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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What The Great Repeal Bill means for triggering Article 50
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What The Great Repeal Bill means for triggering Article 50
One of the most interesting aspects of the forthcoming Great Repeal Bill is the implications it will have for the Article 50 case currently progressing through the courts. The tweet above is from the eminent Q.C.
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Meanwhile, Trump has now physically mocked how Clinton stumbled and collapsed on 11 September owing to pneumonia:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEmkIPfa6w8
Last year he mocked a reporter's arthrogryposis:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqtoUFW5svQ
He has also insulted those who suffer from super obesity, saying that the hacking into the DNC's computer, rather than being the work of Russian intelligence, might have been done by someone who weighs 400 pounds:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XfVce4rELAY
Does anyone who isn't a gun nut headbanger have a good reason to support this guy? C'mon, Trump surrogates with any sense of what makes and doesn't make a decent human being, withdraw your backing in an organised way and call for this casino-bankrupting, tax-avoiding, embargo-breaking billionaire to resign his candidacy.
Interestingly neither the Sunday Times nor Sunday Mail appear to have big anti-May stories this week, unlike last......I wonder if they learned from their readers' responses.....?
I'm not surprised at the record turn out to the Tory Conference - I suspect many members will feel May is 'one of us' - something they never really felt with Cameron (let alone Osborne) for all his political skill....
On a wardrobe note, while the Mail story observes May at 60 (today) is the oldest PM since Thatcher, I don't recall Thatcher wearing skinny jeans:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3817450/Theresa-arrives-Birmingham-Tory-party-conference-Prime-Minister-police-blanket-city-2-5MILLION-security-operation.html
To state the obvious, no such principles are agreed at Cabinet level, and it's not clear that May herself has a detailed vision. Presumably the "how hard is your Brexit?" shibboleth will be assessed a thousand times in the light of whether each particular repeal or retention is needed to facilitate trade with the EU at the expense of someone's view of essential sovereignty in respect of a particular matter. These are arguments that will be played out in the media, in fringe meetings, online campaigns, backbench speeches.... all before the bill is even written.
Best case seems to be that a bill is announced by HMQ in the spring but finalised (drafted) by the autumn. Then it has to get through both houses. The Commons will ultimately wave it through for fear of the wrath of the 52 per cent, no matter how badly drafted it is (this political reality is why the warfare will be so intense during the drafting phase). The Lords, however, cares rather less about electoral wrath, and will resist passing bad legislation - and given the complexity, ambiguity about aims, and uncertainty about the position the EU will adopt, this will be bad legislation.
I'm not sure whether May is determined to get it done and will play the Parliament Act; or is adopting the Cameron strategy of proposing something popular but undesirable with the aim that someone else will block it, reaping the electoral punishment for anti-populism (see Scottish referenda passim) but neither of those possibilities leads to Royal Assent and hence A50 before the end of 2017.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/01/theresa-may-to-propose-great-repeal-bill-to-unwind-eu-laws
Potentially significant as he seems to have no answers. Anyway, there's a fair chance there are more leaks to come.
I've laid more trump at 3.85.
And:
Here's the Manifesto commitment to "respect the outcome". Under Salisbury convention, would a Repeal Act still need HL approval?
His 'rethink' is:
Reading the (far better) Sunday Times report it looks like the challenge will still happen because the Act will postdate triggering A50.
The Legal position may be unchanged, but I suspect the politics is changed - MPs now have a vote - on repealing the 1972 European Communities Act
I think he's an obnoxious git - but he's tapped into the fears and concerns of those left behind by globalisation - and demonising them won't change their minds.
Try not to laugh when it happens.
That's pretty much his USP
Which is why calling them names is spectacularly unsuited to getting them to change their minds.
Even if it does make you feel better about yourself.
As Lady Violet (Maggie Smith's character in Downton Abbey) observed
'Does it ever get cold on the moral high ground'?
Look at it from the point of view of the Trump waverers. Clinton is Establishment, careless with security e-mails, very careful with her own funding, and possibly suffering from a hidden illness. But Trump is possibly too dangerous to have as POTUS.
The Democrats' clinching argument is this. "See that bag of poo over there, that's you that is." The words of a seven-year-old having a tantrum. Does that clinch the deal for you?
Second will it make it more likely that Russia will become more expansionist in say Ukraine and the Baltic States?
And that's just for starters.
its more 'Stop voting for that crazy racist over there who hates women. DO NOT GIVE HIM ACCESS TO NUCLEAR WEOPENS'.
And BBC News: http://www.bbc.com/news/uk
....not bad for a 'sop'......
When Labour won the general election no one suggested it was time to shoot all the Tories (well maybe MacMao did), it was just time to do what Labour wanted for a while, and now for the same reasons it time to do what the Leavers want for while.
Its exactly the same as the bleating north of the border about 45% being nearly a win, and presumably if the referendum had been a little more decisive 35% would have been "nearly a win" as well. Sorry, you cant be a bit in the EU any more than you can be a bit pregnant.
Progress, surely?
What sort of fucking idiot loses a billion dollars running casinos???
Can anyone remember who it was?
And which we saw more of yesterday. It's quite sad to think that some leavers are such utterly poor winnerswhiners ...
"I think you are very much overselling clinton's flaws and underselling trumps."
Not from the point of view of a Tump waverer.
"its more 'Stop voting for that crazy racist over there who hates women. DO NOT GIVE HIM ACCESS TO NUCLEAR WEOPENS'."
Is better and is more the official Democrat positIon, but needs to be more nuanced. But many Democrat supporters can't stop reverting to the seven-year-old.
