On the other hand, we in England in the Seventeenth Century had a civil war and Glorious Revolution that established Parliament as sovereign and declared:
No foreign prince, person, prelate, state, or potentate hath, or ought to have, any jurisdiction, power, superiority, pre-eminence, or authority, ecclesiastical or spiritual, within this realm.
It's difficult to defend the 1688 invasion as "no foreign prince" when it involved an successful invasion of England, the removal of a born-and-bred English King (James II) and the installation of a European Prince of a European Principality (William III) on the English throne
The triumph of the Protestant Ascendancy and smashing of Popery is certainly something my ancestors cheered in 1689.
I note the things you state economically, but they are still trying to sort out a single currency that is causing economic ruin in the south which makes them vulnerable, especially with Uncle Vlad on manouvers and filling East Prussia with missiles.
Why do you insist on misusing historical terms like East Prussia? It's non congruous with Kaliningrad you know.
Because it f***ing well is East Prussia with Kaliningrad the capital being a renamed Konigsberg, the ancient Prussian capital. The western bit of it being lopped off into Poland in 1945 is irrelevant.
And the historical parallel is quite creepy. Russia now separated from East Prussia by Poland etc. since 1990 and rather sore about those territorial losses just as Germany was after Versailles.
On the other hand, we in England in the Seventeenth Century had a civil war and Glorious Revolution that established Parliament as sovereign and declared:
No foreign prince, person, prelate, state, or potentate hath, or ought to have, any jurisdiction, power, superiority, pre-eminence, or authority, ecclesiastical or spiritual, within this realm.
Followed by unheard of growth and prosperity.
This year the voters gloriously upheld this principle.
The period was rather less pleasant for the Chinese, the Turks, the French, the Spanish, the Germans, etc. etc.
But, yes, Britain left the Seventeenth Century a constitutional monarchy. Other countries were less lucky. Rolling the revolution dice sometime results in a six. And sometimes you end with the Hundred Years War, and sometimes with Louis XIV.
We got it right then and I have every confidence we will get it right now.
No you don't have every confidence. You think hard Brexit is a bluff.
Its an option, not the preferred option but a perfectly viable option if the EU behave like arseholes - which they cant afford to.
I struggle with your views here. The leaders of the EU must act in their own best interests, yes? That won't necessarily match our best interests. It's also pretty much indisputable that they would suffer less than us in the near term: private sector debt is massively lower across the EU, government deficits are less, and almost every country runs a current account surplus against our current account deficit. The EU (and specifically the Eurozone) is at a cyclical low. We're at a cyclical high. That means we're likely to underperform the EU and the Eurozone for a while.
We have a really nasty transition ahead. We need to close a current account deficit of 7% of GDP (which is almost as high as Spain was ahead of the Eurozone crisis). And we're doing it with a higher level of government and private sector debt. Our economy has been based around borrowing to spend on imported tat. That's not sustainable.
And this is the true threat to Brexit: a nasty recession causing the fall of the government, leading to the election of a pro-EU party.
Can you remind us again why you voted Leave given you seem most eloquent on the utter lack of economic upside and the parlous situation we now face?
Politics matter far more than economics. We were part of a movement towards a single European State. Now we're not.
I struggle with your views here. The leaders of the EU must act in their own best interests, yes? That won't necessarily match our best interests. It's also pretty much indisputable that they would suffer less than us in the near term: private sector debt is massively lower across the EU, government deficits are less, and almost every country runs a current account surplus against our current account deficit. The EU (and specifically the Eurozone) is at a cyclical low. We're at a cyclical high. That means we're likely to underperform the EU and the Eurozone for a while.
We have a really nasty transition ahead. We need to close a current account deficit of 7% of GDP (which is almost as high as Spain was ahead of the Eurozone crisis). And we're doing it with a higher level of government and private sector debt. Our economy has been based around borrowing to spend on imported tat. That's not sustainable.
And this is the true threat to Brexit: a nasty recession causing the fall of the government, leading to the election of a pro-EU party.
You are assuming Brexiteers want to understand the scale of the problem and want to seek a solution that maximises the gain/minimises the pain.
What if they just don't? What happens if they don't care if the negotiations go well or badly? Is there anything posted on this board that persuades you that they do?
If you weren't invested in the result, and were approaching this board as a noob from, say, China, how would you characterise the attitude of the Bitter Enders on this board?
I struggle with your views here. The leaders of the EU must act in their own best interests, yes? That won't necessarily match our best interests. It's also pretty much indisputable that they would suffer less than us in the near term: private sector debt is massively lower across the EU, government deficits are less, and almost every country runs a current account surplus against our current account deficit. The EU (and specifically the Eurozone) is at a cyclical low. We're at a cyclical high. That means we're likely to underperform the EU and the Eurozone for a while.
We have a really nasty transition ahead. We need to close a current account deficit of 7% of GDP (which is almost as high as Spain was ahead of the Eurozone crisis). And we're doing it with a higher level of government and private sector debt. Our economy has been based around borrowing to spend on imported tat. That's not sustainable.
And this is the true threat to Brexit: a nasty recession causing the fall of the government, leading to the election of a pro-EU party.
You are assuming Brexiteers want to understand the scale of the problem and want to seek a solution that maximises the gain/minimises the pain.
What if they just don't? What happens if they don't care if the negotiations go well or badly? Is there anything posted on this board that persuades you that they do?
