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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Fillon heads for victory and looks set to be the one who’ll fi

SystemSystem Posts: 12,265
edited November 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Fillon heads for victory and looks set to be the one who’ll fight Marine le Pen to be next French President

Francois Fillon – the ex-French PM who looks set to fight the the Presidency next April against Marine le Pen pic.twitter.com/azIqkK14Im

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Glorious first!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Right vs. far right? Poor lefties... :p
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,551
    3rd, like Sarkozy
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,403
    I think Steve Bannon has a poor a grasp of history as Morris Dancer, does anyone want to tell him how it ended for Thomas Cromwell?

    https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/800448275958603776
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    What happened to Macron?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,403
    Huzzah, Hammond is continuity Osborne.

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/800454504646934528
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,403
    edited November 2016
    I do love the quasi AV system they are using for this primary
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Huzzah, Hammond is continuity Osborne.

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/800454504646934528

    An early election is probably not on the cards then.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,783
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think Steve Bannon has a poor a grasp of history as Morris Dancer, does anyone want to tell him how it ended for Thomas Cromwell?

    https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/800448275958603776

    He's only seen the BBC series.

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2016

    Long story short:

    After he led the first Brexit for his King, he has his head chopped off due to providing the King with an ugly wife.
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think Steve Bannon has a poor a grasp of history as Morris Dancer, does anyone want to tell him how it ended for Thomas Cromwell?

    https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/800448275958603776



  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    Poor Monsieur Fish has sunk to the bottom.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Speedy said:


    Long story short:

    After he led the first Brexit for his King, he has his head chopped off due to providing the King with an ugly wife.

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think Steve Bannon has a poor a grasp of history as Morris Dancer, does anyone want to tell him how it ended for Thomas Cromwell?

    https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/800448275958603776



    Watching the Cromwell documentary on BBC4?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,743
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think Steve Bannon has a poor a grasp of history as Morris Dancer, does anyone want to tell him how it ended for Thomas Cromwell?

    https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/800448275958603776

    That might be the point he is making.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    What happened to Macron?

    He would have preferred to face Sarkozy.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Huzzah, Hammond is continuity Osborne.

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/800454504646934528

    Punishment Budget incoming....?

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2016
    Mortimer said:

    Speedy said:


    Long story short:

    After he led the first Brexit for his King, he has his head chopped off due to providing the King with an ugly wife.

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think Steve Bannon has a poor a grasp of history as Morris Dancer, does anyone want to tell him how it ended for Thomas Cromwell?

    https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/800448275958603776



    Watching the Cromwell documentary on BBC4?
    No.

    I made an educated guess based on what I remember of renaissance history.

    Thankfully for Bannon, Melania is a beautiful wife for Trump.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Hmm, my book has taken a bashing, I think this will right itself in the end, but we shall see.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    TBH I am getting sick of opinion polls and betting suddenly crossing over like this. Every graph I see shows the underdog suddenly winning very comfortably.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,743
    Juppe really has crashed and burned.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,906
    Mortimer said:


    Watching the Cromwell documentary on BBC4?

    About the fall and rise of Marco Rubio?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Hmm, my book has taken a bashing, I think this will right itself in the end, but we shall see.

    Underwater here too. Filon best win the primary now..
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    weejonnie said:

    TBH I am getting sick of opinion polls and betting suddenly crossing over like this. Every graph I see shows the underdog suddenly winning very comfortably.

    I warned everyone on PB that the french polls for those primaries might be crap because no one knew who would actually vote.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    The Graph is pure polling and media bollocks.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    MikeK said:

    The Graph is pure polling and media bollocks.

    For a 4th time in a row (US primaries, Brexit, US election, French primaries).
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    @TSE - I don't see any reason why it should be any different.

    Hammond will simply push out the budget balance target (and balance of spending/tax cuts) to 2022/2023.

    Osborne himself tillered his course multiple times.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Fillon seems a fan of Trump and Putin too:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/800458483179159552
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Juppé vows to fight on.

