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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB Polling Matters TV Show & Podcast: Brexit, Zac’s by-ele

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    SeanT said:



    Also, I'd take the musical output of Morrisey over the non-existent "legacy" of Obama, the football of Lineker, and all the vice chancellors in history.

    Girlfriend in a Coma. Sublime.

    BREXIT

    Feel it.

    BREXIT. It Is Magnificent.

    Morrissey hasn't written a half decent song since the early 80s (Girlfriend in a coma? no ta)

    being a preening tit can be charming in yr 20s. in yr 50s? not so much
    Vauxhall and I from the 90s was as good as anything he did with the Smiths.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h55Xq0trc94
    I exaggerated, maybe.

    there's no Marr here tho
    Brexit's a setback for humanity, but Girlfriend In a Coma is a fine song. Personally, I don't think he was ever as interesting to listen to after he dispensed with Vini Reilly as his guitarist in the late '80s. The '90s stuff is a bit meat and potatoes to my ears.
  • Options
    dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596

    SeanT said:



    Also, I'd take the musical output of Morrisey over the non-existent "legacy" of Obama, the football of Lineker, and all the vice chancellors in history.

    Girlfriend in a Coma. Sublime.

    BREXIT

    Feel it.

    BREXIT. It Is Magnificent.

    Morrissey hasn't written a half decent song since the early 80s (Girlfriend in a coma? no ta)

    being a preening tit can be charming in yr 20s. in yr 50s? not so much
    Vauxhall and I from the 90s was as good as anything he did with the Smiths.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h55Xq0trc94
    I exaggerated, maybe.

    there's no Marr here tho
    Brexit's a setback for humanity, but Girlfriend In a Coma is a fine song. Personally, I don't think he was ever as interesting to listen to after he dispensed with Vini Reilly as his guitarist in the late '80s. The '90s stuff is a bit meat and potatoes to my ears.
    indeed. I'd lost interest by Strangeways here we come, as it goes. he was already into self parody by the queen is dead

    Which albums was Vini Reilly on? I've liked some of his things in the past
  • Options

    SeanT said:



    Also, I'd take the musical output of Morrisey over the non-existent "legacy" of Obama, the football of Lineker, and all the vice chancellors in history.

    Girlfriend in a Coma. Sublime.

    BREXIT

    Feel it.

    BREXIT. It Is Magnificent.

    Morrissey hasn't written a half decent song since the early 80s (Girlfriend in a coma? no ta)

    being a preening tit can be charming in yr 20s. in yr 50s? not so much
    Vauxhall and I from the 90s was as good as anything he did with the Smiths.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h55Xq0trc94
    I exaggerated, maybe.

    there's no Marr here tho
    Brexit's a setback for humanity, but Girlfriend In a Coma is a fine song. Personally, I don't think he was ever as interesting to listen to after he dispensed with Vini Reilly as his guitarist in the late '80s. The '90s stuff is a bit meat and potatoes to my ears.
    indeed. I'd lost interest by Strangeways here we come, as it goes. he was already into self parody by the queen is dead

    Which albums was Vini Reilly on? I've liked some of his things in the past
    He's on Viva Hate and Bona Drag, neither of which I'd rate as highly as The Queen Is Dead but both have some great tunes on them. Interesting Drug, Last of the Famous International Playboys etc.
  • Options
    dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596

    SeanT said:



    Also, I'd take the musical output of Morrisey over the non-existent "legacy" of Obama, the football of Lineker, and all the vice chancellors in history.

    Girlfriend in a Coma. Sublime.

    BREXIT

    Feel it.

    BREXIT. It Is Magnificent.

    Morrissey hasn't written a half decent song since the early 80s (Girlfriend in a coma? no ta)

    being a preening tit can be charming in yr 20s. in yr 50s? not so much
    Vauxhall and I from the 90s was as good as anything he did with the Smiths.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h55Xq0trc94
    I exaggerated, maybe.

    there's no Marr here tho
    Brexit's a setback for humanity, but Girlfriend In a Coma is a fine song. Personally, I don't think he was ever as interesting to listen to after he dispensed with Vini Reilly as his guitarist in the late '80s. The '90s stuff is a bit meat and potatoes to my ears.
    indeed. I'd lost interest by Strangeways here we come, as it goes. he was already into self parody by the queen is dead

    Which albums was Vini Reilly on? I've liked some of his things in the past
    He's on Viva Hate and Bona Drag, neither of which I'd rate as highly as The Queen Is Dead but both have some great tunes on them. Interesting Drug, Last of the Famous International Playboys etc.
    Cheers. I think I had Viva hate (was that the first one post Smiths?) Never realised it was Vini
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,983
    Been a while since the last thread. I wonder if Peter is waiting silently in the wings........
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Pulse Opinion Research/ESA State Polling - Samples 525-875 - 18-25 Oct

    NV - Clinton 45 .. Trump 41
    NH - Clinton 45 .. Trump 41
    FL - Clinton 45 .. Trump 41
    PA - Clinton 48 .. Trump 40
    NC - Clinton 46 - Trump 43
    OH - Clinton 41 - Trump 44

    Via 538
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,983
    JackW said:

    Pulse Opinion Research/ESA State Polling - Samples 525-875 - 18-25 Oct

    NV - Clinton 45 .. Trump 41
    NH - Clinton 45 .. Trump 41
    FL - Clinton 45 .. Trump 41
    PA - Clinton 48 .. Trump 40
    NC - Clinton 46 - Trump 43
    OH - Clinton 41 - Trump 44

    Via 538

    Not good for Trump.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,914
    tyson said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:



    What, other than the UK and the US in the hundred odd years before the first world war?

    Fair point. But that was before Wizzair and Easyjet. And t'internet.
    The proportions of people leaving, say, Ireland for the Uk and the US were massively higher than have departed, say, Lithuania.

    As it happens, I think the big problem is the combination of (relatively) open borders and an inefficient, work discouraging, welfare state. Dubai allows pretty much anyone to come work, but there is no safety net and defaulting on your debts is a crime. No one comes with any purpose other than to work.

    Mate....that is pretty much what happens in the UK too. The EU migrants come to work. I don't understand what world you populate, or what data you use...but they were coming here to work. If you think people were coming here for the benefits I would suggest reading something else other than the Mail and educating yourself a bit.

    But I bet if Dubai had a plebescite like we did, most of the ill educated would have voted to close down the borders much like we did. Because ignorance is ignorance. And people don't like foreigners.
    Nah, most of the 'locals' in Dubai have either a cushy public sector job paid for out of the taxes charged on the 90% immigrant population, or work as a required local sponsor for foreign companies. If they voted to end immigration they'd all have to get proper jobs.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,777
    edited October 2016
    Mrs Clinton isn't the only one destroying emails....wee Mrs McTurnip, who criticises the UK government for 'a cloud of secrecy' over Brexit has been caught destroying emails relating to her High Level routine meeting with the German Foreign Minister junior minister in the German Foreign Ministry Michelin starred restaurant which has subsequently closed.....

    http://stv.tv/news/politics/1370862-calls-for-transparency-over-sturgeon-s-eu-meetings/
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    National - AP/GFK - Sample 1,212 - 20-24 Oct

    Clinton 51 .. Trump 37

    http://ap-gfkpoll.com/main/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/October-2016-AP-GfK-Poll-Topline_Campaign.pdf

    National - Fox New - Sample 1.221 - 22-25 Oct

    Clinton 49 .. Trump 44

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/10/26/fox-news-poll-october-26-2016/
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,777
    Sandpit said:

    tyson said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:



    What, other than the UK and the US in the hundred odd years before the first world war?

    Fair point. But that was before Wizzair and Easyjet. And t'internet.
    The proportions of people leaving, say, Ireland for the Uk and the US were massively higher than have departed, say, Lithuania.

    As it happens, I think the big problem is the combination of (relatively) open borders and an inefficient, work discouraging, welfare state. Dubai allows pretty much anyone to come work, but there is no safety net and defaulting on your debts is a crime. No one comes with any purpose other than to work.

    Mate....that is pretty much what happens in the UK too. The EU migrants come to work. I don't understand what world you populate, or what data you use...but they were coming here to work. If you think people were coming here for the benefits I would suggest reading something else other than the Mail and educating yourself a bit.

