Their own rulebook, maybe. But they seem utterly clueless about the rules the voters will follow....
I really don't think even they believe they could win in 2020. d.
As David
FWIW if there is one - some left-wing version of Tony Blair, a British and more socialist-leaning version of Trudeau Jr or one of the Kennedies - then it'd probably be next but one. Imagine whoever is anointed next, say Lisa Nandy, seems more likely in the gameplan to be a "steadying the ship" candidate until The One comes along.
The 'One' seems to be Clive Lewis, Lisa Nandy of course backed Owen Smith and so is really a Tory! A more likely 'steadying the ship' candidate is John McDonnell. However Trudeau Jr and the Kennedies, Obama and Blair were all reasonably centrist, not full on socialist like Corbyn and his acolytes. For Corbynism to win we would need something like the 25% unemployment rate Greece had when Syriza won in January 2015 rather than the 5% unemployment rate we have now
Not sure if Clive Lewis is The One, or even whether The One is in parliament yet.
And yes, I meant someone with persona and popularity like a leftier Blair or Trudeau or Kennedy - but not with the same .
Not sure I'd write Nandy off - she's not a Corbynite but whoever follows Corbyn won't be be a mere continuation. She's of the Left, to the extent that without Corbyn and to some extent Ed M nailing down the coffin of New Labour, she wouldn't be seen as a viable future leader. She isn't a Corbyn fan, but she likes winning and likes competence which may be handy traits in a leader. Only if the Lab selectorate forgive her for her resignation though... Lewis might be more likely. McDonnell might be getting on a bit to be the replacement, but in terms of steady hands and political skills I imagine that some on Labour's parliamentary Left wish that Buggin's Turn to be "no-hope token left-wing candidate" in the 2015 contest had fallen the other way.
Stella.
Stella Creasy? Owen Smith backing Tory
Just suggesting that she may be The One. Her coming is some time off.
Creasy, Umunna and Jarvis would all be names in the mix if Labour ever decides it might like to try and win an election, at the moment however it is far more interested in ensuring the party pays homage to the ghost of Tony Benn!
As David Herdson keeps pointing out - it is a battle over the structures and the succession, for now.
Think of Corbyn as the John the Baptist figure for them. He has preached in the wilderness and ultimately prepared the ground. Then it is a matter of holding on to it long enough for the Messiah to come...
FWIW if there is one - some left-wing version of Tony Blair, a British and more socialist-leaning version of Trudeau Jr or one of the Kennedies - then it'd probably be next but one. Imagine whoever is anointed next, say Lisa Nandy, seems more likely in the gameplan to be a "steadying the ship" candidate until The One comes along.
The 'One' seems to be Clive Lewis, Lisa Nandy of course backed Owen Smith and so is really a Tory! A more likely 'steadying the ship' candidate is John McDonnell. However Trudeau Jr and the Kennedies, Obama and Blair were all reasonably centrist, not full on socialist like Corbyn and his acolytes. For Corbynism to win we would need something like the 25% unemployment rate Greece had when Syriza won in January 2015 rather than the 5% unemployment rate we have now
Not sure if Clive Lewis is The One, or even whether The One is in parliament yet.
And yes, I meant someone with persona and popularity like a leftier Blair or Trudeau or Kennedy - but not with the same politics. Against a split Tory party and with an inspirational and credible leader, I don't think it would take 20% unemployment and an economic collapse for someone with the politics of Foot or Benn or Corbyn to be competitive in a GE. It's the "only need to be lucky once" strategy, you have to give the stars a chance to align first. That's why control of structures and succession matter.
Not sure I'd write Nandy off - she's not a Corbynite but whoever follows Corbyn won't be be a mere continuation. She's of the Left, to the extent that without Corbyn and to some extent Ed M nailing down the coffin of New Labour, she wouldn't be seen as a viable future leader. She isn't a Corbyn fan, but she likes winning and likes competence which may be handy traits in a leader. Only if the Lab selectorate forgive her for her resignation though... Lewis might be more likely. McDonnell might be getting on a bit to be the replacement, but in terms of steady hands and political skills I imagine that some on Labour's parliamentary Left wish that Buggin's Turn to be "no-hope token left-wing candidate" in the 2015 contest had fallen the other way.
Stella.
What the shocked moderate Labourites are drinking in Liverpool tonight?
Their own rulebook, maybe. But they seem utterly clueless about the rules the voters will follow....
I really don't think even they believe they could win in 2020. d.
As David
FWIW if there is one - some left-wing version of Tony Blair, a British and more socialist-leaning version of Trudeau Jr or one of the Kennedies - then it'd probably be next but one. Imagine whoever is anointed next, say Lisa Nandy, seems more likely in the gameplan to be a "steadying the ship" candidate until The One comes along.
The 'One' seems to be Clive Lewis, Lisa Nandy of course backed Owen Smith and so is really a Tory! A more likely 'steadying the ship' candidate is John McDonnell. However Trudeau Jr and the Kennedies, Obama and Blair were all reasonably centrist, not full on socialist like Corbyn and his acolytes. For Corbynism to win we would need something like the 25% unemployment rate Greece had when Syriza won in January 2015 rather than the 5% unemployment rate we have now
Not sure if Clive Lewis is The One, or even whether The One is in parliament yet.
A
Not sure I'd write Nandy off - she's not a Corbynite but whoever follows Corbyn won't be be a mere continuation. She's of the Left, to the extent that without Corbyn and to some extent Ed M nailing down the coffin of New Labour, she wouldn't be seen as a viable future leader. She isn't a Corbyn fan, but she likes winning and likes competence which may be handy traits in a leader. Only if the Lab selectorate forgive her for her resignation though... Lewis might be more likely. McDonnell might be getting on a bit to be the replacement, but in terms of steady hands and political skills I imagine that some on Labour's parliamentary Left wish that Buggin's Turn to be "no-hope token left-wing candidate" in the 2015 contest had fallen the other way.
Stella.
Stella Creasy? Owen Smith backing Tory
Just suggesting that she may be The One. Her coming is some time off.
Definitely worth a punt on Stella. But its a long shot as a member of Tory Scum brigade (aren't 90% of the PLP?). Although have the feeling she may just throw the towel in and do something else before the time is right. I saw Clive Lewis on TV on the other day - awful.
It may be we need a second defeat for independence in an #indyref before we can have another non Conservative government. We need the SNP to be detoxed in English eyes before they can act as a CSU to the rest of rUK's left.
Their own rulebook, maybe. But they seem utterly clueless about the rules the voters will follow....
I really don't think even they believe they could win in 2020. d.
As David
FWIW if there is one - some left-wing version of Tony Blair, a British and more socialist-leaning version of Trudeau Jr or one of the Kennedies - then it'd probably be next but one. Imagine whoever is anointed next, say Lisa Nandy, seems more likely in the gameplan to be a "steadying the ship" candidate until The One comes along.
The 'One' seems to be Clive Lewis, Lisa Nandy of course backed Owen Smith and so is really a Tory! A more likely 'steadying the ship' candidate is John McDonnell. However Trudeau Jr and the Kennedies, Obama and Blair were all reasonably centrist, not full on socialist like Corbyn and his acolytes. For Corbynism to win we would need something like the 25% unemployment rate Greece had when Syriza won in January 2015 rather than the 5% unemployment rate we have now
Not sure if Clive Lewis is The One, or even whether The One is in parliament yet.
And yes, I meant someone with persona and popularity like a leftier Blair or Trudeau or Kennedy - but not with the same .