If you weren't invested in the result, and were approaching this board as a noob from, say, China, how would you characterise the attitude of the Bitter Enders on this board?
Freedom has a price. If it has to be paid so be it.
On the other hand, we in England in the Seventeenth Century had a civil war and Glorious Revolution that established Parliament as sovereign and declared:
No foreign prince, person, prelate, state, or potentate hath, or ought to have, any jurisdiction, power, superiority, pre-eminence, or authority, ecclesiastical or spiritual, within this realm.
It's difficult to defend the 1688 invasion as "no foreign prince" when it involved an successful invasion of England, the removal of a born-and-bred English King (James II) and the installation of a European Prince of a European Principality (William III) on the English throne
The triumph of the Protestant Ascendancy and smashing of Popery is certainly something my ancestors cheered in 1689.
I might be Catholic, but my male line is descended from sound Ulster Protestant stock.
My late mother in law wasnt very happy about that :-)
I see today's Sun uses the phrase " the Enemy within " in the headline over Trevor Kavanagh's oped on Brexit ( who to his credit doesn't use it in his article. As Kavanagh was targeting those fighting for Soft Brexit/Single Market membership the sub editing is especially chilling.
I hope Paul from Bedfordshire realises that he is in this category...
All part of the murdoch department of pscho-ops against Brussels negotiators dear fellow. Unless they really believe we would walk out on them and go WTO then they wont see sense.
Unions have done it for a century - other than those who used their members as political cannon fodder like Scargill.
Pound falling, Tory support rising and remainers squealing like stuck pigs is just the message we want them to see.
yup, if all the bad news is factored in, theres nothing to lose.
As Lenin said
"The worse, the better"
Alas, when the Russian people thought it could get no worse, it did.
You must read Geoffrey Parker's Global Crisis: War, Climate Change and Catastrophe. It's a look at the Seventeenth Century, during a period called The Mini Ice Age.
Low temperatures caused poor harvests. Which caused the peasantry to revolt, believing things could be no worse.
But, of course, things got a lot worse. Revolts and civil war caused far worse damage to the peasantry than poor harvests alone.
It is a salutory reminder that tearing down the existing social order does not always cause the desired effect.
As the Syrians could tell you today. History has a tendency to repeat.
It always does. We move in cycles of progress and decline. One day, the executioner and the torture chamber will return to Western Europe.
Hope so. I intend to put as many Remainers to the sword as possible.
I struggle with your views here. The leaders of the EU must act in their own best interests, yes? That won't necessarily match our best interests. It's also pretty much indisputable that they would suffer less than us in the near term: private sector debt is massively lower across the EU, government deficits are less, and almost every country runs a current account surplus against our current account deficit. The EU (and specifically the Eurozone) is at a cyclical low. We're at a cyclical high. That means we're likely to underperform the EU and the Eurozone for a while.
We have a really nasty transition ahead. We need to close a current account deficit of 7% of GDP (which is almost as high as Spain was ahead of the Eurozone crisis). And we're doing it with a higher level of government and private sector debt. Our economy has been based around borrowing to spend on imported tat. That's not sustainable.
And this is the true threat to Brexit: a nasty recession causing the fall of the government, leading to the election of a pro-EU party.
You are assuming Brexiteers want to understand the scale of the problem and want to seek a solution that maximises the gain/minimises the pain.
What if they just don't? What happens if they don't care if the negotiations go well or badly? Is there anything posted on this board that persuades you that they do?
If you weren't invested in the result, and were approaching this board as a noob from, say, China, how would you characterise the attitude of the Bitter Enders on this board?
Can you please stop using the word Brexiteer. It implies that they have some kind of romanticism, or chivalry. It creates the impression of nobility, justness, righteousness. Actually, they are a bunch of nihilistic cunts.
I struggle with your views here. The leaders of the EU must act in their own best interests, yes? That won't necessarily match our best interests. It's also pretty much indisputable that they would suffer less than us in the near term: private sector debt is massively lower across the EU, government deficits are less, and almost every country runs a current account surplus against our current account deficit. The EU (and specifically the Eurozone) is at a cyclical low. We're at a cyclical high. That means we're likely to underperform the EU and the Eurozone for a while.
We have a really nasty transition ahead. We need to close a current account deficit of 7% of GDP (which is almost as high as Spain was ahead of the Eurozone crisis). And we're doing it with a higher level of government and private sector debt. Our economy has been based around borrowing to spend on imported tat. That's not sustainable.
And this is the true threat to Brexit: a nasty recession causing the fall of the government, leading to the election of a pro-EU party.
You are assuming Brexiteers want to understand the scale of the problem and want to seek a solution that maximises the gain/minimises the pain.
What if they just don't? What happens if they don't care if the negotiations go well or badly? Is there anything posted on this board that persuades you that they do?
If you weren't invested in the result, and were approaching this board as a noob from, say, China, how would you characterise the attitude of the Bitter Enders on this board?
Freedom has a price. If it has to be paid so be it.
Freedom is worth jack schmit and won't put bread on my table. I expect the Conservatives will lose the next election, irrespective of whoever leads Labour, IF we end up with a hard-Brexit. They will be shown to be unable to manage the economy and as I have read many times here, "its the economy stupid" [Not meaning you] that is most important.
I note the things you state economically, but they are still trying to sort out a single currency that is causing economic ruin in the south which makes them vulnerable, especially with Uncle Vlad on manouvers and filling East Prussia with missiles.
