Angels on pinhead territory. Either the law of the land is that Parliament has to approve triggering Article 50, or it doesn't. If the Govt. wins its appeal, then Parliament has no role in the process. If the Govt. loses and has to get the approval of Parliament, then Article 50 still gets triggered, because Labour has said it will not block the will of the people, which is to leave the EU.
Once it is triggered, you are looking at some Black Swan to slow the process of leaving. It will happen in 2019. UK politics dictates that it will happen. Anybody getting in the way will be crushed by the voters. That is the practical situation.
Stopping Article 50 is based on pie on the sky wishes. Delaying its implementation, likewise.
Possible legal outcomes are one thing. The practical politics of it, quite another. People had a chance to stop Brexit. That ended on 23rd June, when they lost the argument with the voters.
But what Brexit means was not decided by the referendum.
No. But what was decided was Brexit. We're going out.
Yes, but then we get onto defining what 'out' means.
For many Brexiters, 'out' means no EEA, no payments to the EU (after all, the NHS needs all that money) and for the UK to be dragged halfway across the Atlantic.
To other Brexiters, 'out' means being part of the EEA and many other organisations, including payments to the hated EU.
I think that FT letter is rather good. you can disagree with it while accepting it's a few levels above the usual Remain whine.
Given the lack of logic in the letter let's hope he doesn't work as a systems analyst or engineer.
Never forget: there are 16 million traitors that Boris, Nigel & other patriots have yet to suppress. In the national interest, of course. They could start by being character witnesses for Thomas Mair - but will they have the guts?
I favour rounding them all up on the Western Hebrides, which will coincidentally be a testing ground for Trident II.
"We" are 40-something, soft-left, very middle class, slightly-ashamed-to-be-English, ex-Blairite/New Labourites then.
Pretty much the core of the Remain vote.
A little unfair...I am and know of plenty of Tory supporting Remainers who voted that way not out of any love for the EU but because of economic concerns and the potential for chaos post Referendum. Those worries are hardly being assuaged by a government that appears to be approaching Brownian levels of inertia and incompetence, concerns all the more heightened by the imbeciles in opposition.
That said the letter is nauseating and personally I'd rather stab my bollocks with a rusty scalpel than be described as one of the 48.
Angels on pinhead territory. Either the law of the land is that Parliament has to approve triggering Article 50, or it doesn't. If the Govt. wins its appeal, then Parliament has no role in the process. If the Govt. loses and has to get the approval of Parliament, then Article 50 still gets triggered, because Labour has said it will not block the will of the people, which is to leave the EU.
Once it is triggered, you are looking at some Black Swan to slow the process of leaving. It will happen in 2019. UK politics dictates that it will happen. Anybody getting in the way will be crushed by the voters. That is the practical situation.
Stopping Article 50 is based on pie on the sky wishes. Delaying its implementation, likewise.
Possible legal outcomes are one thing. The practical politics of it, quite another. People had a chance to stop Brexit. That ended on 23rd June, when they lost the argument with the voters.
But what Brexit means was not decided by the referendum.
No. But what was decided was Brexit. We're going out.
Yes, but then we get onto defining what 'out' means.
For many Brexiters, 'out' means no EEA, no payments to the EU (after all, the NHS needs all that money) and for the UK to be dragged halfway across the Atlantic.
To other Brexiters, 'out' means being part of the EEA and many other organisations, including payments to the hated EU.
Thee two views are irreconcilable.
Nope. They are both reconciled by the fact we would no longer be part of the EU.
Politically, all the UK Government needs to do is demonstrate a net sovereignty improvement over Cameron's deal that they can then sell to the voters.
I'll say it now, this bill will be as unamendable as the Titanic was unsinkable
It will be amendable. Bigly amendable.
Of course it will, in theory. And no doubt the opposition parties, and perhaps some on the Tory side, will try to amend it.
Whether it is amendable in practice depends on politics rather than procedure. But even there, it wouldn't be sustainable to call a general election if the Bill's one clause:
(1) The Secretary of State shall have the authority to notify the European Council of the United Kingdom's intention to withdraw from the EU as required by Article 50 of the TEU.
Were amended to add, for example, "... subject to the prior assent of the House of Commons". The extent to which the government could use threats to prevent amendment would depend on how justifiable the amendments would look to the public.
"We" are 40-something, soft-left, very middle class, slightly-ashamed-to-be-English, ex-Blairite/New Labourites then.
