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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Government loses Article 50 case. Theresa May is the big loser

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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    At some point, negligence must become criminal, surely:

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/11/03/sources-99-percent-chance-foreign-intel-agencies-breached-clinton-server.html

    So, the FBI think there is a 99% chance up to 5 foreign agencies hacked her server ...
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,289
    AnneJGP said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Same generation as Mr Corbyn or older. We have seen (indeed, lived through) his vision of the future and do not wish to return to it.
    Possibly not fans of McDonnell's shady friends who were all too active in London & Ulster in the 1970s.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    MTimT said:

    At some point, negligence must become criminal, surely:

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/11/03/sources-99-percent-chance-foreign-intel-agencies-breached-clinton-server.html

    So, the FBI think there is a 99% chance up to 5 foreign agencies hacked her server ...

    No, but they didn't mean to break the law so let's give them a free pass. :/
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    RobD said:

    Just read the news. Should the appeal fail, TM should go to the country.

    In a referendum or a general election? LOL
    If the latter, then that would be saying Parliament should decide.
    So why not introduce a bill now and stop effing about?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,966
    MaxPB said:

    taffys said:

    What's the significance of leads in New Hampshire? IF Trump took it, could he afford to miss out one of the 'must win' states?

    No, only 4ECVs.
    It means he is more likely to win those states he needs though !
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Dromedary said:

    RobD said:

    Just read the news. Should the appeal fail, TM should go to the country.

    In a referendum or a general election? LOL
    If the latter, then that would be saying Parliament should decide.
    So why not introduce a bill now and stop effing about?
    Merely as a fig leaf for getting a stonking majority and her own mandate. :p
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    One of the more interesting trends on the LA poll dashboard http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/ is the likelihood to vote - check it out.

    (Do note Trump in to 3.4)
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,116
    edited November 2016
    MTimT said:

    At some point, negligence must become criminal, surely:

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/11/03/sources-99-percent-chance-foreign-intel-agencies-breached-clinton-server.html

    So, the FBI think there is a 99% chance up to 5 foreign agencies hacked her server ...

    One of the most astonishing things that came out was that prior to setting up the clintonemail.com private server, Hillary's email was entirely on @att.blackberry.net. One of the most powerful people in the world and her IT was the equivalent of Joe the Plumber's...
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    nunu said:

    Trump leading in two New Hampshire polls today! Squeeky bum time for Clinton!

    https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/794200634975223808
    ARG !!!!!!!!!!!!

    Or Aaaarrrrgggghhhh as we know it by repute .... :smiley:
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    nunu said:

    Trump leading in two New Hampshire polls today! Squeeky bum time for Clinton!

    https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/794200634975223808
    I don't believe ARG is a well rated pollster.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892
    edited November 2016
    RobD said:

    Just read the news. Should the appeal fail, TM should go to the country.

    For what reason? It won't change the judgement. It's ironic that the Tories have expended so much time and energy criticising the EU judiciary when our own judges will also not rollover. The truth is that Theresa got it very badly wrong and it's far from the first time

    PS. Good article by Alastair in posted by TSE early in the thread

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,966
    edited November 2016
    Could it all come down to Wisconsin ?

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/p3AB2
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    MaxPB said:

    taffys said:

    What's the significance of leads in New Hampshire? IF Trump took it, could he afford to miss out one of the 'must win' states?

    No, only 4ECVs.
    NH is symbolic at the moment because it is the tipping state on 538s Nowcast.
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    The country voted Leave. We therefore start the process and negotiate the best possible deal financially. Not a problem, is it?

    It's been likened to a divorce. The pair split, the lawyers argue about the details and we come to a mutual agreement.

    It's not "You'll have to stay married because we can't agree about the CDs."
    .
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Some good data in here re early voters

    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/article/2606372/
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549

    Of course it was Leave, anybody's guess how many wanted Hard Brexit (10%?), EEA/EFTA (30%?), £350m to NHS (7%?), bash the Government (5%?).
    At least the 48% knew what they were voting for.


