Second by election of the night seeing UKIP making more progress than Labour, the LDs and the Tories, LDs see the biggest fall, seems this court judgement could be a godsend for the Kippers and a disaster for the yellows!
Jeez. If Labour can't win in Grangetown! Give up.
I suspect there might be hint of Asian politics here- the Plaid, Labour, and LD candidates were all of Asian origin. The winner was a 'community banker'.
Not impossible I guess. Should be slam dunk Labour territory though, local factors aside.</blockquot
Grangetown now is not the place i knew even 20 years ago. Very big Asian community, not quite the natural Labour territory it used to be. Clearly anti Labour vote both nationally and locally where council has made some pretty unpopular decisions.
Leave or stay. Our country has never been more divided.
I despair at our poisonous politics.
It was not like this even two years ago.
Thanks Mr Cameron. This is your legacy.
Actually it was the legacy of Blair and Brown who both decided that they could ignore and scorn the views of millions of the people they were supposed to be representing.
No. Things were fine at the GE in 2010 and 2015.
Dave opened Pandoras box. This thing today is down to his poorly drafted bill. Noone else is to blame. Noone.
No. Things were not fine. Millions of us were very concerned as our rights being sliced away salami style to "Europe". Political leaders were going "la la la" for years. The longer this debate was put off the worse it was going to get when it came to a head. I really really wanted Cameron to get a proper new deal, his utter failure, his trying to con us it was great, and the total tin ear from the Continent persuaded me I'd been kidding myself and swung me decisively.
There are certainly many like you for whom Europe has been a burning issue, however you are in the minority. What explains Brexit, like what explains Trump, is delayed anger about the fallout from the 2008 financial crisis and bailouts of the financial system. This is above all a crisis of big government capitalism.
Don't forget immigration,when the Blair government signed up to open our borders early to the new EU Eastern European members and then the Bastards(yes rage) lied to say only 13 thousand people would come started the real path for brexit in my opinion.
You lose the trust of the people.
Yes you're absolutely right. I edited my post afterwards to say I'd left that out. I think Blair's decision not to apply the transition period for the new Eastern European members was the biggest single mistake contributing to Brexit.
Totally. Quite right .
Not really. If you look at the polling over the last 40 years concerning the EU, there is a poor correlation with inward migration, even from the EU or not.
There does look to be a reasonable correlation with economic difficulties, with Leave polling highly in the Early eighties, early nineties and post GFC.
I have had a most enjoyable evening seeing The Specials. Not as energetic as they used to be but still full of righteous anger against racism, and the class system. A very good antidote to our toxic Brexit and Trumpist politics.
God, 2016 has been a horrible year for liberals, internationalists and the open-minded. Hillary winning will at least stop the anti-globalist, nationalist/left-nationalist juggernaut for a while. Trump wins? The horror film comes true, the world closes in upon itself.
God, 2016 has been a horrible year for liberals, internationalists and the open-minded. Hillary winning will at least stop the anti-globalist, nationalist/left-nationalist juggernaut for a while. Trump wins? The horror film comes true, the world closes in upon itself.
Trump is not going to win - but Clinton is dreadful and will struggle
God, 2016 has been a horrible year for liberals, internationalists and the open-minded. Hillary winning will at least stop the anti-globalist, nationalist/left-nationalist juggernaut for a while. Trump wins? The horror film comes true, the world closes in upon itself.
Trump is not going to win - but Clinton is dreadful and will struggle
If she wins, openness wins. The world wins. People who look at the world beyond their own front door win.
God, 2016 has been a horrible year for liberals, internationalists and the open-minded. Hillary winning will at least stop the anti-globalist, nationalist/left-nationalist juggernaut for a while. Trump wins? The horror film comes true, the world closes in upon itself.
If Trump wins, just need Wilders and Le Pen to win next year and the nightmare is complete. (Though I think the establishment will scrape home in each case in the end)
God, 2016 has been a horrible year for liberals, internationalists and the open-minded. Hillary winning will at least stop the anti-globalist, nationalist/left-nationalist juggernaut for a while. Trump wins? The horror film comes true, the world closes in upon itself.
Trump is not going to win - but Clinton is dreadful and will struggle
Hillary will be hobbled by a Republican Congress and will be even more so after the midterms.