Why do you insist on misusing historical terms like East Prussia? It's non congruous with Kaliningrad you know.
Because it f***ing well is East Prussia with Kaliningrad the capital being a renamed Konigsberg, the ancient Prussian capital. The western bit of it being lopped off into Poland in 1945 is irrelevant.
And the historical parallel is quite creepy. Russia now separated from East Prussia by Poland etc. since 1990 and rather sore about those territorial losses just as Germany was after Versailles.
East Prussia was much bigger than the modern day Kaliningrad oblast, with part of it also being part of modern day Lithuania. The use of the term is not illuminating in the slightest.
May has the numbers to force Article 50 through the Commons. If the Lords or the courts attempt to block it, she has the perfect excuse for an election.
Does anybody seriously think she would win other than a crushing victory?
An election would be high risk for May. It would be difficult to agree what was in the manifesto given the divergence of opinion within the party. She would come under scrutiny herself in the campaign and has no track record of leading election campaigns.
Does she have the numbers? And what about the backers - surely they are starting to get anxious about the single market status and the anti business rhetoric we saw last week?
An election now would see the Conservatives win c.400 seats.
Which is why she should call one.
Establishing her own mandate would significantly strengthen May and her negotiating hand, make governing easier and extend her term of office out to 2022; time to demonstrate some post Brexit economic and political fruits.
I struggle with your views here. The leaders of the EU must act in their own best interests, yes? That won't necessarily match our best interests. It's also pretty much indisputable that they would suffer less than us in the near term: private sector debt is massively lower across the EU, government deficits are less, and almost every country runs a current account surplus against our current account deficit. The EU (and specifically the Eurozone) is at a cyclical low. We're at a cyclical high. That means we're likely to underperform the EU and the Eurozone for a while.
We have a really nasty transition ahead. We need to close a current account deficit of 7% of GDP (which is almost as high as Spain was ahead of the Eurozone crisis). And we're doing it with a higher level of government and private sector debt. Our economy has been based around borrowing to spend on imported tat. That's not sustainable.
And this is the true threat to Brexit: a nasty recession causing the fall of the government, leading to the election of a pro-EU party.
You are assuming Brexiteers want to understand the scale of the problem and want to seek a solution that maximises the gain/minimises the pain.
What if they just don't? What happens if they don't care if the negotiations go well or badly? Is there anything posted on this board that persuades you that they do?
If you weren't invested in the result, and were approaching this board as a noob from, say, China, how would you characterise the attitude of the Bitter Enders on this board?
Can you please stop using the word Brexiteer. It implies that they have some kind of romanticism, or chivalry. It creates the impression of nobility, justness, righteousness. Actually, they are a bunch of nihilistic cunts.
I struggle with your views here. The leaders of the EU must act in their own best interests, yes? That won't necessarily match our best interests. It's also pretty much indisputable that they would suffer less than us in the near term: private sector debt is massively lower across the EU, government deficits are less, and almost every country runs a current account surplus against our current account deficit. The EU (and specifically the Eurozone) is at a cyclical low. We're at a cyclical high. That means we're likely to underperform the EU and the Eurozone for a while.
We have a really nasty transition ahead. We need to close a current account deficit of 7% of GDP (which is almost as high as Spain was ahead of the Eurozone crisis). And we're doing it with a higher level of government and private sector debt. Our economy has been based around borrowing to spend on imported tat. That's not sustainable.
And this is the true threat to Brexit: a nasty recession causing the fall of the government, leading to the election of a pro-EU party.
You are assuming Brexiteers want to understand the scale of the problem and want to seek a solution that maximises the gain/minimises the pain.
What if they just don't? What happens if they don't care if the negotiations go well or badly? Is there anything posted on this board that persuades you that they do?
If you weren't invested in the result, and were approaching this board as a noob from, say, China, how would you characterise the attitude of the Bitter Enders on this board?
Freedom has a price. If it has to be paid so be it.
Freedom is worth jack schmit and won't put bread on my table. I expect the Conservatives will lose the next election, irrespective of whoever leads Labour, IF we end up with a hard-Brexit. They will be shown to be unable to manage the economy and as I have read many times here, "its the economy stupid" [Not meaning you] that is most important.
It is predominately the 48% who are going to have to implement the Brexit plan to make it a success. So far there seems little from TM to show she is listening to their concerns. I read today that sterling is in the bottom 5 performing currencies in the world this year along with 4 other African ones.
I struggle with your views here. The leaders of the EU must act in their own best interests, yes? That won't necessarily match our best interests. It's also pretty much indisputable that they would suffer less than us in the near term: private sector debt is massively lower across the EU, government deficits are less, and almost every country runs a current account surplus against our current account deficit. The EU (and specifically the Eurozone) is at a cyclical low. We're at a cyclical high. That means we're likely to underperform the EU and the Eurozone for a while.
We have a really nasty transition ahead. We need to close a current account deficit of 7% of GDP (which is almost as high as Spain was ahead of the Eurozone crisis). And we're doing it with a higher level of government and private sector debt. Our economy has been based around borrowing to spend on imported tat. That's not sustainable.
And this is the true threat to Brexit: a nasty recession causing the fall of the government, leading to the election of a pro-EU party.
You are assuming Brexiteers want to understand the scale of the problem and want to seek a solution that maximises the gain/minimises the pain.
What if they just don't? What happens if they don't care if the negotiations go well or badly? Is there anything posted on this board that persuades you that they do?
