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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,011

    IanB2 said:

    I see the daily mail today moves onto publishing photos and details of the Supreme Court judges.

    Naked intimidation.
    Not only that, inaccurate, too:
    "All four judges to rule on the Government's Brexit case have links to Europe"

    All four ?
    Um, how many judges will be sitting ?
  • CD13 said:

    Assuming Hillary wins, do you reckon the Trumpers will accept the result or go down the road of the Bitter Remainers and try to stop her being appointed?

    Fancy not accepting the result. So different, so very different, from our own dear voters.

    It's not Trumpsters but House Republicans who will refuse to accept the result. Heck, half of them won't even work with their own side: ask John Boehner.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,927
    chestnut said:

    ITN currently running a piece on 'Shy Trumpers'. They sound certain that they exist.

    Of course they do. But so do shy Clinton-ites.

    We'll know the proportions of each in about 28 hours.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    MikeL said:

    "A Transit Strike In Philly Could Lower Turnout, Especially Among Black And Poor Voters"

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-transit-strike-in-philly-could-lower-turnout-among-black-and-poor-voters/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

    That's bad news. Shades of the London storm on 23 June, when much of the transport system collapsed?
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    matt said:

    Blue_rog said:

    Ugh, just found myself agreeing with Michael O'Leary re airport expansion

    I'm away but I presume it's a case of "its unnecessary". If so, he made that argument about the building of T2 in Dublin. If that hadn't been built then the airport would now be very capacity constrained (let's not mention the 2nd runway though).
    No! He's suggested 3 new runways. Heathrow, Gatwick, and Stanstead
  • Jobabob said:
    Easy, the numbers for white voters are going up too.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Trump is still pushing most of the protectionist stuff as far as I can see

    That video Plato posted was very Sanders friendly. Apparently this is on rotation in the swing states.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vST61W4bGm8
    Yes, he is still making a play for some 'Berniebots'
    Yes, the key to the election, and why the polls might be wrong, is the previously non-voting Bernie supporters. Will they stay at home, vote for Hillary as a Democrat, or vote for the Donald as NOTA?
    Most will vote for Hillary but some will stay at home and some will vote for Stein, a small minority will even vote for Trump
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    ARSE4US

    The Attack Of The Clintons

    44 minutes 44 seconds
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591

    IanB2 said:

    I see the daily mail today moves onto publishing photos and details of the Supreme Court judges.

    Naked intimidation.
    They misread their targets (if they genuine hope to shift the vote). Judges are so allergic to being pressured that it risks overriding a neutral assessment of the case.

    Interesting Ashcroft assessment of the Trump-Brexit analogy:

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/11/donald-trump-is-like-brexit-in-three-key-ways/
    That's a good piece from Ashcroft about the similarities and differences between the Brexit vote and the Trump phenomenon.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    Blue_rog said:

    matt said:

    Blue_rog said:

    Ugh, just found myself agreeing with Michael O'Leary re airport expansion

    I'm away but I presume it's a case of "its unnecessary". If so, he made that argument about the building of T2 in Dublin. If that hadn't been built then the airport would now be very capacity constrained (let's not mention the 2nd runway though).
    No! He's suggested 3 new runways. Heathrow, Gatwick, and Stanstead
    He's a sleeper agent for #LibDemFightback ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716

    Problem with scheduling like 4 events in one day that HYUFD was so impressed by: Trump running several hours late, leaving mostly-elderly supporters standing around getting annoyed at him.

    https://twitter.com/sarahmccammon/status/795466177694859268

    4 events contacts far more voters than 1 and Pennsylvania is not going to be decided by one vote
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,927
    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    I see the daily mail today moves onto publishing photos and details of the Supreme Court judges.

    Naked intimidation.
    They misread their targets (if they genuine hope to shift the vote). Judges are so allergic to being pressured that it risks overriding a neutral assessment of the case.