Pretty much the core of the Remain vote.
A little unfair...I am and know of plenty of Tory supporting Remainers who voted that way not out of any love for the EU but because of economic concerns and the potential for chaos post Referendum. Those worries are hardly being assuaged by a government that appears to be approaching Brownian levels of inertia and incompetence, concerns all the more heightened by the imbeciles in opposition.
That said the letter is nauseating and personally I'd rather stab my bollocks with a rusty scalpel than be described as one of the 48.
I was referring to how the author saw himself and others like him.
One kills off UKIP. The other allows them to scream betrayal in marginal constituencies led by a man who has the ear of the world's most powerful leader.
Angels on pinhead territory. Either the law of the land is that Parliament has to approve triggering Article 50, or it doesn't. If the Govt. wins its appeal, then Parliament has no role in the process. If the Govt. loses and has to get the approval of Parliament, then Article 50 still gets triggered, because Labour has said it will not block the will of the people, which is to leave the EU.
Once it is triggered, you are looking at some Black Swan to slow the process of leaving. It will happen in 2019. UK politics dictates that it will happen. Anybody getting in the way will be crushed by the voters. That is the practical situation.
Stopping Article 50 is based on pie on the sky wishes. Delaying its implementation, likewise.
Possible legal outcomes are one thing. The practical politics of it, quite another. People had a chance to stop Brexit. That ended on 23rd June, when they lost the argument with the voters.
But what Brexit means was not decided by the referendum.
No. But what was decided was Brexit. We're going out.
Yes, but then we get onto defining what 'out' means.
For many Brexiters, 'out' means no EEA, no payments to the EU (after all, the NHS needs all that money) and for the UK to be dragged halfway across the Atlantic.
To other Brexiters, 'out' means being part of the EEA and many other organisations, including payments to the hated EU.
Thee two views are irreconcilable.
Nope. They are both reconciled by the fact we would no longer be part of the EU.
Politically, all the UK Government needs to do is demonstrate a net sovereignty improvement over Cameron's deal that they can then sell to the voters.
That's your view, as one of the second group. Many (most?) of the first group wouldn't agree. And therein lies the problem.
Selling any deal where we remain in some EU or European institutions - and especially pay into it - will be really difficult. Perhaps impossibly so.
It's a mess, and I don't see any easy solutions. I daresay you do, but you're not being realistic IMO.
@BBCPhilipSim: SNP ask what the Tories really want from Brexit. Tories ask what SNP really want from Brexit. Now an SNP MSP asks what Labour really want...
One kills off UKIP. The other allows them to scream betrayal in marginal constituencies led by a man who has the ear of the world's most powerful leader.
What would you do?
Cameron had the ear of the world's most powerful leader, didn't do him much good.
OGH needs to amend his thread text. The alleged "report" was written by bean-counters at Deloitte presumably to justify their need to act as consultants.
One kills off UKIP. The other allows them to scream betrayal in marginal constituencies led by a man who has the ear of the world's most powerful leader.
What would you do?
I'm reluctantly for Quexit - whatever deal we can do the quickest, or none. The US election has just reinforced the necessity.
@BBCPhilipSim: SNP ask what the Tories really want from Brexit. Tories ask what SNP really want from Brexit. Now an SNP MSP asks what Labour really want...
"I wanna, (ha) I wanna, (ha) I wanna, (ha) I wanna, (ha) I wanna really, really, really wanna zigazig ah"
Angels on pinhead territory. Either the law of the land is that Parliament has to approve triggering Article 50, or it doesn't. If the Govt. wins its appeal, then Parliament has no role in the process. If the Govt. loses and has to get the approval of Parliament, then Article 50 still gets triggered, because Labour has said it will not block the will of the people, which is to leave the EU.
Once it is triggered, you are looking at some Black Swan to slow the process of leaving. It will happen in 2019. UK politics dictates that it will happen. Anybody getting in the way will be crushed by the voters. That is the practical situation.
Stopping Article 50 is based on pie on the sky wishes. Delaying its implementation, likewise.
Possible legal outcomes are one thing. The practical politics of it, quite another. People had a chance to stop Brexit. That ended on 23rd June, when they lost the argument with the voters.
But what Brexit means was not decided by the referendum.
No. But what was decided was Brexit. We're going out.
Yes, but then we get onto defining what 'out' means.
