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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After his Strictly successes it’s hard to imagine Ed Balls not

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  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448

    I've got tickets to the Strictly Blackpool next Saturday.

    Good news. If you can't keep voting for Balls (cause your in Blackpool) we might just get rid of him!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270

    We need a poll to find out who the hell is voting to keep Ed in.. Its ludicrous. He was the worst dancer by a LONG way.

    As long as Ed's on Strictly, we know exactly where he is, and exactly what he's doing. Which is not f*cking up the country.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,333
    Freggles said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Now Attenborough with Planet Earth 2. When the BBC turns it on, it turns it on.

    FFS, forget Strictly. That start to Planet Earth 2 was arguably the most astonishing piece of wildlife footage ever shot.....
    Agreed. It's astonishing.
    It's things like Planet Earth that make me think people who reckon the BBC would be better privatised are literally deluded
    Netflix (via Sony TV) has just produced one of the greatest drama shows about the Monarchy that's ever been made. Why did the BBC not commission this show?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    Freggles said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Now Attenborough with Planet Earth 2. When the BBC turns it on, it turns it on.

    FFS, forget Strictly. That start to Planet Earth 2 was arguably the most astonishing piece of wildlife footage ever shot.....
    Agreed. It's astonishing.
    It's things like Planet Earth that make me think people who reckon the BBC would be better privatised are literally deluded
    Its dross like Eastenders, Strictly, The One Show which present a case for closure.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited November 2016
    Nail....hit...on...head...

    President Trump: How & Why...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLG9g7BcjKs

    Bloody racists...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,769
    MaxPB said:

    Freggles said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Now Attenborough with Planet Earth 2. When the BBC turns it on, it turns it on.

    FFS, forget Strictly. That start to Planet Earth 2 was arguably the most astonishing piece of wildlife footage ever shot.....
    Agreed. It's astonishing.
    It's things like Planet Earth that make me think people who reckon the BBC would be better privatised are literally deluded
    Netflix (via Sony TV) has just produced one of the greatest drama shows about the Monarchy that's ever been made. Why did the BBC not commission this show?
    Too commercial? Too expensive? Does it matter? Nope.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited November 2016
    The Crown was offered to the BBC first to "co-produce", but they said they couldn't afford it...too many posh lunches for Yentob, billions spent on a pointless relocation, 100's millions of a failed IT project, pissing about unwilling to close BBC3 before spending a load of money on rebranding, etc etc etc.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Just out of interest,

    On the basis of the publicly available info/polls, what odds should trump have been at the start of voting on the 8th Nov?

    I recon Nate silver was basically spot on with his probability distribution, so I'll go 11/4.

    Does anyone take a different view?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,001
    I have to say Ed Balls has never made me laugh before so credit to him. Don't forget though that the Tories made a big point of Miliband being one of Brown's backroom staff. Just imagine the baggage Balls would have to deal with though. I suspect as LOTO he would have focused even more on the deficit (his specialist subject) but I doubt he would have come up with a strategy to win an election. I suspect his command of detail would make him a tough opponent though.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,769

    The Crown was offered to the BBC first to "co-produce", but they said they couldn't afford it...too many posh lunches for Yentob, billions spent on a pointless relocation, 100's millions of a failed IT project, pissing about unwilling to close BBC3 before spending a load of money on rebranding, etc etc etc.

    Paying for the govts soft diplomacy in the world service is closer to the truth
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,333
    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Freggles said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Now Attenborough with Planet Earth 2. When the BBC turns it on, it turns it on.

    FFS, forget Strictly. That start to Planet Earth 2 was arguably the most astonishing piece of wildlife footage ever shot.....
    Agreed. It's astonishing.
    It's things like Planet Earth that make me think people who reckon the BBC would be better privatised are literally deluded
    Netflix (via Sony TV) has just produced one of the greatest drama shows about the Monarchy that's ever been made. Why did the BBC not commission this show?
    Too commercial? Too expensive? Does it matter? Nope.
    Of course it matters, simply the best TV show ever made about our Monarchy now sits behind a pay wall. It should be public programming, not just for those who can afford to pay for Netflix.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270

    The Crown was offered to the BBC first to "co-produce", but they said they couldn't afford it...too many posh lunches for Yentob, billions spent on a pointless relocation, 100's millions of a failed IT project, pissing about unwilling to close BBC3 before spending a load of money on rebranding, etc etc etc.

    If only they had a big money-spinning show they could sell around the world. One about cars, for example?

    Oh...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited November 2016
    Jonathan said:

    The Crown was offered to the BBC first to "co-produce", but they said they couldn't afford it...too many posh lunches for Yentob, billions spent on a pointless relocation, 100's millions of a failed IT project, pissing about unwilling to close BBC3 before spending a load of money on rebranding, etc etc etc.

    Paying for the govts soft diplomacy in the world service is closer to the truth
    Bollocks...the BBC have pissed billions up the wall and have an bloated management structure and unwilling to change. They keep saying they are having to cut staff and then we find they have hired even more staff.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,333

    The Crown was offered to the BBC first to "co-produce", but they said they couldn't afford it...too many posh lunches for Yentob, billions spent on a pointless relocation, 100's millions of a failed IT project, pissing about unwilling to close BBC3 before spending a load of money on rebranding, etc etc etc.

    Yes, I'd heard from a friend at SPTV that they offered it to the BBC and ITV, the former said no, the latter had their own project (Victoria).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited November 2016
    The BBC argument is so boring. They do some good stuff, they do some piss poor stuff. But HBO and now Netflix have raised the bar to another level.

    The Wire, Tits and Dragons, The Crown, House of Cards, Boardwalk Empire, etc etc etc

    There are things that the BBC used to be world reknown for that don't require you to hire out a whole Eastern European country e.g all those amazing sitcoms. Now bugger all of those. Citizen Khan FFS.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,963

    The Crown was offered to the BBC first to "co-produce", but they said they couldn't afford it...too many posh lunches for Yentob, billions spent on a pointless relocation, 100's millions of a failed IT project, pissing about unwilling to close BBC3 before spending a load of money on rebranding, etc etc etc.

    If only they had a big money-spinning show they could sell around the world. One about cars, for example?

    Oh...
    Or baking?

    Oh...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,923
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Who knows?
    But I would note that the polls, even the exit polls, failed to pick up the shift to the PP at the last Spanish election a week after Brexit, so polling errors have not solely benefited insurgents.

    The Tories weren't insurgents in 2015. The issue is how the local media treat any choice. Over here voting Tory was treated the same as killing babies, how does the Spanish media treat voting PP? If it's anything like here it will be the unfashionable choice just as voting Tory was in 2015, which would explain an understatement. Voting PVV is surely unfashionable, just as Brexit and Trump. I don't think that polls aren't picking up insurgencies, but picking up the choice that goes against the liberal media and "settles choice" is tough.
    That's fair comment, but I think the issue is mostly one of down weighting people who have historically not voted: from the rural poor this time in the US, and the denizens of Sunderland in the Brexit vote.

    The biggest impacts, therefore, happen when turnout is unexpectedly higher than previously.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Ed Balls is the best possibility for Labour since un-sliced bread. Corbyn can't cut it.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    Pong said:

    Just out of interest,

    On the basis of the publicly available info/polls, what odds should trump have been at the start of voting on the 8th Nov?

    I recon Nate silver was basically spot on with his probability distribution, so I'll go 11/4.

    Does anyone take a different view?


    Pong...I'm returning to lurker here...I'm so depressed by the world and the last thing I want to is to have some dialogue with some of the vile creatures that inhabit these waters. So enough quite frankly is enough for me.


