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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s local by-election previewed by Harry Hayfield

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  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,842

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP
    UKIP are on their death bed . Their candidates for the 2 Welsh by elections today have had to be drafted in from Swindon and Skegness .
    The danger is that this could resurrect UKIP. In my opinion there is a lot of excitable discussion tonight but in the end a vote on A50 will be taken and passed. The HOL cannot stop the legislation but can delay it and generally mess around with it.

    However that would result in an unstoppable demand for the abolition of the HOL and TM could appoint sufficient conservatives peers to see this happen.

    When push comes to shove I do not think the HOL will obstruct the will of the people and the HOC and that A50 will be served though maybe somewhat delayed.
    It's not going to resurrect UKIP. Kippers are all settled back into their Jeremy Kyle box sets. Most of them probably think we've already left.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922
    Scott_P said:
    Isn't the Ports Directive an up and coming one we tried to block?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,682
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP
    That really is gibberish! You are assuming that people like myself who voted Leave last June would see Brexit as the most important issue in a General Election. To me - despite being a political anorak- the EU is a minor issue and will have zero influence on how I cast my vote. I strongly suspect that any election called in response to Brexit would end up being dominated by other issues. Ted Heath found that out in February 1974.
    72% voted in EUref, more than any other election since 1992, I am sorry but the EU and immigration ARE the main political issues at the moment, only the NHS gets an occasional look-in alongside them. You are a middle class Labour voter, not at all typical of the white working class Labour voters who were the bulk of the Labour Leave vote
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    MP_SE said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP
    That really is gibberish! You are assuming that people like myself who voted Leave last June would see Brexit as the most important issue in a General Election. To me - despite being a political anorak- the EU is a minor issue and will have zero influence on how I cast my vote. I strongly suspect that any election called in response to Brexit would end up being dominated by other issues. Ted Heath found that out in February 1974.
    Like Jezbollah and McIRA.
    Or the failure of Osborne/Camerons austerity policies and the nation having suffered six years of economic sadomasochism for no good reason.Hammond's decision to abandon those policies has rather let the cat out of the bag that such a policy was merely an option favoured by the Government all along! The LibDems would also have much to answer for .
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,076
    MP_SE said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    GIN1138 said:

    The establishment is playing a very dangerous game.

    Following the rule of law. The bastards. Very dangerous...
    No, trying to stop Brexit happening (Ali Campbell admitted that's the real "game" in his tweet) which is what we all knew anyway.

    Dangerous times for this country.
    Indeed.

    The woman who brought the Article 50 challenge revealed her true colours. She originally claimed that she just wanted to ensure that the law was followed correctly. It has subsequently come out that she is a Eurofanatic who felt physically sick at the result.
    The two are not mutually exclusive.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,682

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP
    UKIP are on their death bed . Their candidates for the 2 Welsh by elections today have had to be drafted in from Swindon and Skegness .
    Correction, UKIP were no longer making much progress after the UK voted Leave, however that was before the judiciary and Remainers in Parliament began the process of throwing back the votes of 17 million Leave voters in their face
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    HYUFD said:

    Correction, UKIP were no longer making much progress after the UK voted Leave, however that was before the judiciary and Remainers in Parliament began the process of throwing back the votes of 17 million Leave voters in their face

    ...upholding the rule of law.

    Fixed it for you
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP
    UKIP are on their death bed . Their candidates for the 2 Welsh by elections today have had to be drafted in from Swindon and Skegness .
    Correction, UKIP were no longer making much progress after the UK voted Leave, however that was before the judiciary and Remainers in Parliament began the process of throwing back the votes of 17 million Leave voters in their face
    So we will see sweeping gains for UKIP tonight as all these disgruntled Leavers rush out in anger and vote UKIP ?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,842
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP
    UKIP are on their death bed . Their candidates for the 2 Welsh by elections today have had to be drafted in from Swindon and Skegness .
    Correction, UKIP were no longer making much progress after the UK voted Leave, however that was before the judiciary and Remainers in Parliament began the process of throwing back the votes of 17 million Leave voters in their face
    Do you seriously think a party which has experienced all that UKIP has these past few months is a serious political force?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,702
    In a GE, Brexit supporters overwhelming concern will be to get Brexit.

    They are not going to waste their vote on UKIP which can't win many seats under FPTP.

    Con manifesto will make clear that Con will implement Brexit. I guess Lab will at least say the same.

    It'll then be a question of who voters have most confidence in.

    I would imagine far more will trust May to get the job done than Corbyn.

    Anyone other than a hardcore Lab supporter is not going to risk voting UKIP if they think it increases the risk of getting Corbyn.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,076
    Jonathan said:

    Well this is all jolly good fun isn't it.

    Yes, it is. Brightens up a dull day or two.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TOPPING said:

    Do you seriously think a party which has experienced all that UKIP has these past few months is a serious political force?

    https://twitter.com/msmithsonpb/status/794294193707503618
  • Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    Correction, UKIP were no longer making much progress after the UK voted Leave, however that was before the judiciary and Remainers in Parliament began the process of throwing back the votes of 17 million Leave voters in their face

    ...upholding the rule of law.

    Fixed it for you
    Scott you've been saying that all day.