    Meanwhile Fillon is on 44.1% and has been backed by Sarkozy on 20.9%, with 80% counted.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,838
    Speedy said:


    Long story short:

    After he led the first Brexit for his King, he has his head chopped off due to providing the King with an ugly wife.

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think Steve Bannon has a poor a grasp of history as Morris Dancer, does anyone want to tell him how it ended for Thomas Cromwell?

    https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/800448275958603776



    Lol, Watch out Melania....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    I might be wrong here, but my gut instinct tells me Fillon is someone who might sound and look a bit different, but will offer little palpable change, from any other French President, upon taking office.

    I hope I'm wrong.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Juppé vows to fight on.

    Meanwhile Fillon is on 44.1% and has been backed by Sarkozy on 20.9%, with 80% counted.

    "Juppe vows to fight on"

    With what? Fillon is almost at 50% already and has the backing of Sarkozy too.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Speedy said:

    Fillon seems a fan of Trump and Putin too:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/800458483179159552

    Well thats quite interesting: will Fillon make a place for Marine Le Pen in his cabinet if he wins, or will Marine Le Pen save a place for Fillon if she wins?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    MikeK said:

    Speedy said:

    Fillon seems a fan of Trump and Putin too:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/800458483179159552

    Well thats quite interesting: will Fillon make a place for Marine Le Pen in his cabinet if he wins, or will Marine Le Pen save a place for Fillon if she wins?
    Neither, from next week when Fillon wins, his opponent for the next five months will be Le Pen. No point letting her in.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Casino_Royale said:

    I might be wrong here, but my gut instinct tells me Fillon is someone who might sound and look a bit different, but will offer little palpable change, from any other French President, upon taking office.

    I hope I'm wrong.

    Lol lets not count our chickens here yet...

    If the left have swollen Les Republicans numbers and come out for him in a big primary turnout thats a good sign that he is err good shape.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,768
    BBC News Merkel ahead in opinion polls


    Lay Merkel!!!!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,906
    Fillon's tenure as PM coincided with Putin's break from the Presidency when he was Russian PM (and relations with the West were better generally) so they have experience working together.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Le Maire backs Fillon, NKM backs Juppé, Sarkozy backs Fillon.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    MikeK said:

    Speedy said:

    Fillon seems a fan of Trump and Putin too:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/800458483179159552

    Well thats quite interesting: will Fillon make a place for Marine Le Pen in his cabinet if he wins, or will Marine Le Pen save a place for Fillon if she wins?
    There was intense speculation in 2014 and 2015 that if Le Pen won the Presidency she would offer Sarkozy the post of PM in a Republican-FN coalition due to FN's weakness in parliament.

    I doubt if the same thing is replicable with Fillon.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I do love the quasi AV system they are using for this primary

    Your public school tw@ttery is showing!

    It's NOT AV because voters could only express a single preference.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,906
    O/T, Putin must have one of the worst foreign names to render in French. If you simply used the Latin alphabet the pronunciation would sound like 'putain', but the form they use 'Poutine' is the same as the French Canadian dish of chips and gravy so he can't win either way.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Pulpstar said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I might be wrong here, but my gut instinct tells me Fillon is someone who might sound and look a bit different, but will offer little palpable change, from any other French President, upon taking office.

    I hope I'm wrong.

    Lol lets not count our chickens here yet...

    If the left have swollen Les Republicans numbers and come out for him in a big primary turnout thats a good sign that he is err good shape.
    That opinion poll with the differign turnouts - what figures did it say represented a low/medium/high?

    It looks as if 4m ballots were cast
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,906
    French celebs call for an end to Hollande-bashing.

    http://www.lejdd.fr/Politique/Deneuve-Binoche-Biolay-Une-cinquantaine-de-personnalites-disent-stop-au-Hollande-bashing-825751
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,919
    edited November 2016
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    What happened to Macron?

