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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For your evening’s entertainment the wonderful Fascinating Aid

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  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    DavidL said:

    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    If remainers really want a moan surely David Davis said something really stupid today. I mean, he was talking so he must have done.

    Yep. He said involvement of Parliament was micro-management. Everybody laughed.
    Anna Soubry this morning seemed to be saying that she didn't want anything as unseemly as a vote but she wanted a chance to talk about it. It was a frankly weird interview.
    Anna Soubry is frankly weird
    She completely lost it after the EU referendum result.
  • Options
    Chris said:

    JackW said:

    538 Latest Projections - Clinton/Trump :

    Polls Plus - 79.8 - 20.2
    Polls Only - 83.6 - 16.4
    Now Cast - 87.7 - 12.3

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#now

    I see Donald Trump's snake is getting quite short now.

    I suppose they do say "Short fingers, short snake", don't they?
    Having a massive snake doesn't always work out well...just ask Owen Thingy.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    I see today's Sun uses the phrase " the Enemy within " in the headline over Trevor Kavanagh's oped on Brexit ( who to his credit doesn't use it in his article. As Kavanagh was targeting those fighting for Soft Brexit/Single Market membership the sub editing is especially chilling.

    I hope Paul from Bedfordshire realises that he is in this category...
    All part of the murdoch department of pscho-ops against Brussels negotiators dear fellow. Unless they really believe we would walk out on them and go WTO then they wont see sense.

    Unions have done it for a century - other than those who used their members as political cannon fodder like Scargill.

    Pound falling, Tory support rising and remainers squealing like stuck pigs is just the message we want them to see.
    yup, if all the bad news is factored in, theres nothing to lose.
    As Lenin said

    "The worse, the better"

    Alas, when the Russian people thought it could get no worse, it did.
    Were nowhere near that, we could have PM Jezza or Ed. Now that's bad news.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MTimT said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    MTimT said:

    Not heard of Fascinating Aida before - not big in Maryland. I do find the format tedious. Interminable bad music to set up two punchlines based on 'rude' words sung in a posh voice.

    Can be funny (Jerry Springer: The Opera), isn't here.
    Did subsequently watch a couple more of their videos. I'll grant that, while not my style, some are funny. I liked Down With The Kids for its self-deprecating humour.
    YouTube "Socialist Britain" by them. It's a classic
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,472

    DavidL said:

    If remainers really want a moan surely David Davis said something really stupid today. I mean, he was talking so he must have done.

    According to the BBC, he rebuked Iain Duncan Smith in the Commons today for his rudeness in calling Keir Starmer a second rate lawyer, which is extraordinary if true.
    Seems fair enough to me. I would heavily criticise anyone so misguided as to call Starmer a second rate lawyer.

    On his day, he might be a fifth rate lawyer, but not an inch higher.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    I see today's Sun uses the phrase " the Enemy within " in the headline over Trevor Kavanagh's oped on Brexit ( who to his credit doesn't use it in his article. As Kavanagh was targeting those fighting for Soft Brexit/Single Market membership the sub editing is especially chilling.

    I hope Paul from Bedfordshire realises that he is in this category...
    All part of the murdoch department of pscho-ops against Brussels negotiators dear fellow. Unless they really believe we would walk out on them and go WTO then they wont see sense.

    Unions have done it for a century - other than those who used their members as political cannon fodder like Scargill.

    Pound falling, Tory support rising and remainers squealing like stuck pigs is just the message we want them to see.
    yup, if all the bad news is factored in, theres nothing to lose.
    Listened to Ed Miliband this morning playing lip service to respecting the referendum but then demanding free access to the single market. It was so amazing that he said that his constituents had voted 69% leave and the vote must be respected when he is trying to gerrymander a result that ignores sovereignty and control over immigration.

    If these remoaners carry on as they are the people will turn against them in big numbers as the people expect the country to 'take back control' and nothing less, which you cannot do while in the single market.

    Wonder how long it will be before the conservatives move into the 45 - 50% range
    There's a kind of justice in MPs who have ignored the electorate for 2 decades getting their own rules played back to them
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,162

    I see today's Sun uses the phrase " the Enemy within " in the headline over Trevor Kavanagh's oped on Brexit ( who to his credit doesn't use it in his article. As Kavanagh was targeting those fighting for Soft Brexit/Single Market membership the sub editing is especially chilling.

    I hope Paul from Bedfordshire realises that he is in this category...
    All part of the murdoch department of pscho-ops against Brussels negotiators dear fellow. Unless they really believe we would walk out on them and go WTO then they wont see sense.

    Unions have done it for a century - other than those who used their members as political cannon fodder like Scargill.

    Pound falling, Tory support rising and remainers squealing like stuck pigs is just the message we want them to see.
    yup, if all the bad news is factored in, theres nothing to lose.
    As Lenin said

    "The worse, the better"

    Alas, when the Russian people thought it could get no worse, it did.
    Were nowhere near that, we could have PM Jezza or Ed. Now that's bad news.
    There's a direct path from Brexit to having such a PM. We came to a fork in the road and took it.
  • Options
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Mortimer said:

    DavidL said:

    If remainers really want a moan surely David Davis said something really stupid today. I mean, he was talking so he must have done.

    Not his biggest fan, but he was on form today.

    Really? Does that mean he got through a statement without saying anything that will not need " clarified" or said to be his own personal opinion by tomorrow? Remarkable.
    Nope, David Davis sucked again.

    From Laura K's twitter feed

    David Davis- "We will seek the most open, barrier-free market we can. Full stop. That will be as good as a single market."..

    Seems to be further than any minister has gone so far in suggesting that govt won't seek to preserve single market membership...

    No 10 source says 'the PM's position has not changed'

    Sources close to Davis say he is not prejudging anything about membership of single market or the negotiations
    oh how i laughed as EIC bleated on C4 about Parliament needing to be consulted.

    The party that consulted no-one suddenly sees the need for democracy. I hope Davis jams the whole EU treaty up Eds arse and ignores the subsequent howls of pain. 4 chem.

    The more fun statistic was 73% of E&W MPs were remainers but 73% of constituencies voted leave. Fun ahead.

    There are remainers and remainers. There are eurosceptic remainers who appear to be pretty happy with Brexit. Theresa May is obviously one.

    Then there are those who, to varying degrees, are upset by it.

    The eurosceptic/europhile split is about 70/30 in this country, and that's where I think we'd be if there were a second referendum.
    Nice that I can call myself at one with our Prime Minister
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    DavidL said:

    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    If remainers really want a moan surely David Davis said something really stupid today. I mean, he was talking so he must have done.

    Yep. He said involvement of Parliament was micro-management. Everybody laughed.
    Anna Soubry this morning seemed to be saying that she didn't want anything as unseemly as a vote but she wanted a chance to talk about it. It was a frankly weird interview.
    Anna Soubry is frankly weird
    She completely lost it after the EU referendum result.
    they don't like it up em TJ
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,141

    Who posted this drag queen video on PB? OGH? TSE? RCS?

    Actually, they are all women. Adele Anderson is transgender.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,015

    I see today's Sun uses the phrase " the Enemy within " in the headline over Trevor Kavanagh's oped on Brexit ( who to his credit doesn't use it in his article. As Kavanagh was targeting those fighting for Soft Brexit/Single Market membership the sub editing is especially chilling.

    I hope Paul from Bedfordshire realises that he is in this category...
    All part of the murdoch department of pscho-ops against Brussels negotiators dear fellow. Unless they really believe we would walk out on them and go WTO then they wont see sense.

    Unions have done it for a century - other than those who used their members as political cannon fodder like Scargill.

    Pound falling, Tory support rising and remainers squealing like stuck pigs is just the message we want them to see.
    yup, if all the bad news is factored in, theres nothing to lose.
    As Lenin said

    "The worse, the better"

    Alas, when the Russian people thought it could get no worse, it did.
    Were nowhere near that, we could have PM Jezza or Ed. Now that's bad news.
    There's a direct path from Brexit to having such a PM. We came to a fork in the road and took it.
    I take it you haven't seen the latest poll? ;)
  • Options
    Ishmael_X said:

    This is a much better version of story I posted yesterday on post Brexit Homophobic attacks. The article makes clear the figures are based on GALOP's own figures. So a single source of limited data. However it adds to the picture. It seemed to violate a small number of Leaver's safe space yesterday so I'm posting the improved version.

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/oct/08/homophobic-attacks-double-after-brexit-vote?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

    "The number of homophobic attacks more than doubled in the three months after the Brexit vote, with toxicity fostered by the EU referendum debate spreading beyond race and religion, new figures suggest."

    Post hoc ergo propter hoc is a fallacy, not an argument.
    I agree. I think we need to add it to the pile though. When we've more data and hopefully Hate Crime reporting falls back to trend ( it may already have done ) then the academics can get to work. Though if you look at Police Domestic Abuse campains during major international football competitions to give one example the sociological link between crime and culture is hardly new.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,425

    Just catching up on the ICM. New Labour '97 to '05 proves governing parties can function as their own opposition AND win landslide victories if the official opposition books its self into digitas. This situation is even worse for the left. At least in '05 there was a viable centre left alternative under Chaz Kennedy. Today UKIP are still polling in third place. It's difficult to believe so much of the goes back to ' Charity ' nominations of Corbyn by Labour MP's and before that political fratricide by the younger Miliband. I used to argue individual personalities didn't matter much in History. Now I'm for Chaos Theory.

    I tend to the view that what we are really seeing is the consequences of 2008 and the dawning realisation that an economy based on ever higher "investment" by our public sector is doomed to a terrible failure.

    In a world where promising higher public spending is generally met with derision the Left have yet to find a purpose and are wandering aimlessly complaining pointlessly about every cut and freeze in spending. Corbyn might accelerate the trend to irrelevance somewhat but the trend was there as Ed showed all too clearly.

    Can we find a new, smaller state left wingism, focussed on inequality in all its aspects? Not so far.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    I see today's Sun uses the phrase " the Enemy within " in the headline over Trevor Kavanagh's oped on Brexit ( who to his credit doesn't use it in his article. As Kavanagh was targeting those fighting for Soft Brexit/Single Market membership the sub editing is especially chilling.

    I hope Paul from Bedfordshire realises that he is in this category...
    All part of the murdoch department of pscho-ops against Brussels negotiators dear fellow. Unless they really believe we would walk out on them and go WTO then they wont see sense.

