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SystemSystem Posts: 12,683
edited October 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov polling on what would happen if there was no UKIP

Westminster voting intention for Election Data /YouGov CON 42%LAB 26%LD 8%UKIP 12%GRN 5%F/W 19-20th Oct

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Comments

  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,388
    Seems logical.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,910
    edited October 2016
    A distant second like Corbyn's Labour.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,965
    Two Americas:

    This election is much more than Trump vs. Clinton. It's old America vs. new America
    http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-election-contrast-20161020-snap-story.html
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    Looks like the Party's over for Jezza!
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    So Brexit has basically unsplit the right and resplit the left. Back to the good old days.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Con > Lab+LD+Grn
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Con & Lab not gaining much different from 'Fair Share' of the UKIP Vote - why do the LIb Dems do disproportionately well (about double)? - the 'None of the above' party?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    Lol I'd love to know who the UKIP -> LD switchers are xD
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    CarlottaVance said:

    Con & Lab not gaining much different from 'Fair Share' of the UKIP Vote - why do the LIb Dems do disproportionately well (about double)? - the 'None of the above' party?

    In 2015 in seat after seat the UKIP rise mirrored almost exactly the LD fall.

    Pox on both your houses voters.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    rottenborough said:

    Two Americas:

    This election is much more than Trump vs. Clinton. It's old America vs. new America
    http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-election-contrast-20161020-snap-story.html

    It's profitable America at the moment :)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    FPT
    Sean_F said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Jobabob said:

    The Brexiteers' quintuple whammy.

    Greater borrowing.
    More unemployment.
    Weakened pound.
    Reduced investment.
    Rising prices.

    Borrowing below what Labour bequeathed and will do still.
    Employment rate at a record high.
    Weakened pound.
    Increased investment.or a
    Inflation well below target.
    I'm old enough to remember a time when governments would have been delighted by 2.5% growth, 1% inflation, and 5% unemployment. In fact, had you suggested to politicians that such an outcome was possible, they'd have laughed you to scorn.
    Will people like you please make up your minds whether this is a period of uncommon prosperity for the country or a stagnant dystopia where ordinary people are engaged in a Sisyphean struggle to keep their heads above water while being pushed down by an unaccountable elite bureaucracy?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    williamglenn said:

    FPT

    Sean_F said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Jobabob said:

    The Brexiteers' quintuple whammy.

    Greater borrowing.
    More unemployment.
    Weakened pound.
    Reduced investment.
    Rising prices.

    Borrowing below what Labour bequeathed and will do still.
    Employment rate at a record high.
    Weakened pound.
    Increased investment.or a
    Inflation well below target.
    I'm old enough to remember a time when governments would have been delighted by 2.5% growth, 1% inflation, and 5% unemployment. In fact, had you suggested to politicians that such an outcome was possible, they'd have laughed you to scorn.
    Will people like you please make up your minds whether this is a period of uncommon prosperity for the country or a stagnant dystopia where ordinary people are engaged in a Sisyphean struggle to keep their heads above water while being pushed down by an unaccountable elite bureaucracy?
    It can't be both? We are doing well but take off the breaks and we could do better ...
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Interesting result. – However I don’t think UKIP are planning to voluntarily disband quite yet…
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    MaxPB - Are Europhiles welcome in your new party?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    Curse of the new thread! FPT:

    So I've been thinking about it for a while, I think it is time to form a new political party. I'm going to call it the Free Liberal Party (FLP).

    The party stands for:

    Free speech
    Free trade
    Free market

    In order of importance.

    In practice that means:

    1. No more hate speech laws, no more safe spaces. Open discussion of any idea, however distasteful they might be.

    2. The nation will seek free trade with any party who is willing and generally have low import tariffs for nations who don't. The nation will also work within the WTO to eliminate NTBs on a sector by sector basis rather than seek an imposition of standards in the way that the US does.

    3. The nation will seek a free market solution to commerce and labour with a base income of £12.50/h. With that we will eliminate payroll taxes and lower corporation tax to 12.5% for small and medium business and 15% for big business. We will also eliminate all in working benefits and tax credits and out of work benefits will be made on a contributory basis with a minimum 12 months of work in the last 24 months required to qualify. Unemployment benefits will be paid for up to 12 months at a rate of 60% of previous gross income.

    4. We don't give a shit if you're gay, black, white or whatever. Everyone is welcome as long as they welcome everyone else.

    Anyone who wants to join is welcome to do so.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Pulpstar said:

    Lol I'd love to know who the UKIP -> LD switchers are xD

    Probably the same people as 2015 LD to UKIP switchers. The headline movers are pretty much the return of where the kippers came from in the first place.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,543
    williamglenn said:

    FPT

    Sean_F said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Jobabob said:

    The Brexiteers' quintuple whammy.

    Greater borrowing.
    More unemployment.
    Weakened pound.
    Reduced investment.
    Rising prices.

    Borrowing below what Labour bequeathed and will do still.
    Employment rate at a record high.
    Weakened pound.
    Increased investment.or a
    Inflation well below target.
    I'm old enough to remember a time when governments would have been delighted by 2.5% growth, 1% inflation, and 5% unemployment. In fact, had you suggested to politicians that such an outcome was possible, they'd have laughed you to scorn.
    Will people like you please make up your minds whether this is a period of uncommon prosperity for the country or a stagnant dystopia where ordinary people are engaged in a Sisyphean struggle to keep their heads above water while being pushed down by an unaccountable elite bureaucracy?
    It's neither.

    Growth is currently adequate, but over the longer term, (say, since 2000) it's been poor. The numbers for inflation and unemployment are decent, but we have the problem of a big balance of payments deficit that needs to be sorted.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    @MaxPB I'll join if we ever leave the EU ;)
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    MaxPB said:

    Curse of the new thread! FPT:

    So I've been thinking about it for a while, I think it is time to form a new political party. I'm going to call it the Free Liberal Party (FLP).

    The party stands for:

    Free speech
    Free trade
    Free market

    In order of importance.

    In practice that means:

    1. No more hate speech laws, no more safe spaces. Open discussion of any idea, however distasteful they might be.

    2. The nation will seek free trade with any party who is willing and generally have low import tariffs for nations who don't. The nation will also work within the WTO to eliminate NTBs on a sector by sector basis rather than seek an imposition of standards in the way that the US does.

    3. The nation will seek a free market solution to commerce and labour with a base income of £12.50/h. With that we will eliminate payroll taxes and lower corporation tax to 12.5% for small and medium business and 15% for big business. We will also eliminate all in working benefits and tax credits and out of work benefits will be made on a contributory basis with a minimum 12 months of work in the last 24 months required to qualify. Unemployment benefits will be paid for up to 12 months at a rate of 60% of previous gross income.

    4. We don't give a shit if you're gay, black, white or whatever. Everyone is welcome as long as they welcome everyone else.

    Anyone who wants to join is welcome to do so.

    Sounds alot like the Patrick Party
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    MaxPB said:

    Curse of the new thread! FPT:

    So I've been thinking about it for a while, I think it is time to form a new political party. I'm going to call it the Free Liberal Party (FLP).

    The party stands for:

    Free speech
    Free trade
    Free market

    In order of importance.

