Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Worried about BREXIT – fear no more. Tony Blair is coming to t

13

Comments

  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @tnewtondunn: Tory hard Brexiters cannot be loyal to PM and push for customs union departure at same time, as @SuellaFernandes mauling just proved #bbcsp
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @tnewtondunn: Now @JamesMcGrory savaged for spinning Leavers. Replies: "I challenge anyone to represent them accurately, such a range of opinions" #bbcsp
  • Options
    CD13 said:

    I don't worry about Brexit anymore. It will be soon be a done deal, one way or the other.

    As done as the Trump election. Interesting phrase going round now ... 'Trump's opponents took him literally and not seriously. Trump's supporters took him seriously and not literally.' That neatly sums up the Trump enigma for me.

    I've doubts about the EU wanting a hard Brexit. The heads of Government may disagree. Cutting off nose to spite face may not go well with their voters.

    Not sure it will "soon be a done deal". Could take years.
  • Options

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Mr. Barnesian, I understand it, but it doesn't fit with how things work. We'll only have a deal once Article 50 is triggered and negotiations complete. After that, we leave on deal terms or on WTO terms, and any rejection of the deal would be binding only on the UK, not the EU. Not only that, such an approach (supposing we could revoke Article 50 and stay) would encourage the EU to give us actively hostile terms to harm us as much as possible and make it easier for the second referendum to be a victory for them...

    ..and for the 16.1 million of us who want to remain in the EU.
    But I do take your point.
    You lost. This is time to accept the result and move on. The longer you are stuck whinging about it the more unhealthy it is for you. They left you, get over it.
    I don't know, Leavers never got over it and never stopped whinging and in the end the time came and they just convinced us.
    And remember the most potent argument they used, regardless of its veracity: they lied to us!
    Winning the referendum was the worst thing that could ever have happened to the eurosceptics. It's only a question of time now before their whole case against the EU becomes forever discredited in the minds of the public.
    straws clutching at.
    I'm sure some American loyalists were saying the same thing in the 1780s and likewise Jacobites in the 1690s.

    The problem the EUNationalists have is that after having left the EU there will not be the option to re-join on the old terms. Re-joining will require Euro membership and a complete acceptance of EverCloserUnion.

    Now EverCloserUnion is what the EUNationalists want but its very much a minority view.
  • Options
    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    Dr P,

    I'm happy to take your word that Jezza is polite to your face. But when it comes to hard questions from the media, he can be a real mardy-arse. Trump can be too, but we expect it from Septics.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,349
    Charles said:

    Blue_rog said:

    Serious question

    If the remainers do hold a majority position in the Commons, could they collude and add an amendment to any substantive legislation that would overturn the result of the referendum if passed?

    They can't "overturn" the result of the referendum because it is only advisory, but they can frustrate it.

    e.g. an amendment that Article 50 can only be served following a unanimous vote of the house of commons.
    Technical note on this. The Speaker of the Commons will decide whether an amendment is valid or not (yes, it's suddenly Be Nice to Bercow Month). The basic criteria are that it is not a wrecking amendment and that it has significant support. In my view (I can't speak for Bercow, obviously), a "unanimous vote only" amendment would be wrecking, while an amendment requiring that Britain's negotiating demands be put to the Commons in amendable form would not be a wrecking amendment.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,028
    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Is Tony going to stand as a Labour MP? Or start his own political Party?

    Hard to see how much "influence" he can have outside that unfashionable dump called Parliament that so wasted his time...

    Morning GIN, all well with you
    Yes Malc I'm very well thank you.

    You OK? :)
    Hale and Hearty GIN, though not much fun on here recently , just lots of bollox and brexit doom and gloom.
    Meanwhile we are going to spash out £500M fitting new boiler and rewiring teh richest woman in the world's house and yet another borefest from Jakie Rowling. Still smiling despite it though.
  • Options

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Mr. Barnesian, I understand it, but it doesn't fit with how things work. We'll only have a deal once Article 50 is triggered and negotiations complete. After that, we leave on deal terms or on WTO terms, and any rejection of the deal would be binding only on the UK, not the EU. Not only that, such an approach (supposing we could revoke Article 50 and stay) would encourage the EU to give us actively hostile terms to harm us as much as possible and make it easier for the second referendum to be a victory for them...

    ..and for the 16.1 million of us who want to remain in the EU.
    But I do take your point.
    You lost. This is time to accept the result and move on. The longer you are stuck whinging about it the more unhealthy it is for you. They left you, get over it.
    I don't know, Leavers never got over it and never stopped whinging and in the end the time came and they just convinced us.
    And remember the most potent argument they used, regardless of its veracity: they lied to us!
    Winning the referendum was the worst thing that could ever have happened to the eurosceptics. It's only a question of time now before their whole case against the EU becomes forever discredited in the minds of the public.
    straws clutching at.
    I'm sure some American loyalists were saying the same thing in the 1780s and likewise Jacobites in the 1690s.
    The problem the EUNationalists have is that after having left the EU there will not be the option to re-join on the old terms. Re-joining will require Euro membership and a complete acceptance of EverCloserUnion.
    Now EverCloserUnion is what the EUNationalists want but its very much a minority view.
    Quite true. Over looking the direction that the EU was going in such as the "EU army", "common taxation" etc were the inconvenient truths that Remainers very rarely acknowledged.
  • Options

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Mr. Barnesian, I understand it, but it doesn't fit with how things work. We'll only have a deal once Article 50 is triggered and negotiations complete. After that, we leave on deal terms or on WTO terms, and any rejection of the deal would be binding only on the UK, not the EU. Not only that, such an approach (supposing we could revoke Article 50 and stay) would encourage the EU to give us actively hostile terms to harm us as much as possible and make it easier for the second referendum to be a victory for them...

    ..and for the 16.1 million of us who want to remain in the EU.
    But I do take your point.
    You lost. This is time to accept the result and move on. The longer you are stuck whinging about it the more unhealthy it is for you. They left you, get over it.
    I don't know, Leavers never got over it and never stopped whinging and in the end the time came and they just convinced us.
    And remember the most potent argument they used, regardless of its veracity: they lied to us!
    Winning the referendum was the worst thing that could ever have happened to the eurosceptics. It's only a question of time now before their whole case against the EU becomes forever discredited in the minds of the public.
    straws clutching at.
    I'm sure some American loyalists were saying the same thing in the 1780s and likewise Jacobites in the 1690s.

    The problem the EUNationalists have is that after having left the EU there will not be the option to re-join on the old terms. Re-joining will require Euro membership and a complete acceptance of EverCloserUnion.

    Now EverCloserUnion is what the EUNationalists want but its very much a minority view.
    Will English remain as an official language if we leave?
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    edited November 2016


    If the EU had mandated a national referendum in each country, for each treaty change, then Brexit would not have happened.

    The answer to complaints of no say is to give everyone a say. All the time. Given me Switzerland over Singapore....

    If the answer is "we are afraid that we might get the wrong answer" - you have already lost.

