Roger and tim don't like May. They simply support her for 'next leader' as a means of undermining the Conservative party and its current leadership.
The problem with promoting May for leader is that it will never happen. Tories are like overgrown schoolchildren. The prospect of May as leader is as inviting to a child as being sent to stay with a maiden aunt for their summer holidays.
The child would undoubtedly be safe but the holiday would go down as the most boring endured in a lifetime.
I am completely baffled by this posting set of affairs.
I tried to respond to our Leicester GP, Mr Fox, about Gove. The point I was going to make is....I completely get Gove. He is clearly a man with a brain, a sense of purpose, a strategy, and a fundamental set of convictions. Labour's education policy has been truly appalling.
I just wish we had a few more Gove types sitting on the shadow bench.
Gove gets very bad press and his name is poison among a significant amount of the education establishment (though not universally), so it figures he would be rated so badly. Personally I like that he at least seems to have some idea of how to achieve things and make an impact. Hopefully that impact will prove positive overall.
I'm continually amazed at how low the LD figures drop. Sure, they will likely get much more in an actual election, but you'd think they'd hit the floor eventually, and they barely seem to pick up in the polls consistently even when they get out of the news.
Gove gets a lot of positive media coverage.
Many teachers are on side - despite the constant slagging off he dishes out - when it comes to rigour and a move away from skills to knowledge. We're still waiting for those promises re giving us some power back in the classroom... instead he's giving it to managers who, for the most part in my experience, are the substantial chunk of the problem.
Most people aren't thick enough to assume that all teachers are like those who go to union conferences or that they support all the union leader guff (or what gets reported anyway).
Most of the relevant polling, as I recall, shows that teachers are trusted and that parents with school-age children are positive about education (stand to be corrected on that as I can't be bothered to source...).
I suspect the underlying issue is that most people aren't thick enough, also, not to realise that the long game is to flog education off.
Roger and tim don't like May. They simply support her for 'next leader' as a means of undermining the Conservative party and its current leadership.
The problem with promoting May for leader is that it will never happen. Tories are like overgrown schoolchildren. The prospect of May as leader is as inviting to a child as being sent to stay with a maiden aunt for their summer holidays.
The child would undoubtedly be safe but the holiday would go down as the most boring endured in a lifetime.
I am completely baffled by this posting set of affairs.
I tried to respond to our Leicester GP, Mr Fox, about Gove. The point I was going to make is....I completely get Gove. He is clearly a man with a brain, a sense of purpose, a strategy, and a fundamental set of convictions. Labour's education policy has been truly appalling.
I just wish we had a few more Gove types sitting on the shadow bench.
I seriously believe that Danny Alexander has been the unexpected and mostly unsung hero of the Coalition Government.
His line that the Ministry of Defence could sustain additional cuts as it had "more horses than tanks" outdid even Thatcher at her greatest.
Doubtless the army could save money by scrapping horses, bearskins and the like, which are used only to please tourists. Whether it is a lot of money, I could not say.
I seriously believe that Danny Alexander has been the unexpected and mostly unsung hero of the Coalition Government.
It was a shame that Clegg had so little confidence in him he felt he had to rush the tainted Laws back with unseemly haste.
Laws has yet to re-establish his political reputation even setting aside the expenses taint.
Did the taint take him out for ever? We have yet to see,
Laws is what he is, Danny Alexander is Osbornes Number Two, metaphorically and factually. Anyone thinking either of them will get Lib Dem activist support in the next leadership election is probably a Scottish PB Tory.
I wouldn't be surprised if Danny Alexander is the most persuasive of all Lib Dems when dealing with the Tories. It will probably hurt him when Clegg goes as you suggest.
I seriously believe that Danny Alexander has been the unexpected and mostly unsung hero of the Coalition Government.
His line that the Ministry of Defence could sustain additional cuts as it had "more horses than tanks" outdid even Thatcher at her greatest.