    Unions have done it for a century - other than those who used their members as political cannon fodder like Scargill.

    Pound falling, Tory support rising and remainers squealing like stuck pigs is just the message we want them to see.
    yup, if all the bad news is factored in, theres nothing to lose.
    As Lenin said

    "The worse, the better"

    Alas, when the Russian people thought it could get no worse, it did.
    Were nowhere near that, we could have PM Jezza or Ed. Now that's bad news.
    There's a direct path from Brexit to having such a PM. We came to a fork in the road and took it.
    the path if there is one is the 70% of MPs who couldnt, or couldnt be bothered, to engage with their constituents. They failed, they lost and now they're whingeing in the hope someone notices.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,005

    Ishmael_X said:

    This is a much better version of story I posted yesterday on post Brexit Homophobic attacks. The article makes clear the figures are based on GALOP's own figures. So a single source of limited data. However it adds to the picture. It seemed to violate a small number of Leaver's safe space yesterday so I'm posting the improved version.

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/oct/08/homophobic-attacks-double-after-brexit-vote?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

    "The number of homophobic attacks more than doubled in the three months after the Brexit vote, with toxicity fostered by the EU referendum debate spreading beyond race and religion, new figures suggest."

    Post hoc ergo propter hoc is a fallacy, not an argument.
    I think correlation is not causation is the phrase?
    I can entirely believe that passions ran high, round about June 23rd. But, that spike in violence seems to have dissipated.
  • Options
    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Ishmael_X said:

    This is a much better version of story I posted yesterday on post Brexit Homophobic attacks. The article makes clear the figures are based on GALOP's own figures. So a single source of limited data. However it adds to the picture. It seemed to violate a small number of Leaver's safe space yesterday so I'm posting the improved version.

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/oct/08/homophobic-attacks-double-after-brexit-vote?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

    "The number of homophobic attacks more than doubled in the three months after the Brexit vote, with toxicity fostered by the EU referendum debate spreading beyond race and religion, new figures suggest."

    Post hoc ergo propter hoc is a fallacy, not an argument.
    I agree. I think we need to add it to the pile though. When we've more data and hopefully Hate Crime reporting falls back to trend ( it may already have done ) then the academics can get to work. Though if you look at Police Domestic Abuse campains during major international football competitions to give one example the sociological link between crime and culture is hardly new.
    But I don't see where it takes us. I assume people are made more hate-filled by losing than winning, so a Bremain vote would have made things even worse. So the only conclusion we can draw is that having a referendum at all was a mistake, and we knew that anyway.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Here comes what I predicted would happen to NeverTrump'ers after Trump's debate victory:

    https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/785548885351542784
    https://twitter.com/AprilDRyan/status/785550828971102209
    https://twitter.com/KateNocera/status/785520415477080064
    https://twitter.com/KatrinaPierson/status/785545902236831744

    Trump republicans are refusing to vote for NeverTrump republicans.
    When dumping a party leader you must never appear to be backstabbing him.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,162
    RobD said:

    I see today's Sun uses the phrase " the Enemy within " in the headline over Trevor Kavanagh's oped on Brexit ( who to his credit doesn't use it in his article. As Kavanagh was targeting those fighting for Soft Brexit/Single Market membership the sub editing is especially chilling.

    I hope Paul from Bedfordshire realises that he is in this category...
    All part of the murdoch department of pscho-ops against Brussels negotiators dear fellow. Unless they really believe we would walk out on them and go WTO then they wont see sense.

    Unions have done it for a century - other than those who used their members as political cannon fodder like Scargill.

    Pound falling, Tory support rising and remainers squealing like stuck pigs is just the message we want them to see.
    yup, if all the bad news is factored in, theres nothing to lose.
    As Lenin said

    "The worse, the better"

    Alas, when the Russian people thought it could get no worse, it did.
    Were nowhere near that, we could have PM Jezza or Ed. Now that's bad news.
    There's a direct path from Brexit to having such a PM. We came to a fork in the road and took it.
    I take it you haven't seen the latest poll? ;)
    In 1992 the Conservatives went from 45% to 29% with ICM in the space of a year. Wait for the Brexit equivalent of Black Wednesday.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Speedy said:

    Here comes what I predicted would happen to NeverTrump'ers after Trump's debate victory:

    https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/785548885351542784
    https://twitter.com/AprilDRyan/status/785550828971102209
    https://twitter.com/KateNocera/status/785520415477080064
    https://twitter.com/KatrinaPierson/status/785545902236831744

    Trump republicans are refusing to vote for NeverTrump republicans.
    When dumping a party leader you must never appear to be backstabbing him.

    It will be useful for President Clinton to get support in Congress from their replacements.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    RobD said:

    I see today's Sun uses the phrase " the Enemy within " in the headline over Trevor Kavanagh's oped on Brexit ( who to his credit doesn't use it in his article. As Kavanagh was targeting those fighting for Soft Brexit/Single Market membership the sub editing is especially chilling.

    I hope Paul from Bedfordshire realises that he is in this category...
    All part of the murdoch department of pscho-ops against Brussels negotiators dear fellow. Unless they really believe we would walk out on them and go WTO then they wont see sense.

    Unions have done it for a century - other than those who used their members as political cannon fodder like Scargill.

    Pound falling, Tory support rising and remainers squealing like stuck pigs is just the message we want them to see.
    yup, if all the bad news is factored in, theres nothing to lose.
    As Lenin said

    "The worse, the better"

    Alas, when the Russian people thought it could get no worse, it did.
    Were nowhere near that, we could have PM Jezza or Ed. Now that's bad news.
    There's a direct path from Brexit to having such a PM. We came to a fork in the road and took it.
    I take it you haven't seen the latest poll? ;)
    In 1992 the Conservatives went from 45% to 29% with ICM in the space of a year. Wait for the Brexit equivalent of Black Wednesday.
    I really hope so. Black Wednesday laid the foundations for a decade of growth and recovery.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,162
    Speedy said:

    Here comes what I predicted would happen to NeverTrump'ers after Trump's debate victory:

    Trump republicans are refusing to vote for NeverTrump republicans.
    When dumping a party leader you must never appear to be backstabbing him.

    NY Times has the same angle.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/11/us/politics/republican-reaction-trump.html

    'For G.O.P. Candidates, Renouncing Donald Trump Risks Fatal Blowback'
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,300
    edited October 2016
    The Donald is tweeting the results of voodoo polls (again) claiming his victory in the debate. Is also going on some rant about CNN fixing their focus group.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,162
    edited October 2016

    RobD said:

    I see today's Sun uses the phrase " the Enemy within " in the headline over Trevor Kavanagh's oped on Brexit ( who to his credit doesn't use it in his article. As Kavanagh was targeting those fighting for Soft Brexit/Single Market membership the sub editing is especially chilling.

    I hope Paul from Bedfordshire realises that he is in this category...
    All part of the murdoch department of pscho-ops against Brussels negotiators dear fellow. Unless they really believe we would walk out on them and go WTO then they wont see sense.

    Unions have done it for a century - other than those who used their members as political cannon fodder like Scargill.

    Pound falling, Tory support rising and remainers squealing like stuck pigs is just the message we want them to see.
    yup, if all the bad news is factored in, theres nothing to lose.
    As Lenin said

    "The worse, the better"

    Alas, when the Russian people thought it could get no worse, it did.
    Were nowhere near that, we could have PM Jezza or Ed. Now that's bad news.
    There's a direct path from Brexit to having such a PM. We came to a fork in the road and took it.
    I take it you haven't seen the latest poll? ;)
    In 1992 the Conservatives went from 45% to 29% with ICM in the space of a year. Wait for the Brexit equivalent of Black Wednesday.
    I really hope so. Black Wednesday laid the foundations for a decade of growth and recovery.
    For the economy yes; for the Tories, not so much.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    RobD said:

    I see today's Sun uses the phrase " the Enemy within " in the headline over Trevor Kavanagh's oped on Brexit ( who to his credit doesn't use it in his article. As Kavanagh was targeting those fighting for Soft Brexit/Single Market membership the sub editing is especially chilling.

    I hope Paul from Bedfordshire realises that he is in this category...
    All part of the murdoch department of pscho-ops against Brussels negotiators dear fellow. Unless they really believe we would walk out on them and go WTO then they wont see sense.

    Unions have done it for a century - other than those who used their members as political cannon fodder like Scargill.

    Pound falling, Tory support rising and remainers squealing like stuck pigs is just the message we want them to see.
    yup, if all the bad news is factored in, theres nothing to lose.
    As Lenin said

    "The worse, the better"

    Alas, when the Russian people thought it could get no worse, it did.
    Were nowhere near that, we could have PM Jezza or Ed. Now that's bad news.
    There's a direct path from Brexit to having such a PM. We came to a fork in the road and took it.
    I take it you haven't seen the latest poll? ;)
    In 1992 the Conservatives went from 45% to 29% with ICM in the space of a year. Wait for the Brexit equivalent of Black Wednesday.
    Since we are not in the ERM or any other fixed exchange rate, a Black Wednesday will never happen again.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    RobD said:

    I see today's Sun uses the phrase " the Enemy within " in the headline over Trevor Kavanagh's oped on Brexit ( who to his credit doesn't use it in his article. As Kavanagh was targeting those fighting for Soft Brexit/Single Market membership the sub editing is especially chilling.

    I hope Paul from Bedfordshire realises that he is in this category...
    All part of the murdoch department of pscho-ops against Brussels negotiators dear fellow. Unless they really believe we would walk out on them and go WTO then they wont see sense.

    Unions have done it for a century - other than those who used their members as political cannon fodder like Scargill.

    Pound falling, Tory support rising and remainers squealing like stuck pigs is just the message we want them to see.
    yup, if all the bad news is factored in, theres nothing to lose.
    As Lenin said

    "The worse, the better"

    Alas, when the Russian people thought it could get no worse, it did.
    Were nowhere near that, we could have PM Jezza or Ed. Now that's bad news.
    There's a direct path from Brexit to having such a PM. We came to a fork in the road and took it.
    I take it you haven't seen the latest poll? ;)
    In 1992 the Conservatives went from 45% to 29% with ICM in the space of a year. Wait for the Brexit equivalent of Black Wednesday.
    I really hope so. Black Wednesday laid the foundations for a decade of growth and recovery.
    For the economy yes; for the Tories, not so much.
    personally I care more for the well being of the nation than the Tory party

    maybe you should try it.
  • Options
    Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited October 2016

    Caught up with yesterday's Mail on Sunday ( who backed Remain ) lots of pro Hammond/ anti three Brexiteers briefing. Sections of the finance section where very bearish on what the devaluation means for 2017. It usually takes a government several years to get to this level of intra party war. We're less than a 100 days in. Though arguably it's borne out of strength given the state Labour is in.