    Macron is not a member of Les Republicans.
    Speedy said:

    Fillon seems a fan of Trump and Putin too:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/800458483179159552

    He's said for some time, in the Shroder mold, that it is better to have a working relationship with the Russians.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    williamglenn said:

    French celebs call for an end to Hollande-bashing.

    http://www.lejdd.fr/Politique/Deneuve-Binoche-Biolay-Une-cinquantaine-de-personnalites-disent-stop-au-Hollande-bashing-825751

    Last time I checked Hollande had a 4% approval rating.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,403
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/800464362066640896
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I do love the quasi AV system they are using for this primary

    Your public school tw@ttery is showing!

    It's NOT AV because voters could only express a single preference.
    He's just trolling!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,906
    rcs1000 said:

    He's said for some time, in the Shroder mold, that it is better to have a working relationship with the Russians.

    Schroeder literally has a working relationship with the Russians.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I do love the quasi AV system they are using for this primary

    Your public school tw@ttery is showing!

    It's NOT AV because voters could only express a single preference.
    He's just trolling!
    So am I - do you really think that I think he's a PST? :lol:
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I really like the way Bannon is going all out at projecting this idea that the Trump campaign always knew it was going to win and it was an unstoppable juggernaut. The article on the Trump data guys made it clear that they thought they had lost up until the Florida count came in and they redid their projections.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/800464362066640896

    clucking bell!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    I reckon the polls are going to be wrong in Italy too.

    70-30 "No" - Can see it now.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited November 2016
    That graph looks familiar. The pollsters ballsed it up yet again.
    SeanT said:

    A lot of French lefties will find it impossible to vote for the Thatcherite Fillon (if he wins the next primary, as is highly likely)

    Fillon as the right's candidate makes a Le Pen presidency more probable.

    I wonder, therefore, if FN supporters have secretly been voting for Fillon. All very murky.

    Probably some have. But Juppé was never going to win.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,333
    SeanT said:

    A lot of French lefties will find it impossible to vote for the Thatcherite Fillon (if he wins the next primary, as is highly likely)

    Fillon as the right's candidate makes a Le Pen presidency more probable.

    I wonder, therefore, if FN supporters have secretly been voting for Fillon. All very murky.

    Nah, they would have voted for Sarkozy if that was the strategy.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,997
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I do love the quasi AV system they are using for this primary

    Your public school tw@ttery is showing!

    It's NOT AV because voters could only express a single preference.
    They can express two preferences, just not on the same ballot paper. It's effectively SV by exhaustive ballot.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    SeanT said:

    A lot of French lefties will find it impossible to vote for the Thatcherite Fillon (if he wins the next primary, as is highly likely)

    Fillon as the right's candidate makes a Le Pen presidency more probable.

    I wonder, therefore, if FN supporters have secretly been voting for Fillon. All very murky.

    Le Monde don't think Fillon has a probelm with teh left:

    "Comment expliquer une telle mobilisation en faveur de F. Fillon ?" (How do you explain the mobilisation in favour of Fillon)

    "Donc un certain nombre d'électeurs de gauche sont allés voter à la primaire de la droite, sans doute pour éliminer le candidat dont ils ne voulaient pas et qui avait pour nom Nicolas Sarkozy." (So a number of voters from the left have voted in the primary of the right, presumably to eliminate the candidate they like the least - Nicolas Sarkozy)

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,906
    SeanT said:

    A lot of French lefties will find it impossible to vote for the Thatcherite Fillon (if he wins the next primary, as is highly likely)

    Fillon as the right's candidate makes a Le Pen presidency more probable.

    It's difficult to say. I always thought her preferred opponent would be Sarkozy because she clearly gets inside his head and he was liable to try so hard to outflank her that people might as well vote for the real thing. With Fillon as the candidate there will be much more of a spotlight on her economic policies.