    If they did that there would never be a treaty change, regardless of its merits. Referendums have a little bit of randomness and chaos in them where people vote to show they're narked off with their national governments or whatever. You could have a proposal for motherhood and apple pie and you'd still lose it if you put it to 28 national referendums.

    The national equivalent would be saying that bills could only be passed if a referendum in every county in Britain voted for them. It's just not a practical way of making decisions: You just end up stuck with the status quo, no matter how bad it is.

    They could have a pan-European referendum on each new treaty and decide by a majority of EU voters, but I doubt that would satisfy the people in Britain who are complaining that they're not democratic.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,914

    Blue_rog said:

    O/T. Anyone else getting strange format for comments?

    Looks normal to me. Try emptying your browser cache; you might have some rogue piece of javascript stuck somewhere.

    Or you can try a hard-refresh (Ctrl-F5 on Firefox) that forces the page to reload everything.

    https://www.getfilecloud.com/blog/2015/03/tech-tip-how-to-do-hard-refresh-in-browsers
    If it is that all the comments go very small and run across the page too far, it will fix itself after about five more comments. It's a Vanilla formatting issue to do with posting long web links in comments that affects some browsers. iPads are particularly prone to it. Vanilla have it logged as a bug but no timescale for fixing it as yet.
  • Options
    Mr. G, don't worry, there's an excellent fantasy novel coming out in just a few days ;)

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Kingdom-Asunder-Bloody-Crown-Trilogy-ebook/dp/B01N8UF799/
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Mr. Barnesian, I understand it, but it doesn't fit with how things work. We'll only have a deal once Article 50 is triggered and negotiations complete. After that, we leave on deal terms or on WTO terms, and any rejection of the deal would be binding only on the UK, not the EU. Not only that, such an approach (supposing we could revoke Article 50 and stay) would encourage the EU to give us actively hostile terms to harm us as much as possible and make it easier for the second referendum to be a victory for them...

    ..and for the 16.1 million of us who want to remain in the EU.
    But I do take your point.
    You lost. This is time to accept the result and move on. The longer you are stuck whinging about it the more unhealthy it is for you. They left you, get over it.
    I don't know, Leavers never got over it and never stopped whinging and in the end the time came and they just convinced us.
    And remember the most potent argument they used, regardless of its veracity: they lied to us!

    Winning the referendum was the worst thing that could ever have happened to the eurosceptics. It's only a question of time now before their whole case against the EU becomes forever discredited in the minds of the public.
    ...and then you woke up.
  • Options
    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,040
    Blair calling Corbyn a nutter - I don't know whether to laugh or cry!

    Whatever you think of Corbyn he does come across a genuine man, unlike Blair of course!

    Let's call him for what he his, Blair is utter scum. And he's a war criminal to boot. How he and senior British commanders remain free over their illegal action in Iraq, God only knows! Classic example of Western double standards and hypocrisy!
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,914

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Mr. Barnesian, I understand it, but it doesn't fit with how things work. We'll only have a deal once Article 50 is triggered and negotiations complete. After that, we leave on deal terms or on WTO terms, and any rejection of the deal would be binding only on the UK, not the EU. Not only that, such an approach (supposing we could revoke Article 50 and stay) would encourage the EU to give us actively hostile terms to harm us as much as possible and make it easier for the second referendum to be a victory for them...

    ..and for the 16.1 million of us who want to remain in the EU.
    But I do take your point.
    You lost. This is time to accept the result and move on. The longer you are stuck whinging about it the more unhealthy it is for you. They left you, get over it.
    I don't know, Leavers never got over it and never stopped whinging and in the end the time came and they just convinced us.
    And remember the most potent argument they used, regardless of its veracity: they lied to us!
    Winning the referendum was the worst thing that could ever have happened to the eurosceptics. It's only a question of time now before their whole case against the EU becomes forever discredited in the minds of the public.
    straws clutching at.
    I'm sure some American loyalists were saying the same thing in the 1780s and likewise Jacobites in the 1690s.

    The problem the EUNationalists have is that after having left the EU there will not be the option to re-join on the old terms. Re-joining will require Euro membership and a complete acceptance of EverCloserUnion.

    Now EverCloserUnion is what the EUNationalists want but its very much a minority view.
    Will English remain as an official language if we leave?
    The Irish would like to hope so.
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Charles said:

    Blue_rog said:

    Serious question

    If the remainers do hold a majority position in the Commons, could they collude and add an amendment to any substantive legislation that would overturn the result of the referendum if passed?

    They can't "overturn" the result of the referendum because it is only advisory, but they can frustrate it.

    e.g. an amendment that Article 50 can only be served following a unanimous vote of the house of commons.
    Technical note on this. The Speaker of the Commons will decide whether an amendment is valid or not (yes, it's suddenly Be Nice to Bercow Month). The basic criteria are that it is not a wrecking amendment and that it has significant support. In my view (I can't speak for Bercow, obviously), a "unanimous vote only" amendment would be wrecking, while an amendment requiring that Britain's negotiating demands be put to the Commons in amendable form would not be a wrecking amendment.

    "an amendment requiring that Britain's negotiating demands be put to the Commons in amendable form"

    I would consider this to be wrecking. We cannot start the negotiations until A50 is triggered (i.e. after the Commons has voted). And we wouldn't be in a good position if the Commons tied the negotiators hands before we started.

    Unless the demands were so vague like "will get the best deal for Britain whilst leaving the EU", but I don't think that what's the Remainers would want.

  • Options
    I don't think you could put a fig leaf between the politics of Blair and Osborne. The problem is that their politics are stuck in the era of the mid-90s to the mid-00s.

    They are years out of date.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,467


    If the EU had mandated a national referendum in each country, for each treaty change, then Brexit would not have happened.

    The answer to complaints of no say is to give everyone a say. All the time. Given me Switzerland over Singapore....

    If the answer is "we are afraid that we might get the wrong answer" - you have already lost.

    If they did that there would never be a treaty change, regardless of its merits. Referendums have a little bit of randomness and chaos in them where people vote to show they're narked off with their national governments or whatever. You could have a proposal for motherhood and apple pie and you'd still lose it if you put it to 28 national referendums.

    The national equivalent would be saying that bills could only be passed if a referendum in every county in Britain voted for them. It's just not a practical way of making decisions: You just end up stuck with the status quo, no matter how bad it is.

    They could have a pan-European referendum on each new treaty and decide by a majority of EU voters, but I doubt that would satisfy the people in Britain who are complaining that they're not democratic.
    I think you are wrong - the familiarity of basically an annual referendum would turn it from being a political football (except in terms of the European arguments about it) quite rapidly.

    In Switzerland, the frequency of referenda on various subjects means that they tend to be fought on the issues, not used as political proxies.
  • Options
    That being said, the longer Theresa May prevaricates on this the longer the forces of resistance to Brexit have to mobilise.
  • Options

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Mr. Barnesian, I understand it, but it doesn't fit with how things work. We'll only have a deal once Article 50 is triggered and negotiations complete. After that, we leave on deal terms or on WTO terms, and any rejection of the deal would be binding only on the UK, not the EU. Not only that, such an approach (supposing we could revoke Article 50 and stay) would encourage the EU to give us actively hostile terms to harm us as much as possible and make it easier for the second referendum to be a victory for them...