Doubtless the army could save money by scrapping horses, bearskins and the like, which are used only to please tourists. Whether it is a lot of money, I could not say.
It is the symbolic value of the statement that inspires, DJL.
Short of advocating the abolition of the monarchy, I cannot envisage a Chief Secretary being braver.
It takes on establishment interests, and shows them up to be absurd, without alienating the target. Brilliant politics.
So far tonight UKIP has an average of 19% from 3 pollsters:
Opinium: 19% ComRes: 18% Survation: 20%
This shows UKIP holding it's own when the news is not on them; even when the news is against them or even if they are blanked out of the news by the MSP. In doing so UKIP has entered a new political era, and the other parties had better beware.
The YouGov tally may bring the average down, but YouGov has been out of step with UKIP for many months.
I am completely baffled by this posting set of affairs.
I tried to respond to our Leicester GP, Mr Fox, about Gove. The point I was going to make is....I completely get Gove. He is clearly a man with a brain, a sense of purpose, a strategy, and a fundamental set of convictions. Labour's education policy has been truly appalling.
I just wish we had a few more Gove types sitting on the shadow bench.
Gove may indeed feel education is vitally important but his policies are not obviously geared to improving it; he is presiding over a shortage of school places; and like most politicians, mutatis mutandis, he is in favour of freedom but freedom only to do as Gove approves -- not for nothing is it said that Gove's desk is the largest LEA in the country.
The sole remaining question is ; who was the greatest Welshman ?
Edward I of England, who crushed Welsh independence finally, and forever.
Nothing is forever.
Everything is forever too.
Knighthoods: actors and entertainers generally get them as a kind of lifetime achievement award which is equivalent to a sportsman retiring imo as actors don't really retire. If the cycling bod got one straight away then i suppose that changes it but generally i don't think they should be given out straight away for anything except bravery.
@foxinsoxuk Fox, *Danny Alexander won't necessarily pick up any extra support from the Tories, or lose any to the SNP or Labour at the next GE. And that is the key to why he will hang onto his seat. Ditto Malcolm Bruce in the Gordon constituency if he decides to fight another GE. There are very strong and solid pockets of Labour, SNP and Conservative support in these two seats that just isn't going tactically vote to throw either one of these MP's out of their seats even if they were not both locally very popular as is seen in other Scottish seats. These two seats could be four way marginals if either of them were to step down. But it is in particular the strong Libdem incumbency factor that gives Alexander and Bruce the edge, and hence those two comfortable majorities at the last GE.
This is in effect should be strong and fertile SNP territory as you can see from the Holyrood results But I cannot emphasis enough just how helpful the last boundary changes were to the Libdems in both these seats, and in my own seat of West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine. I suspect that both Malcolm Bruce and Ming Campbell were probable looking to retire and hand over the mantle to another Libdem candidate at the next GE. But with the current state of play for the Libdems in the polls, think we are going to see them both to stay onto fight the next GE as things stand.
I know that even when the Liberals were down to a handful of seats in the fifties they held onto some Scottish seats, but times change.
The big unknown is what will happen to the SNP vote if the referendum gets a vote for continued union. After the 1978 one was lost the SNP failed to hold a lot of their seats
@foxinsoxuk Fox, Danny Alexander won't necessarily pick up any extra support from the Tories or the Libdems and SNP at the next GE, and that is the key to why he will hang onto his seat. Ditto Malcolm Bruce in the Gordon constituency if he decides to fight another GE. There are very strong and solid pockets of Labour, SNP and Conservative support in these two seats that just isn't going tactically vote to throw either one of these MP's out of their seats even if they were not both locally very popular as is seen in other Scottish seats. These two seats should be four way marginals, but it is in particular the strong Libdem incumbency factor that gives Alexander and Bruce the edge, and hence those two comfortable majorities at the last GE.
