politicalbetting
Home› General

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Sign In Register

Categories

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First post-grammar school phone poll sees TMay’s ratings sl

SystemSystem Posts: 12,114
edited September 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First post-grammar school phone poll sees TMay’s ratings slip 4% & CON lead down 5%

One of the dangers of all polling analysis is to confuse correlation with causation. It is easy to attribute polling changes to the last big political development or policy change so I’m not saying that Mrs. May’s decision to reverse her party’s policy on selective schooling is the reason for today’s numbers.

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    First? :D
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    What do GBBO thread?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    RobD said:

    First? :D

    Bravo - did you set your alarm clock? :lol:
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    '43% think this year’s election will be rigged; 56% think opinion polls are in some way engineered to favour one candidate or the other'.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/clintons-chances-could-be-killed-by-a-cough-9grf9jgmg



  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/776407391466160128
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Labour have been sounding more united of late.

    Amazing what a mediocre PM and a scent of power can do.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited September 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    '43% think this year’s election will be rigged; 56% think opinion polls are in some way engineered to favour one candidate or the other'.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/clintons-chances-could-be-killed-by-a-cough-9grf9jgmg



    I am not sure incidents like the editing of Bill Clinton interview will help that perception.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    taffys said:

    Labour have been sounding more united of late.

    Amazing what a mediocre PM and a scent of power can do.

    Possibly because Corbyn is on course to win?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited September 2016
    Theresa May's very high initial ratings were largely based on relief that a grown-up was taking charge and that political chaos was going to be avoided. I don't know whether this particular IpsosMORI poll means very much - their results are often volatile - but in general it is inevitable that her ratings will decay as her government makes (or even fails to make) difficult decisions about the fourth runway, Hinkley Point, HS2, the economy in general, and of course Brexit. The botched grammar-school announcement certainly won't have helped.

    Still, she's got a very safe margin over her opponents at the moment. I expect her lead over Corbyn, and the Conservatives' lead over Labour in all its chaos, will settle down in a few months' time at figures which are still very good, if not at quite the initial stellar leads.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    May has not been doing well of late. Nothing terrible in terms of general perception, but some definite missteps.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    But... But... Brexit...

    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/776413529637257216
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    taffys said:

    Labour have been sounding more united of late.

    Amazing what a mediocre PM and a scent of power can do.

    http://order-order.com/2016/09/15/labour-moderates-secretly-investigated-corbynistas/

    "Labour Party moderates carried out an off-the-books investigation into the activities of Jeremy Corbyn supporters, infiltrating their meetings and private Facebook groups with the aim of leaking the findings to the press. Guido has obtained a 19 page document titled “An investigation into far-left infiltration of the Labour Party in Liverpool since September 2015”.

    Written in the Labour Party’s font, containing highly professional, forensic levels of detail, it contains many of the revelations found in this morning’s Times story on Momentum. A Labour HQ source denies it is an official Labour Party document. They say they cannot comment on who wrote it. Another Labour source says it was written by Labour moderates"
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    weejonnie said:

    HYUFD said:

    weejonnie said:

    AllyPally_Rob said:

    A bit of perspective on the presidential race. Trump certainly seems to have some momentum at the moment, but the electoral college is still a roadblock the size of a boulder in terms of his chance of getting to 270.

    Hillary starts with 19 states that have gone Dem EVERY election since 1992. That's 242 electoral votes. She's only 28 away, which means she could lose every swing state and only win Florida, and she'd still be president.

    Trump needs to break that wall, and do what McCain and Romney tried to do but fail, and bring Pennsylvania into play. Clinton has been consistently ahead here (she's up 6 according to RCP). He's very unlikely to flip this state (Bush Snr was the last GOP candidate to do it), and with Virginia and Colorado looking unlikely too he simply doesn't have a path.

    Latest LA Times: Trump +6 - this is the last one before the full effect of the CiC debate is felt (8 - 14 Sep) but includes 3 days before Clinton Collapse.
    The CiC debate was not a proper one on one debate so I doubt had much impact. The first proper head to head debate is on 27th September in New York
    The swing to Trump started before 11th September, but was masked as most polls seem to cover about a week. I do note that 538 is discounting the LA Times by 4, not 6.

    If you look at 538s list of Pennsylvania polls then you won't see ANY that polled after September 8th, so the notional Clinton +3.3 is way out of date.
    On the LA Times tracker Trump was sitting at 43.8% on the 7th. By the 11th he was at 43.6%. that's 4 days of polling after the Commander in Chief forum. He only started rising in the tracker after the Clinton Collapse, after the 11th.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    I am not sure how she has played Hinckley Point. The Strike Price still looks absolutely prohibitive. Hoping that the additional conditions cause one of the major backers to drop out seems a bit crazy. There is every difference in the world between deciding that we don't want to do this and us saying we do but EDF or China saying no thanks.

    In the meantime it is yet another source of uncertainty. The UK is depending very heavily on the sangfroid of the UK shopper.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    Most of that must be reversion to the mean, 45% Con and 6% Ukip could never have been right in the first place. For that matter 34% Lab doesn't smell right either.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I don't believe the LDs are as low as 6%.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    FPT

    Must be an outlier :innocent:
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    AndyJS said:

    I don't believe the LDs are as low as 6%.

    I agree. It is wildly out of line with their local authority by election results which have been pretty good of late. Labour at 34% seems incredibly high too. I would guess 5 off Labour and 4 onto the Lib Dems myself.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    DavidL said:

    I am not sure how she has played Hinckley Point. The Strike Price still looks absolutely prohibitive. Hoping that the additional conditions cause one of the major backers to drop out seems a bit crazy. There is every difference in the world between deciding that we don't want to do this and us saying we do but EDF or China saying no thanks.