God, 2016 has been a horrible year for liberals, internationalists and the open-minded. Hillary winning will at least stop the anti-globalist, nationalist/left-nationalist juggernaut for a while. Trump wins? The horror film comes true, the world closes in upon itself.
Trump is not going to win - but Clinton is dreadful and will struggle
President Kaine sounds like slightly dull but ultimately safe choice when Hillary inevitably has to stand down either over her health or corruption.
UKIP already up 6.4%, more than the Tories and LDs and Labour down
Doesn't really count if they didn't stand last time, surely? (And others who didn't stand before did better, so not all that much to write home about)
Nonetheless not a bad start from no base at all, though in Rainham seems the Tories were the biggest gainers. Fair Oak, Longlevens and Kingswood and Burnley Central East will be interesting as UKIP did stand there last time
So far UKIP vote down in Rainham and in Burnley where Lib Dems overtook them into 2nd
God, 2016 has been a horrible year for liberals, internationalists and the open-minded. Hillary winning will at least stop the anti-globalist, nationalist/left-nationalist juggernaut for a while. Trump wins? The horror film comes true, the world closes in upon itself.
If Trump wins, just need Wilders and Le Pen to win next year and the nightmare is complete. (Though I think the establishment will scrape home in each case in the end)
If Trump wins, imagine him returning the favour and helping Farage in a spring UK election?
God, 2016 has been a horrible year for liberals, internationalists and the open-minded. Hillary winning will at least stop the anti-globalist, nationalist/left-nationalist juggernaut for a while. Trump wins? The horror film comes true, the world closes in upon itself.
Trump is not going to win - but Clinton is dreadful and will struggle
If she wins, openness wins. The world wins. People who look at the world beyond their own front door win.
Hillary won't be looking at much beyond her own cell door....
God, 2016 has been a horrible year for liberals, internationalists and the open-minded. Hillary winning will at least stop the anti-globalist, nationalist/left-nationalist juggernaut for a while. Trump wins? The horror film comes true, the world closes in upon itself.
Trump is not going to win - but Clinton is dreadful and will struggle
If she wins, openness wins. The world wins. People who look at the world beyond their own front door win.
Hillary won't be looking at much beyond her own cell door....
What a pile of crap from someone who really ought to know better. What odds are you offering on her incarceration?
God, 2016 has been a horrible year for liberals, internationalists and the open-minded. Hillary winning will at least stop the anti-globalist, nationalist/left-nationalist juggernaut for a while. Trump wins? The horror film comes true, the world closes in upon itself.
If Trump wins, just need Wilders and Le Pen to win next year and the nightmare is complete. (Though I think the establishment will scrape home in each case in the end)
If Trump wins, imagine him returning the favour and helping Farage in a spring UK election?
Biggest gainers the Tories there though, Medway Tories are very Eurosceptic
Assertion. UKIP VOTE DOWN. Get over yourself.
Biggest gainers Eurosceptic Tories, UKIP are obviously not going to make gains against candidates who back triggering Article 50 now, as I said they are likely to make gains against candidates who want to delay triggering Article 50 beyond May's March deadline
God, 2016 has been a horrible year for liberals, internationalists and the open-minded. Hillary winning will at least stop the anti-globalist, nationalist/left-nationalist juggernaut for a while. Trump wins? The horror film comes true, the world closes in upon itself.
Trump is not going to win - but Clinton is dreadful and will struggle
If she wins, openness wins. The world wins. People who look at the world beyond their own front door win.
Hillary won't be looking at much beyond her own cell door....
God, 2016 has been a horrible year for liberals, internationalists and the open-minded. Hillary winning will at least stop the anti-globalist, nationalist/left-nationalist juggernaut for a while. Trump wins? The horror film comes true, the world closes in upon itself.
If Trump wins, just need Wilders and Le Pen to win next year and the nightmare is complete. (Though I think the establishment will scrape home in each case in the end)
If Trump wins, imagine him returning the favour and helping Farage in a spring UK election?
God, 2016 has been a horrible year for liberals, internationalists and the open-minded. Hillary winning will at least stop the anti-globalist, nationalist/left-nationalist juggernaut for a while. Trump wins? The horror film comes true, the world closes in upon itself.