    My money's now on either Fillon or Macron winning and the story being about France getting serious about economic reform.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited November 2016
    SeanT said:

    A lot of French lefties will find it impossible to vote for the Thatcherite Fillon (if he wins the next primary, as is highly likely)

    Fillon as the right's candidate makes a Le Pen presidency more probable.

    I wonder, therefore, if FN supporters have secretly been voting for Fillon. All very murky.

    Not as murky as the beheading of Thomas Cromwell wich I watched four times today on four different programs on the lives of Henry VIII and Cromwell. We could do with someone as clever and as devious as Cromwell was, to lead in Britain today.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    SeanT said:

    This graph underlines the utter irrelevancy of the Left, in France as elsewhere.

    The highest placed Left candidate is given a 5% chance.

    5%

    In the great western democracies we might be seeing a new realignment, from Left versus Right to Centre Right versus Hard Right.

    Macron is a Blairite, the evidence is that he gains plenty - perhaps even most - of his support from the right.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited November 2016
    david_herdson said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I do love the quasi AV system they are using for this primary

    Your public school tw@ttery is showing!

    It's NOT AV because voters could only express a single preference.
    They can express two preferences, just not on the same ballot paper. It's effectively SV by exhaustive ballot.
    First round, vote wiz ze 'eart; second round, vote wiz ze 'ead :)
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Dromedary said:

    david_herdson said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I do love the quasi AV system they are using for this primary

    Your public school tw@ttery is showing!

    It's NOT AV because voters could only express a single preference.
    They can express two preferences, just not on the same ballot paper. It's effectively SV by exhaustive ballot.
    First round, vote wiz ze 'eart; second round, vote wiz ze 'ead :)
    They can't always express a second preference that matches their actual second preference, though.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    david_herdson said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I do love the quasi AV system they are using for this primary

    Your public school tw@ttery is showing!

    It's NOT AV because voters could only express a single preference.
    They can express two preferences, just not on the same ballot paper. It's effectively SV by exhaustive ballot.
    So the same as the Tory Party election.

    AV has preferences expressed on the same ballot (ie. the same round of voting).
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,906
    SeanT said:

    he's Catholic conservative on social issues, anti-abortion, etc

    If Le Pen is smart (which she is) she'll try to push him into a corner on his gay rights record and pose as their defender against islamification of society.
    SeanT said:

    In the great western democracies we might be seeing a new realignment, from Left versus Right to Centre Right versus Hard Right.

    And yet somehow, Corbyn...
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited November 2016
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Dromedary said:

    david_herdson said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I do love the quasi AV system they are using for this primary

    Your public school tw@ttery is showing!

    It's NOT AV because voters could only express a single preference.
    They can express two preferences, just not on the same ballot paper. It's effectively SV by exhaustive ballot.
    First round, vote wiz ze 'eart; second round, vote wiz ze 'ead :)
    They can't always express a second preference that matches their actual second preference, though.
    Very true. In this Republican contest, that will be true for most voters.

    Sometimes ze 'ead says the same as ze 'eart! :)
    SeanT said:

    williamglenn said:

    My money's now on either Fillon or Macron winning and the story being about France getting serious about economic reform.

    Fillon is almost Trumpian in aspects of Foreign Policy.

    Macron has no chance.
    From two weeks' time, there will be only two candidates in the race with a chance of running. Fillon will be the punters' and pollsters' strong favourite. But the pollsters could balls up again - that seems to be their big thing at the moment. Events could occur. Breitbart may also start playing a major role in France. That will be one of my major indicators, regardless of what the polls say.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,333
    williamglenn said:

    SeanT said:

    he's Catholic conservative on social issues, anti-abortion, etc

    If Le Pen is smart (which she is) she'll try to push him into a corner on his gay rights record and pose as their defender against islamification of society.
    SeanT said:

    In the great western democracies we might be seeing a new realignment, from Left versus Right to Centre Right versus Hard Right.

    And yet somehow, Corbyn...
    If UKIP get their act together they could be the main opposition to the Tories within two cycles.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Juppe has won Boardeaux, and the most racially diverse bit of Paris.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,906
    SeanT said:

    Fillon is almost Trumpian in aspects of Foreign Policy.