Not sure I'd write Nandy off - she's not a Corbynite but whoever follows Corbyn won't be be a mere continuation. She's of the Left, to the extent that without Corbyn and to some extent Ed M nailing down the coffin of New Labour, she wouldn't be seen as a viable future leader. She isn't a Corbyn fan, but she likes winning and likes competence which may be handy traits in a leader. Only if the Lab selectorate forgive her for her resignation though... Lewis might be more likely. McDonnell might be getting on a bit to be the replacement, but in terms of steady hands and political skills I imagine that some on Labour's parliamentary Left wish that Buggin's Turn to be "no-hope token left-wing candidate" in the 2015 contest had fallen the other way.
Stella.
Stella Creasy? Owen Smith backing Tory
Just suggesting that she may be The One. Her coming is some time off.
Creasy, Umunna and Jarvis would all be names in the mix if Labour ever decides it might like to try and win an election, at the moment however it is far more interested in ensuring the party pays homage to the ghost of Tony Benn!
Don't underestimate the shock of a really bad result, which they probably won't see coming (cf. Clegg). After such a result all bets are off (or on).
Their own rulebook, maybe. But they seem utterly clueless about the rules the voters will follow....
I really don't think even they believe they could win in 2020. d.
As David snip
Not sure if Clive Lewis is The One, or even whether The One is in parliament yet.
And yes, I meant someone with persona and popularity like a leftier Blair or Trudeau or Kennedy - but not with the same .
Not sure I'd write Nandy off - she's not a Corbynite but whoever follows Corbyn won't be be a mere continuation. She's of the Left, to the extent that without Corbyn and to some extent Ed M nailing down the coffin of New Labour, she wouldn't be seen as a viable future leader. She isn't a Corbyn fan, but she likes winning and likes competence which may be handy traits in a leader. Only if the Lab selectorate forgive her for her resignation though... Lewis might be more likely. McDonnell might be getting on a bit to be the replacement, but in terms of steady hands and political skills I imagine that some on Labour's parliamentary Left wish that Buggin's Turn to be "no-hope token left-wing candidate" in the 2015 contest had fallen the other way.
Stella.
Stella Creasy? Owen Smith backing Tory
Just suggesting that she may be The One. Her coming is some time off.
Creasy, Umunna and Jarvis would all be names in the mix if Labour ever decides it might like to try and win an election, at the moment however it is far more interested in ensuring the party pays homage to the ghost of Tony Benn!
Don't underestimate the shock of a really bad result, which they probably won't see coming (cf. Clegg). After such a result all bets are off (or on).
Paul Mason wrote something in NS this week along the lines of young people have no idea what it is like to lose even though you know you are right and your side is virtuous. Spanish Civil war was mentioned. Not sure he was trying to make the same point about the shock of bad result, being as he believes that it is possible given work on the 'movement' that Corbyn will be swept to power by crowds laying flowers at his feet as he enters the gates of No 10, or something along those lines.
Paul Mason wrote something in NS this week along the lines of young people have no idea what it is like to lose even though you know you are right and your side is virtuous. Spanish Civil war was mentioned. Not sure he was trying to make the same point about the shock of bad result, being as he believes that it is possible given work on the 'movement' that Corbyn will be swept to power by crowds laying flowers at his feet as he enters the gates of No 10, or something along those lines.
London most definitely does NOT have "creaking infrastructure". It positively GLEAMS.
Ah - so that's why so many rail services are suspended at weekends! To give them more time to polish the infrastructure ...
Infrastructural pressure is the slow burn issue. Someone somewhere is probably planning some sort of chemical attack on a western major city. Hopefully they will be thwarted; own own secret service seems to have done well in heading off threats of a major incident, and the current modus is random individual attacks.
Just did a one hour panel with UN radio on CBW terrorism. Always the question why CBW rather than HE, guns or knives? There is no Nobel prize for inventiveness in terrorism, or doing it the hard way.
As David Herdson keeps pointing out - it is a battle over the structures and the succession, for now.
Think of Corbyn as the John the Baptist figure for them. He has preached in the wilderness and ultimately prepared the ground. Then it is a matter of holding on to it long enough for the Messiah to come...
FWIW if there is one - some left-wing version of Tony Blair, a British and more socialist-leaning version of Trudeau Jr or one of the Kennedies - then it'd probably be next but one. Imagine whoever is anointed next, say Lisa Nandy, seems more likely in the gameplan to be a "steadying the ship" candidate until The One comes along.
The 'One' seems to be Clive Lewis, Lisa Nandy of course backed Owen Smith and so is really a Tory! A more likely 'steadying the ship' candidate is John McDonnell. However Trudeau Jr and the Kennedies, Obama and Blair were all reasonably centrist, not full on socialist like Corbyn and his acolytes. For Corbynism to win we would need something like the 25% unemployment rate Greece had when Syriza won in January 2015 rather than the 5% unemployment rate we have now
Not sure if Clive Lewis is The One, or even whether The One is in parliament yet.
A
Not sure I'd write Nandy off - she's not a Corbynite but whoever follows Corbyn won't be be a mere continuation. She's of the Left, to the extent that without Corbyn and to some extent Ed M nailing down the coffin of New Labour, she wouldn't be seen as a viable future leader. She isn't a Corbyn fan, but she likes winning and likes competence which may be handy traits in a leader. Only if the Lab selectorate forgive her for her resignation though... Lewis might be more likely. McDonnell might be getting on a bit to be the replacement, but in terms of steady hands and political skills I imagine that some on Labour's parliamentary Left wish that Buggin's Turn to be "no-hope token left-wing candidate" in the 2015 contest had fallen the other way.
Stella.
What the shocked moderate Labourites are drinking in Liverpool tonight?
Blairite Tory scum don't drink Stella: A fine Tuscan Chianti surely?
Their own rulebook, maybe. But they seem utterly clueless about the rules the voters will follow....
I really don't think even they believe they could win in 2020. d.
As David
FWIW if there is one - some left-wing version of Tony Blair, a British and more socialist-leaning version of Trudeau Jr or one of the Kennedies - then it'd probably be next but one. Imagine whoever is anointed next, say Lisa Nandy, seems more likely in the gameplan to be a "steadying the ship" candidate until The One comes along.
The 'One' seems to be Clive Lewis, Lisa Nandy of course backed Owen Smith and so is really a Tory! A more likely 'steadying the ship' candidate is John McDonnell. However Trudeau Jr and the Kennedies, Obama and Blair were all reasonably centrist, not full on socialist like Corbyn and his acolytes. For Corbynism to win we would need something like the 25% unemployment rate Greece had when Syriza won in January 2015 rather than the 5% unemployment rate we have now
Not sure if Clive Lewis is The One, or even whether The One is in parliament yet.
And yes, I meant someone with persona and popularity like a leftier Blair or Trudeau or Kennedy - but not with the same .
Not sure I'd write Nandy off - she's not a Corbynite but whoever follows Corbyn won't be be a mere continuation. She's of the Left, to the extent that without Corbyn and to some extent Ed M nailing down the coffin of New Labour, she wouldn't be seen as a viable future leader. She isn't a Corbyn fan, but she likes winning and likes competence which may be handy traits in a leader.
Stella.
Stella Creasy? Owen Smith backing Tory
Just suggesting that she may be The One. Her coming is some time off.
Creasy, Umunna and Jarvis would all be names in the mix if Labour ever decides it might like to try and win an election, at the moment however it is far more interested in ensuring the party pays homage to the ghost of Tony Benn!
Don't underestimate the shock of a really bad result, which they probably won't see coming (cf. Clegg). After such a result all bets are off (or on).
It will probably take a result at least as bad as the 28% and 209 seats Foot won in 1983 and probably worse for that to happen
Definitely worth a punt on Stella. But its a long shot as a member of Tory Scum brigade (aren't 90% of the PLP?). Although have the feeling she may just throw the towel in and do something else before the time is right. I saw Clive Lewis on TV on the other day - awful.