Trump is not going to win - but Clinton is dreadful and will struggle
If she wins, openness wins. The world wins. People who look at the world beyond their own front door win.
Hillary won't be looking at much beyond her own cell door....
Prisoner: Cell Block
And you. Odds please on a Hillary incarceration. Put up or shut up.
I hesitate to put myself in the same camp as Alastair Meeks (particularly when he's been so royally pompous, rude and condescending these past few months) but I've never taken The Express seriously.
The Daily Mail however, I do take far more seriously, and that headline makes me worry*.
(*before Remainers get excited thinking I'm agreeing with them, I don't, and I won't, but this is the sort of thing that risks being unleashed if Brexit is gleefully frustrated, or the substance of it is, even if I agree the Mail is bang out of order in stoking it)
Well -the Daily Mail was Adolf Hitler's favourite British newspaper!
Biggest gainers the Tories there though, Medway Tories are very Eurosceptic
Assertion. UKIP VOTE DOWN. Get over yourself.
Biggest gainers Eurosceptic Tories, UKIP are obviously not going to make gains against candidates who back triggering Article 50 now, as I said they are likely to make gains against candidates who want to delay triggering Article 50 beyond May's March deadline
You mean like in Burnley where UKIP down 6%. Time to stop digging.
God, 2016 has been a horrible year for liberals, internationalists and the open-minded. Hillary winning will at least stop the anti-globalist, nationalist/left-nationalist juggernaut for a while. Trump wins? The horror film comes true, the world closes in upon itself.
Trump is not going to win - but Clinton is dreadful and will struggle
If she wins, openness wins. The world wins. People who look at the world beyond their own front door win.
Hillary won't be looking at much beyond her own cell door....
Prisoner: Cell Block
And you. Odds please on a Hillary incarceration. Put up or shut up.
It was just a visual gag. Odds on a Hillary incarceration: 0.01%
I hesitate to put myself in the same camp as Alastair Meeks (particularly when he's been so royally pompous, rude and condescending these past few months) but I've never taken The Express seriously.
The Daily Mail however, I do take far more seriously, and that headline makes me worry*.
(*before Remainers get excited thinking I'm agreeing with them, I don't, and I won't, but this is the sort of thing that risks being unleashed if Brexit is gleefully frustrated, or the substance of it is, even if I agree the Mail is bang out of order in stoking it)
Well -the Daily Mail was Adolf Hitler's favourite British newspaper!
look, I'm no fan of the mail. but ffs, that was quite a while ago.
most of the liberal left were probably fans of eugenics at the time
Some of the newspaper commentary on the A50 descision has been truly disgusting today. I'm normally pretty fine with Brexit, and not someone who thinks it will be a total disaster or something we should block, and yet I find myself wanting it blocked by any means necessary just to fight back against the bile peddled by the press. I don't think they are helping their cause, they are just further motivating opposition to it.
God, 2016 has been a horrible year for liberals, internationalists and the open-minded. Hillary winning will at least stop the anti-globalist, nationalist/left-nationalist juggernaut for a while. Trump wins? The horror film comes true, the world closes in upon itself.
Trump is not going to win - but Clinton is dreadful and will struggle
If she wins, openness wins. The world wins. People who look at the world beyond their own front door win.
Hillary won't be looking at much beyond her own cell door....
Prisoner: Cell Block
And you. Odds please on a Hillary incarceration. Put up or shut up.
It was just a visual gag. Odds on a Hillary incarceration: 0.01%
Biggest gainers the Tories there though, Medway Tories are very Eurosceptic
Assertion. UKIP VOTE DOWN. Get over yourself.
Biggest gainers Eurosceptic Tories, UKIP are obviously not going to make gains against candidates who back triggering Article 50 now, as I said they are likely to make gains against candidates who want to delay triggering Article 50 beyond May's March deadline
You mean like in Burnley where UKIP down 6%. Time to stop digging.
If Burnley MP Julie Cooper votes down triggering Article 50 next year or partakes in obstructing and delaying the triggering of Article 50 beyond the PM's March target she will be a top UKIP target, Burnley voted 67% Leave.
