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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A former odds-on favourite for the Democratic nomination says the LDs could form the next UK government
Back in late 2003, not too long after the Iraq War, the governor of Vermont, Howard Dean, was causing a stir on the WH2004 betting markets. He had become just about the first politician to tap into the power of the internet and was running a very effective online campaign building up hundreds of thousands of supporters.
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https://morningconsult.com/2016/09/28/clinton-bests-trump-debate-half-likely-voters-say/
They prefer out of date voodoo polling from neutral sources such as Breibart.
It is just conceivable that the Lib Dems might form the next government - the scenario runs something like 1981-2, where the Alliance was regularly polling 40%+ before they dropped off (pre-Falklands, contrary to myth) - but if so, it'll be despite their stance on Brexit, not because of it.
Harry Cole
Errr: "All holocaust denial is acceptable." https://t.co/0sgFf0RSV0
Isn't dean the one who got partly derailed through the bad luck of broadcast of him yelling at a speech making him look crazy, though given he was before a noisy packed crowd to those there it was appropriate?
https://youtu.be/l6i-gYRAwM0
This is hilarious.
'There were early efforts to run a more standard form of general election debate-prep camp, led by Roger Ailes, the ousted Fox News chief, at Mr. Trump’s golf course in Bedminster, N.J. But Mr. Trump found it hard to focus during those meetings, according to multiple people briefed on the process who requested anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. That left Mr. Ailes, who at the time was deeply distracted by his removal from Fox and the news media reports surrounding it, discussing his own problems as well as recounting political war stories, according to two people present for the sessions.'
Will Clinton wear Blue or White at the next Debate? I'm going with White.
Quiet news day, eh? Not like we could have had a thread, on, oh I don't know, the Conference speech of the Leader of the Opposition?
If Brexit becomes unpopular, which it will if companies start closing UK operations, and the LibDems or a new LD/SDP Alliance gets to 40% at the appropriate time, then FPTP will deliver.
Now, that would beat 50:1!
Morning Consult: Clinton + 23
You Guv: Clinton + 27
CNN: Clinton + 25
PPP: Clinton + 11
Trump didn't win. Only question now is how it effects polling
https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2010/aug/06/fund-impact-immigration-scrapped
I'm not sure his political judgment is razor sharp these days...
YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!
https://mobile.twitter.com/MattChorley/status/781121551718645761/photo/1
Dear Leader indeed.
As things stand now, Lab+LD is routinely less than Con. In other words, the Lib Dems (or Labour) can only win by gaining votes back from Con and UKIP (and perhaps SNP), or from former non-voters, but that really is wishful thinking.
But where Dean is utterly wrong is that the Lib Dems might win off the back of a 'No Brexit' campaign. Firstly, it won't be practically possible to stop it; once A50's invoked, that's it, the clock is ticking. And secondly, even if it were possible, the British public simply don't feel strongly enough about it in sufficient numbers for it to act as a vote switching prompt.
http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/results-2015/
https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=trudeau election liberals
It also helps, in that the Conservatives have lost their USP as the party of business and commerce. How they ever thought they could turn their back on the European market and stability; and yet maintain their reputation for being business-friendly beats me. All their leaders seem to have gone bonkers.
So if both Labour and the Tories are going down the drain, it is the Lib Dems who will have to step up to the plate. Mr Dean may be foreign, but he is not necessarily wrong.
Malaysia Airlines flight MH17.
It seems that the thorough report Dutch investigators managed to produce was partly with the assistance of the Finns who have Russian BUK missile launchers and which enabled them to be used to test hypotheses against the evidence found in Eastern Ukrainian fields. However the Finnish parliament was unaware of this until yesterday’s report in Dutch newspapers. The secrecy is creating a bit of a hoohah in Helsinki.
Compelling videos from the joint investigation team:
https://youtu.be/Sf6gJ8NDhYA
also: http://www.ruutu.fi/video/2232494
Politics is the 'art of the possible'. If it's necessary to ditch Brexit or more likely fudge it, then it will be done (A50 or no A50).
https://www.thesun.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/1430040.main_image.jpg
Trump is truly the heir to Palin.
He is referenced daily, yet I have never seen him post!!
She ought to be wearing dresses. A well made dress would do wonders for her appearance. And three-quarter length coats. And she can certainly afford to pay for good quality clothes. But on this she is either blind herself or being advised by blind people with no taste.
Getting rid of (the very nice) Farron is key – he's invisible. They should be making serious overtures to the sensible europhile wings of the Tory and Labour Parties, and kick on from there.
Oh dear. Donald the tax cheat about to go viral
Of course obesity and bad dress sense are not nessecarily damaging with swing voters in Ohio or Florida...
Where are Avery's yellow boxes? Can't be a***ed to look myself for that spreadsheet.
Well, it would be nice (though I would say that, wouldn't I ?) As I recall from the heady days of the 1980s if the LDs got to about 36% the disparity between votes cast and seats won would start to unwind dramatically.
If the Party got 45% and the Conservatives and Labour 25%, the LDs would win almost every seat. The resulting majority Government would introduce STV for all elections in its first Queen's Speech.
More seriously, there is a huge amount of water to go under countless bridges before we reach the 2020 GE and if I were a supporter of either UKIP or the LDs, I would fancy my party's chances of tearing some chunks out of the May Bloc by then. It seems implausible the Brexit proposals will please all of the people all of the time and that, along with the day to day screw ups of Government, should start bringing the Conservative vote share back down into the 30s.
Labour will remain entrenched in their heartlands but unable to make much headway beyond so those disillusioned with or dissatisfied by Curly, Mo and Larry leading the negotiations, will be looking elsewhere for the alternatives. "Hard Brexit" may get some on here all unnecessary but others view the prospect with more concern.
The next GE is likely to be in 2020. In all probability, Brexit will be complete by then, so a 'No Brexit' policy makes no sense. A 'let's reapply for EU membership' would be possible and if Brexit is unpopular by then, might make sense, though I still harbour exterme reservations that it'd be an election-winning policy.
Even if the election's earlier and Brexit is not complete, A50 will have been invoked. No matter what a new British government might want, the UK would then only be staying in the EU if all other 27 countries want it, and given the problems the UK's caused over the past four decades, I simply don't see how that happens.
Politics is indeed the art of the possible, but 'No Brexit' isn't possible once A50's been invoked.
http://order-order.com/2016/09/28/new-jackie-walker-facebook-posts-holocaust-not-the-preserve-of-jews/
Goodbye property rights…?
Trousers rarely look good on women of her age and build in a formal context.
(I am available to advise the women in our Cabinet as well. Though not La May who has found a style for herself which, generally, works.)
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/revealed-apple-to-create-stunning-new-hq-at-battersea-power-station-a3356201.html