...in an article in the Daily Kos which is well worth reading, in particular on how Donald Trump entrusted his 14-year-old daughter to John Casablancas, a man whose sexual interest in underage girls was by then public knowledge.
I had £113 on Johnson to be next POTUS at 1000. When he failed to make the first debate I put the bet back up on Betfair as a LAY at 1000 and it has all been progressively matched. So I had a free shot at a huge payout.
The fact that the bet has been matched means, of course, that the market has moved slightly back in his favour. I can't see it at all now myself but if we do get a President G Johnson I won't be too happy!
...in an article in the Daily Kos which is well worth reading, in particular on how Donald Trump entrusted his 14-year-old daughter to John Casablancas, a man whose sexual interest in underage girls was by then public knowledge.
More liberal, elite, bla bla, bla propaganda........
The liberals just don't get it. The Voters want a man who is a proper man, who grabs pussy whenever, and can say if his daughter is a piece of ass. Hell yeah.....
Can someone who has followed every twist and turn on this madness explain the TicTac thing?
Tic Tac USA @TicTacUSA 3h3 hours ago Tic Tac respects all women. We find the recent statements and behavior completely inappropriate and unacceptable.
I can't think of a crappier PR thing - there's no brand values attribute associated with politics or social leaning. Imagine Branston pickle saying this...
Beyond daft.
Piling in on a loser is clearly seen as an attractive marketing ploy and let face it America is the land of the winner...
The question is how big can the win get? Could Arizona be in play, or Indiana?
Talking up my own book, I reckon Texas is in play now.
I got on Texas today at 10/1 with Shadsy; but it seems to have gone.
I would have thought that Arizona would be a better bet than Indiana, which will get some Trump benefit.
Utah too. Mormans for Trump? I think not.
16/1 for me. I nearly did a thread on Utah going for Hillary. Headline was
'Donald Trump, Utah Saint or Utah Sinner? Clinton's campaign is doing Something Good'
But here's the most important news stories from today, the GOP are avoiding Trump like a bad case of the clap, which screws up his ground game/GOTV
Can someone who has followed every twist and turn on this madness explain the TicTac thing?
Tic Tac USA @TicTacUSA 3h3 hours ago Tic Tac respects all women. We find the recent statements and behavior completely inappropriate and unacceptable.
I can't think of a crappier PR thing - there's no brand values attribute associated with politics or social leaning. Imagine Branston pickle saying this...
Beyond daft.
Piling in on a loser is clearly seen as an attractive marketing ploy and let face it America is the land of the winner...
The question is how big can the win get? Could Arizona be in play, or Indiana?
Talking up my own book, I reckon Texas is in play now.
I got on Texas today at 10/1 with Shadsy; but it seems to have gone.
I would have thought that Arizona would be a better bet than Indiana, which will get some Trump benefit.
Utah too. Mormans for Trump? I think not.
16/1 for me. I nearly did a thread on Utah going for Hillary. Headline was
'Donald Trump, Utah Saint or Utah Sinner? Clinton's campaign is doing Something Good'
But here's the most important news stories from today, the GOP are avoiding Trump like a bad case of the clap, which screws up his ground game/GOTV
Hard not to laugh at Trump - the "angry poor people" demographic was good enough for Windows and he's up against Shillary. But somehow he has found every possible way to screw up, the final one being the end apart from the most angry. Epic fail.
I had £113 on Johnson to be next POTUS at 1000. When he failed to make the first debate I put the bet back up on Betfair as a LAY at 1000 and it has all been progressively matched. So I had a free shot at a huge payout.
The fact that the bet has been matched means, of course, that the market has moved slightly back in his favour. I can't see it at all now myself but if we do get a President G Johnson I won't be too happy!
You could be a rich man in a few weeks' time. Oh, you've cashed out? Sorry, I misread.
30 years in Sing Sing for Trump coming up, unless of course he resigns in exchange for a pardon from Pence.
What is worse? Mob links? Confessing to murder?
Rape, especially of underage girls. Who knows - maybe some victims have died. Trump is a psychopath. Look at the way he mocks people's disabilities in front of large crowds. The Daily Kos is making people trafficking allegations.
As for the mob, it was lawyer Roy Cohn who helped Donald Trump cross the bridge as a (very young) landlord and property developer from Brooklyn to Manhattan. Cohn was notoriously mobbed up.
Cohn was notoriously well connected full stop. If guilt by association were a crime you'd have to lock up most of the American establishment.