Deselections aside, how many previously ambitious and rated youngish Labour MPs are going to stand down now it is clear their party membership no longer willing stand for the politics (not just personnel or branding) of New Labour, and that the prospect of government is receding - possibly receding so far into the distance that, should the party membership decide to have a fresh, centrist restart, they'll be tired faces and yesterday's (wo)men anyway? Someone like Chuka could quit parliament at the next GE and head off into a life free from the inconveniences and intrusions of politics and become a very comfortable millionaire. Alternatively he can stick at the politics, but would waste the prime of his life on back benches or in opposition, and play the long game. Which is also a hard game. The temptation to pack it in must be huge.
It may be we need a second defeat for independence in an #indyref before we can have another non Conservative government. We need the SNP to be detoxed in English eyes before they can act as a CSU to the rest of rUK's left.
If Labour got the right leader ie a charismatic moderate, there is no reason they could not get a majority even without the SNP but a general election where that is the case is probably at least a decade away
"I hate to be an alarmist, but Donald Trump could be on course to be elected president of the United States – and the decisive moment may well come on Monday night. That’s when he faces Hillary Clinton in what is expected to be one of the most watched events in television history. The TV debates are perhaps the last chance for her to persuade the American people that this man is unqualified for, and unworthy of, the presidency and poses a genuine threat to the republic."
Lots of cancelled service as they try to play catch up with essential maintenance.
I thought SeanT was suggesting London's infrastructure was gleamingly good, not that it wasn't the worst in the world!
Still, the next time a train is unexpectedly terminated because the track is blocked by a broken-down train, and I have to take a lengthy walk instead, or the next time a signalling fault means the train doesn't turn up at all, and there's no hint of any information either, I'll console myself with the thought that things may be worse in Washington DC.
The NYC subway is seriously grimey compared to London.
Definitely worth a punt on Stella. But its a long shot as a member of Tory Scum brigade (aren't 90% of the PLP?). Although have the feeling she may just throw the towel in and do something else before the time is right. I saw Clive Lewis on TV on the other day - awful.
Deselections aside, how many previously ambitious and rated youngish Labour MPs are going to stand down now it is clear their party membership no longer willing stand for the politics (not just personnel or branding) of New Labour, and that the prospect of government is receding - possibly receding so far into the distance that, should the party membership decide to have a fresh, centrist restart, they'll be tired faces and yesterday's (wo)men anyway? Someone like Chuka could quit parliament at the next GE and head off into a life free from the inconveniences and intrusions of politics and become a very comfortable millionaire. Alternatively he can stick at the politics, but would waste the prime of his life on back benches or in opposition, and play the long game. only 37,Which is also a hard game. The temptation to pack it in must be huge.
Chuka is only 37, even if he did not become PM until 2030 he would still be younger than May is now, while it is probably too late for the likes of Burnham, Cooper and maybe Jarvis who are all in their forties it is not too late for him and Creasy, who is 39
Lots of cancelled service as they try to play catch up with essential maintenance.
I thought SeanT was suggesting London's infrastructure was gleamingly good, not that it wasn't the worst in the world!
Still, the next time a train is unexpectedly terminated because the track is blocked by a broken-down train, and I have to take a lengthy walk instead, or the next time a signalling fault means the train doesn't turn up at all, and there's no hint of any information either, I'll console myself with the thought that things may be worse in Washington DC.
The NYC subway is seriously grimey compared to London.
The Tube isn't perfect, but it's much better than it was 10 years ago, let alone 20, and it's also much better than most places have.
It may be we need a second defeat for independence in an #indyref before we can have another non Conservative government. We need the SNP to be detoxed in English eyes before they can act as a CSU to the rest of rUK's left.
I distinctly remember polling figures being posted on PB not so long ago about the gulf in opinions between Remain and Leave supporters. I've had a quick trawl and found them.
The SNP scored a net approval rating of +1 with the Remainers, but an extraordinary -63 (worse than either Trump or Putin) with Leavers. This would suggest overall that the SNP repels roughly twice as many electors as it attracts - and I would venture to guess that most of the people who had a positive view of the SNP are already safely in the Labour and Green camps. Otherwise, Scottish Nationalism is almost uniformly loathed. This suggests something rather more deep-seated than an image issue that can be overcome with a clever PR campaign.
One also has to question why this negative reception would change to any significant degree. The SNP exists for one over-arching reason, this being to dismantle the British state, and if it can't persuade the Scottish people to vote to leave then it will do its best to goad the English into telling the Scots to go away. Were it ever to find itself propping up a minority Government at Westminster, it would exploit its position both to empty the Treasury and to impose upon the rest of the UK unwanted laws and policies from which Scotland could be exempted under devolution. If possible, it would like deliberately to damage the economic competitiveness of England (e.g. with more taxes and regulation,) so as to tempt businesses operating across the UK to move as much capacity as possible into Scotland. The rest of us are not stupid, we understand this to be true. The SNP is regarded as a malign entity that is apathetic or even hostile to the best interests of most of the UK, because that is actually what it is. It also exudes a particular smug sense of Scots moral superiority (some of us have not forgotten Salmond's reaction to the 2011 riots, for example) which many voters South of the Tweed find offensive and repellent.
The only way to make SNP involvement in Government more palatable to the rest of us is outright federalism and an English Parliament. It wouldn't solve the fact that the SNP is opposed to the continuing existence of the UK, but at least any policies that they might support at the federal level would all apply to their voters as much as anybody else's. The big problem with that, of course, is a chicken and egg one: even if the entire Left were to embrace federalism as an objective, the English Left is hamstrung by the toxicity of Scottish Nationalism for so long as federalism is not implemented, but that toxicity threatens to continue absent federalism. And the Tories are not going to propose radical constitutional reform, are they?
As David Herdson keeps pointing out - it is a battle over the structures and the succession, for now.
Think of Corbyn as the John the Baptist figure for them. He has preached in the wilderness and ultimately prepared the ground. Then it is a matter of holding on to it long enough for the Messiah to come...
FWIW if there is one - some left-wing version of Tony Blair, a British and more socialist-leaning version of Trudeau Jr or one of the Kennedies - then it'd probably be next but one. Imagine whoever is anointed next, say Lisa Nandy, seems more likely in the gameplan to be a "steadying the ship" candidate until The One comes along.
The 'One' seems to be Clive Lewis, Lisa Nandy of course backed Owen Smith and so is really a Tory! A more likely 'steadying the ship' candidate is John McDonnell. However Trudeau Jr and the Kennedies, Obama and Blair were all reasonably centrist, not full on socialist like Corbyn and his acolytes. For Corbynism to win we would need something like the 25% unemployment rate Greece had when Syriza won in January 2015 rather than the 5% unemployment rate we have now
Not sure if Clive Lewis is The One, or even whether The One is in parliament yet.
And yes, I meant someone with persona and popularity like a leftier Blair or Trudeau or Kennedy - but not with the same politics. Against a split Tory party and with an inspirational and credible leader, I don't think it would take 20% unemployment and an economic collapse for someone with the politics of Foot or Benn or Corbyn to be competitive in a GE. It's the "only need to be lucky once" strategy, you have to give the stars a chance to align first. That's why control of structures and succession matter.
Not sure I'd write Nandy off - she's not a Corbynite but whoever follows Corbyn won't be be a mere continuation. She's of the Left, to the extent that without Corbyn and to some extent Ed M nailing down the coffin of New Labour, she wouldn't be seen as a viable future leader. She isn't a Corbyn fan, but she likes winning and likes competence which may be handy traits in a leader. Only if the Lab selectorate forgive her for her resignation though... Lewis might be more likely. McDonnell might be getting on a bit to be the replacement, but in terms of steady hands and political skills I imagine that some on Labour's parliamentary Left wish that Buggin's Turn to be "no-hope token left-wing candidate" in the 2015 contest had fallen the other way.
Stella.
What the shocked moderate Labourites are drinking in Liverpool tonight?
