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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How it could go wrong for LAB in South Shields: 2. Ukip ch

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    carlcarl Posts: 750
    TGOHF said:

    tim said:

    @Taffys

    None of this governments welfare changes impact on the Philpott situation you do know that?

    Wrong tim - the 1% rise in child benefit decreases their income in real terms.

    Labour opposed that too.

    Oh well there you go. If only the below inflation rise in child benefit had come in earlier, maybe those kids would still be alive.

    Gawd. Put the Daily Mail down and step away from the keyboard.
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Carl

    How about in future limiting child benefit to the first two children?
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    To Carl:

    One thing that the Guardian highlighted that makes eminent sense is the difficulty of being on benefits and having full time training. You can't do both apparently which seems ludicrous to me.

    Surely one of the best ways of getting a job is re-skilling in a market where there are jobs.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    carl said:


    Of course, the Tories are interested in none of this.

    Except that they are bringing in a new single tapered system and they are trying to implement better childcare for working parents.

    This compared to Labour, who didn't do any of the things you wanted after being in power for 13 years.

    But let's not let facts get in the way.
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    Peter_2Peter_2 Posts: 146
    john_zims said:

    @Carl

    How about in future limiting child benefit to the first two children?

    It would be racist as it would target Labour's imported voters.
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    carl said:

    taffys said:

    BenM.

    Are you saying that we just have to live with a few philpotts so that genuinely poor families don;t suffer?

    Obviously. If we accept that there should be a safety net that makes it possible to exist, then there simply is no alternative I'm afraid. (Though we know benefit fraud is very rare, luckily)

    Of course there are loads of changes that could make the welfare system more efficient.

    -More tapered / generous benefits on return to work to ease the expensive (sometimes prohibitively so) transition back to work.

    -More work-incentivised childcare for parents.

    -Better incentivised training / education, especially for the young. Proper training too, not these rancid private sector target-driven cowboys like A4E.

    -'Supply side' efforts to make work pay, like a living wage, more meaningful apprenticeships.

    Of course, the Tories are interested in none of this.

    In fact, the Right have nothing intelligent to say on welfare at all. It's all cuts, Daily Mail headlines, scaremongering, myths, and more cuts. Dumb, nasty and counter-productive.
    If the Tories were serious about cutting the cost of benefits they would start with old age pensions because they are the biggest single cost to the DWP budget and quite a lot of them are paid to people who are not in financial need. Cutting benefits to the genuinely poor whilst protecting pensions for the rich might go down well in Tory circles but this it is not a serious attempt at reducing costs or creating a fairer benefit system.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    taffys said:

    If we accept that there should be a safety net that makes it possible to exist, then there simply is no alternative I'm afraid. (Though we know benefit fraud is very rare, luckily)

    OK that's fair enough, why doesn't Ed Milliband just come out and say he's not prepared to penalise the children of workless families for the sake of hitting a few philpotts. The system stays the same.

    Philpott wasn't a fraudster. He gained his benefits entirely legitimately,

    Which is why an overall cap makes sense as an approach.
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    On topic about UKIP's Eastleigh candidate. Here is what Farage's best friend and paid staff worker wrote about her.

    "I understand from the man who knows best we've been lumbered with an utter bitch who is Marta Mk 2."

    http://juniusonukip.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/ukips-annabelle-fuller-on-diane-james.html

    There are many unexploded PR disasters sitting around Farage. The n word mentioned recently is just one of many.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    Osborne had the option of limiting child benefit by number or age of children.
    He chose his "all in this together" grand gesture instead, with 70% marginal rates

    Still don't understand why he didn't just make it taxable income. Would have been far simpler (especially if taxable at source).
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    On topic about UKIP's Eastleigh candidate. Here is what Farage's best friend and paid staff worker wrote about her.

    "I understand from the man who knows best we've been lumbered with an utter bitch who is Marta Mk 2."

    http://juniusonukip.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/ukips-annabelle-fuller-on-diane-james.html

    There are many unexploded PR disasters sitting around Farage. The n word mentioned recently is just one of many.

    The n word one was made up by a man that does not get on with Farage and has utterly no other evidence. People are scraping the barrell to try to bring UKIP down.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    £6.87 to go !
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    UKIP respond to the EDL:

    "We are very clear that if you are an EDL supporter then you are not welcome in Ukip."

    http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/453603/20130404/edl-ukip-elections.htm

    So the smears by association won't work.
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @anothernick

    'If the Tories were serious about cutting the cost of benefits they would start with old age pensions because they are the biggest single cost to the DWP budget and quite a lot of them are paid to people who are not in financial need.'