This is in effect should be strong and fertile SNP territory as you can see from the Holyrood results But I cannot emphasis enough just how helpful the last boundary changes were to the Libdems in both these seats, and in my own seat of West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine. I suspect that both Malcolm Bruce and Ming Campbell were probable looking to retire and hand over the mantle to another Libdem candidate at the next GE. But with the current state of play for the Libdems in the polls, think we are going to see them both to stay onto fight the next GE as things stand.
@foxinsoxuk, I wrote that post too quickly as my computer was about to shut down for an update, only spotted a couple of mistakes when it was too late. So now edited.
@foxinsoxuk Fox, *Danny Alexander won't necessarily pick up any extra support from the Tories, or lose any to the SNP or Labour at the next GE. And that is the key to why he will hang onto his seat. Ditto Malcolm Bruce in the Gordon constituency if he decides to fight another GE. There are very strong and solid pockets of Labour, SNP and Conservative support in these two seats that just isn't going tactically vote to throw either one of these MP's out of their seats even if they were not both locally very popular as is seen in other Scottish seats. These two seats could be four way marginals if either of them were to step down. But it is in particular the strong Libdem incumbency factor that gives Alexander and Bruce the edge, and hence those two comfortable majorities at the last GE.
This is in effect should be strong and fertile SNP territory as you can see from the Holyrood results But I cannot emphasis enough just how helpful the last boundary changes were to the Libdems in both these seats, and in my own seat of West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine. I suspect that both Malcolm Bruce and Ming Campbell were probable looking to retire and hand over the mantle to another Libdem candidate at the next GE. But with the current state of play for the Libdems in the polls, think we are going to see them both to stay onto fight the next GE as things stand.
New poll suggests Lib Dems face Scottish mainland wipeout
According to the latest Ashcroft poll of marginal seats the Lib Dems are facing a total wipeout of MPs in mainland Scotland, with even Charlie Kennedy’s seat falling to the SNP.
1247 voters in the 11 Lib Dem Scottish Westminster seats were polled last month, both as to their general party support, and who they would vote for in their own constituency.
The result revealed that Lib-Dem support has collapsed and the Tories have fallen further back.
While Labour saw a modest increase, the SNP was the major beneficiary. Current voting intention (with the 2010 figures in those seats in brackets) was SNP 31% (+16%) : Lab 26% (+6%) : LD 20% (-21%) : Con 16% (-5%): Other 7% (+4%).
Although that vote change won’t be universal across every seat, the figures suggest that only Orkney and Shetland would remain in Lib Dem hands. Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk would fall to the Tories, while Labour would pick up East Dunbartonshire and Edinburgh West.
The other seven seats would be won by the SNP - Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine; Argyll & Bute; Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross; North East Fife; Gordon; Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey; and Ross, Skye & Lochaber.
If the results were to be repeated in the 2015 general election then such a scenario would see Sir Menzies Campbell, Danny Alexander and current Scottish Secretary Michael Moore all lose their seats
@foxinsoxuk You might think that, but the SNP supporters on here will point to Quebec in 1980, when the Parti Québécois lost an independence referendum and won seats at the subsequent provincial election (their failure to win seats at the national level is glossed over).
I would have thought that UK 1979 rather than Quebec 1980 would be a better model.
SNP Party infighting as the dream of independence turns to ashes must surely be the obvious outcome, and not likely to lead to a successful campaign in May 2015.
@foxinsoxuk You might think that, but the SNP supporters on here will point to Quebec in 1980, when the Parti Québécois lost an independence referendum and won seats at the subsequent provincial election (their failure to win seats at the national level is glossed over).
But with the SNP currently in power at Holyrood, I just don't see the loss of the Indy Ref holding much sway as an issue at the next GE in the seats they already hold.
I know that even when the Liberals were down to a handful of seats in the fifties they held onto some Scottish seats, but times change.