    A case in point...our very own Trump narcissist, seanT, was bragging about having sex with a young girl a few weeks ago. The fact that he is a pathetic, middle aged man...you could only feel sorry for the girl having that sad piece of middle aged flab clambering on top of her. I hope he paid her enough.



    But....my vote will be for you as PbComer of the year. You are the epitome of this site...really intelligent, and a great tipster. And you do not get involved in the petty discussions and point scoring that I just engaged in.....


    So well done you...seriously....
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,333
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Who knows?
    But I would note that the polls, even the exit polls, failed to pick up the shift to the PP at the last Spanish election a week after Brexit, so polling errors have not solely benefited insurgents.

    The Tories weren't insurgents in 2015. The issue is how the local media treat any choice. Over here voting Tory was treated the same as killing babies, how does the Spanish media treat voting PP? If it's anything like here it will be the unfashionable choice just as voting Tory was in 2015, which would explain an understatement. Voting PVV is surely unfashionable, just as Brexit and Trump. I don't think that polls aren't picking up insurgencies, but picking up the choice that goes against the liberal media and "settles choice" is tough.
    That's fair comment, but I think the issue is mostly one of down weighting people who have historically not voted: from the rural poor this time in the US, and the denizens of Sunderland in the Brexit vote.

    The biggest impacts, therefore, happen when turnout is unexpectedly higher than previously.
    That wasn't true for the Tories or PP though. The question is whether PVV are more like Trump/Brexit or the Tories/PP.
  • It wasn't just Boris that boycotted the EU Foreign Minister emergency meeting tonight, France and Hungary stayed away as well to the fury of Germany and Brussels.

    What hope have the EU of surviving Brexit and Trump when their two principal military members walk away and Merkel lays down 'holier than thou' conditions on her dealings with Trump. Juncker's adds to the arrogance by saying he will 'tell' Trump how the EU works.

    The EU have to realise they have few cards to play while the UK with it's military strength and close ties with the US will get a much better hearing
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,333

    It wasn't just Boris that boycotted the EU Foreign Minister emergency meeting tonight, France and Hungary stayed away as well to the fury of Germany and Brussels.

    What hope have the EU of surviving Brexit and Trump when their two principal military members walk away and Merkel lays down 'holier than thou' conditions on her dealings with Trump. Juncker's adds to the arrogance by saying he will 'tell' Trump how the EU works.

    The EU have to realise they have few cards to play while the UK with it's military strength and close ties with the US will get a much better hearing

    If France have told the EU to do one then that's unusually grown up of them. Germany and Juncker can get f*****.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,230

    It wasn't just Boris that boycotted the EU Foreign Minister emergency meeting tonight, France and Hungary stayed away as well to the fury of Germany and Brussels.

    What hope have the EU of surviving Brexit and Trump when their two principal military members walk away and Merkel lays down 'holier than thou' conditions on her dealings with Trump. Juncker's adds to the arrogance by saying he will 'tell' Trump how the EU works.

    The EU have to realise they have few cards to play while the UK with it's military strength and close ties with the US will get a much better hearing

    God I am so glad we are leaving this group of prats. Delusional is simply too kind.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,923
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Who knows?
    But I would note that the polls, even the exit polls, failed to pick up the shift to the PP at the last Spanish election a week after Brexit, so polling errors have not solely benefited insurgents.

    The Tories weren't insurgents in 2015. The issue is how the local media treat any choice. Over here voting Tory was treated the same as killing babies, how does the Spanish media treat voting PP? If it's anything like here it will be the unfashionable choice just as voting Tory was in 2015, which would explain an understatement. Voting PVV is surely unfashionable, just as Brexit and Trump. I don't think that polls aren't picking up insurgencies, but picking up the choice that goes against the liberal media and "settles choice" is tough.
    That's fair comment, but I think the issue is mostly one of down weighting people who have historically not voted: from the rural poor this time in the US, and the denizens of Sunderland in the Brexit vote.

    The biggest impacts, therefore, happen when turnout is unexpectedly higher than previously.
    That wasn't true for the Tories or PP though. The question is whether PVV are more like Trump/Brexit or the Tories/PP.
    I've been thinking insurgent <-> establishment as the axis, but maybe its's fasionable <-> unfashionable?

    AfD has certainly outperformed in local elections in Germany.

    On the other hand, UKIP did not last year (or perhaps that was Miliband specific). The truth is that with few datapoints, and many country specific factors (like the Democrats picking Clinton), one probably should be wary of too much extrapolation.

    I've always said that - on my tombstone - I'd like "Beware of extrapolation from small datasets" written.
  • MaxPB said:

    It wasn't just Boris that boycotted the EU Foreign Minister emergency meeting tonight, France and Hungary stayed away as well to the fury of Germany and Brussels.

    What hope have the EU of surviving Brexit and Trump when their two principal military members walk away and Merkel lays down 'holier than thou' conditions on her dealings with Trump. Juncker's adds to the arrogance by saying he will 'tell' Trump how the EU works.

    The EU have to realise they have few cards to play while the UK with it's military strength and close ties with the US will get a much better hearing

    If France have told the EU to do one then that's unusually grown up of them. Germany and Juncker can get f*****.
    'If France have told the EU to do one'

    'unusually grown up of them'

    'Germany and Juncker can get f*****.'

    Marvellous stuff Sparky.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,230
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Who knows?
    But I would note that the polls, even the exit polls, failed to pick up the shift to the PP at the last Spanish election a week after Brexit, so polling errors have not solely benefited insurgents.

    The Tories weren't insurgents in 2015. The issue is how the local media treat any choice. Over here voting Tory was treated the same as killing babies, how does the Spanish media treat voting PP? If it's anything like here it will be the unfashionable choice just as voting Tory was in 2015, which would explain an understatement. Voting PVV is surely unfashionable, just as Brexit and Trump. I don't think that polls aren't picking up insurgencies, but picking up the choice that goes against the liberal media and "settles choice" is tough.
    That's fair comment, but I think the issue is mostly one of down weighting people who have historically not voted: from the rural poor this time in the US, and the denizens of Sunderland in the Brexit vote.

    The biggest impacts, therefore, happen when turnout is unexpectedly higher than previously.
    That wasn't true for the Tories or PP though. The question is whether PVV are more like Trump/Brexit or the Tories/PP.
    I've been thinking insurgent <-> establishment as the axis, but maybe its's fasionable <-> unfashionable?

    AfD has certainly outperformed in local elections in Germany.

    On the other hand, UKIP did not last year (or perhaps that was Miliband specific). The truth is that with few datapoints, and many country specific factors (like the Democrats picking Clinton), one probably should be wary of too much extrapolation.

    I've always said that - on my tombstone - I'd like "Beware of extrapolation from small datasets" written.
    Well it would certainly generate some speculation as to the cause of death. Not sure it quite matches "told you I was ill" though.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,750

    The BBC argument is so boring. They do some good stuff, they do some piss poor stuff. But HBO and now Netflix have raised the bar to another level.

    The Wire, Tits and Dragons, The Crown, House of Cards, Boardwalk Empire, etc etc etc

    There are things that the BBC used to be world reknown for that don't require you to hire out a whole Eastern European country e.g all those amazing sitcoms. Now bugger all of those. Citizen Khan FFS.

    I'll give the BBC credit for the Last Kingdom, which I've just watched. It didn't have budget of Tits and Dragons but it was extremely good.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,333
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Who knows?
    But I would note that the polls, even the exit polls, failed to pick up the shift to the PP at the last Spanish election a week after Brexit, so polling errors have not solely benefited insurgents.