    In practice that means:

    1. No more hate speech laws, no more safe spaces. Open discussion of any idea, however distasteful they might be.

    2. The nation will seek free trade with any party who is willing and generally have low import tariffs for nations who don't. The nation will also work within the WTO to eliminate NTBs on a sector by sector basis rather than seek an imposition of standards in the way that the US does.

    3. The nation will seek a free market solution to commerce and labour with a base income of £12.50/h. With that we will eliminate payroll taxes and lower corporation tax to 12.5% for small and medium business and 15% for big business. We will also eliminate all in working benefits and tax credits and out of work benefits will be made on a contributory basis with a minimum 12 months of work in the last 24 months required to qualify. Unemployment benefits will be paid for up to 12 months at a rate of 60% of previous gross income.

    4. We don't give a shit if you're gay, black, white or whatever. Everyone is welcome as long as they welcome everyone else.

    Anyone who wants to join is welcome to do so.

    So how will you deal with Islamic hate speakers?

    What is your policy on immigration?

    I think there is a need in the cities for a centre right party that isn't loathed like the Tories.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,579
    MaxPB said:

    Curse of the new thread! FPT:

    So I've been thinking about it for a while, I think it is time to form a new political party. I'm going to call it the Free Liberal Party (FLP).

    The party stands for:

    Free speech
    Free trade
    Free market

    In order of importance.

    In practice that means:

    1. No more hate speech laws, no more safe spaces. Open discussion of any idea, however distasteful they might be.

    2. The nation will seek free trade with any party who is willing and generally have low import tariffs for nations who don't. The nation will also work within the WTO to eliminate NTBs on a sector by sector basis rather than seek an imposition of standards in the way that the US does.

    3. The nation will seek a free market solution to commerce and labour with a base income of £12.50/h. With that we will eliminate payroll taxes and lower corporation tax to 12.5% for small and medium business and 15% for big business. We will also eliminate all in working benefits and tax credits and out of work benefits will be made on a contributory basis with a minimum 12 months of work in the last 24 months required to qualify. Unemployment benefits will be paid for up to 12 months at a rate of 60% of previous gross income.

    4. We don't give a shit if you're gay, black, white or whatever. Everyone is welcome as long as they welcome everyone else.

    Anyone who wants to join is welcome to do so.

    What if I want to exercise my rights to free speech to say that we should send all the black people back to where they come from?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    edited October 2016
    williamglenn said:

    MaxPB - Are Europhiles welcome in your new party?

    Yes, anyone is welcome. There is no set agenda on Europe, but EU membership isn't compatible with the party as it doesn't allow for point two.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    You had me until this Max:
    MaxPB said:

    3. The nation will seek a free market solution to commerce and labour with a base income of £12.50/h. With that we will eliminate payroll taxes and lower corporation tax to 12.5% for small and medium business and 15% for big business. We will also eliminate all in working benefits and tax credits and out of work benefits will be made on a contributory basis with a minimum 12 months of work in the last 24 months required to qualify. Unemployment benefits will be paid for up to 12 months at a rate of 60% of previous gross income.

    Minimum wage to increase by 75% overnight?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    tpfkar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Curse of the new thread! FPT:

    So I've been thinking about it for a while, I think it is time to form a new political party. I'm going to call it the Free Liberal Party (FLP).

    The party stands for:

    Free speech
    Free trade
    Free market

    In order of importance.

    In practice that means:

    1. No more hate speech laws, no more safe spaces. Open discussion of any idea, however distasteful they might be.

    2. The nation will seek free trade with any party who is willing and generally have low import tariffs for nations who don't. The nation will also work within the WTO to eliminate NTBs on a sector by sector basis rather than seek an imposition of standards in the way that the US does.

    3. The nation will seek a free market solution to commerce and labour with a base income of £12.50/h. With that we will eliminate payroll taxes and lower corporation tax to 12.5% for small and medium business and 15% for big business. We will also eliminate all in working benefits and tax credits and out of work benefits will be made on a contributory basis with a minimum 12 months of work in the last 24 months required to qualify. Unemployment benefits will be paid for up to 12 months at a rate of 60% of previous gross income.

    4. We don't give a shit if you're gay, black, white or whatever. Everyone is welcome as long as they welcome everyone else.

    Anyone who wants to join is welcome to do so.

    What if I want to exercise my rights to free speech to say that we should send all the black people back to where they come from?
    Don't be surprised if you get beaten up?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    edited October 2016
    MaxPB said:

    williamglenn said:

    MaxPB - Are Europhiles welcome in your new party?

    Yes, anyone is welcome. There is no set agenda on Europe, but EU membership isn't compatible with the party as it doesn't allow for point two.
    Aha... So you already have your Clause 4 and you haven't even got off the ground.

    Still good luck to you. It would be 'interesting' to see how much electoral support Hannanite utopianism gets...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    tpfkar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Curse of the new thread! FPT:

    So I've been thinking about it for a while, I think it is time to form a new political party. I'm going to call it the Free Liberal Party (FLP).

    The party stands for:

    Free speech
    Free trade
    Free market

    In order of importance.

    In practice that means:

    1. No more hate speech laws, no more safe spaces. Open discussion of any idea, however distasteful they might be.

    2. The nation will seek free trade with any party who is willing and generally have low import tariffs for nations who don't. The nation will also work within the WTO to eliminate NTBs on a sector by sector basis rather than seek an imposition of standards in the way that the US does.

    3. The nation will seek a free market solution to commerce and labour with a base income of £12.50/h. With that we will eliminate payroll taxes and lower corporation tax to 12.5% for small and medium business and 15% for big business. We will also eliminate all in working benefits and tax credits and out of work benefits will be made on a contributory basis with a minimum 12 months of work in the last 24 months required to qualify. Unemployment benefits will be paid for up to 12 months at a rate of 60% of previous gross income.

    4. We don't give a shit if you're gay, black, white or whatever. Everyone is welcome as long as they welcome everyone else.

    Anyone who wants to join is welcome to do so.

    What if I want to exercise my rights to free speech to say that we should send all the black people back to where they come from?
    Then I'd use my free speech to say why you're wrong.

    Whatever happened to "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    tpfkar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Curse of the new thread! FPT:

    So I've been thinking about it for a while, I think it is time to form a new political party. I'm going to call it the Free Liberal Party (FLP).

    The party stands for:

    Free speech
    Free trade
    Free market

    In order of importance.

    In practice that means:

    1. No more hate speech laws, no more safe spaces. Open discussion of any idea, however distasteful they might be.

    2. The nation will seek free trade with any party who is willing and generally have low import tariffs for nations who don't. The nation will also work within the WTO to eliminate NTBs on a sector by sector basis rather than seek an imposition of standards in the way that the US does.

    3. The nation will seek a free market solution to commerce and labour with a base income of £12.50/h. With that we will eliminate payroll taxes and lower corporation tax to 12.5% for small and medium business and 15% for big business. We will also eliminate all in working benefits and tax credits and out of work benefits will be made on a contributory basis with a minimum 12 months of work in the last 24 months required to qualify. Unemployment benefits will be paid for up to 12 months at a rate of 60% of previous gross income.