    In the meantime it is yet another source of uncertainty. The UK is depending very heavily on the sangfroid of the UK shopper.

    She's played it very poorly, same as with the grammar schools announcement. It feels like neither policy position has been thought through to its logical conclusion. Blaming the cancellation of HPC in the Chinese was obviously going to piss them off, introducing new grammars without any policy for non-selective schools was always going to piss off anyone who was concerned about the kids being "left behind". In both cases she has had no answer to these very basic responses from critics.

    PM rating 5/10 "See me" in red ink.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    PM rating 5/10 "See me" in red ink.

    Absolutely. I think you are being generous.

    Can May learn from these missteps?? If not, this could be over before it started.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    I am not sure how she has played Hinckley Point. The Strike Price still looks absolutely prohibitive. Hoping that the additional conditions cause one of the major backers to drop out seems a bit crazy. There is every difference in the world between deciding that we don't want to do this and us saying we do but EDF or China saying no thanks.

    In the meantime it is yet another source of uncertainty. The UK is depending very heavily on the sangfroid of the UK shopper.

    She's played it very poorly, same as with the grammar schools announcement. It feels like neither policy position has been thought through to its logical conclusion. Blaming the cancellation of HPC in the Chinese was obviously going to piss them off, introducing new grammars without any policy for non-selective schools was always going to piss off anyone who was concerned about the kids being "left behind". In both cases she has had no answer to these very basic responses from critics.

    PM rating 5/10 "See me" in red ink.

    tbf she has been dropped in the deep end, so I hope it gets a bit better as she learns to swim.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    I am not sure how she has played Hinckley Point. The Strike Price still looks absolutely prohibitive. Hoping that the additional conditions cause one of the major backers to drop out seems a bit crazy. There is every difference in the world between deciding that we don't want to do this and us saying we do but EDF or China saying no thanks.

    In the meantime it is yet another source of uncertainty. The UK is depending very heavily on the sangfroid of the UK shopper.

    She's played it very poorly, same as with the grammar schools announcement. It feels like neither policy position has been thought through to its logical conclusion. Blaming the cancellation of HPC in the Chinese was obviously going to piss them off, introducing new grammars without any policy for non-selective schools was always going to piss off anyone who was concerned about the kids being "left behind". In both cases she has had no answer to these very basic responses from critics.

    PM rating 5/10 "See me" in red ink.
    It would have been very easy to say that the energy market has markedly changed and that the Strike Price no longer makes sense when renewables (and gas of course) are increasingly competitive with current rates making the inflationary assumptions inapplicable. No need to blame anyone, things have just moved on. If China or EDF drop out now there will be recriminations which will do each side no favours and the government will again look like it doesn't have a plan or a grip.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    DavidL said:

    AndyJS said:

    I don't believe the LDs are as low as 6%.

    I agree. It is wildly out of line with their local authority by election results which have been pretty good of late. Labour at 34% seems incredibly high too. I would guess 5 off Labour and 4 onto the Lib Dems myself.
    There's a lot fishy about this poll, and the one before it putting the Tories as high as 45%. Looking at the last few polls they're somewhere in the 39-42% area, which is still decent majority territory and better than they've been doing for quite a while (off the top of my head I can't think when they last polled this well).
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,353
    edited September 2016
    Given that the shift is to UKIP, I doubt that grammar schools have much to do with it. As for Hinkley Point, the final decision only came this morning, and I doubt that most people would have begrudged May's reconsidering of the issue.

    No, if the conversations I've had with Leave voters is anything to go by, it is Brexit (or the lack of it) that is driving some (back?) into the arms of UKIP. The average Joe who voted to leave can't understand why May's government isn't getting on with it, and they suspect deliberate foot-dragging.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    RobD said:

    taffys said:

    Labour have been sounding more united of late.

    Amazing what a mediocre PM and a scent of power can do.

    Possibly because Corbyn is on course to win?
    And win in 2020!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    Essexit said:

    DavidL said:

    AndyJS said:

    I don't believe the LDs are as low as 6%.

    I agree. It is wildly out of line with their local authority by election results which have been pretty good of late. Labour at 34% seems incredibly high too. I would guess 5 off Labour and 4 onto the Lib Dems myself.
    There's a lot fishy about this poll, and the one before it putting the Tories as high as 45%. Looking at the last few polls they're somewhere in the 39-42% area, which is still decent majority territory and better than they've been doing for quite a while (off the top of my head I can't think when they last polled this well).
    40 is a lot more believable than 45%, that is for sure.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Carney's madness - planning to go down to 0% in November.

    Andrew Sentance @asentance
    Quick summary of #MPC minutes - economy stronger; inflation is rising. But we'll cut interest rates to zero anyway. http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/minutes/Documents/mpc/pdf/2016/sep.pdf …
    1:44 PM - 15 Sep 2016
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Essexit said:

    Most of that must be reversion to the mean, 45% Con and 6% Ukip could never have been right in the first place. For that matter 34% Lab doesn't smell right either.

    I did suggest at the time that the last Mori poll had both major parties too high. Interesting that for the third consecutive poll Mori has Labour at 34/35% - certainly out of line with other pollsters.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    AndyJS said:

    I don't believe the LDs are as low as 6%.