It wasn't just association: he enabled Donald Trump to take a very big step up in the world. Not everyone in the "establishment" has such help in their backgrounds. Some of them are born very high up and stay there.
...in an article in the Daily Kos which is well worth reading, in particular on how Donald Trump entrusted his 14-year-old daughter to John Casablancas, a man whose sexual interest in underage girls was by then public knowledge.
That article in the DailyKos is quite something.
Lets make America Great Again! Build the Wall! Repeat ad nauseum.
...in an article in the Daily Kos which is well worth reading, in particular on how Donald Trump entrusted his 14-year-old daughter to John Casablancas, a man whose sexual interest in underage girls was by then public knowledge.
That article in the DailyKos is quite something.
Lets make America Great Again! Build the Wall! Repeat ad nauseum.
Build a wall! Stop the sexual perverts entering Mexico!
Trump could've won this election. The Trumpsters are a large enough movement. His policies are not what has hurt him, it's his character, he's simply not serious as a person. More Berlusconi than Marine Le Pen. I think he may just turn off enough republican loyalists that it does him in now. He will rapidly lose all remaining establishment support as they decide the presidential is lost, and down ticket races are still winnable if they abandon trump.
I had £113 on Johnson to be next POTUS at 1000. When he failed to make the first debate I put the bet back up on Betfair as a LAY at 1000 and it has all been progressively matched. So I had a free shot at a huge payout.
The fact that the bet has been matched means, of course, that the market has moved slightly back in his favour. I can't see it at all now myself but if we do get a President G Johnson I won't be too happy!
You could be a rich man in a few weeks' time. Oh, you've cashed out? Sorry, I misread.
Had Johnson made the debates I think he had an outside chance of becoming POTUS. Maybe 33/1? My bet was really a bet on him making the debates which I thought he might do and was perhaps a 5/1 shot? If so, backing Johnson before he missed the debates opportunity was maybe equivalent to backing a 200/1 shot at 1000/1. After missing the debates I think he's back at 1000/1.
Just back from a slightly melancholy wedding. Given the way politics has been recently I just thought I'd check if the world had ended in the last 14hrs ? Has anything happened ?
Could Johnson appear in the third debate if his polling goes up?
15% average is the polling cut off, could happen if this drags on.
I thought it was too late for all of that. That it had to be an average in a set of polls that were taken weeks ago?
The third debate is still 10 days away.
Yes, but I was under the impression that the polls that counted for the 15% average were taken weeks ago and current ones didn't count.
That's not how I understand it, there are 5 poling companies that have been chosen, but each are doing many poles and it will be the most up to date that is used each time. however it was assumed that if he did not make it to the first debate that his popularity wood fall and thus not make the second or third ether.
I make £80,000 if Johnson wins so, I'm on the look out for the positives, but sadly I don't think it will happen.
Just back from a slightly melancholy wedding. Given the way politics has been recently I just thought I'd check if the world had ended in the last 14hrs ? Has anything happened ?
We all went to a melancholy wedding. Melancholy wedding. Melancholy wedding. We all went to a melancholy wedding. Melancholy wedding. Melancholy wedding.
Despite all the negative stories, Trump is in spitting discount of HRC - her lead is down slightly with Fox today and, dispute the make-up of the LA Times tracker, but the key is that there has not been much change. Polls range from Trump +3 to Clinton +6.
Problem 2 for HRC - she needs black voters to turn out - they did for Obama, who was one of their own. For a elderly, white woman, a lot more doubtful. From the NC poll that put HRC at +2%:
"Trump leads by 20 among white voters; Clinton leads by 75 among African Americans"
Problem 3 for HRC: while Trump is a sleazebag, that is "in the price". What is clear is that there are far more HRC e-mails to come - that will not cause people to switch to Trump but will cause many to withhold a vote from HRC.
I think a few people on this site need to be more objective: for example, they wet their knickers over Trump only up in Indiana +5% but completely ignored the last poll showing HRC only up in New Hampshire by 2%. Not fitting your agenda?
As I said on a previous post, Trump may not win but the value is with him.
Just back from a slightly melancholy wedding. Given the way politics has been recently I just thought I'd check if the world had ended in the last 14hrs ? Has anything happened ?
We all went to a melancholy wedding. Melancholy wedding. Melancholy wedding. We all went to a melancholy wedding. Melancholy wedding. Melancholy wedding.
Latest Des Moines Register poll of 642 likely voters in Iowa has Trump leading by four points in the quartet format. Sadly, all work was done before Friday.