    In the clip posted below he mentioned the Iraq war as starting point of the breakdown in relations between Russia and the US and says it's the cause of the current mess in the Middle East. I'd characterise it as a Chiraquien foreign policy.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,783
    williamglenn said:

    SeanT said:

    he's Catholic conservative on social issues, anti-abortion, etc

    If Le Pen is smart (which she is) she'll try to push him into a corner on his gay rights record and pose as their defender against islamification of society.
    SeanT said:

    In the great western democracies we might be seeing a new realignment, from Left versus Right to Centre Right versus Hard Right.

    And yet somehow, Corbyn...

    People like Corbyn ensure it's the right's game now. They own it all. They will mess it up. We've been here before. Times will change once more. It's how history works.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    edited November 2016
    Good re-moaning!

    I brung you a massage:

    Francois Fallon has won the fist round pramary for Les Repooblican condidate for Frunch Preesident.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    India 1.2
    England 48
    Draw 7

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/cricket/event?id=28016089&exp=e
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Pulpstar said:

    Juppe has won Boardeaux, and the most racially diverse bit of Paris.

    Bordeaux voted for their mayor.

    Do you have a map?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    williamglenn said:

    SeanT said:

    Fillon is almost Trumpian in aspects of Foreign Policy.

    In the clip posted below he mentioned the Iraq war as starting point of the breakdown in relations between Russia and the US and says it's the cause of the current mess in the Middle East. I'd characterise it as a Chiraquien foreign policy.
    As one person described it earlier on French TV. Then it descended into a discussion of de Gaulle which was beyond my french.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    AndyJS said:

    India 1.2
    England 48
    Draw 7

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/cricket/event?id=28016089&exp=e

    I have an app, cricviz -

    The implied prices are as follows:

    India 1.12
    Draw 11.91
    England 50
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    India 1.2
    England 48
    Draw 7

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/cricket/event?id=28016089&exp=e

    I have an app, cricviz -

    The implied prices are as follows:

    India 1.12
    Draw 11.91
    England 50
    Come on Indi....er, give the Caste-botherers hell!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Juppe has won Boardeaux, and the most racially diverse bit of Paris.

    Bordeaux voted for their mayor.

    Do you have a map?
    https://twitter.com/martinmichelot/status/800459416227217408
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,403
    Uh oh


    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/800470504729550848
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Pulpstar said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Juppe has won Boardeaux, and the most racially diverse bit of Paris.

    Bordeaux voted for their mayor.

    Do you have a map?
    https://twitter.com/martinmichelot/status/800459416227217408
    Looks pretty comprehensive to me.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    MaxPB said:

    williamglenn said:

    SeanT said:

    he's Catholic conservative on social issues, anti-abortion, etc

    If Le Pen is smart (which she is) she'll try to push him into a corner on his gay rights record and pose as their defender against islamification of society.
    SeanT said:

    In the great western democracies we might be seeing a new realignment, from Left versus Right to Centre Right versus Hard Right.

    And yet somehow, Corbyn...
    If UKIP get their act together they could be the main opposition to the Tories within two cycles.
    UKIP could do better than that.

    May: "Let's give lots of visas to Indians in return for investment"
    Corbyn: "We are the party of immigration"
    Farron: "Let's stay in the EU"

    (I write as a Remainer, just to be clear. But against the three main parties in the Commons, UKIP probably won't have a difficult ride, so long as they get themselves a leader and stop manhandling each other. Breitbart and Trump may be able to help.)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Juppe has won Boardeaux, and the most racially diverse bit of Paris.

    Bordeaux voted for their mayor.

    Do you have a map?
    https://twitter.com/martinmichelot/status/800459416227217408
    Looks pretty comprehensive to me.
    Trump vs Kasich stuff in terms of geography.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    Pulpstar said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Juppe has won Boardeaux, and the most racially diverse bit of Paris.