    The Tories weren't insurgents in 2015. The issue is how the local media treat any choice. Over here voting Tory was treated the same as killing babies, how does the Spanish media treat voting PP? If it's anything like here it will be the unfashionable choice just as voting Tory was in 2015, which would explain an understatement. Voting PVV is surely unfashionable, just as Brexit and Trump. I don't think that polls aren't picking up insurgencies, but picking up the choice that goes against the liberal media and "settles choice" is tough.
    That's fair comment, but I think the issue is mostly one of down weighting people who have historically not voted: from the rural poor this time in the US, and the denizens of Sunderland in the Brexit vote.

    The biggest impacts, therefore, happen when turnout is unexpectedly higher than previously.
    That wasn't true for the Tories or PP though. The question is whether PVV are more like Trump/Brexit or the Tories/PP.
    I've been thinking insurgent <-> establishment as the axis, but maybe its's fasionable <-> unfashionable?

    AfD has certainly outperformed in local elections in Germany.

    On the other hand, UKIP did not last year (or perhaps that was Miliband specific). The truth is that with few datapoints, and many country specific factors (like the Democrats picking Clinton), one probably should be wary of too much extrapolation.

    I've always said that - on my tombstone - I'd like "Beware of extrapolation from small datasets" written.
    I personally think that any choice which is shut down by the media as "unacceptable", will outperform polling. The nasty right wing will always underperform in polls while its supporters are told by the media they are all scum on a daily basis.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,333
    edited November 2016

    MaxPB said:

    It wasn't just Boris that boycotted the EU Foreign Minister emergency meeting tonight, France and Hungary stayed away as well to the fury of Germany and Brussels.

    What hope have the EU of surviving Brexit and Trump when their two principal military members walk away and Merkel lays down 'holier than thou' conditions on her dealings with Trump. Juncker's adds to the arrogance by saying he will 'tell' Trump how the EU works.

    The EU have to realise they have few cards to play while the UK with it's military strength and close ties with the US will get a much better hearing

    If France have told the EU to do one then that's unusually grown up of them. Germany and Juncker can get f*****.
    'If France have told the EU to do one'

    'unusually grown up of them'

    'Germany and Juncker can get f*****.'

    Marvellous stuff Sparky.
    Going to post more fake news from twatter?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,923
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Who knows?
    But I would note that the polls, even the exit polls, failed to pick up the shift to the PP at the last Spanish election a week after Brexit, so polling errors have not solely benefited insurgents.

    The Tories weren't insurgents in 2015. The issue is how the local media treat any choice. Over here voting Tory was treated the same as killing babies, how does the Spanish media treat voting PP? If it's anything like here it will be the unfashionable choice just as voting Tory was in 2015, which would explain an understatement. Voting PVV is surely unfashionable, just as Brexit and Trump. I don't think that polls aren't picking up insurgencies, but picking up the choice that goes against the liberal media and "settles choice" is tough.
    That's fair comment, but I think the issue is mostly one of down weighting people who have historically not voted: from the rural poor this time in the US, and the denizens of Sunderland in the Brexit vote.

    The biggest impacts, therefore, happen when turnout is unexpectedly higher than previously.
    That wasn't true for the Tories or PP though. The question is whether PVV are more like Trump/Brexit or the Tories/PP.
    I've been thinking insurgent <-> establishment as the axis, but maybe its's fasionable <-> unfashionable?

    AfD has certainly outperformed in local elections in Germany.

    On the other hand, UKIP did not last year (or perhaps that was Miliband specific). The truth is that with few datapoints, and many country specific factors (like the Democrats picking Clinton), one probably should be wary of too much extrapolation.

    I've always said that - on my tombstone - I'd like "Beware of extrapolation from small datasets" written.
    Well it would certainly generate some speculation as to the cause of death. Not sure it quite matches "told you I was ill" though.
    My point is that human beings love stories, and want to hang a narrative off a set of facts, when the truth (in America) is probably simply that the Democrats nominated an appallingly weak candidate.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    It wasn't just Boris that boycotted the EU Foreign Minister emergency meeting tonight, France and Hungary stayed away as well to the fury of Germany and Brussels.

    What hope have the EU of surviving Brexit and Trump when their two principal military members walk away and Merkel lays down 'holier than thou' conditions on her dealings with Trump. Juncker's adds to the arrogance by saying he will 'tell' Trump how the EU works.

    The EU have to realise they have few cards to play while the UK with it's military strength and close ties with the US will get a much better hearing

    If France have told the EU to do one then that's unusually grown up of them. Germany and Juncker can get f*****.
    'If France have told the EU to do one'

    'unusually grown up of them'

    'Germany and Juncker can get f*****.'

    Marvellous stuff Sparky.
    Going to post more fake nrws from twatter?
    Touchy..
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,333

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    It wasn't just Boris that boycotted the EU Foreign Minister emergency meeting tonight, France and Hungary stayed away as well to the fury of Germany and Brussels.

    What hope have the EU of surviving Brexit and Trump when their two principal military members walk away and Merkel lays down 'holier than thou' conditions on her dealings with Trump. Juncker's adds to the arrogance by saying he will 'tell' Trump how the EU works.

    The EU have to realise they have few cards to play while the UK with it's military strength and close ties with the US will get a much better hearing

    If France have told the EU to do one then that's unusually grown up of them. Germany and Juncker can get f*****.
    'If France have told the EU to do one'

    'unusually grown up of them'

    'Germany and Juncker can get f*****.'

    Marvellous stuff Sparky.
    Going to post more fake nrws from twatter?
    Touchy..
    No denial then? Post truth politics, indeed.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,750
    Pong said:

    Just out of interest,

    On the basis of the publicly available info/polls, what odds should trump have been at the start of voting on the 8th Nov?

    I recon Nate silver was basically spot on with his probability distribution, so I'll go 11/4.

    Does anyone take a different view?

    3-2. I bet on him at 4-1 with Paddy Power (i had a much earlier bet at 3-2). I wrote down my reasons and thought Hillary would win the ECV 279-259, and so concluded his odds were way too long.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    It wasn't just Boris that boycotted the EU Foreign Minister emergency meeting tonight, France and Hungary stayed away as well to the fury of Germany and Brussels.

    What hope have the EU of surviving Brexit and Trump when their two principal military members walk away and Merkel lays down 'holier than thou' conditions on her dealings with Trump. Juncker's adds to the arrogance by saying he will 'tell' Trump how the EU works.

    The EU have to realise they have few cards to play while the UK with it's military strength and close ties with the US will get a much better hearing

    If France have told the EU to do one then that's unusually grown up of them. Germany and Juncker can get f*****.
    'If France have told the EU to do one'

    'unusually grown up of them'

    'Germany and Juncker can get f*****.'

    Marvellous stuff Sparky.
    Going to post more fake nrws from twatter?
    Touchy..
    No denial then? Post truth politics, indeed.
    Touchy..
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Who knows?
    But I would note that the polls, even the exit polls, failed to pick up the shift to the PP at the last Spanish election a week after Brexit, so polling errors have not solely benefited insurgents.

    The Tories weren't insurgents in 2015. The issue is how the local media treat any choice. Over here voting Tory was treated the same as killing babies, how does the Spanish media treat voting PP? If it's anything like here it will be the unfashionable choice just as voting Tory was in 2015, which would explain an understatement. Voting PVV is surely unfashionable, just as Brexit and Trump. I don't think that polls aren't picking up insurgencies, but picking up the choice that goes against the liberal media and "settles choice" is tough.
    That's fair comment, but I think the issue is mostly one of down weighting people who have historically not voted: from the rural poor this time in the US, and the denizens of Sunderland in the Brexit vote.

