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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Hillary Clinton is winning this elections because it has become a referendum on Donald Trump
I’ve just got back from Brussels where Matthew Shaddick (the famous Shadsy of Ladbrokes) and I gave presentations about betting on politics which is almost certainly more advanced in the UK than anywhere else in the world.
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third, like donald in utah
I did not watch the third debate but the snippets I have seen show Hilary with Donald on toast. Her comments about every defeat for Trump being a fix were pretty brutal. Her comments on her "bringing Bin Laden to justice" (aka assassination) when he was conducting celebrity apprentice were cutting. From these snippets, which may not show the whole story, she has his measure and outclasses him as a debater.
Are we on course for a landslide of Reagan v Mondale proportions?
"Trump refusing to accept US election result would be a bit like some UK Remain MPs and lawyers trying to subvert referendum result"
http://blog.dilbert.com/post/152067706781/i-score-the-third-debate
Yep, he really wants to win this election.
His cartoons are funny.
Was disappointed with the lack of handshaking again last night.
The last Ohio poll was 45/45. And yet look at the number for 'country's on the wrong track'
60-odd/ 30-odd for the 'wrong track'
Now, in what world to people who want to change the direction of the country vote for Hillary Clinton? she is the continuity candidate to end all continuity candidates. She is Mrs 'as you were'
Just sayin'
So he wasn't an interpreter after all... I'm shocked.
I forecast trump will win! I think that's clear
The more MPs that have demonstrated a commitment to following the will of the people, the less likely there is to be backsliding later.
There seems to be this idea that standing up against the legal challenge somehow increases the chance of Brexit, and prevents MPs stopping it. In fact, it does the opposite. Because an MP who hasn't voted for it, will find it much easier to walk away from Article 50 in 2018 if the UK is in a nasty recession.
I absolutely accept all your points. But I would argue this election is unlike any other because Americans aren;t really voting for a president - they are voting for a wrecking ball. Anyway, I'm going to get off this topic before I get into any more trouble.
Just sayin
The arrogance of the 27 who think they can exclude us while we are still full members and paying in have come up against a UK leader who will not be a walk over. Well done Theresa
He's the brilliant ad libber.
But her team has spent hours thinking about how to needle Trump and make him lose his cool. And they manage it every time. And he says something stupid. And then it's all about Trump's unsuitability for the Presidency.
Hillary learnt from her debate difficulties. Donald Trump took nothing from his successes.
People are scared to vote for Donald, even though they want a change, because the Clinton machine has been utterly brilliant, and utterly ruthless.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/on-media/2016/10/preliminary-final-debate-ratings-69-million-230102
The Russians are building a bridge to Crimea
https://www.newcivilengineer.com/world-view/bridge-brilliance-connecting-crimea/10008842.article
Key talking point today in the town is the sheer scale of the Lib Dem effort. They are all over the place in Witney itself and very visible. They had 250 volunteers one day over the weekend
Having been on the receiving end of the literature blizzard, I do feel that tactic's time may be over. We are the cusp between when paper communication dominated and before electronic completely takes over. No real appropriate equivalent electronically. Paper reaches the older voters (who vote) but doesn't reach younger voters (who don't)
Expecting a UKIP collapse - the 50/1 to come second now looks short odds
We need to get as many people committed to Brexit as possible. We need as many people as possible to walk through the lobby and affirm the will of the people. An MP that voted on the Article 50 Enabling Bill will find it much harder to change his mind later. One who hasn't will find it much easier to flex.
Not only that, but an Article 50 Enabling Bill passed 550 to 100 makes it clear to the EU how committed the political class in the UK is.
Mrs May is fighting an unecessary battle that endangers Brexit, and makes the possibility of a successful negotiation less likely.
Green effort has been greater than normal but still tiny.
Also, remember that even LibDems such as Vince Cable and Paddy Ashdown have said the vote must be respected.
The Brexit vote is meaningless to the EU.
Remember they said nothing should happen until after A50 is enacted.
So why are they doing anything different?
If Trump, against all the odds does win, there will be almighty crash in the dollar and Wall Street so her unusually long odds could be caused by hedging by some very wealthy investors. Could be a betting opportunity.
I'm very long on Clinton - as long as I can afford to lose.
"Great" is not one of them.
LDs have been advertising on Facebook - I've had a few promoted items appear in my feed. Mostly leaflets though, yes.
Labour will do respectably in Witney town and Chipping Norton but bomb elsewhere. I'm expecting 1 Con, 2 LD, 3 Lab, toss-up between Green and UKIP for 4th. It wouldn't astonish me if UKIP dropped to 5th.
The last thing she wants now is any hint of Remain.
It's grim up North London
The Lords would not delay an Article 50 Bill; nor would the Commons. She would either have a fabulous mandate, or a large majority.
Instead, she's made a point of principle out of something she'd win by a mile anyway.
Not only does it make it clear how weak she is, but it also endangers Brexit. Dumb. Dumb. Dumb.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-probably-finished-off-trump-last-night/
Brexit is just an inconvenient reality created by Cameron's failed gambit, not a vital national interest to be protected at all costs.
I disagree. The Commons could probably be won, but it ties up the whole thing in pointless delay. The Lords would seek to delay or stop the A50 bill - just like all the other times they have been activist over things they disagree with.
A50 has to be invoked early next year. Parliament can then discuss what they want after that.
The Lords would not be able to block it post GE, as it would have been in the manifesto.
Labour MPs in Leave constituencies would have to vote in favour, or risk being unseated at the subsequent GE by UKIP.
There is no delay. There is only the added strength of a 550-100 victory.