The end of a weird day. I still can't quite believe the British PM isn't at the EU summit. It's not just the EU. The British PM absent from a premier and highly relavent multinational forum which effects UK interests. And absent entirely by choice. It's so profoundly unBritish and a betrayal of our recent history. It just feels really weird though perhaps I'll get used to it. Though hopefully not too quickly. Something's are worth mourning. We'll just have to hope the miracle that is modern Germany is upto the destiny we've inexplicably manifested for them. Good Night PB !
It is a bit weird, in the sense that the new UKIP leader seems less weird than the leader of the Labour Party.
I would not be surprised to see UKIP edging close to Labour by this time next year with Corbyn re-elected and James UKIP leader. I also think there is as strong chance UKIP beat Labour in the Witney by-election and the County elections next May
Very unlikely in my opinion.
UKIP were just 2% behind Labour in the 2013 County elections and 8% behind Labour in Witney at the general election
UKIP are now 10% behind Labour in all council by elections held in September
lection of James today and by next May Corbyn will have been re-elected and Article 50 probably have been triggered with Brexit again at the top of the agenda!
Quite correct , having looked at all the CC up next May and the few unitaries I expect UKIP to lose around 105 of the 147 seats they are theoretically defending . They have already lost around 30 to by election losses and defections .
Rubbish, by next May, with Brexit in full swing and hard Brexiteers seeking to put pressure on the PM and with James a far more appealing leader than Corbyn I could well see UKIP getting around 25% of the vote in the County councils up for election
Dream On !!
UKIP are presently polling at about the level they got in May 2013, Labour often below the level they got last May, now UKIP have a new telegenic leader and Labour is about to re-elect Corbyn and with Brexit dominating the news next year I am certainly more than dreaming!
On current results, UKIP will do very well in Kent, Essex, Suffolk, Lincolnshire, the South Coast, but fall back elsewhere. But, who knows where we'll be in May.
Lincs ? 16 councillors elected in 2013 down to 12 now will lose 3 more due to boundary changes down to around 5 next May West Sussex 10 elected in 2013 down to 9 now will lose 1 more due to boundary changes will be down to 4 next May Hants 10 elected 2013 down to 8 now will be down to 1 or 2 at best next May
UKIP do well in Eastern England. You may not like it, but there it is.
Cambs 12 councillors elected in 2013 down to 10 now will lose 1 more through boundary changes likely to be down to 3 next May Norfolk 15 councillors elected in 2013 down to 13 now likely to be down to 5 next May Essex 9 councillors elected in 2013 down to 6 today likely to be down to 3 next May
I think May's honeymoon is already wearing off. and although she faces no obvious threat from a declining UKIP and a dysfunctional Labour Party, the voices of criticism from continuity Remain will not die down.
Indeed, as she now owns Brexit, she will be the focal point for continuity Remain attack.
In the absence of an obvious political vehicle, watch the hopes of Remainers fall alternately on moderate Labour groups, exiled Cameroonians, and the Lib Dems. The first to present a sane and compelling agenda could get quite a head of steam up.
May is vulnerable from every direction. Given how useless Cameron was becoming at getting stuff through in his second term, what hope May with a party more easily divided?
She may seek a formal agreement with the DUP. I cannot see her calling an election because without an irrevocable Brexit policy it would tear the Tories apart.
A few days ago, I saw Gary Johnson at 600+ to 1 mentioned. I thought this looked quite good value, given the circumstances, and have monitored it for a few days. Suddenly he's at 3800 to 1. Has anything terrible happened to him? I know he's a third party candidate, but surely just being on the ballot in 50 states should place him higher than most bar the 2 front runners. Has he done something daft?
A week ago, the chance of Hillary withdrawing was being seriously talked up. Now the market thinks it's unlikely this will happen, so there's no longer the huge underround there was a week ago on the two favourites. That said, I might have a quid on Johnson at 3800, just in case.
I think May's honeymoon is already wearing off. and although she faces no obvious threat from a declining UKIP and a dysfunctional Labour Party, the voices of criticism from continuity Remain will not die down.
Indeed, as she now owns Brexit, she will be the focal point for continuity Remain attack.
In the absence of an obvious political vehicle, watch the hopes of Remainers fall alternately on moderate Labour groups, exiled Cameroonians, and the Lib Dems. The first to present a sane and compelling agenda could get quite a head of steam up.
May is vulnerable from every direction. Given how useless Cameron was becoming at getting stuff through in his second term, what hope May with a party more easily divided?
She may seek a formal agreement with the DUP. I cannot see her calling an election because without an irrevocable Brexit policy it would tear the Tories apart.
I think May's honeymoon is already wearing off. and although she faces no obvious threat from a declining UKIP and a dysfunctional Labour Party, the voices of criticism from continuity Remain will not die down.
Indeed, as she now owns Brexit, she will be the focal point for continuity Remain attack.
In the absence of an obvious political vehicle, watch the hopes of Remainers fall alternately on moderate Labour groups, exiled Cameroonians, and the Lib Dems. The first to present a sane and compelling agenda could get quite a head of steam up.
May is vulnerable from every direction. Given how useless Cameron was becoming at getting stuff through in his second term, what hope May with a party more easily divided?
She may seek a formal agreement with the DUP. I cannot see her calling an election because without an irrevocable Brexit policy it would tear the Tories apart.
There will be no general election until 2020 but more voters want hard Brexit than continuity Remain, so I see James led UKIP as more of a threat to May than Farron led LDs or the moderates in Labour who are about to suffer another heavy defeat to Corbyn
As nautical Viagra to treat post imperial ererctile dysfunction goes it's a hell of a lot cheaper than Trident. Perhaps Corbyn will support it's building to create jobs as long as it never leaves port ?
I've got reservations but it is just great to see someone just let rip because he is funding himself and dosent have to tread on eggshells the whole time because he cant afford to offend some special interest group with a professional chip on their shoulder the size of the grand canyon who will lean on the candidates corporate sponsors if they put a word out of place that offends liberal (in the US sense) sensibilities.
I don't think it's having a chip on your shoulder though, to feel his comments regarding Hispanics, his comments about Megyn Kelly, or his support for the birther movement is out of line.
But you can really make a strong case that birtherism was spawned by Clinton's 2008 campaign. If that's the case then who is the racist? Wasn't "bitter clingers" a bit prejudiced and maybe people, whatever their complexion, should learn to take it if they want to dish it out.
@GardenWalker........sorry with a capital S and Y at the end. I'm so used to coming here and seeing the site populated by right wingers who glorify in the nihilism of the moronic, lowest common denominator, nihilistic right ideology.
Indeed. The same folks who in one breath complain about the controlling tendencies of the EU, seem to want to cosy up to Putin.
' “Jeremy hasn’t ever really led anything. He’s used to sitting in a small room talking about Nicaraguan peasants’ co-operatives while everyone nods,” a senior ally said at the time.'
I would not be surprised to see UKIP edging close to Labour by this time next year with Corbyn re-elected and James UKIP leader. I also think there is as strong chance UKIP beat Labour in the Witney by-election and the County elections next May
Very unlikely in my opinion.
UKIP were just 2% behind Labour in the 2013 County elections and 8% behind Labour in Witney at the general election
UKIP are now 10% behind Labour in all council by elections held in September
lection of James today and by next May Corbyn will have been re-elected and Article 50 probably have been triggered with Brexit again at the top of the agenda!
Quite correct , having looked at all the CC up next May and the few unitaries I expect UKIP to lose around 105 of the 147 seats they are theoretically defending . They have already lost around 30 to by election losses and defections .
Rubbish, by next May, with Brexit in full swing and hard Brexiteers seeking to put pressure on the PM and with James a far more appealing leader than Corbyn I could well see UKIP getting around 25% of the vote in the County councils up for election
Dream On !!
UKIP are presently polling at about the level they got in May 2013, Labour!
On current results, UKIP will do very well in Kent, Essex, Suffolk, Lincolnshire, the South Coast, but fall back elsewhere. But, who knows where we'll be in May.
Lincs ? 16 councillors elected in 2013 down to 12 now will lose 3 more due to boundary changes down to around 5 next May West Sussex 10 elected in 2013 down to 9 now will lose 1 more due to boundary changes will be down to 4 next May Hants 10 elected 2013 down to 8 now will be down to 1 or 2 at best next May
UKIP do well in Eastern England. You may not like it, but there it is.
Cambs 12 councillors elected in 2013 down to 10 now will lose 1 more through boundary changes likely to be down to 3 next May Norfolk 15 councillors elected in 2013 down to 13 now likely to be down to 5 next May Essex 9 councillors elected in 2013 down to 6 today likely to be down to 3 next May
UKIP have more county councillors than Labour in Cambridgeshire and Norfolk too and are only 4 behind them in Essex
@GardenWalker........sorry with a capital S and Y at the end. I'm so used to coming here and seeing the site populated by right wingers who glorify in the nihilism of the moronic, lowest common denominator, nihilistic right ideology.
Indeed. The same folks who in one breath complain about the controlling tendencies of the EU, seem to want to cosy up to Putin.
A few days ago, I saw Gary Johnson at 600+ to 1 mentioned. I thought this looked quite good value, given the circumstances, and have monitored it for a few days. Suddenly he's at 3800 to 1. Has anything terrible happened to him? I know he's a third party candidate, but surely just being on the ballot in 50 states should place him higher than most bar the 2 front runners. Has he done something daft?
he needs 15% in 5 named opinion poles, to get in the first Presidential debate, those opinion poles that have now all been taken and released and he did not make it. v sad.