    It took the high court to decide what the rule of law required. If they had decided otherwise, that would too have been "upholding the rule of law".
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922
    PlatoSaid said:
    Obama will probably just pardon her prior to leaving office.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,243
    edited November 2016

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP
    UKIP are on their death bed . Their candidates for the 2 Welsh by elections today have had to be drafted in from Swindon and Skegness .
    The danger is that this could resurrect UKIP. In my opinion there is a lot of excitable discussion tonight but in the end a vote on A50 will be taken and passed. The HOL cannot stop the legislation but can delay it and generally mess around with it.

    However that would result in an unstoppable demand for the abolition of the HOL and TM could appoint sufficient conservatives peers to see this happen.

    When push comes to shove I do not think the HOL will obstruct the will of the people and the HOC and that A50 will be served though maybe somewhat delayed.
    That would be the sensible outcome but I'm really not sure. I think there are a LOT of REMAIN MP's and Lords who are not thinking rationally and will actually vote this down even if it was to mean possible abolition of HoL and other potential disasters...

    Are there enough to stop A50 being implemented? We'll see...
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP
    UKIP are on their death bed . Their candidates for the 2 Welsh by elections today have had to be drafted in from Swindon and Skegness .
    Correction, UKIP were no longer making much progress after the UK voted Leave, however that was before the judiciary and Remainers in Parliament began the process of throwing back the votes of 17 million Leave voters in their face
    Correction, you're hypothesising UKIP progress 10 hours after a court judgment on the basis of precisely zero polling info.
    Or are you predicting a 'thrown in your face' surge in tonight's by-elections?
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited November 2016

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP
    UKIP are on their death bed . Their candidates for the 2 Welsh by elections today have had to be drafted in from Swindon and Skegness .
    Correction, UKIP were no longer making much progress after the UK voted Leave, however that was before the judiciary and Remainers in Parliament began the process of throwing back the votes of 17 million Leave voters in their face
    So we will see sweeping gains for UKIP tonight as all these disgruntled Leavers rush out in anger and vote UKIP ?
    No, but a snap general election would see seats like Hartlepool become very competitive.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,842
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP
    UKIP are on their death bed . Their candidates for the 2 Welsh by elections today have had to be drafted in from Swindon and Skegness .
    The danger is that this could resurrect UKIP. In my opinion there is a lot of excitable discussion tonight but in the end a vote on A50 will be taken and passed. The HOL cannot stop the legislation but can delay it and generally mess around with it.

    However that would result in an unstoppable demand for the abolition of the HOL and TM could appoint sufficient conservatives peers to see this happen.

    When push comes to shove I do not think the HOL will obstruct the will of the people and the HOC and that A50 will be served though maybe somewhat delayed.
    That would be the sensible outcome but I'm really not sure. I think there are a LOT of REMAIN MP's and Lords who are not thinking rationally and will actually vote this down even if it was to mean possible abolition of HoL and other potential disasters...
    WWIII?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    AnneJGP said:

    Yes, it is. Brightens up a dull day or two.

    It has been most entertaining, and illuminating.

    The Brexiteers demanded that the UK Parliament be Sovereign, and that UK judges are supreme.

    Today confirmed both of those things, and they have responded by threatening civil unrest and taking over the judiciary.

    They are not, and never were democrats, just demagogues hiding behind popular rhetoric...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP
    UKIP are on their death bed . Their candidates for the 2 Welsh by elections today have had to be drafted in from Swindon and Skegness .
    Correction, UKIP were no longer making much progress after the UK voted Leave, however that was before the judiciary and Remainers in Parliament began the process of throwing back the votes of 17 million Leave voters in their face
    Correction, you're hypothesising UKIP progress 10 hours after a court judgment on the basis of precisely zero polling info.
    Or are you predicting a 'thrown in your face' surge in tonight's by-elections?
    I think it's a fair statement to say events may change polling figures.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,076
    GIN1138 said:

    justin124 said:

    (snipped)

    Whether or not the EU is a "minor" issue this is moving WAY beyond the issue of the EU per se.

    The people voted and they expect their wishes to be implemented. If that is ignored or thwarted your effectively setting up a battle of wills between the government and the governed.

    Then it become the "principle of thing" rather than being about the EU per se... It won't end well...
    Not quite government versus governed.

    At the moment it seems more likely that the government and 52% of the governed are on one side, whilst a majority of MPs and the other 48% of the electorate are on the other.

    And it's the majority of MPs that matters, probably.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,682

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP
    UKIP are on their death bed . Their candidates for the 2 Welsh by elections today have had to be drafted in from Swindon and Skegness .
    Correction, UKIP were no longer making much progress after the UK voted Leave, however that was before the judiciary and Remainers in Parliament began the process of throwing back the votes of 17 million Leave voters in their face
    Correction, you're hypothesising UKIP progress 10 hours after a court judgment on the basis of precisely zero polling info.
    Or are you predicting a 'thrown in your face' surge in tonight's by-elections?
    The polling info is 17 million UK voters voted to leave the EU, if Parliament then prevents the UK from leaving the EU the resultant swing to UKIP is obvious
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    Jonathan said:

    Well this is all jolly good fun isn't it.

    It's such a hoot seeing all those sad little Brexit buffoons getting their knickers in a twist about the court case..