The big unknown is what will happen to the SNP vote if the referendum gets a vote for continued union. After the 1978 one was lost the SNP failed to hold a lot of their seats
@foxinsoxuk Fox, Danny Alexander won't necessarily pick up any extra support from the Tories or the Libdems and SNP at the next GE, and that is the key to why he will hang onto his seat. Ditto Malcolm Bruce in the Gordon constituency if he decides to fight another GE. There are very strong and solid pockets of Labour, SNP and Conservative support in these two seats that just isn't going tactically vote to throw either one of these MP's out of their seats even if they were not both locally very popular as is seen in other Scottish seats. These two seats should be four way marginals, but it is in particular the strong Libdem incumbency factor that gives Alexander and Bruce the edge, and hence those two comfortable majorities at the last GE.
This is in effect should be strong and fertile SNP territory as you can see from the Holyrood results But I cannot emphasis enough just how helpful the last boundary changes were to the Libdems in both these seats, and in my own seat of West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine. I suspect that both Malcolm Bruce and Ming Campbell were probable looking to retire and hand over the mantle to another Libdem candidate at the next GE. But with the current state of play for the Libdems in the polls, think we are going to see them both to stay onto fight the next GE as things stand.
"Yet voters seem to be more worried by the influence of wealthy donors on the Conservative party than by the influence of unions on Labour. The new Opinium/Observer poll finds that 56% of likely voters think that individuals who donate significant amounts of money to the Conservative party have too much influence, compared with 48% who have misgivings over the sway of trade unions."
I am sure that the focus would be on Holyrood, but that may in iself affect enthusiasm to have SNP MPs at Westminster. It may help the non SLAB parties.
But with the SNP currently in power at Holyrood, I just don't see the loss of the Indy Ref holding much sway as an issue at the next GE in the seats they already hold.
I know that even when the Liberals were down to a handful of seats in the fifties they held onto some Scottish seats, but times change.
The big unknown is what will happen to the SNP vote if the referendum gets a vote for continued union. After the 1978 one was lost the SNP failed to hold a lot of their seats
@foxinsoxuk Fox, Danny Alexander won't necessarily pick up any extra support from the Tories or the Libdems and SNP at the next GE, and that is the key to why he will hang onto his seat. Ditto Malcolm Bruce in the Gordon constituency if he decides to fight another GE. There are very strong and solid pockets of Labour, SNP and Conservative support in these two seats that just isn't going tactically vote to throw either one of these MP's out of their seats even if they were not both locally very popular as is seen in other Scottish seats. These two seats should be four way marginals, but it is in particular the strong Libdem incumbency factor that gives Alexander and Bruce the edge, and hence those two comfortable majorities at the last GE.
This is in effect should be strong and fertile SNP territory as you can see from the Holyrood results But I cannot emphasis enough just how helpful the last boundary changes were to the Libdems in both these seats, and in my own seat of West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine. I suspect that both Malcolm Bruce and Ming Campbell were probable looking to retire and hand over the mantle to another Libdem candidate at the next GE. But with the current state of play for the Libdems in the polls, think we are going to see them both to stay onto fight the next GE as things stand.
As I suggested last week to JackW looks like the SNP will make big gains in rural seats at the expense of the LDs. On Ken Clarke and Portillo, neither would have beaten Blair, polls in 2001 actually had Portillo doing worse than IDS, Clarke could have got a hung parliament though. What the overnight polls confirm is that May is now a growing rival to Boris as a plausible, electable alternative to Cameron. Charles thanks for your earlier comments on the museum in Bath, will have to look it up if I visit the city again, my uncle used to manage a hotel there, UnionDivvie - Yes, the Boyne was re-enacted throughout the nineties and early noughties! Missed your comments earlier as went shopping and to see Summer in February
Mr McLeish said there was “too much venom and hatred aimed at the SNP” in Better Together, which is an alliance of Labour, Tories and the Lib Dems.
He called on the Labour leadership in Scotland to leave the group and “forge a new campaign” with Lib Dem supporters of greater devolution.