For the moment, I am holding on to my stake in him, not worth laying him or cashing out now at those odds. Still possible in theory that if the debate terns into such a slanging off section that there might be sufficient calls to include him in second or third but.....he will be outside the debate venue and, live streamed, his answers to the questions, he might even get a million watches, but.....
I think he has still introduced a lot of people to the word libertarian and to some extent the ideology of classical liberalism, it was always going to be a long shot, may be 2020???
He wont be a dictator though. Enough crap presidents and Congress might insist on appointing an experienced member of the house of representative to advise him......
I agree that Trump will find that his powers in practice are limited, but that's not a reason to vote for him. Essentially saying "don't worry Congress will muzzle him" acknowledges that left to his own devices he'd be rubbish or worse.
Supporting Trump with the claim that he doesn't mean what he says, or won't be able to do what he says - is the height of recklessness and stupidity.
He has baited the media, successfully, with a campaign of racist, misogynist grotesquerie.
Surprised the amount of folks on here with latent fascist tendencies.
There will be no general election until 2020 but more voters want hard Brexit than continuity Remain, so I see James led UKIP as more of a threat to May than Farron led LDs or the moderates in Labour who are about to suffer another heavy defeat to Corbyn
I really don't think so.
Diane James is no Nigel Farage. UKIP is a declining force, they have achieved what they set out for, and the general public don't care enough about the various gradations of Brexit to militate one way or another.
They'll be the party of the c10pc discontented, who won't vote for the big parties on principle.
May's nigh-impossible task is to keep her right and left onside enough until she can get the bones of a Brexit deal in place.
But the most potent attacks, because the most pertinent and searching, will be from continuity Remainers.
@GardenWalker........sorry with a capital S and Y at the end. I'm so used to coming here and seeing the site populated by right wingers who glorify in the nihilism of the moronic, lowest common denominator, nihilistic right ideology.
Indeed. The same folks who in one breath complain about the controlling tendencies of the EU, seem to want to cosy up to Putin.
There will be no general election until 2020 but more voters want hard Brexit than continuity Remain, so I see James led UKIP as more of a threat to May than Farron led LDs or the moderates in Labour who are about to suffer another heavy defeat to Corbyn
I really don't think so.
Diane James is no Nigel Farage. UKIP is a declining force, they have achieved what they set out for, and the general public don't care enough about the various gradations of Brexit to militate one way or another.
They'll be the party of the c10pc discontented, who won't vote for the big parties on principle.
May's nigh-impossible task is to keep her right and left onside enough until she can get the bones of a Brexit deal in place.
But the most potent attacks, because the most pertinent and searching, will be from continuity Remainers.
I think that is the great imponderable in modern British politics. Clearly, the Labour Party is dying. I imagine scoring between 10-20% in general elections. But what will replace them? I'd guess some sort of socially conservative nationalists. Corbyn's brownshirts after 2020? Horrible thought.
There will be no general election until 2020 but more voters want hard Brexit than continuity Remain, so I see James led UKIP as more of a threat to May than Farron led LDs or the moderates in Labour who are about to suffer another heavy defeat to Corbyn
I really don't think so.
Diane James is no Nigel Farage. UKIP is a declining force, they have achieved what they set out for, and the general public don't care enough about the various gradations of Brexit to militate one way or another.
They'll be the party of the c10pc discontented, who won't vote for the big parties on principle.
May's nigh-impossible task is to keep her right and left onside enough until she can get the bones of a Brexit deal in place.
But the most potent attacks, because the most pertinent and searching, will be from continuity Remainers.
She could well be Sturgeon to Farage's Salmond. The Leave voters who voted for Brexit mainly to end immigration certainly do care about that being delivered and they constitute about 25-30% of the electorate. Continuity Remainers ie those who want full access to the single market and free movement to continue unfettered as now are actually closer to the 10% figure you gave
@GardenWalker........sorry with a capital S and Y at the end. I'm so used to coming here and seeing the site populated by right wingers who glorify in the nihilism of the moronic, lowest common denominator, nihilistic right ideology.
Indeed. The same folks who in one breath complain about the controlling tendencies of the EU, seem to want to cosy up to Putin.
True nihilism.
C*ckwomble
An asterisk in cockwomble? What a fud.
Dammit man! You're right. I have old fashioned ideas about how spam traps work.
Still, apart from a bit of nitpicking no objection from you to the idea that Tyson is a massive cockwomble eh? Pretty much incontrovertible I'd have thought.
@GardenWalker........sorry with a capital S and Y at the end. I'm so used to coming here and seeing the site populated by right wingers who glorify in the nihilism of the moronic, lowest common denominator, nihilistic right ideology.
Indeed. The same folks who in one breath complain about the controlling tendencies of the EU, seem to want to cosy up to Putin.
True nihilism.
C*ckwomble
An asterisk in cockwomble? What a fud.
Dammit man! You're right. I have old fashioned ideas about how spam traps work.
@GardenWalker........sorry with a capital S and Y at the end. I'm so used to coming here and seeing the site populated by right wingers who glorify in the nihilism of the moronic, lowest common denominator, nihilistic right ideology.
Indeed. The same folks who in one breath complain about the controlling tendencies of the EU, seem to want to cosy up to Putin.
True nihilism.
C*ckwomble
An asterisk in cockwomble? What a fud.
Dammit man! You're right. I have old fashioned ideas about how spam traps work.
There will be no general election until 2020 but more voters want hard Brexit than continuity Remain, so I see James led UKIP as more of a threat to May than Farron led LDs or the moderates in Labour who are about to suffer another heavy defeat to Corbyn
I really don't think so.
Diane James is no Nigel Farage. UKIP is a declining force, they have achieved what they set out for, and the general public don't care enough about the various gradations of Brexit to militate one way or another.
They'll be the party of the c10pc discontented, who won't vote for the big parties on principle.
May's nigh-impossible task is to keep her right and left onside enough until she can get the bones of a Brexit deal in place.
But the most potent attacks, because the most pertinent and searching, will be from continuity Remainers.
She could well be Sturgeon to Farage's Salmond. The Leave voters who voted for Brexit mainly to end immigration certainly do care about that being delivered and they constitute about 25-30% of the electorate. Continuity Remainers ie those who want full access to the single market and free movement to continue unfettered as now are actually closer to the 10% figure you gave
She may be. But I doubt it. Let's see.
As to the Leave voters, they've got what they wanted, May is pledged to deliver it. I also think that, outside the extraordinary circumstances of the referendum, people will revert to voting on the classically salient issues, NHS etc.
Continuity Remainers are as difficult to generalise about as Brexiteers in that they range from full on Euro-foamers to those who have accepted the vote but expect the least economically harmful divorce.
However they do tend to come from the most vocal, media-literate, and articulate demographic - and are scrutinising May closely.
@GardenWalker........sorry with a capital S and Y at the end. I'm so used to coming here and seeing the site populated by right wingers who glorify in the nihilism of the moronic, lowest common denominator, nihilistic right ideology.
Indeed. The same folks who in one breath complain about the controlling tendencies of the EU, seem to want to cosy up to Putin.
True nihilism.
C*ckwomble
An asterisk in cockwomble? What a fud.
Dammit man! You're right. I have old fashioned ideas about how spam traps work.
There's a chap running a course in Sc*nthorpe.
I remember back around 2005 being very puzzled why my comment about the Penistone and Stocksbridge constituency never got published...
@GardenWalker........sorry with a capital S and Y at the end. I'm so used to coming here and seeing the site populated by right wingers who glorify in the nihilism of the moronic, lowest common denominator, nihilistic right ideology.
Indeed. The same folks who in one breath complain about the controlling tendencies of the EU, seem to want to cosy up to Putin.
True nihilism.
C*ckwomble
An asterisk in cockwomble? What a fud.
Dammit man! You're right. I have old fashioned ideas about how spam traps work.
There's a chap running a course in Sc*nthorpe.
I remember back around 2005 being very puzzled why my comment about the Penistone and Stocksbridge constituency never got published...
Nope, that was just the lizard people interfering again.
I don't entirely agree, what America does not need now is an inspirational leader but a tough, competent one who gets things done, which Obama did not always do, however good his speechmaking. For example, JFK was succeeded by LBJ and Nixon, neither anything like as inspiring but both got things done, Hillary or Trump would certainly be closer to the latter than Obama's more JFK like persona. Equally Reagan was succeeded by the dull Bush Snr, who proved to be highly effective in foreign policy particularly
IMO the problem is that neither Trump or Clinton seem to: a) have any idea of what needs doing. b) the strength to do it even if they had.
America is spending too long saying 'we're great', whilst China and others see little more than weakness. The US needs to show it has great vision, and the power to do it.
And that does not mean another war.
Trump has threatened China with tariffs and will substantially increase the US military, Hillary is more pragmatic but probably one of the most experienced foreign policy candidates ever to have run for president and is certainly more of a hawk than Obama but with the diplomatic skills she gained as Secretary of State. Obama showed great vision, in foreign policy at least little action other than withdrawing ground troops from Iraq he has not achieved a great deal of what he set out to, JFK too produced the Bay of Pigs even if he avoided the Cuban Missile Crisis.
They're perfect examples of what I'm talking about. Increasing the military: yawn (they're already massively the largest). Tariffs: yawn.
Neither show America to be a world leader, even in the unlikely event that their actions reflect their words. Neither inspire.
Neither will make the world pause and say: "Wow!"
Kennedy and LBJ got man onto the moon, showing that the US could achieve the (near) impossible. Reagan defeated Russia and ended the Cold War without actually fighting.
It was actually Nixon's presidency which saw a man on the moon. Reagan did the talking but the Cold War ended under Bush Snr
And those are the legacies of two Presidents.
JFK put a man on the Moon, Obama put a man in the girls' bathroom.