    The Lib who?
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    '43% think this year’s election will be rigged; 56% think opinion polls are in some way engineered to favour one candidate or the other'.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/clintons-chances-could-be-killed-by-a-cough-9grf9jgmg



    I am not sure incidents like the editing of Bill Clinton interview will help that perception.
    Well Powell saying he was still D**king Bimbos was juicy.

    I think most people don't actually know how polls work and how they have to adjust raw data to get a representative sample - but note that the representative sample is based on historical data and therefore has a tendency to resist change. Thus if the number of registered Republicans reduces in a state then if the pollee isn't up to date, it will upgrade the Republican vote as it expected to find more of them.
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    was reading this (Trump fans will enjoy) http://www.the-tls.co.uk/articles/public/struggle-with-reality/

    but came across the mention of this:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_International_Jew

    it's funny, we covered Henry Ford in history at school, but no mention of this. nor of Fordlandia, neither.

    mind you, by school history, we also not have correctly guessed which of Woodrow Wilson or Jan Smuts was the bigger white supremacist...

  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Jennifer Epstein
    Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders are blitzing Ohio this weekend on behalf of Clinton & Dems with a combined 5 events aimed at millennials

    Warren will be in Columbus on Saturday and Cleveland on Sunday. Sanders is hitting the Canton, Kent and Akron areas on Saturday.

    She's Clinton pool reporter
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Vote share in all local council by elections since July 1st to date
    Lab 31% down 2% on last time contested
    Con 30% down 2% on last time contested
    LDem 16% up 8% on last time contested
    UKIP 8% down 5% on last time contested
    Green 4% down 1% on last time contested
    Nats 5% up 1% on last time contested
    Others 6% up 1% on last time contested
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    ITV
    From your home to the Prime Minister's: Take a virtual tour of 10 Downing Street
    https://t.co/z5jhikYAtt https://t.co/Ka443vMeKx
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    What are we to make of these polls? Labour on 29-34% but its leader's personal ratings are dreadful and chaps like Mr. Observer telling us that Corbyn has no interest or chance in winning the next GE. Of course, its years away from the election and so of academic interest only but the contradictions between Corbyn's reported (un)electability and Labour voting intention figures just don't seem to match.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Mine For Nothing
    Civitas Institute Poll: North Carolina

    Clinton 42% (-)
    Trump: 42% (+2)
    Johnson 5% (-1)
    Undecided 9% (-1)

    2012: Romney +2
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    PlatoSaid said:

    ITV
    From your home to the Prime Minister's: Take a virtual tour of 10 Downing Street
    https://t.co/z5jhikYAtt https://t.co/Ka443vMeKx

    Great pictures, but how on earth did Google get one of their camera vans inside No.10 ?
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Every single poll is newsworthy, the changes are always significant and things like leadership ratings should not, never, nuh-uh be interpreted in terms of the time series data.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    edited September 2016
    As ever, for the opposition leader, I'd just post this handy monthly chart

    https://image.slidesharecdn.com/ipsosmoripoliticalmonitor-september2016-160915112412/95/ipsos-mori-political-monitor-september-2016-8-638.jpg?cb=1473938850

    Other note - being on 44 % for "out of touch with ordinary people" is spectacular for someone wearing a red rosette.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    HurstLlama said:

    What are we to make of these polls? Labour on 29-34% but its leader's personal ratings are dreadful and chaps like Mr. Observer telling us that Corbyn has no interest or chance in winning the next GE. Of course, its years away from the election and so of academic interest only but the contradictions between Corbyn's reported (un)electability and Labour voting intention figures just don't seem to match.

    Anyone else getting deja vu?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited September 2016
    SimonStClare said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    ITV
    From your home to the Prime Minister's: Take a virtual tour of 10 Downing Street
    https://t.co/z5jhikYAtt https://t.co/Ka443vMeKx

    Great pictures, but how on earth did Google get one of their camera vans inside No.10 ?
    They have a backpack version. They are adding all sorts of walks in national parks etc.

    https://www.google.com/maps/about/images/treks/canyon2-carousel.jpg
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Alistair said:

    weejonnie said:

    HYUFD said:

    weejonnie said:

    AllyPally_Rob said:

    A bit of perspective on the presidential race. Trump certainly seems to have some momentum at the moment, but the electoral college is still a roadblock the size of a boulder in terms of his chance of getting to 270.

    Hillary starts with 19 states that have gone Dem EVERY election since 1992. That's 242 electoral votes. She's only 28 away, which means she could lose every swing state and only win Florida, and she'd still be president.

    Trump needs to break that wall, and do what McCain and Romney tried to do but fail, and bring Pennsylvania into play. Clinton has been consistently ahead here (she's up 6 according to RCP). He's very unlikely to flip this state (Bush Snr was the last GOP candidate to do it), and with Virginia and Colorado looking unlikely too he simply doesn't have a path.

    Latest LA Times: Trump +6 - this is the last one before the full effect of the CiC debate is felt (8 - 14 Sep) but includes 3 days before Clinton Collapse.
    The CiC debate was not a proper one on one debate so I doubt had much impact. The first proper head to head debate is on 27th September in New York
    The swing to Trump started before 11th September, but was masked as most polls seem to cover about a week. I do note that 538 is discounting the LA Times by 4, not 6.

    If you look at 538s list of Pennsylvania polls then you won't see ANY that polled after September 8th, so the notional Clinton +3.3 is way out of date.
    On the LA Times tracker Trump was sitting at 43.8% on the 7th. By the 11th he was at 43.6%. that's 4 days of polling after the Commander in Chief forum. He only started rising in the tracker after the Clinton Collapse, after the 11th.
    The turning point occurred earlier, in late August, during Farage's magnificent introductory speech in Jackson, Mississippi. There was a palpable change in momentum.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Looking at the data tables , the changes are all in the weighting
    Lib Dems 84 in the sample weighted down to 56
    UKIP 54 in the sample weighted up to 84

    The final published VI figures are now more dependent on the weightings used than on what respondents tell the pollster .
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    Essexit said:


    Anyone else getting deja vu?