    But I bet if Dubai had a plebescite like we did, most of the ill educated would have voted to close down the borders much like we did. Because ignorance is ignorance. And people don't like foreigners.
    If they voted to end immigration they'd all have to get proper jobs.
    And actually - you know, do work?

    Nah....never going to happen.....
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    Pulse Opinion Research/ESA State Polling - Samples 525-875 - 18-25 Oct

    NV - Clinton 45 .. Trump 41
    NH - Clinton 45 .. Trump 41
    FL - Clinton 45 .. Trump 44
    PA - Clinton 48 .. Trump 40
    NC - Clinton 46 - Trump 43
    OH - Clinton 41 - Trump 44

    Edit FL Trump 44 not 41.

    Via 538

    Not good for Trump.
    Very Mixed .
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,983
    edited October 2016

    Mrs Clinton isn't the only one destroying emails....wee Mrs McTurnip, who criticises the UK government for 'a cloud of secrecy' over Brexit has been caught destroying emails relating to her High Level routine meeting with the German Foreign Minister junior minister in the German Foreign Ministry Michelin starred restaurant which has subsequently closed.....

    http://stv.tv/news/politics/1370862-calls-for-transparency-over-sturgeon-s-eu-meetings/

    They 'delete routine or administrative emails' because they have a high email volume? What a pitiful excuse. All government emails/records should be saved. Not necessarily made public, but saved nonetheless.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    New Hampshire & Nevada - Marist - Samples 768 & 707 - 20-24 Oct

    NH - Clinton 47 .. Trump 39
    NV - Clinton 45 .. Trump 45

    http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/polls-clinton-holds-9-point-lead-new-hampshire-tied-nevada-n673361
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,983
    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    Pulse Opinion Research/ESA State Polling - Samples 525-875 - 18-25 Oct

    NV - Clinton 45 .. Trump 41
    NH - Clinton 45 .. Trump 41
    FL - Clinton 45 .. Trump 44
    PA - Clinton 48 .. Trump 40
    NC - Clinton 46 - Trump 43
    OH - Clinton 41 - Trump 44

    Edit FL Trump 44 not 41.

    Via 538

    Not good for Trump.
    Very Mixed .
    He's only up in OH.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,914
    edited October 2016
    RobD said:

    Mrs Clinton isn't the only one destroying emails....wee Mrs McTurnip, who criticises the UK government for 'a cloud of secrecy' over Brexit has been caught destroying emails relating to her High Level routine meeting with the German Foreign Minister junior minister in the German Foreign Ministry Michelin starred restaurant which has subsequently closed.....

    http://stv.tv/news/politics/1370862-calls-for-transparency-over-sturgeon-s-eu-meetings/

    They 'delete routine or administrative emails' because they have a high email volume? What a pitiful excuse. All government emails/records should be saved. Not necessarily made public, but saved nonetheless.
    Because storage is so expensive these days, and since no large organisation has ever had to deal with so much email before there exists no enterprise solution to the problems of archiving and indexing large volumes of email - especially not from those working in regulated industries, where discovery requests may be made several years into the future. Definitely not.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,777
    RobD said:

    Mrs Clinton isn't the only one destroying emails....wee Mrs McTurnip, who criticises the UK government for 'a cloud of secrecy' over Brexit has been caught destroying emails relating to her High Level routine meeting with the German Foreign Minister junior minister in the German Foreign Ministry Michelin starred restaurant which has subsequently closed.....

    http://stv.tv/news/politics/1370862-calls-for-transparency-over-sturgeon-s-eu-meetings/

    They 'delete routine or administrative emails' because they have a high email volume? What a pitiful excuse. All government emails/records should be saved. Not necessarily made public, but saved nonetheless.
    I'm sure there's a copy backed up on their server....I'm sure if they asked nicely they could get hold of one......but perhaps this is back to the mythical Legal Advice on EU membership the SNP spent tens of thousands on legal fees to keep voters from finding out it didn't exist.....
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:

    Jobabob said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.

    She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html
    I know fellow Leavers who literally want every Polish person to be told to leave, obviously for such extremes anything will be a compromise that will disappoint, I guess it'll be down to how much will she be able to say she can reduce immigration - she won't want to pin it down precisely, we know what difficulty that can lead to, but most people want immigration down quite a bit, they need to be confident anything proposed will manage that.
    A small minoritt, if they refuse she will just say she could not offer any more and go to WTO terms for the time being
    How is EU talent going to be encouraged to come to London if they need a firm job offer first? I prefer the existing system to May's pointless rigmarole
    New York City seems to manage with a similar system. Likewise Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Sydney....
    None of those cities are true world cities. London is the ONLY world city now. New York pales in comparison. And as for the rest? Pfft.
    If it has no rival, surely that means even the imposition of pointless rigmarole would not have a detrimental effect so large it would be significant? I confess, I assumed your response would be to say it would not remain a World city if this system is brought in due to its rivals overtaking it.
    I'm a big fan of London, and it is at the moment clearly superior to New York City, but it is a question of degree, not dimension. NYC has lots going for it, and could easily supplant London again, as the paramount city.... though I reckon Asia will provide the next great world city, not Europe, not America.

    Hong Kong, Shanghai, Singapore? Probably Shanghai.
    The difference, though, is that Shanghai and Hong Kong are increasingly serving their hinterlands - New York City in many ways in just the aggregator of domestic US demand.

    London is just about the only true global city - with a smallish domestic market we are forced to look outside our own boundaries
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    Pulse Opinion Research/ESA State Polling - Samples 525-875 - 18-25 Oct

    NV - Clinton 45 .. Trump 41
    NH - Clinton 45 .. Trump 41
    FL - Clinton 45 .. Trump 44
    PA - Clinton 48 .. Trump 40
    NC - Clinton 46 - Trump 43
    OH - Clinton 41 - Trump 44

    Edit FL Trump 44 not 41.

    Via 538

    Not good for Trump.
    Very Mixed .
    He's only up in OH.
    Indeed. Within striking range apart from PA. Remember FOP .... :smile:
  • Options
    It's 11.00 pm here in Vancouver. I have been drinking whisky sours. I want to come home.
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    GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    RobD said:

    Been a while since the last thread. I wonder if Peter is waiting silently in the wings........

    I can imagine him sitting there patiently tapping the F5 key with the word "First!" already copied to his clipboard waiting to hit Ctl+V & Enter, within the blink of an eye :-)
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,914

    It's 11.00 pm here in Vancouver. I have been drinking whisky sours. I want to come home.

    Whisky sours are a small price to pay for your contribution to international trade!
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Jobabob said:



    Many of the nativists who are driving all this want the latter, or no immigration at all.

    Witness the deranged post from Black Rook above - a man who says we must "prove" jobs cannot be filled by domestic workers before we offer them to foreigners.

    It is this we are dealing with.

    FWIW, before my wife could take up a job with an offshoot of the civil service she had to *prove* (and the organisation had to certify) that there was no candidate anywhere in the EU who was more suitable than her for the role. They had to include the adverts, all the CVs they got in response, who they interviewed and why they rejected the,

    This was in the mid 2000s. Do you think the UK government was "deranged" for imposing such a system?
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    tyson said:

    SeanT said:

    tyson said:

    rcs1000 said:

    tyson said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:



    What, other than the UK and the US in the hundred odd years before the first world war?

    Fair point. But that was before Wizzair and Easyjet. And t'internet.
    The proportions of people leaving, say, Ireland for the Uk and the US were massively higher than have departed, say, Lithuania.

    As it happens, I think the big problem is the combination of (relatively) open borders and an inefficient, work discouraging, welfare state. Dubai allows pretty much anyone to come work, but there is no safety net and defaulting on your debts is a crime. No one comes with any purpose other than to work.

    Mate....that is pretty much what happens in the UK too. The EU migrants come to work. I don't understand what world you populate, or what data you use...but they were coming here to work. If you think people were coming here for the benefits I would suggest reading something else other than the Mail and educating yourself a bit.

    But I bet if Dubai had a plebescite like we did, most of the ill educated would have voted to close down the borders much like we did. Because ignorance is ignorance. And people don't like foreigners.

    90%, sure. But the 10% who come to abuse the system spoil it for all.