There will be no general election until 2020 but more voters want hard Brexit than continuity Remain, so I see James led UKIP as more of a threat to May than Farron led LDs or the moderates in Labour who are about to suffer another heavy defeat to Corbyn
I really don't think so.
Diane James is no Nigel Farage. UKIP is a declining force, they have achieved what they set out for, and the general public don't care enough about the various gradations of Brexit to militate one way or another.
They'll be the party of the c10pc discontented, who won't vote for the big parties on principle.
May's nigh-impossible task is to keep her right and left onside enough until she can get the bones of a Brexit deal in place.
But the most potent attacks, because the most pertinent and searching, will be from continuity Remainers.
She could well be Sturgeon to Farage's Salmond. The Leave voters who voted for Brexit mainly to end immigration certainly do care about that being delivered and they constitute about 25-30% of the electorate. Continuity Remainers ie those who want full access to the single market and free movement to continue unfettered as now are actually closer to the 10% figure you gave
She may be. But I doubt it. Let's see.
As to the Leave voters, they've got what they wanted, May is pledged to deliver it. I also think that, outside the extraordinary circumstances of the referendum, people will revert to voting on the classically salient issues, NHS etc.
Continuity Remainers are as difficult to generalise about as Brexiteers in that they range from full on Euro-foamers to those who have accepted the vote but expect the least economically harmful divorce.
However they do tend to come from the most vocal, media-literate, and articulate demographic - and are scrutinising May closely.
They have not yet got what they want ie a complete end to free movement and of course immigration is still polling as the number one issue. May has also already ruled out a points system.
Continuity Remainers may be vocal amongst the elite but they are a much smaller proportion of the general population
There will be no general election until 2020 but more voters want hard Brexit than continuity Remain, so I see James led UKIP as more of a threat to May than Farron led LDs or the moderates in Labour who are about to suffer another heavy defeat to Corbyn
I really don't think so.
Diane James is no Nigel Farage. UKIP is a declining force, they have achieved what they set out for, and the general public don't care enough about the various gradations of Brexit to militate one way or another.
They'll be the party of the c10pc discontented, who won't vote for the big parties on principle.
May's nigh-impossible task is to keep her right and left onside enough until she can get the bones of a Brexit deal in place.
But the most potent attacks, because the most pertinent and searching, will be from continuity Remainers.
She could well be Sturgeon to Farage's Salmond. The Leave voters who voted for Brexit mainly to end immigration certainly do care about that being delivered and they constitute about 25-30% of the electorate. Continuity Remainers ie those who want full access to the single market and free movement to continue unfettered as now are actually closer to the 10% figure you gave
She may be. But I doubt it. Let's see.
As to the Leave voters, they've got what they wanted, May is pledged to deliver it. I also think that, outside the extraordinary circumstances of the referendum, people will revert to voting on the classically salient issues, NHS etc.
Continuity Remainers are as difficult to generalise about as Brexiteers in that they range from full on Euro-foamers to those who have accepted the vote but expect the least economically harmful divorce.
However they do tend to come from the most vocal, media-literate, and articulate demographic - and are scrutinising May closely.
They have not yet got what they want ie a complete end to free movement and of course immigration is still polling as the number one issue. May has also already ruled out a points system.
Continuity Remainers may be vocal amongst the elite but they are a much smaller proportion of the general population
I doubt May will get away with triggering Article 50 before there's a real Westminster debate about what kind of Brexit to aim for. Even hardline Brexiteers may find their interests aligned with Remainers in wanting to stall the process if it looks like their views will not prevail.
I don't entirely agree, what America does not need now is an inspirational leader but a tough, competent one who gets things done, which Obama did not always do, however good his speechmaking. For example, JFK was succeeded by LBJ and Nixon, neither anything like as inspiring but both got things done, Hillary or Trump would certainly be closer to the latter than Obama's more JFK like persona. Equally Reagan was succeeded by the dull Bush Snr, who proved to be highly effective in foreign policy particularly
IMO the problem is that neither Trump or Clinton seem to: a) have any idea of what needs doing. b) the strength to do it even if they had.
America is spending too long saying 'we're great', whilst China and others see little more than weakness. The US needs to show it has great vision, and the power to do it.
And that does not mean another war.
Trump has threatened China with tariffs and will substantially increase the US military, Hillary is more pragmatic but probably one of the most experienced foreign policy candidates ever to have run for president and is certainly more of a hawk than Obama but with the diplomatic skills she gained as Secretary of State. Obama showed great vision, in foreign policy at least little action other than withdrawing ground troops from Iraq he has not achieved a great deal of what he set out to, JFK too produced the Bay of Pigs even if he avoided the Cuban Missile Crisis.
They're perfect examples of what I'm talking about. Increasing the military: yawn (they're already massively the largest). Tariffs: yawn.
Neither show America to be a world leader, even in the unlikely event that their actions reflect their words. Neither inspire.
Neither will make the world pause and say: "Wow!"
Kennedy and LBJ got man onto the moon, showing that the US could achieve the (near) impossible. Reagan defeated Russia and ended the Cold War without actually fighting.
It was actually Nixon's presidency which saw a man on the moon. Reagan did the talking but the Cold War ended under Bush Snr
And those are the legacies of two Presidents.
JFK put a man on the Moon, Obama put a man in the girls' bathroom.
Although it was actually Nixon who saw it through to completion and Obamacare and gay marriage, whatever you may think of them, were more significant domestic policies than JFK managed to get through, albeit allowing for his short period in office
I don't entirely agree, what America does not need now is an inspirational leader but a tough, competent one who gets things done, which Obama did not always do, however good his speechmaking. For example, JFK was succeeded by LBJ and Nixon, neither anything like as inspiring but both got things done, Hillary or Trump would certainly be closer to the latter than Obama's more JFK like persona. Equally Reagan was succeeded by the dull Bush Snr, who proved to be highly effective in foreign policy particularly
IMO the problem is that neither Trump or Clinton seem to: a) have any idea of what needs doing. b) the strength to do it even if they had.
America is spending too long saying 'we're great', whilst China and others see little more than weakness. The US needs to show it has great vision, and the power to do it.
And that does not mean another war.
Trump has threatened China with tariffs and will substantially increase the US military, Hillary is more pragmatic but probably one of the most experienced foreign policy candidates ever to have run for president and is certainly more of a hawk than Obama but with the diplomatic skills she gained as Secretary of State. Obama showed great vision, in foreign policy at least little action other than withdrawing ground troops from Iraq he has not achieved a great deal of what he set out to, JFK too produced the Bay of Pigs even if he avoided the Cuban Missile Crisis.
They're perfect examples of what I'm talking about. Increasing the military: yawn (they're already massively the largest). Tariffs: yawn.
Neither show America to be a world leader, even in the unlikely event that their actions reflect their words. Neither inspire.
Neither will make the world pause and say: "Wow!"
Kennedy and LBJ got man onto the moon, showing that the US could achieve the (near) impossible. Reagan defeated Russia and ended the Cold War without actually fighting.
It was actually Nixon's presidency which saw a man on the moon. Reagan did the talking but the Cold War ended under Bush Snr
And those are the legacies of two Presidents.
JFK put a man on the Moon, Obama put a man in the girls' bathroom.
Although it was actually Nixon who saw it through to completion and Obamacare and gay marriage, whatever you may think of them, were more significant domestic policies than JFK managed to get through, albeit allowing for his short period in office
Gay marriage wasn't really a policy though, it was a judicial decision. And it's not the same thing as the transgender bathrooms issue I believe Geoff is alluding to.
There will be no general election until 2020 but more voters want hard Brexit than continuity Remain, so I see James led UKIP as more of a threat to May than Farron led LDs or the moderates in Labour who are about to suffer another heavy defeat to Corbyn
I really don't think so.
Diane James is no Nigel Farage. UKIP is a declining force, they have achieved what they set out for, and the general public don't care enough about the various gradations of Brexit to militate one way or another.
They'll be the party of the c10pc discontented, who won't vote for the big parties on principle.
May's nigh-impossible task is to keep her right and left onside enough until she can get the bones of a Brexit deal in place.
But the most potent attacks, because the most pertinent and searching, will be from continuity Remainers.
She could well be Sturgeon to Farage's Salmond. The Leave voters who voted for Brexit mainly to end immigration certainly do care about that being delivered and they constitute about 25-30% of the electorate. Continuity Remainers ie those who want full access to the single market and free movement to continue unfettered as now are actually closer to the 10% figure you gave
She may be. But I doubt it. Let's see.
As to the Leave voters, they've got what they wanted, May is pledged to deliver it. I also think that, outside the extraordinary circumstances of the referendum, people will revert to voting on the classically salient issues, NHS etc.
Continuity Remainers are as difficult to generalise about as Brexiteers in that they range from full on Euro-foamers to those who have accepted the vote but expect the least economically harmful divorce.
However they do tend to come from the most vocal, media-literate, and articulate demographic - and are scrutinising May closely.
They have not yet got what they want ie a complete end to free movement and of course immigration is still polling as the number one issue. May has also already ruled out a points system.
Continuity Remainers may be vocal amongst the elite but they are a much smaller proportion of the general population
I doubt May will get away with triggering Article 50 before there's a real Westminster debate about what kind of Brexit to aim for. Even hardline Brexiteers may find their interests aligned with Remainers in wanting to stall the process if it looks like their views will not prevail.
May will not let them hold it up indefinitely, she may have a brief debate with no vote beforehand but that is it
I don't entirely agree, what America does not need now is an inspirational leader but a tough, competent one who gets things done, which Obama did not always do, however good his speechmaking. For example, JFK was succeeded by LBJ and Nixon, neither anything like as inspiring but both got things done, Hillary or Trump would certainly be closer to the latter than Obama's more JFK like persona. Equally Reagan was succeeded by the dull Bush Snr, who proved to be highly effective in foreign policy particularly
IMO the problem is that neither Trump or Clinton seem to: a) have any idea of what needs doing. b) the strength to do it even if they had.