The Better Together campaign is led by former Labour chancellor Alistair Darling, but the leadership of the group includes senior Scottish Tories such as David McLetchie, who is a director of the campaign.
Mr McLeish said that the anti-independence campaign was “tied to the utterings of David Cameron and the Scottish Tories” as he called for a new Unionist Labour-Lib Dem campaign.
He also said that Better Together was involved in a “constant haranguing of Scots” in a campaign he claimed is dominated by Westminster and London-based politicians.
Mr McLeish said: “There are fear and scare stories such as that we’ll have passport controls at the Border and won’t have access to blood transfusion supplies. Next they’ll be saying there will be seven years of famine in an independent Scotland and that aliens will land here.
“By leaving Better Together, Labour can start to reinforce its identity.”
The former first minister’s attack on his party’s decision to support Better Together came as it emerged that senior figures within Scottish Labour had refused to join the cross-party campaign because of Tory involvement.
Party figures staying away from Better Together include MP Katy Clark, MSP Elaine Smith and senior trade union officials – Richard Leonard, Scotland organiser for the GMB union, and Dave Watson, head of campaigns at Unison.
Mr McLeish warned: “Scots don’t like to be talked to like idiots and there has been a constant haranguing of Scots by Westminster in terms of the type of campaign being run.
“This could creates a backlash as Scots want to know what vision of Scotland within the Union the Unionists are campaigning for. If there’s another year of this people will start to rebel.”
He said: “The Tories bring nothing to the table, so Labour and progressive Lib Dems have to put forward their own campaign.
“It’s not just the referendum, we have a general election in 2015 and then a Holyrood election in 2016.”
Why would the SNP make big gains in rural seats as the expense of high profile Libdems like Charles Kennedy, Ming Campbell, Malcolm Bruce and the current Chief Secretary of the Treasury Danny Alexander? What sway does an SNP MP hold at Westminster in Government or Opposition compared to an SNP Government at Holyrood presiding over day to day issues in Scotland. Surely an SNP FM in Bute House negotiating with the Westminster Government is far more useful as a direct opposition?
As I suggested last week to JackW looks like the SNP will make big gains in rural seats at the expense of the LDs. On Ken Clarke and Portillo, neither would have beaten Blair, polls in 2001 actually had Portillo doing worse than IDS, Clarke could have got a hung parliament though. What the overnight polls confirm is that May is now a growing rival to Boris as a plausible, electable alternative to Cameron. Charles thanks for your earlier comments on the museum in Bath, will have to look it up if I visit the city again, my uncle used to manage a hotel there, UnionDivvie - Yes, the Boyne was re-enacted throughout the nineties and early noughties! Missed your comments earlier as went shopping and to see Summer in February
Why would the SNP make big gains in rural seats as the expense of high profile Libdems like Charles Kennedy, Ming Campbell, Malcolm Bruce and the current Chief Secretary of the Treasury Danny Alexander?
*sigh*
New poll suggests Lib Dems face Scottish mainland wipeout
According to the latest Ashcroft poll of marginal seats the Lib Dems are facing a total wipeout of MPs in mainland Scotland, with even Charlie Kennedy’s seat falling to the SNP.
1247 voters in the 11 Lib Dem Scottish Westminster seats were polled last month, both as to their general party support, and who they would vote for in their own constituency.
The result revealed that Lib-Dem support has collapsed and the Tories have fallen further back.
While Labour saw a modest increase, the SNP was the major beneficiary. Current voting intention (with the 2010 figures in those seats in brackets) was SNP 31% (+16%) : Lab 26% (+6%) : LD 20% (-21%) : Con 16% (-5%): Other 7% (+4%).
Although that vote change won’t be universal across every seat, the figures suggest that only Orkney and Shetland would remain in Lib Dem hands. Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk would fall to the Tories, while Labour would pick up East Dunbartonshire and Edinburgh West.