    Any idea how much it would cost to pay back years of NI contributions to millions of people that would no longer be eligible for the state pension?
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    Peter_2Peter_2 Posts: 146
    tim said:

    Osborne had the option of limiting child benefit by number or age of children.
    He chose his "all in this together" grand gesture instead, with 70% marginal rates

    So had he done so, I sometimes suspect you would have been the first one screaming blue murder and screaming how the fairest method would be to cap it for higher tax earners...
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim - what did Labour do in 13 years or have planned for 2015 ?

    £0.

    A 1% rise is a cut - in real terms.

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    carlcarl Posts: 750
    Socrates said:

    carl said:


    Of course, the Tories are interested in none of this.

    Except that they are bringing in a new single tapered system and they are trying to implement better childcare for working parents.

    This compared to Labour, who didn't do any of the things you wanted after being in power for 13 years.

    But let's not let facts get in the way.
    Yes, IDS talked some sense on tapering when he was coming up with his Universal Credit. Unfortunately, that has long gone, and we're left with the same old Tory cuts.

    The childcare proposals are pathetic I'm afraid. We need parents on benefits to have far better access to childcare than they do.

    Labour didn't really do any of the things I talked about, but what's your point? The Tories are in Government now, and as I said, have little intelligent to add to the debate on welfare. Which is why we see Osborne wading into the stinking cesspit of Rightwing rhetoric surrounding Philpot.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    taffys said:

    Actually I think the Philpott type family (if such a thing exists) will be very difficult to stop the spending on.

    When the government rewards the workless for having ever more children, how can you withdraw that reward? Its the children who will suffer, not the parents.

    This is the eternal problem though its always 'think of the children'. It is this kind of emotive argument that is always put forward, but would Philpott's kids have really been worse off if he'd had less cash ?
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    carl said:

    Socrates said:

    carl said:


    Of course, the Tories are interested in none of this.

    The childcare proposals are pathetic I'm afraid. We need parents on benefits to have far better access to childcare than they do.

    Did you miss the free 15hrs a week of childcare for poorest 2yos that the coalition brought in ?

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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    The left wing of the Liberal Democrats may not like it, and James Kelly would certainly object, but what do the majority of us think about sterilisation as an alternative or addition to the benefits cap?

    Surely this is a low cost policy which is easy to implement and would provide a long term social benefit? It may even boost state revenues if the NHS could find a way to charge for the service.

    I can't help but think that that the deaths of the Philpott children would have been avoided had this policy been available to the benefits office early in the family's claiming history.

    Human Rights campaigners could be easily appeased by requiring a judicial order for involuntary participation in the scheme.

    What do other PBers think?
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    john_zims said:

    @anothernick

    'If the Tories were serious about cutting the cost of benefits they would start with old age pensions because they are the biggest single cost to the DWP budget and quite a lot of them are paid to people who are not in financial need.'

    Any idea how much it would cost to pay back years of NI contributions to millions of people that would no longer be eligible for the state pension?

    Is it proposed to repay NI contributions to those whose housing benefit or council tax benefit is being cut? So why should pensioners be different?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    john_zims said:

    @anothernick

    'If the Tories were serious about cutting the cost of benefits they would start with old age pensions because they are the biggest single cost to the DWP budget and quite a lot of them are paid to people who are not in financial need.'

    Any idea how much it would cost to pay back years of NI contributions to millions of people that would no longer be eligible for the state pension?

    Legal minefield. A better solution would be to push the pension up to 75 or 85 ASAP. People are living longer now and as Mick Pork's chart shows unemployment benefit is pretty cheap. Of course neither party will do this as it will 1) Make the unemployment stats look bad and 2) Lose the vital OAP vote, even though it could well make sense economically.

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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    AveryLP said:

    what do the majority of us think about sterilisation as an alternative or addition to the benefits cap?

    ...

    What do other PBers think?

    That you are trolling
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Avery - sterilisation is one option but there is the on going maintenance cost of the sterilised breeder to consider.

    I have a long standing idea to package up said persons in batches of sub prime labour units to be leased pro bono to the Saudis on a 50yr term.

    A one off transportation cost and ongoing savings.

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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited April 2013
    Pulpstar said:

    john_zims said:

    @anothernick

    'If the Tories were serious about cutting the cost of benefits they would start with old age pensions because they are the biggest single cost to the DWP budget and quite a lot of them are paid to people who are not in financial need.'

    Any idea how much it would cost to pay back years of NI contributions to millions of people that would no longer be eligible for the state pension?

    Legal minefield. A better solution would be to push the pension up to 75 or 85 ASAP. People are living longer now and as Mick Pork's chart shows unemployment benefit is pretty cheap. Of course neither party will do this as it will 1) Make the unemployment stats look bad and 2) Lose the vital OAP vote, even though it could well make sense economically.

    You could just move the state pension from starting at a certain age to starting after you have completed, say, 40 years of work. I'm sure caveats and exceptions would be needed, but I think it has the bones of a good policy idea.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Another part of the Blairite jigsaw discarded by wee Ed.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/04/what-happened-to-labours-view-that-we-should-be-tough-on-the-causes-of-crime/

    "What happened to Labour’s view that we should be tough on the causes of crime?"