    4. We don't give a shit if you're gay, black, white or whatever. Everyone is welcome as long as they welcome everyone else.

    Anyone who wants to join is welcome to do so.

    What if I want to exercise my rights to free speech to say that we should send all the black people back to where they come from?
    Not welcome in the party, not illegal I guess.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    nunu said:

    MaxPB said:

    Curse of the new thread! FPT:

    So I've been thinking about it for a while, I think it is time to form a new political party. I'm going to call it the Free Liberal Party (FLP).

    The party stands for:

    Free speech
    Free trade
    Free market

    In order of importance.

    In practice that means:

    1. No more hate speech laws, no more safe spaces. Open discussion of any idea, however distasteful they might be.

    2. The nation will seek free trade with any party who is willing and generally have low import tariffs for nations who don't. The nation will also work within the WTO to eliminate NTBs on a sector by sector basis rather than seek an imposition of standards in the way that the US does.

    3. The nation will seek a free market solution to commerce and labour with a base income of £12.50/h. With that we will eliminate payroll taxes and lower corporation tax to 12.5% for small and medium business and 15% for big business. We will also eliminate all in working benefits and tax credits and out of work benefits will be made on a contributory basis with a minimum 12 months of work in the last 24 months required to qualify. Unemployment benefits will be paid for up to 12 months at a rate of 60% of previous gross income.

    4. We don't give a shit if you're gay, black, white or whatever. Everyone is welcome as long as they welcome everyone else.

    Anyone who wants to join is welcome to do so.

    So how will you deal with Islamic hate speakers?

    What is your policy on immigration?

    I think there is a need in the cities for a centre right party that isn't loathed like the Tories.
    Inciting violence is still illegal, we must deal with the world we live in, not the ideal one we want.

    Immigrants must contribute to society in pure money terms and must learn our customs and culture. If they find our way of life to be incompatible with theirs then they are free to leave.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    @MaxPB Flat fee for immigrants ? Let the market decide rather than endless gov't beuarocracy ?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    Philip_Thompson said:

    You had me until this Max:

    MaxPB said:

    3. The nation will seek a free market solution to commerce and labour with a base income of £12.50/h. With that we will eliminate payroll taxes and lower corporation tax to 12.5% for small and medium business and 15% for big business. We will also eliminate all in working benefits and tax credits and out of work benefits will be made on a contributory basis with a minimum 12 months of work in the last 24 months required to qualify. Unemployment benefits will be paid for up to 12 months at a rate of 60% of previous gross income.

    Minimum wage to increase by 75% overnight?
    Who said anything about overnight? And it's really just shifting the burden of wage subsidisation from the government to companies who just got off £60bn in NI and £10bn on corporation tax.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    MaxPB said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    You had me until this Max:

    MaxPB said:

    3. The nation will seek a free market solution to commerce and labour with a base income of £12.50/h. With that we will eliminate payroll taxes and lower corporation tax to 12.5% for small and medium business and 15% for big business. We will also eliminate all in working benefits and tax credits and out of work benefits will be made on a contributory basis with a minimum 12 months of work in the last 24 months required to qualify. Unemployment benefits will be paid for up to 12 months at a rate of 60% of previous gross income.

    Minimum wage to increase by 75% overnight?
    Who said anything about overnight? And it's really just shifting the burden of wage subsidisation from the government to companies who just got off £60bn in NI and £10bn on corporation tax.
    You think paying less tax is 'getting off' something? Doesn't sound very free market to me - more like the socialist attitude that the tax system is there to take money off people who shouldn't have it.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    Pulpstar said:

    @MaxPB Flat fee for immigrants ? Let the market decide rather than endless gov't beuarocracy ?

    Absolutely, and in a country run by the FLP migrants who do poorly paid jobs won't be able to claim £13-15k per year in tax credits and housing benefit while paying in just £2-3k in tax and NI.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/jamin2g/status/789434142899437569
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    MaxPB said:

    nunu said:

    MaxPB said:

    Curse of the new thread! FPT:

    So I've been thinking about it for a while, I think it is time to form a new political party. I'm going to call it the Free Liberal Party (FLP).

    The party stands for:

    Free speech
    Free trade
    Free market

    In order of importance.

    In practice that means:

    1. No more hate speech laws, no more safe spaces. Open discussion of any idea, however distasteful they might be.

    2. The nation will seek free trade with any party who is willing and generally have low import tariffs for nations who don't. The nation will also work within the WTO to eliminate NTBs on a sector by sector basis rather than seek an imposition of standards in the way that the US does.

    3. The nation will seek a free market solution to commerce and labour with a base income of £12.50/h. With that we will eliminate payroll taxes and lower corporation tax to 12.5% for small and medium business and 15% for big business. We will also eliminate all in working benefits and tax credits and out of work benefits will be made on a contributory basis with a minimum 12 months of work in the last 24 months required to qualify. Unemployment benefits will be paid for up to 12 months at a rate of 60% of previous gross income.

    4. We don't give a shit if you're gay, black, white or whatever. Everyone is welcome as long as they welcome everyone else.

    Anyone who wants to join is welcome to do so.

    So how will you deal with Islamic hate speakers?

    What is your policy on immigration?

    I think there is a need in the cities for a centre right party that isn't loathed like the Tories.
    Inciting violence is still illegal, we must deal with the world we live in, not the ideal one we want.

    Immigrants must contribute to society in pure money terms and must learn our customs and culture. If they find our way of life to be incompatible with theirs then they are free to leave.
    What about limits on immigration? I would be happy to join a party that doesn't do what ukip etc do which is to scapegoat the other.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    williamglenn said:

    MaxPB said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    You had me until this Max:

    MaxPB said:

    3. The nation will seek a free market solution to commerce and labour with a base income of £12.50/h. With that we will eliminate payroll taxes and lower corporation tax to 12.5% for small and medium business and 15% for big business. We will also eliminate all in working benefits and tax credits and out of work benefits will be made on a contributory basis with a minimum 12 months of work in the last 24 months required to qualify. Unemployment benefits will be paid for up to 12 months at a rate of 60% of previous gross income.

    Minimum wage to increase by 75% overnight?
    Who said anything about overnight? And it's really just shifting the burden of wage subsidisation from the government to companies who just got off £60bn in NI and £10bn on corporation tax.
    You think paying less tax is 'getting off' something? Doesn't sound very free market to me - more like the socialist attitude that the tax system is there to take money off people who shouldn't have it.
    The party must deal with the system that exists, not what is ideal. In an ideal FLP country, NI would be eliminated for both employers and employees and corporate taxes would be zero.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    MaxPB said:

    So I've been thinking about it for a while, I think it is time to form a new political party. I'm going to call it the Free Liberal Party (FLP). [snip]

    Anyone who wants to join is welcome to do so.

    What’s the party logo? – None of your namby-pamby eco bolox I hope!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    SimonStClare said:

    MaxPB said:

    So I've been thinking about it for a while, I think it is time to form a new political party. I'm going to call it the Free Liberal Party (FLP). [snip]

    Anyone who wants to join is welcome to do so.

    What’s the party logo? – None of your namby-pamby eco bolox I hope!
    I don't have illustrator at work, I'll do a mock up when I get home.