    ..and for the 16.1 million of us who want to remain in the EU.
    But I do take your point.
    You lost. This is time to accept the result and move on. The longer you are stuck whinging about it the more unhealthy it is for you. They left you, get over it.
    I don't know, Leavers never got over it and never stopped whinging and in the end the time came and they just convinced us.
    And remember the most potent argument they used, regardless of its veracity: they lied to us!
    Winning the referendum was the worst thing that could ever have happened to the eurosceptics. It's only a question of time now before their whole case against the EU becomes forever discredited in the minds of the public.
    straws clutching at.
    I'm sure some American loyalists were saying the same thing in the 1780s and likewise Jacobites in the 1690s.

    The problem the EUNationalists have is that after having left the EU there will not be the option to re-join on the old terms. Re-joining will require Euro membership and a complete acceptance of EverCloserUnion.

    Now EverCloserUnion is what the EUNationalists want but its very much a minority view.
    Will English remain as an official language if we leave?
    I think the Irish would hope it does.

    But I think a certain loss of influence for the English language within the EU would be inevitable.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    CD13 said:

    I don't worry about Brexit anymore. It will be soon be a done deal, one way or the other.

    As done as the Trump election. Interesting phrase going round now ... 'Trump's opponents took him literally and not seriously. Trump's supporters took him seriously and not literally.' That neatly sums up the Trump enigma for me.

    I've doubts about the EU wanting a hard Brexit. The heads of Government may disagree. Cutting off nose to spite face may not go well with their voters.

    What I've found immensely amusing is the total misreading of Trump's tweeting yesterday about Hamilton. My timeline is full of UK journalists thinking he's being stupid as it fits with their personal view of him as an idiot - despite all the evidence to the contrary.

    He distracted the media for two news cycles and drew all attention away from more tutting about his Cabinet picks, and hilariously used the very same Safe Space language against media liberals. An obvious verbal trap that they ran straight in to - and failed entirely to see the joke he was playing on them.

    They really need to wise up and clear their prejudice cache. He offered them all hot chocolate and warm cookies last night - and they think he's coming round to them. Nope.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,087
    The argument for why we must press on with Brexit has a lot in common with Erdogan's argument for reinstating the death penalty. We must tear up a settled part of our constitution just because the people demand it, no matter what the cost to our domestic institutions, national unity, economic future or international standing.
  • Options
    A Lib Dem view on what is ahead, from an ex SPAD.
    http://nicktyrone.com/one-move-ends-eu/
    " I am becoming increasingly convinced that Marine Le Pen will win the French presidential election in April of next year......
    I fear for the future of the EU. As in, I really give it less than a 50% chance of surviving another decade."
  • Options

    I don't think you could put a fig leaf between the politics of Blair and Osborne. The problem is that their politics are stuck in the era of the mid-90s to the mid-00s.

    They are years out of date.

    They were built on the assumption that money would always be available.

    That the plebs would be kept pacified by 'bread and circuses' while the 'elite' modified the world to its wishes.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,171
    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: Now @JamesMcGrory savaged for spinning Leavers. Replies: "I challenge anyone to represent them accurately, such a range of opinions" #bbcsp

    Saw Andrew Neil skewering James McGrory of "Openeurope" .
    The popcorn is running out.
    LucyJones said:

    malcolmg said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Osborne, Blair & Jim Murphy !

    Lol

    what a parcel of rogues
    It gets worse: "Downing Street aides believe Blair and Osborne are part of an “unholy alliance” of “remainer” former ministers that also includes Lord Mandelson, Nicky Morgan, Anna Soubry and the former Labour frontbencher Chuka Umunna." (from same TImes article).
    Wonderful spectacle.
    Munching furiously.
  • Options


    If the EU had mandated a national referendum in each country, for each treaty change, then Brexit would not have happened.

    The answer to complaints of no say is to give everyone a say. All the time. Given me Switzerland over Singapore....

    If the answer is "we are afraid that we might get the wrong answer" - you have already lost.

    If they did that there would never be a treaty change, regardless of its merits. Referendums have a little bit of randomness and chaos in them where people vote to show they're narked off with their national governments or whatever. You could have a proposal for motherhood and apple pie and you'd still lose it if you put it to 28 national referendums.

    The national equivalent would be saying that bills could only be passed if a referendum in every county in Britain voted for them. It's just not a practical way of making decisions: You just end up stuck with the status quo, no matter how bad it is.

    They could have a pan-European referendum on each new treaty and decide by a majority of EU voters, but I doubt that would satisfy the people in Britain who are complaining that they're not democratic.
    I think you are wrong - the familiarity of basically an annual referendum would turn it from being a political football (except in terms of the European arguments about it) quite rapidly.

    In Switzerland, the frequency of referenda on various subjects means that they tend to be fought on the issues, not used as political proxies.
    So would you be happy making British government decisions based on the unanimous vote of all the counties?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,914

    The argument for why we must press on with Brexit has a lot in common with Erdogan's argument for reinstating the death penalty. We must tear up a settled part of our constitution just because the people demand it, no matter what the cost to our domestic institutions, national unity, economic future or international standing.

    Not because the people demand it as such, but because the politicians decided to put the question directly to the people themselves, and the people now wish the politicians to get on with implementing their decision.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,935
    Hmm, UKIP seems to have given up on Scotland.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,989
    edited November 2016
    Mr. Glenn, I'm not sure that asking the people their opinion then ignoring the majority will necessarily enhance national unity.

    Domestic institutions will be empowered, the economy will be freer to trade elsewhere (provided we leave the customs union) and our international standing will be increase as we'll be able to stand on our own two feet instead of contracting out an ever-increasing degree of our foreign policy to a useless, unaccountable cabal of bureaucratic eunuchs.

    [If we lave].

    Edited extra bit: and also leave*.
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Mr. Barnesian, I understand it, but it doesn't fit with how things work. We'll only have a deal once Article 50 is triggered and negotiations complete. After that, we leave on deal terms or on WTO terms, and any rejection of the deal would be binding only on the UK, not the EU. Not only that, such an approach (supposing we could revoke Article 50 and stay) would encourage the EU to give us actively hostile terms to harm us as much as possible and make it easier for the second referendum to be a victory for them...

    ..and for the 16.1 million of us who want to remain in the EU.
    But I do take your point.
    You lost. This is time to accept the result and move on. The longer you are stuck whinging about it the more unhealthy it is for you. They left you, get over it.
    I don't know, Leavers never got over it and never stopped whinging and in the end the time came and they just convinced us.
    And remember the most potent argument they used, regardless of its veracity: they lied to us!
    Winning the referendum was the worst thing that could ever have happened to the eurosceptics. It's only a question of time now before their whole case against the EU becomes forever discredited in the minds of the public.
    straws clutching at.
    I'm sure some American loyalists were saying the same thing in the 1780s and likewise Jacobites in the 1690s.