Mildly interesting fact: Des Moines was named after the Des Moines River, which itself was apparently named by the French.after the Trappist monks who settled along it. Another theory has the name coming from an obscene phrase the Peoria tribe used for a neighboring tribe they didn't get along with.
Despite all the negative stories, Trump is in spitting discount of HRC - her lead is down slightly with Fox today and, dispute the make-up of the LA Times tracker, but the key is that there has not been much change. Polls range from Trump +3 to Clinton +6.
Problem 2 for HRC - she needs black voters to turn out - they did for Obama, who was one of their own. For a elderly, white woman, a lot more doubtful. From the NC poll that put HRC at +2%:
"Trump leads by 20 among white voters; Clinton leads by 75 among African Americans"
Problem 3 for HRC: while Trump is a sleazebag, that is "in the price". What is clear is that there are far more HRC e-mails to come - that will not cause people to switch to Trump but will cause many to withhold a vote from HRC.
I think a few people on this site need to be more objective: for example, they wet their knickers over Trump only up in Indiana +5% but completely ignored the last poll showing HRC only up in New Hampshire by 2%. Not fitting your agenda?
As I said on a previous post, Trump may not win but the value is with him.
1. may have more after this weekend. 2. she will get a lot more white women and hispanics 3. look at averages, not single polls. she is on avreage 4.5 in the lead nationally.
also, that tape fucks up trump with suburban women, and the GOP is in open warfare. These arent minor issues.
1. may have more after this weekend. 2. she will get a lot more white women and hispanics 3. look at averages, not single polls. she is on avreage 4.5 in the lead nationally.
also, that tape fucks up trump with suburban women, and the GOP is in open warfare. These arent minor issues.
1. No, Millennials are not suddenly going to flock to HRC because of Trump's comments - there is a lot of data out there saying they mistrust her etc. Trump making some stupid ass comments ten years ago will not change that.
2. No, HRC's support amongst Hispanics is already high (and you are talking about a macho culture anyway). White women may at the edges but, again, everyone knows Trump was a sleazebag.
3. The problems with averages is they treat all polls the same - I have my doubts about the LA Times weighting but it is a tracker which is vital for seeing the trends - and it is not moving.
1. may have more after this weekend. 2. she will get a lot more white women and hispanics 3. look at averages, not single polls. she is on avreage 4.5 in the lead nationally.
also, that tape fucks up trump with suburban women, and the GOP is in open warfare. These arent minor issues.
1. No, Millennials are not suddenly going to flock to HRC because of Trump's comments - there is a lot of data out there saying they mistrust her etc. Trump making some stupid ass comments ten years ago will not change that.
2. No, HRC's support amongst Hispanics is already high (and you are talking about a macho culture anyway). White women may at the edges but, again, everyone knows Trump was a sleazebag.
3. The problems with averages is they treat all polls the same - I have my doubts about the LA Times weighting but it is a tracker which is vital for seeing the trends - and it is not moving.
hmmm. i think 1. is overstated. 2. we will know more after polls. and 3. 538 doesnt treat them all the same. La times tracking poll has very minor value as its the same 4000 people pool being polled. Its almost as bad as rassumen imo
The point why most companies consider a tracking poll valuable is that it picks up changes in attitudes. You can argue whether the weightings are right or wrong but, if Trump was seeing major fallout from the debate etc, it would have been reflected in the tracker because people would change their opinions. But they have not.
My view looking at the methodology of the polls is that they are low quality. However, I have heard enough comments suggesting HRC support is only lukewarm whereas Trump supporters are dedicated to have the feeling this is Brexit 2.0
Anyway, I have put my money where my mouth is so let's see
The point why most companies consider a tracking poll valuable is that it picks up changes in attitudes. You can argue whether the weightings are right or wrong but, if Trump was seeing major fallout from the debate etc, it would have been reflected in the tracker because people would change their opinions. But they have not.
My view looking at the methodology of the polls is that they are low quality. However, I have heard enough comments suggesting HRC support is only lukewarm whereas Trump supporters are dedicated to have the feeling this is Brexit 2.0
Anyway, I have put my money where my mouth is so let's see
The problem with the LA Times one is that because their pool are getting polled every day, they end up watching the race in a very different way to normal voters. So they may not be doing a great job of picking up the short-term trends any more either.
"A student union welfare officer has called for the National Anthem to be removed from a leading university's graduation ceremony because of 'increasing far right nationalism'. Mahamed Abdullahi, from King's College London Students' Union, called the traditional rendition of God Save The Queen 'outdated
Do people really think Trump is going to step aside meekly in favour of someone he considers has stabbed him in the back?