    Listen little pin head Brexit people....the court case doesn't amount to anything. You hold all the cards...nothing has changed about the referendum.....


  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP
    That really is gibberish! You are assuming that people like myself who voted Leave last June would see Brexit as the most important issue in a General Election. To me - despite being a political anorak- the EU is a minor issue and will have zero influence on how I cast my vote. I strongly suspect that any election called in response to Brexit would end up being dominated by other issues. Ted Heath found that out in February 1974.
    72% voted in EUref, more than any other election since 1992, I am sorry but the EU and immigration ARE the main political issues at the moment, only the NHS gets an occasional look-in alongside them. You are a middle class Labour voter, not at all typical of the white working class Labour voters who were the bulk of the Labour Leave vote
    You are only speaking for yourself - and really cannot transfer your opinion to the electorate at large. Most people were utterly sick to death of Brexit by the time we arrived at June 23rd. The idea that they would look forward to a five-week General Election focussed on Brexit and ignoring almost everything else is pie in the sky. If TM tried to call an election on that basis she might well come to regret it. Her support - as it is - appears to be a mile wide and an inch thick.
  • GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP
    UKIP are on their death bed . Their candidates for the 2 Welsh by elections today have had to be drafted in from Swindon and Skegness .
    The danger is that this could resurrect UKIP. In my opinion there is a lot of excitable discussion tonight but in the end a vote on A50 will be taken and passed. The HOL cannot stop the legislation but can delay it and generally mess around with it.

    However that would result in an unstoppable demand for the abolition of the HOL and TM could appoint sufficient conservatives peers to see this happen.

    When push comes to shove I do not think the HOL will obstruct the will of the people and the HOC and that A50 will be served though maybe somewhat delayed.
    That would be the sensible outcome but I'm really not sure. I think there are a LOT of REMAIN MP's and Lords who are not thinking rationally and will actually vote this down even if it was to mean possible abolition of HoL and other potential disasters...

    Are there enough to stop A50 being implemented? We'll see...
    Labour leader in the HOL has said they do not want to wreck the serving of A50 and will act responsibly, if that is possible with labour.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922
    justin124 said:



    You are only speaking for yourself - and really cannot transfer your opinion to the electorate at large. Most people were utterly sick to death of Brexit by the time we arrived at June 23rd. The idea that they would look forward to a five-week General Election focussed on Brexit and ignoring almost everything else is pie in the sky. If TM tried to call an election on that basis she might well come to regret it. Her support - as it is - appears to be a mile wide and an inch thick.

    On what basis are you making the mile wide inch think claim?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,682
    edited November 2016
    MikeL said:

    In a GE, Brexit supporters overwhelming concern will be to get Brexit.

    They are not going to waste their vote on UKIP which can't win many seats under FPTP.

    Con manifesto will make clear that Con will implement Brexit. I guess Lab will at least say the same.

    It'll then be a question of who voters have most confidence in.

    I would imagine far more will trust May to get the job done than Corbyn.

    Anyone other than a hardcore Lab supporter is not going to risk voting UKIP if they think it increases the risk of getting Corbyn.

    That depends, if your Tory MP voted down Article 50, Anna Soubry say, of course you are going to vote UKIP to get an MP who actually will vote for Article 50 and ensure Parliament does implement it
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,498
    Scott_P said:

    The Brexiteers demanded that the UK Parliament be Sovereign, and that UK judges are supreme.

    Today confirmed both of those things, and they have responded by threatening civil unrest and taking over the judiciary.

    The liberal minority of Brexiteers are still in denial about the nature of the movement they've exploited.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''The Brexiteers demanded that the UK Parliament be Sovereign, and that UK judges are supreme.''

    Government referendum leaflet

    'This is your decision. The government will implement what you decide''
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited November 2016

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP
    UKIP are on their death bed . Their candidates for the 2 Welsh by elections today have had to be drafted in from Swindon and Skegness .
    The danger is that this could resurrect UKIP. In my opinion there is a lot of excitable discussion tonight but in the end a vote on A50 will be taken and passed. The HOL cannot stop the legislation but can delay it and generally mess around with it.

    However that would result in an unstoppable demand for the abolition of the HOL and TM could appoint sufficient conservatives peers to see this happen.

    When push comes to shove I do not think the HOL will obstruct the will of the people and the HOC and that A50 will be served though maybe somewhat delayed.
    That would be the sensible outcome but I'm really not sure. I think there are a LOT of REMAIN MP's and Lords who are not thinking rationally and will actually vote this down even if it was to mean possible abolition of HoL and other potential disasters...

    Are there enough to stop A50 being implemented? We'll see...
    Labour leader in the HOL has said they do not want to wreck the serving of A50 and will act responsibly, if that is possible with labour.
    The sane ones know how their constituencies voted and understand that direct democracy trumps all the sovereignty arguments.
  • TOPPING said:

    It's a bit Daily Mail on here today isn't it.

    Brexiters hold your nerve and stop bleating like Corporal Jones.

    We're still leaving just that Parliament will endorse the process. May should have done this ages ago which would have avoided the general PB Leaver self-wetting today.