    Why shouldn't countries be able to discriminate in favour of their own citizens
    Those 10% of benefit claimants (if that) didn't spoil it. Running a plebiscite with an ill informed population is "wot spoilt it".

    I doubt very much Dubai is going to run a plebiscite on whether it restricts foreigners any time soon...well they might maybe, only if educated people can vote. I doubt any other country is going to run said plebiscite either.

    Only Cameron was foolish enough to take a chance with such a thing and leave the fortunes of the country to the ill informed masses.

    The problem is people are ignorant and hateful. And you play to those emotions and there's a very big prize to win. Brexit..
    And there we are. The Remainer mindset. The people are too stupid, ignorant and hateful, we shall simply abjure their opinion.
    Look who you are siding with. You can take Katie Hopkins and Plato. I'll take the Pope and Obama. You can take Farage and the racists, I'll take the Vice Chancellors of the British Universities and the scientists and medics. I'll take Gary Lineker, you can take Morrissey.
    I'll take seanT and winston churchill to your jeremy corbyn and russell brand ;-)
    Corbyn campaigned for Leave.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,983
    Gadfly said:

    RobD said:

    Been a while since the last thread. I wonder if Peter is waiting silently in the wings........

    I can imagine him sitting there patiently tapping the F5 key with the word "First!" already copied to his clipboard waiting to hit Ctl+V & Enter, within the blink of an eye :-)
    He is indeed an unscrupulous bastard ;)
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,048
    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    Mrs Clinton isn't the only one destroying emails....wee Mrs McTurnip, who criticises the UK government for 'a cloud of secrecy' over Brexit has been caught destroying emails relating to her High Level routine meeting with the German Foreign Minister junior minister in the German Foreign Ministry Michelin starred restaurant which has subsequently closed.....

    http://stv.tv/news/politics/1370862-calls-for-transparency-over-sturgeon-s-eu-meetings/

    They 'delete routine or administrative emails' because they have a high email volume? What a pitiful excuse. All government emails/records should be saved. Not necessarily made public, but saved nonetheless.
    Because storage is so expensive these days, and since no large organisation has ever had to deal with so much email before there exists no enterprise solution to the problems of archiving and indexing large volumes of email - especially not from those working in regulated industries, where discovery requests may be made several years into the future. Definitely not.
    Actually, big data is expensive to store; at least in a way that is easy to collate and access when you need it. I believe that CGI film companies have problems with this, and they certainly do down the road from me at Babraham.

    I'm not sure the data sizes involved with governmental emails and attachments, but the problems might more be related to retrieval.

    That's not an excuse not to do it, though.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,914
    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Troubleshooting a home VPN server is a complete pain, because I need to be in two places at once... And I can't even use my phone as a hotspot as EE (at least the version that comes with my work phone) blocks VPN access.

    Is the main site down?
    Oops. I installed the VPN client on the main pb server, connected it (succesfully!) to home, but didn't realise I was accidentally pulling the site down...
    Playing with VPN connections is a pain in the proverbial. One missed setting or tick box and it's completely screwed, you need someone on site to restore a backup of the old settings.

    I usually have a PC running something like Team Viewer with an Internet-based tunnel at the remote side, as a back door in case I mess up and need to connect from inside the remote network.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,914
    edited October 2016

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    Mrs Clinton isn't the only one destroying emails....wee Mrs McTurnip, who criticises the UK government for 'a cloud of secrecy' over Brexit has been caught destroying emails relating to her High Level routine meeting with the German Foreign Minister junior minister in the German Foreign Ministry Michelin starred restaurant which has subsequently closed.....

    http://stv.tv/news/politics/1370862-calls-for-transparency-over-sturgeon-s-eu-meetings/

    They 'delete routine or administrative emails' because they have a high email volume? What a pitiful excuse. All government emails/records should be saved. Not necessarily made public, but saved nonetheless.
    Because storage is so expensive these days, and since no large organisation has ever had to deal with so much email before there exists no enterprise solution to the problems of archiving and indexing large volumes of email - especially not from those working in regulated industries, where discovery requests may be made several years into the future. Definitely not.
    Actually, big data is expensive to store; at least in a way that is easy to collate and access when you need it. I believe that CGI film companies have problems with this, and they certainly do down the road from me at Babraham.

    I'm not sure the data sizes involved with governmental emails and attachments, but the problems might more be related to retrieval.

    That's not an excuse not to do it, though.
    Big Data at F1 team or Disney level is more challenging, but any bank or financial services company worked this out a long, long time ago. Email is full of metadata by design.

    In other industries, large fines handed out by regulators for non-compliance ensure that records are retained reliably. That stick doesn't seem to affect government entities, one may even argue that it often works in their favour.
  • Options
    RobD said:

    Gadfly said:

    RobD said:

    Been a while since the last thread. I wonder if Peter is waiting silently in the wings........

    I can imagine him sitting there patiently tapping the F5 key with the word "First!" already copied to his clipboard waiting to hit Ctl+V & Enter, within the blink of an eye :-)
    He is indeed an unscrupulous bastard ;)
    Thank you for those kind words!
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,048
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    Mrs Clinton isn't the only one destroying emails....wee Mrs McTurnip, who criticises the UK government for 'a cloud of secrecy' over Brexit has been caught destroying emails relating to her High Level routine meeting with the German Foreign Minister junior minister in the German Foreign Ministry Michelin starred restaurant which has subsequently closed.....

    http://stv.tv/news/politics/1370862-calls-for-transparency-over-sturgeon-s-eu-meetings/

    They 'delete routine or administrative emails' because they have a high email volume? What a pitiful excuse. All government emails/records should be saved. Not necessarily made public, but saved nonetheless.
    Because storage is so expensive these days, and since no large organisation has ever had to deal with so much email before there exists no enterprise solution to the problems of archiving and indexing large volumes of email - especially not from those working in regulated industries, where discovery requests may be made several years into the future. Definitely not.
    Actually, big data is expensive to store; at least in a way that is easy to collate and access when you need it. I believe that CGI film companies have problems with this, and they certainly do down the road from me at Babraham.

    I'm not sure the data sizes involved with governmental emails and attachments, but the problems might more be related to retrieval.

    That's not an excuse not to do it, though.
    Big Data at F1 team or Disney level is more challenging, but any bank or financial services worked this out a long, long time ago. Email is full of metadata by design.
    Indeed (sorry, everyone). But it is not trivial, especially when security is required as well. In my experience it's also something that's easy for an organisation to cut.

    As an aside: a manager at one place I worked had the habit of testing the organisation by asking for data from a project of a year or two before; all he hardware data, tools and software code. He would then try to build the software. If he could not do it within an hour on a clean machine, he would class it as having been incorrectly stored.
  • Options
    619619 Posts: 1,784
    JackW said:

    New Hampshire & Nevada - Marist - Samples 768 & 707 - 20-24 Oct

    NH - Clinton 47 .. Trump 39
    NV - Clinton 45 .. Trump 45

    http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/polls-clinton-holds-9-point-lead-new-hampshire-tied-nevada-n673361

    according to the NV one, Clinton leads those who have voted already by 52-31, so by a BIG Margin
  • Options
    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,203
    AndyJS said:
    Like someone said, a preening marie antoinetty tit...
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Charles said:

    Jobabob said:



    Many of the nativists who are driving all this want the latter, or no immigration at all.

    Witness the deranged post from Black Rook above - a man who says we must "prove" jobs cannot be filled by domestic workers before we offer them to foreigners.

    It is this we are dealing with.

    FWIW, before my wife could take up a job with an offshoot of the civil service she had to *prove* (and the organisation had to certify) that there was no candidate anywhere in the EU who was more suitable than her for the role. They had to include the adverts, all the CVs they got in response, who they interviewed and why they rejected the,

    This was in the mid 2000s. Do you think the UK government was "deranged" for imposing such a system?
    And yet non-EU migration was high throughout this period. Such red tape did not work well at its aim.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited October 2016
    If you're interested, Pence was impressive in SLC last night

    https://youtu.be/Gsgd-pPxnso

    I honestly can't recall seeing Kaine speeches at all, my only memory was him interrupting a lot in debate
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    Charles said:

    Jobabob said:



    Many of the nativists who are driving all this want the latter, or no immigration at all.