For many Brexiters, 'out' means no EEA, no payments to the EU (after all, the NHS needs all that money) and for the UK to be dragged halfway across the Atlantic.
To other Brexiters, 'out' means being part of the EEA and many other organisations, including payments to the hated EU.
Thee two views are irreconcilable.
Nope. They are both reconciled by the fact we would no longer be part of the EU.
Politically, all the UK Government needs to do is demonstrate a net sovereignty improvement over Cameron's deal that they can then sell to the voters.
Putting those two statements from Boris together, is the negotiating position, "If you want to keep us in the customs union you need to give us a concession on free movement."
How long before No 10 "clarifies" his remarks?
It's like having Geoff Boycott as foreign secretary.
How very dare you. Sir Geoffrey would have dead-batted much more effectively.
One kills off UKIP. The other allows them to scream betrayal in marginal constituencies led by a man who has the ear of the world's most powerful leader.
@PickardJE: Number 10 says May's white paper on industrial strategy won't be published til next year: "No sense of urgency," says one industry source.
Long grass?
If there was an easy to implement 'industrial strategy' then it would have been done by now.
In last nights speech May seemed to think bribing Nissan to stay in Sunderland and opening a centre to repair and maintain US built F-35 aircraft in North Wales was evidence of an industrial strategy so I don't think we should expect any deep thinking from her on this matter.
On 23rd November, that is a week tomorrow, our slightly depressed bank manager needs to give his Autumn Statement. It is profoundly sub-optimal that this Statement should be given in the current morass of uncertainty. The failure of Mrs May's government to have a plan, an objective, even an idea of where it is going or even where it wants to go is going to catch up with her in a serious way.
Are we really supposed to go on like this until March next year and beyond? Being PM is a lot harder than David Cameron made it look.
On 23rd November, that is a week tomorrow, our slightly depressed bank manager needs to give his Autumn Statement. It is profoundly sub-optimal that this Statement should be given in the current morass of uncertainty. The failure of Mrs May's government to have a plan, an objective, even an idea of where it is going or even where it wants to go is going to catch up with her in a serious way.
Are we really supposed to go on like this until March next year and beyond? Being PM is a lot harder than David Cameron made it look.
On 23rd November, that is a week tomorrow, our slightly depressed bank manager needs to give his Autumn Statement. It is profoundly sub-optimal that this Statement should be given in the current morass of uncertainty. The failure of Mrs May's government to have a plan, an objective, even an idea of where it is going or even where it wants to go is going to catch up with her in a serious way.
Are we really supposed to go on like this until March next year and beyond? Being PM is a lot harder than David Cameron made it look.
@PickardJE: Number 10 says May's white paper on industrial strategy won't be published til next year: "No sense of urgency," says one industry source.
Long grass?
If there was an easy to implement 'industrial strategy' then it would have been done by now.
In last nights speech May seemed to think bribing Nissan to stay in Sunderland and opening a centre to repair and maintain US built F-35 aircraft in North Wales was evidence of an industrial strategy so I don't think we should expect any deep thinking from her on this matter.
With the benefit of any sight at all (fore, hind, take your pick) signing up to the Strike Price agreed at Hinkley Point might be thought inimical to having an industrial policy based on having major consumers of energy in the UK.
@marqueemark FPT you are not a sneerer, your style is more sudden lunge and withdraw. I don't mind that, because you are prepared for give and take. What I object to is the constant belittling of liberals by rightwingers who just push past everyone they disagree with, telling us we are wrong and that it is weak to care about others and that any opinions they don't like are not allowed and have to be silenced.
None of that has any effect on liberals by the way. We used to just roll our eyes and get on with whatever we were doing. These days I think we need to fight back and make it clearer that we won't be bullied into submission.
Mr. L, I largely agree but it's worth noting Cameron gave May (to use a rugby term) a full-blown hospital pass.
Cameron and Osborne forbidden *any* preparatory work by the Civil Service was a serious dereliction of duty.
Yes Mr Dancer, Brexit is a hospital pass for the country.
Should have listened to Dave and George and voted Remain.
Voting to Leave is liking Carthage declaring war on Rome, you're asking a humiliating defeat, especially if your leaders like Hannibal and Mrs May are a bit crap
Mr. L, I largely agree but it's worth noting Cameron gave May (to use a rugby term) a full-blown hospital pass.
Cameron and Osborne forbidden *any* preparatory work by the Civil Service was a serious dereliction of duty.