Definitely worth a punt on Stella. But its a long shot as a member of Tory Scum brigade (aren't 90% of the PLP?). Although have the feeling she may just throw the towel in and do something else before the time is right. I saw Clive Lewis on TV on the other day - awful.
Deselections aside, how many previously ambitious and rated youngish Labour MPs are going to stand down now it is clear their party membership no longer willing stand for the politics (not just personnel or branding) of New Labour, and that the prospect of government is receding - possibly receding so far into the distance that, should the party membership decide to have a fresh, centrist restart, they'll be tired faces and yesterday's (wo)men anyway? Someone like Chuka could quit parliament at the next GE and head off into a life free from the inconveniences and intrusions of politics and become a very comfortable millionaire. Alternatively he can stick at the politics, but would waste the prime of his life on back benches or in opposition, and play the long game. only 37,Which is also a hard game. The temptation to pack it in must be huge.
Chuka is only 37, even if he did not become PM until 2030 he would still be younger than May is now, while it is probably too late for the likes of Burnham, Cooper and maybe Jarvis who are all in their forties it is not too late for him and Creasy, who is 39
May is hardly a young PM by recent standards. "Younger than May" isn't saying much - and that's still a long game to play.
Perhaps he's up for it, but he often exudes the impression that he is in politics for himself. If he is then frankly in his position there are better uses for his time.
Chuka is only 37, even if he did not become PM until 2030 he would still be younger than May is now, while it is probably too late for the likes of Burnham, Cooper and maybe Jarvis who are all in their forties it is not too late for him and Creasy, who is 39
But even if figures like Umunna can successfully avoid deselection, will they want to spend their entire working lives as near-impotent Opposition backbenchers?
Not everybody is as single-mindedly devoted to politics for politics' sake as, say, Jeremy Corbyn was for decades. Being an MP and dealing with brickbats from the media and disgruntled members of the public, constituents' constant stream of complaints, and long, anti-social, family unfriendly hours in the House (not to mention spending much of your life away from home if your constituency isn't within a reasonable commute of Westminster) must take a lot of stamina and commitment, and feel like a right ball ache on occasions. For many Labour MPs adjusting to life as members of a party that may never return to power, if they no longer see any realistic prospect of winning again (and especially if they're also going to be made to pretend to support a leader and a policy platform with which they are deeply uncomfortable,) then why not just give up and go and do something more constructive?
Chuka is only 37, even if he did not become PM until 2030 he would still be younger than May is now, while it is probably too late for the likes of Burnham, Cooper and maybe Jarvis who are all in their forties it is not too late for him and Creasy, who is 39
But even if figures like Umunna can successfully avoid deselection, will they want to spend their entire working lives as near-impotent Opposition backbenchers?
Not everybody is as single-mindedly devoted to politics for politics' sake as, say, Jeremy Corbyn was for decades. Being an MP and dealing with brickbats from the media and disgruntled members of the public, constituents' constant stream of complaints, and long, anti-social, family unfriendly hours in the House (not to mention spending much of your life away from home if your constituency isn't within a reasonable commute of Westminster) must take a lot of stamina and commitment, and feel like a right ball ache on occasions. For many Labour MPs adjusting to life as members of a party that may never return to power, if they no longer see any realistic prospect of winning again (and especially if they're also going to be made to pretend to support a leader and a policy platform with which they are deeply uncomfortable,) then why not just give up and go and do something more constructive?
The ones that have come in through the SPAD/special advisor/pressure group route straight from student politics don't know anything else, and can't do anything else.
"I hate to be an alarmist, but Donald Trump could be on course to be elected president of the United States – and the decisive moment may well come on Monday night. That’s when he faces Hillary Clinton in what is expected to be one of the most watched events in television history. The TV debates are perhaps the last chance for her to persuade the American people that this man is unqualified for, and unworthy of, the presidency and poses a genuine threat to the republic."
This is all eerily reminiscent of the EU referendum debate. Left-liberals entreat the nation to vote for something that few are enthusiastic about and a lot hate, in order to derail what they consider to be a dangerous populist bandwagon.
That particular vote did not develop necessarily to their advantage. But as for the Presidential Election, who can say? One thing seems indisputable: the very fact that we are all talking about this being a close contest exposes just what a poor candidate the Democratic Party has lumbered itself with.
A colleague of mine at work summed up the entire Clinton campaign as "Because vagina." And he's right: a male candidate as divisive as Hillary and with as many skeletons in their closet would probably be on course for defeat.
Chuka is only 37, even if he did not become PM until 2030 he would still be younger than May is now, while it is probably too late for the likes of Burnham, Cooper and maybe Jarvis who are all in their forties it is not too late for him and Creasy, who is 39
But even if figures like Umunna can successfully avoid deselection, will they want to spend their entire working lives as near-impotent Opposition backbenchers?
Not everybody is as single-mindedly devoted to politics for politics' sake as, say, Jeremy Corbyn was for decades. Being an MP and dealing with brickbats from the media and disgruntled members of the public, constituents' constant stream of complaints, and long, anti-social, family unfriendly hours in the House (not to mention spending much of your life away from home if your constituency isn't within a reasonable commute of Westminster) must take a lot of stamina and commitment, and feel like a right ball ache on occasions. For many Labour MPs adjusting to life as members of a party that may never return to power, if they no longer see any realistic prospect of winning again (and especially if they're also going to be made to pretend to support a leader and a policy platform with which they are deeply uncomfortable,) then why not just give up and go and do something more constructive?
The ones that have come in through the SPAD/special advisor/pressure group route straight from student politics don't know anything else, and can't do anything else.
Not exactly true, plenty of ex spads slip into work in lobbying, PR and consultancy. Some go into the media.
Whether they'd travel on the A Ark or the B Ark in either their old or new career is an interesting question, but they won't starve.
Chuka is only 37, even if he did not become PM until 2030 he would still be younger than May is now, while it is probably too late for the likes of Burnham, Cooper and maybe Jarvis who are all in their forties it is not too late for him and Creasy, who is 39
But even if figures like Umunna can successfully avoid deselection, will they want to spend their entire working lives as near-impotent Opposition backbenchers?
Not everybody is as single-mindedly devoted to politics for politics' sake as, say, Jeremy Corbyn was for decades. Being an MP and dealing with brickbats from the media and disgruntled members of the public, constituents' constant stream of complaints, and long, anti-social, family unfriendly hours in the House (not to mention spending much of your life away from home if your constituency isn't within a reasonable commute of Westminster) must take a lot of stamina and commitment, and feel like a right ball ache on occasions. For many Labour MPs adjusting to life as members of a party that may never return to power, if they no longer see any realistic prospect of winning again (and especially if they're also going to be made to pretend to support a leader and a policy platform with which they are deeply uncomfortable,) then why not just give up and go and do something more constructive?
The ones that have come in through the SPAD/special advisor/pressure group route straight from student politics don't know anything else, and can't do anything else.
Definitely worth a punt on Stella. But its a long shot as a member of Tory Scum brigade (aren't 90% of the PLP?). Although have the feeling she may just throw the towel in and do something else before the time is right. I saw Clive Lewis on TV on the other day - awful.
Deselections aside, how many previously ambitious and rated youngish Labour MPs are going to stand down now it is clear their party membership no longer willing stand for the politics (not just personnel or branding) of New Labour, and that the prospect of government is receding - possibly receding so far into the distance that, should the party membership decide to have a fresh, centrist restart, they'll be tired faces and yesterday's (wo)men anyway? Someone like Chuka could quit parliament at the next GE and head off into a life free from the inconveniences and intrusions of politics and become a very comfortable millionaire. Alternatively he can stick at the politics, but would waste the prime of his life on back benches or in opposition, and play the long game. only 37,Which is also a hard game. The temptation to pack it in must be huge.