    I am looking at what is going on in the USA.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    MarkSenior said:

    Looking at the data tables , the changes are all in the weighting
    Lib Dems 84 in the sample weighted down to 56
    UKIP 54 in the sample weighted up to 84

    The final published VI figures are now more dependent on the weightings used than on what respondents tell the pollster .

    Or, to put it bluntly, the polling companies are just making it all up as they go along?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    PlatoSaid said:

    Mine For Nothing
    Civitas Institute Poll: North Carolina

    Clinton 42% (-)
    Trump: 42% (+2)
    Johnson 5% (-1)
    Undecided 9% (-1)

    2012: Romney +2

    Field work dates?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    HurstLlama said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Looking at the data tables , the changes are all in the weighting
    Lib Dems 84 in the sample weighted down to 56
    UKIP 54 in the sample weighted up to 84

    The final published VI figures are now more dependent on the weightings used than on what respondents tell the pollster .

    Or, to put it bluntly, the polling companies are just making it all up as they go along?
    Well we know that the Conservatives are in the lead, with Labour 2nd.

    Past that I wouldn't like to extrapolate too far...
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Pulpstar said:

    Essexit said:


    Anyone else getting deja vu?

    I am looking at what is going on in the USA.
    It's gripping, huge fun and outrageous - what a vintage year
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    A few more polls released of 538 - all of which say that its a tie (Hillary's overall lead down to 2% (lowest was 1.7). Donald's chance still South of 40% but getting closer)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Interesting to consider whether Trump or Clinton is more toxic. I'd guess the former.

    That may have implications for shy support.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    HurstLlama said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Looking at the data tables , the changes are all in the weighting
    Lib Dems 84 in the sample weighted down to 56
    UKIP 54 in the sample weighted up to 84

    The final published VI figures are now more dependent on the weightings used than on what respondents tell the pollster .

    Or, to put it bluntly, the polling companies are just making it all up as they go along?
    Being charitable , the polling companies have no confidence in their own data and are trying to compensate for past erroneous results by weighting to what they think the figures should be .
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited September 2016
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Interesting to consider whether Trump or Clinton is more toxic. I'd guess the former.

    That may have implications for shy support.

    I think there is definitely an element of that. I think people will say they will vote Democrat despite not liking Clinton, but got to be pressure to not admit to considering to vote for Trump as you will be labelled as racist, homophobe, xenophobe, islamophobe deplorable.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    edited September 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Essexit said:


    Anyone else getting deja vu?

    I am looking at what is going on in the USA.
    It's gripping, huge fun and outrageous - what a vintage year
    Will come down to GOTV (as usual). Of course many Republicans think the Democrats just have to push a few buttons on Soros's machines to get their vote out.

    However this may give a hint - higher voting levels will probably favour The Don.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    However this may give a hint - higher voting levels will probably favour The Don.

    And there has to be a 'shy' Trump vote, surely. One that doesn;t appear in the opinion polls.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Interesting to consider whether Trump or Clinton is more toxic. I'd guess the former.

    That may have implications for shy support.

    I think there is definitely an element of that.
    Look at the latest NBC poll, it puts support for Hillary with black people at under 90% for the first time in a while, Trump on 6%, how many of the DKs are just shy Trump supporters?

    I honestly think his, you've got nothing to lose, pitch is going to work. It might take a bit of time but there is no effective way of combating it from the Clinton camp. Telling people who feel like they have nothing to lose that they do will just infuriate them further and drive them furthet into the camp of the person who says he might do better. I remember having these arguments with assorted leftists about the chances of the WWC in the north voting to leave even though the pitch was being made by Nigel, Boris and the likes of Bill Cash, none of whom give a shit about the NHS or public services. It feels a lot like that again.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Interesting to consider whether Trump or Clinton is more toxic. I'd guess the former.

    That may have implications for shy support.

    I'm surprised by the apparent lack of a sympathy boost for ailing Hillary in recent polls. People just don't like her.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MaxPB said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Interesting to consider whether Trump or Clinton is more toxic. I'd guess the former.

    That may have implications for shy support.

    I think there is definitely an element of that.
    Look at the latest NBC poll, it puts support for Hillary with black people at under 90% for the first time in a while, Trump on 6%, how many of the DKs are just shy Trump supporters?

    I honestly think his, you've got nothing to lose, pitch is going to work. It might take a bit of time but there is no effective way of combating it from the Clinton camp. Telling people who feel like they have nothing to lose that they do will just infuriate them further and drive them furthet into the camp of the person who says he might do better. I remember having these arguments with assorted leftists about the chances of the WWC in the north voting to leave even though the pitch was being made by Nigel, Boris and the likes of Bill Cash, none of whom give a shit about the NHS or public services. It feels a lot like that again.
    The LA Times Tracker has Trump getting almost 20% Black support, all coming post the 11th.

    Which, you know, is scarcely believable as a long term trend.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    taffys said:

    However this may give a hint - higher voting levels will probably favour The Don.

    And there has to be a 'shy' Trump vote, surely. One that doesn;t appear in the opinion polls.

    The best gauge of that will be to look at the difference between phone polling and online polling.