    I agree that this is the only right way to do it. But I do not share your confidence that as a result we will get Brexit. That doesn't mean we should condemn the decision of the courts but we should be clear on the consequences.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    PlatoSaid said:
    It's not just the Dallas IRS office. FBI field offices in NYC, DC, Dallas and California are investigating the Foundation, fighting the increasing efforts of AG Loretta Lynch to shut the FBI investigation down completely.

    They are looking at RICO for the Foundation.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,682
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP
    UKIP are on their death bed . Their candidates for the 2 Welsh by elections today have had to be drafted in from Swindon and Skegness .
    Correction, UKIP were no longer making much progress after the UK voted Leave, however that was before the judiciary and Remainers in Parliament began the process of throwing back the votes of 17 million Leave voters in their face
    Do you seriously think a party which has experienced all that UKIP has these past few months is a serious political force?
    Of course if Leave voters feel betrayed and under a leader like Paul Nuttall
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,682
    edited November 2016

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP
    UKIP are on their death bed . Their candidates for the 2 Welsh by elections today have had to be drafted in from Swindon and Skegness .
    Correction, UKIP were no longer making much progress after the UK voted Leave, however that was before the judiciary and Remainers in Parliament began the process of throwing back the votes of 17 million Leave voters in their face
    So we will see sweeping gains for UKIP tonight as all these disgruntled Leavers rush out in anger and vote UKIP ?
    If triggering Article 50 is delayed beyond May's intended March date of course you will see a boost for UKIP
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    taffys said:

    "This is your decision. The government will implement what you decide''

    £350m for the NHS

    If you want to trade campaign quotes...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922
    taffys said:

    ''The Brexiteers demanded that the UK Parliament be Sovereign, and that UK judges are supreme.''

    Government referendum leaflet

    'This is your decision. The government will implement what you decide''

    Unfortunately it turns out the government doesn't have that power.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,842
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP
    UKIP are on their death bed . Their candidates for the 2 Welsh by elections today have had to be drafted in from Swindon and Skegness .
    Correction, UKIP were no longer making much progress after the UK voted Leave, however that was before the judiciary and Remainers in Parliament began the process of throwing back the votes of 17 million Leave voters in their face
    Do you seriously think a party which has experienced all that UKIP has these past few months is a serious political force?
    Of course if Leave voters feel betrayed and under a leader like Paul Nuttall
    In your dreams. Is that the Laphroig talking?
  • RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP
    UKIP are on their death bed . Their candidates for the 2 Welsh by elections today have had to be drafted in from Swindon and Skegness .
    Correction, UKIP were no longer making much progress after the UK voted Leave, however that was before the judiciary and Remainers in Parliament began the process of throwing back the votes of 17 million Leave voters in their face
    Correction, you're hypothesising UKIP progress 10 hours after a court judgment on the basis of precisely zero polling info.
    Or are you predicting a 'thrown in your face' surge in tonight's by-elections?
    I think it's a fair statement to say events may change polling figures.
    Mibbes aye, mibbes naw, but there's no 'obvious' will about it.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited November 2016
    If you want to trade campaign quotes...

    Erm, that wasn't from the remain campaign. It was from the government.

    The remain campaign, actually, were even more adamant that leave meant leave.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,682
    edited November 2016
    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    As I have posted 416 constituencies voted Leave, you only need 326 for a majority

    And in how many of those will they be faced with a choice of more than 1 leave candidate?
    In every one they are not UKIP will be favourites
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Mibbes aye, mibbes naw, but there's no 'obvious' will about it.

    Isn't that Nicola's Indyref2 campaign slogan?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,842

    TOPPING said:

    It's a bit Daily Mail on here today isn't it.

    Brexiters hold your nerve and stop bleating like Corporal Jones.

    We're still leaving just that Parliament will endorse the process. May should have done this ages ago which would have avoided the general PB Leaver self-wetting today.

    I agree that this is the only right way to do it. But I do not share your confidence that as a result we will get Brexit. That doesn't mean we should condemn the decision of the courts but we should be clear on the consequences.
    I think the next challenge (not this procedural judgement) will be to avoid the trap you have just fallen into.

    "We will get Brexit."

    But what on earth is Brexit? I don't think May will be able to hold out too much longer on spelling it out.
  • Sky poll tonight - 48 - 45 in favour of TM serving A50
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/guardiannews/status/794294224317456384

    Turmoil may be slightly over-egging it. Slight delay, perhaps?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922
    Scott_P said:

    Mibbes aye, mibbes naw, but there's no 'obvious' will about it.

    Isn't that Nicola's Indyref2 campaign slogan?
    Oh, I forgot to mention, but this court case result is clearly Good For Yes. ;)
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Unfortunately it turns out the government doesn't have that power.''

    Frankly, I wasn't sure it did myself.

    The elite wouldn;t dream of actually giving the electorate the power to leave so easily, as we are now finding out.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Can someone reassure me about the American election?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    RobD said:

    justin124 said:



    You are only speaking for yourself - and really cannot transfer your opinion to the electorate at large. Most people were utterly sick to death of Brexit by the time we arrived at June 23rd. The idea that they would look forward to a five-week General Election focussed on Brexit and ignoring almost everything else is pie in the sky. If TM tried to call an election on that basis she might well come to regret it. Her support - as it is - appears to be a mile wide and an inch thick.