America is spending too long saying 'we're great', whilst China and others see little more than weakness. The US needs to show it has great vision, and the power to do it.
And that does not mean another war.
Trump has threatened China with tariffs and will substantially increase the US military, Hillary is more pragmatic but probably one of the most experienced foreign policy candidates ever to have run for president and is certainly more of a hawk than Obama but with the diplomatic skills she gained as Secretary of State. Obama showed great vision, in foreign policy at least little action other than withdrawing ground troops from Iraq he has not achieved a great deal of what he set out to, JFK too produced the Bay of Pigs even if he avoided the Cuban Missile Crisis.
They're perfect examples of what I'm talking about. Increasing the military: yawn (they're already massively the largest). Tariffs: ya
It was actually Nixon's presidency which saw a man on the moon. Reagan did the talking but the Cold War ended under Bush Snr
And those are the legacies of two Presidents.
JFK put a man on the Moon, Obama put a man in the girls' bathroom.
Although it was actually Nixon who saw it through to completion and Obamacare and gay marriage, whatever you may think of them, were more significant domestic policies than JFK managed to get through, albeit allowing for his short period in office
Gay marriage wasn't really a policy though, it was a judicial decision. And it's not the same thing as the transgender bathrooms issue I believe Geoff is alluding to.
Obama appointed SC Justices though who helped it on its way and his administration expanded benefits to survivor benefits, prison visits, bankruptcies etc
A few days ago, I saw Gary Johnson at 600+ to 1 mentioned. I thought this looked quite good value, given the circumstances, and have monitored it for a few days. Suddenly he's at 3800 to 1. Has anything terrible happened to him? I know he's a third party candidate, but surely just being on the ballot in 50 states should place him higher than most bar the 2 front runners. Has he done something daft?
Perhaps we need to await confirmation from a few more polls but there seems to be some evidence that May's honeymoon is fading and the Tory lead falling back to more modest levels. I had always expected this by early Autumn and will not be too surprised if we see some neck and neck polls by Xmas.
Very unlikely in my opinion.
UKIP were just 2% behind Labour in the 2013 County elections and 8% behind Labour in Witney at the general election
UKIP are now 10% behind Labour in all council by elections held in September
Council by elections rarely predict full council results exactly and of course next May's elections are only in County Councils unlike this month's council by elections, virtually no metropolitan councils and no London councils (where Corbyn would do best) will be up for election and this month's results also preceded the election of James today and by next May Corbyn will have been re-elected and Article 50 probably have been triggered with Brexit again at the top of the agenda!
But UKIP did so well at the 2013 County Council elections i.
Who has just been elected UKIP leader today? Why the very same UKIP candidate in the Eastleigh by election in 2013! Brexit of course is publicity beyond anything that by election could have given too
Neither here nor there. She was a good candidate for Eastleigh at that particular time , but when it comes to informed comment on elections etc she has often come across on results programmes as not really having much idea - pretty well ignorant when it comes to psephology. That said, she might have some appeal to Tory voters.
Absolutely here and there when Labour is about to re-elect its worst leader since Michael Foot, UKIP have a telegenic, state educated, sharp woman as their new leader. Her tough message on immigration and support for ending free movement and a points based system will not just appeal to some Tory voters, it will potentially offer an opportunity for UKIP to make yet further inroads into the white working class Labour vote fed up with Corbyn's open borders approach, especially the 30% of Labour voters who voted Leave
It was you who who suggested that UKIP needed Woolfe to appeal to Northern Labour voters. They failed to take your advice!
Perhaps we need to await confirmation from a few more polls but there seems to be some evidence that May's honeymoon is fading and the Tory lead falling back to more modest levels. I had always expected this by early Autumn and will not be too surprised if we see some neck and neck polls by Xmas.
Very unlikely in my opinion.
UKIP were just 2% behind Labour in the 2013 County elections and 8% behind Labour in Witney at the general election
UKIP are now 10% behind Labour in all council by elections held in September
Council by elections rarely predict full council results exactly and of course next May's elections are only in County Councils unlike this month's council by elections, virtually no metropolitan councils and n
But UKIP did so well at the 2013 County Council elections i.
Who has just been elected UKIP leader today? Why the very same UKIP candidate in the Eastleigh by election in 2013! Brexit of course is publicity beyond anything that by election could have given too
Neither here nor there. She was a good candidate for Eastleigh at that particular time , but when it comes to informed comment on elections etc she has often come across on results programmes as not really having much idea - pretty well ignorant when it comes to psephology. That said, she might have some appeal to Tory voters.
Absolutely here and there when Labour is about to re-elect its worst leader since Michael Foot, UKIP have a telegenic, state educated, sharp woman as their new leader. Her tough message on immigration and support for ending free movement and a points based system will not just appeal to some Tory voters, it will potentially offer an opportunity for UKIP to make yet further inroads into the white working class Labour vote fed up with Corbyn's open borders approach, especially the 30% of Labour voters who voted Leave
It was you who who suggested that UKIP needed Woolfe to appeal to Northern Labour voters. They failed to take your advice!
James is actually from the same wing and saying much the same things, as long as the Carswellite wing was defeated, which it was today, UKIP will still be able to appeal to working class Labour voters. I also thought James gave a very punchy speech and I still expect Woolfe to have a senior role in the party under her leadership
I UKIP were just 2% behind Labour in the 2013 County elections and 8% behind Labour in Witney at the general election
UKIP are now 10% behind Labour in all council by elections held in September
lection of James today and by next May Corbyn will have been re-elected and Article 50 probably have been triggered with Brexit again at the top of the agenda!
Quite correct , having looked at all the CC up next May and the few unitaries I expect UKIP to lose around 105 of the 147 seats they are theoretically defending . They have already lost around 30 to by election losses and defections .
Rubbish, by next May, with Brexit in full swing and hard Brexiteers seeking to put pressure on the PM and with James a far more appealing leader than Corbyn I could well see UKIP getting around 25% of the vote in the County councils up for election
Dream On !!
UKIP are presently polling at about the level they got in May 2013, Labour!
On current results, UKIP will do very well in Kent, Essex, Suffolk, Lincolnshire, the South Coast, but fall back elsewhere. But, who knows where we'll be in May.
Lincs ? 16 councillors elected in 2013 down to 12 now will lose 3 more due to boundary changes down to around 5 next May West Sussex 10 elected in 2013 down to 9 now will lose 1 more due to boundary changes will be down to 4 next May Hants 10 elected 2013 down to 8 now will be down to 1 or 2 at best next May
UKIP do well in Eastern England. You may not like it, but there it is.
Cambs 12 councillors elected in 2013 down to 10 now will lose 1 more through boundary changes likely to be down to 3 next May Norfolk 15 councillors elected in 2013 down to 13 now likely to be down to 5 next May Essex 9 councillors elected in 2013 down to 6 today likely to be down to 3 next May
UKIP have more county councillors than Labour in Cambridgeshire and Norfolk too and are only 4 behind them in Essex
Not in Norfolk - Labour are now the second party following a by election gain from UKIP back in late 2013.
Perhaps we need to await confirmation from a few more polls but there seems to be some evidence that May's honeymoon is fading and the Tory lead falling back to more modest levels. I had always expected this by early Autumn and will not be too surprised if we see some neck and neck polls by Xmas.
UKIP were just 2% behind Labour in the 2013 County elections and 8% behind Labour in
Council by elections rarely predict full council results exactly and of course next May's elections are only in County Councils unlike this month's council by elections, virtually no metropolitan councils and n
But UKIP did so well at the 2013 County Council elections i.
Who has just been elected UKIP leader today? Why the very same UKIP candidate in the Eastleigh by election in 2013! Brexit of course is publicity beyond anything that by election could have given too
Neither here nor there. She was a good candidate for Eastleigh at that particular time , but when it comes to informed comment on elections etc she has often come across on results programmes as not really having much idea - pretty well ignorant when it comes to psephology. That said, she might have some appeal to Tory voters.
Absolutely here and there when Labour is about to re-elect its worst leader since Michael Foot, UKIP have a telegenic, state educated, sharp woman as their new leader. Her tough message on immigration and support for ending free movement and a points based system will not just appeal to some Tory voters, it will potentially offer an opportunity for UKIP to make yet further inroads into the white working class Labour vote fed up with Corbyn's open borders approach, especially the 30% of Labour voters who voted Leave
It was you who who suggested that UKIP needed Woolfe to appeal to Northern Labour voters. They failed to take your advice!
Her persona is very much that of a 'Tory lady' - not easy to see that resonating in traditional working class areas no matter how much she appealed to middle class voters in Eastleigh.
There will be no general election until 2020 but more voters want hard Brexit than continuity Remain, so I see James led UKIP as more of a threat to May than Farron led LDs or the moderates in Labour who are about to suffer another heavy defeat to Corbyn
I really don't think so.
Diane James is no Nigel Farage. UKIP is a declining force, they have achieved what they set out for, and the general public don't care enough about the various gradations of Brexit to militate one way or another.
They'll be the party of the c10pc discontented, who won't vote for the big parties on principle.
May's nigh-impossible task is to keep her right and left onside enough until she can get the bones of a Brexit deal in place.
But the most potent attacks, because the most pertinent and searching, will be from continuity Remainers.
