Wake Co NC voted absentees 39 days pre-elex: 2016 1,912 D 42.8% R 29.6% U 27.4%
2012 272 D 30.5% R 44.9% U 24.6%
up 602%, 27% swing to D
only one county, but its not looking like Trump is gaining from increased turn out in early voting....
For NC as a whole
While the total returned and accepted mail-in absentee ballots are 106 percent of the same-day totals from 2012, registered Democrats are at 140 percent, registered unaffiliated voters are at 139 percent, and registered Republicans are behind their cumulative numbers from four years ago, at only 73 percent of their same-day totals.
Analysis is confounded by legacy Southern Democrats but a picture is being to emerge of Trump failing to get the "fake" undecideds to pull the trigger on voting for him.
It was very true of offices in the 1970s and first half of the 1980s an era when there was little difference between public and pricvate offices IMHO. and that was before email. The numbers generated their own need for support etc. My ratio was that if we could cut 4 jobs in an office then at least 2 others would go eventually. Initially I worked on a 6:1 ratio but later 2:1 became the norm. A department that was 140 in 1980 dropped to 35 by 1985 and yet was handling more work (purchasing and contracts). Word processing on desks made a stunning improvement. This was at a time of growth by the international services company.
Mr. Betting, My experience of the CS overlapped yours and in particular I was there in the early mid-nineties when email broke through. That little "CC" button became the Civil Servant's friend. Suddenly everything was being copied to everybody, and people read it all and replied (often using the reply to all button), even though the subject was not really anything to do with them. Productivity collapsed.
It was a real battle in the 90s to keep on top of the 100+ a day that landed in my inbox. Unfortunately made worse at times when internal politics dominated and you had to read everything.
I cannot say I am totally against eating meat- the chianina, the beef they rear in the Tuscan villages- they are incredibly well loved and cared for animals that have the most idyllic existence wandering the Appenines in the summer- and the slaughterhouses are local.
It is just human beings have no control; they cannot stop reducing themselves to the lowest common denominator no matter the cost for nature. The mass production and consumption of meat is one of our most disgusting characteristics.
@patrickwintourMay gave clarity today. Trigger Article 50 by March 2017 so UK out by 2019 and EU Repeal bill passed by then so UK has own legal framework
And should the Commons or more likely the Lords try to hold things up, an election is not ruled out...
Morning GIN, hope you are well.
Morning Malc. Yes, very well thanks.
Have been watching mega rich playboys go round and round in circles on telly (sounds a bit like our rulers in a lot of ways doesn't it? ) and now I'm off to enjoy the sunshine.
You OK?
GIN, vefy well indeed, weekend weather has been lovely , will spend afternoon in garden reading the paper , possibly a nice bottle of cider and then roast chicken dinner. What more can one ask for.
Roast lamb?
Hmm, Roast Pork or roast beef as well, always hard to choose. Today it is chicken though.
There are plenty of nice dishes to eat without murdering something.
LOL, get those lentils boiling while you polish your sandals
I make the most exquisite lentil curry, rich, deep, spicy, garlicky, moorish- the well cooked lentils melt in your mouth. I get a rich depth to the sauce by adding spices, and pasting vegetables- not by using fats (apart from a little olive oil). And after you feel good, not bloated. It is completely my recipe.
As a side, I finely chop some onions and add some red hot pepper sauce- super duper. And I garnish with a fine cut boiled egg on the top, adding a spot of olive oil, salt and pepper.
I make a superb roast dinner- and you can get the most wonderful rich gravy by finely cutting an onion, frying with some olive oil, adding some veggie stock, adding a bit of soya sauce, pepper, more than a hint of chilli, and a big splash of English mustard. You get the colour, texture and depth of flavour of any gravy in my opinion. And you can pile your plate with loads of yummy vegetables- mash potatoes, roast potatoes, a cauliflower cheese side, steamed carrot sticks, steamed green beans, fried greens, beautifully home made yorkies- and wash loads of that lovely rich gravy over it.
And if Parliament declines to enact the Great Repeal Bill, what then?
A general election, a (substantially) larger and more leave-orientated Conservative majority, and the easy passage of the GRB without even bothering to worry about what the other parties think. Not quite sure that is what remainers want.
Would the value be in backing Hilary in Swing states and Trump for the presidency?