Yes Mr Dancer, Brexit is a hospital pass for the country.
Should have listened to Dave and George and voted Remain.
Voting to Leave is liking Carthage declaring war on Rome, you're asking a humiliating defeat, especially if your leaders like Hannibal and Mrs May are a bit crap
Obama: Iowa Hillary, I won there despite it being white as snow. Because I actually went there, and I'm good at this stuff.
Trump: If it was based on popular vote, I'd have made a real effort in Florida.
Well she was a bit shit wasn't she.
Alot in the Parliamentary Labour party would kill to have someone of her very modest ability in charge now though
Nah. She's a woman.
A lot of people think Owen Thingy was a failure, but if he hadn't stepped in there was a real risk Labour might have ended up with a female leader, and then were would we be?!
Mr. L, I largely agree but it's worth noting Cameron gave May (to use a rugby term) a full-blown hospital pass.
Cameron and Osborne forbidden *any* preparatory work by the Civil Service was a serious dereliction of duty.
The exact course of Brexit is a political decision based on trade-offs between mutually exclusive priorities.
Cameron and Osborne could have spent 2 years having the civil service prepare for an EEA Brexit and then their successors could have ripped that up in their first week in office because they didn't like the lack of control of immigration that resulted in.
Mr. L, I largely agree but it's worth noting Cameron gave May (to use a rugby term) a full-blown hospital pass.
Cameron and Osborne forbidden *any* preparatory work by the Civil Service was a serious dereliction of duty.
The exact course of Brexit is a political decision based on trade-offs between mutually exclusive priorities.
Cameron and Osborne could have spent 2 years having the civil service prepare for an EEA Brexit and then their successors could have ripped that up in their first week in office because they didn't like the lack of control of immigration that resulted in.
Maybe but they would have had a shopping list of the issues to be dealt with, the decisions to be made, the options that were possible, the likely trade offs, the basis for an informed discussion and a framework within which to make those decisions.
I have some sympathy for May in that respect but it is wearing a tad thin...
Maybe but they would have had a shopping list of the issues to be dealt with, the decisions to be made, the options that were possible, the likely trade offs, the basis for an informed discussion and a framework within which to make those decisions.
I have some sympathy for May in that respect but it is wearing a tad thin...
But if that list takes 30,000 staff and five years to compile...
Mr. L, I largely agree but it's worth noting Cameron gave May (to use a rugby term) a full-blown hospital pass.
Cameron and Osborne forbidden *any* preparatory work by the Civil Service was a serious dereliction of duty.
Yes Mr Dancer, Brexit is a hospital pass for the country.
Should have listened to Dave and George and voted Remain.
Voting to Leave is liking Carthage declaring war on Rome, you're asking a humiliating defeat, especially if your leaders like Hannibal and Mrs May are a bit crap
Obama says:"Right outside the door of the Treaty Room, so that I see it every day - including on weekends when I'm going into that office to watch a basketball game - the primary image I see is a bust of Winston Churchill," he said.
"It's there voluntarily because I can do anything on the second floor. I love the guy."
In what way does he *love* the guy, on the floor he can do *anything* on?
Maybe but they would have had a shopping list of the issues to be dealt with, the decisions to be made, the options that were possible, the likely trade offs, the basis for an informed discussion and a framework within which to make those decisions.
I have some sympathy for May in that respect but it is wearing a tad thin...
But if that list takes 30,000 staff and five years to compile...
Well it wouldn't and it won't (unless you can get them all on Deloittes' charge out rates in which case why not?)
Lao-Tzu allegedly said that "A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step".
So let it be with Brexit. It is now past time those kitten heels got walking.
After Donald Trump’s election as president, Pamela Ramsey Taylor, director of the Clay County Development Corp., took to Facebook to comment on the upcoming shift from Obama to Melania Trump, reportedly writing: “It will be so refreshing to have a classy, beautiful, dignified First Lady back in the White House. I’m tired of seeing a Ape in heels.”
Judging by the FTs latest account of the EU's negotiating stance, it and the British government won;t be on the same planet.
It really is quite extraordinary.
Both sides are enjoying the psychological trick of anchoring. I wouldn't pay the slightest bit of notice. In all probability:
There will be controls on low skilled immigration There will (be) payments to the EU There will be largely free access to the single market
I did think that a few months ago but the people running the EU are just so dogmatically stupid that it looks more like an exit on WTO terms. We should therefore prepare for it.