    Remain as is, or Remain with the proposed reforms, or ever closer union if a Labour and Lib Dem coalition forms the next government? There are many possible outcomes for Remain as well, but no sensible person should claim that those voting for Remain really wanted to Leave. If you go down that path you can claim any vote means anything, it's nonsense.

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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Following the return of ARG we just need "We Ask America" to pop up with some novel polling and it'll be like the old days of 2012 .... :sunglasses:
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,116
    JackW said:

    nunu said:

    Trump leading in two New Hampshire polls today! Squeeky bum time for Clinton!

    https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/794200634975223808
    ARG !!!!!!!!!!!!

    Or Aaaarrrrgggghhhh as we know it by repute .... :smiley:
    Are they as bad as Populus?
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Roger said:

    RobD said:

    Just read the news. Should the appeal fail, TM should go to the country.

    For what reason? It won't change the judgement. It's ironic that the Tories have expended so much time and energy criticising the EU judiciary when our own judges will also not rollover. The truth is that Theresa got it very badly wrong and it's far from the first time

    PS. Good article by Alastair in posted by TSE early in the thread

    As a convenient way of getting around her previous commitment to not hold one.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Pulpstar said:

    Could it all come down to Wisconsin ?

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/p3AB2

    No .... :smiley:
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,966
    If you're going to retire in the next decade, might be a good idea to get out of US stocks, like yesterday.
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    RobD said:

    Just read the news. Should the appeal fail, TM should go to the country.

    With the polls saying (roughly):
    Con 42%
    Lab 28%

    Will Labour be frit?
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    JackW said:

    nunu said:

    Trump leading in two New Hampshire polls today! Squeeky bum time for Clinton!

    https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/794200634975223808
    ARG !!!!!!!!!!!!

    Or Aaaarrrrgggghhhh as we know it by repute .... :smiley:
    Pirate Party, me hearties?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Pulpstar said:

    Could it all come down to Wisconsin ?

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/p3AB2

    Give Trump NV and Clinton MN and you have a tie. Then give Trump one of ME's districts and he's at 270
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    Dixie said:

    Some interesting subsample results......

    Con lead among:
    Men: +21
    65+: +45
    and voters wonder why pensioners get better deal from tory govt than youngsters!
    As a man over 65 Corbyn probably isn't voting for himself then.....
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    Scott_P said:
    I don't recall a YouGov poll from last week giving the Tories a 13% lead. Two weeks ago I believe it was 16%.
    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1iezp6n48z/TimesResults_161025_VI_W.pdf
    Thanks. There was also a YouGov poll carried out 19/20th Oct which came up with Con 42 Lab 26.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,966
    edited November 2016
    New Hampshire despite being tiny is pretty much a must win for Clinton I think.

    Maine CD-2 goes also if NH goes red.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341


    At least the 48% knew what they were voting for.

    That's a myth.


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    glwglw Posts: 9,549

    One of the most astonishing things that came out was that prior to setting up the clintonemail.com private server, Hillary's email was entirely on @att.blackberry.net. One of the most powerful people in the world and her IT was the equivalent of Joe the Plumber's...

    IIRC one of the FBI or DOJ docs made the point that Clinton's email would have been more secure if she had used almost any popular webmail service. So using BlackBerry's service was almost certainly safer than the in-house stuff.
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    Good afternoon, everyone.
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    Very sorry to see Pong leave the site last night after his spat with SeanT. His departure will inevitably weaken the collective betting know how of PB.com especially after the seemingly permanent departure of my near namesake and the now all too infrequent appearances by stjohn, the Brain of Brum.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    edited November 2016

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Good morning! We were talking about your trebuchet yesterday.. ;)
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    nunu said:

    Trump leading in two New Hampshire polls today! Squeeky bum time for Clinton!

    https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/794200634975223808
    ARG !!!!!!!!!!!!

