Last week we also saw a graph showing the swing back to the government from this stage 22 months out and I think it was Rod Crosby our swingologist who observed that if usual service applies in 2015 David Cameron will achieve a respectable majority.
I said no such thing. I made the observation that the Tories were 22 points ahead five years ago, and finished 7 points ahead in 2010. If the same movement occurred from now the Tories would be 9 points ahead in 2015. (which might be enough for a majority). I also said that I don't believe they will do that well. Extrapolating from one data point is daft. The point I was trying to make was that Labour's lead is anaemic, and the Tories probably will win the popular vote in 2015.
Mr Dickson - A question for you . Do you know if the Scottish referendum votes will be counted/announced on a constituency or council area basis ?
Beyond my sphere of knowledge Mark. To be honest, I'm pretty sure that hasn't been decided yet. However, I'd be very surprised if it wasn't by council area.
Was it not the case that both of the devolution referendums (1979 post-legislative and 1997 pre-legislative) were counted on a council area basis (in the case of 1979 when we had a two tier system, I think it was done by the larger regional units)?
The Referendum Bill identifies the Convener of the Electoral Management Board (EMB) as the Chief Counting Officer for the Referendum. So, that is Mary Pitcaithly, the Chief Executive at Falkirk Council. Why not drop her an email?
In Major's second election his share of the two-party share declined by 13.4 percentage points, to 41.5%. A similar decline for Cameron would put him on 42.1% of the two-party share, which would be about 27.4% on a static two-party share, against Labour's 37.7%. Miliband just short of a 100-seat majority...
Miliband is no Blair...
Are you suggesting that the political colossus Gordon Brown was a more formidable opponent for Cameron in 2010 than Kinnock faced in John Major in 1992?
Are you Gabble in disguise?
Brown started with a 20 seat advantage given Scotland alone.
Clearly disappointing that Cameron didn't do better there, but you can't just his overall performance baed on one region
Does anyone know the last time that WTI was marked higher then Brent? Normally Texas-crude is sold at discount but could the opposite happen...?
These events must have an impact on English Scots independence? I can only rationalise that the current market is due to Egypt (and her rucktions): Scotland's Parish Council must be happy with the Morsi situation, no...?
Kitty Donaldson @kitty_donaldson Ever wondered how many spies the UK has? In 2011/12 GCHQ employed 6,132 people, MI5 3,961 and MI6 3,200. Figures in today's ISC report
Which tells you nothing about the number of spies that the UK has.
Seems rEds spinners have been whining to the Sun for calling pmqs a 3-3 draw.
Desperate times for rEd.
LOL! So now we know how Mike S came to his silly 1/10 6/10 score - Red's heavies have been putting the screw's on our favourite Bedfordshire based pensioner. :O
Twas LibDem policy .... perhaps Vince is the heir of Maggie ....
Titters ....
Thatcher blocked the sell off of Royal Mail
Indeed she did. Even more remarkable then !!
So St. Vince is MORE of a free marketeer than the Blessed St. Margaret?
Who would have thunk it!
Ssshhh .... whisper it quietly, else my old friend "Easterross" will have a fit of the vapours as he's still of the view that Vince remains an unreconstructed Glasgow socialist and represents a dangerous form of infiltration within the Coalition.
Seems rEds spinners have been whining to the Sun for calling pmqs a 3-3 draw.
Desperate times for rEd.
LOL! So now we know how Mike S came to his silly 1/10 6/10 score - Red's heavies have been putting the screw's on our favourite Bedfordshire based pensioner. :O
I find it creepy - mess with us and we'll mess with your private life. Sure you can make a case for it being in the public interest (thank you friendly MP for doing the Sun a favour, that wont hurt you) but can you imagine them making such a deal about a similar affair between lawyers involved in a different case?
I take myself away for a couple of hours and to my alarm am now finding myself 'linked' to lorry-drivers. I swear that my predilection for yorkie bars is confined to the privacy of the Hersham dungeon as I tunefully hum along to
OK, that's the serious business. As for the trivia, I agree with GIN that both Dave and Ed were equally matched. The VI impact of the Unite/wider funding issue is negligible, but we await to see whether Ed's personal ratings are affected (MORI and YouGov on Sundays) and whether Labour is seen as a more divided party. We do need an ICM and it's a shame that Populus only feature withy Lord A's infequent mega-polls.
And in the context of an offensive question, Hague had every right to term Jamieson a stupid woman, in the same way as, say, to pick a name, Toby Perkins is a deeply unpleasant man.