    The problem the EUNationalists have is that after having left the EU there will not be the option to re-join on the old terms. Re-joining will require Euro membership and a complete acceptance of EverCloserUnion.

    Now EverCloserUnion is what the EUNationalists want but its very much a minority view.
    Will English remain as an official language if we leave?
    The Irish would like to hope so.
    It is one of the funnier outcomes that the EU may/will drop English as an official language.
  • Options

    The argument for why we must press on with Brexit has a lot in common with Erdogan's argument for reinstating the death penalty. We must tear up a settled part of our constitution just because the people demand it, no matter what the cost to our domestic institutions, national unity, economic future or international standing.

    The EU has been tearing up settled parts of out constitution for over 40 years.

    But that was a good thing in the eyes of EUNationalists.

  • Options
    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238

    Pulpstar said:

    Osborne, Blair & Jim Murphy !

    Lol

    Only need McTernan to ensure absolute, disastrous failure.
    You forgot Nick Clegg.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,749
    CD13 said:

    I don't worry about Brexit anymore. It will be soon be a done deal, one way or the other.

    As done as the Trump election. Interesting phrase going round now ... 'Trump's opponents took him literally and not seriously. Trump's supporters took him seriously and not literally.' That neatly sums up the Trump enigma for me.

    I've doubts about the EU wanting a hard Brexit. The heads of Government may disagree. Cutting off nose to spite face may not go well with their voters.

    In the narrow sense of stopping our membership of the EU it will be a done deal. The EU will never impose more on Britain than when we leave however, as we look to co-opt it, undermine it and ignore it. In that sense the deal is less done than ever.
  • Options
    .
    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Is Tony going to stand as a Labour MP? Or start his own political Party?

    Hard to see how much "influence" he can have outside that unfashionable dump called Parliament that so wasted his time...

    Morning GIN, all well with you
    Yes Malc I'm very well thank you.

    You OK? :)
    Hale and Hearty GIN, though not much fun on here recently , just lots of bollox and brexit doom and gloom.
    Meanwhile we are going to spash out £500M fitting new boiler and rewiring teh richest woman in the world's house and yet another borefest from Jakie Rowling. Still smiling despite it though.
    .

    Scotland is costing billions per-annum in arrogance and yet a net-contributor tax-payer is not allowed to claim business-expenses? England pays so England says: Dem iz da rools!
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Pulpstar said:

    Hmm, UKIP seems to have given up on Scotland.

    The vacancy for an angry nativist movement there having already been filled.
  • Options
    Mr. Rook, Romescope sounds cooler :p
  • Options
    Any thoughts on a Le Pen vs Melenchon run-off?

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/800301758564171776
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,467

    A Lib Dem view on what is ahead, from an ex SPAD.
    http://nicktyrone.com/one-move-ends-eu/
    " I am becoming increasingly convinced that Marine Le Pen will win the French presidential election in April of next year......
    I fear for the future of the EU. As in, I really give it less than a 50% chance of surviving another decade."

    Could you please send some of us a list of those who are prepared to back Le Pen with money (houses, cars also acceptable)? I feel a betting opportunity is appearing....
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    A Lib Dem view on what is ahead, from an ex SPAD.
    http://nicktyrone.com/one-move-ends-eu/
    " I am becoming increasingly convinced that Marine Le Pen will win the French presidential election in April of next year......
    I fear for the future of the EU. As in, I really give it less than a 50% chance of surviving another decade."

    If Marine le Pen does win (still a big if, despite everything else that has happened) then it probably won't survive 2017.

    The more the EU is beset by problems, the more scared it gets, and the more intransigent and inflexible it becomes. Inability to agree a compromise even with somebody advancing such a modest platform as Cameron led directly to Brexit. Hard to imagine that the whole construct won't burst into flames the second Le Pen wins, should that come to pass.

    The EU resembles more and more a frightened little circle of wagons. It seems to be determined to treat Russia, China, the United States and the United Kingdom as various kinds of enemies all at once. That isn't sustainable. Something has to give.
  • Options
    Does Italy have postal voting ?
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Mr. Rook, Romescope sounds cooler :p

    Renzivision?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,935

    Any thoughts on a Le Pen vs Melenchon run-off?

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/800301758564171776

    Has Juppe lost my money already ?
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Any thoughts on a Le Pen vs Melenchon run-off?

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/800301758564171776

    Crying and screaming in Brussels and Frankfurt, one would presume?
  • Options
    Mr. Rook, Renzivision sounds like a good name for if he loses but stays on.

    Also, I agree Le Pen won't win. The voting system is perfect for her opponents.
  • Options

    The EU resembles more and more a frightened little circle of wagons. It seems to be determined to treat Russia, China, the United States and the United Kingdom as various kinds of enemies all at once. That isn't sustainable. Something has to give.

    If France elects Le Pen I think a smaller, tighter circle of wagons of the remaining liberal states would be the right response. And they'd be right to be frightened, as should everyone else.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,087

    Hard to imagine that the whole construct won't burst into flames the second Le Pen wins, should that come to pass.

    By what mechanism?
  • Options
    Off-topic:

    Sad that the death-toll in the Uttar-Pradesh train-crash has hit 100. One lost life is too many.

    I would like to ask a question though: India's railways are a legacy - and we may have lost the jewel but also the liability - but how does a nation like India solve this problem? We struggle with high-quality, small rail-systems within Network-Rail and would probably struggle to commit if imperiously we were responsible for India?

    How should we square this circle? Shoulb India divest some legacy routes?

    :RIP:
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    That's a lot of people

    http://www.breitbart.com/big-journalism/2016/11/19/breitbart-news-hits-300-million-pageviews-45-million-uniques-last-31-days/

    "Conservative media giant Breitbart News generated 300 million pageviews and 45 million unique visitors over the last 31 days.

    “Breitbart News’ highly engaged community of readers seek first-in-class conservative news,” said Breitbart CEO and President Larry Solov. “And that’s exactly what we’ve given them.”

    With plans for expansion to new international markets underway, Breitbart’s strength across social media continues to swell.

    According to social media analytics leader NewsWhip, Breitbart maintains the number one political Twitter and Facebook pages in the world...
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    The EU resembles more and more a frightened little circle of wagons. It seems to be determined to treat Russia, China, the United States and the United Kingdom as various kinds of enemies all at once. That isn't sustainable. Something has to give.

    If France elects Le Pen I think a smaller, tighter circle of wagons of the remaining liberal states would be the right response. And they'd be right to be frightened, as should everyone else.
    Why on earth should we be frightened? What is she going to do, invade?
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Is Tony going to stand as a Labour MP? Or start his own political Party?

    Hard to see how much "influence" he can have outside that unfashionable dump called Parliament that so wasted his time...

    Morning GIN, all well with you
    Yes Malc I'm very well thank you.