    Osborne and his gophers are more than outnumbered by the Democratic Unionists.
    The new barstewards of the Tory party? Morgan, Soubry, Osborne etc
    The original Bastards were so dangerous because most of the Tory party membership were of much the same view.

    Bastards 2.0 only have most of the Lib Dem membership behind them so Theresa wont be too troubled.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,162

    RobD said:

    I see today's Sun uses the phrase " the Enemy within " in the headline over Trevor Kavanagh's oped on Brexit ( who to his credit doesn't use it in his article. As Kavanagh was targeting those fighting for Soft Brexit/Single Market membership the sub editing is especially chilling.

    I hope Paul from Bedfordshire realises that he is in this category...
    All part of the murdoch department of pscho-ops against Brussels negotiators dear fellow. Unless they really believe we would walk out on them and go WTO then they wont see sense.

    Unions have done it for a century - other than those who used their members as political cannon fodder like Scargill.

    Pound falling, Tory support rising and remainers squealing like stuck pigs is just the message we want them to see.
    yup, if all the bad news is factored in, theres nothing to lose.
    As Lenin said

    "The worse, the better"

    Alas, when the Russian people thought it could get no worse, it did.
    Were nowhere near that, we could have PM Jezza or Ed. Now that's bad news.
    There's a direct path from Brexit to having such a PM. We came to a fork in the road and took it.
    I take it you haven't seen the latest poll? ;)
    In 1992 the Conservatives went from 45% to 29% with ICM in the space of a year. Wait for the Brexit equivalent of Black Wednesday.
    I really hope so. Black Wednesday laid the foundations for a decade of growth and recovery.
    For the economy yes; for the Tories, not so much.
    personally I care more for the well being of the nation than the Tory party

    maybe you should try it.
    The former precludes cheering actions which will help Corbyn into Downing Street.
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    Just catching up on the ICM. New Labour '97 to '05 proves governing parties can function as their own opposition AND win landslide victories if the official opposition books its self into digitas. This situation is even worse for the left. At least in '05 there was a viable centre left alternative under Chaz Kennedy. Today UKIP are still polling in third place. It's difficult to believe so much of the goes back to ' Charity ' nominations of Corbyn by Labour MP's and before that political fratricide by the younger Miliband. I used to argue individual personalities didn't matter much in History. Now I'm for Chaos Theory.

    I tend to the view that what we are really seeing is the consequences of 2008 and the dawning realisation that an economy based on ever higher "investment" by our public sector is doomed to a terrible failure.

    In a world where promising higher public spending is generally met with derision the Left have yet to find a purpose and are wandering aimlessly complaining pointlessly about every cut and freeze in spending. Corbyn might accelerate the trend to irrelevance somewhat but the trend was there as Ed showed all too clearly.

    Can we find a new, smaller state left wingism, focussed on inequality in all its aspects? Not so far.
    I broadly agree with you. I'm quit curious about Scruton's oikophillia which seems ripe for a left reframing. It would certainly be less damaging than the decent into cultural Nationalism we're seeing with the SNP/Lexit etc etc.The left also won't embrace a decarbonisation culture that celebrates saver/investors and White Van man. It won't shift public spending from services to infrastructure. It also won't focus on the nation state's and/or supranational role in refereeing glbalsed capital flows because doing so doesn't involve spending lots of money. It also won't embrace orthopraxis along side orthodoxy. This betrays it's roots in self help movements and ignores modern phenomena like ethical consumerism or small g environmentalism.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    RobD said:

    I see today's Sun uses the phrase " the Enemy within " in the headline over Trevor Kavanagh's oped on Brexit ( who to his credit doesn't use it in his article. As Kavanagh was targeting those fighting for Soft Brexit/Single Market membership the sub editing is especially chilling.

    I hope Paul from Bedfordshire realises that he is in this category...
    All part of the murdoch department of pscho-ops against Brussels negotiators dear fellow. Unless they really believe we would walk out on them and go WTO then they wont see sense.

    Unions have done it for a century - other than those who used their members as political cannon fodder like Scargill.

    Pound falling, Tory support rising and remainers squealing like stuck pigs is just the message we want them to see.
    yup, if all the bad news is factored in, theres nothing to lose.
    As Lenin said

    "The worse, the better"

    Alas, when the Russian people thought it could get no worse, it did.
    Were nowhere near that, we could have PM Jezza or Ed. Now that's bad news.
    There's a direct path from Brexit to having such a PM. We came to a fork in the road and took it.
    I take it you haven't seen the latest poll? ;)
    In 1992 the Conservatives went from 45% to 29% with ICM in the space of a year. Wait for the Brexit equivalent of Black Wednesday.
    I really hope so. Black Wednesday laid the foundations for a decade of growth and recovery.
    For the economy yes; for the Tories, not so much.
    personally I care more for the well being of the nation than the Tory party

    maybe you should try it.
    The former precludes cheering actions which will help Corbyn into Downing Street.
    you appear to be posting one-handed as you peddle your gloom.
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Mortimer said:

    DavidL said:

    If remainers really want a moan surely David Davis said something really stupid today. I mean, he was talking so he must have done.

    Not his biggest fan, but he was on form today.

    Really? Does that mean he got through a statement without saying anything that will not need " clarified" or said to be his own personal opinion by tomorrow? Remarkable.
    No, he was as poor as always, the government had to clarify his statements afterwards. Hopefully TMay gets rid, Dominic Raab needs a promotion.
    The problem with that is that the one she really needs to get rid of is Liam Fox who is positively dangerous. Losing 2 Brexiteers would look careless and might well result in David Davis hanging on for longer than his talent merits.
    I expect next year or the year after when Liam & co has spent a year or two globetrotting and got disheartened and she has got a half decent offer on free movement, but short of what the right want, she will be in quite a good position to, say its not all we want but lets accept this for ten years. We can do trade deals at our leisure and leave the decision on EEA until then.

  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2016

    Speedy said:

    Here comes what I predicted would happen to NeverTrump'ers after Trump's debate victory:

    Trump republicans are refusing to vote for NeverTrump republicans.
    When dumping a party leader you must never appear to be backstabbing him.

    NY Times has the same angle.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/11/us/politics/republican-reaction-trump.html

    'For G.O.P. Candidates, Renouncing Donald Trump Risks Fatal Blowback'
    It was a mistake for the NeverTrump's to denounce Trump before the debate, there was a small chance that he could have won it and he did, NeverTrump screwed it's timing.
    The smartest republicans waited to see the debate first.

    Now they are stuck between republicans that accuse them of treason and the democrats who want to beat them.

    NeverTrump is as screwed as the LD's or Labour moderates.
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    Ishmael_X said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    This is a much better version of story I posted yesterday on post Brexit Homophobic attacks. The article makes clear the figures are based on GALOP's own figures. So a single source of limited data. However it adds to the picture. It seemed to violate a small number of Leaver's safe space yesterday so I'm posting the improved version.

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/oct/08/homophobic-attacks-double-after-brexit-vote?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

    "The number of homophobic attacks more than doubled in the three months after the Brexit vote, with toxicity fostered by the EU referendum debate spreading beyond race and religion, new figures suggest."

    Post hoc ergo propter hoc is a fallacy, not an argument.
    I agree. I think we need to add it to the pile though. When we've more data and hopefully Hate Crime reporting falls back to trend ( it may already have done ) then the academics can get to work. Though if you look at Police Domestic Abuse campains during major international football competitions to give one example the sociological link between crime and culture is hardly new.
    But I don't see where it takes us. I assume people are made more hate-filled by losing than winning, so a Bremain vote would have made things even worse. So the only conclusion we can draw is that having a referendum at all was a mistake, and we knew that anyway.
    I agree it may not take us anywhere. It was only the third national referendum in our history. They aren't frequent enough to practice with. Though I expect this fiasco will ensure we never have another national referendum while any political who members that one is still alive.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I will be placing money on Hilary in Utah. Small stakes only.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    edited October 2016
    probably the most stupid motion for ages- lets tell the other side our negotiating red lines before we start.

    wankers the lot of them
  • Options

    RobD said:

    I see today's Sun uses the phrase " the Enemy within " in the headline over Trevor Kavanagh's oped on Brexit ( who to his credit doesn't use it in his article. As Kavanagh was targeting those fighting for Soft Brexit/Single Market membership the sub editing is especially chilling.

    I hope Paul from Bedfordshire realises that he is in this category...
    All part of the murdoch department of pscho-ops against Brussels negotiators dear fellow. Unless they really believe we would walk out on them and go WTO then they wont see sense.

    Unions have done it for a century - other than those who used their members as political cannon fodder like Scargill.

    Pound falling, Tory support rising and remainers squealing like stuck pigs is just the message we want them to see.
    yup, if all the bad news is factored in, theres nothing to lose.
    As Lenin said

    "The worse, the better"

    Alas, when the Russian people thought it could get no worse, it did.
    Were nowhere near that, we could have PM Jezza or Ed. Now that's bad news.
    There's a direct path from Brexit to having such a PM. We came to a fork in the road and took it.
    I take it you haven't seen the latest poll? ;)
    In 1992 the Conservatives went from 45% to 29% with ICM in the space of a year. Wait for the Brexit equivalent of Black Wednesday.
    We had it on June 24th 2016
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    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Speedy said:

    Here comes what I predicted would happen to NeverTrump'ers after Trump's debate victory:


    Trump republicans are refusing to vote for NeverTrump republicans.
    When dumping a party leader you must never appear to be backstabbing him.