    I may also have had a few drinks at lunch!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MaxPB said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    You had me until this Max:

    MaxPB said:

    3. The nation will seek a free market solution to commerce and labour with a base income of £12.50/h. With that we will eliminate payroll taxes and lower corporation tax to 12.5% for small and medium business and 15% for big business. We will also eliminate all in working benefits and tax credits and out of work benefits will be made on a contributory basis with a minimum 12 months of work in the last 24 months required to qualify. Unemployment benefits will be paid for up to 12 months at a rate of 60% of previous gross income.

    Minimum wage to increase by 75% overnight?
    Who said anything about overnight? And it's really just shifting the burden of wage subsidisation from the government to companies who just got off £60bn in NI and £10bn on corporation tax.
    Not all corporations are the same, especially since Corporation Tax is a tax only payable on profits. A large corporation hiring well paid professionals having a dramatic cut in NI and Corporation Tax doesn't assist a struggling service company that sees a 75% increase in its wage bill.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Georginaitv: The EU's lead Brexit negotiator (Michel Barnier) wants Brits and EU to work in French rather than English during the divorce talks #Brexit

    Let me guess; this is a reason we should leave the EU...
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,457
    Pulpstar said:

    Lol I'd love to know who the UKIP -> LD switchers are xD

    Firstly, protest voters for who vote UKIP not out of any particular gripe with the EU or immigration but as a "none of the above" option. While the Lib Dems were in government, they ceased to be the natural choice of such voters, but are now an option.

    Secondly, people who are liberal on a range of issues but strongly dislike the EU (often on democratic deficit grounds).

    You seem surprised by it, and it is of course a small minority of the electorate... but it's by no means a ludicrous position and I'm not in the least surprised it shows up in this result.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    nunu said:

    MaxPB said:

    nunu said:

    MaxPB said:

    Curse of the new thread! FPT:

    So I've been thinking about it for a while, I think it is time to form a new political party. I'm going to call it the Free Liberal Party (FLP).

    The party stands for:

    Free speech
    Free trade
    Free market

    In order of importance.

    In practice that means:

    1. No more hate speech laws, no more safe spaces. Open discussion of any idea, however distasteful they might be.

    2. The nation will seek free trade with any party who is willing and generally have low import tariffs for nations who don't. The nation will also work within the WTO to eliminate NTBs on a sector by sector basis rather than seek an imposition of standards in the way that the US does.

    3. The nation will seek a free market solution to commerce and labour with a base income of £12.50/h. With that we will eliminate payroll taxes and lower corporation tax to 12.5% for small and medium business and 15% for big business. We will also eliminate all in working benefits and tax credits and out of work benefits will be made on a contributory basis with a minimum 12 months of work in the last 24 months required to qualify. Unemployment benefits will be paid for up to 12 months at a rate of 60% of previous gross income.

    4. We don't give a shit if you're gay, black, white or whatever. Everyone is welcome as long as they welcome everyone else.

    Anyone who wants to join is welcome to do so.

    So how will you deal with Islamic hate speakers?

    What is your policy on immigration?

    I think there is a need in the cities for a centre right party that isn't loathed like the Tories.
    Inciting violence is still illegal, we must deal with the world we live in, not the ideal one we want.

    Immigrants must contribute to society in pure money terms and must learn our customs and culture. If they find our way of life to be incompatible with theirs then they are free to leave.
    What about limits on immigration? I would be happy to join a party that doesn't do what ukip etc do which is to scapegoat the other.
    There is no fixed limit on migration since it is a free market economy, however without the draw of benefits and tax credits plus monetary contributions for social welfare the draw for migration will be much lower.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    Scott_P said:

    @Georginaitv: The EU's lead Brexit negotiator (Michel Barnier) wants Brits and EU to work in French rather than English during the divorce talks #Brexit

    Let me guess; this is a reason we should leave the EU...

    I agree with this. Cursing and swearing in French is brilliant. It's like wiping your arse with silk.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    UKIP haven't gone away you know.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    williamglenn said:

    MaxPB said:

    williamglenn said:

    MaxPB - Are Europhiles welcome in your new party?

    Yes, anyone is welcome. There is no set agenda on Europe, but EU membership isn't compatible with the party as it doesn't allow for point two.
    Aha... So you already have your Clause 4 and you haven't even got off the ground.

    Still good luck to you. It would be 'interesting' to see how much electoral support Hannanite utopianism gets...
    Not really a clause 4, we would be free to join the single market, just not the customs union. If membership of the EU ever allowed for variable tariffs and national trade bargaining and full WTO membership then it would be possible to join the EU.

    Also, the party sees the EU as an argument of a bygone era, anyone who is bothered enough to want to join it is free to make their case but would be better off in the Lib Dems who have given up on liberalism already.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_P said:

    @Georginaitv: The EU's lead Brexit negotiator (Michel Barnier) wants Brits and EU to work in French rather than English during the divorce talks #Brexit

    Let me guess; this is a reason we should leave the EU...

    I agree with this. Cursing and swearing in French is brilliant. It's like wiping your arse with silk.
    Boris speaks French. I bet Fox and Davis don't. Clever M. Barnier.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    The Lib Dems could do worse than target prominent Tory's implicated in Brexit who have seats in strong remain areas. Maidenhead springs to mind.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Amidst all these complaints from the EU and Remain that the UK Govt is unclear about Brexit we also have the wonderful inconsistencies of the EU Commission and its 27 other members:-
    1. The EU and Ministers of the 27 say that we cannot discuss Brexit because we are still in the EU and have not evoked Article 50.
    2. Today we learn that people in the EU Commission and EU Ministers are upset that we wish to participate in decisions of the EU such as defence, since they say we are leaving and .....

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    Philip_Thompson said:

    MaxPB said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    You had me until this Max:

    MaxPB said:

    3. The nation will seek a free market solution to commerce and labour with a base income of £12.50/h. With that we will eliminate payroll taxes and lower corporation tax to 12.5% for small and medium business and 15% for big business. We will also eliminate all in working benefits and tax credits and out of work benefits will be made on a contributory basis with a minimum 12 months of work in the last 24 months required to qualify. Unemployment benefits will be paid for up to 12 months at a rate of 60% of previous gross income.

    Minimum wage to increase by 75% overnight?
    Who said anything about overnight? And it's really just shifting the burden of wage subsidisation from the government to companies who just got off £60bn in NI and £10bn on corporation tax.
    Not all corporations are the same, especially since Corporation Tax is a tax only payable on profits. A large corporation hiring well paid professionals having a dramatic cut in NI and Corporation Tax doesn't assist a struggling service company that sees a 75% increase in its wage bill.
    And they will have to adjust their business models.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_P said:

    @Georginaitv: The EU's lead Brexit negotiator (Michel Barnier) wants Brits and EU to work in French rather than English during the divorce talks #Brexit

    Let me guess; this is a reason we should leave the EU...

    I agree with this. Cursing and swearing in French is brilliant. It's like wiping your arse with silk.
    How very Merovingian of you. – BTW, do you now have a crush on Brian Blessed..?
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,579
    One thought on the decent LD performance in Witney and how they are using the Brexit vote in campaigning. For most of us the Lib Dem position is very stark - we know the comments made by Tim Farron and others about seeking a future in the EU and a 2nd referendum, presumably with a "this deal is so bad let's stay after all" option. We also know quite how impractical a rejoining campaign would be once we've left, Euro, Schengen etc, which the Lib Dems haven't admitted publically (but I'd expect the membership to veto any attempt to go there if the leadership tried.)