    Witness the deranged post from Black Rook above - a man who says we must "prove" jobs cannot be filled by domestic workers before we offer them to foreigners.

    It is this we are dealing with.

    FWIW, before my wife could take up a job with an offshoot of the civil service she had to *prove* (and the organisation had to certify) that there was no candidate anywhere in the EU who was more suitable than her for the role. They had to include the adverts, all the CVs they got in response, who they interviewed and why they rejected the,

    This was in the mid 2000s. Do you think the UK government was "deranged" for imposing such a system?
    Yes, what you're describing is obviously deranged.

    It's a huge waste of time and (in this case taxpayer's) money when dealing with people who are operating in good faith, and can be trivially gamed by people who aren't.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    bazzer said:

    "I guess it'll be down to how much will she be able to say she can reduce immigration - she won't want to pin it down precisely, we know what difficulty that can lead to, but most people want immigration down quite a bit, they need to be confident anything proposed will manage that."

    Isn't the amusing bit about all the immigration furore that it will probably sort itself outself for Theresa May without her having to do anything or change any rules?

    I work with a gang of Polish guys that are already looking at moving to Germany / doing construction in Poland instead, because they have just had a 20% pay cut and now feel a bit uncomfortable here given all the politics here.

    Is it certain that getting migration down is going to be the nighmare battle and monumental achievement of leavers/kippers dreams?
    Would it be surprising if the net migration figures just resolved themselves as the most valuable/motivating workers who have been keeping inflation down in the UK and driving growth going since the Blair government quietly adopted the policy of letting in hard-working migrants to prop up our notoriously unproductive economy voted with their feet and stopped bothering to come here.

    It would be not surprising if the UK was left with a net migration figure way below 100k and nobody much interested in coming here because the nation reverted to its traditional role of sick man of europe, low productivity, fairly stagflationary, low growth...

    I think this is closer to the truth. My experience is much the same, but with Greek doctors and Spanish nurses.

    I expect non-EU migration to be much the same, with only the EU migration down.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,777
    Nicola Sturgeon’s threat of a second independence referendum is inflicting more damage than Brexit on business demand for office, factory and shop space in Scotland, chartered surveyors have warned.

    A major report by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) found that Scotland experienced the largest drop in demand for commercial property of anywhere in the UK in the three months following the EU referendum vote.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/27/survey-scottish-independence-threat-causing-more-economic-damage/
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    rcs1000 said:
    Read the Amazon reviews of his book List of the Lost.

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/List-Lost-Morrissey/dp/0141982969/

    My favourite: " It really is as bad as they're all saying it is, and I can't think of a single good thing to say about it. I can't even finish it, and I've read Richardson's 'Clarissa'."
    Major LOL
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    tyson said:

    Yes, Eichmann....But Straw reminds me of him because Eichmann was typical of the jobsworth Nazis. I don't think he was at all evil. Eichmann was a competent jobsworth who was a party apparatchik and wanted to please his bosses.

    That said, he deserved the noose, but all the Nazis did.

    Given the views you hold - and your past history in senior mental-illness maangement - I can only assume you live in a draughty glass-house. Evil cannot be defeated by evil; just lock-the-buggers-up and watch the souls chew-away any hope they have.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,914

    Charles said:

    Jobabob said:



    Many of the nativists who are driving all this want the latter, or no immigration at all.

    Witness the deranged post from Black Rook above - a man who says we must "prove" jobs cannot be filled by domestic workers before we offer them to foreigners.

    It is this we are dealing with.

    FWIW, before my wife could take up a job with an offshoot of the civil service she had to *prove* (and the organisation had to certify) that there was no candidate anywhere in the EU who was more suitable than her for the role. They had to include the adverts, all the CVs they got in response, who they interviewed and why they rejected the,

    This was in the mid 2000s. Do you think the UK government was "deranged" for imposing such a system?
    And yet non-EU migration was high throughout this period. Such red tape did not work well at its aim.
    F1 teams have made the same complains about hiring engineers. There really shouldn't be any restrictions on immigration above certain salary levels, say £60k.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,914

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    Mrs Clinton isn't the only one destroying emails....wee Mrs McTurnip, who criticises the UK government for 'a cloud of secrecy' over Brexit has been caught destroying emails relating to her High Level routine meeting with the German Foreign Minister junior minister in the German Foreign Ministry Michelin starred restaurant which has subsequently closed.....

    http://stv.tv/news/politics/1370862-calls-for-transparency-over-sturgeon-s-eu-meetings/

    They 'delete routine or administrative emails' because they have a high email volume? What a pitiful excuse. All government emails/records should be saved. Not necessarily made public, but saved nonetheless.
    Actually, big data is expensive to store; at least in a way that is easy to collate and access when you need it. I believe that CGI film companies have problems with this, and they certainly do down the road from me at Babraham.

    I'm not sure the data sizes involved with governmental emails and attachments, but the problems might more be related to retrieval.

    That's not an excuse not to do it, though.
    Big Data at F1 team or Disney level is more challenging, but any bank or financial services worked this out a long, long time ago. Email is full of metadata by design.
    Indeed (sorry, everyone). But it is not trivial, especially when security is required as well. In my experience it's also something that's easy for an organisation to cut.

    As an aside: a manager at one place I worked had the habit of testing the organisation by asking for data from a project of a year or two before; all he hardware data, tools and software code. He would then try to build the software. If he could not do it within an hour on a clean machine, he would class it as having been incorrectly stored.
    It's very easy to cut, because no-one sees the benefit of it until a crisis occurs.

    A bit like backups - proper file server with backup system for 1TB of data costs £5-10k, yet the purchasing manager insists he can buy a 1TB disk for £50 so where's the cost? Well the cost is in the daily offsite storage on tape, on the RAID array so a disk can fail etc etc.

    I like the attitude of the manager in your story - the number of companies that have problems working with things (IP!) that they did a few years ago is shocking.
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    bazzer said:

    "I guess it'll be down to how much will she be able to say she can reduce immigration - she won't want to pin it down precisely, we know what difficulty that can lead to, but most people want immigration down quite a bit, they need to be confident anything proposed will manage that."

    Isn't the amusing bit about all the immigration furore that it will probably sort itself outself for Theresa May without her having to do anything or change any rules?

    I work with a gang of Polish guys that are already looking at moving to Germany / doing construction in Poland instead, because they have just had a 20% pay cut and now feel a bit uncomfortable here given all the politics here.

    Is it certain that getting migration down is going to be the nighmare battle and monumental achievement of leavers/kippers dreams?
    Would it be surprising if the net migration figures just resolved themselves as the most valuable/motivating workers who have been keeping inflation down in the UK and driving growth going since the Blair government quietly adopted the policy of letting in hard-working migrants to prop up our notoriously unproductive economy voted with their feet and stopped bothering to come here.

    It would be not surprising if the UK was left with a net migration figure way below 100k and nobody much interested in coming here because the nation reverted to its traditional role of sick man of europe, low productivity, fairly stagflationary, low growth...

    I think this is closer to the truth. My experience is much the same, but with Greek doctors and Spanish nurses.

    I expect non-EU migration to be much the same, with only the EU migration down.
    I guess you're just going to have to work hard to improve the prestige of your department so as to attract British graduates.
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,047
    Charles said:

    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:

    Jobabob said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.

    She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html
    .
    New York City seems to manage with a similar system. Likewise Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Sydney....

    If it has no rival, surely that means even the imposition of pointless rigmarole would not have a detrimental effect so large it would be significant? I confess, I assumed your response would be to say it would not remain a World city if this system is brought in due to its rivals overtaking it.
    I'm a big fan of London, and it is at the moment clearly superior to New York City, but it is a question of degree, not dimension. NYC has lots going for it, and could easily supplant London again, as the paramount city.... though I reckon Asia will provide the next great world city, not Europe, not America.

    Hong Kong, Shanghai, Singapore? Probably Shanghai.
    The difference, though, is that Shanghai and Hong Kong are increasingly serving their hinterlands - New York City in many ways in just the aggregator of domestic US demand.