No but it is possible Trump might be made an offer he can't refuse, perhaps based around bailing out his doomed campaign The trouble for the GOP is after Trump, the next biggest player was Cruz who as a Tea Party headbanger is equally unacceptable. Let's see what happens tonight.
"A student union welfare officer has called for the National Anthem to be removed from a leading university's graduation ceremony because of 'increasing far right nationalism'. Mahamed Abdullahi, from King's College London Students' Union, called the traditional rendition of God Save The Queen 'outdated
KCL stopped being a leading university when it closed its chemistry department a dozen or so years back (although it is now resurrecting it in limited form).
Deep thought: If Trump withdraws but is still on the ballot and the GOP say vote Trump to get X, how do Trump die-hards express support for Trump? Do they cross out Trump and write in Trump? Or do the Trump side pick another person and say write in Y to get Trump?
Deep thought: If Trump withdraws but is still on the ballot and the GOP say vote Trump to get X, how do Trump die-hards express support for Trump? Do they cross out Trump and write in Trump? Or do the Trump side pick another person and say write in Y to get Trump?
If Trump withdraws, who is left to make these decisions for the Trump side?
The GOP paradox is it is better if its supporters vote for Hillary than stay at home, as this way all the down-ticket Republicans get votes. It might then be better if Trump stays in the race but that other Republicans dissociate themselves from him.
Deep thought: If Trump withdraws but is still on the ballot and the GOP say vote Trump to get X, how do Trump die-hards express support for Trump? Do they cross out Trump and write in Trump? Or do the Trump side pick another person and say write in Y to get Trump?
If Trump withdraws, who is left to make these decisions for the Trump side?
Do people really think Trump is going to step aside meekly in favour of someone he considers has stabbed him in the back?
No but it is possible Trump might be made an offer he can't refuse, perhaps based around bailing out his doomed campaign The trouble for the GOP is after Trump, the next biggest player was Cruz who as a Tea Party headbanger is equally unacceptable. Let's see what happens tonight.
If Trump goes I'd say it'll be Pence stepping into the gap. The election's probably lost anyway so it's just trying to mitigate the losses and save what face you can. The likely 2020 contenders wouldn't want to be sullied by the loss and it'd be the quickest and cleanest way of doing it.
Deep thought: If Trump withdraws but is still on the ballot and the GOP say vote Trump to get X, how do Trump die-hards express support for Trump? Do they cross out Trump and write in Trump? Or do the Trump side pick another person and say write in Y to get Trump?
If Trump withdraws, who is left to make these decisions for the Trump side?
Do people really think Trump is going to step aside meekly in favour of someone he considers has stabbed him in the back?
No but it is possible Trump might be made an offer he can't refuse, perhaps based around bailing out his doomed campaign The trouble for the GOP is after Trump, the next biggest player was Cruz who as a Tea Party headbanger is equally unacceptable. Let's see what happens tonight.
Bailing out his campaign? Isn't Trump is making a hefty profit on the campaign by charging loads of stuff to his companies? Plus all those supporters he can sell hats to afterwards saying Hilary stole the election...
Comments
http://images.dailykos.com/images/296347/large/donald-ivanka.jpg?1473134913
...in an article in the Daily Kos which is well worth reading, in particular on how Donald Trump entrusted his 14-year-old daughter to John Casablancas, a man whose sexual interest in underage girls was by then public knowledge.
The fact that the bet has been matched means, of course, that the market has moved slightly back in his favour. I can't see it at all now myself but if we do get a President G Johnson I won't be too happy!
Sorry Mike :-)
30 years in Sing Sing for Trump coming up, unless of course he resigns in exchange for a pardon from Pence.
The liberals just don't get it. The Voters want a man who is a proper man, who grabs pussy whenever, and can say if his daughter is a piece of ass. Hell yeah.....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sFw5Mt70vY
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-bottom-could-fall-out-for-trump/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gr6EfTeBRG4
Hillary has got to take a patsy.....she has to take a fall otherwise she could finish him off tomorrow......
Surely anything that could lead to prison for Trump also compromises anyone who's sat on the tapes all these years.
As for the mob, it was lawyer Roy Cohn who helped Donald Trump cross the bridge as a (very young) landlord and property developer from Brooklyn to Manhattan. Cohn was notoriously mobbed up.
Freddy Gray"
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/trump-tape-really-shocking/
Lets make America Great Again! Build the Wall! Repeat ad nauseum.
Make #America #Grope Again!