    But in campaigning, the message I saw in some of the leaflets was a lot cannier - "Are you worried about Hard Brexit? So are we." Actually using the uncertainty, lack of confidence among those charged with negotiating, and speaking to remainers, softer leavers, and determined leavers who've thought through what's involved. Smart messaging I thought - and I'd expect to see it used more widely.

  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Scott_P said:

    @Georginaitv: The EU's lead Brexit negotiator (Michel Barnier) wants Brits and EU to work in French rather than English during the divorce talks #Brexit

    Let me guess; this is a reason we should leave the EU...


    Have they run out of translators?

  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Scott_P said:

    @Georginaitv: The EU's lead Brexit negotiator (Michel Barnier) wants Brits and EU to work in French rather than English during the divorce talks #Brexit

    Let me guess; this is a reason we should leave the EU...

    Dunno about the last point but the man is clearly a fool to make such an absurd suggestion.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,769
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Amidst all these complaints from the EU and Remain that the UK Govt is unclear about Brexit we also have the wonderful inconsistencies of the EU Commission and its 27 other members:-
    1. The EU and Ministers of the 27 say that we cannot discuss Brexit because we are still in the EU and have not evoked Article 50.
    2. Today we learn that people in the EU Commission and EU Ministers are upset that we wish to participate in decisions of the EU such as defence, since they say we are leaving and .....

    The answer to the riddle is that they think the British should stop being a bunch of faff-arses and invoke Article 50 so everybody can get on with the negotiations.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    MaxPB said:

    nunu said:

    MaxPB said:

    Curse of the new thread! FPT:

    So I've been thinking about it for a while, I think it is time to form a new political party. I'm going to call it the Free Liberal Party (FLP).

    The party stands for:

    Free speech
    Free trade
    Free market

    In order of importance.

    In practice that means:

    1. No more hate speech laws, no more safe spaces. Open discussion of any idea, however distasteful they might be.

    2. The nation will seek free trade with any party who is willing and generally have low import tariffs for nations who don't. The nation will also work within the WTO to eliminate NTBs on a sector by sector basis rather than seek an imposition of standards in the way that the US does.

    3. The nation will seek a free market solution to commerce and labour with a base income of £12.50/h. With that we will eliminate payroll taxes and lower corporation tax to 12.5% for small and medium business and 15% for big business. We will also eliminate all in working benefits and tax credits and out of work benefits will be made on a contributory basis with a minimum 12 months of work in the last 24 months required to qualify. Unemployment benefits will be paid for up to 12 months at a rate of 60% of previous gross income.

    4. We don't give a shit if you're gay, black, white or whatever. Everyone is welcome as long as they welcome everyone else.

    Anyone who wants to join is welcome to do so.

    So how will you deal with Islamic hate speakers?

    What is your policy on immigration?

    I think there is a need in the cities for a centre right party that isn't loathed like the Tories.
    Inciting violence is still illegal, we must deal with the world we live in, not the ideal one we want.

    Immigrants must contribute to society in pure money terms and must learn our customs and culture. If they find our way of life to be incompatible with theirs then they are free to leave.
    The trouble is that a significant minority want to change our society in favour of theirs.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,830
    CarlottaVance said:

    Con & Lab not gaining much different from 'Fair Share' of the UKIP Vote - why do the LIb Dems do disproportionately well (about double)? - the 'None of the above' party?

    As I suggested earlier, when someone suggested there was no overlap between the two parties. From years of door knocking I know that there is; the EU remains a peripheral issue for many people.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    'Have they run out of translators?''

    It turns out the commission discovered they weren't translators - they were actually refugee children in desperate need

    The two are confused all the time, apparently
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    UKIP haven't gone away you know.

    They're beyond use though...
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    Recidivist said:

    The Lib Dems could do worse than target prominent Tory's implicated in Brexit who have seats in strong remain areas. Maidenhead springs to mind.

    So does Wokingham. Mr. Redwood's constituents voted against him. There should be many more in Oxford, Bucks., Berks. and Surrey.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    As English, French and German have the higher status of "working languages" within the EU, someone should tell Michel Barnier it’s English or German, but not French.

    Plenty of UK German speakers based around Windsor I believe…!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    SimonStClare said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_P said:

    @Georginaitv: The EU's lead Brexit negotiator (Michel Barnier) wants Brits and EU to work in French rather than English during the divorce talks #Brexit

    Let me guess; this is a reason we should leave the EU...

    I agree with this. Cursing and swearing in French is brilliant. It's like wiping your arse with silk.
    How very Merovingian of you. – BTW, do you now have a crush on Brian Blessed..?
    I've always liked Brian Blessed.

    He and I have a lot in common. We are both understated, subtle Yorkshireman.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,830
    Recidivist said:

    The Lib Dems could do worse than target prominent Tory's implicated in Brexit who have seats in strong remain areas. Maidenhead springs to mind.

    Both Labour and the LibDems in times past have tried 'decapitation strategies' against the Tories, and the evidence suggests that making such obvious is counter-productive. Labour also tried and failed last time against Clegg. Those big hitters like fall, such as Portillo or Balls, tend to be lucky accidents.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    Patrick said:

    MaxPB said:

    Curse of the new thread! FPT:

    So I've been thinking about it for a while, I think it is time to form a new political party. I'm going to call it the Free Liberal Party (FLP).

    The party stands for:

    Free speech
    Free trade
    Free market

    In order of importance.

    In practice that means:

    1. No more hate speech laws, no more safe spaces. Open discussion of any idea, however distasteful they might be.

    2. The nation will seek free trade with any party who is willing and generally have low import tariffs for nations who don't. The nation will also work within the WTO to eliminate NTBs on a sector by sector basis rather than seek an imposition of standards in the way that the US does.

    3. The nation will seek a free market solution to commerce and labour with a base income of £12.50/h. With that we will eliminate payroll taxes and lower corporation tax to 12.5% for small and medium business and 15% for big business. We will also eliminate all in working benefits and tax credits and out of work benefits will be made on a contributory basis with a minimum 12 months of work in the last 24 months required to qualify. Unemployment benefits will be paid for up to 12 months at a rate of 60% of previous gross income.

    4. We don't give a shit if you're gay, black, white or whatever. Everyone is welcome as long as they welcome everyone else.

    Anyone who wants to join is welcome to do so.

    Sounds alot like the Patrick Party
    Think of it as a hostile takeover.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MaxPB said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    MaxPB said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    You had me until this Max:

    MaxPB said:

    3. The nation will seek a free market solution to commerce and labour with a base income of £12.50/h. With that we will eliminate payroll taxes and lower corporation tax to 12.5% for small and medium business and 15% for big business. We will also eliminate all in working benefits and tax credits and out of work benefits will be made on a contributory basis with a minimum 12 months of work in the last 24 months required to qualify. Unemployment benefits will be paid for up to 12 months at a rate of 60% of previous gross income.