    The biggest impacts, therefore, happen when turnout is unexpectedly higher than previously.
    That wasn't true for the Tories or PP though. The question is whether PVV are more like Trump/Brexit or the Tories/PP.
    I've been thinking insurgent <-> establishment as the axis, but maybe its's fasionable <-> unfashionable?

    AfD has certainly outperformed in local elections in Germany.

    On the other hand, UKIP did not last year (or perhaps that was Miliband specific). The truth is that with few datapoints, and many country specific factors (like the Democrats picking Clinton), one probably should be wary of too much extrapolation.

    I've always said that - on my tombstone - I'd like "Beware of extrapolation from small datasets" written.
    Well it would certainly generate some speculation as to the cause of death. Not sure it quite matches "told you I was ill" though.
    My point is that human beings love stories, and want to hang a narrative off a set of facts, when the truth (in America) is probably simply that the Democrats nominated an appallingly weak candidate.

    And if you tried to point that out prior to the election...

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,333

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    It wasn't just Boris that boycotted the EU Foreign Minister emergency meeting tonight, France and Hungary stayed away as well to the fury of Germany and Brussels.

    What hope have the EU of surviving Brexit and Trump when their two principal military members walk away and Merkel lays down 'holier than thou' conditions on her dealings with Trump. Juncker's adds to the arrogance by saying he will 'tell' Trump how the EU works.

    The EU have to realise they have few cards to play while the UK with it's military strength and close ties with the US will get a much better hearing

    If France have told the EU to do one then that's unusually grown up of them. Germany and Juncker can get f*****.
    'If France have told the EU to do one'

    'unusually grown up of them'

    'Germany and Juncker can get f*****.'

    Marvellous stuff Sparky.
    Going to post more fake nrws from twatter?
    Touchy..
    No denial then? Post truth politics, indeed.
    Touchy..
    Gosh you're a dickhead. When Scotland votes to get bummed by England for another 300 years, remember this moment and how useless you are for your country and how pointless your existence is.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,012

    The BBC argument is so boring. They do some good stuff, they do some piss poor stuff. But HBO and now Netflix have raised the bar to another level.

    The Wire, Tits and Dragons, The Crown, House of Cards, Boardwalk Empire, etc etc etc

    There are things that the BBC used to be world reknown for that don't require you to hire out a whole Eastern European country e.g all those amazing sitcoms. Now bugger all of those. Citizen Khan FFS.

    Westworld (HBO) is fantastic too, I also really liked True Detective, even the second season.

    I think the best drama is mostly from the US now.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,384
    edited November 2016
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    It wasn't just Boris that boycotted the EU Foreign Minister emergency meeting tonight, France and Hungary stayed away as well to the fury of Germany and Brussels.

    What hope have the EU of surviving Brexit and Trump when their two principal military members walk away and Merkel lays down 'holier than thou' conditions on her dealings with Trump. Juncker's adds to the arrogance by saying he will 'tell' Trump how the EU works.

    The EU have to realise they have few cards to play while the UK with it's military strength and close ties with the US will get a much better hearing

    If France have told the EU to do one then that's unusually grown up of them. Germany and Juncker can get f*****.
    'If France have told the EU to do one'

    'unusually grown up of them'

    'Germany and Juncker can get f*****.'

    Marvellous stuff Sparky.
    Going to post more fake nrws from twatter?
    Touchy..
    No denial then? Post truth politics, indeed.
    Touchy..
    Gosh you're a dickhead. When Scotland votes to get bummed by England for another 300 years, remember this moment and how useless you are for your country and how pointless your existence is.
    Tell me now, do you take a drink of an evening at all? Because your punchy, wee man at a keyboard quotient certainly increases as the hour hand moves on.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @afneil: Trump chooses RNC boss Reince Priebus as chief of staff. So much for "draining the swamp" of the Washington establishment.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    glw said:

    The BBC argument is so boring. They do some good stuff, they do some piss poor stuff. But HBO and now Netflix have raised the bar to another level.

    The Wire, Tits and Dragons, The Crown, House of Cards, Boardwalk Empire, etc etc etc

    There are things that the BBC used to be world reknown for that don't require you to hire out a whole Eastern European country e.g all those amazing sitcoms. Now bugger all of those. Citizen Khan FFS.

    Westworld (HBO) is fantastic too, I also really liked True Detective, even the second season.

    I think the best drama is mostly from the US now.
    Loving Westworld.

    True Detective 1 - outstanding. 2? Nowhere near, sadly.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    Scott_P said:

    @afneil: Trump chooses RNC boss Reince Priebus as chief of staff. So much for "draining the swamp" of the Washington establishment.


    Bridge-building. He wants to get stuff through Congress, clearly.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited November 2016
    glw said:

    The BBC argument is so boring. They do some good stuff, they do some piss poor stuff. But HBO and now Netflix have raised the bar to another level.

    The Wire, Tits and Dragons, The Crown, House of Cards, Boardwalk Empire, etc etc etc

    There are things that the BBC used to be world reknown for that don't require you to hire out a whole Eastern European country e.g all those amazing sitcoms. Now bugger all of those. Citizen Khan FFS.

    Westworld (HBO) is fantastic too, I also really liked True Detective, even the second season.

    I think the best drama is mostly from the US now.
    Nothing much seems to happen in Westworld. Each episode seems almost identical. I was only half paying attention to it so might need to rewatch all of the episodes. However, everyone I know who watches it has said similar.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited November 2016
    glw said:

    The BBC argument is so boring. They do some good stuff, they do some piss poor stuff. But HBO and now Netflix have raised the bar to another level.

    The Wire, Tits and Dragons, The Crown, House of Cards, Boardwalk Empire, etc etc etc

    There are things that the BBC used to be world reknown for that don't require you to hire out a whole Eastern European country e.g all those amazing sitcoms. Now bugger all of those. Citizen Khan FFS.

    Westworld (HBO) is fantastic too, I also really liked True Detective, even the second season.

    I think the best drama is mostly from the US now.
    I personally watch little UK drama these days from any of the channels. HBO / Netflix US stuff is generally far superior. Yes some of them have absolutely massive budgets, but not all.

    True Detective going from having Matthew McConaughey and Woody Harrelson in the star roles kinda hard not to be going down hill after that!
  • glwglw Posts: 10,012
    rcs1000 said:

    My point is that human beings love stories, and want to hang a narrative off a set of facts, when the truth (in America) is probably simply that the Democrats nominated an appallingly weak candidate.

    There's plenty of food for thought on this issue in Dan Carlin's latest Common Sense podcast. It's well worth a listen, as is the Revenge of the Gangrenous Finger episode he recorded after Brexit. He's been talking about this stuff for years and years, and now it's coming true.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    It wasn't just Boris that boycotted the EU Foreign Minister emergency meeting tonight, France and Hungary stayed away as well to the fury of Germany and Brussels.

    What hope have the EU of surviving Brexit and Trump when their two principal military members walk away and Merkel lays down 'holier than thou' conditions on her dealings with Trump. Juncker's adds to the arrogance by saying he will 'tell' Trump how the EU works.

    The EU have to realise they have few cards to play while the UK with it's military strength and close ties with the US will get a much better hearing

    If France have told the EU to do one then that's unusually grown up of them. Germany and Juncker can get f*****.
    'If France have told the EU to do one'

    'unusually grown up of them'

    'Germany and Juncker can get f*****.'