    You OK? :)
    Hale and Hearty GIN, though not much fun on here recently , just lots of bollox and brexit doom and gloom.
    Meanwhile we are going to spash out £500M fitting new boiler and rewiring teh richest woman in the world's house and yet another borefest from Jakie Rowling. Still smiling despite it though.
    You know there are at least 3 richer women (off the top of my head) living in the UK alone? Let alone the rest of the world.
  • Options
    PlatoSaid said:

    That's a lot of people

    http://www.breitbart.com/big-journalism/2016/11/19/breitbart-news-hits-300-million-pageviews-45-million-uniques-last-31-days/

    "Conservative media giant Breitbart News generated 300 million pageviews and 45 million unique visitors over the last 31 days.

    “Breitbart News’ highly engaged community of readers seek first-in-class conservative news,” said Breitbart CEO and President Larry Solov. “And that’s exactly what we’ve given them.”

    With plans for expansion to new international markets underway, Breitbart’s strength across social media continues to swell.

    According to social media analytics leader NewsWhip, Breitbart maintains the number one political Twitter and Facebook pages in the world...

    Not really those numbers and commentary don't add up. If its 45 million unique visitors then they're averaging just over 6 pageviews in a month each - hardly "highly engaged".

    Or its a far smaller number of highly engaged people visiting from different devices/IP addresses etc so they are engaged but there's a lot less actual visitors.

    Or its a very large number of visitors who've visited once or twice only ever, probably because someone else like you shared a link on a site or medium they actually do visit.
  • Options
    Blue_rog said:

    Blair + Osbo, leaders of the new Unity Party. Unity of the country and with Europe :lol:

    Asbo and Osbo?
  • Options

    The EU resembles more and more a frightened little circle of wagons. It seems to be determined to treat Russia, China, the United States and the United Kingdom as various kinds of enemies all at once. That isn't sustainable. Something has to give.

    If France elects Le Pen I think a smaller, tighter circle of wagons of the remaining liberal states would be the right response. And they'd be right to be frightened, as should everyone else.
    Why on earth should we be frightened? What is she going to do, invade?
    Well, it's happened before, and unlike 1066, this time France has an aircraft carrier with actual planes on it.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,989
    edited November 2016
    Mr. L, 1066 was the Normans. Early 13th century was the last invasion (Napoleon did invade Ireland).

    Edited extra bit: by the French*, I meant.

    [On second thoughts, unsure if Napoleon invaded or just funded/supplied rebels].
  • Options

    The EU resembles more and more a frightened little circle of wagons. It seems to be determined to treat Russia, China, the United States and the United Kingdom as various kinds of enemies all at once. That isn't sustainable. Something has to give.

    If France elects Le Pen I think a smaller, tighter circle of wagons of the remaining liberal states would be the right response. And they'd be right to be frightened, as should everyone else.
    Why on earth should we be frightened? What is she going to do, invade?
    Well, France has nuclear weapons so she could certainly start a nuclear war with somebody. That somebody probably wouldn't be Britain or an EU member, but it wouldn't be good.

    But the wider picture is that we are / would be seeing a repeat of the 1930s: Nationalistic governments, international institutions unraveling, lack of respect for human rights. Where that ends is with authoritarians crushing domestic dissent then going to war with each other.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,828

    That being said, the longer Theresa May prevaricates on this the longer the forces of resistance to Brexit have to mobilise.

    Well she's said she's going to trigger A50 by March and I trust her on that.

    If she can't do it by her March deadline because for Forces Of Remain are stopping her then I hope/expect a general election to be called to let the voters sort it out.
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    Mr. L, 1066 was the Normans. Early 13th century was the last invasion (Napoleon did invade Ireland).

    Edited extra bit: by the French*, I meant.

    [On second thoughts, unsure if Napoleon invaded or just funded/supplied rebels].

    Think some French regulars were part of the forces that invaded Fishguard for two days in Feb 1797.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    This is an excellent read, the most sensible commentary and it comes from a blinking tabloid

    http://nypost.com/2016/11/20/keep-crying-wolf-about-trump-and-no-one-will-listen-to-a-real-crisis/
  • Options
    Mr. Owl, I didn't know Wales got invaded (assuming I'm remembering the right place).
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,028
    edited November 2016
    murali_s said:

    Blair calling Corbyn a nutter - I don't know whether to laugh or cry!

    Whatever you think of Corbyn he does come across a genuine man, unlike Blair of course!

    Let's call him for what he his, Blair is utter scum. And he's a war criminal to boot. How he and senior British commanders remain free over their illegal action in Iraq, God only knows! Classic example of Western double standards and hypocrisy!

    Yes and they have the brass neck to pontificate about Putin who is like a teddy bear compared to those warmongers.
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    Any thoughts on a Le Pen vs Melenchon run-off?

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/800301758564171776

    Well feisty.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,028
    Charles said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Is Tony going to stand as a Labour MP? Or start his own political Party?

    Hard to see how much "influence" he can have outside that unfashionable dump called Parliament that so wasted his time...

    Morning GIN, all well with you
    Yes Malc I'm very well thank you.

    You OK? :)
    Hale and Hearty GIN, though not much fun on here recently , just lots of bollox and brexit doom and gloom.
    Meanwhile we are going to spash out £500M fitting new boiler and rewiring teh richest woman in the world's house and yet another borefest from Jakie Rowling. Still smiling despite it though.
    You know there are at least 3 richer women (off the top of my head) living in the UK alone? Let alone the rest of the world.
    LOL, the irony of the obscenely rich
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,467
    malcolmg said:

    murali_s said:

    Blair calling Corbyn a nutter - I don't know whether to laugh or cry!

    Whatever you think of Corbyn he does come across a genuine man, unlike Blair of course!

    Let's call him for what he his, Blair is utter scum. And he's a war criminal to boot. How he and senior British commanders remain free over their illegal action in Iraq, God only knows! Classic example of Western double standards and hypocrisy!

    Yesand they have the brass neck to pontificate about Putin who is like a teddy bear compared to those warmongers.
    I respectfully suggest you read up on what happened in Chechnya - be careful about googling for images. The Russian forces were approaching Japanese WWII behaviour as some points...
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,087

    The EU resembles more and more a frightened little circle of wagons. It seems to be determined to treat Russia, China, the United States and the United Kingdom as various kinds of enemies all at once. That isn't sustainable. Something has to give.

    If France elects Le Pen I think a smaller, tighter circle of wagons of the remaining liberal states would be the right response. And they'd be right to be frightened, as should everyone else.
    Why on earth should we be frightened? What is she going to do, invade?
    What would she do about Molenbeek in the event of a repeat of Bataclan? Invasion isn't that far fetched.
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    Mr. Owl, I didn't know Wales got invaded (assuming I'm remembering the right place).

    Fishguard is in Pembrokeshire so yes Wales was invaded - Feb 22-24.1797.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,028

    .

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Is Tony going to stand as a Labour MP? Or start his own political Party?

    Hard to see how much "influence" he can have outside that unfashionable dump called Parliament that so wasted his time...

    Morning GIN, all well with you
    Yes Malc I'm very well thank you.

    You OK? :)
    Hale and Hearty GIN, though not much fun on here recently , just lots of bollox and brexit doom and gloom.
    Meanwhile we are going to spash out £500M fitting new boiler and rewiring teh richest woman in the world's house and yet another borefest from Jakie Rowling. Still smiling despite it though.
    .