    Or Aaaarrrrgggghhhh as we know it by repute .... :smiley:
    Are they as bad as Populus?
    They are to US polling what SeanT is to demur and modest self promotion ....
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    619619 Posts: 1,784
    Two more NH polls today
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,966
    edited November 2016

    Very sorry to see Pong leave the site last night after his spat with SeanT. His departure will inevitably weaken the collective betting know how of PB.com especially after the seemingly permanent departure of my near namesake and the now all too infrequent appearances by stjohn, the Brain of Brum.

    He's managed to build a circa £20,000 book iirc taking on no more than £1k liability at any point in this election cycle.

    Amazing.

    And a huge loss.
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    IanB2 said:

    $1.24 !

    Now Brexit is cancelled, we are so much better off.

    Cancelled? In what way?
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    glw said:

    Yes, but which Leave?
    And where is the £350/million for the NHS?

    Well at least you are acknowledging that it was a Leave, so you are better than 32% of Remainers who think black is white, up is down, left is right, on is off etc.
    Of course it was Leave, anybody's guess how many wanted Hard Brexit (10%?), EEA/EFTA (30%?), £350m to NHS (7%?), bash the Government (5%?).
    At least the 48% knew what they were voting for.
    What would that be?

    Ever closer economic and political union?

    A European army?

    Turkey's entry to the EU?
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    Mr. Putney, saddened to hear that. Hope Mr. Pong reconsiders.

    Mr. D, trebuchets*. There are multiple arrays, protecting Castle Morris Dancer, on the east coast, on the south coast.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    That's a myth.

    Why bother? the person you are talking too clearly thinks the other 52% should be disenfranchised, presumably because they are too stupid.

    THe argument of elites down the centuries.
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    So that's four negatives, which makes a positive?
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    justin124 said:

    The YouGov poll would point to a Tory majority of circa 74.

    Buy.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    IanB2 said:

    $1.24 !

    Now Brexit is cancelled, we are so much better off.

    Cancelled? In what way?
    Yes, after all this we are still going to leave, despite all the effort to the contrary. Although I do see why some might find it appealing to test the limits of the prerogative.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,966
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    TonyETonyE Posts: 938
    Dromedary said:

    Listen, May and your whips: either you've got the support of the Commons and Lords for invoking Article 50 or you haven't. Introduce a bill. Quit the lawyering.

    Why is a bill; necessary - a motion in the house should be sufficient?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    Mr. Putney, saddened to hear that. Hope Mr. Pong reconsiders.

    Mr. D, trebuchets*. There are multiple arrays, protecting Castle Morris Dancer, on the east coast, on the south coast.

    Now you are showing off... ;)
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    Pulpstar said:

    Very sorry to see Pong leave the site last night after his spat with SeanT. His departure will inevitably weaken the collective betting know how of PB.com especially after the seemingly permanent departure of my near namesake and the now all too infrequent appearances by stjohn, the Brain of Brum.

    He's managed to build a circa £20,000 book iirc taking on no more than £1k liability at any point in this election cycle.

    Amazing.

    And a huge loss.
    Perhaps you could send him a Vanilla message asking him to return - it might just help.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,763

    IanB2 said:

    $1.24 !

    Now Brexit is cancelled, we are so much better off.

    Cancelled? In what way?
    Exactly. If it was really cancelled it would be $1.60.
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    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Have you won your bet :) ?

    It would appear so...
    Remember the correct phrase is "you lost, get over it"
    If I was editing PB today, this thread would have been headlined

    'Suck it up moaners, this is a victory for Parliamentary sovereignty, up there with chopping off the head of King Charles'

    I don't know why you are happy. This may end up forcing a harder Brexit.

    Happy is my default position.
    And you claim to be a Yorkshireman?
    Can't be. I've never met a happy Yorkshireman.
    From which we can only conclude you make Yorkshireman miserable.
    Yes - they are so sad that they are not proper northerners!
    Is that proper northern logic ?
    PROPER Brexit for PROPER people!
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    "German academics urge Merkel to block Brexit"

    lolololololol
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,116

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Have you won your bet :) ?