Chuka is only 37, even if he did not become PM until 2030 he would still be younger than May is now, while it is probably too late for the likes of Burnham, Cooper and maybe Jarvis who are all in their forties it is not too late for him and Creasy, who is 39
May is hardly a young PM by recent standards. "Younger than May" isn't saying much - and that's still a long game to play.
Perhaps he's up for it, but he often exudes the impression that he is in politics for himself. If he is then frankly in his position there are better uses for his time.
If Chuka became PM In 2025 for instance he would be 45, only 1 year older than Cameron and 2 years older than Blair when they became PM. If he became PM he would not only be an automatic A List celeb for life but earn millions more after leaving office than he ever would outside politics, so that is not necessarily an argument to stop him
Chuka is only 37, even if he did not become PM until 2030 he would still be younger than May is now, while it is probably too late for the likes of Burnham, Cooper and maybe Jarvis who are all in their forties it is not too late for him and Creasy, who is 39
But even if figures like Umunna can successfully avoid deselection, will they want to spend their entire working lives as near-impotent Opposition backbenchers?
Not everybody is as single-mindedly devoted to politics for politics' sake as, say, Jeremy Corbyn was for decades. Being an MP and dealing with brickbats from the media and disgruntled members of the public, constituents' constant stream of complaints, and long, anti-social, family unfriendly hours in the House (not to mention spending much of your life away from home if your constituency isn't within a reasonable commute of Westminster) must take a lot of stamina and commitment, and feel like a right ball ache on occasions. For many Labour MPs adjusting to life as members of a party that may never return to power, if they no longer see any realistic prospect of winning again (and especially if they're also going to be made to pretend to support a leader and a policy platform with which they are deeply uncomfortable,) then why not just give up and go and do something more constructive?
Certainly some of the more middle-ranking Labour MPs may well be looking at making a move to the charitable or private sector or the media, especially the more careerist of them
From the Observer one of a selection of views under the heading "After Jeremy Corbyn’s victory, what should Labour do now?":
Sue and Jennie: we’re feeling despondent – and politically homeless
Between us we have 100 years on the electoral register, voting Labour every time. We’ve had long careers in inner city schools, and are firm believers in social justice. We’ve seen Labour go through tough times, but have never felt so despondent. The role of a leader in any sphere is to inspire confidence and bring people together, yet we have never seen the party more divided. We feel that the leadership is focused on communicating with the new membership but that as traditional Labour voters – who no longer attend rallies and are not on social media – we are not informed, our views are not valued and those who democratically represent our beliefs are not listened to.
Jeremy Corbyn says he does not condone abuse, yet the fear of harassment appears rife in the party. On the issue of Brexit, when he could have made a significant impact early in his leadership, he seemed invisible. In the end, leadership is judged by its impact and, after a year in post, the state of the party is a woeful indictment. This leaves us politically homeless. The party that has been our natural home and should be the strongest opposition to rightwing policy is no more. We look to someone out there to fill the void.
*****
These women may be waiting a very long time for a better offer. If enough Sues and Jennies desert Labour for small parties, or simply give up in despair and stay at home, then the Conservatives' electoral prospects will only improve even further.
Chuka is only 37, even if he did not become PM until 2030 he would still be younger than May is now, while it is probably too late for the likes of Burnham, Cooper and maybe Jarvis who are all in their forties it is not too late for him and Creasy, who is 39
But even if figures like Umunna can successfully avoid deselection, will they want to spend their entire working lives as near-impotent Opposition backbenchers?
Not everybody is as single-mindedly devoted to politics for politics' sake as, say, Jeremy Corbyn was for decades. Being an MP and dealing with brickbats from the media and disgruntled members of the public, constituents' constant stream of complaints, and long, anti-social, family unfriendly hours in the House (not to mention spending much of your life away from home if your constituency isn't within a reasonable commute of Westminster) must take a lot of stamina and commitment, and feel like a right ball ache on occasions. For many Labour MPs adjusting to life as members of a party that may never return to power, if they no longer see any realistic prospect of winning again (and especially if they're also going to be made to pretend to support a leader and a policy platform with which they are deeply uncomfortable,) then why not just give up and go and do something more constructive?
The ones that have come in through the SPAD/special advisor/pressure group route straight from student politics don't know anything else, and can't do anything else.
@Black_Rook I appreciate that the post #Indyref strategy of the SNP was to get the English to leave the union first. To that that extent Brexit has offered up Sturgeon's long game. It's too early to tell to what extent Brexit was an attempt by some English to break up the union. However Salmond's " Full English Brexit " Beng bad for Scotland's health suggests the game has become short again.
@Black_Rook I appreciate that the post #Indyref strategy of the SNP was to get the English to leave the union first. To that that extent Brexit has offered up Sturgeon's long game. It's too early to tell to what extent Brexit was an attempt by some English to break up the union. However Salmond's " Full English Brexit " Beng bad for Scotland's health suggests the game has become short again.
There is no real love in Scotland for the single market, Ashcroft's polling showed even SNP voters put control over immigration ahead of single market access
The sooner TSE is replaced at the head of the PB fantasy footie league.the healthier we shall all be... or are he and Liverpool the new Leicester?? With 3 pool midfielders he's tied to their fate.
Big Scottish sub sample of 330 in YouGov in The Times today showing SNP at 52 per cent for Westminster elections with Labour at 17!
Only a sub sample of course but I know how much PB posters love to hear about SNP electoral strength. Also it tallies with last full Scottish poll which also showed the SNP at over 50.
Two thoughts. In 2012 when Salmond fired the starting gun on the last referendum the SNP were at 30 for Westminster (and Labour at 42 per cent) with independence at 28 per cent.
Now the SNP are somewhere above 50 per cent and independence at 48 per cent on an average of the last nine polls.
Why under these circumstances would Sturgeon not move to game on?
@Black_Rook I appreciate that the post #Indyref strategy of the SNP was to get the English to leave the union first. To that that extent Brexit has offered up Sturgeon's long game. It's too early to tell to what extent Brexit was an attempt by some English to break up the union. However Salmond's " Full English Brexit " Beng bad for Scotland's health suggests the game has become short again.
Although I stand to be corrected, I very much doubt that any significant number of people voted to leave the EU just to provoke Scotland into leaving the UK. The SNP and the Barnett Formula may both be woefully unpopular in England, but I don't think this translates into a mass resentment of Scotland itself.
There is probably a sizeable constituency in England that, if faced prior to the EU vote with a forced choice between keeping both the EU and the Union with Scotland, or losing both, would choose to sacrifice the British Union in order to get England out of the European one, but that wasn't what was on offer in the EU referendum. Although one of the tactics deployed by Cameron was to talk up the threat of the UK collapsing post-Brexit, I believe most voters would've considered this not to be a serious prospect and to have dismissed it, as opposed to having voted Leave to make it come to pass.
As far as indyref2 is concerned, there's no evidence so far to suggest that the "being dragged out of the EU against our will" line is winning Yes Scotland any converts - or, perhaps more accurately, it is both winning converts (distraught, formerly pro-UK Europhiles) and losing existing supporters (swing voters who fear a hard border with England, and Eurosceptics who prefer living in a Britain outside the EU to a Scotland inside it) in roughly equal numbers. If Sturgeon decides to attempt another plebiscite this side of 2021, then it may be called on the pretext of Brexit, but the real reason will be that the SNP high command is under pressure from the party membership to have one whilst it has the chance: the SNP will have been in Government for 14 years by the time of the next Holyrood vote and their failings may finally begin to catch up with them. Even assuming that they continue as a minority administration, if the separatist (SNP + Green) majority in Parliament is lost then who knows how long it will be before it reappears?
