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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How it could go wrong for LAB in South Shields: 2. Ukip choosing someone as good as Eastleigh’s Diane James
What Ukip need in the coming by-election – the #SouthShields equivalent of Diane James – who came second @ Eastleigh. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
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*Betting Post*
Fantastic day's racing and not just at Aintree. My money is on:
Aintree:
2.00 Flaxen Flare 5/1
2.30 Quito de la Roque 10/1
3.05 Countrywide Flame 9/2
3.40 Cottage Oak 7/1
4.50 Captain Conan 13/8
5.25 Barafundle 16/1
Jetson 7/1
Many Clouds 12/1
Ely Brown 25/1
Hada Man 40/1
Taunton:
3.55 Monetary Fund 5/1
5.35 Helium 14/1
Lingfield:
4.05 Hard Walnut 11/2
4.40 North Star Boy 17/2
Wolverhampton:
5.20 Jordanstown 13/2
6.25 Holy Angel 5/1
7.55 One Scoop or Two 5/1
By far my heaviest bet is on Countrywide Flame in the Aintree hurdle. I think this is a knocking good each way bet. It was a staying on third in the Champion Hurdle behind top-notch Hurrican Fly and Rock On Ruby. The extra 4 furlongs should suit. The New One will have to be a very good horse to beat it, and even then place money should cover the loss.
I have also gone quite strong on the selections for the 2.00 and the 5.35.
If you are puzzled by the selection of five choices for the 5.25, remember that it is a 16+ runner handicap and you get 1/4 the odds on the first four home. This makes the place value exceptionally good. It's almost worth backing each way even if all you have to help you is a well-sharpened pin, but as it happens, it is one of those races where a lot of the field can be excluded without too much difficulty. Three mile hurdling is a real specialism, and very few horses get the distance. The five in question definitely do. I've backed them all each way, and in reverse-forecasts. You can have fun with this one if you fancy - there are all sorts of permutations you can try, but even if you just do a couple each way, you will be getting value. (Barafundle is probably the best of them if you only want one.)
All the other selections are to modest stakes.
Good luck. I'll be back much later with comments, excuses etc.
Blimey, Peter Oborne's changed his tune. Has he seen a poll the rest of us haven't?
Markit published their UK Service Sector PMIs this morning and the result is good news for the UK and bad news for the Eurozone.
The UK’s services sector expanded in March to its strongest level in seven months while the Eurozone contracted to its worst since late last year, according to data released on Thursday.
The Markit/CIPS Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the dominant service sector showed the UK climbed to 52.4 in March from 51.8 in February. It beat the 51.5 market consensus.
Europe's services PMI fell to 46.4 from 47.9 in February, pointing to a deeper recession in the region. A figure below 50 indicates a contraction in activity.
That the UK is surging ahead of Europe is good news and a testament to the skill of Captain George's helmsmanship. Europe however remains battered by headwinds and appears to making little progress.
Chris Williamson, the Chief Economist at Markit, summarises the Eurozone problems:
"While the first quarter contraction [by the euro-zone economy] is likely to have been less steep than the 0.6% decline seen in the final quarter of last year, the concern is that the euro-zone downturn shows no signs of ending"
It is a big ask and I believe that the most likely outcome is LAB first with Ukip second. But if Labour gets it candidate choice wrong and Ukip right then there could just possibly be a surprise.
In these super strong areas for Labour there can often be a feeling of resentment. The coalition partners are right out of this which leaves Ukip.
I make money on a UKIP victory but don't lose provided that Ukip comes second
"Unlike Eastleigh Ukip start with an advantage. The party has a councillor on the South Tyneside authority."
Are you implying that councillor should perhaps stand?
If it's still this guy he's quite a controversial chap.
Another Labour insider says it provides in insight into the political psychology of Ed’s inner circle. “You have to understand, they’re totally obsessed with the idea of posh people. They think it’s the defining issue. They think if they can paint Cameron as the posh guy, and Ed as an ordinary guy, they’ll win.”
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100210501/labours-new-strategy-get-this-muthaflippin-miliband-on-this-muthaflippin-train/
If, as tim suggests, the BNP and EDL stood behind her, we would be most unlikely to see her bottom in the poll.
Still, UKIP will do well and probably come second. By 'well', I mean something in the 20% to 25% range, with Labour on around 60%, and the others squabbling over the dregs.
re: Spectator/Pippa
no idea perhaps they think they are being post-modern.
Worse than that IMO is their "Life" supplement which is full of gushy pieces on holiday resorts and 100 grand watches.
I can't work out where it fits in their profile or the profile of their readers (who might wear 100 grand watches but want some critical element in articles about them)
It's a safe seat. They likely want the headlines of a good win. We'll see if they come to regret that.
I took the tens last nite but switched to Flaxen Flare today. Nevertheless a nice net profit.
Cheers!
That certainly was a shock result, but IIRC South Shields doesn't have a large ethnic block of votes.
A new low for @georgeosborne as he brings #philpott into the welfare debate. Tastleless & wrong.
Was the judge tasteless and wrong ?
The probability of a Labour candidate in South Shields being on benefits is quite high.
Probably his idea to send Cammie to scotland to say Trident is a spiffing idea.
How could a master strategy like that possibly fail?
Perhaps he will put George in charge of the referendum campaign when it comes near, that would certainly be of Machiavellian brilliance.
Fingers crossed...
"Their wages and benefits went into your account #Philpott "You did not even allow them their own door key"
Acorns tasty?
"In her sentencing remarks, the judge made no suggestion that Philpott's actions had been driven by welfare or benefits."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2013/apr/04/mick-philpott-benefits-lifestyle-questioned
Lansley still not PM?
At some point she's likely to be odds on favourite, so might make a decent trading bet if you're prepared to lock up the stake for a while.