Second by election of the night seeing UKIP making more progress than Labour, the LDs and the Tories, LDs see the biggest fall, seems this court judgement could be a godsend for the Kippers and a disaster for the yellows!
Really? In the other by election UKIP only made progress because they had no candidate at the previous election!
Biggest gainers the Tories there though, Medway Tories are very Eurosceptic
Assertion. UKIP VOTE DOWN. Get over yourself.
Biggest gainers Eurosceptic Tories, UKIP are obviously not going to make gains against candidates who back triggering Article 50 now, as I said they are likely to make gains against candidates who want to delay triggering Article 50 beyond May's March deadline
You mean like in Burnley where UKIP down 6%. Time to stop digging.
If Burnley MP Julie Cooper votes down triggering Article 50 next year or partakes in obstructing and delaying the triggering of Article 50 beyond the PM's March target she will be a top UKIP target, Burnley voted 67% Leave.
You began by asserting big UKIP VOTE rises earlier. Now that has been shown t to be a load of bollocks you've shifted to next year's whatifs. More bollocks.
Looking like we've reached the point when the full polling effects of the FBI/email stuff has emerged. Net result, Clinton went from +5 to +3, more or less. If that's the case, Clinton's odds should start dropping soon, because Trump has run out of time.
Biggest gainers the Tories there though, Medway Tories are very Eurosceptic
Assertion. UKIP VOTE DOWN. Get over yourself.
Biggest gainers Eurosceptic Tories, UKIP are obviously not going to make gains against candidates who back triggering Article 50 now, as I said they are likely to make gains against candidates who want to delay triggering Article 50 beyond May's March deadline
You mean like in Burnley where UKIP down 6%. Time to stop digging.
If Burnley MP Julie Cooper votes down triggering Article 50 next year or partakes in obstructing and delaying the triggering of Article 50 beyond the PM's March target she will be a top UKIP target, Burnley voted 67% Leave.
You began by asserting big UKIP VOTE rises earlier. Now that has been shown t to be a load of bollocks you've shifted to next year's whatifs. More bollocks.
It looks like a mixed bag for UKIP overall at the moment and if Parliament waves through triggering of Article 50 with few problems UKIP are unlikely to see any imminent revival (at least until the Brexit terms are determined if they lean towards soft Brexit). If Parliament delays the triggering of Article 50 beyond March however that is when UKIP will start to see a real boost
I posted this earlier but the night shift might want to play as well.
You can currently back Clinton to win the popular vote at 1.41 and Trump to win the Presidency at 3.45. That's a 100% book (though you will have to pay commission). Nate Silver gives you a 10.7% chance of winning both bets, and only a 0.5% chance of losing both.
Biggest gainers the Tories there though, Medway Tories are very Eurosceptic
Assertion. UKIP VOTE DOWN. Get over yourself.
Biggest gainers Eurosceptic Tories, UKIP are obviously not going to make gains against candidates who back triggering Article 50 now, as I said they are likely to make gains against candidates who want to delay triggering Article 50 beyond May's March deadline
You mean like in Burnley where UKIP down 6%. Time to stop digging.
If Burnley MP Julie Cooper votes down triggering Article 50 next year or partakes in obstructing and delaying the triggering of Article 50 beyond the PM's March target she will be a top UKIP target, Burnley voted 67% Leave.
You began by asserting big UKIP VOTE rises earlier. Now that has been shown t to be a load of bollocks you've shifted to next year's whatifs. More bollocks.
It looks like a mixed bag for UKIP overall at the moment and if Parliament waves through triggering of Article 50 with few problems UKIP are unlikely to see any imminent revival (at least until the Brexit terms are determined if they lean towards soft Brexit). If Parliament delays the triggering of Article 50 beyond March however that is when UKIP will start to see a real boost
Certainly true that they would see a big vote boost, but the alliance in 1983 got 25% of the vote and managed only 23 seats. UKIP currently has very poor vote efficiency, so they may struggle to turn increased votes into a meaningful gain in seats. Same problem held back the LDs in 2010, poor vote distribution.
Have been looking at the Labrokes "Clinton Firewall Finder" odds and think that there is much better odds available if you think that Trump is going to win than betting on him on the overall outcome.