    On what basis are you making the mile wide inch think claim?
    I believe her popularity is currently due to a mixture of honeymoon and not having yet had to offend anyone.I see little evidence of burning enthusiasm for her in the way hat some people felt about Thatcher & Blair. Personally I like her lack of 'spin' and general straight forward manner - something she actually has in common with Corbyn! How well that will withstand very stormy waters is another matter.
  • Scott_P said:
    I sense Theresa May isn't the sort of woman to tolerate failure.
  • RobD said:

    justin124 said:



    You are only speaking for yourself - and really cannot transfer your opinion to the electorate at large. Most people were utterly sick to death of Brexit by the time we arrived at June 23rd. The idea that they would look forward to a five-week General Election focussed on Brexit and ignoring almost everything else is pie in the sky. If TM tried to call an election on that basis she might well come to regret it. Her support - as it is - appears to be a mile wide and an inch thick.

    On what basis are you making the mile wide inch think claim?
    Two bottles of wine?
  • taffys said:

    ''The Brexiteers demanded that the UK Parliament be Sovereign, and that UK judges are supreme.''

    Government referendum leaflet

    'This is your decision. The government will implement what you decide''

    Leaflets famously override constitutions.

    I think it's clause 417 of the US Constitution that reads, "Unless some Herbert has seen fit to Risograph some other sh1te, in which case whatever."
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,842

    Sky poll tonight - 48 - 45 in favour of TM serving A50

    Fantastic. And put to Parliament I'm sure there would be a larger majority than that. What is everyone getting so het up about? Parliament agreeing to serve A50 must be the least contentious issue in decades.

    Will Brexiters please take yes for an answer.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,742
    taffys said:

    ''The Brexiteers demanded that the UK Parliament be Sovereign, and that UK judges are supreme.''

    Though not if the judges are Jewish, gay, friends of Tony Blair or Welsh, obviously.

    If Theresa May does now introduce elected judges, I'm just hoping that Donald Trump will be available as a candidate for Lord Chief Justice...
  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    Tim_B said:

    PlatoSaid said:
    It's not just the Dallas IRS office. FBI field offices in NYC, DC, Dallas and California are investigating the Foundation, fighting the increasing efforts of AG Loretta Lynch to shut the FBI investigation down completely.

    They are looking at RICO for the Foundation.
    FBI have overplayed their hand, it's seeping into public consciousness now that everything that they have been doing has been politicised. Their history coming back to haunt them as agitators for the right and the problem not the solution.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Sky poll tonight - 48 - 45 in favour of TM serving A50

    Luckily representative democracy protects us from that sort of thing. I'm sure "should paedos be castrated" would get also get a nod from the electorate, but that's not how our law-making works.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605
    Freggles said:

    Can someone reassure me about the American election?

    The Atlantic is very, very big.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922
    Freggles said:

    Can someone reassure me about the American election?

    What's your betting position so we can properly calibrate our responses?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,682
    Scott_P said:
    It was the judges who made the decision and they would have made the same decision if it was Jonathan Sumption QC appearing as AG
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/telepolitics/status/794299902817931265

    I sense Theresa May isn't the sort of woman to tolerate failure.
    Yes, listen to her acceptance speech from a few days ago ;)
  • Freggles said:

    Can someone reassure me about the American election?

    Yes.

    In 2012 more polls were showing Romney ahead than have Trump ahead.
  • Dear mother of God, the Express has gone full-on mental:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/794300244481757185
  • glwglw Posts: 9,899
    RobD said:

    On what basis are you making the mile wide inch think claim?

    Nothing, he's utterly deluded when it comes to polling.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922
    Chris said:

    taffys said:

    ''The Brexiteers demanded that the UK Parliament be Sovereign, and that UK judges are supreme.''

    Though not if the judges are Jewish, gay, friends of Tony Blair or Welsh, obviously.

    If Theresa May does now introduce elected judges, I'm just hoping that Donald Trump will be available as a candidate for Lord Chief Justice...
    God, I sincerely hope elected judges are not on the cards :o
  • TOPPING said:

    It's a bit Daily Mail on here today isn't it.

    Brexiters hold your nerve and stop bleating like Corporal Jones.

    We're still leaving just that Parliament will endorse the process. May should have done this ages ago which would have avoided the general PB Leaver self-wetting today.

    I agree that this is the only right way to do it. But I do not share your confidence that as a result we will get Brexit. That doesn't mean we should condemn the decision of the courts but we should be clear on the consequences.
    I'm currently only about 65-70% certain Brexit will happen, now, in some form.

    I think there's a 30-35% chance a combination of events will conspire in the next few years to prevent it.

    The chance of a 'meaningful' Brexit, rather than just a technical exit from the EU, is probably no higher than evens.
  • Thrak said:

    Tim_B said:

    PlatoSaid said:
    It's not just the Dallas IRS office. FBI field offices in NYC, DC, Dallas and California are investigating the Foundation, fighting the increasing efforts of AG Loretta Lynch to shut the FBI investigation down completely.

    They are looking at RICO for the Foundation.
    FBI have overplayed their hand, it's seeping into public consciousness now that everything that they have been doing has been politicised. Their history coming back to haunt them as agitators for the right and the problem not the solution.
    Oh dear.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Leaflets famously override constitutions.''

    According to the Cameron government, yes they do.