If you weren't invested in the result, and were approaching this board as a noob from, say, China, how would you characterise the attitude of the Bitter Enders on this board?
Can you please stop using the word Brexiteer. It implies that they have some kind of romanticism, or chivalry. It creates the impression of nobility, justness, righteousness. Actually, they are a bunch of nihilistic cunts.
Hmmmm. Even Trump only used the word "pussy".
I'm no prude, but that is not acceptable language on this site.
"The Treasury’s long-term economic analysis of a British exit from the EU arrives at a central estimate that it would ultimately lower UK economic output 6.2 per cent, amounting to an annual cost to British households of £4,300 a year.
This central estimate is based on securing a free-trade-in-goods relationship with the EU such as the one that has almost been agreed with Canada. A closer, Norwegian-style relationship would impart a 3.8 per cent hit to gross domestic product while a looser trade relationship under World Trade Organisation rules would lower GDP by 7.5 per cent.
Each of these estimates has a margin for error around it, suggesting reasonable Treasury confidence that the estimates of the economic damage caused by leaving the EU would range from 3.4 per cent to 9.5 per cent."
I struggle with your views here. The leaders of the EU must act in their own best interests, yes? That won't necessarily match our best interests. It's also pretty much indisputable that they would suffer less than us in the near term: private sector debt is massively lower across the EU, government deficits are less, and almost every country runs a current account surplus against our current account deficit. The EU (and specifically the Eurozone) is at a cyclical low. We're at a cyclical high. That means we're likely to underperform the EU and the Eurozone for a while.
We have a really nasty transition ahead. We need to close a current account deficit of 7% of GDP (which is almost as high as Spain was ahead of the Eurozone crisis). And we're doing it with a higher level of government and private sector debt. Our economy has been based around borrowing to spend on imported tat. That's not sustainable.
And this is the true threat to Brexit: a nasty recession causing the fall of the government, leading to the election of a pro-EU party.
You are assuming Brexiteers want to understand the scale of the problem and want to seek a solution that maximises the gain/minimises the pain.
What if they just don't? What happens if they don't care if the negotiations go well or badly? Is there anything posted on this board that persuades you that they do?
If you weren't invested in the result, and were approaching this board as a noob from, say, China, how would you characterise the attitude of the Bitter Enders on this board?
Can you please stop using the word Brexiteer. It implies that they have some kind of romanticism, or chivalry. It creates the impression of nobility, justness, righteousness. Actually, they are a bunch of nihilistic cunts.
Next time you complain about those who accuse you of personal insults, and act with incredulity demanding evidence of this, I shall point you to this post.
"The Treasury’s long-term economic analysis of a British exit from the EU arrives at a central estimate that it would ultimately lower UK economic output 6.2 per cent, amounting to an annual cost to British households of £4,300 a year.
This central estimate is based on securing a free-trade-in-goods relationship with the EU such as the one that has almost been agreed with Canada. A closer, Norwegian-style relationship would impart a 3.8 per cent hit to gross domestic product while a looser trade relationship under World Trade Organisation rules would lower GDP by 7.5 per cent.
Each of these estimates has a margin for error around it, suggesting reasonable Treasury confidence that the estimates of the economic damage caused by leaving the EU would range from 3.4 per cent to 9.5 per cent."
So this story is just a rehash of what was said during the referendum?
"The Treasury’s long-term economic analysis of a British exit from the EU arrives at a central estimate that it would ultimately lower UK economic output 6.2 per cent, amounting to an annual cost to British households of £4,300 a year.
This central estimate is based on securing a free-trade-in-goods relationship with the EU such as the one that has almost been agreed with Canada. A closer, Norwegian-style relationship would impart a 3.8 per cent hit to gross domestic product while a looser trade relationship under World Trade Organisation rules would lower GDP by 7.5 per cent.
Each of these estimates has a margin for error around it, suggesting reasonable Treasury confidence that the estimates of the economic damage caused by leaving the EU would range from 3.4 per cent to 9.5 per cent."
So this story is just a rehash of what was said during the referendum?
Not quite, the Treasury are sticking with their report, and saying their assumptions were right.
"The Treasury’s long-term economic analysis of a British exit from the EU arrives at a central estimate that it would ultimately lower UK economic output 6.2 per cent, amounting to an annual cost to British households of £4,300 a year.
This central estimate is based on securing a free-trade-in-goods relationship with the EU such as the one that has almost been agreed with Canada. A closer, Norwegian-style relationship would impart a 3.8 per cent hit to gross domestic product while a looser trade relationship under World Trade Organisation rules would lower GDP by 7.5 per cent.
Each of these estimates has a margin for error around it, suggesting reasonable Treasury confidence that the estimates of the economic damage caused by leaving the EU would range from 3.4 per cent to 9.5 per cent."
So this story is just a rehash of what was said during the referendum?
The Treasury is standing by its estimates. Meanwhile, Leavers will continue to chant "la la la I'm not listening".
Can you please stop using the word Brexiteer. It implies that they have some kind of romanticism, or chivalry. It creates the impression of nobility, justness, righteousness. Actually, they are a bunch of nihilistic cunts.
I frequently criticise Brexiteers for using slurs like "remoaners", so it would be problematic for me to describe them as "cunts". Plus I think PlatoSaid and Cyclefree are women, so...
Although thinking about it I have described PM May as a "dumbfuck" , so obviously my chivalry does not go as far as I'd like. But still, one at least tries to be good.
