we voted out.
NEW THREAD
Anglo Saxons tend to be more sceptical of an overweening state
Macron's big problem is that he's fighting for the centrist vote with Bayrou, who's currently on about 8% in the polls. If Bayrou were to choose not to stand, which is by no means unlikely, then that 20-1 would look very, very tempting.