I think that is the great imponderable in modern British politics. Clearly, the Labour Party is dying. I imagine scoring between 10-20% in general elections. But what will replace them? I'd guess some sort of socially conservative nationalists. Corbyn's brownshirts after 2020? Horrible thought.
But we have had polls this week giving Labour 34% and 31% - a bit higher than the 29.7% polled under Gordon Brown in 2010.
Perhaps we need to await confirmation from a few more polls but there seems to be some evidence that May's honeymoon is fading and the Tory lead falling back to more modest levels. I had always expected this by early Autumn and will not be too surprised if we see some neck and neck polls by Xmas.
UKIP were just 2% behind Labour in the 2013 County elections and 8% behind Labour in
Council by elections rarely predict full council results exactly and of course next May's elections are only in County Councils unlike this month's council by elections, virtually no metropolitan councils and n
But UKIP did so well at the 2013 County Council elections i.
Who has just been elected UKIP leader today? Why the very same UKIP candidate in the Eastleigh by election in 2013! Brexit of course is publicity beyond anything that by election could have given too
Neither here nor there. She was a good candidate for Eastleigh at that particular time , but when it comes to informed comment on elections etc she has often come across on results programmes as not really having much idea - pretty well ignorant when it comes to psephology. That said, she might have some appeal to Tory voters.
Absolutely here and there when Labour is about to re-elect its worst leader since Michael Foot, UKIP have a telegenic, state educated, sharp woman as their new leader. Her tough message on immigration and support for ending free movement and a points based system will not just appeal to some Tory voters, it will potentially offer an opportunity for UKIP to make yet further inroads into the white working class Labour vote fed up with Corbyn's open borders approach, especially the 30% of Labour voters who voted Leave
It was you who who suggested that UKIP needed Woolfe to appeal to Northern Labour voters. They failed to take your advice!
Her persona is very much that of a 'Tory lady' - not easy to see that resonating in traditional working class areas no matter how much she appealed to middle class voters in Eastleigh.
She is more lower middle class and she certainly has more connection with them and their concerns than the Islington pro immigration Corbyn
There will be no general election until 2020 but more voters want hard Brexit than continuity Remain, so I see James led UKIP as more of a threat to May than Farron led LDs or the moderates in Labour who are about to suffer another heavy defeat to Corbyn
I really don't think so.
Diane James is no Nigel Farage. UKIP is a declining force, they have achieved what they set out for, and the general public don't care enough about the various gradations of Brexit to militate one way or another.
They'll be the party of the c10pc discontented, who won't vote for the big parties on principle.
May's nigh-impossible task is to keep her right and left onside enough until she can get the bones of a Brexit deal in place.
But the most potent attacks, because the most pertinent and searching, will be from continuity Remainers.
I think that is the great imponderable in modern British politics. Clearly, the Labour Party is dying. I imagine scoring between 10-20% in general elections. But what will replace them? I'd guess some sort of socially conservative nationalists. Corbyn's brownshirts after 2020? Horrible thought.
But we have had polls this week giving Labour 34% and 31% - a bit higher than the 29.7% polled under Gordon Brown in 2010.
Other polls this month have had Labour in the twenties
There will be no general election until 2020 but more voters want hard Brexit than continuity Remain, so I see James led UKIP as more of a threat to May than Farron led LDs or the moderates in Labour who are about to suffer another heavy defeat to Corbyn
I really don't think so.
Diane James is no Nigel Farage. UKIP is a declining force, they have achieved what they set out for, and the general public don't care enough about the various gradations of Brexit to militate one way or another.
They'll be the party of the c10pc discontented, who won't vote for the big parties on principle.
May's nigh-impossible task is to keep her right and left onside enough until she can get the bones of a Brexit deal in place.
But the most potent attacks, because the most pertinent and searching, will be from continuity Remainers.
I think that is the great imponderable in modern British politics. Clearly, the Labour Party is dying. I imagine scoring between 10-20% in general elections. But what will replace them? I'd guess some sort of socially conservative nationalists. Corbyn's brownshirts after 2020? Horrible thought.
But we have had polls this week giving Labour 34% and 31% - a bit higher than the 29.7% polled under Gordon Brown in 2010.
Other polls this month have had Labour in the twenties
There will be no general election until 2020 but more voters want hard Brexit than continuity Remain, so I see James led UKIP as more of a threat to May than Farron led LDs or the moderates in Labour who are about to suffer another heavy defeat to Corbyn
I really don't think so.
Diane James is no Nigel Farage. UKIP is a declining force, they have achieved what they set out for, and the general public don't care enough about the various gradations of Brexit to militate one way or another.
They'll be the party of the c10pc discontented, who won't vote for the big parties on principle.
May's nigh-impossible task is to keep her right and left onside enough until she can get the bones of a Brexit deal in place.
But the most potent attacks, because the most pertinent and searching, will be from continuity Remainers.
I think that is the great imponderable in modern British politics. Clearly, the Labour Party is dying. I imagine scoring between 10-20% in general elections. But what will replace them? I'd guess some sort of socially conservative nationalists. Corbyn's brownshirts after 2020? Horrible thought.
But we have had polls this week giving Labour 34% and 31% - a bit higher than the 29.7% polled under Gordon Brown in 2010.
With the lack of an alternative anti-government party, much of that support will be soft (also true for the Tories to an extent but the forced-choice question saves the Blue's day there).
There will be no general election until 2020 but more voters want hard Brexit than continuity Remain, so I see James led UKIP as more of a threat to May than Farron led LDs or the moderates in Labour who are about to suffer another heavy defeat to Corbyn
I really don't think so.
Diane James is no Nigel Farage. UKIP is a declining force, they have achieved what they set out for, and the general public don't care enough about the various gradations of Brexit to militate one way or another.
They'll be the party of the c10pc discontented, who won't vote for the big parties on principle.
May's nigh-impossible task is to keep her right and left onside enough until she can get the bones of a Brexit deal in place.
But the most potent attacks, because the most pertinent and searching, will be from continuity Remainers.
I think that is the great imponderable in modern British politics. Clearly, the Labour Party is dying. I imagine scoring between 10-20% in general elections. But what will replace them? I'd guess some sort of socially conservative nationalists. Corbyn's brownshirts after 2020? Horrible thought.
But we have had polls this week giving Labour 34% and 31% - a bit higher than the 29.7% polled under Gordon Brown in 2010.
With the lack of an alternative anti-government party, much of that support will be soft (also true for the Tories to an extent but the forced-choice question saves the Blue's day there).
Maybe ,David, but I would have thought that after Labour's pretty dire summer they must be quite relieved - particularly in the context of May's honeymoon - to see their support more or less unchanged from May 2015.
There will be no general election until 2020 but more voters want hard Brexit than continuity Remain, so I see James led UKIP as more of a threat to May than Farron led LDs or the moderates in Labour who are about to suffer another heavy defeat to Corbyn
I really don't think so.
Diane James is no Nigel Farage. UKIP is a declining force, they have achieved what they set out for, and the general public don't care enough about the various gradations of Brexit to militate one way or another.
They'll be the party of the c10pc discontented, who won't vote for the big parties on principle.
May's nigh-impossible task is to keep her right and left onside enough until she can get the bones of a Brexit deal in place.
But the most potent attacks, because the most pertinent and searching, will be from continuity Remainers.
I think that is the great imponderable in modern British politics. Clearly, the Labour Party is dying. I imagine scoring between 10-20% in general elections. But what will replace them? I'd guess some sort of socially conservative nationalists. Corbyn's brownshirts after 2020? Horrible thought.
But we have had polls this week giving Labour 34% and 31% - a bit higher than the 29.7% polled under Gordon Brown in 2010.
With the lack of an alternative anti-government party, much of that support will be soft (also true for the Tories to an extent but the forced-choice question saves the Blue's day there).
Maybe ,David, but I would have thought that after Labour's pretty dire summer they must be quite relieved - particularly in the context of May's honeymoon - to see their support more or less unchanged from May 2015.
Perhaps, but Miliband was about eight points ahead on average at this stage of the last parliament. Also, the local government by-elections seem to show that Labour's gaining in the wrong places, so piling even bigger majorities in Hackney this week while losing more marginal seats.
I don't entirely agree, what America does not need now is an inspirational leader but a tough, competent one who gets things done, which Obama did not always do, however good his speechmaking. For example, JFK was succeeded by LBJ and Nixon, neither anything like as inspiring but both got things done, Hillary or Trump would certainly be closer to the latter than Obama's more JFK like persona. Equally Reagan was succeeded by the dull Bush Snr, who proved to be highly effective in foreign policy particularly
IMO the problem is that neither Trump or Clinton seem to: a) have any idea of what needs doing. b) the strength to do it even if they had.
America is spending too long saying 'we're great', whilst China and others see little more than weakness. The US needs to show it has great vision, and the power to do it.
And that does not mean another war.
Trump has threatened China with tariffs and will substantially increase the US military, Hillary is more pragmatic but probably one of the most experienced foreign policy candidates ever to have run for president and is certainly more of a hawk than Obama but with the diplomatic skills she gained as Secretary of State. Obama showed great vision, in foreign policy at least little action other than withdrawing ground troops from Iraq he has not achieved a great deal of what he set out to, JFK too produced the Bay of Pigs even if he avoided the Cuban Missile Crisis.
They're perfect examples of what I'm talking about. Increasing the military: yawn (they're already massively the largest). Tariffs: yawn.
Neither show America to be a world leader, even in the unlikely event that their actions reflect their words. Neither inspire.
Neither will make the world pause and say: "Wow!"
Kennedy and LBJ got man onto the moon, showing that the US could achieve the (near) impossible. Reagan defeated Russia and ended the Cold War without actually fighting.