No, I expected her to stick to the matter in hand, and I'm glad to say she did. TGOHF seems to think she didn't, however, so I was just setting him straight.
Don't be so pessimistic. Support for independence is on the up and up - which means the West Lothian Question is going to be resolved in the only way it really can be.
Now Peter Watt ex general secretary of the Labour party writes "Labour has got itself into a mess on welfare" "I don’t know what Labour’s position on welfare reform is. I know that the Tories want to cut welfare bills and make work pay. I know this because they keep saying it.."
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/04/04/labour-has-got-itself-into-a-mess-on-welfare/
Grrrr....backed it at Cheltenham.
Went to the funeral and missed the wedding.
Great trainer, Mouse Morris. He had a heartbreaking Festival. Good to see him by the winning pole.
Stop subsidising English votes? How much do they cost?
A serious important matter worthy of debate.
Would you rather we stuck to whether someone is posh or not ?
Pathetic stuff from the left - this topic and case has the public talking - censoring comment on it is not the answer.
PS - where's rEd ? On holiday ? On a train ?
Going by the date of that article the councillor would still be bankrupt. If he is the subject of a bankruptcy restriction order then he is not an eligible candidate and any election where he won would be void s 426A of the Insolvency Act 1986.
Whether such an order is made (and its effect is far wider than Parliament) depends on the conduct that leads to the bankruptcy.
Curiously the law in Scotland is different from England in this area. A Scot would have 6 months to get the sequestration annulled.
Not that surprising since Cammie probably doesn't want to upset his backbenchers.
The McKay commision on the WLQ reported and now it's in the hands of Cammie and Clegg whether to implement english votes for english laws. Yet strangely, there has been barely a peep out from the coalition on it yet. Despite them trumpeting it in their amusing 'Ronseal' Relaunch coalition document.
http://www.cardiff.ac.uk/news/articles/conclusions-of-mckay-10607.html
http://tmc.independent.gov.uk/news/the-mckay-commission-report-on-the-consequences-of-devolution-for-the-house-of-commons-published-25-march-2013/
I presume, then, you wouldn't object if a wealthy person's conviction for murder was met by a thoughtful contribution of "this is what happens when you don't have 100% inheritance tax, and when you have fops running the country".
"The Prime Minister praised the defence industry in Scotland and pointed out that a great many jobs rest on it. An independent Scotland could not expect to get many defence contracts from England, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Any Nationalist who is remotely annoyed about this statement of fact is being delusional or has watched Braveheart too many times. "
Hmmm. Thoughts on "delusion" from the rag that has just earnestly reported David Cameron's intriguing belief that we must renew Trident on the grounds that we are at more risk of suffering a nuclear attack than we were at the height of the Cold War.
I tried to make it as simple as possible for a right winger like yourself to understand.
Not supporting the tories doesn't mean you support labour. I support the SNP.
Grasped it yet chum?
LOL
Because you support right wing policies does that mean you have joined the BNP?
A much more typical example of a UKIP councillor than Diane James .
Except for viewers in Scotland. Perhaps you might call that a "historic divergence" - which is going to lead to backing for independence in eighteen months' time.
No it doesn't. It's only private money because the law mandates it to be. The representatives of taxpayers could have much better use for it.
We may be wailing about the UK economy but the problems facing the Eurozone really are dire. Even Germany is stagnating.
The Eurozone downturn intensified in March as Germany neared levels of stagnation, according to purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) published on Thursday by Markit.
The final reading of the Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index remained unchanged from the preliminary estimate at 46.5 but the rate of decline increased from February's 47.9 number. Output for the region has now fallen in each of the last 19 months with the sole exception of a marginal increase at the beginning of last year.
France noted the steepest downturn out of the four largest Eurozone nations while both Spain and Italy noted “severe” contractions. “Only Germany continued to see higher business activity, though even there the rate of expansion slowed sharply to near-stagnation,” Markit commented in the report.
March saw the largest monthly fall in new orders since December. New business dropped at the fastest rate since September in the service sector, while manufacturers reported the steepest drop in new orders since December. New orders fell for the first time in three months in Germany, accompanied by sharp rates of decline in France, Italy and Spain.
Markit Chief Economist Chris Williamson still believes that the first quarter contraction in the Eurozone will be “less steep” that the fourth quarter of 2012 but noted that “the concern is that the Eurozone downturn shows no signs of ending.
“The recession is deepening once again as businesses report that they have become increasingly worried about the region’s debt crisis and political instability.”
---------------------------------------------------
We may gloat at how well the UK is doing in comparison with the Eurozone countries but the continued recession on the continent is really bad news for us all.
Thank God we have George to keep us safe.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/04/04/carville-signs-on-with-pro-hillary-super-pac/
I'm pretty confident this means Hillary is running.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22029895
Is Mr Potts the UKIP candidate - or the SS local councillor mentioned in OGH article?
Is that why the Scottish Tories steadily fell from 51% of the vote in 1955 to 17% of the vote in 2010? What is this - some kind of elongated boomerang effect that will take another couple of centuries to play out?
Really looking forward to the next. On both Countrywide Flame and Oscar Whisky. But I am worried that I have deserted The New One who looked so good when I backed him at Cheltenham.
No. Property is determined by law.
If that is indeed their position, then they should say that.
When do I put forward "Labourite" views? I'm considerably to the left of the modern Labour party.
Thankyou for conceding that this privilege is at the discretion of wider society, and can be withdrawn.
I'm on Countrywide flame £100 @ 11/2 via betfair sportsbook
They're not only matching the industry BOG, but giving a full refund if 2nd.
Decent concession IMO
http://order-order.com/2013/04/04/watch-osborne-asks-why-taxpayer-subsidised-philpott/