    Interesting Ashcroft assessment of the Trump-Brexit analogy:

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/11/donald-trump-is-like-brexit-in-three-key-ways/
    That's a good piece from Ashcroft about the similarities and differences between the Brexit vote and the Trump phenomenon.
    It is; well written, insightful and succinct!
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    HYUFD said:

    Problem with scheduling like 4 events in one day that HYUFD was so impressed by: Trump running several hours late, leaving mostly-elderly supporters standing around getting annoyed at him.

    https://twitter.com/sarahmccammon/status/795466177694859268

    4 events contacts far more voters than 1 and Pennsylvania is not going to be decided by one vote
    You have turned into a one-man Trumper rebuttal machine!!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    New thread
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Blue_rog said:

    matt said:

    Blue_rog said:

    Ugh, just found myself agreeing with Michael O'Leary re airport expansion

    I'm away but I presume it's a case of "its unnecessary". If so, he made that argument about the building of T2 in Dublin. If that hadn't been built then the airport would now be very capacity constrained (let's not mention the 2nd runway though).
    No! He's suggested 3 new runways. Heathrow, Gatwick, and Stanstead
    On balance that's no reversal - runways good, terminals bad. Given Ryanair's 20 minute turn around that's no surprise though.
  • Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    I see the daily mail today moves onto publishing photos and details of the Supreme Court judges.

    Naked intimidation.
    Not only that, inaccurate, too:
    "All four judges to rule on the Government's Brexit case have links to Europe"

    All four ?
    Um, how many judges will be sitting ?
    Farage is planning to march on the Court with a load of his fellow pitchforkers apparently.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591

    CD13 said:

    Assuming Hillary wins, do you reckon the Trumpers will accept the result or go down the road of the Bitter Remainers and try to stop her being appointed?

    Fancy not accepting the result. So different, so very different, from our own dear voters.

    It's not Trumpsters but House Republicans who will refuse to accept the result. Heck, half of them won't even work with their own side: ask John Boehner.
    If it's anything bar a Clinton landslide, she's in danger of being able to pass precisely nothing through the House for at least the first two years.

    Paul Ryan might be a good bet to run in 2020 - if he can ensure the Republicans make Hillary a completely lame duck for four years, he'll be monumentally popular with his own side.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    I see the daily mail today moves onto publishing photos and details of the Supreme Court judges.

    Naked intimidation.
    They misread their targets (if they genuine hope to shift the vote). Judges are so allergic to being pressured that it risks overriding a neutral assessment of the case.

    Interesting Ashcroft assessment of the Trump-Brexit analogy:

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/11/donald-trump-is-like-brexit-in-three-key-ways/
    That's a good piece from Ashcroft about the similarities and differences between the Brexit vote and the Trump phenomenon.
    The similarities are the white working and lower middle cllass for Trump/Leave, white college graduates for Hillary/Remain, minorities for Hillary/Remain, the old for Trump/Leave, the young for Hillary/Remain. The differences are the Hispanic vote in the US which is not present in the UK which will be an advantage for Hillary and the libertarian vote in the US will be voting for Johnson not Trump whereas in the UK it voted for Leave. The latter two factors are probably enough to give Hillary the edge and produce a Hillary victory but remember the final UK poll average had Remain ahead by 0. 5% and Leave won by 4%, Hillary's average poll lead is not so big a similar error could not produce a narrow Trump won, at least in the popular vote, if the white working class turnout in the US to the extent they did in the UK
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    Sandpit said:

    CD13 said:

    Assuming Hillary wins, do you reckon the Trumpers will accept the result or go down the road of the Bitter Remainers and try to stop her being appointed?

    Fancy not accepting the result. So different, so very different, from our own dear voters.

    It's not Trumpsters but House Republicans who will refuse to accept the result. Heck, half of them won't even work with their own side: ask John Boehner.
    If it's anything bar a Clinton landslide, she's in danger of being able to pass precisely nothing through the House for at least the first two years.