I struggle with your views here. The leaders of the EU must act in their own best interests, yes? That won't necessarily match our best interests. It's also pretty much indisputable that they would suffer less than us in the near term: private sector debt is massively lower across the EU, government deficits are less, and almost every country runs a current account surplus against our current account deficit. The EU (and specifically the Eurozone) is at a cyclical low. We're at a cyclical high. That means we're likely to underperform the EU and the Eurozone for a while.
We have a really nasty transition ahead. We need to close a current account deficit of 7% of GDP (which is almost as high as Spain was ahead of the Eurozone crisis). And we're doing it with a higher level of government and private sector debt. Our economy has been based around borrowing to spend on imported tat. That's not sustainable.
And this is the true threat to Brexit: a nasty recession causing the fall of the government, leading to the election of a pro-EU party.
You are assuming Brexiteers want to understand the scale of the problem and want to seek a solution that maximises the gain/minimises the pain.
What if they just don't? What happens if they don't care if the negotiations go well or badly? Is there anything posted on this board that persuades you that they do?
If you weren't invested in the result, and were approaching this board as a noob from, say, China, how would you characterise the attitude of the Bitter Enders on this board?
Freedom has a price. If it has to be paid so be it.
Freedom is worth jack schmit and won't put bread on my table. I expect the Conservatives will lose the next election, irrespective of whoever leads Labour, IF we end up with a hard-Brexit. They will be shown to be unable to manage the economy and as I have read many times here, "its the economy stupid" [Not meaning you] that is most important.
You should live in Brunei. It's one of the least free societies on Earth, but one of the richest.
I struggle with your views here. The leaders of the EU must act in their own best interests, yes? That won't necessarily match our best interests. It's also pretty much indisputable that they would suffer less than us in the near term: private sector debt is massively lower across the EU, government deficits are less, and almost every country runs a current account surplus against our current account deficit. The EU (and specifically the Eurozone) is at a cyclical low. We're at a cyclical high. That means we're likely to underperform the EU and the Eurozone for a while.
We have a really nasty transition ahead. We need to close a current account deficit of 7% of GDP (which is almost as high as Spain was ahead of the Eurozone crisis). And we're doing it with a higher level of government and private sector debt. Our economy has been based around borrowing to spend on imported tat. That's not sustainable.
And this is the true threat to Brexit: a nasty recession causing the fall of the government, leading to the election of a pro-EU party.
You are assuming Brexiteers want to understand the scale of the problem and want to seek a solution that maximises the gain/minimises the pain.
What if they just don't? What happens if they don't care if the negotiations go well or badly? Is there anything posted on this board that persuades you that they do?
If you weren't invested in the result, and were approaching this board as a noob from, say, China, how would you characterise the attitude of the Bitter Enders on this board?
Can you please stop using the word Brexiteer. It implies that they have some kind of romanticism, or chivalry. It creates the impression of nobility, justness, righteousness. Actually, they are a bunch of nihilistic cunts.
Next time you complain about those who accuse you of personal insults, and act with incredulity demanding evidence of this, I shall point you to this post.
I still don't think I have ever made one personal attack on another poster here apart from calling seanT a narcissist.
If you consider yourself a cunt because of my post that is entirely up to you. I was attacking a nihilistic, backward ideology (Brexit) rather than attacking an individual poster.......so you can draw my attention to this post as much as you like. I have taken a lot of personal abuse here without giving anything personal back.
I struggle with your views here. The leaders of the EU must act in their own best interests, yes? That won't necessarily match our best interests. It's also pretty much indisputable that they would suffer less than us in the near term: private sector debt is massively lower across the EU, government deficits are less, and almost every country runs a current account surplus against our current account deficit. The EU (and specifically the Eurozone) is at a cyclical low. We're at a cyclical high. That means we're likely to underperform the EU and the Eurozone for a while.
We have a really nasty transition ahead. We need to close a current account deficit of 7% of GDP (which is almost as high as Spain was ahead of the Eurozone crisis). And we're doing it with a higher level of government and private sector debt. Our economy has been based around borrowing to spend on imported tat. That's not sustainable.
And this is the true threat to Brexit: a nasty recession causing the fall of the government, leading to the election of a pro-EU party.
You are assuming Brexiteers want to understand the scale of the problem and want to seek a solution that maximises the gain/minimises the pain.
What if they just don't? What happens if they don't care if the negotiations go well or badly? Is there anything posted on this board that persuades you that they do?
If you weren't invested in the result, and were approaching this board as a noob from, say, China, how would you characterise the attitude of the Bitter Enders on this board?
Can you please stop using the word Brexiteer. It implies that they have some kind of romanticism, or chivalry. It creates the impression of nobility, justness, righteousness. Actually, they are a bunch of nihilistic cunts.
Next time you complain about those who accuse you of personal insults, and act with incredulity demanding evidence of this, I shall point you to this post.
I still don't think I have ever made one personal attack on another poster here apart from calling seanT a narcissist.
If you consider yourself a cunt because of my post that is entirely up to you. I was attacking a nihilistic, backward ideology (Brexit) rather than attacking an individual poster.......so you can draw my attention to this post as much as you like. I have taken a lot of personal abuse here without giving anything personal back.
Tyson, you dish out endless abuse of other posters, while being affronted when they respond in kind.
Can you please stop using the word Brexiteer. It implies that they have some kind of romanticism, or chivalry. It creates the impression of nobility, justness, righteousness. Actually, they are a bunch of nihilistic cunts.