The other seven seats would be won by the SNP - Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine; Argyll & Bute; Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross; North East Fife; Gordon; Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey; and Ross, Skye & Lochaber.
If the results were to be repeated in the 2015 general election then such a scenario would see Sir Menzies Campbell, Danny Alexander and current Scottish Secretary Michael Moore all lose their seats
Fitalass, see Mick Pork - Basically the LDs are toast in 2015 following the Coalition and the SNP are simply the recipients of that protest in rural areas which do not vote Labour and where the Tories are still weak across Scotland
Why would the SNP make big gains in rural seats as the expense of high profile Libdems like Charles Kennedy, Ming Campbell, Malcolm Bruce and the current Chief Secretary of the Treasury Danny Alexander?
*sigh*
New poll suggests Lib Dems face Scottish mainland wipeout
According to the latest Ashcroft poll of marginal seats the Lib Dems are facing a total wipeout of MPs in mainland Scotland, with even Charlie Kennedy’s seat falling to the SNP.
1247 voters in the 11 Lib Dem Scottish Westminster seats were polled last month, both as to their general party support, and who they would vote for in their own constituency.
The result revealed that Lib-Dem support has collapsed and the Tories have fallen further back.
While Labour saw a modest increase, the SNP was the major beneficiary. Current voting intention (with the 2010 figures in those seats in brackets) was SNP 31% (+16%) : Lab 26% (+6%) : LD 20% (-21%) : Con 16% (-5%): Other 7% (+4%).
Although that vote change won’t be universal across every seat, the figures suggest that only Orkney and Shetland would remain in Lib Dem hands. Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk would fall to the Tories, while Labour would pick up East Dunbartonshire and Edinburgh West.
The other seven seats would be won by the SNP - Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine; Argyll & Bute; Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross; North East Fife; Gordon; Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey; and Ross, Skye & Lochaber.
If the results were to be repeated in the 2015 general election then such a scenario would see Sir Menzies Campbell, Danny Alexander and current Scottish Secretary Michael Moore all lose their seats
The fact that an anti-tipster like you rates him only emphasises just how much trouble little Danny is in.
Despite all that, I can still see Ming, Kennedy and Bruce holding on. Particularly, the first two as they are not necessarily identified with the disastrous coalition. Danny will get all the opprobrium for being the face of the coalition - worse, for being, Gideon's lackey !
Despite all that, I can still see Ming, Kennedy and Bruce holding on. Particularly, the first two as they are not necessarily identified with the disastrous coalition. Danny will get all the opprobrium for being the face of the coalition - worse, for being, Gideon's lackey !
Kennedy more than likely, Ming a fairish chance, Bruce not quite as good an outlook.
If the lib dems are suicidal enough keep Clegg as leader then there's no telling just how badly they could do but it's going to be real ugly. Someone else could mitigate their losses but their base is continually being hammered year on year and that matters hugely.
Good result for the FDP from Allensbach, putting them on 6.5%.
In fact there seems to have been a slight uptick in their support across all the polling organisations, with just Infratest dimap still putting them below 5%:
It's Sod's Law that the LDs will lose half their seats and then still decide who goes to Number 10! It's about time some of the betting companies started offering bets on such an outcome IMO.
"Latest YouGov/The Sunday Times results 14th July - Con 30%, Lab 41%, LD 10%, UKIP 13%; APP -38"
It looks the Tory attack on the unions backfired badly as predicted by yours truly.
Considering how out of touch Cameron is in social areas such as attitudes to trade unionism it's surprising he should choose as his adviser an Australian who doesn't even live here.
(Out of a population of 60 million couldn't he find someone local)
Comments
Did the taint take him out for ever? We have yet to see,
Many Telegraph stories are unbelievable, most literally so.
What with the scottish tory surge on top of that it's going to be a vastly entertaining 2015.
But that will be the Lib Dem's loss.