After Donald Trump’s election as president, Pamela Ramsey Taylor, director of the Clay County Development Corp., took to Facebook to comment on the upcoming shift from Obama to Melania Trump, reportedly writing: “It will be so refreshing to have a classy, beautiful, dignified First Lady back in the White House. I’m tired of seeing a Ape in heels.”
After Donald Trump’s election as president, Pamela Ramsey Taylor, director of the Clay County Development Corp., took to Facebook to comment on the upcoming shift from Obama to Melania Trump, reportedly writing: “It will be so refreshing to have a classy, beautiful, dignified First Lady back in the White House. I’m tired of seeing a Ape in heels.”
@marqueemark FPT you are not a sneerer, your style is more sudden lunge and withdraw. I don't mind that, because you are prepared for give and take. What I object to is the constant belittling of liberals by rightwingers who just push past everyone they disagree with, telling us we are wrong and that it is weak to care about others and that any opinions they don't like are not allowed and have to be silenced. ...........
You describe yourself as a liberal. Do you hold with the views of classical liberals who believe that it is in the common interest that all individuals must be able to secure their own economic self-interest, without government direction? (Adam Smith)
Jeez, what a narcissistic knob the disgraced Liam Fox is
So, what are the current batch of civil servants getting up to? Well, over in the Department for International Trade, Mr S understands that reading is high on the agenda. Word reaches Steerpike that Liam Fox has instructed his civil servants to read Rising Tides: Facing the Challenges of a New Era — a book that aims to explain ‘how to meet the challenge of the new global reality’. And which bright spark is the author of the tome? A man by the name of… Liam Fox. Well, that’s one way to increase book sales.
After Donald Trump’s election as president, Pamela Ramsey Taylor, director of the Clay County Development Corp., took to Facebook to comment on the upcoming shift from Obama to Melania Trump, reportedly writing: “It will be so refreshing to have a classy, beautiful, dignified First Lady back in the White House. I’m tired of seeing a Ape in heels.”
Facebook is the epitome of leftist 20-something etc etc, not in Breitbart not true etc etc. Just helping the usual suspect(s) here with their justification.
Mr. L, I largely agree but it's worth noting Cameron gave May (to use a rugby term) a full-blown hospital pass.
Cameron and Osborne forbidden *any* preparatory work by the Civil Service was a serious dereliction of duty.
The exact course of Brexit is a political decision based on trade-offs between mutually exclusive priorities.
Cameron and Osborne could have spent 2 years having the civil service prepare for an EEA Brexit and then their successors could have ripped that up in their first week in office because they didn't like the lack of control of immigration that resulted in.
FOI. Cameron feared FOI requests from the Leave campaign. Deloitte was probably used to get round FOI as well, along with various unofficial email servers around the world.
Judging by the FTs latest account of the EU's negotiating stance, it and the British government won;t be on the same planet.
It really is quite extraordinary.
Both sides are enjoying the psychological trick of anchoring. I wouldn't pay the slightest bit of notice. In all probability:
There will be controls on low skilled immigration There will (be) payments to the EU There will be largely free access to the single market
I did think that a few months ago but the people running the EU are just so dogmatically stupid that it looks more like an exit on WTO terms. We should therefore prepare for it.
We need to prepare for WTO, obviously. Not least because without doing that our leverage is limited.
But I think it's important to remember that the real negotiations happen with the countries. The EU doesn't get a vote.
Really, the question is can we cut a deal with the Spanish, the French, the Italians, the Germans and the Dutch? None of those countries wants to reach into their pockets if they can possibly avoid it. So, I'd say yes we can.
After Donald Trump’s election as president, Pamela Ramsey Taylor, director of the Clay County Development Corp., took to Facebook to comment on the upcoming shift from Obama to Melania Trump, reportedly writing: “It will be so refreshing to have a classy, beautiful, dignified First Lady back in the White House. I’m tired of seeing a Ape in heels.”
Facebook is the epitome of leftist 20-something etc etc, not in Breitbart not true etc etc. Just helping the usual suspect(s) here with their justification.
@marqueemark FPT you are not a sneerer, your style is more sudden lunge and withdraw. I don't mind that, because you are prepared for give and take. What I object to is the constant belittling of liberals by rightwingers who just push past everyone they disagree with, telling us we are wrong and that it is weak to care about others and that any opinions they don't like are not allowed and have to be silenced. ...........