I frequently criticise Brexiteers for using slurs like "remoaners", so it would be problematic for me to describe them as "cunts". Plus I think PlatoSaid and Cyclefree are women, so...
Although thinking about it I have described PM May as a "dumbfuck" , so obviously my chivalry does not go as far as I'd like. But still, one at least tries to be good.
I really don't mind any generic terms Viewcode directed at my political perspective...remoaners, socialist scum, etc...... Goes with the territory.
But I get so much individual stuff levelled at me here by individual posters......dick, twat, traitor, paedo (one time), fuck off, and worse (which I will not mention)...... and I never give any of that back. I just kind of think it reflects on them as people.
I struggle with your views here. The leaders of the EU must act in their own best interests, yes? That won't necessarily match our best interests. It's also pretty much indisputable that they would suffer less than us in the near term: private sector debt is massively lower across the EU, government deficits are less, and almost every country runs a current account surplus against our current account deficit. The EU (and specifically the Eurozone) is at a cyclical low. We're at a cyclical high. That means we're likely to underperform the EU and the Eurozone for a while.
We have a really nasty transition ahead. We need to close a current account deficit of 7% of GDP (which is almost as high as Spain was ahead of the Eurozone crisis). And we're doing it with a higher level of government and private sector debt. Our economy has been based around borrowing to spend on imported tat. That's not sustainable.
And this is the true threat to Brexit: a nasty recession causing the fall of the government, leading to the election of a pro-EU party.
You are assuming Brexiteers want to understand the scale of the problem and want to seek a solution that maximises the gain/minimises the pain.
What if they just don't? What happens if they don't care if the negotiations go well or badly? Is there anything posted on this board that persuades you that they do?
If you weren't invested in the result, and were approaching this board as a noob from, say, China, how would you characterise the attitude of the Bitter Enders on this board?
Can you please stop using the word Brexiteer. It implies that they have some kind of romanticism, or chivalry. It creates the impression of nobility, justness, righteousness. Actually, they are a bunch of nihilistic cunts.
Next time you complain about those who accuse you of personal insults, and act with incredulity demanding evidence of this, I shall point you to this post.
I still don't think I have ever made one personal attack on another poster here apart from calling seanT a narcissist.
If you consider yourself a cunt because of my post that is entirely up to you. I was attacking a nihilistic, backward ideology (Brexit) rather than attacking an individual poster.......so you can draw my attention to this post as much as you like. I have taken a lot of personal abuse here without giving anything personal back.
Right now I suggest that the key question is not remain v leave, or hard v soft Brexit.
The most relevant Q is whether we think the government now has at least the outline of an agreed strategy and common approach in place, with the key players more or less on the same page, and is simply doing its best to protect our negotiating position by endeavouring to keep the decisions behind closed doors. And, further, that much of the comment and consequential analysis that is being made might well be clever conditioning in advance of A50 and the formal discussions.
Or, on the other hand, whether we think that the government is still basically clueless and playing things by ear, that the key players have their own agendas with May struggling to keep them in line, that there is a tussle going on mainly inside the Tory party between hard and soft, and a certain amount of fear of those outside the party backing each position (basically UKIP on the one hand and big business on the other).
Whilst the debate here indicates that most remainers lean toward the more pessimistic second view and most leavers towards the optimistic former, it is of course perfectly possible to be a leaver who doesn't think the government is handling it well or has yet got its act together, or a Remainer who believes that May mostly knows what she is doing.
Personally I would have expected to see a bit more common purpose from the top Tories before I bought into the first view. Unfortunately egos are often problematic in politics and the very long-lasting nature of the divisions within the Conservatives together with the suddenness with which we found ourselves in uncharted waters, coupled with experience that clued up politicians with agreed strategies are relatively uncommon, suggests to me that the government probably has a lot more work still to do before we get to March and A50. Plus there are lots of loose ends (Scotland, N Ireland and the border, Gibralter, the legal cases, etc.) still unresolved.
@seanFear....I don't slag off other posters....sorry, I don't (maybe seanT one time for being a narcissist). I have made personal attacks on politicians...Cameron, Osborne, Miliband, Corbyn and Brown, over the twelve years or so I have posted here, but as far as other individual posters here, I don't think I have.
I posted to Plato that I find ideological right wing women sexually repulsive...something she didn't like...... and I kind of knew that was a bit under the radar.....
I struggle with your views here. The leaders of the EU must act in their own best interests, yes? That won't necessarily match our best interests. It's also pretty much indisputable that they would suffer less than us in the near term: private sector debt is massively lower across the EU, government deficits are less, and almost every country runs a current account surplus against our current account deficit. The EU (and specifically the Eurozone) is at a cyclical low. We're at a cyclical high. That means we're likely to underperform the EU and the Eurozone for a while.
We have a really nasty transition ahead. We need to close a current account deficit of 7% of GDP (which is almost as high as Spain was ahead of the Eurozone crisis). And we're doing it with a higher level of government and private sector debt. Our economy has been based around borrowing to spend on imported tat. That's not sustainable.
And this is the true threat to Brexit: a nasty recession causing the fall of the government, leading to the election of a pro-EU party.
You are assuming Brexiteers want to understand the scale of the problem and want to seek a solution that maximises the gain/minimises the pain.
What if they just don't? What happens if they don't care if the negotiations go well or badly? Is there anything posted on this board that persuades you that they do?