Short of advocating the abolition of the monarchy, I cannot envisage a Chief Secretary being braver.
It takes on establishment interests, and shows them up to be absurd, without alienating the target. Brilliant politics.
The cost of the Busbies is immaterial.
Opinium: 19%
ComRes: 18%
Survation: 20%
This shows UKIP holding it's own when the news is not on them; even when the news is against them or even if they are blanked out of the news by the MSP. In doing so UKIP has entered a new political era, and the other parties had better beware.
The YouGov tally may bring the average down, but YouGov has been out of step with UKIP for many months.
Knighthoods: actors and entertainers generally get them as a kind of lifetime achievement award which is equivalent to a sportsman retiring imo as actors don't really retire. If the cycling bod got one straight away then i suppose that changes it but generally i don't think they should be given out straight away for anything except bravery.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/heal-our-hospitals/10178296/13000-died-needlessly-at-14-worst-NHS-trusts.html
I wish that I could say it was a load of rubbish, but it isn't.
This is in effect should be strong and fertile SNP territory as you can see from the Holyrood results But I cannot emphasis enough just how helpful the last boundary changes were to the Libdems in both these seats, and in my own seat of West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine. I suspect that both Malcolm Bruce and Ming Campbell were probable looking to retire and hand over the mantle to another Libdem candidate at the next GE. But with the current state of play for the Libdems in the polls, think we are going to see them both to stay onto fight the next GE as things stand.
*Edited
'I just wish we had a few more Gove types sitting on the shadow bench'.
Agree, they don't get much worse than Stephen Twitt.
A letter written by Lord Hutton, who chaired the public inquiry into Dr Kelly’s death, shows he was asked to do the job just three hours after the Iraq weapons expert was found dead.
At that point he had not been identified and no cause of death had been established.
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/scottish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1194093
Below 41.5% at 5/6 looks very good value on current polling. I'm on.
The big unknown is what will happen to the SNP vote if the referendum gets a vote for continued union. After the 1978 one was lost the SNP failed to hold a lot of their seats
Meanwhile, the betting opportunities are obvious.
SNP Party infighting as the dream of independence turns to ashes must surely be the obvious outcome, and not likely to lead to a successful campaign in May 2015.
How are those well kbown Socialists Bernie Ecclestone and Lakshmi Mittal getting on?
Charles thanks for your earlier comments on the museum in Bath, will have to look it up if I visit the city again, my uncle used to manage a hotel there, UnionDivvie - Yes, the Boyne was re-enacted throughout the nineties and early noughties! Missed your comments earlier as went shopping and to see Summer in February
In 1989 they were polling in single digits and then went on to take 18% at the 1992 GE.
Of course, you would, Avery. It makes one Tory to recognise another even if the letters LD is pinned on him !
Despite all that, I can still see Ming, Kennedy and Bruce holding on. Particularly, the first two as they are not necessarily identified with the disastrous coalition. Danny will get all the opprobrium for being the face of the coalition - worse, for being, Gideon's lackey !
If the lib dems are suicidal enough keep Clegg as leader then there's no telling just how badly they could do but it's going to be real ugly. Someone else could mitigate their losses but their base is continually being hammered year on year and that matters hugely.
In fact there seems to have been a slight uptick in their support across all the polling organisations, with just Infratest dimap still putting them below 5%:
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm
(Thanks to NP for pointing out this website a few months ago).
Remember (of the big three parties) only the LibDems cannot win a GE under FPTP
It's Sod's Law that the LDs will lose half their seats and then still decide who goes to Number 10! It's about time some of the betting companies started offering bets on such an outcome IMO.
It looks the Tory attack on the unions backfired badly as predicted by yours truly.
Considering how out of touch Cameron is in social areas such as attitudes to trade unionism it's surprising he should choose as his adviser an Australian who doesn't even live here.
(Out of a population of 60 million couldn't he find someone local)