    Marvellous stuff Sparky.
    Going to post more fake nrws from twatter?
    Touchy..
    Caracas, California :lol:
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,230
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Who knows?
    But I would note that the polls, even the exit polls, failed to pick up the shift to the PP at the last Spanish election a week after Brexit, so polling errors have not solely benefited insurgents.

    The Tories weren't insurgents in 2015. The issue is how the local media treat any choice. Over here voting Tory was treated the same as killing babies, how does the Spanish media treat voting PP? If it's anything like here it will be the unfashionable choice just as voting Tory was in 2015, which would explain an understatement. Voting PVV is surely unfashionable, just as Brexit and Trump. I don't think that polls aren't picking up insurgencies, but picking up the choice that goes against the liberal media and "settles choice" is tough.
    That's fair comment, but I think the issue is mostly one of down weighting people who have historically not voted: from the rural poor this time in the US, and the denizens of Sunderland in the Brexit vote.

    The biggest impacts, therefore, happen when turnout is unexpectedly higher than previously.
    That wasn't true for the Tories or PP though. The question is whether PVV are more like Trump/Brexit or the Tories/PP.
    I've been thinking insurgent <-> establishment as the axis, but maybe its's fasionable <-> unfashionable?

    AfD has certainly outperformed in local elections in Germany.

    On the other hand, UKIP did not last year (or perhaps that was Miliband specific). The truth is that with few datapoints, and many country specific factors (like the Democrats picking Clinton), one probably should be wary of too much extrapolation.

    I've always said that - on my tombstone - I'd like "Beware of extrapolation from small datasets" written.

    Well it would certainly generate some speculation as to the cause of death. Not sure it quite matches "told you I was ill" though.
    My point is that human beings love stories, and want to hang a narrative off a set of facts, when the truth (in America) is probably simply that the Democrats nominated an appallingly weak candidate.
    Indeed. Post hoc ergo propter hoc. A classic fallacy. But it does seem that there is an anti-establishment tendency across the west as we deal with the detritus and consequences of 2007.
  • MP_SE said:

    glw said:

    The BBC argument is so boring. They do some good stuff, they do some piss poor stuff. But HBO and now Netflix have raised the bar to another level.

    The Wire, Tits and Dragons, The Crown, House of Cards, Boardwalk Empire, etc etc etc

    There are things that the BBC used to be world reknown for that don't require you to hire out a whole Eastern European country e.g all those amazing sitcoms. Now bugger all of those. Citizen Khan FFS.

    Westworld (HBO) is fantastic too, I also really liked True Detective, even the second season.

    I think the best drama is mostly from the US now.
    Nothing much seems to happen in Westworld. Each episode seems almost identical. I was only half paying attention to it so might need to rewatch all of the episodes. However, everyone I know who watches it has said similar.
    Movie version with Yul Brynner is the best :)
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    MP_SE said:

    glw said:

    The BBC argument is so boring. They do some good stuff, they do some piss poor stuff. But HBO and now Netflix have raised the bar to another level.

    The Wire, Tits and Dragons, The Crown, House of Cards, Boardwalk Empire, etc etc etc

    There are things that the BBC used to be world reknown for that don't require you to hire out a whole Eastern European country e.g all those amazing sitcoms. Now bugger all of those. Citizen Khan FFS.

    Westworld (HBO) is fantastic too, I also really liked True Detective, even the second season.

    I think the best drama is mostly from the US now.
    Nothing much seems to happen in Westworld. Each episode seems almost identical. I was only half paying attention to it so might need to rewatch all of the episodes. However, everyone I know who watches it has said similar.
    Movie version with Yul Brynner is the best :)
    YES.

    What really surprises me is everyone I know who watches it has not seen the movie.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    https://twitter.com/UK__News/status/797912508988170240
    Is this good or bad; what form has this guy got?
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    Seems air fares will be going up and airlines will be going down (the pan).

    Who'd a thunk it?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/11/13/british-airlines-band-together-to-fight-for-continued-access-to/

  • glwglw Posts: 10,012

    I personally watch little UK drama these days from any of the channels. HBO / Netflix US stuff is generally far superior. Yes some of them have absolutely massive budgets, but not all.

    Yes it's not only the money, they are willing to take more risks and are generally less formulaic than most network television.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,923
    On the subject of American TV, I'm loving Amazon's Red Oaks.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Seems air fares will be going up and airlines will be going down (the pan).

    Who'd a thunk it?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/11/13/british-airlines-band-together-to-fight-for-continued-access-to/

    Perhaps we won't need that third runway after all.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,116
    MikeK said:

    https://twitter.com/UK__News/status/797912508988170240
    Is this good or bad; what form has this guy got?

    Seems to be reasonably sane, if his Wikipedia profile is anything to go by...

    http://www.politico.com/story/2014/10/reince-priebus-gop-platform-111552

    seems to indicate he's in the middle of the Republican party establishment.

    So this might be Trump reaching out to the RNC.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,923
    MikeK said:

    https://twitter.com/UK__News/status/797912508988170240
    Is this good or bad; what form has this guy got?

    He's the ultimate Washington insider. I like him, which you may or may not, take as a positive.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,116
    edited November 2016
    MP_SE said:

    MP_SE said:

    glw said:

    The BBC argument is so boring. They do some good stuff, they do some piss poor stuff. But HBO and now Netflix have raised the bar to another level.

    The Wire, Tits and Dragons, The Crown, House of Cards, Boardwalk Empire, etc etc etc

    There are things that the BBC used to be world reknown for that don't require you to hire out a whole Eastern European country e.g all those amazing sitcoms. Now bugger all of those. Citizen Khan FFS.

    Westworld (HBO) is fantastic too, I also really liked True Detective, even the second season.

    I think the best drama is mostly from the US now.
    Nothing much seems to happen in Westworld. Each episode seems almost identical. I was only half paying attention to it so might need to rewatch all of the episodes. However, everyone I know who watches it has said similar.
    Movie version with Yul Brynner is the best :)
    YES.

    What really surprises me is everyone I know who watches it has not seen the movie.
    Most don't even know the movie exists

    The Expanse (on Netflix) is pretty awesome SciFi, by the way
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of American TV, I'm loving Amazon's Red Oaks.

    If you have got Amazon Prime I recommend The Man in the High Castle.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    MikeK said:

    https://twitter.com/UK__News/status/797912508988170240
    Is this good or bad; what form has this guy got?

    Seems to be reasonably sane, if his Wikipedia profile is anything to go by...

    http://www.politico.com/story/2014/10/reince-priebus-gop-platform-111552

    seems to indicate he's in the middle of the Republican party establishment.

    So this might be Trump reaching out to the RNC.
    What a sellout to the Washington machine.

    My teenage niece had it right with her reaction to Trump : "Well at least now we are no longer the stupidest voters on the planet".
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,923
    MP_SE said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of American TV, I'm loving Amazon's Red Oaks.

    If you have got Amazon Prime I recommend The Man in the High Castle.
    I do, but that looks a bit serious for me. :)
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    MikeK said:

    https://twitter.com/UK__News/status/797912508988170240
    Is this good or bad; what form has this guy got?

    Sensible. Trump has to have Washington insiders so a smart move.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited November 2016
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MP_SE said:

    glw said:

    The BBC argument is so boring. They do some good stuff, they do some piss poor stuff. But HBO and now Netflix have raised the bar to another level.

    The Wire, Tits and Dragons, The Crown, House of Cards, Boardwalk Empire, etc etc etc

    There are things that the BBC used to be world reknown for that don't require you to hire out a whole Eastern European country e.g all those amazing sitcoms. Now bugger all of those. Citizen Khan FFS.