    As I said, I wasn;t so naive as to believe it myself, I suspect like many other voters. Which is why UKIP are still in double figures, even though they have apparently achieved their goal.

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited November 2016

    taffys said:

    ''The Brexiteers demanded that the UK Parliament be Sovereign, and that UK judges are supreme.''

    Government referendum leaflet

    'This is your decision. The government will implement what you decide''

    Leaflets famously override constitutions.

    I think it's clause 417 of the US Constitution that reads, "Unless some Herbert has seen fit to Risograph some other sh1te, in which case whatever."
    Acerbic comment of the week. Well done, sir.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922

    Freggles said:

    Can someone reassure me about the American election?

    Yes.

    In 2012 more polls were showing Romney ahead than have Trump ahead.
    Interesting to look at this as a comparison:

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/fivethirtyeights-2012-forecast/
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,484

    Freggles said:

    Can someone reassure me about the American election?

    Yes.

    In 2012 more polls were showing Romney ahead than have Trump ahead.
    So...last time they got it wrong. And you are hoping they have not improved?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,498
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/guardiannews/status/794294224317456384

    Turmoil may be slightly over-egging it. Slight delay, perhaps?
    This is Britain. Slight muttering while we wait in the queue is to all intents and purposes a sign of the apocalypse.
  • The Telegraph and Express really are edited by a bunch of berks.

    No one has blocked Brexit.

    Brexit will still happen

    Honestly Leavers would have crumbled at Normandy, sack up you numpties.
  • GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP
    UKIP are on their death bed . Their candidates for the 2 Welsh by elections today have had to be drafted in from Swindon and Skegness .
    The danger is that this could resurrect UKIP. In my opinion there is a lot of excitable discussion tonight but in the end a vote on A50 will be taken and passed. The HOL cannot stop the legislation but can delay it and generally mess around with it.

    However that would result in an unstoppable demand for the abolition of the HOL and TM could appoint sufficient conservatives peers to see this happen.

    When push comes to shove I do not think the HOL will obstruct the will of the people and the HOC and that A50 will be served though maybe somewhat delayed.
    That would be the sensible outcome but I'm really not sure. I think there are a LOT of REMAIN MP's and Lords who are not thinking rationally and will actually vote this down even if it was to mean possible abolition of HoL and other potential disasters...

    Are there enough to stop A50 being implemented? We'll see...
    I don't see why May doesn't just make the vote on A50 a confidence vote on her negotiating approach.

    If it fails, General Election.
  • GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP
    UKIP are on their death bed . Their candidates for the 2 Welsh by elections today have had to be drafted in from Swindon and Skegness .
    The danger is that this could resurrect UKIP. In my opinion there is a lot of excitable discussion tonight but in the end a vote on A50 will be taken and passed. The HOL cannot stop the legislation but can delay it and generally mess around with it.

    However that would result in an unstoppable demand for the abolition of the HOL and TM could appoint sufficient conservatives peers to see this happen.

    When push comes to shove I do not think the HOL will obstruct the will of the people and the HOC and that A50 will be served though maybe somewhat delayed.
    That would be the sensible outcome but I'm really not sure. I think there are a LOT of REMAIN MP's and Lords who are not thinking rationally and will actually vote this down even if it was to mean possible abolition of HoL and other potential disasters...

    Are there enough to stop A50 being implemented? We'll see...
    I don't see why May doesn't just make the vote on A50 a confidence vote on her negotiating approach.

    If it fails, General Election.
    The FPTA doesn't work like that.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Anorak said:

    Acerbic comment of the week. Well done, sir.

    +1
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,682
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP
    That really is gibberish! You are assuming that people like myself who voted Leave last June would see Brexit as the most important issue in a General Election. To me - despite being a political anorak- the EU is a minor issue and will have zero influence on how I cast my vote. I strongly suspect that any election called in response to Brexit would end up being dominated by other issues. Ted Heath found that out in February 1974.
    72% voted in EUref, more than any other election since 1992, I am sorry but the EU and immigration ARE the main political issues at the moment, only the NHS gets an occasional look-in alongside them. You are a middle class Labour voter, not at all typical of the white working class Labour voters who were the bulk of the Labour Leave vote
    You are only speaking for yourself - and really cannot transfer your opinion to the electorate at large. Most people were utterly sick to death of Brexit by the time we arrived at June 23rd. The idea that they would look forward to a five-week General Election focussed on Brexit and ignoring almost everything else is pie in the sky. If TM tried to call an election on that basis she might well come to regret it. Her support - as it is - appears to be a mile wide and an inch thick.
    I can speak for the 17 million who voted Leave, for the record I voted Remain. The sheer complacency of some Labour supporters like you on this is breathtaking, in white working class Labour seats more voters voted in EU ref than have voted in a general election for decades, if Parliament and their MP then throws their vote back in their faces expect them to throw those MPs out of their seats in response!
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,404
    edited November 2016
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    It's a bit Daily Mail on here today isn't it.

    Brexiters hold your nerve and stop bleating like Corporal Jones.

    We're still leaving just that Parliament will endorse the process. May should have done this ages ago which would have avoided the general PB Leaver self-wetting today.

    I agree that this is the only right way to do it. But I do not share your confidence that as a result we will get Brexit. That doesn't mean we should condemn the decision of the courts but we should be clear on the consequences.
    I think the next challenge (not this procedural judgement) will be to avoid the trap you have just fallen into.