Even a few formerly-rational Remainers couldn't stop themselves from reverting during Brexit. It's totally counterproductive and pointless.
Remain made some good points during Brexit, but the personal abuse could have cost them some vital votes.
They are both also very arrogant, very rude and clearly not possessed of high intelligence although both are also clearly above average. Not that that's necessarily a handicap - intellectually the Bushes were giants compared to most presidents of the 20th century (yes, really) and neither were (to put it mildly) great successes.
Moreover, whichever one gets in will surely face a very hostile Republican congress which will be out to block them at every turn. Given that Trump has zero experience of administration and Hilary's experience consists pretty much exclusively of a series of total and unmitigated fiascos (healthcare, Libya) we can expect a presidency where very little actually happens.
So this election probably boils down to whether you want a woman or a man in charge. Trump is helpfully making this easy for the Democrats by being a complete chauvinist, while Clinton is equally helpfully switching off moderate republicans by describing them in shall we say rather lurid terms.
Bluntly, the best way to make money on this election is probably to bet on a very low turnout as the party of 'they're all a bunch of scumbags' wins the vote handsomely. Any figure for under 60% should be free money, and anything for under 50% seems value.
That Act is likely to be more straightforward than some are suggesting. It will need to repeal the ECA and any other provisions giving supremacy to EU law, to repeal any obligation on our Courts to follow CJE decisions, to provide that notwithstanding that EU legislation remains in force until Parliament decides otherwise and it may determine where some of the recovered legislative competence goes. I suspect the various Parliaments and Assemblies will all get a cut. I don't expect it to look to rewrite our substantive law in any area.
Only 37% voted for a hard Brexit. For what does leaving the EU mean other than a hard Brexit? .....
I bet that a fair proportion of the 37% did not appreciate the implications of what they were doing. ......
How can a nation such as ours be so stupid? To coin a phrase, we need our country back. Our sovereign parliament must veto this absurd and self-destructive policy.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/02/corbynistas-may-have-majority-but-brexiters-dont?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_a-politics_b-gdnukpolitics
It's a good dead cat however and will keep the bent banana and incandescent light bulb frothers distracted.
His name is not McMao.
It is Maodonnell.
That sounds like the start of a song. But it obviously can't have a tune or meter as both are capitalist bourgeois constructs that we should never ever use.
Old Maodonnell had a farm. But that was far too bourgeois for him, so he collectivised it with innumerable other farms. This meant they could sit around talking high matters of politics all day and throwing stones at the sparrows, as a result of which the crops failed and they all starved.
Ee-I EE-I o.
Must be my memory then, as I can only vaguely remember it being mentioned or discussed.
Ho hum.
Washington Examiner
Hillary Clinton referred to Sanders fans as frustrated basement-dwellers in newly revealed audio https://t.co/RX59okwYcO https://t.co/mv9M01tz67
And on that farm he had no pigs EIEIO
Because it is a safe space for muslims EIEOO
And on that farm he had no cows EIEIO
Because the dairy industry is dependent on the veal trade EIEIO
But on that farm he had an arms cache EIEIO
To fight the British Imperialists EIEIO
Which is why it will be so hilarious and good for democracy if he won. The people of the USA will have unequivocally given the finger to diversity and equality mongering safe spacing phobiaising multi culti taking offence hunting political correctness.
Whether he will actually be any good is something to worry about later. At least he wont be poking the bear (putin) with a stick, which makes us all safer.
Apparently, @WikiLeaks will release Hillary stuff on Wednesday.
Tune into next week’s episode of America 2016! https://t.co/as9sWMOLPR
It's almost as though they're not the great warrior for freedom and truth that they think they are ...
http://www.people.com/article/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-wedding-photo
Both will buy and sell in their own interests. Two peas in a pod.
The question is whether the same type of voters who unusually turned out to vote for Brexit, also turn out to vote for Trump.
I'm very angry with WikiLeaks and the Guardian - they've put a member of my family in somewhat of a difficult position.
Rusbridger and Leigh ought to be in jail over the 'accidental' publication of the password.
Something new and unambiguously criminal might impact the race, but it seems unlikely they have anything like that. While she's not exactly Einstein, she's not stupid and she knows the difference between dishonesty and criminality.
Edit - the other thing I suppose might make a difference is if they have information that she is hiding a life-threatening illness. That would leave all those who hate her free to vote for in effect President Kaine. Assange of course wouldn't realise that, but it might deliver a Dem landslide!
Non-voters, and children, don't count towards the outcome.
But Dr Foxinsoxuk absolutely owned me on the lyrics front!
Is it fire up the quattro, back to the 70s! Or fire up the gas ovens, back to the 40s? Because it seems to me that once you're on it it's a mightily slippery slope.
"BBC sacked me for being a white man... even though I work in radio: The Now Show comic was told he was being axed to make way for more women and diversity"
http://dailym.ai/2dFlTEU.
Ordinary working and lower middle class white people and Christians on both side of the atlantic (and not a few people of colour are unsympathetic) who in general have always been some of the most tolerant people in the world....
...are sick to the back teeth of being slandered and monstered, having to be careful what they say lest they utter a forbidden word....
By corrupt progressives who want to impose an equality in the outcome that leaves them in the driving seat as the arbiters of that equality.
Farage is a bit of a tit, Trump is an arsehole, however you dont fill a trebuchet with fragrant flowers when you send it over the enemy cities walls, you fill it with diseased filth because diseased filth will do the job.
As you suggest, evidence that she's got months to live might ironically help her out, if people think she'll quickly make way for Kaine.
At the very least it was gross incompetence.