    " I’m surprised that the Labour Party hasn’t made more of the housing dimension in this sad case; but, then again, that would necessitate a more intelligent/honest approach to unused capacity in social housing.

    Watching the welfare debate, it seems that the Labour party has forgotten all about Tony Blair – both his politics and his winning opportunism. It’s not stretching the imagination to think that the party might pay for its forgetfulness."
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Avery...very much in the style of 'A Modest Proposal for Preventing the Children of Poor People From Being a Burden to Their Parents or Country, and for Making Them Beneficial to the Public.....'

    Maybe that's what Labour need. A Dean Swift.
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    carl said:

    Socrates said:

    carl said:


    Of course, the Tories are interested in none of this.

    Except that they are bringing in a new single tapered system and they are trying to implement better childcare for working parents.

    This compared to Labour, who didn't do any of the things you wanted after being in power for 13 years.

    But let's not let facts get in the way.
    Yes, IDS talked some sense on tapering when he was coming up with his Universal Credit. Unfortunately, that has long gone, and we're left with the same old Tory cuts.

    The childcare proposals are pathetic I'm afraid. We need parents on benefits to have far better access to childcare than they do.

    Labour didn't really do any of the things I talked about, but what's your point? The Tories are in Government now, and as I said, have little intelligent to add to the debate on welfare. Which is why we see Osborne wading into the stinking cesspit of Rightwing rhetoric surrounding Philpot.
    You miss the basic fact that we are all responsible for the loss of those 6 children.

    Yes, Phillpot was a vile line of the specie. Yes he learnt and developed unsavoury habits. Yes he would have remained a foul possessive domineering bully without the benefit system.

    However, if we had a sensible benefit system, he would not have had payments that enabled him to attain his position of control, power and monetary comfort that probably led to his insatiable greed. In his world view he had his rights to his childrens 'income' (provided to the state), and his rights were regardless of any responsibility.

    Because he could do as he wished, he considered himself powerful, untouchable, and his actions that resulted in the loss of 6 lives indicate his unerring self belief. He had circumnavigated social workers, police, convictions and morality and was Lord of his own life. He believed in himself, as he was the centre, the focus and the purpose of his world.

    It is all of us that allowed this to happen. It is us that allowed him to have 17 children, and therefore it is us that are responsible for the death of 6 children.

    There is no way he is a typical benefits claimant, I don't think anyone with an iota of sense is suggesting that he is. He is an extreme example of how the system needs controls and rules that prevent the flagrant breech of the intention of the benefit system.

    There is no right wing sewer (except in your mind). There is a legitimate discussion to have to prevent the abuse of the system by anyone who is on the Phillpot wing of humanity. It is the social responsibility of us all to acknowledge that we were wrong to allow the system to run out of control and create the support mechanism that allowed a criminal like Phillpot to put himself in his self deluded position of power and economic comfort. It is the social responsibility of us all to see that the resources of the state are spent on those who need it most, not on those who want to evade responsibility.

    You and I are indeed responsible for failing those 6 children by our silence, apathy and willingness to accept the obvious wrongs that the system allowed to manifest in this case.

    Any politician worth his or her salt would stand up and say there are failings highlighted by this case and strive to change them.
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    @Pulpstar

    Never mind about legal minefields, Pulpy - Helium just floated home at Taunton! :-)
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    @Socrates

    A pension after forty years of work? You mean you want to lower the pension age? Maybe you made a typo, but for sure with life expectancy inexorably rising and private pension-saving collapsing the pension age has to be increased faster than currently planned. That will probably be electoral suicide for which ever government does it but it has to happen.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,311
    I posted this last night after everyone except tim had gone to bed.

    Per The Times Budget tables:

    Single person - Salary £10,000 - Net income £10,861

    Single person with 2 children - Salary £10,000 - Net income £20,568

    So having 2 children nets you an extra £9,707. Just £1,752 of that is Child Benefit. The remaining £7,955 is Child Tax Credits etc.

    The figures are absolutely breathtaking. Why on earth should someone with two children get an extra £9,707? That's £187 per week. Does it cost £187 per week to feed and clothe two children?

    The other aspect is that anyone with 2 children has almost no incentive at all to work unless they can earn a very high salary.

    Single person with 2 children - Salary £30,000 - Net income £25,968

    So earning an extra £20,000 gross salary (ie £30k instead of £10k) nets them an extra £5,400. So their tax rate from £10k to £30k is 73%.

    tim's answer was that my argument was reasonable except it would reduce the birth rate and therefore require more immigration.

    Surely we need clarity from politicians on this. Are we really just paying such generous benefits to keep the birth rate up?

    Or do politicians really think you should get an extra £187 per week for having 2 children?

    Does the public also think the right level of benefit for 2 children is £187 per week?