    London is just about the only true global city - with a smallish domestic market we are forced to look outside our own boundaries
    Well London did used to be the capital of a vast global empire. Perhaps the modern London melting pot likes to forget that? I do wonder how a capital of a medium sized country (1% global population, 3%(?) GDP) is supposed to be the capital of the world. Certainly not once we ar outside the single market. It seems strange in a way that London should be the financial capital of the eurozone. Ultimately it's London's financial services that make it such a focal point. But the sector has grown too big, the banks over-leveraged. And it only really started to rival New York in the 80s when we embarked on a set of reckless policies to attract the American Investment Banks by saying they could come here and ignore all Roosevelt's sensible regulation. As Private Eye puts it, Anything Goes London.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    bazzer said:

    "I guess it'll be down to how much will she be able to say she can reduce immigration - she won't want to pin it down precisely, we know what difficulty that can lead to, but most people want immigration down quite a bit, they need to be confident anything proposed will manage that."

    Isn't the amusing bit about all the immigration furore that it will probably sort itself outself for Theresa May without her having to do anything or change any rules?

    I work with a gang of Polish guys that are already looking at moving to Germany / doing construction in Poland instead, because they have just had a 20% pay cut and now feel a bit uncomfortable here given all the politics here.

    Is it certain that getting migration down is going to be the nighmare battle and monumental achievement of leavers/kippers dreams?
    Would it be surprising if the net migration figures just resolved themselves as the most valuable/motivating workers who have been keeping inflation down in the UK and driving growth going since the Blair government quietly adopted the policy of letting in hard-working migrants to prop up our notoriously unproductive economy voted with their feet and stopped bothering to come here.

    It would be not surprising if the UK was left with a net migration figure way below 100k and nobody much interested in coming here because the nation reverted to its traditional role of sick man of europe, low productivity, fairly stagflationary, low growth...

    I think this is closer to the truth. My experience is much the same, but with Greek doctors and Spanish nurses.

    I expect non-EU migration to be much the same, with only the EU migration down.
    I guess you're just going to have to work hard to improve the prestige of your department so as to attract British graduates.
    There are not enough of them to go round. Simple as that.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,749
    Charles said:

    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:

    Jobabob said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.

    She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html
    SNIP.

    - she won't want to pin it down precisely, we know what difficulty that can lead to, but most people want immigration down quite a bit, they need to be confident anything proposed will manage that.
    A small minoritt, if they refuse she will just say she could not offer any more and go to WTO terms for the time being
    How is EU talent going to be encouraged to come to London if they need a firm job offer first? I prefer the existing system to May's pointless rigmarole
    New York City seems to manage with a similar system. Likewise Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Sydney....
    None of those cities are true world cities. London is the ONLY world city now. New York pales in comparison. And as for the rest? Pfft.
    If it has no rival, surely that means even the imposition of pointless rigmarole would not have a detrimental effect so large it would be significant? I confess, I assumed your response would be to say it would not remain a World city if this system is brought in due to its rivals overtaking it.
    I'm a big fan of London, and it is at the moment clearly superior to New York City, but it is a question of degree, not dimension. NYC has lots going for it, and could easily supplant London again, as the paramount city.... though I reckon Asia will provide the next great world city, not Europe, not America.

    Hong Kong, Shanghai, Singapore? Probably Shanghai.
    The difference, though, is that Shanghai and Hong Kong are increasingly serving their hinterlands - New York City in many ways in just the aggregator of domestic US demand.

    London is just about the only true global city - with a smallish domestic market we are forced to look outside our own boundaries
    Brexit will cut London off from its hinterland and will no longer be the aggregator of European demand. The question is then whether it will continue to have the critical mass to remain the global city.
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,203
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/25/white-working-class-brexiters-politicians-bigotry?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Nice article about the way people are stereotyped, and in particular the patronising way that people were stereotyped in the referendum.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,851
    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    tyson said:

    tyson said:
    Tough sh!t.

    tyson said:

    @SeanT

    What May is proposing is a hell of alot more complicated (times 1000) than the likes of Germany simply putting a control over the ascension of new countries for a period. We have those in place at the moment that manages our immigration from outside the EU.

    Probably 99% of businesses who employ over say 30 staff would like easy access to consider EU staff without jumping through hoop after hoop.

    Tough sh!t.
    Exauntry will lose their contributions to our economy.

    Tough shit. You said it.

    And I can tell you pal of poor unskilled Eastern European migration to the area I live ,so don't go there on thinking everything is alright with mass poor Eastern European immigration.

    Says the Guy living in Italy - yes tough shit.

    So who looks after the old people in those homes when the Eastern Europeans can no longer do it? Are you happy to pay the additional tax to ensure that locals do it at a wage they can live on?

    Who said the Eastern Europeans can't do it ?

    We don't even know what deal we have on immigration yet,it could be a deal that you must have a job here first and then nothing changes in that sector.

    If you want to end unskilled jobs for immigrants then Eastern Europeans will not be able to get jobs doing the menial work in care homes.

    Unskilled with no jobs would do me.
    Robots will do all this shit, quite soon, anyway. Literally.

    So much of this debate is redundant. Uber are trialling driverless lorries. Now.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3870790/Beer-run-Self-driving-truck-goes-120-plus


    Automation will also affect bankers, accountants and even doctors and lawyers too, though Bill Gates interviewed today remained optimistic saying that if robots do more of the work we will just work shorter hours and have more leisure time. We shall see. Goodnight
    I can't imagine a worse fate for humanity than to be replaced by robots. Imagine a world in which strength, intelligence and virtue count for nothing, and we're just a bunch of pampered slobs. Surely, the robots would just slaughter such useless drones.
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    PlatoSaid said:

    If you're interested, Pence was impressive in SLC last night

    https://youtu.be/Gsgd-pPxnso

    I honestly can't recall seeing Kaine speeches at all, my only memory was him interrupting a lot in debate

    Hard to disagree - Kaine has been virtually invisible. One wonders why Hillary decided on making one of the Dems' senate races more difficult by picking him.
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    Two weeks to go and the US election is tightening. Hopefully we won't have too much on Richmond Park over the next fortnight. It really isn't important.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,989
    Good morning, everyone.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,273
    619 said:

    JackW said:

    New Hampshire & Nevada - Marist - Samples 768 & 707 - 20-24 Oct

    NH - Clinton 47 .. Trump 39
    NV - Clinton 45 .. Trump 45

    http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/polls-clinton-holds-9-point-lead-new-hampshire-tied-nevada-n673361

    according to the NV one, Clinton leads those who have voted already by 52-31, so by a BIG Margin
    Morning all,

    Awoke to news of the AP/Gfk poll and its 14 pt lead for HRC. An outlier?
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    edited October 2016
    Once again, Sporting and 538.com appear to have been moving in opposite directions over the last 24 hours, albeit modestly. Their latest ECV numbers are:

    POTUS Countdown (24 hr changes)

    Sporting Index Mid-Spreads:

    Clinton 331 (-1) Trump 205 (+1)

    538.com Predictions:

    Clinton 338(+4) Trump 199 (-5)

    Incidentally, Spreadex appears to have pulled its ECV coverage altogether which is surprising and frankly rather pathetic just 11 days before the big day.
  • Options
    dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596

    PlatoSaid said:

    If you're interested, Pence was impressive in SLC last night

    https://youtu.be/Gsgd-pPxnso

    I honestly can't recall seeing Kaine speeches at all, my only memory was him interrupting a lot in debate

    Hard to disagree - Kaine has been virtually invisible. One wonders why Hillary decided on making one of the Dems' senate races more difficult by picking him.
    one wonders even more why the republicans didn't pick a presidential candidate who can speak in a comprehensible manner
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,851

    PlatoSaid said:

    If you're interested, Pence was impressive in SLC last night

    https://youtu.be/Gsgd-pPxnso

    I honestly can't recall seeing Kaine speeches at all, my only memory was him interrupting a lot in debate

    Hard to disagree - Kaine has been virtually invisible. One wonders why Hillary decided on making one of the Dems' senate races more difficult by picking him.
    The Senate contest is genuinely a coin-toss at the moment. The House is probably safe now for the Republicans.
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    619619 Posts: 1,784

    PlatoSaid said:

    If you're interested, Pence was impressive in SLC last night

    https://youtu.be/Gsgd-pPxnso

    I honestly can't recall seeing Kaine speeches at all, my only memory was him interrupting a lot in debate

    Hard to disagree - Kaine has been virtually invisible. One wonders why Hillary decided on making one of the Dems' senate races more difficult by picking him.
    i think its more that Clinton has a host of high quality surrogates, while Trump only has Kaine as the vaguely sane one. So Kaine gets more publiciry
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    History
    October 27 1962: Soviet Senior Officer V. Arkhipov convinced his captain not to launch a nuclear torpedo on the US. https://t.co/a7LynENKaM
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,273

    Two weeks to go and the US election is tightening. Hopefully we won't have too much on Richmond Park over the next fortnight. It really isn't important.