    I'd suggest that the lesson is if you do backstab your leader you better make sure to finish them off.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    probably the most stupid motion for ages- lets tell the other side our negotiating red lines before we start.

    wankers the lot of them
    Democratic scrutiny is so overrated.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    probably the most stupid motion for ages- lets tell the other side our negotiating red lines before we start.

    wankers the lot of them
    Democratic scrutiny is so overrated.
    you never believed in it for the last two decades, so play by our own rules and suck it up

    even funnier though is with UKIP in a death spiral our bien pensant MPs might just be about to throw it a lifeline

    suddenly UKIP has a puropse again

    you couldnt make it up
  • Options
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Here comes what I predicted would happen to NeverTrump'ers after Trump's debate victory:

    Trump republicans are refusing to vote for NeverTrump republicans.
    When dumping a party leader you must never appear to be backstabbing him.

    NY Times has the same angle.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/11/us/politics/republican-reaction-trump.html

    'For G.O.P. Candidates, Renouncing Donald Trump Risks Fatal Blowback'
    It was a mistake for the NeverTrump's to denounce Trump before the debate, there was a small chance that he could have won it and he did, NeverTrump screwed it's timing.
    The smartest republicans waited to see the debate first.

    Now they are stuck between republicans that accuse them of treason and the democrats who want to beat them.

    NeverTrump is as screwed as the LD's or Labour moderates.
    or wet Tories
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    probably the most stupid motion for ages- lets tell the other side our negotiating red lines before we start.

    wankers the lot of them
    Democratic scrutiny is so overrated.
    you never believed in it for the last two decades, so play by our own rules and suck it up

    even funnier though is with UKIP in a death spiral our bien pensant MPs might just be about to throw it a lifeline

    suddenly UKIP has a puropse again

    you couldnt make it up
    Mummy knows best, I'm sure.
  • Options
    As an olive branch to PB rightwingers here's a guardian article analysing Theresa May's clothes. Just as they'd do for a male politician.

    http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2016/oct/10/theresa-mays-wardrobe-decoding-her-brand-management?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    probably the most stupid motion for ages- lets tell the other side our negotiating red lines before we start.

    wankers the lot of them
    Democratic scrutiny is so overrated.
    you never believed in it for the last two decades, so play by our own rules and suck it up

    even funnier though is with UKIP in a death spiral our bien pensant MPs might just be about to throw it a lifeline

    suddenly UKIP has a puropse again

    you couldnt make it up
    Mummy knows best, I'm sure.
    Far too much bile for a drag queen. That requires a sense of humour.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,445
    I think Tyrie has it right. It would be ludicrous and wrong for any MP of any party to attempt to overturn the referendum result.

    But this not showing our cards thing I don't get. First, the EU will work out, and so will we all on Day 1 of negotiations, what it is we want or don't want. Secondly, I find it not quite right that the government would go into negotiations with us having no idea of what they want from them.

    A view I am toying with, however, is that suppose we get Deal A from the EU. There is nothing to stop any other party campaigning for Deal B at the next GE. We will be out of the EU and there is nothing written in stone anywhere that says a trade deal has to be for ever and all time. Ergo, it doesn't really matter what this government wants or gets in its trade deals today. I appreciate this view would keep lawyers and negotiators in Bentley Mulsannes for decades to come, and probably fuck our businesses and the people of Sunderland for the same time, but I am looking at the politics of it.
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Caught up with yesterday's Mail on Sunday ( who backed Remain ) lots of pro Hammond/ anti three Brexiteers briefing. Sections of the finance section where very bearish on what the devaluation means for 2017. It usually takes a government several years to get to this level of intra party war. We're less than a 100 days in. Though arguably it's borne out of strength given the state Labour is in.

    Osborne and his gophers are more than outnumbered by the Democratic Unionists.
    The new barstewards of the Tory party? Morgan, Soubry, Osborne etc
    The original Bastards were so dangerous because most of the Tory party membership were of much the same view.

    Bastards 2.0 only have most of the Lib Dem membership behind them so Theresa wont be too troubled.
    The 90s troublemakers could also exploit Major's tiny, and eventually almost vanished, majority.

    Theresa May, on the other hand, can summon the help of the DUP, Carswell and the Labour Brexiteers (of whom there are at least eight) to deal with the opposition to Brexit. This gives the Government an effective starting majority of about 50 on this issue, before we begin counting off any potential Tory rebels.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    edited October 2016
    TOPPING said:

    I think Tyrie has it right. It would be ludicrous and wrong for any MP of any party to attempt to overturn the referendum result.

    But this not showing our cards thing I don't get. First, the EU will work out, and so will we all on Day 1 of negotiations, what it is we want or don't want. Secondly, I find it not quite right that the government would go into negotiations with us having no idea of what they want from them.

    A view I am toying with, however, is that suppose we get Deal A from the EU. There is nothing to stop any other party campaigning for Deal B at the next GE. We will be out of the EU and there is nothing written in stone anywhere that says a trade deal has to be for ever and all time. Ergo, it doesn't really matter what this government wants or gets in its trade deals today. I appreciate this view would keep lawyers and negotiators in Bentley Mulsannes for decades to come, and probably fuck our businesses and the people of Sunderland for the same time, but I am looking at the politics of it.

    HMG signed the Lisbon Treaty in the unusual circumstances that not only did the electorate not know what was in it but the Minister responsible - Caroline Flint - claimed she didnt know what was in it either.

  • Options
    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited October 2016
    @AlastairMeeks

    'Democratic scrutiny is so overrated.'

    Or how to try to trash the Brexit negotiations by sore losers.

  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    john_zims said:

    @AlastairMeeks

    'Democratic scrutiny is so overrated.'

    Or how to try to trash the Brexit negotiations by sore losers.

    Rather than give the remainers a sympathy fk we should take note of how the idiots of Labour handed their party over to Jezza.

    Ignore them and press on.
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    YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    edited October 2016
    Detailed parliamentary scrutiny of Brexit is hoping for a necessity from virtue. The Commons can't block Brexit unless voters change their minds. So far the evidence shows they haven't changed their minds. Slowing Brexit down via proper scrutiny gives time for something to come up under cover of doing absolutely the right thing.
  • Options
    RoyalBlue said:

    probably the most stupid motion for ages- lets tell the other side our negotiating red lines before we start.

    wankers the lot of them
    Democratic scrutiny is so overrated.
    you never believed in it for the last two decades, so play by our own rules and suck it up

    even funnier though is with UKIP in a death spiral our bien pensant MPs might just be about to throw it a lifeline

    suddenly UKIP has a puropse again

    you couldnt make it up
    Mummy knows best, I'm sure.
    Far too much bile for a drag queen. That requires a sense of humour.
    Good to hear the view of an expert on this matter.
  • Options
    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Alanbrooke

    'HMG signed the Lisbon Treaty in the unusual circumstances that not only did the electorate not know what was in it but the Minister responsible - Caroline Flint - claimed she didnt know what was in it either.'

    It was quite acceptable to renege on the referendum promised for the EU constitution / Lisbon agreement but now we must have the democratic scrutiny crap.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,099

    I see today's Sun uses the phrase " the Enemy within " in the headline over Trevor Kavanagh's oped on Brexit ( who to his credit doesn't use it in his article. As Kavanagh was targeting those fighting for Soft Brexit/Single Market membership the sub editing is especially chilling.

    I hope Paul from Bedfordshire realises that he is in this category...
    All part of the murdoch department of pscho-ops against Brussels negotiators dear fellow. Unless they really believe we would walk out on them and go WTO then they wont see sense.

    Unions have done it for a century - other than those who used their members as political cannon fodder like Scargill.

    Pound falling, Tory support rising and remainers squealing like stuck pigs is just the message we want them to see.
    yup, if all the bad news is factored in, theres nothing to lose.
    As Lenin said

    "The worse, the better"

    Alas, when the Russian people thought it could get no worse, it did.
    You must read Geoffrey Parker's Global Crisis: War, Climate Change and Catastrophe. It's a look at the Seventeenth Century, during a period called The Mini Ice Age.

    Low temperatures caused poor harvests. Which caused the peasantry to revolt, believing things could be no worse.

    But, of course, things got a lot worse. Revolts and civil war caused far worse damage to the peasantry than poor harvests alone.

    It is a salutory reminder that tearing down the existing social order does not always cause the desired effect.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,445

    Detailed parliamentary scrutiny of Brexit is hoping for a necessity from virtue. The Commons can't block Brexit unless voters change there minds. So far the evidence shows they haven't changed their minds. Slowing Brexit down via proper scrutiny gives time for something to come up under cover of doing absolutely the right thing.

    No sane person should want to overturn the decision. If nothing else, the deal we would get would be infinitely inferior to Dave's plus we would be outvoted on anything and everything. They would take our money, do what they wanted, ignore us and say "what are you going to do about it?" If we complain.

    The best we can hope for is the PB Leavers' favoured EEA-type deal. This IMO places us at a disadvantage to the status quo ante (ECJ jurisdiction, etc) but won't be too economically damaging. It will of course not transpire not only because of FOM but also because of that ECJ bit.

    So hard brexit it is. Doesn't, as I mentioned previously, stop A N Other party from campaigning to soften it.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,445
    john_zims said:

    @Alanbrooke

    'HMG signed the Lisbon Treaty in the unusual circumstances that not only did the electorate not know what was in it but the Minister responsible - Caroline Flint - claimed she didnt know what was in it either.'

    It was quite acceptable to renege on the referendum promised for the EU constitution / Lisbon agreement but now we must have the democratic scrutiny crap.

    It had already been signed.
  • Options
    john_zims said:

    @Alanbrooke

    'HMG signed the Lisbon Treaty in the unusual circumstances that not only did the electorate not know what was in it but the Minister responsible - Caroline Flint - claimed she didnt know what was in it either.'

    It was quite acceptable to renege on the referendum promised for the EU constitution / Lisbon agreement but now we must have the democratic scrutiny crap.

    Yes ! It's the St Augustine strategy. " Oh Lord, give us Brexit. But not yet. " It's what we have left.
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    The Donald is tweeting the results of voodoo polls (again) claiming his victory in the debate. Is also going on some rant about CNN fixing their focus group.

    You mean the fact that the focus group was 58% declared democrats?

    Anyway there should be lots of polls in the USA mainstream media - if you can find them.
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @TOPPING

    'It had already been signed.'

    Wrong, we were told we would have a referendum on the EU constitution,this was voted down by France & Holland before we had a chance to vote.

    The EU then changed the name of the document (not the contents) to the Lisbon treaty and Brown signed it without a referendum.