    Minimum wage to increase by 75% overnight?
    Who said anything about overnight? And it's really just shifting the burden of wage subsidisation from the government to companies who just got off £60bn in NI and £10bn on corporation tax.
    Not all corporations are the same, especially since Corporation Tax is a tax only payable on profits. A large corporation hiring well paid professionals having a dramatic cut in NI and Corporation Tax doesn't assist a struggling service company that sees a 75% increase in its wage bill.
    And they will have to adjust their business models.
    Lovely, so people who've invested their life savings to create a business that your party would change dramatically just have to suck it up?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PolhomeEditor: Theresa May admits for the first time she was aware of "tensions" between historical abuse inquiry panel and Dame Lowell Goddard.

    Achilles heel?
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,872
    edited October 2016
    MaxPB said:

    nunu said:

    MaxPB said:

    nunu said:

    MaxPB said:

    Curse of the new thread! FPT:

    So I've been thinking about it for a while, I think it is time to form a new political party. I'm going to call it the Free Liberal Party (FLP).

    The party stands for:

    Free speech
    Free trade
    Free market

    In order of importance.

    In practice that means:

    1. No more hate speech laws, no more safe spaces. Open discussion of any idea, however distasteful they might be.

    2. The nation will seek free trade with any party who is willing and generally have low import tariffs for nations who don't. The nation will also work within the WTO to eliminate NTBs on a sector by sector basis rather than seek an imposition of standards in the way that the US does.

    3. The nation will seek a free market solution to commerce and labour with a base income of £12.50/h. With that we will eliminate payroll taxes and lower corporation tax to 12.5% for small and medium business and 15% for big business. We will also eliminate all in working benefits and tax credits and out of work benefits will be made on a contributory basis with a minimum 12 months of work in the last 24 months required to qualify. Unemployment benefits will be paid for up to 12 months at a rate of 60% of previous gross income.

    4. We don't give a shit if you're gay, black, white or whatever. Everyone is welcome as long as they welcome everyone else.

    Anyone who wants to join is welcome to do so.

    So how will you deal with Islamic hate speakers?

    What is your policy on immigration?

    I think there is a need in the cities for a centre right party that isn't loathed like the Tories.
    Inciting violence is still illegal, we must deal with the world we live in, not the ideal one we want.

    Immigrants must contribute to society in pure money terms and must learn our customs and culture. If they find our way of life to be incompatible with theirs then they are free to leave.
    What about limits on immigration? I would be happy to join a party that doesn't do what ukip etc do which is to scapegoat the other.
    There is no fixed limit on migration since it is a free market economy, however without the draw of benefits and tax credits plus monetary contributions for social welfare the draw for migration will be much lower.
    The high level of unemployment resulting from the high minimum wage and lack of tax credits will certainly help to reduce migration. As will rocketing crime levels, as desperate people with no welfare support and no way of earning a living are forced to steal to survive.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,830
    Ishmael_X said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_P said:

    @Georginaitv: The EU's lead Brexit negotiator (Michel Barnier) wants Brits and EU to work in French rather than English during the divorce talks #Brexit

    Let me guess; this is a reason we should leave the EU...

    I agree with this. Cursing and swearing in French is brilliant. It's like wiping your arse with silk.
    Boris speaks French. I bet Fox and Davis don't. Clever M. Barnier.
    Indeed. Boris can tell Fox and Davis it's hard Brexit and they can find out about the budget contributions and signup to all the regulations from the Daily Telegraph the day after.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    MaxPB said:

    Patrick said:

    MaxPB said:

    Curse of the new thread! FPT:

    So I've been thinking about it for a while, I think it is time to form a new political party. I'm going to call it the Free Liberal Party (FLP).

    The party stands for:

    Free speech
    Free trade
    Free market

    In order of importance.

    In practice that means:

    1. No more hate speech laws, no more safe spaces. Open discussion of any idea, however distasteful they might be.

    2. The nation will seek free trade with any party who is willing and generally have low import tariffs for nations who don't. The nation will also work within the WTO to eliminate NTBs on a sector by sector basis rather than seek an imposition of standards in the way that the US does.

    3. The nation will seek a free market solution to commerce and labour with a base income of £12.50/h. With that we will eliminate payroll taxes and lower corporation tax to 12.5% for small and medium business and 15% for big business. We will also eliminate all in working benefits and tax credits and out of work benefits will be made on a contributory basis with a minimum 12 months of work in the last 24 months required to qualify. Unemployment benefits will be paid for up to 12 months at a rate of 60% of previous gross income.

    4. We don't give a shit if you're gay, black, white or whatever. Everyone is welcome as long as they welcome everyone else.

    Anyone who wants to join is welcome to do so.

    Sounds alot like the Patrick Party
    Think of it as a hostile takeover.
    Not splitters but raiders. :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    Moscow Flyer has died.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    Philip_Thompson said:

    MaxPB said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    MaxPB said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    You had me until this Max:

    MaxPB said:

    3. The nation will seek a free market solution to commerce and labour with a base income of £12.50/h. With that we will eliminate payroll taxes and lower corporation tax to 12.5% for small and medium business and 15% for big business. We will also eliminate all in working benefits and tax credits and out of work benefits will be made on a contributory basis with a minimum 12 months of work in the last 24 months required to qualify. Unemployment benefits will be paid for up to 12 months at a rate of 60% of previous gross income.

    Minimum wage to increase by 75% overnight?
    Who said anything about overnight? And it's really just shifting the burden of wage subsidisation from the government to companies who just got off £60bn in NI and £10bn on corporation tax.
    Not all corporations are the same, especially since Corporation Tax is a tax only payable on profits. A large corporation hiring well paid professionals having a dramatic cut in NI and Corporation Tax doesn't assist a struggling service company that sees a 75% increase in its wage bill.
    And they will have to adjust their business models.
    Lovely, so people who've invested their life savings to create a business that your party would change dramatically just have to suck it up?
    Over 5 years. Increasing prices, lowering wages at the top, and temporary reduction in profitability plus increases in productivity.
  • NorvilleRogersIIINorvilleRogersIII Posts: 39
    How many of the missing 10% would vote BNP?
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,457
    IanB2 said:


    Both Labour and the LibDems in times past have tried 'decapitation strategies' against the Tories, and the evidence suggests that making such obvious is counter-productive. Labour also tried and failed last time against Clegg. Those big hitters like fall, such as Portillo or Balls, tend to be lucky accidents.

    Balls was very much targeted by the Conservatives in 2015 (as well as 2010), as was Portillo by Labour in 1997. The above average swings reflect that.

    I do actually agree that decapitation strategies are a mistake in terms of best use of resources - you just go for the seats you're best able to win rather than making some kind of point of it. But there's no doubt all parties see it as a bonus to get a big name, and tend to put some extra effort into doing so.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,234
    edited October 2016
    Scott_P said:

    @PolhomeEditor: Theresa May admits for the first time she was aware of "tensions" between historical abuse inquiry panel and Dame Lowell Goddard.

    Achilles heel?