Going down the list you can get 25/1 each on Colorado and Pennsylvania as being the 1st one that Hilary wins. Every state before that on the list looks like a must win for Donald if he is going to get to 270. (TX,MT,GA,AZ,IA,OH,NC,FL,NV,NH)
Biggest gainers the Tories there though, Medway Tories are very Eurosceptic
Assertion. UKIP VOTE DOWN. Get over yourself.
Biggest gainers Eurosceptic Tories, UKIP are obviously not going to make gains against candidates who back triggering Article 50 now, as I said they are likely to make gains against candidates who want to delay triggering Article 50 beyond May's March deadline
You mean like in Burnley where UKIP down 6%. Time to stop digging.
If Burnley MP Julie Cooper votes down triggering Article 50 next year or partakes in obstructing and delaying the triggering of Article 50 beyond the PM's March target she will be a top UKIP target, Burnley voted 67% Leave.
You began by asserting big UKIP VOTE rises earlier. Now that has been shown t to be a load of bollocks you've shifted to next year's whatifs. More bollocks.
It looks like a mixed bag for UKIP overall at the moment and if Parliament waves through triggering of Article 50 with few problems UKIP are unlikely to see any imminent revival (at least until the Brexit terms are determined if they lean towards soft Brexit). If Parliament delays the triggering of Article 50 beyond March however that is when UKIP will start to see a real boost
Certainly true that they would see a big vote boost, but the alliance in 1983 got 25% of the vote and managed only 23 seats. UKIP currently has very poor vote efficiency, so they may struggle to turn increased votes into a meaningful gain in seats. Same problem held back the LDs in 2010, poor vote distribution.
Given over 400 seats voted Leave and 17 million voters UKIP have a rather larger potential pool than the SDP and LDs if a majority of MPs were stupid enough to vote down Brexit. Goodnight
On June 23rd, the majority of those who could be bothered to turn out and vote voted to Leave. By the morning of June 24th, a significant fraction of those who had campaigned to Remain - led by many furious, thwarted ruling class figures in politics and the media - were already starting the fight to overturn the decision, because it didn't suit them. They have been insisting ever since that the Leave vote was motivated by bigotry, racism, xenophobia and stupidity; that the result is invalid because the margin of victory wasn't big enough, or because thicko voters were taken in by lies told by the Leave campaign, rather than being able to make rational decisions about their own future themselves; and that, contrary to what we were told in official Government literature before the referendum, the vote was only advisory, and that MPs have not merely the right but a duty to disregard the outcome because they know better than the public (despite having voted by something like a ten to one margin to delegate the decision to the public in the first place.)
In short, the mud isn't being thrown wholly, or even mostly, by angry Brexiters. The campaign to denigrate, malign, stereotype, belittle, and ultimately to ignore all 17.4 million people who voted to Leave has been relentless, it is still carrying on, and it will continue to carry on for years - courtesy of all the many, many people whose respect for democracy and for the rule of law only lasts for so long as it gives them what they want, and not for one millisecond longer. This doesn't excuse the crass and unnecessary attacks that these newspapers have made upon the judiciary, but it does provide a context for them.
If people who should know better create an atmosphere that deliberately undermines democratic values and our basic rights - by questioning the capability of the electorate to choose, and by saying that the will of the people should be set aside when it runs contrary to the wishes of elites - then they are asking for exactly this kind of trouble. When certain politicians state, as they have, that they will vote against Brexit in Parliament and want to see the referendum result as a whole overturned - and when their allies in the press cheerlead for just such an outcome - then we should not be wholly surprised that challenges to the process in the courts are viewed by a lot of voters as part of the broader attempt to reverse the referendum result. And, by extension, that the judges finding in favour of such challenges are also seen by these people as being party to the self-same establishment conspiracy.
This is what happens when politicians encourage, through their malign actions, a corrosive lack of trust in our national institutions. It doesn't just eat away at them, or their opponents. It starts to devour everything.
Have been looking at the Labrokes "Clinton Firewall Finder" odds and think that there is much better odds available if you think that Trump is going to win than betting on him on the overall outcome.