In Major's second election his share of the two-party share declined by 13.4 percentage points, to 41.5%. A similar decline for Cameron would put him on 42.1% of the two-party share, which would be about 27.4% on a static two-party share, against Labour's 37.7%. Miliband just short of a 100-seat majority...
Miliband is no Blair...
Are you suggesting that the political colossus Gordon Brown was a more formidable opponent for Cameron in 2010 than Kinnock faced in John Major in 1992?
Are you Gabble in disguise?
Brown started with a 20 seat advantage given Scotland alone.
Clearly disappointing that Cameron didn't do better there, but you can't just his overall performance baed on one region
Now you're singling out Scotland to explain Cameron's Kinnockness? Why not single out the South East to explain Kinnock's Cameronness?
No I'm singling out Scotland to say why Major had an advantage over Cameron. Looking at headline figures without thought is rarely productive
I think I prefer UKIP maj to LD maj. Getting one seat is hard, but there must be a point where that flips and they get loads. Faragasm leading to: UKIP 35 Con 20 Lab 20 or something would be a majority, wouldn't it?
UKIP 33 Con 20 Lab 20
... would result in a UKIP majority of 52 (according to Baxter).
Right, and playing around with it you can give Labour a bit more without needing to give UKIP more than 34%.
An unappealing mudfight between the main parties, a rogue poll setting off a Cleggasmtastic bandwagon effect, an unexpectedly good ground game and they take one voter in three from each of the main parties' 2010 scores. Not at all beyond the bounds of possibility.
Whereas a LibDem majority - how on earth could that happen?
None that come to mind where Cameron was always going to do much better than Major. (Haven't checked, mind)
I take it as read that you havent checked, Charles. You never check. Labour seats in Scotland in 1992: 49 - Labour seats in Scotland in 2010 - 41. Behold the 20 seat bounce!
Seems rEds spinners have been whining to the Sun for calling pmqs a 3-3 draw.
Desperate times for rEd.
LOL! So now we know how Mike S came to his silly 1/10 6/10 score - Red's heavies have been putting the screw's on our favourite Bedfordshire based pensioner. :O
I wasn't insulting you, I was insulting your 1/10 to 6/10 score.
None that come to mind where Cameron was always going to do much better than Major. (Haven't checked, mind)
I take it as read that you havent checked, Charles. You never check. Labour seats in Scotland in 1992: 49 - Labour seats in Scotland in 2010 - 41. Behold the 20 seat bounce!
I didn't check, but my memory was correct (that's why I don't need to check). Tory seats in Scotland in 1992: 11 - Tory seats in Scotland in 2010 - 1. Behold Brown's 20 seats relative advantage!
On PMQ's,no one won with the the 2 leaders shouty slinging match and the uncontrollable commons ,if the british public watching that,I get a feeling a plague on all your houses.
I didn't check, but my memory was correct (that's why I don't need to check). Tory seats in Scotland in 1992: 11 - Tory seats in Scotland in 2010 - 1. Behold Brown's 20 seats relative advantage!
Oh dear, Charles. Now you cant do sums? Labour advantage over Tories in Scotland in 1992: 38 Labour advantage over Tories in Scotland in 2010: 40
Now, here comes the science part (so I'll slow it down for you): 2 < 20
"Whereas a LibDem majority - how on earth could that happen? "
Coup by the Egyptian military ?!?
Actually I have a sort-of serious one, which is a political realignment, probably triggered by a Tory leadership change, where centrists from both the main parties join the Liberal Democrats.
Ed Miliband has evidently stopped the rot. The summary that tim quotes in the Spectator blog is about right:
"Yesterday’s speech combined with today’s performance at PMQs has put Miliband in a far better position. This crisis no longer looks like being one that could engulf his leadership."
So this was one of those rare occasions where a draw at Prime MInister's Questions was a win for the Leader of the Opposition. I leave it to others to judge how much of a triumph it is for the Leader of the Opposition when he can reflect that it no longer looks like a crisis that could engulf his leadership.
A spectator at the Tour de France has thrown urine all over Mark Cavendish
Brings a whole new meaning to "taking the piss" !!
I SO wish we had the "LIKE" button right now.
Sorry folks but I cannot see anything funny in that episode (I'm assuming it's true). To my mind it falls in a category I suppose could be described as "forceful or violent forcing of oneself onto another person," the worst examples of which are murder, rape and violent bodily harm. Who's to know that the perpetrator doesn't have some sort of disease accompanying a twisted brain?
I didn't check, but my memory was correct (that's why I don't need to check). Tory seats in Scotland in 1992: 11 - Tory seats in Scotland in 2010 - 1. Behold Brown's 20 seats relative advantage!