    Paul Ryan might be a good bet to run in 2020 - if he can ensure the Republicans make Hillary a completely lame duck for four years, he'll be monumentally popular with his own side.
    Ryan is now seen as a RINO by the base and losing VP nominees, as he was in 2012, almost never get the nomination. It will also be difficult for him to match the level of opposition to Hillary Cruz will show in the Senate, as Speaker he will have to make a few compromises
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    Jobabob said:

    HYUFD said:

    Problem with scheduling like 4 events in one day that HYUFD was so impressed by: Trump running several hours late, leaving mostly-elderly supporters standing around getting annoyed at him.

    https://twitter.com/sarahmccammon/status/795466177694859268

    4 events contacts far more voters than 1 and Pennsylvania is not going to be decided by one vote
    You have turned into a one-man Trumper rebuttal machine!!
    Unpaid, I hope the Donald appreciates my efforts!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Sandpit said:

    CD13 said:

    Assuming Hillary wins, do you reckon the Trumpers will accept the result or go down the road of the Bitter Remainers and try to stop her being appointed?

    Fancy not accepting the result. So different, so very different, from our own dear voters.

    It's not Trumpsters but House Republicans who will refuse to accept the result. Heck, half of them won't even work with their own side: ask John Boehner.
    If it's anything bar a Clinton landslide, she's in danger of being able to pass precisely nothing through the House for at least the first two years.

    Paul Ryan might be a good bet to run in 2020 - if he can ensure the Republicans make Hillary a completely lame duck for four years, he'll be monumentally popular with his own side.
    Paul Ryan is fucked
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,927
    Sandpit said:

    CD13 said:

    Assuming Hillary wins, do you reckon the Trumpers will accept the result or go down the road of the Bitter Remainers and try to stop her being appointed?

    Fancy not accepting the result. So different, so very different, from our own dear voters.

    It's not Trumpsters but House Republicans who will refuse to accept the result. Heck, half of them won't even work with their own side: ask John Boehner.
    If it's anything bar a Clinton landslide, she's in danger of being able to pass precisely nothing through the House for at least the first two years.

    Paul Ryan might be a good bet to run in 2020 - if he can ensure the Republicans make Hillary a completely lame duck for four years, he'll be monumentally popular with his own side.
    Agreed, I'm on Ryan for 2020: acceptable to the base, intelligent, clean cut.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    edited November 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    CD13 said:

    Assuming Hillary wins, do you reckon the Trumpers will accept the result or go down the road of the Bitter Remainers and try to stop her being appointed?

    Fancy not accepting the result. So different, so very different, from our own dear voters.

    It's not Trumpsters but House Republicans who will refuse to accept the result. Heck, half of them won't even work with their own side: ask John Boehner.
    If it's anything bar a Clinton landslide, she's in danger of being able to pass precisely nothing through the House for at least the first two years.

    Paul Ryan might be a good bet to run in 2020 - if he can ensure the Republicans make Hillary a completely lame duck for four years, he'll be monumentally popular with his own side.
    Agreed, I'm on Ryan for 2020: acceptable to the base, intelligent, clean cut.
    I question whether he is now acceptable to the base in a way Cruz or Pence are. The latter two are more likely in my view and Cruz was runner-up this year and cleverly distanced himself from Trump at the beginning before now giving him a clearer endorsement than Ryan has thus ensuring he is better placed to pick up Trump voters in the 2012 primaries without being identified too closely with a losing Trump campaign which Pence would be
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Sandpit said:

    Morning all. So here we are, 24 hours to go and Betfair says it's a clear win for Hillary, back in to 1.21 this morning. Do we agree that Florida, Pennsylvania and Nevada are the key States to watch?

    Put it like this - if the GOTV tomorrow isn't VERY heavily skewed towards the male,pale and stale then this will be a procession.

    However there is a very large potential pool of MPS who didn't vote last time.

    As has been mentioned two Republican states declare early.

    Indiana - which would need a Trump +15 exit poll to make life interesting.
    Kentucky - which would need a Trump +25 exit poll to make life interesting.

    Anything less than that and you can probably pour onto the swing states for HRC. If it is above that then I am sorry but you're going to have a late (but exciting) night.