    So much for democracy.

  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    rcs1000 said:

    I see today's Sun uses the phrase " the Enemy within " in the headline over Trevor Kavanagh's oped on Brexit ( who to his credit doesn't use it in his article. As Kavanagh was targeting those fighting for Soft Brexit/Single Market membership the sub editing is especially chilling.

    I hope Paul from Bedfordshire realises that he is in this category...
    All part of the murdoch department of pscho-ops against Brussels negotiators dear fellow. Unless they really believe we would walk out on them and go WTO then they wont see sense.

    Unions have done it for a century - other than those who used their members as political cannon fodder like Scargill.

    Pound falling, Tory support rising and remainers squealing like stuck pigs is just the message we want them to see.
    yup, if all the bad news is factored in, theres nothing to lose.
    As Lenin said

    "The worse, the better"

    Alas, when the Russian people thought it could get no worse, it did.
    You must read Geoffrey Parker's Global Crisis: War, Climate Change and Catastrophe. It's a look at the Seventeenth Century, during a period called The Mini Ice Age.

    Low temperatures caused poor harvests. Which caused the peasantry to revolt, believing things could be no worse.

    But, of course, things got a lot worse. Revolts and civil war caused far worse damage to the peasantry than poor harvests alone.

    It is a salutory reminder that tearing down the existing social order does not always cause the desired effect.
    As the Syrians could tell you today. History has a tendency to repeat.
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    538 Latest Projections - Clinton/Trump :

    Polls Plus - 79.8 - 20.2
    Polls Only - 83.6 - 16.4
    Now Cast - 87.7 - 12.3

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#now

    So you're telling me there is a chance? :D
    I think you're groping in the dark ... as some are want to do .... :sunglasses:
    And others went further - and their victims were banned from attending the debate.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    I see today's Sun uses the phrase " the Enemy within " in the headline over Trevor Kavanagh's oped on Brexit ( who to his credit doesn't use it in his article. As Kavanagh was targeting those fighting for Soft Brexit/Single Market membership the sub editing is especially chilling.

    I hope Paul from Bedfordshire realises that he is in this category...
    All part of the murdoch department of pscho-ops against Brussels negotiators dear fellow. Unless they really believe we would walk out on them and go WTO then they wont see sense.

    Unions have done it for a century - other than those who used their members as political cannon fodder like Scargill.

    Pound falling, Tory support rising and remainers squealing like stuck pigs is just the message we want them to see.
    yup, if all the bad news is factored in, theres nothing to lose.
    As Lenin said

    "The worse, the better"

    Alas, when the Russian people thought it could get no worse, it did.
    You must read Geoffrey Parker's Global Crisis: War, Climate Change and Catastrophe. It's a look at the Seventeenth Century, during a period called The Mini Ice Age.

    Low temperatures caused poor harvests. Which caused the peasantry to revolt, believing things could be no worse.

    But, of course, things got a lot worse. Revolts and civil war caused far worse damage to the peasantry than poor harvests alone.

    It is a salutory reminder that tearing down the existing social order does not always cause the desired effect.
    Lots of demand for horses though, which gave my family their start in business :)
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TOPPING said:

    john_zims said:

    @Alanbrooke

    'HMG signed the Lisbon Treaty in the unusual circumstances that not only did the electorate not know what was in it but the Minister responsible - Caroline Flint - claimed she didnt know what was in it either.'

    It was quite acceptable to renege on the referendum promised for the EU constitution / Lisbon agreement but now we must have the democratic scrutiny crap.

    It had already been signed.
    I think he was referring to the promise on the EU Constitution not Cameron's cast iron pledge
  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    May has the numbers to force Article 50 through the Commons. If the Lords or the courts attempt to block it, she has the perfect excuse for an election.

    Does anybody seriously think she would win other than a crushing victory?
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,005
    There's a bit of a feeling of

    rcs1000 said:

    I see today's Sun uses the phrase " the Enemy within " in the headline over Trevor Kavanagh's oped on Brexit ( who to his credit doesn't use it in his article. As Kavanagh was targeting those fighting for Soft Brexit/Single Market membership the sub editing is especially chilling.

    I hope Paul from Bedfordshire realises that he is in this category...
    All part of the murdoch department of pscho-ops against Brussels negotiators dear fellow. Unless they really believe we would walk out on them and go WTO then they wont see sense.

    Unions have done it for a century - other than those who used their members as political cannon fodder like Scargill.

    Pound falling, Tory support rising and remainers squealing like stuck pigs is just the message we want them to see.
    yup, if all the bad news is factored in, theres nothing to lose.
    As Lenin said

    "The worse, the better"

    Alas, when the Russian people thought it could get no worse, it did.
    You must read Geoffrey Parker's Global Crisis: War, Climate Change and Catastrophe. It's a look at the Seventeenth Century, during a period called The Mini Ice Age.

    Low temperatures caused poor harvests. Which caused the peasantry to revolt, believing things could be no worse.

    But, of course, things got a lot worse. Revolts and civil war caused far worse damage to the peasantry than poor harvests alone.

    It is a salutory reminder that tearing down the existing social order does not always cause the desired effect.
    As the Syrians could tell you today. History has a tendency to repeat.
    It always does. We move in cycles of progress and decline. One day, the executioner and the torture chamber will return to Western Europe.
  • Options
    TOPPING said:

    Detailed parliamentary scrutiny of Brexit is hoping for a necessity from virtue. The Commons can't block Brexit unless voters change there minds. So far the evidence shows they haven't changed their minds. Slowing Brexit down via proper scrutiny gives time for something to come up under cover of doing absolutely the right thing.

    No sane person should want to overturn the decision. If nothing else, the deal we would get would be infinitely inferior to Dave's plus we would be outvoted on anything and everything. They would take our money, do what they wanted, ignore us and say "what are you going to do about it?" If we complain.

    The best we can hope for is the PB Leavers' favoured EEA-type deal. This IMO places us at a disadvantage to the status quo ante (ECJ jurisdiction, etc) but won't be too economically damaging. It will of course not transpire not only because of FOM but also because of that ECJ bit.

    So hard brexit it is. Doesn't, as I mentioned previously, stop A N Other party from campaigning to soften it.
    I agree that as Cameron's deal has been formally voided remaining in now would be on ' worse ' terms than rejected in the referendum. I also agree it would be a temporary national humiliation which would require a new PM in short order. As for the rest... #1 I just have a more positive view of our success in having the best of both worlds in the EU. #2 We choose to ignore all sorts of reverses. Or at least use displacement activity. Has the Afghan and Iraq fiasco's undermined Trident renewal ?

    I'm fairly certain the Railways of August have left the station on Brexit. I'm just saying proper scrutiny gives time for " something to come up " and at this stage delay is all europhile have left.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,099
    john_zims said:

    @TOPPING

    'It had already been signed.'

    Wrong, we were told we would have a referendum on the EU constitution,this was voted down by France & Holland before we had a chance to vote.

    The EU then changed the name of the document (not the contents) to the Lisbon treaty and Brown signed it without a referendum.

    So much for democracy.

    By the time the Conservatives came to power, the treaty was already ratified, and therefore it was in force. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ratification_of_the_Treaty_of_Lisbon

    At the point at which it was ratified by all parties and had gone into force, there was no going back (only leaving). Anyone who told you anything different was lying.
  • Options
    Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited October 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    I see today's Sun uses the phrase " the Enemy within " in the headline over Trevor Kavanagh's oped on Brexit ( who to his credit doesn't use it in his article. As Kavanagh was targeting those fighting for Soft Brexit/Single Market membership the sub editing is especially chilling.

    I hope Paul from Bedfordshire realises that he is in this category...
    All part of the murdoch department of pscho-ops against Brussels negotiators dear fellow. Unless they really believe we would walk out on them and go WTO then they wont see sense.

    Unions have done it for a century - other than those who used their members as political cannon fodder like Scargill.

    Pound falling, Tory support rising and remainers squealing like stuck pigs is just the message we want them to see.
    yup, if all the bad news is factored in, theres nothing to lose.
    As Lenin said

    "The worse, the better"

    Alas, when the Russian people thought it could get no worse, it did.
    You must read Geoffrey Parker's Global Crisis: War, Climate Change and Catastrophe. It's a look at the Seventeenth Century, during a period called The Mini Ice Age.

    Low temperatures caused poor harvests. Which caused the peasantry to revolt, believing things could be no worse.

    But, of course, things got a lot worse. Revolts and civil war caused far worse damage to the peasantry than poor harvests alone.

    It is a salutory reminder that tearing down the existing social order does not always cause the desired effect.
    On the other hand, we in England in the Seventeenth Century had a civil war and Glorious Revolution that established Parliament as sovereign and declared:

    No foreign prince, person, prelate, state, or potentate hath, or ought to have, any jurisdiction, power, superiority, pre-eminence, or authority, ecclesiastical or spiritual, within this realm.

    Followed by unheard of growth and prosperity.

    This year the voters gloriously upheld this principle.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,445

    TOPPING said:

    Detailed parliamentary scrutiny of Brexit is hoping for a necessity from virtue. The Commons can't block Brexit unless voters change there minds. So far the evidence shows they haven't changed their minds. Slowing Brexit down via proper scrutiny gives time for something to come up under cover of doing absolutely the right thing.

    No sane person should want to overturn the decision. If nothing else, the deal we would get would be infinitely inferior to Dave's plus we would be outvoted on anything and everything. They would take our money, do what they wanted, ignore us and say "what are you going to do about it?" If we complain.

    The best we can hope for is the PB Leavers' favoured EEA-type deal. This IMO places us at a disadvantage to the status quo ante (ECJ jurisdiction, etc) but won't be too economically damaging. It will of course not transpire not only because of FOM but also because of that ECJ bit.

    So hard brexit it is. Doesn't, as I mentioned previously, stop A N Other party from campaigning to soften it.
    I agree that as Cameron's deal has been formally voided remaining in now would be on ' worse ' terms than rejected in the referendum. I also agree it would be a temporary national humiliation which would require a new PM in short order. As for the rest... #1 I just have a more positive view of our success in having the best of both worlds in the EU. #2 We choose to ignore all sorts of reverses. Or at least use displacement activity. Has the Afghan and Iraq fiasco's undermined Trident renewal ?