Oh dear, Charles. Now you cant do sums? Labour advantage over Tories in Scotland in 1992: 38 Labour advantage over Tories in Scotland in 2010: 40
Now, here comes the science part (so I'll slow it down for you): 2 < 20
It was looking at absolute numbers of seats that Major vs Cameron won:
Major (1992): 336 Cameron (2010): 306
Part of the gap being explained by Scotland.
As an aside - checking the results I saw the Scottish Jacobites nominated two candidates in 2010. Presumably JackW and Mrs JackW?
What an ill-tempered thread. I Ed Miliband has evidently stopped the rot. The summary that tim quotes in the Spectator blog is about right:
"Yesterday’s speech combined with today’s performance at PMQs has put Miliband in a far better position. This crisis no longer looks like being one that could engulf his leadership."
So this was one of those rare occasions where a draw at Prime MInister's Questions was a win for the Leader of the Opposition. I leave it to others to judge how much of a triumph it is for the Leader of the Opposition when he can reflect that it no longer looks like a crisis that could engulf his leadership.
rEd has slowed his bleeding. But it is a long way from where he wants to be at this point.
Also his conference which was supposed to be the launchpad for policy (remember that stuff) will now be dominated by union horsetrading.
Why is Mr Smithson more concerned about a Tour de France spectator dousing Chris Froome in urine than a weak LotO trying to smear the Prime Minister with political faeces?
My view is that both Cameron and Froome are born winners and can therefore withstand anything thrown at them.
Miliband backtracks and indicates that MPs could keep current company directorships Ed Miliband appeared to water down plans to stop MPs having second jobs and company directorships.
A cap of £50K seems reasonable. Even our parties are unlikely to fall over themselves too much for such a sum. But we need to look at the American experience. Capping individual payments seems to have created a new species of bundlers who manage to contrive to bring together groups of donations, many of them funded from an original source.
These bundlers seemed to have quite a high profile and presumably considerable behind the scenes influence in the last US elections. Is this really where we want to go? At least with the present system it is usually clear who has paid what (although I recall Labour having a problem with a major benefactor who wanted to remain anonymous before the last election).
I asked this yesterday but got no answer: what's the difference betwen a paid second role and an unpaid second role for MPs, apart from envy? If it's wrong for MPs to take external paid employment, it must also be wrong for them to take charitable roles.
There never was a doubt that Root would be in the side but personally I think I would rather have had Compton than Bairstow. I am very much hoping he is about to prove me wrong.
I asked this yesterday but got no answer: what's the difference betwen a paid second role and an unpaid second role for MPs, apart from envy? If it's wrong for MPs to take external paid employment, it must also be wrong for them to take charitable roles.
It's chaff and distraction.
Tory donors get to have dinner with Dave at No 10. It makes them feel important, makes them feel connected, they can impress their friends ("when I was at..." etc). But in the real world it gets them the square root of bugger all.
Union donations get them real influence and power in the organisation.
But Labour doesn't want to talk about that. So they talk about something else and the useful idiots in the media run after them.
Miliband backtracks and indicates that MPs could keep current company directorships Ed Miliband appeared to water down plans to stop MPs having second jobs and company directorships.
My dear antifrank, I am worried aboiut your reputation for lateral thinking.
Ed is attempting to cover up an alleged incident of electoral fraud by escalating it into a national debate on party funding and process. All he has achieved is to provide the media with a licence and incentive to scrutinise all Labour party selections and funding arrangements.
Before this week, a complaint about process from a losing candidate in a constituency selection would have been ignored by most national editors and producers. From now on all such complaints will fuel front page news and local disputees will populate the seats of our political broadcasts.
Ed may think he has won the week, but the weak will not inherit the earth. (tee-hee)
Same old, same old from our batsmen. Giving wickets away. As stated before the start today, our propensity to begin Ashes series badly made the Australians favourites for me in this game. Once again, it will be down to our bowlers to get us out of a self-inflicted mess.
'Miliband backtracks and indicates that MPs could keep current company directorships Ed Miliband appeared to water down plans to stop MPs having second jobs and company directorships.'
Got to be a record u-turn even by Red's standards. The comedy circus continues.
I asked this yesterday but got no answer: what's the difference betwen a paid second role and an unpaid second role for MPs, apart from envy? If it's wrong for MPs to take external paid employment, it must also be wrong for them to take charitable roles.
Conflict of interest, shorely?
Although the real good-government, anti-corruption move would be to give MPs an exceedingly generous pension, but ban them from taking a paid job from anyone for five or ten years after they leave parliament.