If you weren't invested in the result, and were approaching this board as a noob from, say, China, how would you characterise the attitude of the Bitter Enders on this board?
Can you please stop using the word Brexiteer. It implies that they have some kind of romanticism, or chivalry. It creates the impression of nobility, justness, righteousness. Actually, they are a bunch of nihilistic cunts.
Next time you complain about those who accuse you of personal insults, and act with incredulity demanding evidence of this, I shall point you to this post.
I still don't think I have ever made one personal attack on another poster here apart from calling seanT a narcissist.
If you consider yourself a cunt because of my post that is entirely up to you. I was attacking a nihilistic, backward ideology (Brexit) rather than attacking an individual poster.......so you can draw my attention to this post as much as you like. I have taken a lot of personal abuse here without giving anything personal back.
Gosh you're a shithead sometimes.
You have kind of proved my point. So well done for a point well made....
On rolling the dice and getting double sixes vs snake eyes, well Brexit is neither. It is pre-emptive action to protect the nation from a future populist uprising that we've been seeing in the US. They are very lucky that Nige is ineligible to run for president over there, he would have absolutely walked it, and the problems in America don't go away when Trump loses.
All across the EU we're seeing populists in the ascendancy or rising. Fidesz won in Poland, Orban is dominant in Hungary, Bepe Grillo is probably going to be the next Italian PM, Le Pen is in with a shout in France, the FPO will probably win the rerun in Austria, AfD will comfortably be the largest non-governing party in the Bundestag. There are also more UKIP style parties in Northern Europe, PVV in the Netherlands, the True Finns are in the governing coalition, the Sweden Democrats are polling relatively well and will gain seats, possibly end up as the largest party.
So looking across the channel at the rebellion against the establishment, Brexit is a symptom of the larger disease of wealth and income inequality. It is at times like these that we must look after our own and get our own house in order or everything we've built will be swept away. I'd rather Brexit than deal with a very messy populist uprising in 10-15 years.
I struggle with your views here. The leaders of the EU must act in their own best interests, yes? That won't necessarily match our best interests. It's also pretty much indisputable that they would suffer less than us in the near term: private sector debt is massively lower across the EU, government deficits are less, and almost every country runs a current account surplus against our current account deficit. The EU (and specifically the Eurozone) is at a cyclical low. We're at a cyclical high. That means we're likely to underperform the EU and the Eurozone for a while.
We have a really nasty transition ahead. We need to close a current account deficit of 7% of GDP (which is almost as high as Spain was ahead of the Eurozone crisis). And we're doing it with a higher level of government and private sector debt. Our economy has been based around borrowing to spend on imported tat. That's not sustainable.
And this is the true threat to Brexit: a nasty recession causing the fall of the government, leading to the election of a pro-EU party.
You are assuming Brexiteers want to understand the scale of the problem and want to seek a solution that maximises the gain/minimises the pain.
What if they just don't? What happens if they don't care if the negotiations go well or badly? Is there anything posted on this board that persuades you that they do?
If you weren't invested in the result, and were approaching this board as a noob from, say, China, how would you characterise the attitude of the Bitter Enders on this board?
Can you please stop using the word Brexiteer. It implies that they have some kind of romanticism, or chivalry. It creates the impression of nobility, justness, righteousness. Actually, they are a bunch of nihilistic cunts.
Next time you complain about those who accuse you of personal insults, and act with incredulity demanding evidence of this, I shall point you to this post.
I still don't think I have ever made one personal attack on another poster here apart from calling seanT a narcissist.
If you consider yourself a cunt because of my post that is entirely up to you. I was attacking a nihilistic, backward ideology (Brexit) rather than attacking an individual poster.......so you can draw my attention to this post as much as you like. I have taken a lot of personal abuse here without giving anything personal back.
Gosh you're a shithead sometimes.
You have kind of proved my point. So well done for a point well made....
On rolling the dice and getting double sixes vs snake eyes, well Brexit is neither. It is pre-emptive action to protect the nation from a future populist uprising that we've been seeing in the US. They are very lucky that Nige is ineligible to run for president over there, he would have absolutely walked it, and the problems in America don't go away when Trump loses.
All across the EU we're seeing populists in the ascendancy or rising. Fidesz won in Poland, Orban is dominant in Hungary, Bepe Grillo is probably going to be the next Italian PM, Le Pen is in with a shout in France, the FPO will probably win the rerun in Austria, AfD will comfortably be the largest non-governing party in the Bundestag. There are also more UKIP style parties in Northern Europe, PVV in the Netherlands, the True Finns are in the governing coalition, the Sweden Democrats are polling relatively well and will gain seats, possibly end up as the largest party.
So looking across the channel at the rebellion against the establishment, Brexit is a symptom of the larger disease of wealth and income inequality. It is at times like these that we must look after our own and get our own house in order or everything we've built will be swept away. I'd rather Brexit than deal with a very messy populist uprising in 10-15 years.
"The Treasury’s long-term economic analysis of a British exit from the EU arrives at a central estimate that it would ultimately lower UK economic output 6.2 per cent, amounting to an annual cost to British households of £4,300 a year.
This central estimate is based on securing a free-trade-in-goods relationship with the EU such as the one that has almost been agreed with Canada. A closer, Norwegian-style relationship would impart a 3.8 per cent hit to gross domestic product while a looser trade relationship under World Trade Organisation rules would lower GDP by 7.5 per cent.