    I'm fairly certain the Railways of August have left the station on Brexit. I'm just saying proper scrutiny gives time for " something to come up " and at this stage delay is all europhile have left.
    The known unknown is what the EU27 concede on FOM. I have no feel for it so can't say I am optimistic or pessimistic.
  • Options
    Sean_F said:

    There's a bit of a feeling of

    rcs1000 said:

    I see today's Sun uses the phrase " the Enemy within " in the headline over Trevor Kavanagh's oped on Brexit ( who to his credit doesn't use it in his article. As Kavanagh was targeting those fighting for Soft Brexit/Single Market membership the sub editing is especially chilling.

    I hope Paul from Bedfordshire realises that he is in this category...
    All part of the murdoch department of pscho-ops against Brussels negotiators dear fellow. Unless they really believe we would walk out on them and go WTO then they wont see sense.

    Unions have done it for a century - other than those who used their members as political cannon fodder like Scargill.

    Pound falling, Tory support rising and remainers squealing like stuck pigs is just the message we want them to see.
    yup, if all the bad news is factored in, theres nothing to lose.
    As Lenin said

    "The worse, the better"

    Alas, when the Russian people thought it could get no worse, it did.
    You must read Geoffrey Parker's Global Crisis: War, Climate Change and Catastrophe. It's a look at the Seventeenth Century, during a period called The Mini Ice Age.

    Low temperatures caused poor harvests. Which caused the peasantry to revolt, believing things could be no worse.

    But, of course, things got a lot worse. Revolts and civil war caused far worse damage to the peasantry than poor harvests alone.

    It is a salutory reminder that tearing down the existing social order does not always cause the desired effect.
    As the Syrians could tell you today. History has a tendency to repeat.
    It always does. We move in cycles of progress and decline. One day, the executioner and the torture chamber will return to Western Europe.
    Arguably the latter already has thanks to Blair and Bush.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,099
    edited October 2016

    On the other hand, we in England in the Seventeenth Century had a civil war and Glorious Revolution that established Parliament as sovereign and declared:

    No foreign prince, person, prelate, state, or potentate hath, or ought to have, any jurisdiction, power, superiority, pre-eminence, or authority, ecclesiastical or spiritual, within this realm.

    Followed by unheard of growth and prosperity.

    This year the voters gloriously upheld this principle.

    The period was rather less pleasant for the Chinese, the Turks, the French, the Spanish, the Germans, etc. etc.

    But, yes, Britain left the Seventeenth Century a constitutional monarchy. Other countries were less lucky. Rolling the revolution dice sometime results in a six. And sometimes you end with the Hundred Years War, and sometimes with Louis XIV.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited October 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    On the other hand, we in England in the Seventeenth Century had a civil war and Glorious Revolution that established Parliament as sovereign and declared:

    No foreign prince, person, prelate, state, or potentate hath, or ought to have, any jurisdiction, power, superiority, pre-eminence, or authority, ecclesiastical or spiritual, within this realm.

    Followed by unheard of growth and prosperity.

    This year the voters gloriously upheld this principle.

    The period was rather less pleasant for the Chinese, the Turks, the French, the Spanish, the Germans, etc. etc.

    But, yes, Britain left the Seventeenth Century a constitutional monarchy. Other countries were less lucky. Rolling the revolution dice sometime results in a six. And sometimes you end with the Hundred Years War, and sometimes with Louis XIV.
    And sometimes Stalin or Mao.
  • Options

    TOPPING said:

    Detailed parliamentary scrutiny of Brexit is hoping for a necessity from virtue. The Commons can't block Brexit unless voters change there minds. So far the evidence shows they haven't changed their minds. Slowing Brexit down via proper scrutiny gives time for something to come up under cover of doing absolutely the right thing.

    No sane person should want to overturn the decision. If nothing else, the deal we would get would be infinitely inferior to Dave's plus we would be outvoted on anything and everything. They would take our money, do what they wanted, ignore us and say "what are you going to do about it?" If we complain.

    The best we can hope for is the PB Leavers' favoured EEA-type deal. This IMO places us at a disadvantage to the status quo ante (ECJ jurisdiction, etc) but won't be too economically damaging. It will of course not transpire not only because of FOM but also because of that ECJ bit.

    So hard brexit it is. Doesn't, as I mentioned previously, stop A N Other party from campaigning to soften it.
    I agree that as Cameron's deal has been formally voided remaining in now would be on ' worse ' terms than rejected in the referendum. I also agree it would be a temporary national humiliation which would require a new PM in short order. As for the rest... #1 I just have a more positive view of our success in having the best of both worlds in the EU. #2 We choose to ignore all sorts of reverses. Or at least use displacement activity. Has the Afghan and Iraq fiasco's undermined Trident renewal ?

    I'm fairly certain the Railways of August have left the station on Brexit. I'm just saying proper scrutiny gives time for " something to come up " and at this stage delay is all europhile have left.
    So all you have left is delay in the hope that a bigger national humiliation than Suez will cause us to go crawling back to Brussels with our tails between our legs?
  • Options
    Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited October 2016
    <
  • Options
    Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited October 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    On the other hand, we in England in the Seventeenth Century had a civil war and Glorious Revolution that established Parliament as sovereign and declared:

    No foreign prince, person, prelate, state, or potentate hath, or ought to have, any jurisdiction, power, superiority, pre-eminence, or authority, ecclesiastical or spiritual, within this realm.

    Followed by unheard of growth and prosperity.

    This year the voters gloriously upheld this principle.

    The period was rather less pleasant for the Chinese, the Turks, the French, the Spanish, the Germans, etc. etc.

    But, yes, Britain left the Seventeenth Century a constitutional monarchy. Other countries were less lucky. Rolling the revolution dice sometime results in a six. And sometimes you end with the Hundred Years War, and sometimes with Louis XIV.
    We got it right then and I have every confidence we will get it right now.

    But it is going to be a very different country to that which it would have been if we had stayed. More open and competive. As many like farmers will discover when things like agricultural subisdies are abolished and replaced by free trade in food with Aus NZ and Canada.

    But they will adapt and survive and then thrive, just as NZ farmers did when agricultural subsidies were abolished.

    The new Britain will more resemble that which it would have been if the Tories had won in 1945. That is the scale of this years events.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,162

    rcs1000 said:

    On the other hand, we in England in the Seventeenth Century had a civil war and Glorious Revolution that established Parliament as sovereign and declared:

    No foreign prince, person, prelate, state, or potentate hath, or ought to have, any jurisdiction, power, superiority, pre-eminence, or authority, ecclesiastical or spiritual, within this realm.

    Followed by unheard of growth and prosperity.

    This year the voters gloriously upheld this principle.

    The period was rather less pleasant for the Chinese, the Turks, the French, the Spanish, the Germans, etc. etc.

    But, yes, Britain left the Seventeenth Century a constitutional monarchy. Other countries were less lucky. Rolling the revolution dice sometime results in a six. And sometimes you end with the Hundred Years War, and sometimes with Louis XIV.
    We got it right then and I have every confidence we will get it right now.
    No you don't have every confidence. You think hard Brexit is a bluff.
  • Options
    nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    RoyalBlue said:

    May has the numbers to force Article 50 through the Commons. If the Lords or the courts attempt to block it, she has the perfect excuse for an election.

    Does anybody seriously think she would win other than a crushing victory?

    An election would be high risk for May. It would be difficult to agree what was in the manifesto given the divergence of opinion within the party. She would come under scrutiny herself in the campaign and has no track record of leading election campaigns.

    Does she have the numbers? And what about the backers - surely they are starting to get anxious about the single market status and the anti business rhetoric we saw last week?
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,005

    rcs1000 said:

    On the other hand, we in England in the Seventeenth Century had a civil war and Glorious Revolution that established Parliament as sovereign and declared:

    No foreign prince, person, prelate, state, or potentate hath, or ought to have, any jurisdiction, power, superiority, pre-eminence, or authority, ecclesiastical or spiritual, within this realm.

    Followed by unheard of growth and prosperity.

    This year the voters gloriously upheld this principle.

    The period was rather less pleasant for the Chinese, the Turks, the French, the Spanish, the Germans, etc. etc.

    But, yes, Britain left the Seventeenth Century a constitutional monarchy. Other countries were less lucky. Rolling the revolution dice sometime results in a six. And sometimes you end with the Hundred Years War, and sometimes with Louis XIV.
    We got it right then and I have every confidence we will get it right now.
    I am pessimistic about human nature. I can't say for sure we've got it right. But I'm pretty sure the leaders of the EU have not got it right.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,099

    rcs1000 said:

    On the other hand, we in England in the Seventeenth Century had a civil war and Glorious Revolution that established Parliament as sovereign and declared:

    No foreign prince, person, prelate, state, or potentate hath, or ought to have, any jurisdiction, power, superiority, pre-eminence, or authority, ecclesiastical or spiritual, within this realm.

    Followed by unheard of growth and prosperity.

    This year the voters gloriously upheld this principle.

    The period was rather less pleasant for the Chinese, the Turks, the French, the Spanish, the Germans, etc. etc.

    But, yes, Britain left the Seventeenth Century a constitutional monarchy. Other countries were less lucky. Rolling the revolution dice sometime results in a six. And sometimes you end with the Hundred Years War, and sometimes with Louis XIV.
    We got it right then and I have every confidence we will get it right now.
    I'm confident we made the right choice with Brexit too.

    But what drives me crazy is the complete lack of knowledge of international trade among my fellow Brexiteers; the lack of commitment to free trade in pretty much every other country in the world; and the amount of time taken to negotiate even simple trade deals.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    rcs1000 said:

    On the other hand, we in England in the Seventeenth Century had a civil war and Glorious Revolution that established Parliament as sovereign and declared:

    No foreign prince, person, prelate, state, or potentate hath, or ought to have, any jurisdiction, power, superiority, pre-eminence, or authority, ecclesiastical or spiritual, within this realm.

    Followed by unheard of growth and prosperity.

    This year the voters gloriously upheld this principle.

    The period was rather less pleasant for the Chinese, the Turks, the French, the Spanish, the Germans, etc. etc.