I'm pleased to see that Ed Miliband is so more efficient than Gordon Brown. It took Gordon several weeks to U-turn on MPs' second jobs. Ed's done it in two days. That's a very impressive improvement in productivity.
And Manchester, this years Tory Party conference location is where Dave arranged for a different woman MP to walk him from his hotel to the hall every morning for the cameras. That was in 2011 when the polling told him he had women problems.
Maybe he can contract it out this year and get Mensch in on a zero hours contract to walk with him.
When the Conference is in Birmingham he arranges the Date Night media spectaculars.
Just like yesterday tim and ed,he likes a few of the ladies to be in the shot with him,this photo of ed walking to the speech yesterday.
I asked this yesterday but got no answer: what's the difference betwen a paid second role and an unpaid second role for MPs, apart from envy? If it's wrong for MPs to take external paid employment, it must also be wrong for them to take charitable roles.
Quite right. If it's wrong for MPs to take second jobs, then MPs should be barred from accepting office as a Minister of the Crown or Leader of the Opposition. A ban on second jobs is incoherent and irrational.
David Cameron: I did not appoint enough women to Cabinet David Cameron has admitted he has not appointed enough women to his Cabinet and revealed his wife urges him to promote female talent.
Comments
We'll make a Thatcherite out of him yet!
Quelle horror.
Titters ....
'Patrick O'Flynn @oflynnexpress
Cam says Murray "first British player to win Wimbledon for 77 years". EMil reminds him of Virginia Wade. #pmqs'
Great to see that Red gets the big calls right.
I've laid 'Alexandra' @ around 5/2 for the best part of £400
Am I an idiot?
Was it not the case that both of the devolution referendums (1979 post-legislative and 1997 pre-legislative) were counted on a council area basis (in the case of 1979 when we had a two tier system, I think it was done by the larger regional units)?
The Referendum Bill identifies the Convener of the Electoral Management Board (EMB) as the Chief Counting Officer for the Referendum. So, that is Mary Pitcaithly, the Chief Executive at Falkirk Council. Why not drop her an email?
Please let us know the answer.
'PolHome's supersharp @smashmore_PH spotted this first. RT "Clearly see Hague mouthing "stupid woman, stupid woman" at Lab's Cathy Jamieson"'
Oh didums,pass the Kleenex.
Are you Gabble in disguise?
Brown started with a 20 seat advantage given Scotland alone.
Clearly disappointing that Cameron didn't do better there, but you can't just his overall performance baed on one region
Labour all over the shop on the issue.
Bercow praises St. Vince - 52 questions answered in 38 minutes .... stick your halo in place Vince.
Cross-over:
Does anyone know the last time that WTI was marked higher then Brent? Normally Texas-crude is sold at discount but could the opposite happen...?
These events must have an impact on English Scots independence? I can only rationalise that the current market is due to Egypt (and her rucktions): Scotland's Parish Council must be happy with the Morsi situation, no...?
Who would have thunk it!
Desperate times for rEd.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5005772/Leverson-affair-lawyers-investigated.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JuyLTDAC7fE
OK, that's the serious business. As for the trivia, I agree with GIN that both Dave and Ed were equally matched. The VI impact of the Unite/wider funding issue is negligible, but we await to see whether Ed's personal ratings are affected (MORI and YouGov on Sundays) and whether Labour is seen as a more divided party. We do need an ICM and it's a shame that Populus only feature withy Lord A's infequent mega-polls.
And in the context of an offensive question, Hague had every right to term Jamieson a stupid woman, in the same way as, say, to pick a name, Toby Perkins is a deeply unpleasant man.
Why not single out the South East to explain Kinnock's Cameronness?
No I'm singling out Scotland to say why Major had an advantage over Cameron. Looking at headline figures without thought is rarely productive
An unappealing mudfight between the main parties, a rogue poll setting off a Cleggasmtastic bandwagon effect, an unexpectedly good ground game and they take one voter in three from each of the main parties' 2010 scores. Not at all beyond the bounds of possibility.
Whereas a LibDem majority - how on earth could that happen?
No need to get upset.
They're right.
Kelly said a £10,000 cap would cost £23million a year
http://www.public-standards.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/13th_Report___Political_party_finance_FINAL_PDF_VERSION_18_11_11.pdf
Have Labour costed the extra cost to the tax payer of a £5,000 cap?
How many guesses do I get?
"Whereas a LibDem majority - how on earth could that happen? "
Coup by the Egyptian military ?!?
Now, here comes the science part (so I'll slow it down for you): 2 < 20
Cameron can turn this back right on labour with the labour wanting the british people paying for party funding.
Noted.