    It would appear so...
    Remember the correct phrase is "you lost, get over it"
    If I was editing PB today, this thread would have been headlined

    'Suck it up moaners, this is a victory for Parliamentary sovereignty, up there with chopping off the head of King Charles'

    I don't know why you are happy. This may end up forcing a harder Brexit.

    Happy is my default position.
    And you claim to be a Yorkshireman?
    Can't be. I've never met a happy Yorkshireman.
    From which we can only conclude you make Yorkshireman miserable.
    Yes - they are so sad that they are not proper northerners!
    Is that proper northern logic ?
    PROPER Brexit for PROPER people!
    As opposed to local Brexit for local people?
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    edited November 2016
    TonyE said:

    Dromedary said:

    Listen, May and your whips: either you've got the support of the Commons and Lords for invoking Article 50 or you haven't. Introduce a bill. Quit the lawyering.

    Why is a bill; necessary - a motion in the house should be sufficient?
    Because as argued in the court case, primary legislation is needed to strip British citizens of rights.
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    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Have you won your bet :) ?

    It would appear so...
    Remember the correct phrase is "you lost, get over it"
    If I was editing PB today, this thread would have been headlined

    'Suck it up moaners, this is a victory for Parliamentary sovereignty, up there with chopping off the head of King Charles'

    I don't know why you are happy. This may end up forcing a harder Brexit.

    Happy is my default position.
    And you claim to be a Yorkshireman?
    Can't be. I've never met a happy Yorkshireman.
    From which we can only conclude you make Yorkshireman miserable.
    Yes - they are so sad that they are not proper northerners!
    Is that proper northern logic ?
    PROPER Brexit for PROPER people!
    As opposed to local Brexit for local people?
    Soft Brexit is for SOFTIES! :lol:
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Florida - Opinion Savvy - Sample To Follow - 1-2 Nov

    Clinton 49 .. Trump 45

    http://opinionsavvy.com/2016/11/03/poll-clinton-maintains-four-point-lead-in-florida-rubio-pulls-ahead/
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,116
    JackW said:

    Florida - Opinion Savvy - Sample To Follow - 1-2 Nov

    Clinton 49 .. Trump 45

    http://opinionsavvy.com/2016/11/03/poll-clinton-maintains-four-point-lead-in-florida-rubio-pulls-ahead/

    The only thing we can say with certainty is that the polling is wrong. We just don't know how much of it is wrong.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    So that's four negatives, which makes a positive?
    But he was being ironic!
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    With the polls saying (roughly):
    Con 42%
    Lab 28%

    Will Labour be frit?
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    619619 Posts: 1,784
    edited November 2016
    RobD said:

    So that's four negatives, which makes a positive?
    But he was being ironic!
    No early voting in PA. Makes sense to close the deal there.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,966
    edited November 2016

    justin124 said:

    The YouGov poll would point to a Tory majority of circa 74.

    Buy.
    In 2020 will Corbyn beat Major's 165 in 1997 ?
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    FF43 said:

    IanB2 said:

    $1.24 !

    Now Brexit is cancelled, we are so much better off.

    Cancelled? In what way?
    Exactly. If it was really cancelled it would be $1.60.
    Naught but REMAIN propaganda!
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,116
    619 said:

    RobD said:

    So that's four negatives, which makes a positive?
    But he was being ironic!
    No early voting in PA. Makes sense to close the deal there.
    In contrast Obama's final rally in 2012 was in Iowa, which Clinton has given up on.
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    Mr. D, the siege weaponry of Morris Dancer is unsurpassed.

    Incidentally, some hours ago but I saw the lawyer who won the case on the news. Smug bugger.
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    glw said:

    Yes, but which Leave?
    And where is the £350/million for the NHS?