It was actually Nixon's presidency which saw a man on the moon. Reagan did the talking but the Cold War ended under Bush Snr
And those are the legacies of two Presidents.
JFK put a man on the Moon, Obama put a man in the girls' bathroom.
Although it was actually Nixon who saw it through to completion and Obamacare and gay marriage, whatever you may think of them, were more significant domestic policies than JFK managed to get through, albeit allowing for his short period in office
Apart from setting the vision, Johnson deserves the executive credit for both the moon missions and the domestic reform.
There will be no general election until 2020 but more voters want hard Brexit than continuity Remain, so I see James led UKIP as more of a threat to May than Farron led LDs or the moderates in Labour who are about to suffer another heavy defeat to Corbyn
I really don't think so.
Diane James is no Nigel Farage. UKIP is a declining force, they have achieved what they set out for, and the general public don't care enough about the various gradations of Brexit to militate one way or another.
They'll be the party of the c10pc discontented, who won't vote for the big parties on principle.
May's nigh-impossible task is to keep her right and left onside enough until she can get the bones of a Brexit deal in place.
But the most potent attacks, because the most pertinent and searching, will be from continuity Remainers.
I think that is the great imponderable in modern British politics. Clearly, the Labour Party is dying. I imagine scoring between 10-20% in general elections. But what will replace them? I'd guess some sort of socially conservative nationalists. Corbyn's brownshirts after 2020? Horrible thought.
But we have had polls this week giving Labour 34% and 31% - a bit higher than the 29.7% polled under Gordon Brown in 2010.
Other polls this month have had Labour in the twenties
Even ICM showed some recovery in the Labour vote.
Their latest has Labour on 28%, which would be the lowest score for the party since 1983 if repeated at a general election. Goodnight https://www.icmunlimited.com/polls/
I don't entirely agree, what America does not need now is an inspirational leader but a tough, competent one who gets things done, which Obama did not always do, however good his speechmaking. For example, JFK was succeeded by LBJ and Nixon, neither anything like as inspiring but both got things done, Hillary or Trump would certainly be closer to the latter than Obama's more JFK like persona. Equally Reagan was succeeded by the dull Bush Snr, who proved to be highly effective in foreign policy particularly
IMO the problem is that neither Trump or Clinton seem to: a) have any idea of what needs doing. b) the strength to do it even if they had.
America is spending too long saying 'we're great', whilst China and others see little more than weakness. The US needs to show it has great vision, and the power to do it.
And that does not mean another war.
Trump has threatened China with tariffs and will substantially increase the US military, Hillary is more pragmatic but probably one of the most experienced foreign policy candidates ever to have run for president and is certainly more of a hawk than Obama but with the diplomatic skill
They're perfect examples of what I'm talking about. Increasing the military: yawn (they're already massively the largest). Tariffs: yawn.
Neither show America to be a world leader, even in the unlikely event that their actions reflect their words. Neither inspire.
Neither will make the world pause and say: "Wow!"
Kennedy and LBJ got man onto the moon, showing that the US could achieve the (near) impossible. Reagan defeated Russia and ended the Cold War without actually fighting.
It was actually Nixon's presidency which saw a man on the moon. Reagan did the talking but the Cold War ended under Bush Snr
And those are the legacies of two Presidents.
JFK put a man on the Moon, Obama put a man in the girls' bathroom.
Although it was actually Nixon who saw it through to completion and Obamacare and gay marriage, whatever you may think of them, were more significant domestic policies than JFK managed to get through, albeit allowing for his short period in office
Apart from setting the vision, Johnson deserves the executive credit for both the moon missions and the domestic reform.
Yes, he did much of the delivery of what JFK's oratory promised
There will be no general election until 2020 but more voters want hard Brexit than continuity Remain, so I see James led UKIP as more of a threat to May than Farron led LDs or the moderates in Labour who are about to suffer another heavy defeat to Corbyn
I really don't think so.
Diane James is no Nigel Farage. UKIP is a declining force, they have achieved what they set out for, and the general public don't care enough about the various gradations of Brexit to militate one way or another.
They'll be the party of the c10pc discontented, who won't vote for the big parties on principle.
May's nigh-impossible task is to keep her right and left onside enough until she can get the bones of a Brexit deal in place.
But the most potent attacks, because the most pertinent and searching, will be from continuity Remainers.
I think that is the great imponderable in modern British politics. Clearly, the Labour Party is dying. I imagine scoring between 10-20% in general elections. But what will replace them? I'd guess some sort of socially conservative nationalists. Corbyn's brownshirts after 2020? Horrible thought.
But we have had polls this week giving Labour 34% and 31% - a bit higher than the 29.7% polled under Gordon Brown in 2010.
With the lack of an alternative anti-government party, much of that support will be soft (also true for the Tories to an extent but the forced-choice question saves the Blue's day there).
Maybe ,David, but I would have thought that after Labour's pretty dire summer they must be quite relieved - particularly in the context of May's honeymoon - to see their support more or less unchanged from May 2015.
Perhaps, but Miliband was about eight points ahead on average at this stage of the last parliament. Also, the local government by-elections seem to show that Labour's gaining in the wrong places, so piling even bigger majorities in Hackney this week while losing more marginal seats.
Compared with the last Parliament that is correct , but the context is very different. Had there not been a change of PM the two main parties might well be level pegging now. Also Miliband did not face the same internal divisions. As it is, Labour is doing no worse than Kinnock was doing at the same stage of the 1987 Parliament - ie October 1988 - and rather better than IDS was doing in October 2002.
There will be no general election until 2020 but more voters want hard Brexit than continuity Remain, so I see James led UKIP as more of a threat to May than Farron led LDs or the moderates in Labour who are about to suffer another heavy defeat to Corbyn
I really don't think so.
Diane James is no Nigel Farage. UKIP is a declining force, they have achieved what they set out for, and the general public don't care enough about the various gradations of Brexit to militate one way or another.
They'll be the party of the c10pc discontented, who won't vote for the big parties on principle.
May's nigh-impossible task is to keep her right and left onside enough until she can get the bones of a Brexit deal in place.
But the most potent attacks, because the most pertinent and searching, will be from continuity Remainers.
I think that is the great imponderable in modern British politics. Clearly, the Labour Party is dying. I imagine scoring between 10-20% in general elections. But what will replace them? I'd guess some sort of socially conservative nationalists. Corbyn's brownshirts after 2020? Horrible thought.
But we have had polls this week giving Labour 34% and 31% - a bit higher than the 29.7% polled under Gordon Brown in 2010.
Other polls this month have had Labour in the twenties
Even ICM showed some recovery in the Labour vote.
Their latest has Labour on 28%, which would be the lowest score for the party since 1983 if repeated at a general election. Goodnight https://www.icmunlimited.com/polls/
Labour actually polled 28.3% in 1983 on a GB basis - which is what ICM measures!
There will be no general election until 2020 but more voters want hard Brexit than continuity Remain, so I see James led UKIP as more of a threat to May than Farron led LDs or the moderates in Labour who are about to suffer another heavy defeat to Corbyn
I really don't think so.
Diane James is no Nigel Farage. UKIP is a declining force, they have achieved what they set out for, and the general public don't care enough about the various gradations of Brexit to militate one way or another.
They'll be the party of the c10pc discontented, who won't vote for the big parties on principle.
May's nigh-impossible task is to keep her right and left onside enough until she can get the bones of a Brexit deal in place.
But the most potent attacks, because the most pertinent and searching, will be from continuity Remainers.
I think that is the great imponderable in modern British politics. Clearly, the Labour Party is dying. I imagine scoring between 10-20% in general elections. But what will replace them? I'd guess some sort of socially conservative nationalists. Corbyn's brownshirts after 2020? Horrible thought.
But we have had polls this week giving Labour 34% and 31% - a bit higher than the 29.7% polled under Gordon Brown in 2010.
With the lack of an alternative anti-government party, much of that support will be soft (also true for the Tories to an extent but the forced-choice question saves the Blue's day there).
Maybe ,David, but I would have thought that after Labour's pretty dire summer they must be quite relieved - particularly in the context of May's honeymoon - to see their support more or less unchanged from May 2015.
Perhaps, but Miliband was about eight points ahead on average at this stage of the last parliament. Also, the local government by-elections seem to show that Labour's gaining in the wrong places, so piling even bigger majorities in Hackney this week while losing more marginal seats.
Compared with the last Parliament that is correct , but the context is very different. Had there not been a change of PM the two main parties might well be level pegging now. Also Miliband did not face the same internal divisions. As it is, Labour is doing no worse than Kinnock was doing at the same stage of the 1987 Parliament - ie October 1988 - and rather better than IDS was doing in October 2002.
The Tories got rid of IDS the following year, Labour is about to comfortably re-elect Corbyn
There will be no general election until 2020 but more voters want hard Brexit than continuity Remain, so I see James led UKIP as more of a threat to May than Farron led LDs or the moderates in Labour who are about to suffer another heavy defeat to Corbyn
I really don't think so.
Diane James is no Nigel Farage. UKIP is a declining force, they have achieved what they set out for, and the general public don't care enough about the various gradations of Brexit to militate one way or another.
They'll be the party of the c10pc discontented, who won't vote for the big parties on principle.
May's nigh-impossible task is to keep her right and left onside enough until she can get the bones of a Brexit deal in place.
But the most potent attacks, because the most pertinent and searching, will be from continuity Remainers.
I think that is the great imponderable in modern British politics. Clearly, the Labour Party is dying. I imagine scoring between 10-20% in general elections. But what will replace them? I'd guess some sort of socially conservative nationalists. Corbyn's brownshirts after 2020? Horrible thought.
But we have had polls this week giving Labour 34% and 31% - a bit higher than the 29.7% polled under Gordon Brown in 2010.
