I now that others may have posted this but the polls plus forecast of 538 has now Trump just 0.1% less chance than his all time high of 40.2 during the conventions.
It going towards the 272-266 for Hillary that my average daily tacker poll now indicates.
Literally Trump needs just one of N.H, Michigan, Colorado, Pennsylvania, N.Mexico, and Wisconsin and he wins.
But we have no recent polls from there.
Sahil Kapur was claiming on Twitter a bit earlier that Trump still had no hope re EC. That sounded like straw clutching to me. He's normally pretty straight too.
Well now he has, he is leading in the most unlikely of swing states, Colorado and by 4%.
So now the tally is 263-275 for Trump.
Now it's all about keeping it and maybe creating a buffer just in case in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and N.H, and not forget to play defence in N.Carolina.
I now that others may have posted this but the polls plus forecast of 538 has now Trump just 0.1% less chance than his all time high of 40.2 during the conventions.
It going towards the 272-266 for Hillary that my average daily tacker poll now indicates.
Literally Trump needs just one of N.H, Michigan, Colorado, Pennsylvania, N.Mexico, and Wisconsin and he wins.
But we have no recent polls from there.
Sahil Kapur was claiming on Twitter a bit earlier that Trump still had no hope re EC. That sounded like straw clutching to me. He's normally pretty straight too.
Well now he has, he is leading in the most unlikely of swing states, Colorado and by 4%.
So now the tally is 263-275 for Trump.
Now it's all about keeping it and maybe creating a buffer just in case in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and N.H, and not forget to play defence in N.Carolina.
I think Trump just has to keep going on his current course, and simply wait for Clinton to trip* up.
I get a feeling this is going to be the new Independent "it'll never snow" article, or the infamous "there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority" article... heh
I'm not a doctor but I struggle to believe Hillary has got (had?) pneumonia.
I've seen people with pneumonia a few times in my life and the patient will be very, very unwell for several days and generally ill for weeks afterwards.
Mother had it in June 2003 and September 2003 she was still trying to get better...
The way she scooted up those airplane steps, waving at the camera's as she did so, she did NOT look like someone getting over a serious, potentially life-threatening lung infection....
The CT scan describes a lobar pneumonia.
Sounds pretty likely to me, whatever else is going on. Indeed mobilising too soon would make anyone susceptible to fainting.
Hillary 38 Trump 35 Johnson 10 Stein 4 Refused to answer/Undecided 13
Emerson, National
Trump 43 Hillary 41 Johnson 9 Stein 2
Colorado
Trump 42 Hillary 38 Johnson 13 Stein 2
Georgia
Trump 45 Hillary 39 Johnson 9 Stein 3
Missouri
Trump 47 Hillary 34 Johnson 7 Stein 6
Arkansas
Trump 57 Hillary 29 Johnson 5 Stein 3
Trump passes 270.
Consistent with a 1 1/2% swing to Trump which puts Wisconsin and New Hampshire in Play. However the levels of uncertainty still means Clinton favourite.
True, Hillary is still the favourate because trust on Trump is small and his enemies numerous, but he if the election were today Trump would win, he just has to keep his winning position for another 8 weeks.
Today is the first day outside of the conventions were Trump is leading in the Electoral College, Trump has to make sure it isn't the last.
I'm not a doctor but I struggle to believe Hillary has got (had?) pneumonia.
I've seen people with pneumonia a few times in my life and the patient will be very, very unwell for several days and generally ill for weeks afterwards.
Mother had it in June 2003 and September 2003 she was still trying to get better...
The way she scooted up those airplane steps, waving at the camera's as she did so, she did NOT look like someone getting over a serious, potentially life-threatening lung infection....
The CT scan describes a lobar pneumonia.
Sounds pretty likely to me, whatever else is going on. Indeed mobilising too soon would make anyone susceptible to fainting.
Except if that was the truth, they would have been able to say that immediately.
I'm not a doctor but I struggle to believe Hillary has got (had?) pneumonia.
I've seen people with pneumonia a few times in my life and the patient will be very, very unwell for several days and generally ill for weeks afterwards.
Mother had it in June 2003 and September 2003 she was still trying to get better...
The way she scooted up those airplane steps, waving at the camera's as she did so, she did NOT look like someone getting over a serious, potentially life-threatening lung infection....
So much for not being infectious either - Gateway Pundit reporting 6 in her office had pneumonia recently.
I was at secondary school with girl who got it - she was off for a few weeks and only came back part time for another three. She was very fit horse rider. Hillary's diagnosis just rings totally hollow for me. Ordinary flu is horrible and knocks a normal person sideways for a week solid.
Well pneumonia isn't usually infectious. Would be strange to say the least for pneumonia to be spreading around through several people. That sounds more like Influenza (which of course can develop into pneumonia in people with weakened immune systems, etc.)
I now that others may have posted this but the polls plus forecast of 538 has now Trump just 0.1% less chance than his all time high of 40.2 during the conventions.
It going towards the 272-266 for Hillary that my average daily tacker poll now indicates.
Literally Trump needs just one of N.H, Michigan, Colorado, Pennsylvania, N.Mexico, and Wisconsin and he wins.
But we have no recent polls from there.
Sahil Kapur was claiming on Twitter a bit earlier that Trump still had no hope re EC. That sounded like straw clutching to me. He's normally pretty straight too.
Well now he has, he is leading in the most unlikely of swing states, Colorado and by 4%.