    Westworld (HBO) is fantastic too, I also really liked True Detective, even the second season.

    I think the best drama is mostly from the US now.
    Nothing much seems to happen in Westworld. Each episode seems almost identical. I was only half paying attention to it so might need to rewatch all of the episodes. However, everyone I know who watches it has said similar.
    They are not paying attention. It's a classic quest motif together with a number of sub-plots
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,116
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Who knows?
    But I would note that the polls, even the exit polls, failed to pick up the shift to the PP at the last Spanish election a week after Brexit, so polling errors have not solely benefited insurgents.

    The Tories weren't insurgents in 2015. The issue is how the local media treat any choice. Over here voting Tory was treated the same as killing babies, how does the Spanish media treat voting PP? If it's anything like here it will be the unfashionable choice just as voting Tory was in 2015, which would explain an understatement. Voting PVV is surely unfashionable, just as Brexit and Trump. I don't think that polls aren't picking up insurgencies, but picking up the choice that goes against the liberal media and "settles choice" is tough.
    That's fair comment, but I think the issue is mostly one of down weighting people who have historically not voted: from the rural poor this time in the US, and the denizens of Sunderland in the Brexit vote.

    The biggest impacts, therefore, happen when turnout is unexpectedly higher than previously.
    That wasn't true for the Tories or PP though. The question is whether PVV are more like Trump/Brexit or the Tories/PP.
    I've been thinking insurgent <-> establishment as the axis, but maybe its's fasionable <-> unfashionable?

    AfD has certainly outperformed in local elections in Germany.

    On the other hand, UKIP did not last year (or perhaps that was Miliband specific). The truth is that with few datapoints, and many country specific factors (like the Democrats picking Clinton), one probably should be wary of too much extrapolation.

    I've always said that - on my tombstone - I'd like "Beware of extrapolation from small datasets" written.

    Well it would certainly generate some speculation as to the cause of death. Not sure it quite matches "told you I was ill" though.
    My point is that human beings love stories, and want to hang a narrative off a set of facts, when the truth (in America) is probably simply that the Democrats nominated an appallingly weak candidate.
    Indeed. Post hoc ergo propter hoc. A classic fallacy. But it does seem that there is an anti-establishment tendency across the west as we deal with the detritus and consequences of 2007.
    A weak and very establishment candidate. Someone who gives 6 figure priced speeches to Goldman Sachs as the Dem Party candidate? I mean, really?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited November 2016
    MP_SE said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of American TV, I'm loving Amazon's Red Oaks.

    If you have got Amazon Prime I recommend The Man in the High Castle.
    Is that the one about if Donald Trump Adolf Hitler had won?
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    felix said:

    nielh said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Telegraph: Exclusive: Nigel Farage reveals Donald Trump's team has 'reservations' about Theresa May's Government. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwzYmwtTA

    bye bye Boris?
    Its just a shitty photoshoot. Farage is nothing more than a tourist as he admits himself and he's trying to milk it for everything it is worth.
    Farage changed history, but in the manner of an arsonist or one of Eric Pickles shitty armchair auditors.
    He doesn't have any interest in actually running anything or being a serious politician.
    Indeed. Farage failed SEVEN times to become an MP
    Maybe he should try the LDs :)
    hes a white male. He'll go down well there.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    MP_SE said:

    MP_SE said:

    glw said:

    The BBC argument is so boring. They do some good stuff, they do some piss poor stuff. But HBO and now Netflix have raised the bar to another level.

    The Wire, Tits and Dragons, The Crown, House of Cards, Boardwalk Empire, etc etc etc

    There are things that the BBC used to be world reknown for that don't require you to hire out a whole Eastern European country e.g all those amazing sitcoms. Now bugger all of those. Citizen Khan FFS.

    Westworld (HBO) is fantastic too, I also really liked True Detective, even the second season.

    I think the best drama is mostly from the US now.
    Nothing much seems to happen in Westworld. Each episode seems almost identical. I was only half paying attention to it so might need to rewatch all of the episodes. However, everyone I know who watches it has said similar.
    Movie version with Yul Brynner is the best :)
    YES.

    What really surprises me is everyone I know who watches it has not seen the movie.
    Most don't even know the movie exists

    The Expanse (on Netflix) is pretty awesome SciFi, by the way
    Thanks for the suggestion. I will give it a watch tonight.

    Netflix tv series seem really good. Sadly my only experience of one of their movies was ARQ which was painful.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,116

    It wasn't just Boris that boycotted the EU Foreign Minister emergency meeting tonight, France and Hungary stayed away as well to the fury of Germany and Brussels.

    What hope have the EU of surviving Brexit and Trump when their two principal military members walk away and Merkel lays down 'holier than thou' conditions on her dealings with Trump. Juncker's adds to the arrogance by saying he will 'tell' Trump how the EU works.

    The EU have to realise they have few cards to play while the UK with it's military strength and close ties with the US will get a much better hearing

    It's utterly stupid to get in an insulting match with Trump now.

    Remember the rule "Don't mud wrestle with a pig. You will get dirty and the pig will enjoy it"?

    All it will achieve is virtue signalling....
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    tyson said:

    Pong said:

    Just out of interest,

    On the basis of the publicly available info/polls, what odds should trump have been at the start of voting on the 8th Nov?

    I recon Nate silver was basically spot on with his probability distribution, so I'll go 11/4.

    Does anyone take a different view?


    Pong...I'm returning to lurker here...I'm so depressed by the world and the last thing I want to is to have some dialogue with some of the vile creatures that inhabit these waters. So enough quite frankly is enough for me.


    A case in point...our very own Trump narcissist, seanT, was bragging about having sex with a young girl a few weeks ago. The fact that he is a pathetic, middle aged man...you could only feel sorry for the girl having that sad piece of middle aged flab clambering on top of her. I hope he paid her enough.



    But....my vote will be for you as PbComer of the year. You are the epitome of this site...really intelligent, and a great tipster. And you do not get involved in the petty discussions and point scoring that I just engaged in.....


    So well done you...seriously....
    lol.

    Thanks, i do try. ;)
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113

    Seems air fares will be going up and airlines will be going down (the pan).

    Who'd a thunk it?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/11/13/british-airlines-band-together-to-fight-for-continued-access-to/

    Perhaps we won't need that third runway after all.

    Not convinced we ever did.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,116
    MP_SE said:

    MP_SE said:

    MP_SE said:

    glw said:

    The BBC argument is so boring. They do some good stuff, they do some piss poor stuff. But HBO and now Netflix have raised the bar to another level.

    The Wire, Tits and Dragons, The Crown, House of Cards, Boardwalk Empire, etc etc etc

    There are things that the BBC used to be world reknown for that don't require you to hire out a whole Eastern European country e.g all those amazing sitcoms. Now bugger all of those. Citizen Khan FFS.

    Westworld (HBO) is fantastic too, I also really liked True Detective, even the second season.

    I think the best drama is mostly from the US now.
    Nothing much seems to happen in Westworld. Each episode seems almost identical. I was only half paying attention to it so might need to rewatch all of the episodes. However, everyone I know who watches it has said similar.
    Movie version with Yul Brynner is the best :)
    YES.

    What really surprises me is everyone I know who watches it has not seen the movie.
    Most don't even know the movie exists

    The Expanse (on Netflix) is pretty awesome SciFi, by the way
    Thanks for the suggestion. I will give it a watch tonight.