    She explained her position at PMQ's and re-iterated it this afternoon. Cannot see this as a problem
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    IanB2 said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_P said:

    @Georginaitv: The EU's lead Brexit negotiator (Michel Barnier) wants Brits and EU to work in French rather than English during the divorce talks #Brexit

    Let me guess; this is a reason we should leave the EU...

    I agree with this. Cursing and swearing in French is brilliant. It's like wiping your arse with silk.
    Boris speaks French. I bet Fox and Davis don't. Clever M. Barnier.
    Indeed. Boris can tell Fox and Davis it's hard Brexit and they can find out about the budget contributions and signup to all the regulations from the Daily Telegraph the day after.
    They can be fobbed off with the phrase "It's Brexit, durr..."
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Scott_P said:

    @PolhomeEditor: Theresa May admits for the first time she was aware of "tensions" between historical abuse inquiry panel and Dame Lowell Goddard.

    Achilles heel?

    She said a couple of days ago "there was rumour but I don't act on rumours" or something like that.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    edited October 2016
    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    The high level of unemployment resulting from the high minimum wage and lack of tax credits will certainly help to reduce migration. As will the rocketing crime wave, as desperate people with no welfare support and no way of earning a living are forced to steal to survive.

    No way of earning a living? The minimum wage is a real living wage and the economic boost from paying people more has always worked out with more jobs being created than being lost. You sound like the Tories and big business in 1997.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,176
    An expert writes:

    'Xenophobia Britannica? Anti-immigrant attitudes in the UK are among the strongest in Europe'

    http://tinyurl.com/gtkhl5f

    I'm gonna predict 'Xenophobia Britannica' goes on the trigger word/phrase list.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    IanB2 said:


    Both Labour and the LibDems in times past have tried 'decapitation strategies' against the Tories, and the evidence suggests that making such obvious is counter-productive. Labour also tried and failed last time against Clegg. Those big hitters like fall, such as Portillo or Balls, tend to be lucky accidents.

    Balls was very much targeted by the Conservatives in 2015 (as well as 2010), as was Portillo by Labour in 1997. The above average swings reflect that.

    I do actually agree that decapitation strategies are a mistake in terms of best use of resources - you just go for the seats you're best able to win rather than making some kind of point of it. But there's no doubt all parties see it as a bonus to get a big name, and tend to put some extra effort into doing so.
    One of the most effective examples was probably Shirley Williams in 1979 given its indirect role in the subsequent SDP split.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    MarkHopkins said:

    Scott_P said:

    @Georginaitv: The EU's lead Brexit negotiator (Michel Barnier) wants Brits and EU to work in French rather than English during the divorce talks #Brexit

    Let me guess; this is a reason we should leave the EU...


    Have they run out of translators?

    French has been dying off fairly quickly in the EU. In the last 10 years - post 2004 and 2007 enlargements - it has gone from an occupational requirement in Brussels to a non-essential.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Philip Rucker and Robert Costa of the "Washington Post" report on GOP gloom that an impending Trump defeat will have significant down ballot implications :

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/gop-braces-for-trump-loss-roiled-by-refusal-to-accept-election-results/2016/10/20/6e1de6aa-96dc-11e6-9b7c-57290af48a49_story.html
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,176
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Scott_P said:

    @PolhomeEditor: Theresa May admits for the first time she was aware of "tensions" between historical abuse inquiry panel and Dame Lowell Goddard.

    Achilles heel?

    She explained her position at PMQ's and re-iterated it this afternoon. Cannot see this as a problem
    You do surprise me.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    IanB2 said:


    Both Labour and the LibDems in times past have tried 'decapitation strategies' against the Tories, and the evidence suggests that making such obvious is counter-productive. Labour also tried and failed last time against Clegg. Those big hitters like fall, such as Portillo or Balls, tend to be lucky accidents.

    Balls was very much targeted by the Conservatives in 2015 (as well as 2010), as was Portillo by Labour in 1997. The above average swings reflect that.

    I do actually agree that decapitation strategies are a mistake in terms of best use of resources - you just go for the seats you're best able to win rather than making some kind of point of it. But there's no doubt all parties see it as a bonus to get a big name, and tend to put some extra effort into doing so.
    Well the story at the time was that Labour diverted a lot of resources to get Clegg which left them unable to defend other marginals in the North. Balls looks to have lost out because of that.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    NorvilleRogersIII said:

    How many of the missing 10% would vote BNP?

    Given the BNP only fielded 8 candidates at the last election, not very many.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    Has Putin completed F-Rus ENG A MAO yet ?
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,457
    williamglenn said:


    One of the most effective examples was probably Shirley Williams in 1979 given its indirect role in the subsequent SDP split.

    Why? Do you think she'd not have been part of the split had she remained MP for Stevenage? Interested to know your reasoning.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,872
    MaxPB said:

    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    The high level of unemployment resulting from the high minimum wage and lack of tax credits will certainly help to reduce migration. As will the rocketing crime wave, as desperate people with no welfare support and no way of earning a living are forced to steal to survive.

    No way of earning a living? The minimum wage is a real living wage and the economic boost from paying people more has always worked out with more jobs being created than being lost. You sound like the Tories and big business in 1997.
    You're not taking into account the sad truth that a significant number of people are simply not capable of performing work that any company would value at £12.50/h.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Summary of yesterdays 12 council by elections

    Conservatives defended 7 seats held 4 lost 3 East Riding St Marys to Lib Dems Witham North to Labour and Heacham West Norfolk to Ind but gained Rothwell Kettering from Labour and Medway Strood South from UKIP
    Labour defended 4 seats held 1 lost 3 Rothwell Kettering to Con Neath P T Blaingwarh to Plaid and Conway Abergele Pensarth to Ind But gained Witham North from Con
    Lib Dems defended 1 seat which they held and gained East Riding St Marys from Con
    UKIP defended 1 seat which they lost to Con
    Plaid gained 1 seat from Lab
    Inds gained 2 seats 1 from Lab 1 from Con
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,086
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    UKIP haven't gone away you know.

    Quite a lot of their voters have.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,086
    logical_song said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    UKIP haven't gone away you know.

    Quite a lot of their voters have.
    ... and quite a lot of their potential leaders have.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    williamglenn said:


    One of the most effective examples was probably Shirley Williams in 1979 given its indirect role in the subsequent SDP split.

    Why? Do you think she'd not have been part of the split had she remained MP for Stevenage? Interested to know your reasoning.
    I don't have any reasoning really, just a supposition that had she remained an MP the Labour moderates would have been x% less demoralised and the split would have had a slightly smaller chance of happening.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    How about an immigrant tax ? Arrivals say pay 5 or 10 p more in the pound for the first 10 years.

    Would help lower tensions , raise money and focus minds. Any caught working in black economy jailed then deported.

    Free movement would be back on the table then as public opinion would swing back if the rate was high enough for long enough.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MaxPB said:

    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    The high level of unemployment resulting from the high minimum wage and lack of tax credits will certainly help to reduce migration. As will the rocketing crime wave, as desperate people with no welfare support and no way of earning a living are forced to steal to survive.

    No way of earning a living? The minimum wage is a real living wage and the economic boost from paying people more has always worked out with more jobs being created than being lost. You sound like the Tories and big business in 1997.
    Look across Europe at the sky high unemployment rates. That's what increasing wages by 75% would do.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    edited October 2016
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Scott_P said:

    @PolhomeEditor: Theresa May admits for the first time she was aware of "tensions" between historical abuse inquiry panel and Dame Lowell Goddard.