Each of these estimates has a margin for error around it, suggesting reasonable Treasury confidence that the estimates of the economic damage caused by leaving the EU would range from 3.4 per cent to 9.5 per cent."
chortle
and as when they first released the "estimate" they are no more capable of forecasting 13 years into the future now than they were 3 months ago.
Anyone who has had to do forecasting will simply laugh
Comments
And the historical parallel is quite creepy. Russia now separated from East Prussia by Poland etc. since 1990 and rather sore about those territorial losses just as Germany was after Versailles.
What if they just don't? What happens if they don't care if the negotiations go well or badly? Is there anything posted on this board that persuades you that they do?
If you weren't invested in the result, and were approaching this board as a noob from, say, China, how would you characterise the attitude of the Bitter Enders on this board?
My late mother in law wasnt very happy about that :-)
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/10/09/foreign-policy-endorses-hillary-clinton-for-president-of-the-united-states/
http://nemet-sorstragedia.lorincz-veger.hu/images/ostpreussen_map_en.jpg
Nobody thinks that at the end of it.
Establishing her own mandate would significantly strengthen May and her negotiating hand, make governing easier and extend her term of office out to 2022; time to demonstrate some post Brexit economic and political fruits.
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/785590430712885248
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/785590430712885248
It is predominately the 48% who are going to have to implement the Brexit plan to make it a success. So far there seems little from TM to show she is listening to their concerns. I read today that sterling is in the bottom 5 performing currencies in the world this year along with 4 other African ones.
I'm no prude, but that is not acceptable language on this site.
"The Treasury’s long-term economic analysis of a British exit from the EU arrives at a central estimate that it would ultimately lower UK economic output 6.2 per cent, amounting to an annual cost to British households of £4,300 a year.
This central estimate is based on securing a free-trade-in-goods relationship with the EU such as the one that has almost been agreed with Canada. A closer, Norwegian-style relationship would impart a 3.8 per cent hit to gross domestic product while a looser trade relationship under World Trade Organisation rules would lower GDP by 7.5 per cent.
Each of these estimates has a margin for error around it, suggesting reasonable Treasury confidence that the estimates of the economic damage caused by leaving the EU would range from 3.4 per cent to 9.5 per cent."
Although thinking about it I have described PM May as a "dumbfuck" , so obviously my chivalry does not go as far as I'd like. But still, one at least tries to be good.
It would do the Remain case much better to use credible figures, like a revenue loss of £15-20 billion* a year, initially.
*worth remembering we are currently dealing with a deficit of £70+ billion
The Times aren't achangin'
If you consider yourself a cunt because of my post that is entirely up to you. I was attacking a nihilistic, backward ideology (Brexit) rather than attacking an individual poster.......so you can draw my attention to this post as much as you like. I have taken a lot of personal abuse here without giving anything personal back.
But I get so much individual stuff levelled at me here by individual posters......dick, twat, traitor, paedo (one time), fuck off, and worse (which I will not mention)...... and I never give any of that back. I just kind of think it reflects on them as people.
The most relevant Q is whether we think the government now has at least the outline of an agreed strategy and common approach in place, with the key players more or less on the same page, and is simply doing its best to protect our negotiating position by endeavouring to keep the decisions behind closed doors. And, further, that much of the comment and consequential analysis that is being made might well be clever conditioning in advance of A50 and the formal discussions.
Or, on the other hand, whether we think that the government is still basically clueless and playing things by ear, that the key players have their own agendas with May struggling to keep them in line, that there is a tussle going on mainly inside the Tory party between hard and soft, and a certain amount of fear of those outside the party backing each position (basically UKIP on the one hand and big business on the other).
Whilst the debate here indicates that most remainers lean toward the more pessimistic second view and most leavers towards the optimistic former, it is of course perfectly possible to be a leaver who doesn't think the government is handling it well or has yet got its act together, or a Remainer who believes that May mostly knows what she is doing.
Personally I would have expected to see a bit more common purpose from the top Tories before I bought into the first view. Unfortunately egos are often problematic in politics and the very long-lasting nature of the divisions within the Conservatives together with the suddenness with which we found ourselves in uncharted waters, coupled with experience that clued up politicians with agreed strategies are relatively uncommon, suggests to me that the government probably has a lot more work still to do before we get to March and A50. Plus there are lots of loose ends (Scotland, N Ireland and the border, Gibralter, the legal cases, etc.) still unresolved.
I posted to Plato that I find ideological right wing women sexually repulsive...something she didn't like...... and I kind of knew that was a bit under the radar.....
All across the EU we're seeing populists in the ascendancy or rising. Fidesz won in Poland, Orban is dominant in Hungary, Bepe Grillo is probably going to be the next Italian PM, Le Pen is in with a shout in France, the FPO will probably win the rerun in Austria, AfD will comfortably be the largest non-governing party in the Bundestag. There are also more UKIP style parties in Northern Europe, PVV in the Netherlands, the True Finns are in the governing coalition, the Sweden Democrats are polling relatively well and will gain seats, possibly end up as the largest party.
So looking across the channel at the rebellion against the establishment, Brexit is a symptom of the larger disease of wealth and income inequality. It is at times like these that we must look after our own and get our own house in order or everything we've built will be swept away. I'd rather Brexit than deal with a very messy populist uprising in 10-15 years.
and as when they first released the "estimate" they are no more capable of forecasting 13 years into the future now than they were 3 months ago.
Anyone who has had to do forecasting will simply laugh