    Bordeaux voted for their mayor.

    Do you have a map?
    https://twitter.com/martinmichelot/status/800459416227217408
    Looks like a map of Henry II's holdings in France in the 12th century :)
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Pulpstar said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Juppe has won Boardeaux, and the most racially diverse bit of Paris.

    Bordeaux voted for their mayor.

    Do you have a map?
    https://twitter.com/martinmichelot/status/800459416227217408
    Looks pretty comprehensive to me.
    Trump vs Kasich stuff in terms of geography.
    The important thing is Fillon won cities, that vote Socialist, and the north east and south east which vote FN.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Uh oh


    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/800470504729550848

    Could help with the pro-expansion voters though.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Juppe has won Boardeaux, and the most racially diverse bit of Paris.

    Bordeaux voted for their mayor.

    Do you have a map?
    https://twitter.com/martinmichelot/status/800459416227217408
    Looks like a map of Henry II's holdings in France in the 12th century :)
    Nah! Henry held more territory than that; and then there were the White Companies to consider.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Dromedary said:

    MaxPB said:

    williamglenn said:

    SeanT said:

    he's Catholic conservative on social issues, anti-abortion, etc

    If Le Pen is smart (which she is) she'll try to push him into a corner on his gay rights record and pose as their defender against islamification of society.
    SeanT said:

    In the great western democracies we might be seeing a new realignment, from Left versus Right to Centre Right versus Hard Right.

    And yet somehow, Corbyn...
    If UKIP get their act together they could be the main opposition to the Tories within two cycles.
    UKIP could do better than that.

    May: "Let's give lots of visas to Indians in return for investment"
    Corbyn: "We are the party of immigration"
    Farron: "Let's stay in the EU"

    (I write as a Remainer, just to be clear. But against the three main parties in the Commons, UKIP probably won't have a difficult ride, so long as they get themselves a leader and stop manhandling each other. Breitbart and Trump may be able to help.)
    Nah. UKIP won only one seat at the GE and that with a reduced majority against a Cameroonite. UKIP will remain a fringe party, even more so after Brexit, following which they may well expire.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,906
    foxinsoxuk said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Uh oh


    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/800470504729550848

    Could help with the pro-expansion voters though.

    The only thing I take from that story is that the Tories are frit.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,997
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    david_herdson said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I do love the quasi AV system they are using for this primary

    Your public school tw@ttery is showing!

    It's NOT AV because voters could only express a single preference.
    They can express two preferences, just not on the same ballot paper. It's effectively SV by exhaustive ballot.
    So the same as the Tory Party election.

    AV has preferences expressed on the same ballot (ie. the same round of voting).
    Not quite. The French system is analagous to SV, with only two rounds (maximum) and where only the two leading candidates go through if no-one takes over 50%; the Tory system is like AV, with as many rounds as necessary until someone exceeds 50%, with the bottom-most candidate dropping out each time.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Juppe has won Boardeaux, and the most racially diverse bit of Paris.

    Bordeaux voted for their mayor.

    Do you have a map?
    https://twitter.com/martinmichelot/status/800459416227217408
    Looks pretty comprehensive to me.
    Trump vs Kasich stuff in terms of geography.
    The important thing is Fillon won cities, that vote Socialist, and the north east and south east which vote FN.
    The big turnout is a good sign also.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    MikeK said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Juppe has won Boardeaux, and the most racially diverse bit of Paris.

    Bordeaux voted for their mayor.

    Do you have a map?
    https://twitter.com/martinmichelot/status/800459416227217408
    Looks like a map of Henry II's holdings in France in the 12th century :)
    Nah! Henry held more territory than that; and then there were the White Companies to consider.
    Sorry, I did mean, of course Edward III's holdings in c.1330. Oops!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    david_herdson said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    david_herdson said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I do love the quasi AV system they are using for this primary

    Your public school tw@ttery is showing!