Other polls this month have had Labour in the twenties
Even ICM showed some recovery in the Labour vote.
Their latest has Labour on 28%, which would be the lowest score for the party since 1983 if repeated at a general election. Goodnight https://www.icmunlimited.com/polls/
Labour actually polled 28.3% in 1983 on a GB basis - which is what ICM measures!
On that basis then, Corbyn is now doing even worse than Foot according to ICM. Goodnight!
There will be no general election until 2020 but more voters want hard Brexit than continuity Remain, so I see James led UKIP as more of a threat to May than Farron led LDs or the moderates in Labour who are about to suffer another heavy defeat to Corbyn
I really don't think so.
Diane James is no Nigel Farage. UKIP is a declining force, they have achieved what they set out for, and the general public don't care enough about the various gradations of Brexit to militate one way or another.
They'll be the party of the c10pc discontented, who won't vote for the big parties on principle.
May's nigh-impossible task is to keep her right and left onside enough until she can get the bones of a Brexit deal in place.
But the most potent attacks, because the most pertinent and searching, will be from continuity Remainers.
I think that is the great imponderable in modern British politics. Clearly, the Labour Party is dying. I imagine scoring between 10-20% in general elections. But what will replace them? I'd guess some sort of socially conservative nationalists. Corbyn's brownshirts after 2020? Horrible thought.
But we have had polls this week giving Labour 34% and 31% - a bit higher than the 29.7% polled under Gordon Brown in 2010.
Other polls this month have had Labour in the twenties
Even ICM showed some recovery in the Labour vote.
Their latest has Labour on 28%, which would be the lowest score for the party since 1983 if repeated at a general election. Goodnight https://www.icmunlimited.com/polls/
Labour actually polled 28.3% in 1983 on a GB basis - which is what ICM measures!
On that basis then, Corbyn is now doing even worse than Foot according to ICM. Goodnight!
I appreciate that though national electoral support is much more fragmented than back in 1983!
There will be no general election until 2020 but more voters want hard Brexit than continuity Remain, so I see James led UKIP as more of a threat to May than Farron led LDs or the moderates in Labour who are about to suffer another heavy defeat to Corbyn
I really don't think so.
Diane James is no Nigel Farage. UKIP is a declining force, they have achieved what they set out for, and the general public don't care enough about the various gradations of Brexit to militate one way or another.
They'll be the party of the c10pc discontented, who won't vote for the big parties on principle.
May's nigh-impossible task is to keep her right and left onside enough until she can get the bones of a Brexit deal in place.
But the most potent attacks, because the most pertinent and searching, will be from continuity Remainers.
But we have had polls this week giving Labour 34% and 31% - a bit higher than the 29.7% polled under Gordon Brown in 2010.
With the lack of an alternative anti-government party, much of that support will be soft (also true for the Tories to an extent but the forced-choice question saves the Blue's day there).
Maybe ,David, but I would have thought that after Labour's pretty dire summer they must be quite relieved - particularly in the context of May's honeymoon - to see their support more or less unchanged from May 2015.
Perhaps, but Miliband was about eight points ahead on average at this stage of the last parliament. Also, the local government by-elections seem to show that Labour's gaining in the wrong places, so piling even bigger majorities in Hackney this week while losing more marginal seats.
Compared with the last Parliament that is correct , but the context is very different. Had there not been a change of PM the two main parties might well be level pegging now. Also Miliband did not face the same internal divisions. As it is, Labour is doing no worse than Kinnock was doing at the same stage of the 1987 Parliament - ie October 1988 - and rather better than IDS was doing in October 2002.
The Tories got rid of IDS the following year, Labour is about to comfortably re-elect Corbyn
Labour may well have got rid of Corbyn by 2018 - over 18 months before the sceduled 2020 election.
I don't entirely agree, what America does not need now is an inspirational leader but a tough, competent one who gets things done, which Obama did not always do, however good his speechmaking. For example, JFK was succeeded by LBJ and Nixon, neither anything like as inspiring but both got things done, Hillary or Trump would certainly be closer to the latter than Obama's more JFK like persona. Equally Reagan was succeeded by the dull Bush Snr, who proved to be highly effective in foreign policy particularly
IMO the problem is that neither Trump or Clinton seem to: a) have any idea of what needs doing. b) the strength to do it even if they had.
America is spending too long saying 'we're great', whilst China and others see little more than weakness. The US needs to show it has great vision, and the power to do it.
And that does not mean another war.
Trump has threatened China with tariffs and will substantially increase the US military, Hillary is more pragmatic but probably one of the most experienced foreign policy candidates ever to have run for president and is certainly more of a hawk than Obama but with the diplomatic skills she gained as Secretary of State. Obama showed great vision, in foreign policy at least little action other than withdrawing ground troops from Iraq he has not achieved a great deal of what he set out to, JFK too produced the Bay of Pigs even if he avoided the Cuban Missile Crisis.
They're perfect examples of what I'm talking about. Increasing the military: yawn (they're already massively the largest). Tariffs: yawn.
Neither show America to be a world leader, even in the unlikely event that their actions reflect their words. Neither inspire.
Neither will make the world pause and say: "Wow!"
Kennedy and LBJ got man onto the moon, showing that the US could achieve the (near) impossible. Reagan defeated Russia and ended the Cold War without actually fighting.
It was actually Nixon's presidency which saw a man on the moon. Reagan did the talking but the Cold War ended under Bush Snr
A very late reply to this: you're right, but only just. Nixon had only been president for six or so months when the Moon landings happened, so he cannot receive much credit for what had been a nine-year effort. In addition, Nixon's attitude to space during the rest of his term was lacklustre, to say the least.
And the same goes for Reagan and Bush: Reagan's presidency ended in January 1989, and the Berlin wall fell in November that year. Reagan's administration did all the footwork (though you have a slightly better point, as Bush Snr had been Reagan's VP and therefore had been involved, especially with his prior experience at the CIA).
"I think that is the great imponderable in modern British politics. Clearly, the Labour Party is dying. I imagine scoring between 10-20% in general elections. But what will replace them? I'd guess some sort of socially conservative nationalists. Corbyn's brownshirts after 2020? Horrible thought."
The imminent demise of the Labour Party is something that has always being predicted since it started. It's almost a sub genre. If you want to get into it The Forward March of Labour Halted? by Eric Hobsbawm from 1978 is a good start. This poll does point out that Corbyn is popular amongst the young, which is an interesting observation. When you look at how effectively the Corbyn team is working social media it isn't maybe too surprising. Labour doesn't look anywhere near election winning form at the moment but it doesn't look like it is fading away either.
I find this poll interesting as it seems to reflect my personal world quite well. As a middle aged Blairite who thought politics had been more or less settled I discover I have Corbynite kids and UKIPy parents. I don't really understand either. The kids seem better informed.
I am still hoping that at some stage everything will return to normal.
There will be no general election until 2020 but more voters want hard Brexit than continuity Remain, so I see James led UKIP as more of a threat to May than Farron led LDs or the moderates in Labour who are about to suffer another heavy defeat to Corbyn
I really don't think so.
Diane James is no Nigel Farage. UKIP is a declining force, they have achieved what they set out for, and the general public don't care enough about the various gradations of Brexit to militate one way or another.
They'll be the party of the c10pc discontented, who won't vote for the big parties on principle.
May's nigh-impossible task is to keep her right and left onside enough until she can get the bones of a Brexit deal in place.
But the most potent attacks, because the most pertinent and searching, will be from continuity Remainers.
I think that is the great imponderable in modern British politics. Clearly, the Labour Party is dying. I imagine scoring between 10-20% in general elections. But what will replace them? I'd guess some sort of socially conservative nationalists. Corbyn's brownshirts after 2020? Horrible thought.
But we have had polls this week giving Labour 34% and 31% - a bit higher than the 29.7% polled under Gordon Brown in 2010.
Other polls this month have had Labour in the twenties
Even ICM showed some recovery in the Labour vote.
Their latest has Labour on 28%, which would be the lowest score for the party since 1983 if repeated at a general election. Goodnight https://www.icmunlimited.com/polls/
Labour actually polled 28.3% in 1983 on a GB basis - which is what ICM measures!
On that basis then, Corbyn is now doing even worse than Foot according to ICM. Goodnight!
I appreciate that though national electoral support is much more fragmented than back in 1983!
There will be no general election until 2020 but more voters want hard Brexit than continuity Remain, so I see James led UKIP as more of a threat to May than Farron led LDs or the moderates in Labour who are about to suffer another heavy defeat to Corbyn
I really don't think so.
Diane James is no Nigel Farage. UKIP is a declining force, they have achieved what they set out for, and the general public don't care enough about the various gradations of Brexit to militate one way or another.
They'll be the party of the c10pc discontented, who won't vote for the big parties on principle.
May's nigh-impossible task is to keep her right and left onside enough until she can get the bones of a Brexit deal in place.
But the most potent attacks, because the most pertinent and searching, will be from continuity Remainers.
But we have had polls this week giving Labour 34% and 31% - a bit higher than the 29.7% polled under Gordon Brown in 2010.
With the lack of an alternative anti-government party, much of that support will be soft (also true for the Tories to an extent but the forced-choice question saves the Blue's day there).
Maybe ,David, but I would have thought that after Labour's pretty dire summer they must be quite relieved - particularly in the context of May's honeymoon - to see their support more or less unchanged from May 2015.
Perhaps, but Miliband was about eight points ahead on average at this stage of the last parliament. Also, the local government by-elections seem to show that Labour's gaining in the wrong places, so piling even bigger majorities in Hackney this week while losing more marginal seats.