That's a good thought. There's going to be states which if Hillary wins she's home and dry - Florida for example. The trick is to find the highest priced state that Hillary must win to get to 270, and use that as a proxy. I'll try to do some digging around this this week, I've pretty much stayed out of the betting so far so it will be a good exercise anyway.
According to Kullas, the British have thus far borne the greatest burden at the bank. Their share of total capital is 16 percent, but they only benefit from 8.8 percent of the loans. No other country has a larger imbalance.
One has started to wonder about net-transfers to the EU monster as a proportion of intra-EU export values. I'd guess that the ratio would put the UK in a bad position (as it pays more in then it gets out): Maybe junior could calculate these figures?*
For those that equate the EU as the largest "free-trade" area then the explicit tariff charges may shock (or not because of ignorance). Factoring in CPA and CFP would be balls-crushing.
As Sarkozy noted the EU is losing the second-biggest EU economy: In terms of the largest global 'free-trade' area then one would expect the Septics and China (self-moderated expression) to encompass that claim. Sadly the truth is dead and we are all now clowns....
* EU net-contributions/Intra-EU exports from a memeber to other EU members.
I'm becoming sceptical of the stuff on 'hard Brexit'. The Great Repeal Act is a terrific headline and is the preverbial red meat. Behind it will come EEA membership for a unspecified transitional period during which the aim will be to negotiate a comprehensive FTA. There is no way that TM is going to risk driving the economy over a cliff with a hasty decision. She will want to take her time. I don't see how we can avoid leaving the Customs Union though - otherwise Liam Fox wouldn't have a job!
Will Hutton notes in Today's Observer that the amount the Government will have to compensate Nissan for a WTO tariff level of 10% under hard Brexit is £350m a year.
Bang goes the NHS money then, Leavers.
I suspect it would also be a "prohibited subsidy" under WTO rules.
Would the value be in backing Hilary in Swing states and Trump for the presidency?
That's a good thought. There's going to be states which if Hillary wins she's home and dry - Florida for example. The trick is to find the highest priced state that Hillary must win to get to 270, and use that as a proxy. I'll try to do some digging around this this week, I've pretty much stayed out of the betting so far so it will be a good exercise anyway.
I was struck by this idea due to my failure at Holyrood 2016 elections. I backed a number of SNP constituency bets that didn't come in. If I'd also backed No Overall Majority at the very, very generous 8/1 I'd have been laughing and in retrospect it was obviously the correct thing to do.
So I'm wondering if the same will apply to this election.
Re: IDs and barstewards - the Remainers seem to be building up to repeating that and have not learned from it. Re: What you said. Judge someone by what they do not what they say they will do. Re Vengence? Revenge is the dish that people with taste eat cold. The removal of Remainers will become inevitable if they carry on in this way as they are out of line with the membership. Unlike IDS etc in the 1990s when IDS etc were in line with most members.
The remainer MPs (so far) are nowhere near the hassle for the leadership that the bastards were. They might reach that point; in which case I'll agree with you. But they're a long way off. And even then the bastards were not thrown out.
I challenge you to tell me where my actions wrt the referendum have been different from what I've said? We're leaving the EU (whatever that means); we need to make the best of it we can. As I said before the referendum, the UK can be a success inside or outside of the EU.
Your last line is questionable. It'd be good to see some evidence (and fortunately ConHome didn't exist back then for you to rely on).
Wake Co NC voted absentees 39 days pre-elex: 2016 1,912 D 42.8% R 29.6% U 27.4%
2012 272 D 30.5% R 44.9% U 24.6%
up 602%, 27% swing to D
only one county, but its not looking like Trump is gaining from increased turn out in early voting....
For NC as a whole
While the total returned and accepted mail-in absentee ballots are 106 percent of the same-day totals from 2012, registered Democrats are at 140 percent, registered unaffiliated voters are at 139 percent, and registered Republicans are behind their cumulative numbers from four years ago, at only 73 percent of their same-day totals.
Analysis is confounded by legacy Southern Democrats but a picture is being to emerge of Trump failing to get the "fake" undecideds to pull the trigger on voting for him.
true. any votes he may be getting from dems/indies would be offset but less voting from repubs (and the fact some of those repubs could be voting against him)
trump winning is prob the value bet. his poll numbers will improve at some point before nov.
Would the value be in backing Hilary in Swing states and Trump for the presidency?