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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    A better solution would be to push the pension up to 75 or 85 ASAP.

    People who identify pensions as 'welfare' are looking at the problem the wrong way, and I reckon will pay a big political price.

    Pensions are paid to people who are overwhelmingly law abiding and tax paying. They have paid into the system all their lives on the clear understanding they would receive something in return at the end.

    Yes there is a political point to keeping pensioners happy. But there is surely a moral point too.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    MikeL - truly unbelievable figures. Sooner tax credits are phased out the better - but at those levels that will cause a lot of squealing. Will have to be frozen and inflationed out.

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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited April 2013
    @anothernick

    'Is it proposed to repay NI contributions to those whose housing benefit or council tax benefit is being cut? So why should pensioners be different?'

    They are still receiving the benefit and no government (not even under Ed) would promise,that whatever the circumstances, to increase benefits at a fixed rate or in-line with inflation.

    Pensioners have been forced by law to pay NI based on the promise that they will receive a state pension,if they have been paying under false pretenses then legally they would need to be repaid their contributions.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    "... we are all responsible for the loss of those 6 children ..."

    No! We are not all responsible, the person/people who set the fire are responsible, nobody else.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    what is the average age workers retire in UK?
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,311
    No tim - my figures are correct.

    Here's the link - at salary of £10,000 you get £9,125 for 2 children!!!

    http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/taxcredits/people-advise-others/entitlement-tables/work-and-child/work-no-childcosts.htm

    Shows how careful you have to be doesn't it!!!!!

    And you get even more if you have childcare costs!
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    Why not return to one of Beveridge's principles about idleness.

    "Insured persons should not feel the income for idleness...comes from a bottomless purse," he wrote.

    Let us make benefits contingent upon the degree to which people have contributed. This is done in some other EC countries.
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    Many thanks to PtP for the racing tips today.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,311
    tim - see link I posted at 6.01pm AGAIN.

    It is unarguable.

    Annual income £10k - Tax credits = £9,125

    http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/taxcredits/people-advise-others/entitlement-tables/work-and-child/work-no-childcosts.htm

    Now I suspect there are issues of definition - some of that £9,125 may be a different type of Tax credit.

    But bottom line is you get £9,125.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    taffys said:

    'A Modest Proposal...'

    Maybe that's what Labour need. A Dean Swift.

    I agree taffys. Mine was a modest proposal.

    Baby eating would be a step too far for the Tories.

    A twenty first century Dean Swift may help Ed fill his blank sheet of paper though.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,311
    tim - if you have an ounce of decency you would come on here right now and admit you were wrong.

    The figures I posted were the net income you get if you have salary £10,000 and 2 children.

    The link clearly shows you get tax credits of £9,125 and that does not include child benefit.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,311
    tim - this link says nothing about children being disabled.

    Here it is again.

    http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/taxcredits/people-advise-others/entitlement-tables/work-and-child/work-no-childcosts.htm

    I am still awaiting your apology.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    "compulsory jobs guarantee"

    Sounds like my sub prime labour units to Saudi idea !



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    Many thanks to PtP for the racing tips today.

    Thanks Hertsmere.

    Glad to see you got on.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,311
    tim - over the years you have been very quick to tell other people off when they've got something wrong.

    You lose all credibility if you don't have the guts to admit right now you've got this wrong.

    HMRC website:

    Income £10,000, two children, Tax credits = £9,125.

    http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/taxcredits/people-advise-others/entitlement-tables/work-and-child/work-no-childcosts.htm

    TOTALLY AND UTTERLY UNARGUABLE. OPEN THE LINK.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    Ed Balls' response to Toxic George

    "cynical ... desperate ... calculated ... shocking ... vile ... cynical ... tragically ... shocked and disgusted ... callous ... scourge ... nasty ... divisive ... demeans ... crimes."

    Ed Balls is Mick Pork and I claim my Scottish £5 pound note.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,311
    tim - that looks like an old site to me - it's in a completely different font etc.

    I'm sorry but the link I have provided is unarguable - it doesn't require a whole pile of form filling - everyone can see it with their own eyes - it says nothing about disabled children and it reconciles very closely to The Times tables (within £1,000).
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    MikeL said:

    tim - that looks like an old site to me - it's in a completely different font etc.

    That table is prefaced by the statement:
    'The amounts shown are the total amount of tax credits you could get for the whole of the current tax year.'
    It must therefore indicate maxima rather than entitlements. The Commissioners suggest that
    '[y]ou can check how much you might get by filling in an online calculator instead - it takes about 10 - 15 minutes to complete.'
    They then provide a link to the calculator that @tim has been using.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Sky News have just shown a lengthy interview with one of the brothers who tried to save the lives of the six children in Derby. The guy was clearly traumatised, though he was obviously very keen to get his views across on camera. It was incredibly uncomfortable viewing, and Sky News should do some soul-searching about whether it should ever have been broadcast.
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    glassfetglassfet Posts: 220
    Osborne forces Ed Balls to come out on the side of Philpott. Amazing
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    LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    edited April 2013
    MikeL said:

    tim - that looks like an old site to me - it's in a completely different font etc.