Allegations of sexual assault were levelled against Ronald Reagan at one time.
https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/784893041710551040
I make £80,000 if Johnson wins so, I'm on the look out for the positives, but sadly I don't think it will happen.
Melancholy wedding. Melancholy wedding.
We all went to a melancholy wedding.
Melancholy wedding. Melancholy wedding.
If yes, trump. If no, clinton
Despite all the negative stories, Trump is in spitting discount of HRC - her lead is down slightly with Fox today and, dispute the make-up of the LA Times tracker, but the key is that there has not been much change. Polls range from Trump +3 to Clinton +6.
Problem 1 for HRC - the millennials are not enthused enough about her to vote (Chegg provides rental textbooks for students): http://www.chegg.com/press/new-polling-data-chegg-shows-lack-enthusiasm-presidential-campaign/
Problem 2 for HRC - she needs black voters to turn out - they did for Obama, who was one of their own. For a elderly, white woman, a lot more doubtful. From the NC poll that put HRC at +2%:
"Trump leads by 20 among white voters; Clinton leads by 75 among African Americans"
Problem 3 for HRC: while Trump is a sleazebag, that is "in the price". What is clear is that there are far more HRC e-mails to come - that will not cause people to switch to Trump but will cause many to withhold a vote from HRC.
I think a few people on this site need to be more objective: for example, they wet their knickers over Trump only up in Indiana +5% but completely ignored the last poll showing HRC only up in New Hampshire by 2%. Not fitting your agenda?
As I said on a previous post, Trump may not win but the value is with him.
Mildly interesting fact: Des Moines was named after the Des Moines River, which itself was apparently named by the French.after the Trappist monks who settled along it. Another theory has the name coming from an obscene phrase the Peoria tribe used for a neighboring tribe they didn't get along with.
2. she will get a lot more white women and hispanics
3. look at averages, not single polls. she is on avreage 4.5 in the lead nationally.
also, that tape fucks up trump with suburban women, and the GOP is in open warfare. These arent minor issues.
1. may have more after this weekend.
2. she will get a lot more white women and hispanics
3. look at averages, not single polls. she is on avreage 4.5 in the lead nationally.
also, that tape fucks up trump with suburban women, and the GOP is in open warfare. These arent minor issues.
1. No, Millennials are not suddenly going to flock to HRC because of Trump's comments - there is a lot of data out there saying they mistrust her etc. Trump making some stupid ass comments ten years ago will not change that.
2. No, HRC's support amongst Hispanics is already high (and you are talking about a macho culture anyway). White women may at the edges but, again, everyone knows Trump was a sleazebag.
3. The problems with averages is they treat all polls the same - I have my doubts about the LA Times weighting but it is a tracker which is vital for seeing the trends - and it is not moving.
2. she will get a lot more white women and hispanics
3. look at averages, not single polls. she is on avreage 4.5 in the lead nationally.
also, that tape fucks up trump with suburban women, and the GOP is in open warfare. These arent minor issues.
1. No, Millennials are not suddenly going to flock to HRC because of Trump's comments - there is a lot of data out there saying they mistrust her etc. Trump making some stupid ass comments ten years ago will not change that.
2. No, HRC's support amongst Hispanics is already high (and you are talking about a macho culture anyway). White women may at the edges but, again, everyone knows Trump was a sleazebag.
3. The problems with averages is they treat all polls the same - I have my doubts about the LA Times weighting but it is a tracker which is vital for seeing the trends - and it is not moving.
hmmm. i think 1. is overstated. 2. we will know more after polls. and 3. 538 doesnt treat them all the same. La times tracking poll has very minor value as its the same 4000 people pool being polled. Its almost as bad as rassumen imo
The point why most companies consider a tracking poll valuable is that it picks up changes in attitudes. You can argue whether the weightings are right or wrong but, if Trump was seeing major fallout from the debate etc, it would have been reflected in the tracker because people would change their opinions. But they have not.
My view looking at the methodology of the polls is that they are low quality. However, I have heard enough comments suggesting HRC support is only lukewarm whereas Trump supporters are dedicated to have the feeling this is Brexit 2.0
Anyway, I have put my money where my mouth is so let's see
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tg4xyKZjAOc
"A student union welfare officer has called for the National Anthem to be removed from a leading university's graduation ceremony because of 'increasing far right nationalism'.
Mahamed Abdullahi, from King's College London Students' Union, called the traditional rendition of God Save The Queen 'outdated
: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3828682/University-considers-banning-National-Anthem-graduation-ceremonies-links-increasing-far-right-nationalism.html#