    It's NOT AV because voters could only express a single preference.
    They can express two preferences, just not on the same ballot paper. It's effectively SV by exhaustive ballot.
    So the same as the Tory Party election.

    AV has preferences expressed on the same ballot (ie. the same round of voting).
    Not quite. The French system is analagous to SV, with only two rounds (maximum) and where only the two leading candidates go through if no-one takes over 50%; the Tory system is like AV, with as many rounds as necessary until someone exceeds 50%, with the bottom-most candidate dropping out each time.
    The Tory system is NOT AV. It's an Exhaustive Ballot.

    Voters get only one vote per round. They cannot list the candidates in each round in order of preference.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Pulpstar said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Juppe has won Boardeaux, and the most racially diverse bit of Paris.

    Bordeaux voted for their mayor.

    Do you have a map?
    https://twitter.com/martinmichelot/status/800459416227217408
    Looks pretty comprehensive to me.
    Trump vs Kasich stuff in terms of geography.
    The important thing is Fillon won cities, that vote Socialist, and the north east and south east which vote FN.
    The big turnout is a good sign also.
    Juppé's problem is that he needs even high turnout from the left, whereas some will now feel that with Sarko eliminated there is no need for them to bother.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,919
    SeanT said:

    williamglenn said:

    SeanT said:

    A lot of French lefties will find it impossible to vote for the Thatcherite Fillon (if he wins the next primary, as is highly likely)

    Fillon as the right's candidate makes a Le Pen presidency more probable.

    It's difficult to say. I always thought her preferred opponent would be Sarkozy because she clearly gets inside his head and he was liable to try so hard to outflank her that people might as well vote for the real thing. With Fillon as the candidate there will be much more of a spotlight on her economic policies.

    My money's now on either Fillon or Macron winning and the story being about France getting serious about economic reform.
    Fillon is almost Trumpian in aspects of Foreign Policy.

    Macron has no chance.
    If Bayrou doesn't stand it could easily be the case that Macron and Fillon are in the low 20s, and Le Pen on c. 30%.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    foxinsoxuk said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Uh oh


    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/800470504729550848

    Could help with the pro-expansion voters though.

    Hear that? That's the sound of the world's smallest straw being clutched......
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,919
    Pulpstar said:

    I reckon the polls are going to be wrong in Italy too.

    70-30 "No" - Can see it now.

    I think it'll be No by at least 10%. Of course, fear of Five Star is one of the factors motivating a "No" vote.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    So Juppe massively failed against expectations. Unsurprising as he seemed to offer little real promise of change from the Hollande era, and was basically the French Hillary Clinton.

    Fillon is the most anglo-saxon market conservative in his outlook, and I don't see that being popular in France at the moment. Just look at the backlash to the recent labour reforms proposed by Hollande.

    Le Pen will clean up big time amongst the socialist base (not the "bobo" parisian types of course) in the second round.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Hmm, I'm effectively now on Fillon at 1.36, with Juppé sitting at a more acceptable loss than the rest.

    I'd value my book at -£130, if Fillon does see off Juppé, he's likely to be 1.5, which would be -£60.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,919
    Paristonda said:

    So Juppe massively failed against expectations. Unsurprising as he seemed to offer little real promise of change from the Hollande era, and was basically the French Hillary Clinton.

    Fillon is the most anglo-saxon market conservative in his outlook, and I don't see that being popular in France at the moment. Just look at the backlash to the recent labour reforms proposed by Hollande.

    Le Pen will clean up big time amongst the socialist base (not the "bobo" parisian types of course) in the second round.

    It's a fascinating contest. Free market conservative, vs nationalist socialist. With a Blairite figure scoring high teens in the first round (which is only a smidgen behind Fillon's score).

  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Paristonda said:

    So Juppe massively failed against expectations. Unsurprising as he seemed to offer little real promise of change from the Hollande era, and was basically the French Hillary Clinton.