    Scotland is costing billions per-annum in arrogance and yet a net-contributor tax-payer is not allowed to claim business-expenses? England pays so England says: Dem iz da rools!
    Cuckoo Cuckoo
  • Options
    Mr. Owl, ah, that'll be William Marshal's patch. Ish. Give or take 500 years.

    [I have read small amounts of modern history].

    Anyway, I must be off.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,467

    The EU resembles more and more a frightened little circle of wagons. It seems to be determined to treat Russia, China, the United States and the United Kingdom as various kinds of enemies all at once. That isn't sustainable. Something has to give.

    If France elects Le Pen I think a smaller, tighter circle of wagons of the remaining liberal states would be the right response. And they'd be right to be frightened, as should everyone else.
    The alternative would be to figure out a way to run a country that doesn't mean writing off large sections of the population. But that is impossible apparently.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    FPT
    Sandpit said:
    'Mrs May must be seriously thinking about engineering an election now, a landslide awaits if she goes for it. '

    A bit of a Non Sequitur there.
    The polls this week have been pretty good for the Tories ranging from a 14% lead from YouGov to the 9% from Mori. Whilst the latter showed a big drop from the 18% recorded a month earlier , it rather suggests that the 47% recorded in October for the Tories was a big outlier - as many of us suspected. Nevertheless contrary to what many might expect, today's 12% lead would not actually produce a 'landslide'. Based on the May 2015 results it would lead to 24 Tory gains from Labour - effectively a majority of 60 which would be a good win comparable to what Blair managed in 2005 but well short of 1987 & 1983.Moreover, one of those Tory gains should be Tooting in Wandsworth, but given the June by election and more recent by election results there I am doubtful that that would happen in reality.
  • Options
    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238

    Does Italy have postal voting ?
    Italian citizens who live abroad are given a postal vote IIRC
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    PlatoSaid said:

    This is an excellent read, the most sensible commentary and it comes from a blinking tabloid

    http://nypost.com/2016/11/20/keep-crying-wolf-about-trump-and-no-one-will-listen-to-a-real-crisis/

    That is a good article, the OTT reporting is getting quite out of hand, and the point about collusion is well made. I would be interesting to know if similar things happen here.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,467

    Blue_rog said:

    Blair + Osbo, leaders of the new Unity Party. Unity of the country and with Europe :lol:

    Asbo and Osbo?
    The Unity Party? Given the original Third Way was the alternative to Capitalism and Communism.... One Country, One People, One Europe - writes itself really.... some art deco designs.... How much for searchlight hire?
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Fishing said:

    Does anybody else think that major political figures should be euthanised, rather than retired? For their own good if nothing else.

    Other than perhaps Jimmy Carter, it is hard to think of any whose post-office machinations have improved their reputations, rather than further shredding them.

    Herbert Hoover did pretty well after leaving office.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,028

    malcolmg said:

    murali_s said:

    Blair calling Corbyn a nutter - I don't know whether to laugh or cry!

    Whatever you think of Corbyn he does come across a genuine man, unlike Blair of course!

    Let's call him for what he his, Blair is utter scum. And he's a war criminal to boot. How he and senior British commanders remain free over their illegal action in Iraq, God only knows! Classic example of Western double standards and hypocrisy!

    Yesand they have the brass neck to pontificate about Putin who is like a teddy bear compared to those warmongers.
    I respectfully suggest you read up on what happened in Chechnya - be careful about googling for images. The Russian forces were approaching Japanese WWII behaviour as some points...
    It does not distract from the two faced hypocrisy that emanates from the UK. Look at Yemen , our bombs are doing as good a job as any Japanese / Russian atrocity, no need to even mention Iraq and Afghanistan even.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Nothing wrong with Tony Blair, he was a great PM who understood the British people like no other.

    Sure he made mistakes, like not sacking brown in 2001, but otherwise I don't get the hate.

    I am sure there are some people in Germany who say the same thing about the Fuhrer!
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    malcolmg said:

    murali_s said:

    Blair calling Corbyn a nutter - I don't know whether to laugh or cry!

    Whatever you think of Corbyn he does come across a genuine man, unlike Blair of course!

    Let's call him for what he his, Blair is utter scum. And he's a war criminal to boot. How he and senior British commanders remain free over their illegal action in Iraq, God only knows! Classic example of Western double standards and hypocrisy!

    Yesand they have the brass neck to pontificate about Putin who is like a teddy bear compared to those warmongers.
    I respectfully suggest you read up on what happened in Chechnya - be careful about googling for images. The Russian forces were approaching Japanese WWII behaviour as some points...
    I am not sure that comparison to the Japanese is true.

    www.unit731.org
  • Options
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    murali_s said:

    Blair calling Corbyn a nutter - I don't know whether to laugh or cry!

    Whatever you think of Corbyn he does come across a genuine man, unlike Blair of course!

    Let's call him for what he his, Blair is utter scum. And he's a war criminal to boot. How he and senior British commanders remain free over their illegal action in Iraq, God only knows! Classic example of Western double standards and hypocrisy!

    Yesand they have the brass neck to pontificate about Putin who is like a teddy bear compared to those warmongers.
    I respectfully suggest you read up on what happened in Chechnya - be careful about googling for images. The Russian forces were approaching Japanese WWII behaviour as some points...
    It does not distract from the two faced hypocrisy that emanates from the UK. Look at Yemen , our bombs are doing as good a job as any Japanese / Russian atrocity, no need to even mention Iraq and Afghanistan even.
    It does make claims like "Putin who is like a teddy bear compared to those warmongers" absolute bollocks though.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,467
    GeoffM said:

    malcolmg said:

    murali_s said:

    Blair calling Corbyn a nutter - I don't know whether to laugh or cry!

    Whatever you think of Corbyn he does come across a genuine man, unlike Blair of course!

    Let's call him for what he his, Blair is utter scum. And he's a war criminal to boot. How he and senior British commanders remain free over their illegal action in Iraq, God only knows! Classic example of Western double standards and hypocrisy!

    Yesand they have the brass neck to pontificate about Putin who is like a teddy bear compared to those warmongers.
    I respectfully suggest you read up on what happened in Chechnya - be careful about googling for images. The Russian forces were approaching Japanese WWII behaviour as some points...
    I am not sure that comparison to the Japanese is true.

    www.unit731.org
    I am referring to the killing of civilians for... well, LOLs, really.
  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited November 2016
    A fascinating study by You Gov of political views within the political parties. See

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/11/16/trump-brexit-front-national-afd-branches-same-tree/

    Uses the two axes - Authoritarian/Non authoritarian and Right/Left views to segment electors.

    Shows the proportion of people who are Liberal Left, Liberal Centre Right, Authoritarian Populism Centre and Authoritarian Populism Right and how many of each are in the traditional political parties.

    Note:
    1. To identify the Authoritarian Populist groupings Exploratory Factor Analysis was used on a series of variables associated with the theoretical foundations of Authoritarian Populism (anti-human rights, anti-EU, anti-immigrant, pro-strong foreign policy) with an alpha scale check that gives you a reliability coefficient.