    Netflix tv series seem really good. Sadly my only experience of one of their movies was ARQ which was painful.
    The thing with the Expanse is that they are doing a slow build up - they have a whole series of novels to do. If you want Basil Exposition - this isn't it. They are doing the style of mention things and then slowly fill in later. If that bugs you, you wont like it.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,782
    edited November 2016
    I hate to interrupt the Brexitting, but the Ghost in the Shell trailer is out. It contains Scarlett Johanssen in skin-tight lycra wielding a Big Fuckoff Gun a la Matrix to a Depeche Mode soundtrack. It's gonna take a nuke just to slow Sunil down... :)

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,116

    Seems air fares will be going up and airlines will be going down (the pan).

    Who'd a thunk it?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/11/13/british-airlines-band-together-to-fight-for-continued-access-to/

    Perhaps we won't need that third runway after all.

    Not convinced we ever did.
    Yes - the telling bit were the executives whispering about how they needed "government involvement" in the 3rd runway because it was such a big project. Yet they were saying the business case was ironclad - money to be made hand over fist....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,838
    glw said:

    The BBC argument is so boring. They do some good stuff, they do some piss poor stuff. But HBO and now Netflix have raised the bar to another level.

    The Wire, Tits and Dragons, The Crown, House of Cards, Boardwalk Empire, etc etc etc

    There are things that the BBC used to be world reknown for that don't require you to hire out a whole Eastern European country e.g all those amazing sitcoms. Now bugger all of those. Citizen Khan FFS.

    Westworld (HBO) is fantastic too, I also really liked True Detective, even the second season.

    I think the best drama is mostly from the US now.
    Has been that way for years now.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    MP_SE said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of American TV, I'm loving Amazon's Red Oaks.

    If you have got Amazon Prime I recommend The Man in the High Castle.
    Watch "Longmire"
  • Pong said:

    Just out of interest,

    On the basis of the publicly available info/polls, what odds should trump have been at the start of voting on the 8th Nov?

    I recon Nate silver was basically spot on with his probability distribution, so I'll go 11/4.

    Does anyone take a different view?

    I agree with you that Nate had it right.
  • viewcode said:

    I hate to interrupt the Brexitting, but the Ghost in the Shell trailer is out. It contains Scarlett Johanssen in skin-tight lycra wielding a Big Fuckoff Gun a la Matrix to a Depeche Mode soundtrack. It's gonna take a nuke just to slow Sunil down... :)

    I already bought my ticket to see the Mode at the London Olympic Stadium in June :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Pong said:

    tyson said:

    Pong said:

    Just out of interest,

    On the basis of the publicly available info/polls, what odds should trump have been at the start of voting on the 8th Nov?

    I recon Nate silver was basically spot on with his probability distribution, so I'll go 11/4.

    Does anyone take a different view?


    Pong...I'm returning to lurker here...I'm so depressed by the world and the last thing I want to is to have some dialogue with some of the vile creatures that inhabit these waters. So enough quite frankly is enough for me.


    A case in point...our very own Trump narcissist, seanT, was bragging about having sex with a young girl a few weeks ago. The fact that he is a pathetic, middle aged man...you could only feel sorry for the girl having that sad piece of middle aged flab clambering on top of her. I hope he paid her enough.



    But....my vote will be for you as PbComer of the year. You are the epitome of this site...really intelligent, and a great tipster. And you do not get involved in the petty discussions and point scoring that I just engaged in.....


    So well done you...seriously....
    lol.

    Thanks, i do try. ;)
    Maybe :)

    What do you make of the remaining markets,

    Clinton pop vote looks to me to be 1.00 probability, not even a 1.01. A very certain 1-x (X approaches inf)
    Trump +/- 47% is interesting, -ve side I have my profit on.
    Turnout +/- 58% looks to me to be close too. 134,302,841 voters I make to be the barrier for the band so to speak.

    The Clinton/Trump turnout ECV bands are also I think 1.01 shots although not the 1.00 shot that Clinton popular vote is, my stake on these whilst still substantial is alot less than the 1-50 I took last night on the Clinton popular vote (An extra ballot box in Wayne county suddenly "found" could bust this whereas there is zero chance of enough skewed boxes being uncovered to flip the PV), and Hillary will add to the tally.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    edited November 2016
    MP_SE said:

    glw said:

    The BBC argument is so boring. They do some good stuff, they do some piss poor stuff. But HBO and now Netflix have raised the bar to another level.

    The Wire, Tits and Dragons, The Crown, House of Cards, Boardwalk Empire, etc etc etc

    There are things that the BBC used to be world reknown for that don't require you to hire out a whole Eastern European country e.g all those amazing sitcoms. Now bugger all of those. Citizen Khan FFS.

    Westworld (HBO) is fantastic too, I also really liked True Detective, even the second season.

    I think the best drama is mostly from the US now.
    Nothing much seems to happen in Westworld. Each episode seems almost identical. I was only half paying attention to it so might need to rewatch all of the episodes. However, everyone I know who watches it has said similar.
    Do people like Mr Robot? I did not watch it from the beginning, so when I see bits of it, it looks really intriguing but I have no idea what is going on.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Pong said:

    Just out of interest,

    On the basis of the publicly available info/polls, what odds should trump have been at the start of voting on the 8th Nov?

    I recon Nate silver was basically spot on with his probability distribution, so I'll go 11/4.

    Does anyone take a different view?

    I agree with you that Nate had it right.
    2/1 by Nate made it seem good value at 5.7 on Betfair so I put a bit on. Overall I came out about £200 up.

    Glad that I didn't overdo the Spin Markets. I lost £33 there at 50p an EV.
  • MTimT said:

    MP_SE said:

    glw said:

    The BBC argument is so boring. They do some good stuff, they do some piss poor stuff. But HBO and now Netflix have raised the bar to another level.

    The Wire, Tits and Dragons, The Crown, House of Cards, Boardwalk Empire, etc etc etc

    There are things that the BBC used to be world reknown for that don't require you to hire out a whole Eastern European country e.g all those amazing sitcoms. Now bugger all of those. Citizen Khan FFS.

    Westworld (HBO) is fantastic too, I also really liked True Detective, even the second season.

    I think the best drama is mostly from the US now.
    Nothing much seems to happen in Westworld. Each episode seems almost identical. I was only half paying attention to it so might need to rewatch all of the episodes. However, everyone I know who watches it has said similar.
    Do people like Mr Robot? I did not watch it from the beginning, so when I see bits of it, it looks really intriguing but I have no idea what is going on.
    Season one was great...haven't seen season two yet.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited November 2016
    Complete O/T - Zeke Elliott looks seriously impressive for the cowboys.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    edited November 2016

    Complete O/T - Zeke Elliott looks seriously impressive for the cowboys.

    83 yards ...
  • viewcode said:

    I hate to interrupt the Brexitting, but the Ghost in the Shell trailer is out. It contains Scarlett Johanssen in skin-tight lycra wielding a Big Fuckoff Gun a la Matrix to a Depeche Mode soundtrack. It's gonna take a nuke just to slow Sunil down... :)

    I already bought my ticket to see the Mode at the London Olympic Stadium in June :)
    I'm in a bleak place at the minute- multiple close family members losing or already lost the battle against cancer simultaneously. I've just had 3 hours driving up the motorway after dropping my lad off back at university, and DM blasting out on spotify was just the perfect mood music. Dunno what that says about my state of mind at the minute.
  • 2/1 by Nate made it seem good value at 5.7 on Betfair so I put a bit on. Overall I came out about £200 up.

    Glad that I didn't overdo the Spin Markets. I lost £33 there at 50p an EV.