    Where's the tightening?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,989
    Mr. Putney, that made me go check how my spread suggestions were doing. The last race buggered all but one of them, I fear. Humbug.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,914

    Good morning, everyone.

    Morning! Any early thoughts on Mexico bets? I'll probably take a look around this morning.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,856

    Two weeks to go and the US election is tightening. Hopefully we won't have too much on Richmond Park over the next fortnight. It really isn't important.

    Most of what is discussed anywhere isn't, so what? We've been talking about the us elections for years, it crops up as a side point in every thread. Things like by elections allow relief from having to focus endlessly on something anyone interested in politics has had to endure for ages.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,851

    Two weeks to go and the US election is tightening. Hopefully we won't have too much on Richmond Park over the next fortnight. It really isn't important.

    Where's the tightening?
    It's tightened slightly. The RCP average lead has gone from 7% to 5.5%.
  • Options
    Sean_F said:

    Two weeks to go and the US election is tightening. Hopefully we won't have too much on Richmond Park over the next fortnight. It really isn't important.

    Where's the tightening?
    It's tightened slightly. The RCP average lead has gone from 7% to 5.5%.
    Polling averages are an absolutely awful way of predicting elections. I never pay them any attention and that has served me very well in betting terms. However:
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-is-the-presidential-race-tightening/

    Even the pro-Clinton Nate Silver who works with averages admits it is tightening.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,989
    Mr. Sandpit, I posted about seven vague fuzzy ideas the other day (not sure whether you saw them).

    At the moment, Raikkonen may be best value for either each way win (41) or podium (4.5), prices as of last time I checked.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,851

    Sean_F said:

    Two weeks to go and the US election is tightening. Hopefully we won't have too much on Richmond Park over the next fortnight. It really isn't important.

    Where's the tightening?
    It's tightened slightly. The RCP average lead has gone from 7% to 5.5%.
    Polling averages are an absolutely awful way of predicting elections. I never pay them any attention and that has served me very well in betting terms. However:
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-is-the-presidential-race-tightening/

    Even the pro-Clinton Nate Silver who works with averages admits it is tightening.
    Poll averages show trends. It's a truism that they're less accurate than the best polls.
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    JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    edited October 2016
    I still have a terrible feeling Trump may do this. Clinton's saving grace may be early votes when Trump was on the ropes. He had a very good poll in Florida yesterday.

    To Kle4: the US election is for the most important job in the world. It's a cracking election year with a myriad exciting twists and turns. There are some fascinating state races, plus a whole batch of exciting senate and house elections and governorships (about which nothing has been written on pb.com).

    Betting opportunities are huge and this is a betting site, right?

    A by-election forced by a rich tory in a west London constituency is a distant fern seed by comparison with the elephantine US election.
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    The Independent: Theresa May is planning a ‘Bankers' Brexit’ which will ignore manufacturers, Labour says. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwhv7plTA
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited October 2016
    kle4 said:

    Two weeks to go and the US election is tightening. Hopefully we won't have too much on Richmond Park over the next fortnight. It really isn't important.

    Most of what is discussed anywhere isn't, so what? We've been talking about the us elections for years, it crops up as a side point in every thread. Things like by elections allow relief from having to focus endlessly on something anyone interested in politics has had to endure for ages.
    According to Ladbrokes Witney was their biggest ever by election market. Signs are that it will be dwarfed by Richmond.

    If people don't like coming here they don't have to.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,777
    FF43 said:

    Charles said:

    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:

    Jobabob said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.

    She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html
    SNIP.

    - she won't want to pin it down precisely, we know what difficulty that can lead to, but most people want immigration down quite a bit, they need to be confident anything proposed will manage that.
    A small minoritt, if they refuse she will just say she could not offer any more and go to WTO terms for the time being
    How is EU talent going to be encouraged to come to London if they need a firm job offer first? I prefer the existing system to May's pointless rigmarole
    New York City seems to manage with a similar system. Likewise Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Sydney....
    None of those cities are true world cities. London is the ONLY world city now. New York pales in comparison. And as for the rest? Pfft.
    If it has no rival, surely that means even the imposition of pointless rigmarole would not have a detrimental effect so large it would be significant? I confess, I assumed your response would be to say it would not remain a World city if this system is brought in due to its rivals overtaking it.
    Hong Kong, Shanghai, Singapore? Probably Shanghai.
    The difference, though, is that Shanghai and Hong Kong are increasingly serving their hinterlands - New York City in many ways in just the aggregator of domestic US demand.

    London is just about the only true global city - with a smallish domestic market we are forced to look outside our own boundaries
    Brexit will cut London off from its hinterland and will no longer be the aggregator of European demand. The question is then whether it will continue to have the critical mass to remain the global city.
    Like when the UK didn't join the Euro?
  • Options

    Two weeks to go and the US election is tightening. Hopefully we won't have too much on Richmond Park over the next fortnight. It really isn't important.

    I have to say that in this week's Political Betting Polling Matters TV Show (a mouthful or what!), there is not such as the merest mention of the US POTUS Election taking place in just 11 days' time - far and away the most important political event in the world this year.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,914

    Mr. Sandpit, I posted about seven vague fuzzy ideas the other day (not sure whether you saw them).

    At the moment, Raikkonen may be best value for either each way win (41) or podium (4.5), prices as of last time I checked.

    Thanks, will take a look back - the damn work stuff getting in the way of the important business of gambling this week - I even missed the Test Match!
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    kle4 said:

    Two weeks to go and the US election is tightening. Hopefully we won't have too much on Richmond Park over the next fortnight. It really isn't important.

    Most of what is discussed anywhere isn't, so what? We've been talking about the us elections for years, it crops up as a side point in every thread. Things like by elections allow relief from having to focus endlessly on something anyone interested in politics has had to endure for ages.

    If people don't like coming here they don't have to.
    Not your most sophisticated line of argument if I may say so. We all need to listen to valuable critiques: it's how we improve and no-one can ever say they are the complete article. The US election should be getting fuller coverage on here, if only from a betting POV. You have an enormous opportunity to educate people and take pb.com forward. After all the US election is rather more globally significant than Richmond Park, I hope you would agree.

    There are so many betting opportunities on the US race, not merely for POTUS but at Senate, House and Governorship levels as well as various ballots.
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    Two weeks to go and the US election is tightening. Hopefully we won't have too much on Richmond Park over the next fortnight. It really isn't important.

    I have to say that in this week's Political Betting Polling Matters TV Show (a mouthful or what!), there is not such as the merest mention of the US POTUS Election taking place in just 11 days' time - far and away the most important political event in the world this year.
    Yep it's very disappointing, isn't it?
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    The Independent: Theresa May is planning a ‘Bankers' Brexit’ which will ignore manufacturers, Labour says. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwhv7plTA

    Labour says a lot of things very little of it is true or actually makes any sense to anyone sane of mind...... Except to the mischief makers of course.

    Anyhow of out. Don't think I can stand the Remainer weepfest and hand wringing at 9.30 this morning as Brexitgeddon arrives with the 3rd Quarter GDP figures.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    kle4 said:

    Two weeks to go and the US election is tightening. Hopefully we won't have too much on Richmond Park over the next fortnight. It really isn't important.

    Most of what is discussed anywhere isn't, so what? We've been talking about the us elections for years, it crops up as a side point in every thread. Things like by elections allow relief from having to focus endlessly on something anyone interested in politics has had to endure for ages.