Ed Miliband has evidently stopped the rot. The summary that tim quotes in the Spectator blog is about right:
"Yesterday’s speech combined with today’s performance at PMQs has put Miliband in a far better position. This crisis no longer looks like being one that could engulf his leadership."
So this was one of those rare occasions where a draw at Prime MInister's Questions was a win for the Leader of the Opposition. I leave it to others to judge how much of a triumph it is for the Leader of the Opposition when he can reflect that it no longer looks like a crisis that could engulf his leadership.
the worst examples of which are murder, rape and violent bodily harm. Who's to know that the perpetrator doesn't have some sort of disease accompanying a twisted brain?
Major (1992): 336
Cameron (2010): 306
Part of the gap being explained by Scotland.
As an aside - checking the results I saw the Scottish Jacobites nominated two candidates in 2010. Presumably JackW and Mrs JackW?
Also his conference which was supposed to be the launchpad for policy (remember that stuff) will now be dominated by union horsetrading.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/matthewholehouse/100225905/labours-next-scandal-after-falkirk-strange-goings-on-in-enfield-southgate/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23252903
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/story/35939/
Labour really are the nasty party,saying hague made a sexist remark by calling a labour woman MP - 'stupid woman' in the commons.
What if Yvette cooper had said stupid man to a male MP,nothing would be said.
It turned out so well for our economy that I am really surprised that you can doubt the disciple.
Ed Miliband’s earnings cap for MPs would drive out the last of New Labour’s Big Beasts
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/matthewholehouse/100225739/ed-milibands-earnings-cap-for-mps-would-drive-out-the-last-of-new-labours-big-beasts/
A coincidence, no doubt.
My view is that both Cameron and Froome are born winners and can therefore withstand anything thrown at them.
Labour activists not happy with London MEP stitch up.
Ed Miliband appeared to water down plans to stop MPs having second jobs and company directorships.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/10171453/Miliband-backtracks-and-indicates-that-MPs-could-keep-current-company-directorships.html
@jimmurphymp @johnprescott - FYI Hague just answered Point of Order on this, said he muttered many things under his breath ie didn't deny
Who gives a sh!t ;-) get a life labour
These bundlers seemed to have quite a high profile and presumably considerable behind the scenes influence in the last US elections. Is this really where we want to go? At least with the present system it is usually clear who has paid what (although I recall Labour having a problem with a major benefactor who wanted to remain anonymous before the last election).
Edit David Abrahams.
Tory donors get to have dinner with Dave at No 10. It makes them feel important, makes them feel connected, they can impress their friends ("when I was at..." etc). But in the real world it gets them the square root of bugger all.
Union donations get them real influence and power in the organisation.
But Labour doesn't want to talk about that. So they talk about something else and the useful idiots in the media run after them.
Is this a new record?
It's usually Ed Balls contradicting him - perhaps he thought he'd get his contradiction in first?
Ed is attempting to cover up an alleged incident of electoral fraud by escalating it into a national debate on party funding and process. All he has achieved is to provide the media with a licence and incentive to scrutinise all Labour party selections and funding arrangements.
Before this week, a complaint about process from a losing candidate in a constituency selection would have been ignored by most national editors and producers. From now on all such complaints will fuel front page news and local disputees will populate the seats of our political broadcasts.
Ed may think he has won the week, but the weak will not inherit the earth. (tee-hee)
'Miliband backtracks and indicates that MPs could keep current company directorships
Ed Miliband appeared to water down plans to stop MPs having second jobs and company directorships.'
Got to be a record u-turn even by Red's standards.
The comedy circus continues.
Although the real good-government, anti-corruption move would be to give MPs an exceedingly generous pension, but ban them from taking a paid job from anyone for five or ten years after they leave parliament.
http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=ed+miliband+photos+9th+july+2013&qs=n&form=QBIR&pq=ed+miliband+photos+9th+july+2013&sc=0-19&sp=-1&sk=#view=detail&id=F1D4981BBCC8F18962F6DFAB492D61F6E6B59DC6&selectedIndex=4
Love the title for the photo - Ed Miliband mends union mess with Sex and the City strut
* Make-up by bisto? Follow the gravy-trail....
** Al-Beeb Propaganda Channel "24".
I find it telling that Labour raised a complaint against Hague by means of a "point of order" and not a "point of fact".
Oppose on process not substance seems to be the opposition's tactics.
It is probably illegal anyway..it is a basic right to be able to earn more money by taking extra work, regardless of the principle occupation
Kate Green @KateGreenSU
'We believe the bedroom tax should be dropped and we believe it should be dropped today' @LiamByrneMP
Weak labour ? It seems the labour backbenches getting fed up with ed and ed's follow my tory policy.