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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just 16% tell ComRes that LAB-led JC likely to win GE compared with 65% saying TMay-led CON will
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Switch it over to BBC1 this instance
As popular as the show is, I'm surprised the MPs weren't paying attention to one of Cersei's maxims from Game of Thrones, namely that when playing such games you win or die, there is no middle ground.
Stupid sods. Nowhere in the rule book does it say that the Leader has to resign. The Left does one thing always better than the Right. They know the Rules.
Just 32% for the LibDems.
Next GE:
Con most seats 1.26, Lab most seats 5.7
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/27456523/market?marketId=1.119040697
If Britain is open for business then we need more runways. JFDI.
Corbyn is close to having signed up as Labour members the totality of people who will vote for him as PM.
http://www.heathrowappg.com/heathrow-expansion-a-risk-assessment-2/
It is damning.
Here I'm quoting Zac Goldsmith:
"For years, senior staff from Heathrow have taken up senior roles in Government, and vice versa. For example last year our Infrastructure Minister switched over to become the Chairman of Heathrow. The Head of Communications at the Department for Transport went over to become the Head of Communications at Heathrow, and the Head of Communications at Heathrow has become the Head of Communications at the Department for Transport!
As a result Heathrow expansion has undoubtedly been the default position of Government officials for many years.
Institutional bias is a major problem for us. But there is a silver lining, and that is our new Prime Minister. Theresa May once described herself as a 'bloody difficult woman'. And I am confident that she won't simply be spoon-fed a line by entrenched officials. She starts from a position of scepticism about Heathrow expansion, and will look at the evidence before taking a view. If she really does, then it is hard to imagine her backing Heathrow."
http://www.prweek.com/article/1332084/department-transport-hires-heathrow-pr-director-simon-baugh
Foreign owned Heathrow owns the Department of Transport. If this happened in Zimbabwe we would shrug our shoulders. But this is the UK. This swopping of top jobs between the Civil Service and major companies is a disgrace.
According to an account of the meeting obtained by The Telegraph, Mrs May declined to provide information about how the British government would approach the Brexit negotiations, other than pursuing a deal that was “in the national interest”.
There followed “frank exchanges” in which bosses warned they could not wait to discover the final outcome of the two-year Article 50 negotiations before making major investment decisions that could see thousands of UK jobs shift to Europe....
Downing Street’s uncompromising line on curbing EU migration has caused friction between Mr Hammond and Mrs May’s political team which is dominated by former Home Office officials who “understand the politics of migration rather better than the economy”, the source said....
Financial services generate more than £60bn pounds a year in tax, a quarter of which comes from foreign-owned banks, revenues that the Treasury fears will now be put in jeopardy."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/24/brexit-warning-us-bank-bosses-from-goldman-sachs-morgan-stanley/
It is easy to say "Build it". It is much more difficult to actually build LHR3 without going bust, staying within the law, keeping passengers with the highest airport charges in the world etc. The risk falls on the Government (i.e. the taxpayer) and it is massive.
If we need to build another London airport quickly (and we do) Gatwick is the only option.
I think some of the passion for Heathrow is driven by "sod the complaining locals". Facile.
After that any buyer knew exactly where Heathrow was situated and planes were much noisier than now.
That is 33% of 52% i,e about 17% said the main reason was immigration.
http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2016-06-30/poll-shows-brexit-vote-was-about-british-sovereignty-not-anti-immigration
Ref Lascaux and cave paintings, I got the spelling wrong on the cave where you can see the originals - Fond de Gaumme:
http://www.sites-les-eyzies.fr/en/
Les Eyzies de Tayac is not a bad little town either to base yourself in for a few days. We did a day trip from there to see Simon de Montfort's castle (the one who persecuted the Cathars, not the Magna Carta one). IIRC, Mr Morris Dancer would love it - a stonking big trebuchet is set up in the grounds.
"The Airports Commission preference for Heathrow expansion over alternatives rests heavily on claims of substantially higher economic benefits at Heathrow. This differential rests on a report produced by PwC, as equivalent numbers produced under the normally accepted government methodology (WebTAG) show minimal variance between the Heathrow and Gatwick schemes. The use of numbers generated by the PwC report has been criticised by the Airports Commission’s own economic advisers, Professor Peter Mackie and Brian Pearce. "
http://www.heathrowappg.com/heathrow-expansion-a-risk-assessment-2/
It is very easy to sit at your keyboard on a Saturday night with a glass of wine and and bang the table and say "damn it - just build it".