    "We will get Brexit."

    But what on earth is Brexit? I don't think May will be able to hold out too much longer on spelling it out.
    I think you need to accept that whilst you might be willing to accept the basic premise behind the referendum result, many are not. There will be those - and they may even be a majority in Parliament - who do not see this as a means to refine what Brexit means but a means to stop it completely. We have already seen plenty of comments along those lines from the political classes and more will be emboldened by this decision.

    That does not in any way mean the decision was wrong. But there will be a great deal of work being done to ensure this becomes a means to stop the UK leaving the EU at all rather than simply defining the nature of Brexit.

    And bear in mind I say that as someone who favours what is usually referred to as a soft Brexit and so would be happy with genuine Parliamentary agreement. I just don't think that is what this is about.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117

    Sky poll tonight - 48 - 45 in favour of TM serving A50

    Possibly we should start by excluding those who do not know what Article 50 is. And then we should exclude those who do not know what the EU is.

    The GOP has been every effective at surgically removing blacks from the electoral roll. My suggestion in the UK is to exclude;
    white working classes who haven't got a degree
    all those aged over 65
    people that show an unhealthy obsession with the EU
    farmers....although organic ones that do not rear meat would get an exemption.....
    All Millwall and Chelsea fans (without exception) and Stoke fans...but I guess many of those creatures do not get past the WWC without a degree bar...
    Anyone that has ever hunted
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP
    UKIP are on their death bed . Their candidates for the 2 Welsh by elections today have had to be drafted in from Swindon and Skegness .
    The danger is that this could resurrect UKIP. In my opinion there is a lot of excitable discussion tonight but in the end a vote on A50 will be taken and passed. The HOL cannot stop the legislation but can delay it and generally mess around with it.

    However that would result in an unstoppable demand for the abolition of the HOL and TM could appoint sufficient conservatives peers to see this happen.

    When push comes to shove I do not think the HOL will obstruct the will of the people and the HOC and that A50 will be served though maybe somewhat delayed.
    That would be the sensible outcome but I'm really not sure. I think there are a LOT of REMAIN MP's and Lords who are not thinking rationally and will actually vote this down even if it was to mean possible abolition of HoL and other potential disasters...

    Are there enough to stop A50 being implemented? We'll see...
    I don't see why May doesn't just make the vote on A50 a confidence vote on her negotiating approach.

    If it fails, General Election.
    The FPTA doesn't work like that.
    Was just about to say that - the confidence motion has very specific wording.

    The FTPA generally sucks.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Dear mother of God, the Express has gone full-on mental:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/794300244481757185

    We will be marching on parliament if this keeps up - lol
  • Scott_P said:

    Mibbes aye, mibbes naw, but there's no 'obvious' will about it.

    Isn't that Nicola's Indyref2 campaign slogan?
    I think 'Indyref2 has the support of Scott_P' is what we're starting with.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,076
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Mibbes aye, mibbes naw, but there's no 'obvious' will about it.

    Isn't that Nicola's Indyref2 campaign slogan?
    Oh, I forgot to mention, but this court case result is clearly Good For Yes. ;)
    I was thinking that, if there's no legal route to leaving the EU at the moment, at least it means the SNP will be happy to stay in the UK.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    The Telegraph and Express really are edited by a bunch of berks.

    No one has blocked Brexit.

    Brexit will still happen

    Honestly Leavers would have crumbled at Normandy, sack up you numpties.

    So, the court case is dreadful PR?
  • TOPPING said:

    Sky poll tonight - 48 - 45 in favour of TM serving A50

    Fantastic. And put to Parliament I'm sure there would be a larger majority than that. What is everyone getting so het up about? Parliament agreeing to serve A50 must be the least contentious issue in decades.

    Will Brexiters please take yes for an answer.
    I agree but there has been so much anti A50 from remainer's and vested interests that there is genuine concern that this is a back door attempt at frustrating the verdict of the people.

    Tomorrow's paper headlines are furious and it is not with Theresa May
  • Dear mother of God, the Express has gone full-on mental:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/794300244481757185

    We will be marching on parliament if this keeps up - lol
    What has 100 legs and no teeth?

    The front row of a Brexit march on Parliament.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP
    UKIP are on their death bed . Their candidates for the 2 Welsh by elections today have had to be drafted in from Swindon and Skegness .
    The danger is that this could resurrect UKIP. In my opinion there is a lot of excitable discussion tonight but in the end a vote on A50 will be taken and passed. The HOL cannot stop the legislation but can delay it and generally mess around with it.

    However that would result in an unstoppable demand for the abolition of the HOL and TM could appoint sufficient conservatives peers to see this happen.

    When push comes to shove I do not think the HOL will obstruct the will of the people and the HOC and that A50 will be served though maybe somewhat delayed.
    That would be the sensible outcome but I'm really not sure. I think there are a LOT of REMAIN MP's and Lords who are not thinking rationally and will actually vote this down even if it was to mean possible abolition of HoL and other potential disasters...

    Are there enough to stop A50 being implemented? We'll see...
    I don't see why May doesn't just make the vote on A50 a confidence vote on her negotiating approach.