Going down the list you can get 25/1 each on Colorado and Pennsylvania as being the 1st one that Hilary wins. Every state before that on the list looks like a must win for Donald if he is going to get to 270. (TX,MT,GA,AZ,IA,OH,NC,FL,NV,NH)
Is there something that I am missing?
States don't necessarily fall in order. He could win Colorado and lose New Hampshire.
And in a lot of scenarios where Trump becomes President he wins these two as well.
Have been looking at the Labrokes "Clinton Firewall Finder" odds and think that there is much better odds available if you think that Trump is going to win than betting on him on the overall outcome.
Going down the list you can get 25/1 each on Colorado and Pennsylvania as being the 1st one that Hilary wins. Every state before that on the list looks like a must win for Donald if he is going to get to 270. (TX,MT,GA,AZ,IA,OH,NC,FL,NV,NH)
Is there something that I am missing?
States don't necessarily fall in order. He could win Colorado and lose New Hampshire.
And in a lot of scenarios where Trump becomes President he wins these two as well.
I agree that the states don't fall in order, hence the vastly differing prices for the states in the list before Colorado and Pennsylvania. However I think that it is unlikely that Hillary loses both of them since they have quite different demographics and she is ahead by about 3% in both according to the polls. If there is a late swing to Donald in Penn. then I think that he has won New Hampshire as well anyway but Colorado would require a different type of voter to go Republican. I think that it is the stronger performance of Johnson in Colorado in the polls that gives the Republicans a chance to squeeze a more sizeable 3rd party vote to gain on the Democrats in that state.
Given over 400 seats voted Leave and 17 million voters UKIP have a rather larger potential pool than the SDP and LDs if a majority of MPs were stupid enough to vote down Brexit. Goodnight
With respect, I think you're making the same mistake as some of the more zealous continuity Remainers. The EU referendum result is an enormously important issue for all kinds of reasons, but taking a fundamentalist line on this issue is not the key determinant of the choice that will be made by the bulk of voters in the next general election. That is likely, as is typical, to be dominated by perceived managerial and economic competence, followed secondarily by a raft of issues including Europe, but also the NHS, immigration, education and so on.
Moreover, Ukip suffers not only from an inefficient voter distribution but also a low ceiling of support, and the new leader is going to face an uphill struggle changing that - and they're going to be starting from a lower base thanks to the bleed of traditional Tory votes back to Theresa May. They also have very few marginal seats to exploit.
A major advance by the party, under circumstances where Labour continues to poll weakly and Brexit remains a salient issue for the reasons previously suggested, is not entirely beyond the bounds of possibility. But, surely, it remains a very tall order?
Have been looking at the Labrokes "Clinton Firewall Finder" odds and think that there is much better odds available if you think that Trump is going to win than betting on him on the overall outcome.
Going down the list you can get 25/1 each on Colorado and Pennsylvania as being the 1st one that Hilary wins. Every state before that on the list looks like a must win for Donald if he is going to get to 270. (TX,MT,GA,AZ,IA,OH,NC,FL,NV,NH)
Is there something that I am missing?
I'm on TX, FL, NV and NH in this market - all at better odds than current.
Once you get too low then it becomes very hard to win in this sort of market due to its very nature.
This is what happens when politicians encourage, through their malign actions, a corrosive lack of trust in our national institutions. It doesn't just eat away at them, or their opponents. It starts to devour everything.
Like when they say "We have had enough of experts". When rationalism gives way to naked populism.
It doesn't just eat away at them, or their opponents. It starts to devour everything.
Comments
There does look to be a reasonable correlation with economic difficulties, with Leave polling highly in the Early eighties, early nineties and post GFC.
http://theconversation.com/polling-history-40-years-of-british-views-on-in-or-out-of-europe-61250
I have had a most enjoyable evening seeing The Specials. Not as energetic as they used to be but still full of righteous anger against racism, and the class system. A very good antidote to our toxic Brexit and Trumpist politics.
https://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Small samples - but includes:
Nevada - Clinton +12 (sample 311)
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/
Con 1066
LDem 852
Lab 223
UKIP 167
If the Ipsos polls as a whole are right then it would be a massive Clinton win in terms of ECVs.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5964.html
I think Trump will win though.