    2. Inevitably, the interpretation and grouping of results of this type is as much an art as a science, so the results involve the analyst’s own judgement.

  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    malcolmg said:

    Charles said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Is Tony going to stand as a Labour MP? Or start his own political Party?

    Hard to see how much "influence" he can have outside that unfashionable dump called Parliament that so wasted his time...

    Morning GIN, all well with you
    Yes Malc I'm very well thank you.

    You OK? :)
    Hale and Hearty GIN, though not much fun on here recently , just lots of bollox and brexit doom and gloom.
    Meanwhile we are going to spash out £500M fitting new boiler and rewiring teh richest woman in the world's house and yet another borefest from Jakie Rowling. Still smiling despite it though.
    You know there are at least 3 richer women (off the top of my head) living in the UK alone? Let alone the rest of the world.
    LOL, the irony of the obscenely rich
    I'm well off but far from rich... main asset is my house and that is heavily mortgaged...
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,467

    The EU resembles more and more a frightened little circle of wagons. It seems to be determined to treat Russia, China, the United States and the United Kingdom as various kinds of enemies all at once. That isn't sustainable. Something has to give.

    If France elects Le Pen I think a smaller, tighter circle of wagons of the remaining liberal states would be the right response. And they'd be right to be frightened, as should everyone else.
    Why on earth should we be frightened? What is she going to do, invade?
    What would she do about Molenbeek in the event of a repeat of Bataclan? Invasion isn't that far fetched.
    Yes, that would be the potential for real ugliness -

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_massacre_of_1961.
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    Any thoughts on a Le Pen vs Melenchon run-off?

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/800301758564171776

    Has Juppe lost my money already ?
    Not yet.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,028

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    murali_s said:

    Blair calling Corbyn a nutter - I don't know whether to laugh or cry!

    Whatever you think of Corbyn he does come across a genuine man, unlike Blair of course!

    Let's call him for what he his, Blair is utter scum. And he's a war criminal to boot. How he and senior British commanders remain free over their illegal action in Iraq, God only knows! Classic example of Western double standards and hypocrisy!

    Yesand they have the brass neck to pontificate about Putin who is like a teddy bear compared to those warmongers.
    I respectfully suggest you read up on what happened in Chechnya - be careful about googling for images. The Russian forces were approaching Japanese WWII behaviour as some points...
    It does not distract from the two faced hypocrisy that emanates from the UK. Look at Yemen , our bombs are doing as good a job as any Japanese / Russian atrocity, no need to even mention Iraq and Afghanistan even.
    It does make claims like "Putin who is like a teddy bear compared to those warmongers" absolute bollocks though.
    It does not change the truth that many of our sainted leaders are every bit as bad as Putin, though we live in a dreamland in this country with halfwits believing we are pure and on the side of right. Delusion.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,028
    edited November 2016
    Charles said:

    malcolmg said:

    Charles said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Is Tony going to stand as a Labour MP? Or start his own political Party?

    Hard to see how much "influence" he can have outside that unfashionable dump called Parliament that so wasted his time...

    Morning GIN, all well with you
    Yes Malc I'm very well thank you.

    You OK? :)
    Hale and Hearty GIN, though not much fun on here recently , just lots of bollox and brexit doom and gloom.
    Meanwhile we are going to spash out £500M fitting new boiler and rewiring teh richest woman in the world's house and yet another borefest from Jakie Rowling. Still smiling despite it though.
    You know there are at least 3 richer women (off the top of my head) living in the UK alone? Let alone the rest of the world.
    LOL, the irony of the obscenely rich
    I'm well off but far from rich... main asset is my house and that is heavily mortgaged...
    I doubt you have ever had to concern yourself with lack of cash Charles or access to it.

    PS; Royal family , who despite having huge handouts every year and hundreds of millions in the bank , would rather milk the public poor rather than even chip in, it will take public humiliation for them to even consider getting over their untrammeled greed.
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    The EU resembles more and more a frightened little circle of wagons. It seems to be determined to treat Russia, China, the United States and the United Kingdom as various kinds of enemies all at once. That isn't sustainable. Something has to give.

    If France elects Le Pen I think a smaller, tighter circle of wagons of the remaining liberal states would be the right response. And they'd be right to be frightened, as should everyone else.
    What would be left? Greece is a basket case, Italy going the same way, the Visegrad bloc in open revolt against Brussels' diktat and multiculturalism. Nobody should discount the far left leading a coalition in Spain should the centre-right minority administration falter. None of the Nordic states are signed up for the Euro, other than Finland which is distant from the core, and the hard right is strong in Sweden and Denmark.

    Your posited liberal bloc presently appears to consist of Germany, Austria and the Low Countries - and Austria, the Netherlands and Flanders all have thriving hard right nationalist movements. It doesn't amount to much.

    This all comes, ultimately, from the fact that European integration has grown too deep, too all-pervasive, and it has become sclerotic in the process. The EU is stuck halfway between a commonwealth of sovereign states (which is where it should've stayed) and a federation (which it seems unwilling and unable to become.) That makes it both acutely vulnerable and increasingly paranoid. It views almost every outside development as a threat to its own cohesion. And the more it reacts against the rest of the world, the more vulnerable and the more paranoid it becomes.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,914
    PlatoSaid said:

    This is an excellent read, the most sensible commentary and it comes from a blinking tabloid

    http://nypost.com/2016/11/20/keep-crying-wolf-about-trump-and-no-one-will-listen-to-a-real-crisis/

    That's very good, and the author gets it spot on.

    The UK media are of course trying the same trick with all the anti-Brexit stories in the absence of anything from the govt, who are still in the planning stage.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,185
    edited November 2016
    Blue_rog said:

    O/T. Anyone else getting strange format for comments?

    Nope, still loads of right wing guff here.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,028
    Sandpit said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    This is an excellent read, the most sensible commentary and it comes from a blinking tabloid

    http://nypost.com/2016/11/20/keep-crying-wolf-about-trump-and-no-one-will-listen-to-a-real-crisis/

    That's very good, and the author gets it spot on.

    The UK media are of course trying the same trick with all the anti-Brexit stories in the absence of anything from the govt, who are still in the planning stage.
    LOL, what a laugh that plan will be.
  • Options
    PB readers will no doubt be delighted to know that I have just written the world's greatest AV thread (in my head and in my opinion).

    Coming soon ...
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    Hmm, UKIP seems to have given up on Scotland.

    How could you tell?
  • Options
    timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    If the EU and its institutions are going to survive then Juncker and Verhofstadt have to be dumped. They can be pointed at by those who detest the commission and parliament as being unreasonable and vindictive.
    Safe pairs of hands need to be found.

    On another note do the LD true believers on this forum really think that becoming a "one trick pony" party is going to improve their credibility?
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    PlatoSaid said:

    That's a lot of people

    http://www.breitbart.com/big-journalism/2016/11/19/breitbart-news-hits-300-million-pageviews-45-million-uniques-last-31-days/

    "Conservative media giant Breitbart News generated 300 million pageviews and 45 million unique visitors over the last 31 days.