    If it fails, General Election.
    A general election would leave May in a much stronger position.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922
    AnneJGP said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Mibbes aye, mibbes naw, but there's no 'obvious' will about it.

    Isn't that Nicola's Indyref2 campaign slogan?
    Oh, I forgot to mention, but this court case result is clearly Good For Yes. ;)
    I was thinking that, if there's no legal route to leaving the EU at the moment, at least it means the SNP will be happy to stay in the UK.
    There is a clear legal route to leaving the EU: Parliament authorises A50, and Bob's your uncle.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP
    UKIP are on their death bed . Their candidates for the 2 Welsh by elections today have had to be drafted in from Swindon and Skegness .
    Correction, UKIP were no longer making much progress after the UK voted Leave, however that was before the judiciary and Remainers in Parliament began the process of throwing back the votes of 17 million Leave voters in their face
    So we will see sweeping gains for UKIP tonight as all these disgruntled Leavers rush out in anger and vote UKIP ?
    If triggering Article 50 is delayed beyond May's intended March date of course you will see a boost for UKIP
    Translate to No then , the UKIP vote will be down again tonight and come next May:s CC elections they will lose 70% plus of the seats they won in 2013
  • chestnut said:

    The Telegraph and Express really are edited by a bunch of berks.

    No one has blocked Brexit.

    Brexit will still happen

    Honestly Leavers would have crumbled at Normandy, sack up you numpties.

    So, the court case is dreadful PR?
    No, it is reflective of appalling legal arguments by Government lawyers, and avoidable by Mrs May if she had already put some legislative action in practise.

    Brexit means Brexit needs to more than a slogan.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,682
    edited November 2016
    RobD said:

    Freggles said:

    Can someone reassure me about the American election?

    Yes.

    In 2012 more polls were showing Romney ahead than have Trump ahead.
    Interesting to look at this as a comparison:

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/fivethirtyeights-2012-forecast/
    Rasmussen has Trump + 3 now, in 2012 they had Romney +1, IBID TIPP has it tied, in 2012 they had Obama +1. ABC had Obama +3, they now have Clinton +2
  • The curse of Strictly strikes again*

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/794302031666233344

    *It was Ed Balls joking, but let us be honest, who wouldn't want to give Laura Whitmore a massage?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @hugorifkind: I suppose Brexiters must be wishing there was some sort of supranational court that could overrule ours about now, eh? OR IS THERE?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,842

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    It's a bit Daily Mail on here today isn't it.

    Brexiters hold your nerve and stop bleating like Corporal Jones.

    We're still leaving just that Parliament will endorse the process. May should have done this ages ago which would have avoided the general PB Leaver self-wetting today.

    I agree that this is the only right way to do it. But I do not share your confidence that as a result we will get Brexit. That doesn't mean we should condemn the decision of the courts but we should be clear on the consequences.
    I think the next challenge (not this procedural judgement) will be to avoid the trap you have just fallen into.

    "We will get Brexit."

    But what on earth is Brexit? I don't think May will be able to hold out too much longer on spelling it out.
    I think you need to accept that whilst you might be willing to accept the basic premise behind the referendum result, many are not. There will be those - and they may even be a majority in Parliament - who do not see this as a means to refine what Brexit means but a means to stop it completely. We have already seen plenty of comments along those lines from the political classes and more will be emboldened by this decision.

    That does not in any way mean the decision was wrong. But there will be a great deal of work being done to ensure this becomes a means to stop the UK leaving the EU at all rather than simply defining the nature of Brexit.

    And bear in mind I say that as someone who favours what is usually referred to as a soft Brexit and so would be happy with genuine Parliamentary agreement. I just don't think that is what this is about.
    Many MPs of all stripes felt uneasy verging on indignant that May was going to bypass Parliament.

    As we agree on here (apart from the bed-wetters), all this will do will be to bind MPs into the process and make them feel invested in the outcome, whatever the eventual flavour.

    I can't see anyone apart from Ken trying to overturn the decision and he's retiring.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922
    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    Freggles said:

    Can someone reassure me about the American election?

    Yes.

    In 2012 more polls were showing Romney ahead than have Trump ahead.
    Interesting to look at this as a comparison:

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/fivethirtyeights-2012-forecast/
    Rasmussen has Trump + 3 now, in 2012 they had Romney +1, IBID TIPP has it tied, in 2012 they had Obama +1. ABC had Obama +3, they now have Clinton +2
    More thinking the chance of winning plot vs time. Things were trending away from Romney all the way up to the vote.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,682

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP
    UKIP are on their death bed . Their candidates for the 2 Welsh by elections today have had to be drafted in from Swindon and Skegness .
    Correction, UKIP were no longer making much progress after the UK voted Leave, however that was before the judiciary and Remainers in Parliament began the process of throwing back the votes of 17 million Leave voters in their face
    So we will see sweeping gains for UKIP tonight as all these disgruntled Leavers rush out in anger and vote UKIP ?
    If triggering Article 50 is delayed beyond May's intended March date of course you will see a boost for UKIP
    Translate to No then , the UKIP vote will be down again tonight and come next May:s CC elections they will lose 70% plus of the seats they won in 2013
    If Article 50 has not been triggered by May's County Council elections expect UKIP to see an increase in their number of seats
This discussion has been closed.