CON: 46.2% (+3.7)
LDEM: 36.9% (+23.7)
LAB: 9.7% (-8.2)
UKIP: 7.2% (-6.6)
most of the liberal left were probably fans of eugenics at the time
CON: 73.3% (+6.6)
UKIP: 13.5% (-8.1)
LAB: 8.4% (-3.3)
GRN: 4.8% (+4.8)
LD 828
Con 553
UKIP 286
Lab 132
Lib Dem 236
Labour 115
You can currently back Clinton to win the popular vote at 1.41 and Trump to win the Presidency at 3.45. That's a 100% book (though you will have to pay commission). Nate Silver gives you a 10.7% chance of winning both bets, and only a 0.5% chance of losing both.
Con 30.6% plus 1.0%
Lab 30.9% minus 0.7%
LDem 16.5% plus 6.5%
UKIP 9.9% minus 3.0%
Green 2.2% minus 4.8%
Nats 9.1% plus 3.5%
Ind 0.9% minus 2.5%
Going down the list you can get 25/1 each on Colorado and Pennsylvania as being the 1st one that Hilary wins. Every state before that on the list looks like a must win for Donald if he is going to get to 270. (TX,MT,GA,AZ,IA,OH,NC,FL,NV,NH)
Is there something that I am missing?
On June 23rd, the majority of those who could be bothered to turn out and vote voted to Leave. By the morning of June 24th, a significant fraction of those who had campaigned to Remain - led by many furious, thwarted ruling class figures in politics and the media - were already starting the fight to overturn the decision, because it didn't suit them. They have been insisting ever since that the Leave vote was motivated by bigotry, racism, xenophobia and stupidity; that the result is invalid because the margin of victory wasn't big enough, or because thicko voters were taken in by lies told by the Leave campaign, rather than being able to make rational decisions about their own future themselves; and that, contrary to what we were told in official Government literature before the referendum, the vote was only advisory, and that MPs have not merely the right but a duty to disregard the outcome because they know better than the public (despite having voted by something like a ten to one margin to delegate the decision to the public in the first place.)
In short, the mud isn't being thrown wholly, or even mostly, by angry Brexiters. The campaign to denigrate, malign, stereotype, belittle, and ultimately to ignore all 17.4 million people who voted to Leave has been relentless, it is still carrying on, and it will continue to carry on for years - courtesy of all the many, many people whose respect for democracy and for the rule of law only lasts for so long as it gives them what they want, and not for one millisecond longer. This doesn't excuse the crass and unnecessary attacks that these newspapers have made upon the judiciary, but it does provide a context for them.
If people who should know better create an atmosphere that deliberately undermines democratic values and our basic rights - by questioning the capability of the electorate to choose, and by saying that the will of the people should be set aside when it runs contrary to the wishes of elites - then they are asking for exactly this kind of trouble. When certain politicians state, as they have, that they will vote against Brexit in Parliament and want to see the referendum result as a whole overturned - and when their allies in the press cheerlead for just such an outcome - then we should not be wholly surprised that challenges to the process in the courts are viewed by a lot of voters as part of the broader attempt to reverse the referendum result. And, by extension, that the judges finding in favour of such challenges are also seen by these people as being party to the self-same establishment conspiracy.
This is what happens when politicians encourage, through their malign actions, a corrosive lack of trust in our national institutions. It doesn't just eat away at them, or their opponents. It starts to devour everything.
And in a lot of scenarios where Trump becomes President he wins these two as well.
I think that it is the stronger performance of Johnson in Colorado in the polls that gives the Republicans a chance to squeeze a more sizeable 3rd party vote to gain on the Democrats in that state.
Moreover, Ukip suffers not only from an inefficient voter distribution but also a low ceiling of support, and the new leader is going to face an uphill struggle changing that - and they're going to be starting from a lower base thanks to the bleed of traditional Tory votes back to Theresa May. They also have very few marginal seats to exploit.
A major advance by the party, under circumstances where Labour continues to poll weakly and Brexit remains a salient issue for the reasons previously suggested, is not entirely beyond the bounds of possibility. But, surely, it remains a very tall order?
It's "broken, sleazy Kippers on the slide"
Once you get too low then it becomes very hard to win in this sort of market due to its very nature.
It doesn't just eat away at them, or their opponents. It starts to devour everything.