    If people don't like coming here they don't have to.
    Not your most sophisticated line of argument if I may say so. We all need to listen to valuable critiques: it's how we improve and no-one can ever say they are the complete article. The US election should be getting fuller coverage on here, if only from a betting POV. You have an enormous opportunity to educate people and take pb.com forward. After all the US election is rather more globally significant than Richmond Park, I hope you would agree.

    There are so many betting opportunities on the US race, not merely for POTUS but at Senate, House and Governorship levels as well as various ballots.
    How many people on here have the data to make informed comments on Nevada congressional district 3?
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    619619 Posts: 1,784
    Sean_F said:

    Two weeks to go and the US election is tightening. Hopefully we won't have too much on Richmond Park over the next fortnight. It really isn't important.

    Where's the tightening?
    It's tightened slightly. The RCP average lead has gone from 7% to 5.5%.
    my only concern is that RCP average includes the LA times poll, which reduces Clintonton's average lead by 1%.

    I think it will end up as a 6-7% clinton win in the end.
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    dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596

    Two weeks to go and the US election is tightening. Hopefully we won't have too much on Richmond Park over the next fortnight. It really isn't important.

    I have to say that in this week's Political Betting Polling Matters TV Show (a mouthful or what!), there is not such as the merest mention of the US POTUS Election taking place in just 11 days' time - far and away the most important political event in the world this year.
    Yep it's very disappointing, isn't it?
    it's a crowded market for podcasts on the subject tho? 538 is doing them daily.
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,203

    The Independent: Theresa May is planning a ‘Bankers' Brexit’ which will ignore manufacturers, Labour says. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwhv7plTA

    Wouldn't Europe be stupid to buy into that? Frankfurt, Dublin and Paris should be salivating at the prospect of becoming EU HQ for our financial services industry. If I was Europe, it would be Non, Nein and Nada.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,989
    Mr. Putney, one could make a case for our referendum result being more important.

    Not as big, but there's also the Austrian Presidential vote (adhesive permitting).

    Mr. Sandpit, don't go trawling the threads, I'll see about reposting them.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    I still have a terrible feeling Trump may do this. Clinton's saving grace may be early votes when Trump was on the ropes. He had a very good poll in Florida yesterday.

    To Kle4: the US election is for the most important job in the world. It's a cracking election year with a myriad exciting twists and turns. There are some fascinating state races, plus a whole batch of exciting senate and house elections and governorships (about which nothing has been written on pb.com).

    Betting opportunities are huge and this is a betting site, right?

    A by-election forced by a rich tory in a west London constituency is a distant fern seed by comparison with the elephantine US election.

    Why 'a terrible feeling'? You and your fellow Trumpettes haven't so far wavered in your fettishistic adulation of the great man. Now he's on the home straight is the the time to be out and proud!
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    kle4 said:

    Two weeks to go and the US election is tightening. Hopefully we won't have too much on Richmond Park over the next fortnight. It really isn't important.

    Most of what is discussed anywhere isn't, so what? We've been talking about the us elections for years, it crops up as a side point in every thread. Things like by elections allow relief from having to focus endlessly on something anyone interested in politics has had to endure for ages.
    According to Ladbrokes Witney was their biggest ever by election market. Signs are that it will be dwarfed by Richmond.
    Yeah, but when compared to the US elections that's like boasting about the fastest ever snail, isn't it?
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    Moses_ said:

    The Independent: Theresa May is planning a ‘Bankers' Brexit’ which will ignore manufacturers, Labour says. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwhv7plTA

    Labour says a lot of things very little of it is true or actually makes any sense to anyone sane of mind...... Except to the mischief makers of course.

    Anyhow of out. Don't think I can stand the Remainer weepfest and hand wringing at 9.30 this morning as Brexitgeddon arrives with the 3rd Quarter GDP figures.
    I think that's an unintelligent response the article. You can profoundly disagree with McDonnell but still notice what he's trying to do. He 's accepting Brexit framing " Bankers Brexit " " Control " and trying to frame a left response. If he's framing British politics as People's Brexit vs Bankers Brexit he's accepting Brexit. His position is closer to yours that mine in that respect. Of course if you wish to let your tribalism blind you shifts in framing by senior politicans it's a great country.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Scott Adams continues to be a great read, I can't understand why so many don't get what and why he's doing this. Everything is taken out of context and used by each side as it suits them.

    I'll definitely buy his book on this.

    http://blog.dilbert.com/post/152337049156/watch-the-persuasion-battle
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    News from this mornings Aberdeen Press and Journal.

    Industry Chiefs have claimed the value of UK fisherman's catch could double due to Brexit. Bertie Armstrong , head of the Scottish Fishermans Federation stated "There is a prize to be won ".

    Armstrong stated that the Fishing minister Geoarge Eustice agreed at their recent meeting that a new basic framework of UK fishing policies should be established before the end of the year to replace the EU Common Fisheries policy.

    Guess someone is taking back control.........
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,851
    619 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Two weeks to go and the US election is tightening. Hopefully we won't have too much on Richmond Park over the next fortnight. It really isn't important.

    Where's the tightening?
    It's tightened slightly. The RCP average lead has gone from 7% to 5.5%.
    my only concern is that RCP average includes the LA times poll, which reduces Clintonton's average lead by 1%.

    I think it will end up as a 6-7% clinton win in the end.
    But, it also includes outliers giving Clinton big leads. I expect it will be a bit tighter than that. The election campaign seems to move in cycles in which Clinton builds up a big lead, before the race tightens up again.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,989
    edited October 2016
    From Many Threads Ago (FMTA): as well as the Raikkonen bets mentioned below, I had a look at:
    Perez, winner each way, 200/1
    Red Bull, top score, 6
    Ricciardo, race leader after lap 1, 10
    Perez, podium, 15
    Williams, double points finish 2.75

    And, an extra one I saw just now, Ferrari, top scoring team, 11.

    Edited extra bit: after the discussion on aerodynamics and power, I think that most of these are tosh.
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    bazzer said:

    "I guess it'll be down to how much will she be able to say she can reduce immigration - she won't want to pin it down precisely, we know what difficulty that can lead to, but most people want immigration down quite a bit, they need to be confident anything proposed will manage that."

    Isn't the amusing bit about all the immigration furore that it will probably sort itself outself for Theresa May without her having to do anything or change any rules?

    I work with a gang of Polish guys that are already looking at moving to Germany / doing construction in Poland instead, because they have just had a 20% pay cut and now feel a bit uncomfortable here given all the politics here.

    Is it certain that getting migration down is going to be the nighmare battle and monumental achievement of leavers/kippers dreams?
    Would it be surprising if the net migration figures just resolved themselves as the most valuable/motivating workers who have been keeping inflation down in the UK and driving growth going since the Blair government quietly adopted the policy of letting in hard-working migrants to prop up our notoriously unproductive economy voted with their feet and stopped bothering to come here.

    It would be not surprising if the UK was left with a net migration figure way below 100k and nobody much interested in coming here because the nation reverted to its traditional role of sick man of europe, low productivity, fairly stagflationary, low growth...

    The problem with your thesis is that the UK's productivity growth has collapsed since 2004:

    Productivity Growth
    1985-1995 24%
    1995-2005 24%
    2005-2015 4%

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/labourproductivity/datasets/historicalseriesoflabourproductivity

    Now there are various reasons why productivity growth has stalled in Britain but letting in millions of low skilled workers has not been helpful there ?
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    Mr. Putney, that made me go check how my spread suggestions were doing. The last race buggered all but one of them, I fear. Humbug.

    Yep .... spread-betting is scarey. That said, I'm quite hopeful of my buy of Clinton's ECVs at 329. I'm reasonably confident that there's limited realistic downside of perhaps around 25-30 ECVs and maybe potential upside of around 40-45 ECVs. But that's only MY OPINION !

    Stand back and await much egg on face.

    It's essential that anyone playing these markets should do their own careful research, especially as regards assessing their maximum acceptable risk.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    PlatoSaid said:

    Scott Adams continues to be a great read, I can't understand why so many don't get what and why he's doing this. Everything is taken out of context and used by each side as it suits them.