    Well at least you are acknowledging that it was a Leave, so you are better than 32% of Remainers who think black is white, up is down, left is right, on is off etc.
    Of course it was Leave, anybody's guess how many wanted Hard Brexit (10%?), EEA/EFTA (30%?), £350m to NHS (7%?), bash the Government (5%?).
    At least the 48% knew what they were voting for.
    What would that be?

    Ever closer economic and political union?

    A European army?

    Turkey's entry to the EU?
    No, status quo.
    The things you mentioned were more Leave lies. Of course if we are out we can't influence what the EU might now do.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Pulpstar said:

    justin124 said:

    The YouGov poll would point to a Tory majority of circa 74.

    Buy.
    In 2020 will Corbyn beat Major's 165 in 1997 ?
    Today's YouGov would give Labour circa 200 seats.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    Mr. D, the siege weaponry of Morris Dancer is unsurpassed.

    Incidentally, some hours ago but I saw the lawyer who won the case on the news. Smug bugger.

    just remember, they haven't actually achieved anything - we're still leaving.
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    justin124 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    justin124 said:

    The YouGov poll would point to a Tory majority of circa 74.

    Buy.
    In 2020 will Corbyn beat Major's 165 in 1997 ?
    Today's YouGov would give Labour circa 200 seats.
    Sell.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Pulpstar said:
    He basically has no path without PA, best to have it locked up.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,768
    Pulpstar said:
    Not really; PA is one of the must take states for Trump. Lack of hubris, perhaps.
    Clinton has ventured away from her base a lot:
    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/11/trump-clinton-electoral-college/506306/
    A return makes considerable sense.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    edited November 2016

    glw said:

    Yes, but which Leave?
    And where is the £350/million for the NHS?

    Well at least you are acknowledging that it was a Leave, so you are better than 32% of Remainers who think black is white, up is down, left is right, on is off etc.
    Of course it was Leave, anybody's guess how many wanted Hard Brexit (10%?), EEA/EFTA (30%?), £350m to NHS (7%?), bash the Government (5%?).
    At least the 48% knew what they were voting for.
    What would that be?

    Ever closer economic and political union?

    A European army?

    Turkey's entry to the EU?
    No, status quo.
    The things you mentioned were more Leave lies. Of course if we are out we can't influence what the EU might now do.
    Isn't the EU army going forward now? It would have been a QMV decision before long...
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    Pulpstar said:

    justin124 said:

    The YouGov poll would point to a Tory majority of circa 74.

    Buy.
    In 2020 will Corbyn beat Major's 165 in 1997 ?
    I would sell at 2020, too.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    nunu said:

    Pulpstar said:
    He basically has no path without PA, best to have it locked up.
    The map posted earlier suggests otherwise.
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    nunu said:

    Pulpstar said:
    He basically has no path without PA, best to have it locked up.
    Also, no early voting there so not possible to bank votes.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,116
    RobD said:

    Mr. D, the siege weaponry of Morris Dancer is unsurpassed.

    Incidentally, some hours ago but I saw the lawyer who won the case on the news. Smug bugger.

    just remember, they haven't actually achieved anything - we're still leaving.
    I suspect David Davis's department has been deliberately staffed with sloths, like in Zootopia.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    glw said:

    Yes, but which Leave?
    And where is the £350/million for the NHS?

    Well at least you are acknowledging that it was a Leave, so you are better than 32% of Remainers who think black is white, up is down, left is right, on is off etc.
    Of course it was Leave, anybody's guess how many wanted Hard Brexit (10%?), EEA/EFTA (30%?), £350m to NHS (7%?), bash the Government (5%?).
    At least the 48% knew what they were voting for.
    What would that be?

    Ever closer economic and political union?

    A European army?

    Turkey's entry to the EU?
    No, status quo.
    The things you mentioned were more Leave lies. Of course if we are out we can't influence what the EU might now do.
    Status quo was never an option. The EU wasn't standing still for the UK and still won't.

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    glw said:

    Yes, but which Leave?
    And where is the £350/million for the NHS?