    I'm sorry but the link I have provided is unarguable - it doesn't require a whole pile of form filling - everyone can see it with their own eyes - it says nothing about disabled children and it reconciles very closely to The Times tables (within £1,000).

    I used the entitledto website and got figures of £3218 working tax credit plus £5993 child tax credit - £9212 annually for a salary of £10k, couple with 2 non-disabled children. Plus child benefit of £1752.

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,004
    Mr. Antifrank, I haven't seen that particular interview, but I often feel that way about TV interviews (on both Sky and the BBC). The journalists seem quite happy to thrust a microphone and camera into the face of traumatised people, even young teenagers. I don't like it. It's intrusive, voyeuristic and unnecessary.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    glassfet said:

    Osborne forces Ed Balls to come out on the side of Philpott. Amazing

    GO is not allowed to talk about anything ever.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,311
    Well tim I've gone in and I get £50.02 - same as you!

    But that appears to be the amount for 2 DAYS! - It says it is for 04/04/2013 until 05/04/2013.

    Must confess it looks odd but that is what it says!

    50.02 *7/2 = £175.07 per week = £9,104.

    Are you sure it's £50.02 per week? It doesn't say so!!!!
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Sion Simon has been shortlisted to be one of the MEP candidates for West Midlands. A woman must be at the top in WM but Labour should aim at 2 seats in the region.

    The NEC will retify Euro Labour shortlists next week. So expect to have all full names at some point.
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    LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    edited April 2013
    The same figures apply for a single parent with two children - i.e. total tax credits of £9212 based on a full-time salary of £10k.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited April 2013

    @Socrates

    A pension after forty years of work? You mean you want to lower the pension age? Maybe you made a typo, but for sure with life expectancy inexorably rising and private pension-saving collapsing the pension age has to be increased faster than currently planned. That will probably be electoral suicide for which ever government does it but it has to happen.

    Was indeed a typo: I actually meant to type 50. The number doesn't matter so much as the principle. I think it's pretty tough that manual workers who don't go to university have to work more years to be entitled to a pension relative to graduates like myself.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,311
    Many thanks Lucy.

    Well tim, what do you have to say?

    Whilst I agree my original link implies maximum amounts it doesn't say anything about disabled children and I would be amazed if HMRC were publishing what would be an incredibly misleading table.

    Lucy is getting figures in line with the original table.

    Looks like the figures are indeed of an amount even you thought was unbelievable.
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    If my least favourite Tory in the cabinet, Osborne, could win the voters support over this welfare issue he will have enacted a remarkable comeback. If I was considering a bet I would usually bet against him. But this time he may have actually made the right call. Shock. If not then he will truly be toxic (as tim and his scottish mates label him).

    We could be in one of those sea change moments where we either see the polls shift or a new CotE.
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    LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    edited April 2013
    MikeL said:

    Well tim I've gone in and I get £50.02 - same as you!

    But that appears to be the amount for 2 DAYS! - It says it is for 04/04/2013 until 05/04/2013.

    Must confess it looks odd but that is what it says!

    50.02 *7/2 = £175.07 per week = £9,104.

    Are you sure it's £50.02 per week? It doesn't say so!!!!

    I did this too and got just the same result, which struck me as being incorrect based on what I understand some of my acquaintances receive. But look more closely at the paragraph headed "Results" on the intro page:

    "This calculator will give you an idea of how much you could get, based on the information you give.
    The figure you see will be the total amount you could get between today's date and 5 April 2013."

    It seems the £9200/year figure is the correct one.


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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,311
    tim - you can get over £17k without disabled children actually - see below - this includes childcare.

    http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/taxcredits/people-advise-others/entitlement-tables/work-and-child/work-pay-childcare.htm

    Sorry tim - you've tried to brush this off and I don't think the vast majority of people will believe you.

    Lucy gets the figures I posted and the HMRC table says nothing about disabled children.

    The vast majority of children are not disabled and it is not credible that the main table on HMRC website would assume disabled children.

    The onus is on you to explain the HMRC figures. Lucy has confirmed them - for non-disabled children.
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    Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    Popcorn at ready as tim furiously jabs away at HMRC website...
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited April 2013
    MikeL and Lucy thanks for your work, a fascinating insight into the massive legacy of tax credits that Brown has loaded on tax payers.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,966
    MikeL said:

    tim - you can get over £17k without disabled children actually - see below - this includes childcare.

    http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/taxcredits/people-advise-others/entitlement-tables/work-and-child/work-pay-childcare.htm

    Sorry tim - you've tried to brush this off and I don't think the vast majority of people will believe you.