Compared with the last Parliament that is correct , but the context is very different. Had there not been a change of PM the two main parties might well be level pegging now. Also Miliband did not face the same internal divisions. As it is, Labour is doing no worse than Kinnock was doing at the same stage of the 1987 Parliament - ie October 1988 - and rather better than IDS was doing in October 2002.
The Tories got rid of IDS the following year, Labour is about to comfortably re-elect Corbyn
Labour may well have got rid of Corbyn by 2018 - over 18 months before the sceduled 2020 election.
With Corbyn about to be re-elected with at least 60% of members' votes, that does not look too likely
I don't entirely agree, what America does not need now is an inspirational leader but a tough, competent one who gets things done, which Obama did not always do, however good his speechmaking. For example, JFK was succeeded by LBJ and Nixon, neither anything like as inspiring but both got things done, Hillary or Trump would certainly be closer to the latter than Obama's more JFK like persona. Equally Reagan was succeeded by the dull Bush Snr, who proved to be highly effective in foreign policy particularly
IMO the problem is that neither Trump or Clinton seem to: a) have any idea of what needs doing. b) the strength to do it even if they had.
America is spending too long saying 'we're great', whilst China and others see little more than weakness. The US needs to show it has great vision, and the power to do it.
And that does not mean another war.
Trump has threatened China with tariffs and will substantially increase the US military, Hillary is more pragmatic but probably one of the most experienced foreign policy candidates ever to have run for president and is certainly more of a hawk than Obama but with the diplomatic skills she gained as Secretary of State. Obama showed great vision, in foreign policy at least little
They're perfect examples of what I'm talking about. Increasing the military: yawn (they're already massively the largest). Tariffs: yawn.
Neither show America to be a world leader, even in the unlikely event that their actions reflect their words. Neither inspire.
Neither will make the world pause and say: "Wow!"
Kennedy and LBJ got man onto the moon, showing that the US could achieve the (near) impossible. Reagan defeated Russia and ended the Cold War without actually fighting.
It was actually Nixon's presiden
A very late reply to this: you're right, but only just. Nixon had only been president for six or so months when the Moon landings happened, so he cannot receive much credit for what had been a nine-year effort. In addition, Nixon's attitude to space during the rest of his term was lacklustre, to say the least.
And the same goes for Reagan and Bush: Reagan's presidency ended in January 1989, and the Berlin wall fell in November that year. Reagan's administration did all the footwork (though you have a slightly better point, as Bush Snr had been Reagan's VP and therefore had been involved, especially with his prior experience at the CIA).
True, though LBJ's presidency ecompassed much of the preliminary work too. As you suggest Bush Snr being Reagan's VP helped him successfully manage to fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the USSR
There will be no general election until 2020 but more voters want hard Brexit than continuity Remain, so I see James led UKIP as more of a threat to May than Farron led LDs or the moderates in Labour who are about to suffer another heavy defeat to Corbyn
I really don't think so.
Diane James is no Nigel Farage. UKIP is a declining force, they have achieved what they set out for, and the general public don't care enough about the various gradations of Brexit to militate one way or another.
They'll be the party of the c10pc discontented, who won't vote for the big parties on principle.
May's nigh-impossible task is to keep her right and left onside enough until she can get the bones of a Brexit deal in place.
But the most potent attacks, because the most pertinent and searching, will be from continuity Remainers.
I think that is the great imponderable in modern British politics. Clearly, the Labour Party is dying. I imagine scoring between 10-20% in general elections. But what will replace them? I'd guess some sort of socially conservative nationalists. Corbyn's brownshirts after 2020? Horrible thought.
But we have had polls this week giving Labour 34% and 31% - a bit higher than the 29.7% polled under Gordon Brown in 2010.
Other polls this month have had Labour in the twenties
Even ICM showed some recovery in the Labour vote.
Their latest has Labour on 28%, which would be the lowest score for the party since 1983 if repeated at a general election. Goodnight https://www.icmunlimited.com/polls/
Labour actually polled 28.3% in 1983 on a GB basis - which is what ICM measures!
On that basis then, Corbyn is now doing even worse than Foot according to ICM. Goodnight!
I appreciate that though national electoral support is much more fragmented than back in 1983!
There will be no general election until 2020 but more voters want hard Brexit than continuity Remain, so I see James led UKIP as more of a threat to May than Farron led LDs or the moderates in Labour who are about to suffer another heavy defeat to Corbyn
I really don't think so.
Diane James is no Nigel Farage. UKIP is a declining force, they have achieved what they set out for, and the general public don't care enough about the various gradations of Brexit to militate one way or another.
They'll be the party of the c10pc discontented, who won't vote for the big parties on principle.
May's nigh-impossible task is to keep her right and left onside enough until she can get the bones of a Brexit deal in place.
But the most potent attacks, because the most pertinent and searching, will be from continuity Remainers.
But we have had polls this week giving Labour 34% and 31% - a bit higher than the 29.7% polled under Gordon Brown in 2010.
With the lack of an alternative anti-government party, much of that support will be soft (also true for the Tories to an extent but the forced-choice question saves the Blue's day there).
Maybe ,David, but I would have thought that after Labour's pretty dire summer they must be quite relieved - particularly in the context of May's honeymoon - to see their support more or less unchanged from May 2015.
The Tories got rid of IDS the following year, Labour is about to comfortably re-elect Corbyn
Labour may well have got rid of Corbyn by 2018 - over 18 months before the sceduled 2020 election.
With Corbyn about to be re-elected with at least 60% of members' votes, that does not look too likely
That is a non sequitur. By mid 2018 poor performance in the polls and elections is likely to be weighing much more heavily on party members given the proximity of the General Election. Also Corbyn will have had 3 years to prove himself.
Comments
Norfolk 15 councillors elected in 2013 down to 13 now likely to be down to 5 next May
Essex 9 councillors elected in 2013 down to 6 today likely to be down to 3 next May
I think May's honeymoon is already wearing off.
and although she faces no obvious threat from a declining UKIP and a dysfunctional Labour Party, the voices of criticism from continuity Remain will not die down.
Indeed, as she now owns Brexit, she will be the focal point for continuity Remain attack.
In the absence of an obvious political vehicle, watch the hopes of Remainers fall alternately on moderate Labour groups, exiled Cameroonians, and the Lib Dems. The first to present a sane and compelling agenda could get quite a head of steam up.
May is vulnerable from every direction.
Given how useless Cameron was becoming at getting stuff through in his second term, what hope May with a party more easily divided?
She may seek a formal agreement with the DUP. I cannot see her calling an election because without an irrevocable Brexit policy it would tear the Tories apart.
http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/bulletins/nationallifetablesunitedkingdom/2015-09-23
So that's everything settled until Election 2035 then...
Says it all!
For the moment, I am holding on to my stake in him, not worth laying him or cashing out now at those odds. Still possible in theory that if the debate terns into such a slanging off section that there might be sufficient calls to include him in second or third but.....he will be outside the debate venue and, live streamed, his answers to the questions, he might even get a million watches, but.....
I think he has still introduced a lot of people to the word libertarian and to some extent the ideology of classical liberalism, it was always going to be a long shot, may be 2020???
Diane James is no Nigel Farage.
UKIP is a declining force, they have achieved what they set out for, and the general public don't care enough about the various gradations of Brexit to militate one way or another.
They'll be the party of the c10pc discontented, who won't vote for the big parties on principle.
May's nigh-impossible task is to keep her right and left onside enough until she can get the bones of a Brexit deal in place.
But the most potent attacks, because the most pertinent and searching, will be from continuity Remainers.
Still, apart from a bit of nitpicking no objection from you to the idea that Tyson is a massive cockwomble eh? Pretty much incontrovertible I'd have thought.
As to the Leave voters, they've got what they wanted, May is pledged to deliver it. I also think that, outside the extraordinary circumstances of the referendum, people will revert to voting on the classically salient issues, NHS etc.
Continuity Remainers are as difficult to generalise about as Brexiteers in that they range from full on Euro-foamers to those who have accepted the vote but expect the least economically harmful divorce.
However they do tend to come from the most vocal, media-literate, and articulate demographic - and are scrutinising May closely.
JFK put a man on the Moon, Obama put a man in the girls' bathroom.
Continuity Remainers may be vocal amongst the elite but they are a much smaller proportion of the general population
at least they didn't fiddle the score like trump would have
https://www.icmunlimited.com/polls/
In fact 'Not Sure' beats Corbyn in every single age group.....Even in Scotland May is well ahead of Corbyn (42:18)....
And the same goes for Reagan and Bush: Reagan's presidency ended in January 1989, and the Berlin wall fell in November that year. Reagan's administration did all the footwork (though you have a slightly better point, as Bush Snr had been Reagan's VP and therefore had been involved, especially with his prior experience at the CIA).
"I think that is the great imponderable in modern British politics. Clearly, the Labour Party is dying. I imagine scoring between 10-20% in general elections. But what will replace them? I'd guess some sort of socially conservative nationalists. Corbyn's brownshirts after 2020? Horrible thought."
The imminent demise of the Labour Party is something that has always being predicted since it started. It's almost a sub genre. If you want to get into it The Forward March of Labour Halted? by Eric Hobsbawm from 1978 is a good start. This poll does point out that Corbyn is popular amongst the young, which is an interesting observation. When you look at how effectively the Corbyn team is working social media it isn't maybe too surprising. Labour doesn't look anywhere near election winning form at the moment but it doesn't look like it is fading away either.
I find this poll interesting as it seems to reflect my personal world quite well. As a middle aged Blairite who thought politics had been more or less settled I discover I have Corbynite kids and UKIPy parents. I don't really understand either. The kids seem better informed.
I am still hoping that at some stage everything will return to normal.