Whatever, they'll presumably be keeping their fingers crossed for Brexit to go as wrong as possible, so that the UK can be portrayed as unsafe and incompetently led. Otherwise the SNP's problems are legion, whether indyref2 is held before or after Brexit. Amongst other things, the issues of what currency to use; what to do about the huge budget deficit; and what kind of restrictions Scotland might suffer in terms of travel and market access to the rest of the UK, in the unlikely event that it were to successfully apply to re-join the EU, all remain to be resolved.
Big Scottish sub sample of 330 in YouGov in The Times today showing SNP at 52 per cent for Westminster elections with Labour at 17!
Only a sub sample of course but I know how much PB posters love to hear about SNP electoral strength. Also it tallies with last full Scottish poll which also showed the SNP at over 50.
Two thoughts. In 2012 when Salmond fired the starting gun on the last referendum the SNP were at 30 for Westminster (and Labour at 42 per cent) with independence at 28 per cent.
Now the SNP are somewhere above 50 per cent and independence at 48 per cent on an average of the last nine polls.
Why under these circumstances would Sturgeon not move to game on?
Because they would lose the referendum again, probably by about the same margin as they did before, even if a little tighter (final indyref polls were similar to those now). A second indyref referendum defeat would kill off talk of independence for decades which is why Sturgeon will huff and puff a little but not do it, as she has made clear until polling shows a consistent majority of Scots back independence for at least a year she will not call a referendum and on that she is entirely sound. In any case Scots have made clear they certainly do not want to even consider a referendum until after Brexit and the Brexit process will be the main topic of conversation and last for most of the next 3 years, independence has gone right to the back of the queue. Not to mention nationalists are now divided between the third who voted to Leave the EU and those who want Scotland to leave the UK and rejoin the EU, Unionists are united on staying in the UK regardless of how Brexit pans out. Goodnight
Deplorable Elizabeth Fox News Pundit: Why would Trump invite Gennifer Flowers to the debate? I don't even know who that is. I had to Google her. Oh.... https://t.co/A21EgKkfdV
Big Scottish sub sample of 330 in YouGov in The Times today showing SNP at 52 per cent for Westminster elections with Labour at 17!
Only a sub sample of course but I know how much PB posters love to hear about SNP electoral strength. Also it tallies with last full Scottish poll which also showed the SNP at over 50.
Two thoughts. In 2012 when Salmond fired the starting gun on the last referendum the SNP were at 30 for Westminster (and Labour at 42 per cent) with independence at 28 per cent.
Now the SNP are somewhere above 50 per cent and independence at 48 per cent on an average of the last nine polls.
Why under these circumstances would Sturgeon not move to game on?
Because they would lose the referendum again, probably by about the same margin as they did before, even if a little tighter (final indyref polls were similar to those now). A second indyref referendum defeat would kill off talk of independence for decades which is why Sturgeon will huff and puff a little but not do it, as she has made clear until polling shows a consistent majority of Scots back independence for at least a year she will not call a referendum and on that she is entirely sound. In any case Scots have made clear they certainly do not want to even consider a referendum until after Brexit and the Brexit process will be the main topic of conversation and last for most of the next 3 years, independence has gone right to the back of the queue. Not to mention nationalists are now divided between the third who voted to Leave the EU and those who want Scotland to leave the UK and rejoin the EU, Unionists are united on staying in the UK regardless of how Brexit pans out. Goodnight
Plus the threat to push the button on a ref is the only leverage they have over May and the nature of the U.K. Exit deal. Once triggered their leverage is gone.
Big Scottish sub sample of 330 in YouGov in The Times today showing SNP at 52 per cent for Westminster elections with Labour at 17!
Only a sub sample of course but I know how much PB posters love to hear about SNP electoral strength. Also it tallies with last full Scottish poll which also showed the SNP at over 50.
Two thoughts. In 2012 when Salmond fired the starting gun on the last referendum the SNP were at 30 for Westminster (and Labour at 42 per cent) with independence at 28 per cent.
Now the SNP are somewhere above 50 per cent and independence at 48 per cent on an average of the last nine polls.
Why under these circumstances would Sturgeon not move to game on?
I've just replied to another poster about this subject, and basically said that the main argument in favour of pushing for a quick re-run is that the Scottish Government cannot continue to defy political gravity forever. The opportunity for this to happen will increase markedly once substantial tax devolution to Holyrood has been completed, because the First Minister will then be responsible for a large chunk of taxation as well as spending policy, and her ability to blame Westminster for her problems because it controls the purse strings will be commensurately reduced. The SNP also has to consider the pressure from its activist base to do all it can to sunder the Union as quickly as possible.
Set against that, the SNP knows that so long as there isn't a decisive and sustained movement in public opinion in favour of independence, there is a very real chance of it losing a second referendum - and in that case the obvious risk is that, as in Quebec, there won't be a third. So it is an enormous gamble for a party whose primary policy goal is independence; if, following a second defeat, there is no prospect of independence in anything other than the long-term, then the big risk for the SNP is that the whole independence issue drops right down the list of priorities for the electorate as a whole, and that staunchly pro-independence activists and voters may desert the party and either stay at home or join the Greens or the fringe Left.
SNP support levels for Westminster elections may not respond, over time, in the same way as Holyrood elections. It is quite possible that voters may continue to pick the SNP as the best party to fight Scotland's corner in London, even after having deserted it in Holyrood elections where most of Scotland's domestic agenda is now at stake.
Basically, the polling figures on the independence issue are what they are, but I'd be wary of using the even more healthy numbers for the SNP's Westminster VI as corroborating evidence in the case for a second referendum. Support for the latter proposition simply doesn't translate directly into support for former.
The Tube isn't perfect, but it's much better than it was 10 years ago, let alone 20, and it's also much better than most places have.
As I'm a South Londoner, I was really talking about the train more than the Tube (only a couple of tendrils of which penetrate down here).
Even setting aside the woes of "Southern", it's often pretty dire. And while they may not be able to do much about mechanical failure or crew shortages when they happen, the sheer lack of communication is something else. One recent example - a last-minute platform alteration at Clapham Junction. Passengers dutifully troop across to the new platform as soon as it's announced - only to see the train already pulling away. That kind of thing just shouldn't happen.
Reading the mail bit either Oliver isn't telling the truth or remain didn't model.thijgs very well, at 3am they thought that remain had won (just). On pb, by 3am it was fairly clear.leave were going to win.
Reading the mail bit either Oliver isn't telling the truth or remain didn't model.thijgs very well, at 3am they thought that remain had won (just). On pb, by 3am it was fairly clear.leave were going to win.
Why are you surprised, lets be honest, Theresa May was the submarine during the EU Referendum? Theresa May disappeared during the EU Referendum Campaign, but now she and her advisers are trying to dismantle every successful aspect of the Cameron/Osborne years in Office. Last party to do that were the Libdems, and look where that got them? Sorry, but I am angry that this petty power struggle is even going on when the Labour party and Corbyn have left such an Open Goal as an Opposition.
Theresa May and her advisor's have made a whole group of new enemies on their own backbenches which were totally unnecessary, and despite not even having been involved in a bruising Leadership contest! Over the last couple weeks, its not the stories of her team slapping down the Ministers she appointed to do a job that is making the news. But it is the various talented Cameron appointed Ministers she sacked who are making the news on various political shows, proving their worth as well as her pettiness in sacking them. Two weeks into BBC Question Time, and its telling that there has yet to be an appearance, let alone a strong performance from one of her Ministers. When Justine Greening pulls out of Question Time, alarm bells should have been ringing.
For me personally, I haven't felt this concerned about a Tory Leader and the direction their going in since Michael Howard and that awful 2005 General Campaign. Alarm bells should be ringing rather than slagging off Cameron who did manage to win a Coalition then a majority just a year ago.
Reading the mail bit either Oliver isn't telling the truth or remain didn't model.thijgs very well, at 3am they thought that remain had won (just). On pb, by 3am it was fairly clear.leave were going to win.