    But, yes, Britain left the Seventeenth Century a constitutional monarchy. Other countries were less lucky. Rolling the revolution dice sometime results in a six. And sometimes you end with the Hundred Years War, and sometimes with Louis XIV.
    We got it right then and I have every confidence we will get it right now.
    No you don't have every confidence. You think hard Brexit is a bluff.
    Hard Brexit is the default outcome, therefore the most likely one. All that is required is no agreement on another deal.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,099
    RoyalBlue said:

    May has the numbers to force Article 50 through the Commons. If the Lords or the courts attempt to block it, she has the perfect excuse for an election.

    Does anybody seriously think she would win other than a crushing victory?

    If it came to a vote, it would be 550 votes to 100. It's a complete red herring.
  • Options

    TOPPING said:

    Detailed parliamentary scrutiny of Brexit is hoping for a necessity from virtue. The Commons can't block Brexit unless voters change there minds. So far the evidence shows they haven't changed their minds. Slowing Brexit down via proper scrutiny gives time for something to come up under cover of doing absolutely the right thing.

    No sane person should want to overturn the decision. If nothing else, the deal we would get would be infinitely inferior to Dave's plus we would be outvoted on anything and everything. They would take our money, do what they wanted, ignore us and say "what are you going to do about it?" If we complain.

    The best we can hope for is the PB Leavers' favoured EEA-type deal. This IMO places us at a disadvantage to the status quo ante (ECJ jurisdiction, etc) but won't be too economically damaging. It will of course not transpire not only because of FOM but also because of that ECJ bit.

    So hard brexit it is. Doesn't, as I mentioned previously, stop A N Other party from campaigning to soften it.
    I agree that as Cameron's deal has been formally voided remaining in now would be on ' worse ' terms than rejected in the referendum. I also agree it would be a temporary national humiliation which would require a new PM in short order. As for the rest... #1 I just have a more positive view of our success in having the best of both worlds in the EU. #2 We choose to ignore all sorts of reverses. Or at least use displacement activity. Has the Afghan and Iraq fiasco's undermined Trident renewal ?

    I'm fairly certain the Railways of August have left the station on Brexit. I'm just saying proper scrutiny gives time for " something to come up " and at this stage delay is all europhile have left.
    So all you have left is delay in the hope that a bigger national humiliation than Suez will cause us to go crawling back to Brussels with our tails between our legs?
    May could have invoked A50 on her first day if she'd wanted to. She's not committed herself to do it for another 5+ months. I'm just suggesting we push the door she's deliberately kept ajar a bit further open in the hope something comes through.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,005
    nielh said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    May has the numbers to force Article 50 through the Commons. If the Lords or the courts attempt to block it, she has the perfect excuse for an election.

    Does anybody seriously think she would win other than a crushing victory?

    An election would be high risk for May. It would be difficult to agree what was in the manifesto given the divergence of opinion within the party. She would come under scrutiny herself in the campaign and has no track record of leading election campaigns.

    Does she have the numbers? And what about the backers - surely they are starting to get anxious about the single market status and the anti business rhetoric we saw last week?
    An election now would see the Conservatives win c.400 seats.
  • Options

    rcs1000 said:

    On the other hand, we in England in the Seventeenth Century had a civil war and Glorious Revolution that established Parliament as sovereign and declared:

    No foreign prince, person, prelate, state, or potentate hath, or ought to have, any jurisdiction, power, superiority, pre-eminence, or authority, ecclesiastical or spiritual, within this realm.

    Followed by unheard of growth and prosperity.

    This year the voters gloriously upheld this principle.

    The period was rather less pleasant for the Chinese, the Turks, the French, the Spanish, the Germans, etc. etc.

    But, yes, Britain left the Seventeenth Century a constitutional monarchy. Other countries were less lucky. Rolling the revolution dice sometime results in a six. And sometimes you end with the Hundred Years War, and sometimes with Louis XIV.
    We got it right then and I have every confidence we will get it right now.
    No you don't have every confidence. You think hard Brexit is a bluff.
    Its an option, not the preferred option but a perfectly viable option if the EU behave like arseholes - which they cant afford to.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,445
    edited October 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the other hand, we in England in the Seventeenth Century had a civil war and Glorious Revolution that established Parliament as sovereign and declared:

    No foreign prince, person, prelate, state, or potentate hath, or ought to have, any jurisdiction, power, superiority, pre-eminence, or authority, ecclesiastical or spiritual, within this realm.

    Followed by unheard of growth and prosperity.

    This year the voters gloriously upheld this principle.

    The period was rather less pleasant for the Chinese, the Turks, the French, the Spanish, the Germans, etc. etc.

    But, yes, Britain left the Seventeenth Century a constitutional monarchy. Other countries were less lucky. Rolling the revolution dice sometime results in a six. And sometimes you end with the Hundred Years War, and sometimes with Louis XIV.
    We got it right then and I have every confidence we will get it right now.
    I'm confident we made the right choice with Brexit too.

    But what drives me crazy is the complete lack of knowledge of international trade among my fellow Brexiteers; the lack of commitment to free trade in pretty much every other country in the world; and the amount of time taken to negotiate even simple trade deals.
    Sounds a bit like the justification for socialism.

    In theory the best political and social system, just that no one has quite managed to put it into practice yet.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,807
    TOPPING said:


    The known unknown is what the EU27 concede on FOM. I have no feel for it so can't say I am optimistic or pessimistic.

    Joseph Muscat, prime minister of Malta probably gets close to it:

    The four freedoms – free movement of goods, capital, services, and people – could not be decoupled, Muscat said. “That cannot be negotiated … These principles are the basis for everything the EU does.”

    Brexit was “not just an accounting exercise” for the EU 27, he said, adding that Britain’s deal had to be be “fair, but it has to be inferior. The idea that Britain can come back with a superior deal, or even the same deal, is not acceptable.

    “Of course, if your priority is controlling immigration, it may not be a worse deal. But it must be inferior in terms of the whole package. There can be no membership with caveats.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/05/angela-merkel-takes-significantly-tougher-brexit-stance
  • Options
    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    Speedy said:

    It was a mistake for the NeverTrump's to denounce Trump before the debate, there was a small chance that he could have won it and he did, NeverTrump screwed it's timing.
    The smartest republicans waited to see the debate first.

    Some surely saw it not as giving him a chance to outperform Hillary Clinton but as giving him enough rope. Steve Bannon and Jared Kushner planned to have Broaddrick, Jones, Shelton and Willey approach Bill Clinton on live TV, but the organisers stopped them on the day itself, telling the Trump team that if they sat in Trump's family box security would throw them out. A quarter of an hour from now, the RNC conference call starts. Maybe they'll show an Apprentice tape - who knows? I'm not persuaded that the Republicans won't dump Trump.
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the other hand, we in England in the Seventeenth Century had a civil war and Glorious Revolution that established Parliament as sovereign and declared:

    No foreign prince, person, prelate, state, or potentate hath, or ought to have, any jurisdiction, power, superiority, pre-eminence, or authority, ecclesiastical or spiritual, within this realm.

    Followed by unheard of growth and prosperity.

    This year the voters gloriously upheld this principle.

    The period was rather less pleasant for the Chinese, the Turks, the French, the Spanish, the Germans, etc. etc.

    But, yes, Britain left the Seventeenth Century a constitutional monarchy. Other countries were less lucky. Rolling the revolution dice sometime results in a six. And sometimes you end with the Hundred Years War, and sometimes with Louis XIV.
    We got it right then and I have every confidence we will get it right now.
    I'm confident we made the right choice with Brexit too.

    But what drives me crazy is the complete lack of knowledge of international trade among my fellow Brexiteers; the lack of commitment to free trade in pretty much every other country in the world; and the amount of time taken to negotiate even simple trade deals.
    That is why I doubt hard brexit will happen. But to get an acceptable soft brexit deal we have to show we are serious about hard brexit even if it really hurts.

    The rows in the EU about who plugs the budget gap if we go hard brexit have barely started yet.

    A very interesting game of poker.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,162
    rcs1000 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    May has the numbers to force Article 50 through the Commons. If the Lords or the courts attempt to block it, she has the perfect excuse for an election.

    Does anybody seriously think she would win other than a crushing victory?

    If it came to a vote, it would be 550 votes to 100. It's a complete red herring.
    Getting the votes wouldn't be a problem, but it would force the government not to wing it.

    Blair got the numbers for the Iraq War, but it was the dishonesty he used to get them that was his long term undoing.

    Parliamentary scrutiny in an essential part of our democracy.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,162
    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the other hand, we in England in the Seventeenth Century had a civil war and Glorious Revolution that established Parliament as sovereign and declared:

    No foreign prince, person, prelate, state, or potentate hath, or ought to have, any jurisdiction, power, superiority, pre-eminence, or authority, ecclesiastical or spiritual, within this realm.

    Followed by unheard of growth and prosperity.

    This year the voters gloriously upheld this principle.

    The period was rather less pleasant for the Chinese, the Turks, the French, the Spanish, the Germans, etc. etc.

    But, yes, Britain left the Seventeenth Century a constitutional monarchy. Other countries were less lucky. Rolling the revolution dice sometime results in a six. And sometimes you end with the Hundred Years War, and sometimes with Louis XIV.
    We got it right then and I have every confidence we will get it right now.
    I'm confident we made the right choice with Brexit too.

    But what drives me crazy is the complete lack of knowledge of international trade among my fellow Brexiteers; the lack of commitment to free trade in pretty much every other country in the world; and the amount of time taken to negotiate even simple trade deals.
    Sounds a bit like the justification for socialism.

    In theory the best political and social system, just that no one has quite managed to put it into practice yet.
    Yes, this is what enrages me about Daniel Hannan and people who think like him. It's naive utopianism dressed up as realism and delivered in a smug, knowing manner.
  • Options
    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    RoyalBlue said:

    May has the numbers to force Article 50 through the Commons. If the Lords or the courts attempt to block it, she has the perfect excuse for an election.

    Does anybody seriously think she would win other than a crushing victory?

    I don't know. But if there were a referendum now on whether to continue the leaving process or to stay in, how would it go?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,099

    rcs1000 said:

    On the other hand, we in England in the Seventeenth Century had a civil war and Glorious Revolution that established Parliament as sovereign and declared:

    No foreign prince, person, prelate, state, or potentate hath, or ought to have, any jurisdiction, power, superiority, pre-eminence, or authority, ecclesiastical or spiritual, within this realm.

    Followed by unheard of growth and prosperity.

    This year the voters gloriously upheld this principle.