    Lucy gets the figures I posted and the HMRC table says nothing about disabled children.

    The vast majority of children are not disabled and it is not credible that the main table on HMRC website would assume disabled children.

    The onus is on you to explain the HMRC figures. Lucy has confirmed them - for non-disabled children.

    The figures relate to the maximum amount that can be received. They do not say how many people will get the maximum or close to it.

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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,311
    Thanks Lucy (at 6.57pm)!

    Based on EXACTLY what the calculator says it is £50.02 for TWO DAYS.

    So I (and much more importantly HMRC) were right all along.

    I hope your posts were in good faith tim (and I'll give you the benefit of the doubt) but not surprisingly we have confirmation that the original HMRC link I posted was correct.

    Just to remind everyone:

    Annual income £10,000, 2 children, Tax credits = £9,125.

    Which leaves us pondering- if even tim finds the amounts unbelievable then how on earth can they be justified?
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    RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Ed Balls seems quite exceptionally rattled.

    Why would that be?
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,311
    Just to sum up in case anyone is still wondering we have 3 separate sources all giving the same answer:

    1) Main HMRC website table
    2) HMRC calculator
    3) The Times Budget tax / benefit tables

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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,966

    Ed Balls seems quite exceptionally rattled.

    Why would that be?

    Because George Osborne has used the deaths of six children to play politics.

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    LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    Out of interest, I looked up the figures for a imaginary single parent of six working full-time for £10k. Total tax credits would come to £20103, plus child benefit of £4539 - i.e. an extra £25k net.
    Then there would be council tax benefit and possibly housing benefit and childcare allowance - I didn't bother including claims for these elements.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,904

    Ed Balls seems quite exceptionally rattled.

    Why would that be?

    George Osborne is in the gutter.

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    perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    We often see tables showing household incomes. I would like to see tables showing household incomes net of income tax & and NI but adding in all benefits including CB, HB, tax credits etc. My guess is that it would show that "poverty" hardly exists in this country.
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    RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited April 2013


    Because George Osborne has used the deaths of six children to play politics.

    Don't be silly, Southam. This is what he said (in response to a specific question about the case, I believe):

    Mr Osborne, who this week has been defending cuts to housing benefit and other welfare changes, said: "Philpott is responsible for these absolutely horrendous crimes and these are crimes that have shocked the nation; the courts are responsible for sentencing him.

    "But I think there is a question for government and for society about the welfare state - and the taxpayers who pay for the welfare state - subsidising lifestyles like that, and I think that debate needs to be had."


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22025035

    Is there anyone who could possibly call that 'playing politics the deaths of six children' with a straight face?

    Why are Labour (a) blundering in with this ludicrous charge, and (b) not only that, but blundering in to defend the indefensible? Apart from the moral aspect, it is completely barmy politics. Do they really want to be seen to be on the side of the argument which says we shouldn't enquire how on earth we ended up with a system which has clearly been an absolute disaster in this case?

    Labour's response is incomprehensible. Why not simply agree with both bits of what Osborne says?
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    LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    @tim
    If you look at page 19 of your own link, you will see the figure of £9130 tax credits (i.e. working tax credit plus child tax credits) for a 2-child family with an income of £10k in the 12/13 tax year.

    Regarding the calculator you used : "This calculator will give you an idea of how much you could get, based on the information you give.
    The figure you see will be the total amount you could get between today's date and 5 April 2013."
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    MikeL said:

    Just to sum up in case anyone is still wondering we have 3 separate sources all giving the same answer:

    1) Main HMRC website table
    2) HMRC calculator
    3) The Times Budget tax / benefit tables

    Whilst your figures are the correct ones , someone with no children earning £ 10,000 would receive £ 1,245 if single or £ 3,200 with a partner so the correct allowance for 2 children is the difference between £ 9,125 and whichever above sum applies .

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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,311
    tim - tax credits are not discretionary - they are like Income tax and NI - they are fixed, set amounts.

    We have the same answer from 3 separate sources, Lucy has verified them and that is good enough for me and I'm sure 90% of people reading this.

    You know the figures are breathtaking and that's why you are desperate to throw doubt on them.

    As I say, 90% of people, at least, won't fall for this smokescreen.
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Yet again the Tories seem incapable of learning political lessons. Stoke the right wing dragon and you will get burnt.

    The Tories are just like North Korea. All this rhetoric and no action.
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    LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    edited April 2013
    @tim
    The average claim is £3k because the "credits" are awarded on a slding scale, according to household income.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,311
    And tim your own leaflet shows £9,130 total tax credits for an income of £10,000 on page 19!!!!

    And no, it's not for disabled children.

    http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/leaflets/wtc2.pdf
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,047
    edited April 2013
    Someone working fulltime and earning £10k per year would be earning £4.81 per hour for a 40 hour week! The HMRC site gives the minimum wage as the main adult rate (for workers 21 and over) as £6.19 an hour and for 18-20 year olds £4.98 an hour.