    (Fortunately most swing states are in the East so by 2.00am we will know the result (Unless Nevada is required))
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    CD13 said:

    Assuming Hillary wins, do you reckon the Trumpers will accept the result or go down the road of the Bitter Remainers and try to stop her being appointed?

    Fancy not accepting the result. So different, so very different, from our own dear voters.

    It's not Trumpsters but House Republicans who will refuse to accept the result. Heck, half of them won't even work with their own side: ask John Boehner.
    If it's anything bar a Clinton landslide, she's in danger of being able to pass precisely nothing through the House for at least the first two years.

    Paul Ryan might be a good bet to run in 2020 - if he can ensure the Republicans make Hillary a completely lame duck for four years, he'll be monumentally popular with his own side.
    Agreed, I'm on Ryan for 2020: acceptable to the base, intelligent, clean cut.
    Ryan is a dead end. He's more of a dead end than Scott Walker.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    CD13 said:

    Assuming Hillary wins, do you reckon the Trumpers will accept the result or go down the road of the Bitter Remainers and try to stop her being appointed?

    Fancy not accepting the result. So different, so very different, from our own dear voters.

    It's not Trumpsters but House Republicans who will refuse to accept the result. Heck, half of them won't even work with their own side: ask John Boehner.
    If it's anything bar a Clinton landslide, she's in danger of being able to pass precisely nothing through the House for at least the first two years.

    Paul Ryan might be a good bet to run in 2020 - if he can ensure the Republicans make Hillary a completely lame duck for four years, he'll be monumentally popular with his own side.
    Agreed, I'm on Ryan for 2020: acceptable to the base, intelligent, clean cut.
    I question whether he is now acceptable to the base in a way Cruz or Pence are. The latter two are more likely in my view and Cruz was runner-up this year and cleverly distanced himself from Trump at the beginning before now giving him a clearer endorsement than Ryan has thus ensuring he is better placed to pick up Trump voters in the 2012 primaries without being identified too closely with a losing Trump campaign which Pence would be
    Cruz has poisoned himself to the never Trump crowd.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,334
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    CD13 said:

    Assuming Hillary wins, do you reckon the Trumpers will accept the result or go down the road of the Bitter Remainers and try to stop her being appointed?

    Fancy not accepting the result. So different, so very different, from our own dear voters.

    It's not Trumpsters but House Republicans who will refuse to accept the result. Heck, half of them won't even work with their own side: ask John Boehner.
    If it's anything bar a Clinton landslide, she's in danger of being able to pass precisely nothing through the House for at least the first two years.

    Paul Ryan might be a good bet to run in 2020 - if he can ensure the Republicans make Hillary a completely lame duck for four years, he'll be monumentally popular with his own side.
    Agreed, I'm on Ryan for 2020: acceptable to the base, intelligent, clean cut.
    Ryan is going to have a though time getting re elected as speaker. I wouldn't bet on him.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    CD13 said:

    Assuming Hillary wins, do you reckon the Trumpers will accept the result or go down the road of the Bitter Remainers and try to stop her being appointed?

    Fancy not accepting the result. So different, so very different, from our own dear voters.

    It's not Trumpsters but House Republicans who will refuse to accept the result. Heck, half of them won't even work with their own side: ask John Boehner.
    If it's anything bar a Clinton landslide, she's in danger of being able to pass precisely nothing through the House for at least the first two years.

    Paul Ryan might be a good bet to run in 2020 - if he can ensure the Republicans make Hillary a completely lame duck for four years, he'll be monumentally popular with his own side.
    Agreed, I'm on Ryan for 2020: acceptable to the base, intelligent, clean cut.
    I question whether he is now acceptable to the base in a way Cruz or Pence are. The latter two are more likely in my view and Cruz was runner-up this year and cleverly distanced himself from Trump at the beginning before now giving him a clearer endorsement than Ryan has thus ensuring he is better placed tos in the 2012 primaries without being identified too closely with a losing Trump campaign which Pence would be
    Cruz has poisoned himself to the never Trump crowd.
    Never Trump voters are now just a tiny minority of GOP voters
This discussion has been closed.