Coetzee(?) thought the final result would be a 32000 lead for remain.
@Black_Rook Welcome Black Rook, a superb analysis of the current problems facing the SNP Government at Holyrood, as well as the risks posed by a 2nd Indy Referendum. I called it back in September last year, the SNP juggernaut has been slowly grinding to a halt since then. They failed to retain their majority, and now more importantly, Nicola Sturgeon's personal rating are dropping like stone. The economic figures for Independence simple didn't stack up for the SNP, and that has been been never been more true than now with the Oil&Gas Industry falling off a cliff with upwards of 65K+ job losses and the subsequent fall out to the local economy in the North East.
Scotslass is a not very subtle SNP spin robot who pops on here from time to time to spread the usual propaganda. Its ironic, but the SNP will finally see their dream of Independence falter because they became so obsessed with constitutional matters. And to the detriment of the bread and butter issues like the NHS, Education and Policing which are all now facing huge challenges as a result of SNP mismanagement. Put aside the financial loss of the Union or the issue of the currency. If you cannot even prove yourself fit enough to run the most vital public services, who would trust you to run an Independent Scotland with all the other problems that creates for the us? Many local SNP associations are now in turmoil after recent Yes converts have taken over and pushed out long time SNP members and activists who did so much of the on ground work in local areas.
Yvette Cooper reveals Twitter user threatened to behead her as she demands Corbyn takes stronger action against abuse
Well done to Yvette Cooper for standing up and calling for Corbyn to take stronger action against this abuse faced by his own MPs!! Its so far been one of the biggest indicators of his appalling lack of Leadership skills, he should be ashamed that he has not done more to protect his own MPs. And he then wonders about their lack of confidence in him as a Leader, you don't gain respect by winning, you have to earn it as a Leader!! And Corbyn is proving yet again why he failed to gain the confidence of the PLP in spades.
Reading the mail bit either Oliver isn't telling the truth or remain didn't model.thijgs very well, at 3am they thought that remain had won (just). On pb, by 3am it was fairly clear.leave were going to win.
Coetzee(?) thought the final result would be a 32000 lead for remain.
That front page article just goes to show what a crap negotiator Cameron was. He didn't even ask for what he wanted (an immigration brake) because he had already concluded that Merkel would not agree. WTF? And his camp call May lily-livered? Who, precisely was PM at that time?
For me personally, I haven't felt this concerned about a Tory Leader and the direction their going in since Michael Howard and that awful 2005 General Campaign. Alarm bells should be ringing rather than slagging off Cameron who did manage to win a Coalition then a majority just a year ago.
There we differ. I haven't felt this relaxed about a Tory leader since mid-Thatcher (before "we are a grandmother"). I think May is in general heading in the right direction and has articulated the big unspoken truth "globalization isn't working for everyone" - which everybody knows but are afraid to articulate as they don't know the answer. While Cameron was a good PM before 2016 he never touched this...
Comments
Carry on Corbyn.
Carry on Corbyn was going to be a gag in my morning piece.
I had a Carry on up the Khyber gag in there too.
Paul Mason wrote something in NS this week along the lines of young people have no idea what it is like to lose even though you know you are right and your side is virtuous. Spanish Civil war was mentioned. Not sure he was trying to make the same point about the shock of bad result, being as he believes that it is possible given work on the 'movement' that Corbyn will be swept to power by crowds laying flowers at his feet as he enters the gates of No 10, or something along those lines.
Actually, Corbynator 2: Judgment Day probably works better
Early returns show 56.5% Democrat : 32.6% Republican
OK that is out of 46 votes.
https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats
"I hate to be an alarmist, but Donald Trump could be on course to be elected president of the United States – and the decisive moment may well come on Monday night. That’s when he faces Hillary Clinton in what is expected to be one of the most watched events in television history. The TV debates are perhaps the last chance for her to persuade the American people that this man is unqualified for, and unworthy of, the presidency and poses a genuine threat to the republic."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/sep/23/president-trump-only-one-way-stop-it-happening-hillary-clinton
29th September:
Blackpool, Tyldseley
6th October:
Bolton, Rumworth
Caerphilly, Gilfach
Caerphilly, Risca East
Glasgow, Garscadden & Scotstounhill
Haringey, St Ann's
Hartlepool, Headland & Harbour
Highland, Cullodon & Ardersier
13th October:
Lancaster, Westgate
Lewisham, Brockley
Lewisham, Evelyn
20th October:
Conwy, Abergele Pensrn
Kettering, Rothwell
Middlesbrough, Central
Neath Port Talbot, Blaengwrach
27th October:
Denbighshire, Rhyl West
http://vote-2012.proboards.com/post/415625/thread
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-37463929
The SNP scored a net approval rating of +1 with the Remainers, but an extraordinary -63 (worse than either Trump or Putin) with Leavers. This would suggest overall that the SNP repels roughly twice as many electors as it attracts - and I would venture to guess that most of the people who had a positive view of the SNP are already safely in the Labour and Green camps. Otherwise, Scottish Nationalism is almost uniformly loathed. This suggests something rather more deep-seated than an image issue that can be overcome with a clever PR campaign.
One also has to question why this negative reception would change to any significant degree. The SNP exists for one over-arching reason, this being to dismantle the British state, and if it can't persuade the Scottish people to vote to leave then it will do its best to goad the English into telling the Scots to go away. Were it ever to find itself propping up a minority Government at Westminster, it would exploit its position both to empty the Treasury and to impose upon the rest of the UK unwanted laws and policies from which Scotland could be exempted under devolution. If possible, it would like deliberately to damage the economic competitiveness of England (e.g. with more taxes and regulation,) so as to tempt businesses operating across the UK to move as much capacity as possible into Scotland. The rest of us are not stupid, we understand this to be true. The SNP is regarded as a malign entity that is apathetic or even hostile to the best interests of most of the UK, because that is actually what it is. It also exudes a particular smug sense of Scots moral superiority (some of us have not forgotten Salmond's reaction to the 2011 riots, for example) which many voters South of the Tweed find offensive and repellent.
The only way to make SNP involvement in Government more palatable to the rest of us is outright federalism and an English Parliament. It wouldn't solve the fact that the SNP is opposed to the continuing existence of the UK, but at least any policies that they might support at the federal level would all apply to their voters as much as anybody else's. The big problem with that, of course, is a chicken and egg one: even if the entire Left were to embrace federalism as an objective, the English Left is hamstrung by the toxicity of Scottish Nationalism for so long as federalism is not implemented, but that toxicity threatens to continue absent federalism. And the Tories are not going to propose radical constitutional reform, are they?
Perhaps he's up for it, but he often exudes the impression that he is in politics for himself. If he is then frankly in his position there are better uses for his time.
Not everybody is as single-mindedly devoted to politics for politics' sake as, say, Jeremy Corbyn was for decades. Being an MP and dealing with brickbats from the media and disgruntled members of the public, constituents' constant stream of complaints, and long, anti-social, family unfriendly hours in the House (not to mention spending much of your life away from home if your constituency isn't within a reasonable commute of Westminster) must take a lot of stamina and commitment, and feel like a right ball ache on occasions. For many Labour MPs adjusting to life as members of a party that may never return to power, if they no longer see any realistic prospect of winning again (and especially if they're also going to be made to pretend to support a leader and a policy platform with which they are deeply uncomfortable,) then why not just give up and go and do something more constructive?
That particular vote did not develop necessarily to their advantage. But as for the Presidential Election, who can say? One thing seems indisputable: the very fact that we are all talking about this being a close contest exposes just what a poor candidate the Democratic Party has lumbered itself with.
A colleague of mine at work summed up the entire Clinton campaign as "Because vagina." And he's right: a male candidate as divisive as Hillary and with as many skeletons in their closet would probably be on course for defeat.