    Now where and when did I hear that before?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited September 2016
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Interesting to consider whether Trump or Clinton is more toxic. I'd guess the former.

    That may have implications for shy support.

    I'm surprised by the apparent lack of a sympathy boost for ailing Hillary in recent polls. People just don't like her.
    Not sure it helped that there were lies upon lies upon lies over the whole incident.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    MarkSenior said:

    HurstLlama said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Looking at the data tables , the changes are all in the weighting
    Lib Dems 84 in the sample weighted down to 56
    UKIP 54 in the sample weighted up to 84

    The final published VI figures are now more dependent on the weightings used than on what respondents tell the pollster .

    Or, to put it bluntly, the polling companies are just making it all up as they go along?
    Being charitable , the polling companies have no confidence in their own data and are trying to compensate for past erroneous results by weighting to what they think the figures should be .
    Fair go, Mr. Senior, but if the polling companies are just going to tell us their opinion of what the figures should be what is the damn point of them?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited September 2016
    There is a pollster covering the US national vote, can't remember which, that displayed a 'refused' option. What was interesting was that it was quite obviously directly anti-correlated with the Trump share. When Trump had a poor poll refused shot up, when he polled better it dropped by pretty much the same margin. I think there could well be a fair few shy Trumps that could get him over the line.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Interesting to consider whether Trump or Clinton is more toxic. I'd guess the former.

    That may have implications for shy support.

    I'm surprised by the apparent lack of a sympathy boost for ailing Hillary in recent polls. People just don't like her.
    Not sure it helped that there were lies upon lies upon lies over the whole incident.
    You've nailed it. She's lied too often, all sympathy is spent.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited September 2016
    Philippines President Duterte 'once killed man with Uzi'

    Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte allegedly once shot dead a justice department agent with an Uzi submachine gun while serving as mayor of Davao.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-37370848
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Interesting to consider whether Trump or Clinton is more toxic. I'd guess the former.

    That may have implications for shy support.

    I'm surprised by the apparent lack of a sympathy boost for ailing Hillary in recent polls. People just don't like her.
    Not sure it helped that there were lies upon lies upon lies over the whole incident.
    You've nailed it. She's lied too often, all sympathy is spent.
    "So lie to me. But do it with sincerity"
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    BannedInParis said:

    As ever, for the opposition leader, I'd just post this handy monthly chart

    https://image.slidesharecdn.com/ipsosmoripoliticalmonitor-september2016-160915112412/95/ipsos-mori-political-monitor-september-2016-8-638.jpg?cb=1473938850

    Other note - being on 44 % for "out of touch with ordinary people" is spectacular for someone wearing a red rosette.

    Worse than IDS? But he was and is a dim, unelectable idiot.

    Oh, wait a minute. I think I see the problem.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Corbyn says vote to leave EU was 'decisive rejection of failed economic model'

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/sep/15/may-approves-hinkley-point-but-with-new-safeguards-over-foreign-nuclear-investment-politics-live
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    AndyJS said:

    "Corbyn says vote to leave EU was 'decisive rejection of failed economic model'

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/sep/15/may-approves-hinkley-point-but-with-new-safeguards-over-foreign-nuclear-investment-politics-live

    So Jeremy is a LEAVER after all!

    *perks up*
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Interesting to consider whether Trump or Clinton is more toxic. I'd guess the former.

    That may have implications for shy support.

    I'm surprised by the apparent lack of a sympathy boost for ailing Hillary in recent polls. People just don't like her.
    Not sure it helped that there were lies upon lies upon lies over the whole incident.
    You've nailed it. She's lied too often, all sympathy is spent.
    "So lie to me. But do it with sincerity"
    Her husband, Bill, was a charming and, to me, transparent liar. But the charm won out. She's charmless.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    edited September 2016
    MarkSenior said:

    HurstLlama said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Looking at the data tables , the changes are all in the weighting
    Lib Dems 84 in the sample weighted down to 56
    UKIP 54 in the sample weighted up to 84

    The final published VI figures are now more dependent on the weightings used than on what respondents tell the pollster .

    Or, to put it bluntly, the polling companies are just making it all up as they go along?
    Being charitable , the polling companies have no confidence in their own data and are trying to compensate for past erroneous results by weighting to what they think the figures should be .
    So why should we?

    Your stats on LA results were exactly what I had in mind. 6%? Pfft.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,895
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Corbyn says vote to leave EU was 'decisive rejection of failed economic model'

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/sep/15/may-approves-hinkley-point-but-with-new-safeguards-over-foreign-nuclear-investment-politics-live

    So Jeremy is a LEAVER after all!

    *perks up*
    AndyJS said:

    "Corbyn says vote to leave EU was 'decisive rejection of failed economic model'

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/sep/15/may-approves-hinkley-point-but-with-new-safeguards-over-foreign-nuclear-investment-politics-live

    Doesn't understand the meaning of the word 'decisive'.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207
    weejonnie said:

    A few more polls released of 538 - all of which say that its a tie (Hillary's overall lead down to 2% (lowest was 1.7). Donald's chance still South of 40% but getting closer)

    Isn't this the point at which Americans are supposed to start waking up and paying attention to politics, post-Labor Day? "Oh look" says America, "the Democrats have picked an old lady who has to be thrown into a van..."
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    MarqueeMark said:

    weejonnie said:

    A few more polls released of 538 - all of which say that its a tie (Hillary's overall lead down to 2% (lowest was 1.7). Donald's chance still South of 40% but getting closer)

    Isn't this the point at which Americans are supposed to start waking up and paying attention to politics, post-Labor Day? "Oh look" says America, "the Democrats have picked an old lady who has to be thrown into a van extremely healthy lady who simply felt unwell due to hot summers day and stumbled on the curb
    Corrected for you...
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,895
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Alistair said:

    weejonnie said:

    HYUFD said:

    weejonnie said:

    AllyPally_Rob said:

    A bit of perspective on the presidential race. Trump certainly seems to have some momentum at the moment, but the electoral college is still a roadblock the size of a boulder in terms of his chance of getting to 270.

