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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In betting terms the Richmond Park by-election is one of the t
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In betting terms the Richmond Park by-election is one of the tightest races in decades
I can’t recall the opening 24 hours of a political betting market where the outcome has appeared so tight. First the opening odds all made Zac the favourite. Then that moved to the LDs until news came through the the Tories would stand aside. That led to the Zac price tightening and for a short while you could get the LDs at longer than evens.
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Yes, but it was a close-run thing.
id want to see the lib dem candidate first
Bloody odd having parties not bothering.
Awaiting my 2 1/4 lb silverside beef-joint to finish cooking. Then let it stand.
[Mix of Septic and Jock recipes: Looks yummie!]
I can understand (without agreeing) why Batley and Spen went uncontested, but for anywhere else it's ridiculous.
@malcolmg
''What makes you think Scotland is a basket case Alan,'
Would you care to tell which figures are incorrect in this article ?
Scotland's a bigger economic basket case than Greece | Daily Mail ...
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article.../Scotland-s-bigger-economic-basket-case-Greece.ht...
Scotland is a bigger economic basket case than Greece: Country would have to double basic ... Published: 19:18 EST, 12 October 2016 | Updated: 02:09 EST, 13 October 2016
Which means there's a lot of value on Zac at current odds.
I'm on him at between 1.9 & 2.38 for a fairly significant sum. The only reason I'm not even more balls-deep in Zac is because I need to preserve my betting bank for the US election.
Hopefully a constituency poll will calibrate the odds and knock some sense into the market.
Shameful from Mrs May.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/daves-bargain-basement-book-deal-isnt-quite-big-earner-hoping/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Lunchtime_Espresso_26102016
Poor old Cammo; my heart bleeds.
Actually I'm reading "Unleashing Demons" by Craig Oliver, which is a fast paced account of the Brexit fight from the view of No 10. Not a bad read, and good in parts.
Also, how is it a referendum? If Goldsmith wins, it doesn't change anything regarding the runway. If he loses, it doesn't change anything regarding the runway.
Kudos for sticking by his promise, but it was a damned silly promise to make in the first place. [In the Middle Ages, several dozen knights went into battle wearing eyepatches, swearing they'd only remove them once they'd killed their first man. Most of them ended up rather dead, rather quickly].
Although constituency polling has gone out of fashion
"Mr Goldsmith, you are running as an Independent, but were previously a Conservative, were the Conservative Mayoral candidate, and have no opposition from an official Conservative candidate. Can you confirm you will not be the Conservative candidate in 2020?"
It's a tough one for him. "No, I can't" = I'm an Independent solely to avoid losing this seat. "Yes, I can" = I have no political ambition other than being the Richmond Park MP.
[several dozen? didn't they have twitter or summat? you'd think after the first they'd have thought twice. where was this, btw?]
For most people in the countty, Heathrow is a complete non-issue. The people of Richmond will go to the polls, and they will either elect a person who is powerless to stop a third runway, or they will elect a person who is powerless to stop a third runway.
I do agree that the economy is not the be all and end all, but there's no comparable migrant issue (is there?) for the SNP to latch onto. The economy has tricky issues, not just trading stats but currency too.
Mr. Dugarbandier, alas, I have only the fuzziest of recollections from, I think, the Unofficial Manual for being a Knight, by Michael Prestwich. Height of chivalry, so I'd guess 12th century, maybe early 13th.
Labour will put a candidate up but it does depend on whether the BME cohort swings behind the LDs from Lab.
Zac has a huge personal following in the area and unlike Witney he is the incumbent.
Ladbrokes odds of 2/1 him winning by over 2500 look good to me unless the Yellow team do put in a heavyweight like Cable or Davey.
Sui Generis situations call for Sui Generis responses. This isn't a normal Byelection so if handled carefully I think the case for the Greens and Labour sitting it out is strong. And doing so needn't mean formally endorsing the Lib Dems.
What empowering, sovereignty-boosting reading.
You're also unfair to castigate one of two dreadful campaigns. I'm still waiting for nuclear war, the collapse of Western Civilisation, and the withdrawal of free bus passes for the elderly.
"Mr Goldsmith, your resignation does nothing to prevent Heathrow expansion, so why are you inflicting this necessary by-election on us?"
Is he a Conservative flying under a flag of convenience? Or is he an Independent?