    Achilles heel?

    She said a couple of days ago "there was rumour but I don't act on rumours" or something like that.
    Ironically this was the problem with the original child abuse itself. There were rumours of abuse and plenty of people had heard stories but no one in power wanted to investigate or find out the truth.

    May's tin ear strikes again.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    Philip_Thompson said:

    MaxPB said:

    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    The high level of unemployment resulting from the high minimum wage and lack of tax credits will certainly help to reduce migration. As will the rocketing crime wave, as desperate people with no welfare support and no way of earning a living are forced to steal to survive.

    No way of earning a living? The minimum wage is a real living wage and the economic boost from paying people more has always worked out with more jobs being created than being lost. You sound like the Tories and big business in 1997.
    Look across Europe at the sky high unemployment rates. That's what increasing wages by 75% would do.
    Max can't please everyone ;)

    I'm interested in his logo !
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    edited October 2016
    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    MaxPB said:

    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    The high level of unemployment resulting from the high minimum wage and lack of tax credits will certainly help to reduce migration. As will the rocketing crime wave, as desperate people with no welfare support and no way of earning a living are forced to steal to survive.

    No way of earning a living? The minimum wage is a real living wage and the economic boost from paying people more has always worked out with more jobs being created than being lost. You sound like the Tories and big business in 1997.
    You're not taking into account the sad truth that a significant number of people are simply not capable of performing work that any company would value at £12.50/h.
    I think everyone is capable of that, they just need the right motivation, dedication and training to achieve it. In all honesty it's not a massive jump. If you add employers NI to the current NLW that's already £8.20/h, the NLW would have to rise by 8-9% per year to meet the five year target. A lot of the additonal cost of employment can be reclaimed through higher prices and wage reductions at the top.

    Anyway, I know it's possible since even the lowest worker in Switzerland receives wages of at least 18Fr/h which is higher than £12.50 even with a more favourable exchange rate.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,457
    williamglenn said:


    I don't have any reasoning really, just a supposition that had she remained an MP the Labour moderates would have been x% less demoralised and the split would have had a slightly smaller chance of happening.

    My personal view is that it would have made no difference. The one possibility is that Denis Healey might have been better placed to talk her into staying and fighting. But I doubt it and, even if he did, doubt it would've stopped others splitting.

    Indeed, Stevenage wasn't exactly hard left heartland and her best chance of retaining her seat in 1983 (had she survived in 1979) would have been as an SDP candidate. Indeed, ironically the SDP candidate in that seat did a little better than Williams in Crosby in the 1983 election - both lost fairly narrowly.

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited October 2016
    JackW said:

    Philip Rucker and Robert Costa of the "Washington Post" report on GOP gloom that an impending Trump defeat will have significant down ballot implications :

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/gop-braces-for-trump-loss-roiled-by-refusal-to-accept-election-results/2016/10/20/6e1de6aa-96dc-11e6-9b7c-57290af48a49_story.html

    That article doesn;t quote a single republican apart from one arch Trump critic who worked for Romney and McCain.

    They were nice guys, credible candidates, they played by the rules. Guess what, they still got beat.

    As did George Bush when he sent that endearing note you quoted. Bill must has p8ssed himself laughing, as he sized up the interns in the Oval office.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    MaxPB said:

    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    MaxPB said:

    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    The high level of unemployment resulting from the high minimum wage and lack of tax credits will certainly help to reduce migration. As will the rocketing crime wave, as desperate people with no welfare support and no way of earning a living are forced to steal to survive.

    No way of earning a living? The minimum wage is a real living wage and the economic boost from paying people more has always worked out with more jobs being created than being lost. You sound like the Tories and big business in 1997.
    You're not taking into account the sad truth that a significant number of people are simply not capable of performing work that any company would value at £12.50/h.
    I think everyone is capable of that, they just need the right motivation, dedication and training to achieve it. In all honesty it's not a massive jump. If you add employers NI to the current NLW that's already £8.20/h, the NLW would have to rise by 8-9% per year to meet the five year target. A lot of the additonal cost of employment can be reclaimed through higher prices and wage reductions at the top.

    Anyway, I know it's possible since even the lowest worker in Switzerland receives wages of at least 18Fr/h which is higher than £12.50 even with a more favourable exchange rate.
    Regardless of whether it's possible, I think it's approaching the problem from the wrong side. Ratcheting up wages does nothing to help the cost of living if the difference will be sucked up by housing costs and consumer debt. We need a party that sees reducing the fixed costs of the average family as a paramount goal of economic policy.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,885
    If you pick up UKIP and look at the base, it says "BEST BEFORE 2017"....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    williamglenn said:

    MaxPB said:

    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    MaxPB said:

    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    The high level of unemployment resulting from the high minimum wage and lack of tax credits will certainly help to reduce migration. As will the rocketing crime wave, as desperate people with no welfare support and no way of earning a living are forced to steal to survive.

    No way of earning a living? The minimum wage is a real living wage and the economic boost from paying people more has always worked out with more jobs being created than being lost. You sound like the Tories and big business in 1997.
    You're not taking into account the sad truth that a significant number of people are simply not capable of performing work that any company would value at £12.50/h.
    I think everyone is capable of that, they just need the right motivation, dedication and training to achieve it. In all honesty it's not a massive jump. If you add employers NI to the current NLW that's already £8.20/h, the NLW would have to rise by 8-9% per year to meet the five year target. A lot of the additonal cost of employment can be reclaimed through higher prices and wage reductions at the top.

    Anyway, I know it's possible since even the lowest worker in Switzerland receives wages of at least 18Fr/h which is higher than £12.50 even with a more favourable exchange rate.
    Regardless of whether it's possible, I think it's approaching the problem from the wrong side. Ratcheting up wages does nothing to help the cost of living if the difference will be sucked up by housing costs and consumer debt. We need a party that sees reducing the fixed costs of the average family as a paramount goal of economic policy.
    Max hasn't announced his housing policy yet. Liberalising the planning laws (Le sigh I guess some green belt should go much as I hate to admit it) will be on his agenda as well as large scale building schemes yielding 5 odd % for the discerning investor. BTL Landlords should probably look away now though ;)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,613
    williamglenn said:

    FPT

    Sean_F said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Jobabob said:

    The Brexiteers' quintuple whammy.

    Greater borrowing.
    More unemployment.
    Weakened pound.
    Reduced investment.
    Rising prices.

    Borrowing below what Labour bequeathed and will do still.
    Employment rate at a record high.
    Weakened pound.
    Increased investment.or a
    Inflation well below target.
    I'm old enough to remember a time when governments would have been delighted by 2.5% growth, 1% inflation, and 5% unemployment. In fact, had you suggested to politicians that such an outcome was possible, they'd have laughed you to scorn.
    Will people like you please make up your minds whether this is a period of uncommon prosperity for the country or a stagnant dystopia where ordinary people are engaged in a Sisyphean struggle to keep their heads above water while being pushed down by an unaccountable elite bureaucracy?
    You really think that was worth carrying over?
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