You describe yourself as a liberal. Do you hold with the views of classical liberals who believe that it is in the common interest that all individuals must be able to secure their own economic self-interest, without government direction? (Adam Smith)
Liberal in the last 20th/early 20th century standard European-use meaning has come to suggest watery socialism. Which you are no doubt aware.
Jeez, what a narcissistic knob the disgraced Liam Fox is
So, what are the current batch of civil servants getting up to? Well, over in the Department for International Trade, Mr S understands that reading is high on the agenda. Word reaches Steerpike that Liam Fox has instructed his civil servants to read Rising Tides: Facing the Challenges of a New Era — a book that aims to explain ‘how to meet the challenge of the new global reality’. And which bright spark is the author of the tome? A man by the name of… Liam Fox. Well, that’s one way to increase book sales.
All of the information in this book is open-sourced and readily available for anyone with a computer and a search engine. In fact, anyone with an interest in any of these subjects could have written this book; I hope I have saved some people the trouble.
@marqueemark FPT you are not a sneerer, your style is more sudden lunge and withdraw. I don't mind that, because you are prepared for give and take. What I object to is the constant belittling of liberals by rightwingers who just push past everyone they disagree with, telling us we are wrong and that it is weak to care about others and that any opinions they don't like are not allowed and have to be silenced. ...........
You describe yourself as a liberal. Do you hold with the views of classical liberals who believe that it is in the common interest that all individuals must be able to secure their own economic self-interest, without government direction? (Adam Smith)
I didn't know Smith wanted to decriminalize theft...
Jeez, what a narcissistic knob the disgraced Liam Fox is
So, what are the current batch of civil servants getting up to? Well, over in the Department for International Trade, Mr S understands that reading is high on the agenda. Word reaches Steerpike that Liam Fox has instructed his civil servants to read Rising Tides: Facing the Challenges of a New Era — a book that aims to explain ‘how to meet the challenge of the new global reality’. And which bright spark is the author of the tome? A man by the name of… Liam Fox. Well, that’s one way to increase book sales.
All of the information in this book is open-sourced and readily available for anyone with a computer and a search engine. In fact, anyone with an interest in any of these subjects could have written this book; I hope I have saved some people the trouble.
Skimming further, Liam Fox offers the searing insight that the process of globalisation began when the inhabitants of Africa wandered off to find new lands.
His version of the Leadsomesque 'as a mother' is 'as a doctor'.
This isn't a market I'm playing. If it were, I think I'd prefer to be backing "before end June 2017". Theresa May will lack credibility if she doesn't do it by her self-imposed deadline of 31 March 2017 unless she is legally lacking the power to do so. So if the government wins in the Supreme Court, we'll see an early declaration.
If the government doesn't win in the Supreme Court, I don't expect to see the Article 50 Bill held up long in the House of Commons. Would the House of Lords seek to stall it? That doesn't look anything like a 40% chance to me, given the public pronouncements so far.
That said, I expect Theresa May would welcome additional time to prepare for the two year negotiation period. So maybe she will be dragging her kitten heels behind the scenes.
If right, it may solve some of the problems facing physics. And probably create new ones at the same time ...
Hard to tell if either of his articles linked are actually peer-reviewed.
I don't know. The problem is that his theory seems at least as plausible / stupid as the current sillystring theory and the miraculously missing and undetectable dark matter.
This isn't a market I'm playing. If it were, I think I'd prefer to be backing "before end June 2017". Theresa May will lack credibility if she doesn't do it by her self-imposed deadline of 31 March 2017 unless she is legally lacking the power to do so. So if the government wins in the Supreme Court, we'll see an early declaration.
If the government doesn't win in the Supreme Court, I don't expect to see the Article 50 Bill held up long in the House of Commons. Would the House of Lords seek to stall it? That doesn't look anything like a 40% chance to me, given the public pronouncements so far.
That said, I expect Theresa May would welcome additional time to prepare for the two year negotiation period. So maybe she will be dragging her kitten heels behind the scenes.
A few fun betting markets would be
1) When/if the Article 50 bill is passed in the Commons
2) How large the majority approving Article 50 in the Commons is.
Angels on pinhead territory. Either the law of the land is that Parliament has to approve triggering Article 50, or it doesn't. If the Govt. wins its appeal, then Parliament has no role in the process. If the Govt. loses and has to get the approval of Parliament, then Article 50 still gets triggered, because Labour has said it will not block the will of the people, which is to leave the EU.