I went to Belfast two weeks ago. Not only is there a City Airport, there is also an "International" airport. Excuse me, how many people actually live here !
And, I thought Dublin had become the Irish hub.
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/772705722073280512
Of course May cannot tell them at this point whether they'll have to. Even is she was prepared to bend over backwards to protect passporting, it is not within her power to guarantee it. If I were on the executive team of one of those banks, I wouldn't be waiting for May to tell me what the negotiating position would be. I'd just open an office in the EU, but hold off on incurring larger costs of a move of certain operations until the situation clarified. Not sure what the problem is with that.
Unless getting information was never the banks' real reason for the meeting, but rather they were there to lobby May to guarantee passporting.
*****
It's possible this will embolden Jeremy Corbyn to further change his party and its policies.
When I spoke to him just before his first leadership victory last year I asked him what lessons he had learned from his election to Parliament in 1983, when Labour went down to a disastrous defeat under Michael Foot.
Jeremy Corbyn draws some clear lessons from Michael Foot's defeat in 1983.
He told me: "It taught me the formation of the SDP was catastrophic to the election chances of Labour.
'The Conservative so-called triumph in 1983 owed more to the division of the opposition vote than a move to the left."
He certainly didn't share Gerald Kaufman's analysis that the anti-nuclear weapons and anti-EU manifesto was "the longest suicide note in history".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37449631
*****
This strongly suggests, unsurprisingly, that Corbyn attributes the crushing of Labour in the same election in which he entered Parliament to the SDP, taking no account of the fact that the 1983 manifesto platform wasn't particularly popular with the electorate.
The Far Left has learned nothing, and forgotten nothing. Expect defeat in the next election to be blamed entirely on boat rocking by the moderates, before the leadership passes seamlessly on to a Far Left successor (if JC doesn't fancy simply staying in post for another few years, of course.)
Labour is over as a centre-left party. It's not coming back.
Think of Corbyn as the John the Baptist figure for them. He has preached in the wilderness and ultimately prepared the ground. Then it is a matter of holding on to it long enough for the Messiah to come...
FWIW if there is one - some left-wing version of Tony Blair, a British and more socialist-leaning version of Trudeau Jr or one of the Kennedies - then it'd probably be next but one. Imagine whoever is anointed next, say Lisa Nandy, seems more likely in the gameplan to be a "steadying the ship" candidate until The One comes along.
Equivalent numbers produced under the normally accepted government methodology (WebTAG) show minimal variance between the Heathrow and Gatwick schemes.
The use of numbers generated by the PwC report has been criticised by the Airports Commission’s own economic advisers, Professor Peter Mackie and Brian Pearce.
"Experts" can be wrong or have an agenda,
http://www.prweek.com/article/1332084/department-transport-hires-heathrow-pr-director-simon-baugh
Gatwick, Luton, Stansted in that sense are better locations.
Gatwick and Stansted are sadly in the wrong place. Luton could do it but a place that would be ideal would be somewhere between the M4 and M40, east of Oxford.
Gatwick is on Thameslink as well as the entire Brighton Line service. About 20 trains an hour each way with through trains to Hastings, Brighton, Portsmouth, Southampton, Reading, Croydon, Clapham, London Victoria, London Bridge, London Blackfriars, London City, London Farringdon, London Kings Cross and St Pancras, Luton, Stevenage, Bedford, Peterborough and Cambridge
Heathrow will just get 4 an hour to Abbey Wood on Crossrail. 4 an hour to Londons worst located terminus Paddington or an interminable grind on the picc line. Big Deal.
Im 50 miles north of London and I would chose Gatwick every time. Heathrow is an overcrowded inaccessible dump.
Luton and Stansted are both more convenient although no London airport is as convenient as Manchester or Nottingham, or even Birmingham.
"Worcestershire County Council, the Police and particularly the County Surveyor of Worcestershire made repeated representations that a dual 3-lane standard motorway was appropriate, however the Ministry of Transport insisted that a dual 2-lane motorway would be built at a cost of around £8 million. When the decision became necessary to widen the Worcestershire section of M5, it cost £123 million."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M5_motorway#Construction
Restricting the number of flights using older equipment would be a reasonable trade off for the decades-overdue expansion of Heathrow.
- John Hurt in "Contact".
Edit/ since taking off (full power) is a lot noisier than landing (throttle almost closed), having the airport west of London makes sense from a noise perspective.