    The period was rather less pleasant for the Chinese, the Turks, the French, the Spanish, the Germans, etc. etc.

    But, yes, Britain left the Seventeenth Century a constitutional monarchy. Other countries were less lucky. Rolling the revolution dice sometime results in a six. And sometimes you end with the Hundred Years War, and sometimes with Louis XIV.
    We got it right then and I have every confidence we will get it right now.
    No you don't have every confidence. You think hard Brexit is a bluff.
    Its an option, not the preferred option but a perfectly viable option if the EU behave like arseholes - which they cant afford to.
    I struggle with your views here. The leaders of the EU must act in their own best interests, yes? That won't necessarily match our best interests. It's also pretty much indisputable that they would suffer less than us in the near term: private sector debt is massively lower across the EU, government deficits are less, and almost every country runs a current account surplus against our current account deficit. The EU (and specifically the Eurozone) is at a cyclical low. We're at a cyclical high. That means we're likely to underperform the EU and the Eurozone for a while.

    We have a really nasty transition ahead. We need to close a current account deficit of 7% of GDP (which is almost as high as Spain was ahead of the Eurozone crisis). And we're doing it with a higher level of government and private sector debt. Our economy has been based around borrowing to spend on imported tat. That's not sustainable.

    And this is the true threat to Brexit: a nasty recession causing the fall of the government, leading to the election of a pro-EU party.
  • Options
    FF43 said:

    TOPPING said:


    The known unknown is what the EU27 concede on FOM. I have no feel for it so can't say I am optimistic or pessimistic.

    Joseph Muscat, prime minister of Malta probably gets close to it:

    The four freedoms – free movement of goods, capital, services, and people – could not be decoupled, Muscat said. “That cannot be negotiated … These principles are the basis for everything the EU does.”

    Brexit was “not just an accounting exercise” for the EU 27, he said, adding that Britain’s deal had to be be “fair, but it has to be inferior. The idea that Britain can come back with a superior deal, or even the same deal, is not acceptable.

    “Of course, if your priority is controlling immigration, it may not be a worse deal. But it must be inferior in terms of the whole package. There can be no membership with caveats.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/05/angela-merkel-takes-significantly-tougher-brexit-stance
    FF43 said:

    TOPPING said:


    The known unknown is what the EU27 concede on FOM. I have no feel for it so can't say I am optimistic or pessimistic.

    Joseph Muscat, prime minister of Malta probably gets close to it:

    The four freedoms – free movement of goods, capital, services, and people – could not be decoupled, Muscat said. “That cannot be negotiated … These principles are the basis for everything the EU does.”

    Brexit was “not just an accounting exercise” for the EU 27, he said, adding that Britain’s deal had to be be “fair, but it has to be inferior. The idea that Britain can come back with a superior deal, or even the same deal, is not acceptable.

    “Of course, if your priority is controlling immigration, it may not be a worse deal. But it must be inferior in terms of the whole package. There can be no membership with caveats.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/05/angela-merkel-takes-significantly-tougher-brexit-stance
    FFS, of course they are going to take a stand like that before the negotiations.
  • Options
    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited October 2016
    "a civil war and Glorious Revolution that established Parliament the City of London with new-fangled Dutch-style banking and companies as sovereign"

  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,005
    FF43 said:

    TOPPING said:


    The known unknown is what the EU27 concede on FOM. I have no feel for it so can't say I am optimistic or pessimistic.

    Joseph Muscat, prime minister of Malta probably gets close to it:

    The four freedoms – free movement of goods, capital, services, and people – could not be decoupled, Muscat said. “That cannot be negotiated … These principles are the basis for everything the EU does.”

    Brexit was “not just an accounting exercise” for the EU 27, he said, adding that Britain’s deal had to be be “fair, but it has to be inferior. The idea that Britain can come back with a superior deal, or even the same deal, is not acceptable.

    “Of course, if your priority is controlling immigration, it may not be a worse deal. But it must be inferior in terms of the whole package. There can be no membership with caveats.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/05/angela-merkel-takes-significantly-tougher-brexit-stance
    If EU membership represents the Summit of human civilisation, then of course, not being part of the EU must be worse.

    But, eurosceptics don't see the EU that way.
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @rcs1000

    'By the time the Conservatives came to power, the treaty was already ratified, and therefore it was in force. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ratification_of_the_Treaty_of_Lisbon'

    I was referring to when Brown was PM and the fact that he signed it without a referendum,although we had been promised one for the EU constitution which was identical.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,050



    On the other hand, we in England in the Seventeenth Century had a civil war and Glorious Revolution that established Parliament as sovereign and declared:

    No foreign prince, person, prelate, state, or potentate hath, or ought to have, any jurisdiction, power, superiority, pre-eminence, or authority, ecclesiastical or spiritual, within this realm.

    It's difficult to defend the 1688 invasion as "no foreign prince" when it involved an successful invasion of England, the removal of a born-and-bred English King (James II) and the installation of a European Prince of a European Principality (William III) on the English throne
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,880
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the other hand, we in England in the Seventeenth Century had a civil war and Glorious Revolution that established Parliament as sovereign and declared:

    No foreign prince, person, prelate, state, or potentate hath, or ought to have, any jurisdiction, power, superiority, pre-eminence, or authority, ecclesiastical or spiritual, within this realm.

    Followed by unheard of growth and prosperity.

    This year the voters gloriously upheld this principle.

    The period was rather less pleasant for the Chinese, the Turks, the French, the Spanish, the Germans, etc. etc.

    But, yes, Britain left the Seventeenth Century a constitutional monarchy. Other countries were less lucky. Rolling the revolution dice sometime results in a six. And sometimes you end with the Hundred Years War, and sometimes with Louis XIV.
    We got it right then and I have every confidence we will get it right now.
    No you don't have every confidence. You think hard Brexit is a bluff.
    Its an option, not the preferred option but a perfectly viable option if the EU behave like arseholes - which they cant afford to.
    I struggle with your views here. The leaders of the EU must act in their own best interests, yes? That won't necessarily match our best interests. It's also pretty much indisputable that they would suffer less than us in the near term: private sector debt is massively lower across the EU, government deficits are less, and almost every country runs a current account surplus against our current account deficit. The EU (and specifically the Eurozone) is at a cyclical low. We're at a cyclical high. That means we're likely to underperform the EU and the Eurozone for a while.

    We have a really nasty transition ahead. We need to close a current account deficit of 7% of GDP (which is almost as high as Spain was ahead of the Eurozone crisis). And we're doing it with a higher level of government and private sector debt. Our economy has been based around borrowing to spend on imported tat. That's not sustainable.

    And this is the true threat to Brexit: a nasty recession causing the fall of the government, leading to the election of a pro-EU party.
    Can you remind us again why you voted Leave given you seem most eloquent on the utter lack of economic upside and the parlous situation we now face?
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    Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited October 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the other hand, we in England in the Seventeenth Century had a civil war and Glorious Revolution that established Parliament as sovereign and declared:

    No foreign prince, person, prelate, state, or potentate hath, or ought to have, any jurisdiction, power, superiority, pre-eminence, or authority, ecclesiastical or spiritual, within this realm.

    Followed by unheard of growth and prosperity.

    This year the voters gloriously upheld this principle.

    The period was rather less pleasant for the Chinese, the Turks, the French, the Spanish, the Germans, etc. etc.

    .
    We got it right then and I have every confidence we will get it right now.
    No you don't have every confidence. You think hard Brexit is a bluff.
    Its an option, not the preferred option but a perfectly viable option if the EU behave like arseholes - which they cant afford to.
    I struggle with your views here. The leaders of the EU must act in their own best interests, yes? That won't necessarily match our best interests. It's also pretty much indisputable that they would suffer less than us in the near term: private sector debt is massively lower across the EU, government deficits are less, and almost every country runs a current account surplus against our current account deficit. The EU (and specifically the Eurozone) is at a cyclical low. We're at a cyclical high. That means we're likely to underperform the EU and the Eurozone for a while.

    We have a really nasty transition ahead. We need to close a current account deficit of 7% of GDP (which is almost as high as Spain was ahead of the Eurozone crisis). And we're doing it with a higher level of government and private sector debt. Our economy has been based around borrowing to spend on imported tat. That's not sustainable.

    And this is the true threat to Brexit: a nasty recession causing the fall of the government, leading to the election of a pro-EU party.
    I think it would be more likely to bring about a more anti eu leadsomite or kipper lite government myself.

    With eu threatening punishment any recession would likely be cast as deliberate sabotage by them. Pretty well as an act of war.

    I note the things you state economically, but they are still trying to sort out a single currency that is causing economic ruin in the south which makes them vulnerable, especially with Uncle Vlad on manouvers and filling East Prussia with missiles.

    The other difference is that our government have the people behind them wheras the EU are defying the will of their people ever more increasingly and blatantly.

    Im tired and probably rambling on a bit now.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,162
    edited October 2016


    I note the things you state economically, but they are still trying to sort out a single currency that is causing economic ruin in the south which makes them vulnerable, especially with Uncle Vlad on manouvers and filling East Prussia with missiles.

    Why do you insist on misusing historical terms like East Prussia? It's not congruous with Kaliningrad you know.
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    nielhnielh Posts: 1,307

    rcs1000 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    May has the numbers to force Article 50 through the Commons. If the Lords or the courts attempt to block it, she has the perfect excuse for an election.

    Does anybody seriously think she would win other than a crushing victory?

    If it came to a vote, it would be 550 votes to 100. It's a complete red herring.
    Getting the votes wouldn't be a problem, but it would force the government not to wing it.

    Blair got the numbers for the Iraq War, but it was the dishonesty he used to get them that was his long term undoing.

    Parliamentary scrutiny in an essential part of our democracy.
    I think that we have gone about this completely the wrong way. By even agreeing to invoke article 50 we have effectively agreed to enter in to a negotiation process that massively disadvantages us, because the 2 year deadline effectively puts a gun to our heads on any deal they decide to offer us, and creates debilitating uncertainty for us in the intervening period. By playing along to this 'no negotiation pre article 50' we have fallen in to a trap that they set.

    In my view, there is an argument that this government have botched it up and deserve to fall because of it.

    Whilst there is a lot to debate but I agree it is difficult to see the govt losing a vote at the moment given the backdrop of the referendum and the apparent support for the governments position.
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