    Fillon is the most anglo-saxon market conservative in his outlook, and I don't see that being popular in France at the moment. Just look at the backlash to the recent labour reforms proposed by Hollande.

    Le Pen will clean up big time amongst the socialist base (not the "bobo" parisian types of course) in the second round.

    Juppé is Cameron, Fillon is May and Sarkozy is Farage, if one were forced to pick. (Fillon is more Catholic though!)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,906
    If it's possible to bet on a first round outright victory in France it might offer some value. Either people thinking they get a free protest vote for Le Pen who end up pushing her over the line, or a consolidation around Fillon.
  • Chris_from_ParisChris_from_Paris Posts: 198
    Incredible result... And a rare day when I am both satisfied politically (I voted Fillon) and financially, thanks to frantic Fillon backing and Juppé laying these past few days.

    I hope many of you got on board the Fillon train on Tuesday when he was at 7 on Betfair and I (wioth others such as Dromedary) pointed out he was clearly mispriced.

    I Layed out as his price is probably as low as it will get in a while. The next interesting moves will probably occur when we get the first post-primary polls and when Bayrou says if he will be a candidate against Fillon or not.

    I expect the prices of Macron and the main socialists to tighten a bit from their current very high level.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited November 2016
    MarqueeMark said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Uh oh


    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/800470504729550848

    Could help with the pro-expansion voters though.

    Hear that? That's the sound of the world's smallest straw being clutched......
    My bet on this is the 5/1 with Shadsy on Zac winning with a majority of less than 2500. I think there will be a low turnout even by byelection standards. It is a pointless vanity election with no Tory standing and all the major parties fielding anti-Heathrow candidates.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited November 2016
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Dromedary said:

    MaxPB said:

    williamglenn said:

    SeanT said:

    he's Catholic conservative on social issues, anti-abortion, etc

    If Le Pen is smart (which she is) she'll try to push him into a corner on his gay rights record and pose as their defender against islamification of society.
    SeanT said:

    In the great western democracies we might be seeing a new realignment, from Left versus Right to Centre Right versus Hard Right.

    And yet somehow, Corbyn...
    If UKIP get their act together they could be the main opposition to the Tories within two cycles.
    UKIP could do better than that.

    May: "Let's give lots of visas to Indians in return for investment"
    Corbyn: "We are the party of immigration"
    Farron: "Let's stay in the EU"

    (I write as a Remainer, just to be clear. But against the three main parties in the Commons, UKIP probably won't have a difficult ride, so long as they get themselves a leader and stop manhandling each other. Breitbart and Trump may be able to help.)
    Nah. UKIP won only one seat at the GE and that with a reduced majority against a Cameroonite. UKIP will remain a fringe party, even more so after Brexit, following which they may well expire.
    Who would their voters switch to? Things have changed. The vibe at the next election may be anywhere from halfway between the GE2015 vibe and the EUref vibe to well on the other side of the EUref vibe. What are people in the Leavite horde supposed to think, having voted Leave on immigration, when Corbyn says he loves immigration, Farron says let's stay in the EU, and May says "er"? Maybe Steve Bannon could help with the UKIP campaign. The line that the Tories didn't hear the voters' message could be quite successful.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,114
    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think Steve Bannon has a poor a grasp of history as Morris Dancer, does anyone want to tell him how it ended for Thomas Cromwell?

    https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/800448275958603776

    That might be the point he is making.
    What is often ignored is that Cromwell was a convinced "protestant" (yes, bit anachronistic to use that). Part of the charges against him were that he was said to have said that he was guiding the King down the hard core reformation path and that he would "prevent" the King from turning back....

    One interpretation of his fall was that Henry wanted Catholicism without the Pope - basically Cromwell went too far and so he got the chop.

    Another is that he was sacrificed by the King to send a message to the nobility that the reformation was not going Lutheran...

    Notably, around the time he fell, there was an execution of Catholics for refusing to acknowledge the Supremacy and an execution of "protestants" for being heretics.
This discussion has been closed.