    I'll definitely buy his book on this.

    http://blog.dilbert.com/post/152337049156/watch-the-persuasion-battle

    He's a shit stirring controversy merchant with a streak of narcissism a million miles wide. His self aggrandising nonsense is tiresome bullshit and utterly transparent.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Moses_ said:

    The Independent: Theresa May is planning a ‘Bankers' Brexit’ which will ignore manufacturers, Labour says. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwhv7plTA

    Labour says a lot of things very little of it is true or actually makes any sense to anyone sane of mind...... Except to the mischief makers of course.

    Anyhow of out. Don't think I can stand the Remainer weepfest and hand wringing at 9.30 this morning as Brexitgeddon arrives with the 3rd Quarter GDP figures.
    I think that's an unintelligent response the article. You can profoundly disagree with McDonnell but still notice what he's trying to do. He 's accepting Brexit framing " Bankers Brexit " " Control " and trying to frame a left response. If he's framing British politics as People's Brexit vs Bankers Brexit he's accepting Brexit. His position is closer to yours that mine in that respect. Of course if you wish to let your tribalism blind you shifts in framing by senior politicans it's a great country.
    I really don't care what that muppet spouts. He is a divisive , 70's throwback idiot that gives succour to the enemies of this country. That's all that's needed to be known.

    Now definitely off out :wink:
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,989
    Mr. Putney, if I do dip my toe into the water next year, I might do it for (even for me) tiny stakes. Things like 10p a place. Use it as a test year more than anything else.
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Sandpit said:

    Mr. Sandpit, I posted about seven vague fuzzy ideas the other day (not sure whether you saw them).

    At the moment, Raikkonen may be best value for either each way win (41) or podium (4.5), prices as of last time I checked.

    Thanks, will take a look back - the damn work stuff getting in the way of the important business of gambling this week - I even missed the Test Match!
    I empathise, Sandpit. My week has been similarly heavy laden!
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    619 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Two weeks to go and the US election is tightening. Hopefully we won't have too much on Richmond Park over the next fortnight. It really isn't important.

    Where's the tightening?
    It's tightened slightly. The RCP average lead has gone from 7% to 5.5%.
    my only concern is that RCP average includes the LA times poll, which reduces Clintonton's average lead by 1%.

    I think it will end up as a 6-7% clinton win in the end.
    Interesting. Let's discuss that on the 9th. Can't wait.
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    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:

    Jobabob said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Asa thinks immigration is where May will compromise. While her performance as Home Secretary might support that, and I would be happy with a compromise on it, it seems like politically it is much better for her not to on that point.

    She will almost certainly require a job offer to come to the uk rather than a points system, if that counts as a compromise
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775069/No-job-t-Britain-s-blueprint-curb-EU-migrants-post-Brexit-revealed-rigorous-points-based-system.html
    SNIP.

    - she won't want to pin it down precisely, we know what difficulty that can lead to, but most people want immigration down quite a bit, they need to be confident anything proposed will manage that.
    A small minoritt, if they refuse she will just say she could not offer any more and go to WTO terms for the time being
    How is EU talent going to be encouraged to come to London if they need a firm job offer first? I prefer the existing system to May's pointless rigmarole
    New York City seems to manage with a similar system. Likewise Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Sydney....
    None of those cities are true world cities. London is the ONLY world city now. New York pales in comparison. And as for the rest? Pfft.
    I'm always amused by Londoners desperately claiming that their city is THE WORLD CITY.

    I suppose it consoles them that they live in THE WORLD CITY while having a lower standard of living than they would get elsewhere in Britain.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,708
    PlatoSaid said:

    Scott Adams continues to be a great read, I can't understand why so many don't get what and why he's doing this. Everything is taken out of context and used by each side as it suits them.

    I'll definitely buy his book on this.

    http://blog.dilbert.com/post/152337049156/watch-the-persuasion-battle

    Scott Adams sounds more than a bit nuts.
    And the thought of wading through 1000 plus pages to check whether that's true doesn't exactly appeal...
    (So a bit like those 'devastating' Wikileaks Clinton email dumps.)
    http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/09/dilbert_creator_scott_adams_gets_trump_like_no_one_else.html

    To read his blog—and I recently spent a week mainlining the 1,000-plus pages that he’s published in the 15 months since Trump declared his candidacy—is to overdose on a custom blend of testosterone, paranoia, and self-celebration. Here he is explaining that in the event of a Trump victory, he, Adams, “would be a top-ten assassination target.” Here he is lamenting the “humiliation of the American male,” as evidenced by a dishwasher detergent ad. Here he is unforgettably (I’ve tried) attempting to hypnotize his readers into having the best orgasms of their lives (“I want you wet, or hard, and especially obedient …”).
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,134


    Even the pro-Clinton Nate Silver who works with averages admits it is tightening.

    Is he "pro-Clinton"? Or do you just mean you don't like the results of his model.

    Anyhow, his projected lead for Clinton had tightened a bit - as of yesterday, it had dropped by 1 percentage point over a week and a half. But today it has gone back up by half a percentage point. With 12 days to go and with early voting in full swing, that kind of movement isn't going to make much difference. There has to be a large, systematic error in the polls for Trump to win.
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    619619 Posts: 1,784
    Nigelb said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Scott Adams continues to be a great read, I can't understand why so many don't get what and why he's doing this. Everything is taken out of context and used by each side as it suits them.

    I'll definitely buy his book on this.

    http://blog.dilbert.com/post/152337049156/watch-the-persuasion-battle

    Scott Adams sounds more than a bit nuts.
    And the thought of wading through 1000 plus pages to check whether that's true doesn't exactly appeal...
    (So a bit like those 'devastating' Wikileaks Clinton email dumps.)
    http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/09/dilbert_creator_scott_adams_gets_trump_like_no_one_else.html

    To read his blog—and I recently spent a week mainlining the 1,000-plus pages that he’s published in the 15 months since Trump declared his candidacy—is to overdose on a custom blend of testosterone, paranoia, and self-celebration. Here he is explaining that in the event of a Trump victory, he, Adams, “would be a top-ten assassination target.” Here he is lamenting the “humiliation of the American male,” as evidenced by a dishwasher detergent ad. Here he is unforgettably (I’ve tried) attempting to hypnotize his readers into having the best orgasms of their lives (“I want you wet, or hard, and especially obedient …”).
    He also recently said ISIS were Clinton supporters because they wont commit a terrorisy atrocity to help trump win, so i assume Plato is joking about him having insight
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    From Many Threads Ago (FMTA): as well as the Raikkonen bets mentioned below, I had a look at:
    Perez, winner each way, 200/1
    Red Bull, top score, 6
    Ricciardo, race leader after lap 1, 10
    Perez, podium, 15
    Williams, double points finish 2.75

    And, an extra one I saw just now, Ferrari, top scoring team, 11.

    Edited extra bit: after the discussion on aerodynamics and power, I think that most of these are tosh.

    Not content with one 250/1 winner this season ( the greatest ever recorded since the inception of PB.com btw), but you seemingly had your sights set on another monster 200/1 shot.
    Just think, if you'd coupled these together, you'd have been looking at odds of 50,000/1 for the double .... now that's what I would call tipping were it to come off!
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    Chris said:


    Even the pro-Clinton Nate Silver who works with averages admits it is tightening.

    Is he "pro-Clinton"? Or do you just mean you don't like the results of his model.
    He was hopelessly awry about Bernie Sanders for months because he allows his bias to cloud his judgement. He similarly got the Trump nomination wrong and underestimated his support.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,989
    Mr. Putney, Perez was third in Monaco. I (wrongly, it seems) though Mexico was twistier than it was and also forgot the altitude factor (that makes Williams more of a threat to Force India).

    That said, I might put a pound on. Just to see. And for legitimised bragging rights if it comes off :p

    I also backed McLaren at Monaco at 41 to top score. Had two cars ahead collided, that would've come off [obviously you don't get anything for 'would'ves' but it was nice to see it was plausible].
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,053

    The Independent: Theresa May is planning a ‘Bankers' Brexit’ which will ignore manufacturers, Labour says. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwhv7plTA

    Wouldn't Europe be stupid to buy into that? Frankfurt, Dublin and Paris should be salivating at the prospect of becoming EU HQ for our financial services industry. If I was Europe, it would be Non, Nein and Nada.
    Corbyn rubbish, she is offering a job offer to come to the UK as the basis for deals, hardly a 'Bankers' Budget'
This discussion has been closed.