    Hillary starts with 19 states that have gone Dem EVERY election since 1992. That's 242 electoral votes. She's only 28 away, which means she could lose every swing state and only win Florida, and she'd still be president.

    Trump needs to break that wall, and do what McCain and Romney tried to do but fail, and bring Pennsylvania into play. Clinton has been consistently ahead here (she's up 6 according to RCP). He's very unlikely to flip this state (Bush Snr was the last GOP candidate to do it), and with Virginia and Colorado looking unlikely too he simply doesn't have a path.

    Latest LA Times: Trump +6 - this is the last one before the full effect of the CiC debate is felt (8 - 14 Sep) but includes 3 days before Clinton Collapse.
    The CiC debate was not a proper one on one debate so I doubt had much impact. The first proper head to head debate is on 27th September in New York
    The swing to Trump started before 11th September, but was masked as most polls seem to cover about a week. I do note that 538 is discounting the LA Times by 4, not 6.

    If you look at 538s list of Pennsylvania polls then you won't see ANY that polled after September 8th, so the notional Clinton +3.3 is way out of date.
    On the LA Times tracker Trump was sitting at 43.8% on the 7th. By the 11th he was at 43.6%. that's 4 days of polling after the Commander in Chief forum. He only started rising in the tracker after the Clinton Collapse, after the 11th.
    The turning point occurred earlier, in late August, during Farage's magnificent introductory speech in Jackson, Mississippi. There was a palpable change in momentum.
    It's always difficult to discern sarcasm - there should be an emoticon for it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    MarqueeMark said:

    weejonnie said:

    A few more polls released of 538 - all of which say that its a tie (Hillary's overall lead down to 2% (lowest was 1.7). Donald's chance still South of 40% but getting closer)

    Isn't this the point at which Americans are supposed to start waking up and paying attention to politics, post-Labor Day? "Oh look" says America, "the Democrats have picked an old lady who has to be thrown into a van..."
    Do the Hillary shake
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,751
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Interesting to consider whether Trump or Clinton is more toxic. I'd guess the former.

    That may have implications for shy support.

    I think there is definitely an element of that. I think people will say they will vote Democrat despite not liking Clinton, but got to be pressure to not admit to considering to vote for Trump as you will be labelled as racist, homophobe, xenophobe, islamophobe deplorable.
    What percentage of Trump's support do you think actually are racists, homophobes, xenophobes and islamophobes?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,163
    MarqueeMark said:

    weejonnie said:

    A few more polls released of 538 - all of which say that its a tie (Hillary's overall lead down to 2% (lowest was 1.7). Donald's chance still South of 40% but getting closer)

    Isn't this the point at which Americans are supposed to start waking up and paying attention to politics, post-Labor Day? "Oh look" says America, "the Democrats have picked an old lady who has to be thrown into a van..."
    Two words: Demographics, ground game.

    But, if she faints or stumbles during the Debate then it's over and we need those nuclear shelters in our gardens.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Theuniondivvie said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Interesting to consider whether Trump or Clinton is more toxic. I'd guess the former.

    That may have implications for shy support.

    I think there is definitely an element of that. I think people will say they will vote Democrat despite not liking Clinton, but got to be pressure to not admit to considering to vote for Trump as you will be labelled as racist, homophobe, xenophobe, islamophobe deplorable.
    What percentage of Trump's support do you think actually are racists, homophobes, xenophobes and islamophobes?
    110 %, minimum.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    rottenborough said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    weejonnie said:

    A few more polls released of 538 - all of which say that its a tie (Hillary's overall lead down to 2% (lowest was 1.7). Donald's chance still South of 40% but getting closer)

    Isn't this the point at which Americans are supposed to start waking up and paying attention to politics, post-Labor Day? "Oh look" says America, "the Democrats have picked an old lady who has to be thrown into a van..."
    Two words: Demographics, ground game.

    But, if she faints or stumbles during the Debate then it's over and we need those nuclear shelters in our gardens.
    Wasn't there talk about a sensational ground game on here in a previous race?... titters
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    edited September 2016
    A Facebook friend has just begun to realise the the changes afoot because of the EU link tax, the response was, "isn't there anything we can do about Oettinger? Can't we vote him out?" unsurprisingly, he is one of those people who was massively in favour of Remain. People say that leavers didn't know what they were voting for, I'd say the same is true for a lot of remainers. Needless the say I informed him that Oettinger as a member of the commission couldn't be voted out because he was never voted in, the EU being an undemocratic organisation, after all. My gloating didn't go down well.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    Theuniondivvie said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Interesting to consider whether Trump or Clinton is more toxic. I'd guess the former.

    That may have implications for shy support.

    I think there is definitely an element of that. I think people will say they will vote Democrat despite not liking Clinton, but got to be pressure to not admit to considering to vote for Trump as you will be labelled as racist, homophobe, xenophobe, islamophobe deplorable.
    What percentage of Trump's support do you think actually are racists, homophobes, xenophobes and islamophobes?
    A not insignificant amount....but as John Harris video showed there is a lot more in play and why Bernie would have steam rolled Trump.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    logical_song said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Corbyn says vote to leave EU was 'decisive rejection of failed economic model'

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/sep/15/may-approves-hinkley-point-but-with-new-safeguards-over-foreign-nuclear-investment-politics-live

    So Jeremy is a LEAVER after all!