There are probably some normally fairly safe Rep and Dem states where it's worth backing an upset as well to balance your books. Arizona (Republican since 96) could easily go blue, while there are lots of angry white guys in Michigan (Dem since 88) who could hand that state to Trump.
And if Parliament declines to enact the Great Repeal Bill, what then?
A general election, a (substantially) larger and more leave-orientated Conservative majority, and the easy passage of the GRB without even bothering to worry about what the other parties think. Not quite sure that is what remainers want.
Part of me wants a GE soon. Not for any reason to do with Brexit or the referendum; just to see how many vote Labour would get. It would also probably mean the end for Corbyn, and hopefully bring in a Labour leader who would actually create a much-needed functioning (though diminished) opposition.
But I think you're right; a GE before the GRB would, to a large degree, become a de facto referendum on the GRB. And I'd find it hard to vote for a candidate or party that tried to veto the GRB. It's a sensible, albeit small, step forwards.
And if Parliament declines to enact the Great Repeal Bill, what then?
A general election, a (substantially) larger and more leave-orientated Conservative majority, and the easy passage of the GRB without even bothering to worry about what the other parties think. Not quite sure that is what remainers want.
Although a Remainer as a republican I’m very loath to rely on the House of Lords.
@luckyguy Thanks for the advice re diet. You obviously know your stuff. I only eat rice crispies occasionally now.
I think the most important thing to living a healthy lifestyle is climate. You just don't feel like eating crap when the weather is nice. My resting pulse drops 15 plus beats per minute after a week being back in Italy. In the UK I could quite easily snaffle a six pack Walkers cheese and onion multipack, and get stuck into some Pringles too and down a four pack of Stella in an evening. I wouldn't dream of doing that in Italy.
And if Parliament declines to enact the Great Repeal Bill, what then?
A general election, a (substantially) larger and more leave-orientated Conservative majority, and the easy passage of the GRB without even bothering to worry about what the other parties think. Not quite sure that is what remainers want.
Although a Remainer as a republican I’m very loath to rely on the House of Lords.
But..........
Well they might, but it would be signing their own death warrant in exchange for delaying the act by a year. The next parliament would open with a Queen's Speech including both the Great Reform Bill now supercharged by invocation of the Parliament Act, and a bill to reform or dissolve the House of Lords.
Will Hutton notes in Today's Observer that the amount the Government will have to compensate Nissan for a WTO tariff level of 10% under hard Brexit is £350m a year.
Bang goes the NHS money then, Leavers.
If I may point out the Vote Leave campaign's slogan was £350m per week.
Would the value be in backing Hilary in Swing states and Trump for the presidency?
No.
If Clinton wins swing states she's POTUS. Even if she loses a number of swing states - Iowa, North Carolina, Nevada and two of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania she still wins.
"Great Repeal Bill" is a brilliant bit of nonsense for what should be called the ECA (Repeal) Bill - makes it sound very grand and statesmanlike on the part of the govt.
On vegetarianism I have always admired Sarah Palin's view that if God wanted us not to eat animals, he shouldn't have made them out of meat.
@patrickwintourMay gave clarity today. Trigger Article 50 by March 2017 so UK out by 2019 and EU Repeal bill passed by then so UK has own legal framework
And should the Commons or more likely the Lords try to hold things up, an election is not ruled out...
Morning GIN, hope you are well.
You OK?
GIN, vefy well indeed, weekend weather has been lovely , will spend afternoon in garden reading the paper , possibly a nice bottle of cider and then roast chicken dinner. What more can one ask for.
Roast lamb?
Hmm, Roast Pork or roast beef as well, always hard to choose. Today it is chicken though.
Beef for us. Highland cattle from the Farmers Market. Just delicious.
Nothing like well-cooked roast beef with, of course, Yorkshire pudding.
You are absolutely correct, Mr. Cole. One major drawback I cannot cook roast beef. I just cannot get it right. I tried for years before I eventually gave up and now we only have it when we dine at a decent quality restaurant (most pub chefs are no better than I am).
However, I have a life-long love of Yorkshire pudding (as a child we used to have the remains of it cold on Monday smeared with Jam). A taste which my son has inherited so when he is home I usually serve Yorkshires with the roast lamb. A heresy but what can you do?
Today we are once again going to sit down to a curry lunch. I can't be bothered to do a roast for just the two of us (not so much the cooking but the bloody washing up) and we both love curry at lunch time. Recipes from the South-Indian Housewives Cookbook, delicious.