    Clearly our example on £10k hasn't got a full time job!

    Someone on minimum wage working 40 hours per week would be getting £12875. Would their wage be made up to £19k under circumstances quoted? Or more?
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    Ed Balls seems quite exceptionally rattled.

    Why would that be?

    Ed Balls helped design tax credits!

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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    @southam observer

    He used the amount the ghastly man was allowed to squeeze out of the state to carry on with his lifestyle.. No-one was asking any questions.. He just got his money into his bank account.. That has to change...it is a legitimate question to ask how this money was disbursed and what checks the state were making.
    Why did no-one check how much money he was getting?


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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited April 2013
    C4 News stated that the Phillpott "group" got £54,000 in benefits!
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351


    Of course George is playing politics - he's a politician, as is Ed Balls and all those whining about it. It's about the only thing they're good at.

    If the subject were on Labour's territory, they would be shroud-waving with a vengeance. As it is, they are now being hypocrites. Once you complain about somebody doing what we know you would do in the same circumstances, you've lost the argument.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,311
    Many thanks Mark Senior!!!

    Happy now tim?

    Mark - please note the figures do not include Child Benefit which also needs to be allowed for.

    My original post at 5.46pm makes this clear, ie

    Single person (no children) - Salary £10,000 - Net income £10,861

    ie Benefits of £1,245 less Tax / NI gives £861.

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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,894
    edited April 2013
    The figures as quoted on CH4 News are a surprise. If a family of eleven without any visible means of support can earn £53,000 it explains something which has been puzzling me for some time. There are many religious families whose members run well into double figures who manage to live reasonably well without any visible bread winner. I always thought the welfare state only supported the first tree children.

    I do think this is a gift for the Tories and I do wonder how this was ever allowed to get so out of hand. (Unless of course I'm missing something)
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,966


    Because George Osborne has used the deaths of six children to play politics.

    Don't be silly, Southam. This is what he said (in response to a specific question about the case, I believe):

    Mr Osborne, who this week has been defending cuts to housing benefit and other welfare changes, said: "Philpott is responsible for these absolutely horrendous crimes and these are crimes that have shocked the nation; the courts are responsible for sentencing him.

    "But I think there is a question for government and for society about the welfare state - and the taxpayers who pay for the welfare state - subsidising lifestyles like that, and I think that debate needs to be had."


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22025035

    Is there anyone who could possibly call that 'playing politics the deaths of six children' with a straight face?

    Why are Labour (a) blundering in with this ludicrous charge, and (b) not only that, but blundering in to defend the indefensible? Apart from the moral aspect, it is completely barmy politics. Do they really want to be seen to be on the side of the argument which says we shouldn't enquire how on earth we ended up with a system which has clearly been an absolute disaster in this case?

    Labour's response is incomprehensible. Why not simply agree with both bits of what Osborne says?

    Balls is not talking to dyed-in-the-wool Tories who will excuse anything that Osborne says and does. He is talking to other voters who believe there is a legitmate discussion to be had about welfare payments, but that it should not be conducted around the actions of a childkiller.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,371
    edited April 2013
    These figures essentially show why the country is bankrupt. When Tim points out for the next 100 times that the majority of those affected by housing benefit changes are "working" remember what this means.

    What it means in many cases is that they are working more than 16 hours a week, that they pay little or no income tax and that their wage is then more than doubled by the tax payer. Put bluntly this "work" costs us a fortune.

    Is it a price worth paying? That is more difficult. On balance it is better that people do something for their benefits, even if they are then much better remunerated than they would be for doing nothing. It is a better example for their children too and improves markedly their odds of contributing to society.

    In an ideal world incentivising work in this way, even low value, part time, minimum wage work, is a good thing. The question we need to ask is how much of this good thing can we afford? A lot less than we have been paying is the obvious answer.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,311
    OldKingCole - it's on a sliding scale - as I said at 5.46pm the tax rate is 73% so earning £3,000 more gross you get £810 more at end of day.

    But remember it's not £19k - we were at £21k because you also need to allow for Child Benefit of £1,752 (which is in addition to Tax Credits).
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    RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413

    Ed Balls helped design tax credits!

    Good point, although normally he has little difficulty in acting as though the Brown years were nothing to do with him, guv.
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    Roger, the figures are a shock. The burdens from housing, working tax credit & other benefits are growing to be a massive burden.

    It would be good for the country if the 3 main parties actually had a joint task force into the principle of capping claims at 2, 3 or 4 children, without touching those born before the starting date of the task force.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,966
    DavidL said:

    These figures essentially show why the country is bankrupt. When Tim points out for the next 100 times that the majority of those affected by housing benefit changes are "working" remember what this means.