    *perks up*
    AndyJS said:

    "Corbyn says vote to leave EU was 'decisive rejection of failed economic model'

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/sep/15/may-approves-hinkley-point-but-with-new-safeguards-over-foreign-nuclear-investment-politics-live

    Doesn't understand the meaning of the word 'decisive'.
    Closer referendum results have included Quebec, 1995:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_referendum,_1995
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    rottenborough said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    weejonnie said:

    A few more polls released of 538 - all of which say that its a tie (Hillary's overall lead down to 2% (lowest was 1.7). Donald's chance still South of 40% but getting closer)

    Isn't this the point at which Americans are supposed to start waking up and paying attention to politics, post-Labor Day? "Oh look" says America, "the Democrats have picked an old lady who has to be thrown into a van..."
    Two words: Demographics, ground game.

    But, if she faints or stumbles during the Debate then it's over and we need those nuclear shelters in our gardens.
    Sometimes the rising tide is so strong that a good ground game and demographics get swept away. This is what happened in June when millions of "never voted" turned out to vote leave.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,895
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    logical_song said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Corbyn says vote to leave EU was 'decisive rejection of failed economic model'

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/sep/15/may-approves-hinkley-point-but-with-new-safeguards-over-foreign-nuclear-investment-politics-live

    So Jeremy is a LEAVER after all!

    *perks up*
    AndyJS said:

    "Corbyn says vote to leave EU was 'decisive rejection of failed economic model'

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/sep/15/may-approves-hinkley-point-but-with-new-safeguards-over-foreign-nuclear-investment-politics-live

    Doesn't understand the meaning of the word 'decisive'.
    Closer referendum results have included Quebec, 1995:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_referendum,_1995
    Yes, pretty indecisive too.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Interesting to consider whether Trump or Clinton is more toxic. I'd guess the former.

    That may have implications for shy support.

    I think there is definitely an element of that. I think people will say they will vote Democrat despite not liking Clinton, but got to be pressure to not admit to considering to vote for Trump as you will be labelled as racist, homophobe, xenophobe, islamophobe deplorable.
    What percentage of Trump's support do you think actually are racists, homophobes, xenophobes and islamophobes?
    A not insignificant amount....but as John Harris video showed there is a lot more in play and why Bernie would have steam rolled Trump.
    If Bernie was the Dem candidate would we even be talking about Pennsylvania or Maine? Ohio would be a lost cause for Trump as well. Bernie would have the same righteous anger about job transfers and "free" trading as Trump, he wouldn't be on the wrong side of the argument.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Latest odds on Betfair for Trump: 2.96 / 2.98

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107373419
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    logical_song said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    logical_song said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Corbyn says vote to leave EU was 'decisive rejection of failed economic model'

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/sep/15/may-approves-hinkley-point-but-with-new-safeguards-over-foreign-nuclear-investment-politics-live

    So Jeremy is a LEAVER after all!

    *perks up*
    AndyJS said:

    "Corbyn says vote to leave EU was 'decisive rejection of failed economic model'

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/sep/15/may-approves-hinkley-point-but-with-new-safeguards-over-foreign-nuclear-investment-politics-live

    Doesn't understand the meaning of the word 'decisive'.
    Closer referendum results have included Quebec, 1995:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_referendum,_1995
    Yes, pretty indecisive too.
    Was there a "second referendum", after 1995?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    MaxPB said:

    A Facebook friend has just begun to realise the the changes afoot because of the EU link tax, the response was, "isn't there anything we can do about Oettinger? Can't we vote him out?" unsurprisingly, he is one of those people who was massively in favour of Remain. People say that leavers didn't know what they were voting for, I'd say the same is true for a lot of remainers. Needless the say I informed him that Oettinger as a member of the commission couldn't be voted out because he was never voted in, the EU being an undemocratic organisation, after all. My gloating didn't go down well.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JfUM5xHUY4M
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    MaxPB said:

    A Facebook friend has just begun to realise the the changes afoot because of the EU link tax, the response was, "isn't there anything we can do about Oettinger? Can't we vote him out?" unsurprisingly, he is one of those people who was massively in favour of Remain. People say that leavers didn't know what they were voting for, I'd say the same is true for a lot of remainers. Needless the say I informed him that Oettinger as a member of the commission couldn't be voted out because he was never voted in, the EU being an undemocratic organisation, after all. My gloating didn't go down well.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=JfUM5xHUY4M
    The EU commission? :D
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    RobD said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    MaxPB said:

    A Facebook friend has just begun to realise the the changes afoot because of the EU link tax, the response was, "isn't there anything we can do about Oettinger? Can't we vote him out?" unsurprisingly, he is one of those people who was massively in favour of Remain. People say that leavers didn't know what they were voting for, I'd say the same is true for a lot of remainers. Needless the say I informed him that Oettinger as a member of the commission couldn't be voted out because he was never voted in, the EU being an undemocratic organisation, after all. My gloating didn't go down well.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=JfUM5xHUY4M
    The EU commission? :D
    *evil laughter* :lol:
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    RobD said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    MaxPB said:

    A Facebook friend has just begun to realise the the changes afoot because of the EU link tax, the response was, "isn't there anything we can do about Oettinger? Can't we vote him out?" unsurprisingly, he is one of those people who was massively in favour of Remain. People say that leavers didn't know what they were voting for, I'd say the same is true for a lot of remainers. Needless the say I informed him that Oettinger as a member of the commission couldn't be voted out because he was never voted in, the EU being an undemocratic organisation, after all. My gloating didn't go down well.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=JfUM5xHUY4M
    The EU commission? :D
    *evil laughter* :lol:
    Someone needs to photoshop Juncker's head over Dr. Evil's
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    logical_song said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Alistair said:

    weejonnie said:

    HYUFD said:

    weejonnie said:

    AllyPally_Rob said:

    A bit of perspective on the presidential race. Trump certainly seems to have some momentum at the moment, but the electoral college is still a roadblock the size of a boulder in terms of his chance of getting to 270.