    “Breitbart News’ highly engaged community of readers seek first-in-class conservative news,” said Breitbart CEO and President Larry Solov. “And that’s exactly what we’ve given them.”

    With plans for expansion to new international markets underway, Breitbart’s strength across social media continues to swell.

    According to social media analytics leader NewsWhip, Breitbart maintains the number one political Twitter and Facebook pages in the world...

    Not really those numbers and commentary don't add up. If its 45 million unique visitors then they're averaging just over 6 pageviews in a month each - hardly "highly engaged".

    Or its a far smaller number of highly engaged people visiting from different devices/IP addresses etc so they are engaged but there's a lot less actual visitors.

    Or its a very large number of visitors who've visited once or twice only ever, probably because someone else like you shared a link on a site or medium they actually do visit.
    Using logic? Tsk. that doesn't matter in a post-truth world. Yes, Le Pen can easliy win all she has to do is make sure every word that comes out of her mouth is a lie and bingo the Presidency is hers, the voting system makes zero difference. How is a politician able to argue against people who are willing to sink any depths to win? They can't.
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Hard to imagine that the whole construct won't burst into flames the second Le Pen wins, should that come to pass.

    By what mechanism?
    Le Pen wants France out of the EU as well as the Euro, and will be endowed with considerable executive power. I seem to recall that she would hold a referendum on Frexit. I don't honestly know if she has the power to revert to the franc on her own authority, but if France were to abandon the Euro that would smash the single currency and might well be enough to finish off the EU on its own.

    Certainly, the idea of the EU without France is absurd.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,087
    timmo said:


    Safe pairs of hands need to be found.

    image

    ?
  • Options
    nunu said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    That's a lot of people

    http://www.breitbart.com/big-journalism/2016/11/19/breitbart-news-hits-300-million-pageviews-45-million-uniques-last-31-days/

    "Conservative media giant Breitbart News generated 300 million pageviews and 45 million unique visitors over the last 31 days.

    “Breitbart News’ highly engaged community of readers seek first-in-class conservative news,” said Breitbart CEO and President Larry Solov. “And that’s exactly what we’ve given them.”

    With plans for expansion to new international markets underway, Breitbart’s strength across social media continues to swell.

    According to social media analytics leader NewsWhip, Breitbart maintains the number one political Twitter and Facebook pages in the world...

    Not really those numbers and commentary don't add up. If its 45 million unique visitors then they're averaging just over 6 pageviews in a month each - hardly "highly engaged".

    Or its a far smaller number of highly engaged people visiting from different devices/IP addresses etc so they are engaged but there's a lot less actual visitors.

    Or its a very large number of visitors who've visited once or twice only ever, probably because someone else like you shared a link on a site or medium they actually do visit.
    Using logic? Tsk. that doesn't matter in a post-truth world. Yes, Le Pen can easliy win all she has to do is make sure every word that comes out of her mouth is a lie and bingo the Presidency is hers, the voting system makes zero difference. How is a politician able to argue against people who are willing to sink any depths to win? They can't.
    Well I'm not betting against her much. Interesting to see Fillon has come in on BF over last day or two.
  • Options
    timmo said:

    If the EU and its institutions are going to survive then Juncker and Verhofstadt have to be dumped. They can be pointed at by those who detest the commission and parliament as being unreasonable and vindictive.
    Safe pairs of hands need to be found.

    On another note do the LD true believers on this forum really think that becoming a "one trick pony" party is going to improve their credibility?

    While I accept that UKIP & credibility are strange bedfellows, they do seem to have had some success with their single trick.
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    murali_s said:

    Blair calling Corbyn a nutter - I don't know whether to laugh or cry!

    Whatever you think of Corbyn he does come across a genuine man, unlike Blair of course!

    Let's call him for what he his, Blair is utter scum. And he's a war criminal to boot. How he and senior British commanders remain free over their illegal action in Iraq, God only knows! Classic example of Western double standards and hypocrisy!

    Yesand they have the brass neck to pontificate about Putin who is like a teddy bear compared to those warmongers.
    I respectfully suggest you read up on what happened in Chechnya - be careful about googling for images. The Russian forces were approaching Japanese WWII behaviour as some points...
    It does not distract from the two faced hypocrisy that emanates from the UK. Look at Yemen , our bombs are doing as good a job as any Japanese / Russian atrocity, no need to even mention Iraq and Afghanistan even.
    It does make claims like "Putin who is like a teddy bear compared to those warmongers" absolute bollocks though.
    It does not change the truth that many of our sainted leaders are every bit as bad as Putin, though we live in a dreamland in this country with halfwits believing we are pure and on the side of right. Delusion.
    Good afternoon Mr.G. Crikey, you are in a gloomy mood today. That we are on the side of the angels is self-evident because we are British. The Blair administration made mistakes, as have others, but that does not change the eternal verities.

    Anyway just to cheer you up, the price of Grouse at my local off-licence is back up to £16
  • Options

    What would be left? Greece is a basket case, Italy going the same way, the Visegrad bloc in open revolt against Brussels' diktat and multiculturalism. Nobody should discount the far left leading a coalition in Spain should the centre-right minority administration falter. None of the Nordic states are signed up for the Euro, other than Finland which is distant from the core, and the hard right is strong in Sweden and Denmark.

    Your posited liberal bloc presently appears to consist of Germany, Austria and the Low Countries - and Austria, the Netherlands and Flanders all have thriving hard right nationalist movements. It doesn't amount to much.

    They have hard-right nationalist movements but they're minorities. Liberal Germany is exceedingly bad-ass. A far-left-led coalition would still be liberal, it would be fine. Euro membership isn't required. So the EU would still be a strong liberal bloc, and the need for a strong liberal bloc would be much more obvious.

    This all comes, ultimately, from the fact that European integration has grown too deep, too all-pervasive, and it has become sclerotic in the process. The EU is stuck halfway between a commonwealth of sovereign states (which is where it should've stayed) and a federation (which it seems unwilling and unable to become.) That makes it both acutely vulnerable and increasingly paranoid. It views almost every outside development as a threat to its own cohesion. And the more it reacts against the rest of the world, the more vulnerable and the more paranoid it becomes.

    I don't think that's it, since you're getting much the same thing in the US.
  • Options
    timmo said:

    If the EU and its institutions are going to survive then Juncker and Verhofstadt have to be dumped. They can be pointed at by those who detest the commission and parliament as being unreasonable and vindictive.
    Safe pairs of hands need to be found.

    On another note do the LD true believers on this forum really think that becoming a "one trick pony" party is going to improve their credibility?

    No.

    The EU under the influence of France tends towards the protectionist end of the spectrum.

    As free traders, Lib Dems should be active supporters of leaving the EU customs union and arranging free trade deals acroos the world, instead of supporting protectionist EU trade barriers against outsiders.

    So Lib Dem support for remain is undermining their own liberal free trade philosophy and foundation. No wonder people don't know what the Lib Dems stand for any more.
This discussion has been closed.