    SPIN is a bit of a sore point Chez Nabavi...
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    MTimT said:

    MP_SE said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of American TV, I'm loving Amazon's Red Oaks.

    If you have got Amazon Prime I recommend The Man in the High Castle.
    Watch "Longmire"
    Thanks. I will check it out. Just had a Google and it looks like it could be quite interesting.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654

    Complete O/T - Zeke Elliott looks seriously impressive for the cowboys.

    I'm with Dak
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,783
    edited November 2016
    Yet another way in which the hard right and far left are circling round to join each other:
    http://www.thejc.com/comment-and-debate/comment/165869/ben-judah-i-was-new-york-when-goldene-medina-lost-its-shine

    There's a reason why so many Jews voted against Trump.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654

    2/1 by Nate made it seem good value at 5.7 on Betfair so I put a bit on. Overall I came out about £200 up.

    Glad that I didn't overdo the Spin Markets. I lost £33 there at 50p an EV.

    SPIN is a bit of a sore point Chez Nabavi...
    Have they settled on 316-232 yet ?
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    MP_SE said:

    MP_SE said:

    MP_SE said:

    glw said:

    The BBC argument is so boring. They do some good stuff, they do some piss poor stuff. But HBO and now Netflix have raised the bar to another level.

    The Wire, Tits and Dragons, The Crown, House of Cards, Boardwalk Empire, etc etc etc

    There are things that the BBC used to be world reknown for that don't require you to hire out a whole Eastern European country e.g all those amazing sitcoms. Now bugger all of those. Citizen Khan FFS.

    Westworld (HBO) is fantastic too, I also really liked True Detective, even the second season.

    I think the best drama is mostly from the US now.
    Nothing much seems to happen in Westworld. Each episode seems almost identical. I was only half paying attention to it so might need to rewatch all of the episodes. However, everyone I know who watches it has said similar.
    Movie version with Yul Brynner is the best :)
    YES.

    What really surprises me is everyone I know who watches it has not seen the movie.
    Most don't even know the movie exists

    The Expanse (on Netflix) is pretty awesome SciFi, by the way
    Thanks for the suggestion. I will give it a watch tonight.

    Netflix tv series seem really good. Sadly my only experience of one of their movies was ARQ which was painful.
    The thing with the Expanse is that they are doing a slow build up - they have a whole series of novels to do. If you want Basil Exposition - this isn't it. They are doing the style of mention things and then slowly fill in later. If that bugs you, you wont like it.
    I prefer it when the story is introduced slowly. Too much exposition is annoying as it can come across as rushed and fake.
  • Pulpstar said:

    2/1 by Nate made it seem good value at 5.7 on Betfair so I put a bit on. Overall I came out about £200 up.

    Glad that I didn't overdo the Spin Markets. I lost £33 there at 50p an EV.

    SPIN is a bit of a sore point Chez Nabavi...
    Have they settled on 316-232 yet ?
    Not sure, they've settled the Clinton XXX-up markets which all unambiguously settled at 0, but I don't know about the main ECV market because I closed out early. Just not early enough, unfortunately.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,116

    viewcode said:

    I hate to interrupt the Brexitting, but the Ghost in the Shell trailer is out. It contains Scarlett Johanssen in skin-tight lycra wielding a Big Fuckoff Gun a la Matrix to a Depeche Mode soundtrack. It's gonna take a nuke just to slow Sunil down... :)

    I already bought my ticket to see the Mode at the London Olympic Stadium in June :)
    I'm in a bleak place at the minute- multiple close family members losing or already lost the battle against cancer simultaneously. I've just had 3 hours driving up the motorway after dropping my lad off back at university, and DM blasting out on spotify was just the perfect mood music. Dunno what that says about my state of mind at the minute.
    Been in a similar place - mine was Apocalyptica.... It's what music is for...
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited November 2016
    Sean_F said:

    Pong said:

    Just out of interest,

    On the basis of the publicly available info/polls, what odds should trump have been at the start of voting on the 8th Nov?

    I recon Nate silver was basically spot on with his probability distribution, so I'll go 11/4.

    Does anyone take a different view?

    3-2. I bet on him at 4-1 with Paddy Power (i had a much earlier bet at 3-2). I wrote down my reasons and thought Hillary would win the ECV 279-259, and so concluded his odds were way too long.
    I think, in all honesty, i'd probably lay trump @ 6/4 in a rerun, without regrets.

    But at 4/1 (and greater over the final days) he was clearly the value bet, yet I didn't back him seriously until ~2am on the 9th. I found reasons not to. That irks me.

    I guess I'm trying to understand why I didn't make a shit ton of money on this election. I made a lot, but I missed some things that seem really silly in hindsight.

    Congratuations on your winnings btw.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    New appointments

    https://youtu.be/yKmnbejgXqQ
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,116
    MP_SE said:

    MP_SE said:

    MP_SE said:

    MP_SE said:

    glw said:

    The BBC argument is so boring. They do some good stuff, they do some piss poor stuff. But HBO and now Netflix have raised the bar to another level.

    The Wire, Tits and Dragons, The Crown, House of Cards, Boardwalk Empire, etc etc etc

    There are things that the BBC used to be world reknown for that don't require you to hire out a whole Eastern European country e.g all those amazing sitcoms. Now bugger all of those. Citizen Khan FFS.

    Westworld (HBO) is fantastic too, I also really liked True Detective, even the second season.

    I think the best drama is mostly from the US now.
    Nothing much seems to happen in Westworld. Each episode seems almost identical. I was only half paying attention to it so might need to rewatch all of the episodes. However, everyone I know who watches it has said similar.
    Movie version with Yul Brynner is the best :)
    YES.

    What really surprises me is everyone I know who watches it has not seen the movie.
    Most don't even know the movie exists

    The Expanse (on Netflix) is pretty awesome SciFi, by the way
    Thanks for the suggestion. I will give it a watch tonight.

    Netflix tv series seem really good. Sadly my only experience of one of their movies was ARQ which was painful.
    The thing with the Expanse is that they are doing a slow build up - they have a whole series of novels to do. If you want Basil Exposition - this isn't it. They are doing the style of mention things and then slowly fill in later. If that bugs you, you wont like it.
    I prefer it when the story is introduced slowly. Too much exposition is annoying as it can come across as rushed and fake.
    With the Expanse they drop you in 3 separate story threads at once. You have to pick up what is going on.... no one stops for half an hour - "as we all know..."
  • viewcode said:

    I hate to interrupt the Brexitting, but the Ghost in the Shell trailer is out. It contains Scarlett Johanssen in skin-tight lycra wielding a Big Fuckoff Gun a la Matrix to a Depeche Mode soundtrack. It's gonna take a nuke just to slow Sunil down... :)

    I already bought my ticket to see the Mode at the London Olympic Stadium in June :)
    I'm in a bleak place at the minute- multiple close family members losing or already lost the battle against cancer simultaneously. I've just had 3 hours driving up the motorway after dropping my lad off back at university, and DM blasting out on spotify was just the perfect mood music. Dunno what that says about my state of mind at the minute.
    Sorry to hear of your loss.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @joshtpm: Linda McMahon, former CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment under consideration to serve as Commerce Secretary.
  • Scott_P said:

    @joshtpm: Linda McMahon, former CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment under consideration to serve as Commerce Secretary.

    Whoever next? Hulk hogan ? The rock?
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Jeff B/DDHQ ‏@EsotericCD
    Remember WEST PHILADELPHIA VOTE FRAUD? Where Romney got zero votes in those precincts & HAD to be b/c fraud? Trump got 1,000 out of them.

    When you're winning the tune changes.
This discussion has been closed.