Whether they'd travel on the A Ark or the B Ark in either their old or new career is an interesting question, but they won't starve.
Sue and Jennie: we’re feeling despondent – and politically homeless
Between us we have 100 years on the electoral register, voting Labour every time. We’ve had long careers in inner city schools, and are firm believers in social justice. We’ve seen Labour go through tough times, but have never felt so despondent. The role of a leader in any sphere is to inspire confidence and bring people together, yet we have never seen the party more divided. We feel that the leadership is focused on communicating with the new membership but that as traditional Labour voters – who no longer attend rallies and are not on social media – we are not informed, our views are not valued and those who democratically represent our beliefs are not listened to.
Jeremy Corbyn says he does not condone abuse, yet the fear of harassment appears rife in the party. On the issue of Brexit, when he could have made a significant impact early in his leadership, he seemed invisible. In the end, leadership is judged by its impact and, after a year in post, the state of the party is a woeful indictment. This leaves us politically homeless. The party that has been our natural home and should be the strongest opposition to rightwing policy is no more. We look to someone out there to fill the void.
*****
These women may be waiting a very long time for a better offer. If enough Sues and Jennies desert Labour for small parties, or simply give up in despair and stay at home, then the Conservatives' electoral prospects will only improve even further.
Good night all.
CNN is now having to explain who she is. Hillary really didn't think it through when she tried trolling him with Mark Cuban.
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/22/politics/mark-cuban-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/
Only a sub sample of course but I know how much PB posters love to hear about SNP electoral strength. Also it tallies with last full Scottish poll which also showed the SNP at over 50.
Two thoughts. In 2012 when Salmond fired the starting gun on the last referendum the SNP were at 30 for Westminster (and Labour at 42 per cent) with independence at 28 per cent.
Now the SNP are somewhere above 50 per cent and independence at 48 per cent on an average of the last nine polls.
Why under these circumstances would Sturgeon not move to game on?
There is probably a sizeable constituency in England that, if faced prior to the EU vote with a forced choice between keeping both the EU and the Union with Scotland, or losing both, would choose to sacrifice the British Union in order to get England out of the European one, but that wasn't what was on offer in the EU referendum. Although one of the tactics deployed by Cameron was to talk up the threat of the UK collapsing post-Brexit, I believe most voters would've considered this not to be a serious prospect and to have dismissed it, as opposed to having voted Leave to make it come to pass.
As far as indyref2 is concerned, there's no evidence so far to suggest that the "being dragged out of the EU against our will" line is winning Yes Scotland any converts - or, perhaps more accurately, it is both winning converts (distraught, formerly pro-UK Europhiles) and losing existing supporters (swing voters who fear a hard border with England, and Eurosceptics who prefer living in a Britain outside the EU to a Scotland inside it) in roughly equal numbers. If Sturgeon decides to attempt another plebiscite this side of 2021, then it may be called on the pretext of Brexit, but the real reason will be that the SNP high command is under pressure from the party membership to have one whilst it has the chance: the SNP will have been in Government for 14 years by the time of the next Holyrood vote and their failings may finally begin to catch up with them. Even assuming that they continue as a minority administration, if the separatist (SNP + Green) majority in Parliament is lost then who knows how long it will be before it reappears?
Whatever, they'll presumably be keeping their fingers crossed for Brexit to go as wrong as possible, so that the UK can be portrayed as unsafe and incompetently led. Otherwise the SNP's problems are legion, whether indyref2 is held before or after Brexit. Amongst other things, the issues of what currency to use; what to do about the huge budget deficit; and what kind of restrictions Scotland might suffer in terms of travel and market access to the rest of the UK, in the unlikely event that it were to successfully apply to re-join the EU, all remain to be resolved.
Fox News Pundit: Why would Trump invite Gennifer Flowers to the debate? I don't even know who that is. I had to Google her. Oh.... https://t.co/A21EgKkfdV
Set against that, the SNP knows that so long as there isn't a decisive and sustained movement in public opinion in favour of independence, there is a very real chance of it losing a second referendum - and in that case the obvious risk is that, as in Quebec, there won't be a third. So it is an enormous gamble for a party whose primary policy goal is independence; if, following a second defeat, there is no prospect of independence in anything other than the long-term, then the big risk for the SNP is that the whole independence issue drops right down the list of priorities for the electorate as a whole, and that staunchly pro-independence activists and voters may desert the party and either stay at home or join the Greens or the fringe Left.
SNP support levels for Westminster elections may not respond, over time, in the same way as Holyrood elections. It is quite possible that voters may continue to pick the SNP as the best party to fight Scotland's corner in London, even after having deserted it in Holyrood elections where most of Scotland's domestic agenda is now at stake.
Basically, the polling figures on the independence issue are what they are, but I'd be wary of using the even more healthy numbers for the SNP's Westminster VI as corroborating evidence in the case for a second referendum. Support for the latter proposition simply doesn't translate directly into support for former.
Even setting aside the woes of "Southern", it's often pretty dire. And while they may not be able to do much about mechanical failure or crew shortages when they happen, the sheer lack of communication is something else. One recent example - a last-minute platform alteration at Clapham Junction. Passengers dutifully troop across to the new platform as soon as it's announced - only to see the train already pulling away. That kind of thing just shouldn't happen.
#Georgia Landmark/@Wsbtv Poll:
Trump 47% (+4)
Clinton 43%
Johnson 6%
https://t.co/FNyyrgn9C1
#Georgia JMC Analytics Poll:
Trump 44% (+6)
Clinton 38%
Johnson 5%
A 13 point shift toward Trump in 6 weeks
https://t.co/yhv4taRzNF
Pennsylvania @mcall / MuhlenbergCollege Poll:
Clinton 40 (+2)
Trump 38
Johnson 8
Stein 3
H2H
Clinton 44 +3
Trump 41
https://t.co/9DgV0CBw9H https://t.co/2cNecw87Ce
A 6 point shift toward Trump in a week https://t.co/U18IA4DzBd
http://suttonnick.tumblr.com/image/150878190241
Theresa May and her advisor's have made a whole group of new enemies on their own backbenches which were totally unnecessary, and despite not even having been involved in a bruising Leadership contest! Over the last couple weeks, its not the stories of her team slapping down the Ministers she appointed to do a job that is making the news. But it is the various talented Cameron appointed Ministers she sacked who are making the news on various political shows, proving their worth as well as her pettiness in sacking them. Two weeks into BBC Question Time, and its telling that there has yet to be an appearance, let alone a strong performance from one of her Ministers. When Justine Greening pulls out of Question Time, alarm bells should have been ringing.
For me personally, I haven't felt this concerned about a Tory Leader and the direction their going in since Michael Howard and that awful 2005 General Campaign. Alarm bells should be ringing rather than slagging off Cameron who did manage to win a Coalition then a majority just a year ago.
Scotslass is a not very subtle SNP spin robot who pops on here from time to time to spread the usual propaganda. Its ironic, but the SNP will finally see their dream of Independence falter because they became so obsessed with constitutional matters. And to the detriment of the bread and butter issues like the NHS, Education and Policing which are all now facing huge challenges as a result of SNP mismanagement. Put aside the financial loss of the Union or the issue of the currency. If you cannot even prove yourself fit enough to run the most vital public services, who would trust you to run an Independent Scotland with all the other problems that creates for the us? Many local SNP associations are now in turmoil after recent Yes converts have taken over and pushed out long time SNP members and activists who did so much of the on ground work in local areas.
Yvette Cooper reveals Twitter user threatened to behead her as she demands Corbyn takes stronger action against abuse
He's got a MySpace page - I'd no idea that was still a thing
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/09/update-cascade-mall-shooter-captured-suspect-turkish-muslim-arcan-cetin/#st_refDomain=&st_refQuery=
Now a new generation of young Americans are being introduced to Gennifer Flowers.