    What it means in many cases is that they are working more than 16 hours a week, that they pay little or no income tax and that their wage is then more than doubled by the tax payer. Put bluntly this "work" costs us a fortune.

    Is it a price worth paying? That is more difficult. On balance it is better that people do something for their benefits, even if they are then much better remunerated than they would be for doing nothing. It is a better example for their children too and improves markedly their odds of contributing to society.

    In an ideal world incentivising work in this way, even low value, part time, minimum wage work, is a good thing. The question we need to ask is how much of this good thing can we afford? A lot less than we have been paying is the obvious answer.

    Indeed - the scandal is that someone would work full-time but be paid just £10,000 a year. Welcome to the Living Wage.

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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,311
    Now we have agreed the figures what I suggest needs to happen next is as follows:

    Cameron and IDS need to get on the TV and go through these figures I have posted this afternoon - over and over and over again.

    They need to make sure everyone knows just how astonishingly generous these Tax Credits are.

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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704


    Because George Osborne has used the deaths of six children to play politics.

    Don't be silly, Southam. This is what he said (in response to a specific question about the case, I believe):

    Mr Osborne, who this week has been defending cuts to housing benefit and other welfare changes, said: "Philpott is responsible for these absolutely horrendous crimes and these are crimes that have shocked the nation; the courts are responsible for sentencing him.

    "But I think there is a question for government and for society about the welfare state - and the taxpayers who pay for the welfare state - subsidising lifestyles like that, and I think that debate needs to be had."


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22025035

    Is there anyone who could possibly call that 'playing politics the deaths of six children' with a straight face?

    Why are Labour (a) blundering in with this ludicrous charge, and (b) not only that, but blundering in to defend the indefensible? Apart from the moral aspect, it is completely barmy politics. Do they really want to be seen to be on the side of the argument which says we shouldn't enquire how on earth we ended up with a system which has clearly been an absolute disaster in this case?

    Labour's response is incomprehensible. Why not simply agree with both bits of what Osborne says?

    Balls is not talking to dyed-in-the-wool Tories who will excuse anything that Osborne says and does. He is talking to other voters who believe there is a legitmate discussion to be had about welfare payments, but that it should not be conducted around the actions of a childkiller.
    The two are intertwined. The welfare system / payments enabled him to get into the position to commit the crime.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,047
    I suppose the unanswered question is why we, as "the rest" are subsidising cheap-skate employers? Who, if they are large, and therefore probably off-shore based, companies, are probably not paying much in the way of corporation tax.
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    RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413

    He is talking to other voters who believe there is a legitmate discussion to be had about welfare payments, but that it should not be conducted around the actions of a childkiller.

    Which is PRECISELY what Osborne said.

    It's a pity it's too late to do a test before you'd seen Osborne's words - we could have attributed them to a Labour politician, and asked for your reaction. I am 100% certain you'd have thought them prefectly measured and reasonable, for the very good reason that it is undeniable that they are perfectly measured and reasonable.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,966
    The two are intertwined. The welfare system / payments enabled him to get into the position to commit the crime.



    So, we abolish welfare because one evil childkiller abused the system, is that it? Or is a more reasoned response to say we need to get much, much tougher on those who abuse the system without penalising the vast majority who do not?

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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,371
    @SouthamObserver

    But they don't work full time SO. The table applies to couples who work 16 or more hours between them. One of Tim's valid points, also shown by the HMRC table, is that they suffer marginal tax rates of 70% until the benefit is withdrawn so, as MikeL says, increasing their salary by £20K makes them only about £5K better off. It is a valid point but it is also inevitable when people are really living on benefits, not on what they earn.

    The incentive to work full time is therefore missing under the present system. That is certainly one of the areas that needs attention. The tax credits need to be less generous and then less severely tapered so there is a greater incentive for the recipient to earn more either by working longer or getting a better paying job.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,311
    I think the Conservative manifesto will limit benefits to two children - for NEW children born 9 months after GE date.

    What Cameron must do is say repeatedly how generous tax credits are.

    Remember - I suggested the benefit cap on this website way, way before the Government announced it. Let's hope Dave is reading my advice again!!!
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,966

    He is talking to other voters who believe there is a legitmate discussion to be had about welfare payments, but that it should not be conducted around the actions of a childkiller.

    Which is PRECISELY what Osborne said.

    It's a pity it's too late to do a test before you'd seen Osborne's words - we could have attributed them to a Labour politician, and asked for your reaction. I am 100% certain you'd have thought them prefectly measured and reasonable, for the very good reason that it is undeniable that they are perfectly measured and reasonable.

    Nope - I would have found any attempt to discuss this country's welfare system using the actions of a childkiller as a hook to be utterly offensive - even more offensive than attempts to manipulate statistics on those claiming disability benefit to imply that over 800,000 had decided to stop claiming because fitness tests had been introduced.

This discussion has been closed.