    Well at least you are acknowledging that it was a Leave, so you are better than 32% of Remainers who think black is white, up is down, left is right, on is off etc.
    Of course it was Leave, anybody's guess how many wanted Hard Brexit (10%?), EEA/EFTA (30%?), £350m to NHS (7%?), bash the Government (5%?).
    At least the 48% knew what they were voting for.
    What would that be?

    Ever closer economic and political union?

    A European army?

    Turkey's entry to the EU?
    No, status quo.
    The things you mentioned were more Leave lies. Of course if we are out we can't influence what the EU might now do.
    Why do you want us to be shackled to the EU corpse?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    RobD said:

    just remember, they haven't actually achieved anything

    They have established the rule of law and the Sovereignty of the UK parliament.

    You won. Get over it !
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    National Tracker - Latino Voters - Sample 1,750 - 250 new 23-29 Oct

    Clinton 74 .. Trump 14

    http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/7614/7794/1262/Wk7FullTracker.pdf
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,917
    MP_SE said:

    OllyT said:

    SeanT said:

    This is the 2nd big threat to Brexit, certainly Hard Brexit.

    If public opinion shifts emphatically, let's say to 60/40 Remain by next Spring, would any PM trigger A50?

    It would certainly take a very brave politician to go for HARD Brexit with polling like that.
    I think most Brexiters know in their heart-of-hearts that the longer it goes on the more likely their initial 3.8% lead will fade away. June 23rd was the high-water mark. I suspect. Hence the hysteria from certain quarters when anything that looks like a delay occurs. Like many Remainers I am reconciled to the fact we will Leave but hell will freeze over before I accept a hard-Brexit without a fight.
    Quite the contrary. As a Brexiteer since we entered 40 odd years ago I am convinced a second referendum will produce a much higher vote or leave. You'll have to accept a hard Brexit if the EU says that is will be what's on offer, and they seem minded to do so. I had to accept deeper integration for 40odd years so that's the way the cookie crumbles. You can do as I did, campaign for another referendum in 40 years to take us back in.
    A second referendum would lead to Leave having a greater majority. The full weight of the government would be on Leave's side unlike last time.

    The Remoaners are grasping at straws and trying to use anything and everything to prevent Brexit.
    Once in dawns on the 58% of Leavers who think they will be better off after Brexit that they can file that in the waste paper basket along with the extra £350m a week for the NHS, the political landscape is likely to change.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited November 2016

    I suspect David Davis's department has been deliberately staffed with sloths, like in Zootopia.

    I saw someone opine on Twitter that the Brexit department was the sexiest in Whitehall, and all the brightest and best were flocking there.

    In reality it is a means of promotion for all the dullards too inept to get promoted in their current posts...
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    Florida - Opinion Savvy - Sample To Follow - 1-2 Nov

    Clinton 49 .. Trump 45

    http://opinionsavvy.com/2016/11/03/poll-clinton-maintains-four-point-lead-in-florida-rubio-pulls-ahead/

    The only thing we can say with certainty is that the polling is wrong. We just don't know how much of it is wrong.
    ARG - Aaarrgghh ... you might think so, I couldn't ......
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    edited November 2016
    Scott_P said:

    RobD said:

    just remember, they haven't actually achieved anything

    They have established the rule of law and the Sovereignty of the UK parliament.

    You won. Get over it !
    Yep, but we are still leaving :p
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    Mr. D, said it before, but I'll believe we're leaving when we've left.
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    REMAINERs get up early to further their cause. We need to get up even earlier to defend our Freedom.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    Mr. D, said it before, but I'll believe we're leaving when we've left.

    Pedant mode.. at that precise moment we will no longer be leaving :)
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    Scott_P said:

    RobD said:

    just remember, they haven't actually achieved anything

    They have established the rule of law and the Sovereignty of the UK parliament.....

    Which will be diminished if we REMAIN and the EU becomes a superstate!!
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    TonyETonyE Posts: 938



    TonyE said:

    Dromedary said:

    Listen, May and your whips: either you've got the support of the Commons and Lords for invoking Article 50 or you haven't. Introduce a bill. Quit the lawyering.