Once it is triggered, you are looking at some Black Swan to slow the process of leaving. It will happen in 2019. UK politics dictates that it will happen. Anybody getting in the way will be crushed by the voters. That is the practical situation.
Stopping Article 50 is based on pie on the sky wishes. Delaying its implementation, likewise.
Possible legal outcomes are one thing. The practical politics of it, quite another. People had a chance to stop Brexit. That ended on 23rd June, when they lost the argument with the voters.
But what Brexit means was not decided by the referendum.
No. But what was decided was Brexit. We're going out.
Yes, but then we get onto defining what 'out' means.
For many Brexiters, 'out' means no EEA, no payments to the EU (after all, the NHS needs all that money) and for the UK to be dragged halfway across the Atlantic.
To other Brexiters, 'out' means being part of the EEA and many other organisations, including payments to the hated EU.
Thee two views are irreconcilable.
Nope. They are both reconciled by the fact we would no longer be part of the EU.
Politically, all the UK Government needs to do is demonstrate a net sovereignty improvement over Cameron's deal that they can then sell to the voters.
Easy peasy, blue passports should do it then?
Jokes aside, blue passports are an item that Hannan strongly suggested to Cameron that he make part of his renegotiation.
It sounds silly, but symbols matter. Whilst costing very little it would have been a potent symbol to voters that the UK was no longer part of ever closer union.
Jeez, what a narcissistic knob the disgraced Liam Fox is
So, what are the current batch of civil servants getting up to? Well, over in the Department for International Trade, Mr S understands that reading is high on the agenda. Word reaches Steerpike that Liam Fox has instructed his civil servants to read Rising Tides: Facing the Challenges of a New Era — a book that aims to explain ‘how to meet the challenge of the new global reality’. And which bright spark is the author of the tome? A man by the name of… Liam Fox. Well, that’s one way to increase book sales.
Mr. Jessop, not my forte, but isn't gravity one of the four basic forces in the universe?
Mr. Eagles, here and there? He stomped around Italy for over a decade. He had the most audacious march in history, the most devastating ambush in history and the most crushing battlefield victory in history.
Comments
For many Brexiters, 'out' means no EEA, no payments to the EU (after all, the NHS needs all that money) and for the UK to be dragged halfway across the Atlantic.
To other Brexiters, 'out' means being part of the EEA and many other organisations, including payments to the hated EU.
Thee two views are irreconcilable.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/798519600413601792
Those worries are hardly being assuaged by a government that appears to be approaching Brownian levels of inertia and incompetence, concerns all the more heightened by the imbeciles in opposition.
That said the letter is nauseating and personally I'd rather stab my bollocks with a rusty scalpel than be described as one of the 48.
Politically, all the UK Government needs to do is demonstrate a net sovereignty improvement over Cameron's deal that they can then sell to the voters.
Whether it is amendable in practice depends on politics rather than procedure. But even there, it wouldn't be sustainable to call a general election if the Bill's one clause:
(1) The Secretary of State shall have the authority to notify the European Council of the United Kingdom's intention to withdraw from the EU as required by Article 50 of the TEU.
Were amended to add, for example, "... subject to the prior assent of the House of Commons". The extent to which the government could use threats to prevent amendment would depend on how justifiable the amendments would look to the public.
One kills off UKIP. The other allows them to scream betrayal in marginal constituencies led by a man who has the ear of the world's most powerful leader.
What would you do?
Selling any deal where we remain in some EU or European institutions - and especially pay into it - will be really difficult. Perhaps impossibly so.
It's a mess, and I don't see any easy solutions. I daresay you do, but you're not being realistic IMO.
@BBCPhilipSim: SNP ask what the Tories really want from Brexit. Tories ask what SNP really want from Brexit. Now an SNP MSP asks what Labour really want...
I wanna really, really, really wanna zigazig ah"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37981840
Somewhat different to what SK Baker drew on his 2015 railway atlas, but he had a good enough guess!
Long grass?
V interesting....
In last nights speech May seemed to think bribing Nissan to stay in Sunderland and opening a centre to repair and maintain US built F-35 aircraft in North Wales was evidence of an industrial strategy so I don't think we should expect any deep thinking from her on this matter.
Are we really supposed to go on like this until March next year and beyond? Being PM is a lot harder than David Cameron made it look.
Cameron and Osborne forbidden *any* preparatory work by the Civil Service was a serious dereliction of duty.