So now the tally is 263-275 for Trump.
Now it's all about keeping it and maybe creating a buffer just in case in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and N.H, and not forget to play defence in N.Carolina.
I think Trump just has to keep going on his current course, and simply wait for Clinton to trip* up.
*Literally.
Think it was Frank Lundz last night who said it was becoming *less acceptable* to vote Hillary - not that Trump was more so.
That felt about right. Also saw a serious Twitspat between The Fix and Ed of NReview - over reporting of RNC non hack. It's getting much more tribal as it gets close.
I'm not a doctor but I struggle to believe Hillary has got (had?) pneumonia.
I've seen people with pneumonia a few times in my life and the patient will be very, very unwell for several days and generally ill for weeks afterwards.
Mother had it in June 2003 and September 2003 she was still trying to get better...
The way she scooted up those airplane steps, waving at the camera's as she did so, she did NOT look like someone getting over a serious, potentially life-threatening lung infection....
The CT scan describes a lobar pneumonia.
Sounds pretty likely to me, whatever else is going on. Indeed mobilising too soon would make anyone susceptible to fainting.
If that worked we would have perpetual Labour governments.
Except voters tend to be more likely to vote Tory the older they get
Partly that, but not the only factor in play. Life expectancy for Tory voters is longer, so the non-Tories tend to die off first. And people's political outlook is shaped during late teenage and early adulthood, which for the current elderly was at a time when the two-party system was at its peak.
And reality moves to the left. Imagine you were a 1960s and 70s radical marching for abortion rights, gay rights, equal pay for women and an end to racial discrimination. All those battles have been won, so what would have stopped you voting Conservative in 2015 ?
I'm not a doctor but I struggle to believe Hillary has got (had?) pneumonia.
I've seen people with pneumonia a few times in my life and the patient will be very, very unwell for several days and generally ill for weeks afterwards.
Mother had it in June 2003 and September 2003 she was still trying to get better...
The way she scooted up those airplane steps, waving at the camera's as she did so, she did NOT look like someone getting over a serious, potentially life-threatening lung infection....
The CT scan describes a lobar pneumonia.
Sounds pretty likely to me, whatever else is going on. Indeed mobilising too soon would make anyone susceptible to fainting.
And the blue lens glasses?
I suspect her eyes were a bit sore and red so she wore them as cover.
If she had photosensitive epilepsy as some are claiming then having flashguns going off in her face would set it off, and with all those photographers taking pictures it would be bleeding obvious.. Tinted glasses do not protect against it, neither do they benefit Parkinsons.
Watch her convention speech. She walks steadily with no festinent gait, she initiates movements easily, turns easily, stops easily, no tremor, no bradykinesia. Full range of facial movement etc etc.
If that worked we would have perpetual Labour governments.
Except voters tend to be more likely to vote Tory the older they get
Partly that, but not the only factor in play. Life expectancy for Tory voters is longer, so the non-Tories tend to die off first. And people's political outlook is shaped during late teenage and early adulthood, which for the current elderly was at a time when the two-party system was at its peak.
And reality moves to the left. Imagine you were a 1960s and 70s radical marching for abortion rights, gay rights, equal pay for women and an end to racial discrimination. All those battles have been won, so what would have stopped you voting Conservative in 2015 ?
It is easy to misread the Sixties and Seventies as left wing times. There was certainly a counter-cultural edge to it, but mostly it was about individual aspiration. People wanted to do things their own way, not be bound by collective societal norms. Similarly Trade Unions in the Seventies mostly struck for more pay so that they could buy more things. Red Robbo was a communist but most of his union just wanted more dosh.
It is not surprising that so many baby-boomers are so right wing, they always prized their own individual aspirations over the collective good of society.
Comments
So now the tally is 263-275 for Trump.
Now it's all about keeping it and maybe creating a buffer just in case in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and N.H, and not forget to play defence in N.Carolina.
I think Trump just has to keep going on his current course, and simply wait for Clinton to trip* up.
*Literally.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/sep/15/brexit-liberalism-post-liberal-age?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
I get a feeling this is going to be the new Independent "it'll never snow" article, or the infamous "there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority" article... heh
Sounds pretty likely to me, whatever else is going on. Indeed mobilising too soon would make anyone susceptible to fainting.
Today is the first day outside of the conventions were Trump is leading in the Electoral College, Trump has to make sure it isn't the last.
Except if that was the truth, they would have been able to say that immediately.
new thread
The crucial states to me now look like
CO, NC, WI, PA, NH
Trump has 5 combinations, and Hillary 3 from that lot now.
That felt about right. Also saw a serious Twitspat between The Fix and Ed of NReview - over reporting of RNC non hack. It's getting much more tribal as it gets close.
If she had photosensitive epilepsy as some are claiming then having flashguns going off in her face would set it off, and with all those photographers taking pictures it would be bleeding obvious.. Tinted glasses do not protect against it, neither do they benefit Parkinsons.
Watch her convention speech. She walks steadily with no festinent gait, she initiates movements easily, turns easily, stops easily, no tremor, no bradykinesia. Full range of facial movement etc etc.
https://youtu.be/pnXiy4D_I8g
No sign of parkinsons at all. Unless of course the Lizards are using a holographic representation as part of their plan for world domination.
Tonfoil sales are outdoing popcorn at the moment!
It is not surprising that so many baby-boomers are so right wing, they always prized their own individual aspirations over the collective good of society.