    Why is a bill; necessary - a motion in the house should be sufficient?
    Because as argued in the court case, primary legislation is needed to strip British citizens of rights.
    Ok , I see it now I've read the whole judgement. I think a general election is becoming likely.
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    TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662
    chestnut said:

    glw said:

    Yes, but which Leave?
    And where is the £350/million for the NHS?

    Well at least you are acknowledging that it was a Leave, so you are better than 32% of Remainers who think black is white, up is down, left is right, on is off etc.
    Of course it was Leave, anybody's guess how many wanted Hard Brexit (10%?), EEA/EFTA (30%?), £350m to NHS (7%?), bash the Government (5%?).
    At least the 48% knew what they were voting for.
    What would that be?

    Ever closer economic and political union?

    A European army?

    Turkey's entry to the EU?
    No, status quo.
    The things you mentioned were more Leave lies. Of course if we are out we can't influence what the EU might now do.
    Status quo was never an option. The EU wasn't standing still for the UK and still won't.

    Cameron negotiated a deal that specifically excluded the status quo...
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCNormanS: An Act of Parliament is the "logical conclusion" of today's High Court ruling say No 10

    Which will be amendable...
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,966
    The politicalbetting.com "Foodbank" map:

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/BOvYE
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    I wonder what form the government bill will take? You could probably do it in one line, but the risk is it will be amended to buggery.
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    TudorRose said:

    chestnut said:

    glw said:

    Yes, but which Leave?
    And where is the £350/million for the NHS?

    Well at least you are acknowledging that it was a Leave, so you are better than 32% of Remainers who think black is white, up is down, left is right, on is off etc.
    Of course it was Leave, anybody's guess how many wanted Hard Brexit (10%?), EEA/EFTA (30%?), £350m to NHS (7%?), bash the Government (5%?).
    At least the 48% knew what they were voting for.
    What would that be?

    Ever closer economic and political union?

    A European army?

    Turkey's entry to the EU?
    No, status quo.
    The things you mentioned were more Leave lies. Of course if we are out we can't influence what the EU might now do.
    Status quo was never an option. The EU wasn't standing still for the UK and still won't.

    Cameron negotiated a deal that specifically excluded the status quo...
    "This deal is getting worse all the time!" - L. Calrissian.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNormanS: An Act of Parliament is the "logical conclusion" of today's High Court ruling say No 10

    Which will be amendable...

    I suspect that is the part the government doesn't want!
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,116
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNormanS: An Act of Parliament is the "logical conclusion" of today's High Court ruling say No 10

    Which will be amendable...

    I suspect that is the part the government doesn't want!
    Given that the government refuses to give a running commentary the entire debate could be conducted in silence as a series of amendments go back and forth.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    edited November 2016

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNormanS: An Act of Parliament is the "logical conclusion" of today's High Court ruling say No 10

    Which will be amendable...

    I suspect that is the part the government doesn't want!
    Given that the government refuses to give a running commentary the entire debate could be conducted in silence as a series of amendments go back and forth.
    Parliament certainly hasn't refused to give a commentary. That's the problem.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Given that the government refuses to give a running commentary

    ... to anyone. Except Japanese car makers, obviously.
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    Scott_P said:

    I suspect David Davis's department has been deliberately staffed with sloths, like in Zootopia.

    I saw someone opine on Twitter that the Brexit department was the sexiest in Whitehall, and all the brightest and best were flocking there.

    In reality it is a means of promotion for all the dullards too inept to get promoted in their current posts...
    The sexiest department in Whitehall is, was and always will be the Treasury.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,195
    Pulpstar said:

    The politicalbetting.com "Foodbank" map:

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/BOvYE

    :D
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    File under "Well, they would say that"...

    @iainjwatson: And downing st insist today's a50 ruling will have no influence on the election date and timetable for triggering it won't be be derailed
This discussion has been closed.