Mr L, this totally O/T, but, in view of previous discussions, can I refer you to https://www.theguardian.com/books/2016/sep/30/making-of-british-landscape-nicholas-crane-review; a review of The Making of the British Landscape by Nicholas Crane review – how the sun shaped the land The book apparently considers the influence on the countryside and cities of climate, geology and a long history of immigration. I’m putting in for a copy.
Mr. Cole, I thank you for your recommendation, Herself will curse you. I shall order my copy this afternoon.
Looks like an interesting book.
Note that, despite the Guardian offer claiming to be below the RRP, it is currently £3 cheaper still on Amazon
I think the reinvention of George Osborne from scheming Machiavellian to principled backbencher will be more fascinating than bruiser Balls turned prime time dancer. I'd guess the public will be less likely to buy it though.
I'd be amazed if the public believed it. The best thing Osborne can do is leave parliament.
One of the saving graces of the Leave vote was the political demise of Osborne. Front bench-wise anyway! Now, if we could only persuade Martin Bell to stand for Tatton again.........
One of the benefits of the boundary review is that many of the Remainer MPs have to keep a little eye on the likely way that the boundaries go and their support within their local Executive under new boundaries. Causing too much trouble for Mrs May could cause local deselections. Osborne himself may have to find a new association and the word I hear is that his current association is full of LEAVErs. Where they go in the new boundaries is the question. Can for example Ken Clarke guarantee a home for Soubry?
But it might also give quite a few of them quite an incentive to scupper the boundary changes!
Hi All I've been away with pneumonia! Hope to be on my feet by Wednesday. Cheers
Ouch, that's nasty. Hope you feel better soon.
There's a lot of it about.
SNL last night ripped into Hillary for using James Brown's "I feel good' coming onto stage at a husting post the debate. Michael Che (who is black) said that "If Hillary had any black friends, she'd know that James Brown died of pneumonia"
Comments
While the total returned and accepted mail-in absentee ballots are 106 percent of the same-day totals from 2012, registered Democrats are at 140 percent, registered unaffiliated voters are at 139 percent, and registered Republicans are behind their cumulative numbers from four years ago, at only 73 percent of their same-day totals.
http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/
Analysis is confounded by legacy Southern Democrats but a picture is being to emerge of Trump failing to get the "fake" undecideds to pull the trigger on voting for him.
For those that equate the EU as the largest "free-trade" area then the explicit tariff charges may shock (or not because of ignorance). Factoring in CPA and CFP would be balls-crushing.
As Sarkozy noted the EU is losing the second-biggest EU economy: In terms of the largest global 'free-trade' area then one would expect the Septics and China (self-moderated expression) to encompass that claim. Sadly the truth is dead and we are all now clowns....
* EU net-contributions/Intra-EU exports from a memeber to other EU members.
So I'm wondering if the same will apply to this election.
I challenge you to tell me where my actions wrt the referendum have been different from what I've said? We're leaving the EU (whatever that means); we need to make the best of it we can. As I said before the referendum, the UK can be a success inside or outside of the EU.
Your last line is questionable. It'd be good to see some evidence (and fortunately ConHome didn't exist back then for you to rely on).
trump winning is prob the value bet. his poll numbers will improve at some point before nov.
But I think you're right; a GE before the GRB would, to a large degree, become a de facto referendum on the GRB. And I'd find it hard to vote for a candidate or party that tried to veto the GRB. It's a sensible, albeit small, step forwards.
But..........
NEW THREAD
Thanks for the advice re diet. You obviously know your stuff. I only eat rice crispies occasionally now.
I think the most important thing to living a healthy lifestyle is climate. You just don't feel like eating crap when the weather is nice. My resting pulse drops 15 plus beats per minute after a week being back in Italy. In the UK I could quite easily snaffle a six pack Walkers cheese and onion multipack, and get stuck into some Pringles too and down a four pack of Stella in an evening. I wouldn't dream of doing that in Italy.
If Clinton wins swing states she's POTUS. Even if she loses a number of swing states - Iowa, North Carolina, Nevada and two of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania she still wins.
On vegetarianism I have always admired Sarah Palin's view that if God wanted us not to eat animals, he shouldn't have made them out of meat.
Note that, despite the Guardian offer claiming to be below the RRP, it is currently £3 cheaper still on Amazon
MikeK, hope you get well soon.