Obama: Iowa Hillary, I won there despite it being white as snow. Because I actually went there, and I'm good at this stuff.
Trump: If it was based on popular vote, I'd have made a real effort in Florida.
There will be controls on low skilled immigration
There will payments to the EU
There will be largely free access to the single market
None of that has any effect on liberals by the way. We used to just roll our eyes and get on with whatever we were doing. These days I think we need to fight back and make it clearer that we won't be bullied into submission.
Should have listened to Dave and George and voted Remain.
Voting to Leave is liking Carthage declaring war on Rome, you're asking a humiliating defeat, especially if your leaders like Hannibal and Mrs May are a bit crap
May I propose Dave-o-Max?
REMAIN 48%
Smith 38%
Cameron and Osborne could have spent 2 years having the civil service prepare for an EEA Brexit and then their successors could have ripped that up in their first week in office because they didn't like the lack of control of immigration that resulted in.
I have some sympathy for May in that respect but it is wearing a tad thin...
US POTUS protestors didn't vote. What a surprise.
Seems they didn't listen.
Obama says:"Right outside the door of the Treaty Room, so that I see it every day - including on weekends when I'm going into that office to watch a basketball game - the primary image I see is a bust of Winston Churchill," he said.
"It's there voluntarily because I can do anything on the second floor. I love the guy."
In what way does he *love* the guy, on the floor he can do *anything* on?
Lao-Tzu allegedly said that "A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step".
So let it be with Brexit. It is now past time those kitten heels got walking.
After Donald Trump’s election as president, Pamela Ramsey Taylor, director of the Clay County Development Corp., took to Facebook to comment on the upcoming shift from Obama to Melania Trump, reportedly writing: “It will be so refreshing to have a classy, beautiful, dignified First Lady back in the White House. I’m tired of seeing a Ape in heels.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2016/11/14/ape-in-heels-w-va-officials-under-fire-after-comments-about-michelle-obama/?postshare=1241479225376765&tid=ss_tw
So, what are the current batch of civil servants getting up to? Well, over in the Department for International Trade, Mr S understands that reading is high on the agenda. Word reaches Steerpike that Liam Fox has instructed his civil servants to read Rising Tides: Facing the Challenges of a New Era — a book that aims to explain ‘how to meet the challenge of the new global reality’. And which bright spark is the author of the tome? A man by the name of… Liam Fox. Well, that’s one way to increase book sales.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/11/liam-fox-throws-book-civil-servants/
But I think it's important to remember that the real negotiations happen with the countries. The EU doesn't get a vote.
Really, the question is can we cut a deal with the Spanish, the French, the Italians, the Germans and the Dutch? None of those countries wants to reach into their pockets if they can possibly avoid it. So, I'd say yes we can.
http://phys.org/news/2016-11-theory-gravity-dark.html
If right, it may solve some of the problems facing physics. And probably create new ones at the same time ...
All of the information in this book is open-sourced and readily available for anyone with a computer and a search engine. In fact, anyone with an interest in any of these subjects could have written this book; I hope I have saved some people the trouble.
A veritable one man aggregator.
His version of the Leadsomesque 'as a mother' is 'as a doctor'.
If the government doesn't win in the Supreme Court, I don't expect to see the Article 50 Bill held up long in the House of Commons. Would the House of Lords seek to stall it? That doesn't look anything like a 40% chance to me, given the public pronouncements so far.
That said, I expect Theresa May would welcome additional time to prepare for the two year negotiation period. So maybe she will be dragging her kitten heels behind the scenes.
Winning a battle here and there is a bit like winning an F1 Grand Prix.
Wars are like F1 championships, they are what the true greats are judged on.
Particularly on mahoosive rockets.
Some research into the properties of oxygen and helium at low temperatures would be handy mind
1) When/if the Article 50 bill is passed in the Commons
2) How large the majority approving Article 50 in the Commons is.
It sounds silly, but symbols matter. Whilst costing very little it would have been a potent symbol to voters that the UK was no longer part of ever closer union.
You forget: only 48% of voters were satisfied with Cameron's deal, which was supposed to be even better than the status quo.
Which is not the same as saying Liam Fox isn't a narcissistic knob, of course.
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/798564477033738242
Mr. Eagles, here and there? He stomped around Italy for over a decade. He had the most audacious march in history, the most devastating ambush in history and the most crushing battlefield victory in history.