Now as an anarcho liberal I find all this localist direct democracy and self recall rather fun. But is it Conservative ?
The rules and regs of local associations do say though that if you do anything to bring the party into disrepute then you will face disciplinary action. Isnt that the case here or has he resigned from the party. I still am not 100% sure
They won't vote.
For betting purposes, they don't matter.
Zac promised at the 2015 general election that he would resign and fight a by-election if the government backed LHR3 - as it now has, and as he has.
If his threat to do so was so unacceptable, he should never have been approved as a Conservative candidate. On the other hand, if that threat was acceptable, then it follows that the party ought to tolerate the inevitable consequence should the circumstances come about.
In fact, not only was Goldsmith approved as a candidate for 2015 but he was further honoured by the party when it chose him to be the London mayoral candidate; one of the most high-profile positions in the party.
The reality is that whether he's taking the Conservative whip or not, he'll still vote pretty much exactly the same either way so in terms of the government's majority, it makes virtually no difference. How he goes about winning a nomination for 2020 is a different matter. I doubt he'd get a second clear run.
Bear in mind that Zac doesn't actually want to do this, he's doing it because he promised to, before getting elected. Other MPs wouldn't be in the same position.
No idea, but this must make it less likely.
Incidentally, I believe the geniuses of F1 have again scheduled a race weekend to clash with Le Mans next year.
It isn't obvious why people would vote FOR Zac. He's done the honourable thing by resigning, but you don't vote in favour of a resignation that has already happened nor for a response to failure. Resigning strengthens Mr Goldsmith's cause of keeping the Government honest on Heathrow? I doubt anyone would think that. And by the way is he still a Conservative and a member of the party that is ploughing on regardless with the Heathrow expansion?
Vote for Zac simply to register a protest about Heathrow, even though it probably won't make a difference? Perhaps. Voting for the Lib Dems could do the same and that party will claim their protest is more effective than just rather diffident individual.
Maybe people will vote for a man that they think is decent and honourable, as shown by his resignation. Will it be enough to keep his seat?
Ultimately, Mrs May's government knows the views of the people of Richmond. She's not stupid. Unlike this by-election.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-37776505
But there we are.
I assume alot of the states will be settled up on the night, will the main event be though. And will they trim to the 5 actual runners at any point. I can't recall 100% how it was done in '12.
I don't think it follows that the good burghers of Richmond are going to head down to the polling booths in huge numbers to vote LibDem, however.
Goldsmith has promised to resign since forever over this essentially non party political issue.
All putting up a candidate does is increase the risk of losing; there is no upside.
If Goldsmith wins, then effectively no change; if he loses, then it's on this single issue - or at least that's a far more plausible line when the Lib Dems sound off about the rejection of a mandateless government..
There is no obligation for a political party to put forward a self-destructive candidate in a by election.
Unlike, say, the EU ?
:-)
I'm not expecting to be able to recycle my bank.
A single event is not a 'formula'.
Fivethirtyeight (polls-only): 16.6%
Huffington Post: 25.6%
New York Times: 22.5%
So, depending on who you believe, the odds on the band are about right or quite good value.
I would far rather an unprincipled pragmatist conduct the Brexit negotiations on our behalf, than a deeply principled naif.
"Within hours of May criticizing loose monetary policy in her Conservative Conference speech this month, her office moved to limit the damage by reassuring Carney the words were clumsily expressed, according to two people familiar with the matter. The Treasury -- which wasn’t consulted on the speech -- has since been taking a more active role in the crafting of May’s statements on the economy.
The government’s overtures to mend the relationship with Carney come as he counts down to a decision by year end on whether to leave the BOE as planned in 2018 or serve a full eight-year term until 2021."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-25/may-said-to-want-carney-to-stay-at-boe-as-he-reflects-on-role
She's like Alec Douglas-Home meets Gordon Brown
Imagine the hustings:
"I think the government's decision on heathrow is catastrophic"
"I agree with my opponent, it's just awful. Also, the government's brexit plans are catastrophic, don't you agree Zac?"
"..."
In a place that voted 70% remain there are surely enough people that voted tory in 2015 but also remain, that won't back him this time.
You may have heard the news already, of course.
Thank you.
@nickgourevitch selzer poll of FL today--off a listed sample--had trump at 10 among black voters and like 36 with hispanics