    Hillary starts with 19 states that have gone Dem EVERY election since 1992. That's 242 electoral votes. She's only 28 away, which means she could lose every swing state and only win Florida, and she'd still be president.

    Trump needs to break that wall, and do what McCain and Romney tried to do but fail, and bring Pennsylvania into play. Clinton has been consistently ahead here (she's up 6 according to RCP). He's very unlikely to flip this state (Bush Snr was the last GOP candidate to do it), and with Virginia and Colorado looking unlikely too he simply doesn't have a path.

    Latest LA Times: Trump +6 - this is the last one before the full effect of the CiC debate is felt (8 - 14 Sep) but includes 3 days before Clinton Collapse.
    The CiC debate was not a proper one on one debate so I doubt had much impact. The first proper head to head debate is on 27th September in New York
    The swing to Trump started before 11th September, but was masked as most polls seem to cover about a week. I do note that 538 is discounting the LA Times by 4, not 6.

    If you look at 538s list of Pennsylvania polls then you won't see ANY that polled after September 8th, so the notional Clinton +3.3 is way out of date.
    On the LA Times tracker Trump was sitting at 43.8% on the 7th. By the 11th he was at 43.6%. that's 4 days of polling after the Commander in Chief forum. He only started rising in the tracker after the Clinton Collapse, after the 11th.
    The turning point occurred earlier, in late August, during Farage's magnificent introductory speech in Jackson, Mississippi. There was a palpable change in momentum.
    It's always difficult to discern sarcasm - there should be an emoticon for it.
    No sarcasm, my friend. The change in the mood was tangible.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,692
    MaxPB said:

    A Facebook friend has just begun to realise the the changes afoot because of the EU link tax, the response was, "isn't there anything we can do about Oettinger? Can't we vote him out?" unsurprisingly, he is one of those people who was massively in favour of Remain. People say that leavers didn't know what they were voting for, I'd say the same is true for a lot of remainers. Needless the say I informed him that Oettinger as a member of the commission couldn't be voted out because he was never voted in, the EU being an undemocratic organisation, after all. My gloating didn't go down well.

    Isn't it a ban rather than a tax?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/business/lack-of-brexit-effects-proves-brexit-has-not-yet-happened-20160915113825
    RobD said:

    rottenborough said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    weejonnie said:

    A few more polls released of 538 - all of which say that its a tie (Hillary's overall lead down to 2% (lowest was 1.7). Donald's chance still South of 40% but getting closer)

    Isn't this the point at which Americans are supposed to start waking up and paying attention to politics, post-Labor Day? "Oh look" says America, "the Democrats have picked an old lady who has to be thrown into a van..."
    Two words: Demographics, ground game.

    But, if she faints or stumbles during the Debate then it's over and we need those nuclear shelters in our gardens.
    Wasn't there talk about a sensational ground game on here in a previous race?... titters
    Yes, but that was a load of untargeted feel good bollocks. Obama's targeting operation was so good that the software that underpinned it was commercialised and is widely used in business. They literally tagged every single voter in the United States with a likelyhood to vote and likelyhood to go Democrat value. 5-10,000 person polls every week, per state in the swing states.

    And I've seen enough anecdotes about 2016 to say that Hilary's operation is an upgrade.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MaxPB said:

    rottenborough said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    weejonnie said:

    A few more polls released of 538 - all of which say that its a tie (Hillary's overall lead down to 2% (lowest was 1.7). Donald's chance still South of 40% but getting closer)

    Isn't this the point at which Americans are supposed to start waking up and paying attention to politics, post-Labor Day? "Oh look" says America, "the Democrats have picked an old lady who has to be thrown into a van..."
    Two words: Demographics, ground game.

    But, if she faints or stumbles during the Debate then it's over and we need those nuclear shelters in our gardens.
    Sometimes the rising tide is so strong that a good ground game and demographics get swept away. This is what happened in June when millions of "never voted" turned out to vote leave.
    Was the Remain ground game any good?
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    weejonnie said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Essexit said:


    Anyone else getting deja vu?

    I am looking at what is going on in the USA.
    It's gripping, huge fun and outrageous - what a vintage year
    Will come down to GOTV (as usual). Of course many Republicans think the Democrats just have to push a few buttons on Soros's machines to get their vote out.

    However this may give a hint - higher voting levels will probably favour The Don.
    Why is everyone assuming higher turnout will favour Donald? Donald could just as well drive turnout of minorities against him. We just don't know that's why this election is particularly hard to call. We are all letting our hearts block our judgements on this one.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    RobD said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    RobD said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    MaxPB said:

    A Facebook friend has just begun to realise the the changes afoot because of the EU link tax, the response was, "isn't there anything we can do about Oettinger? Can't we vote him out?" unsurprisingly, he is one of those people who was massively in favour of Remain. People say that leavers didn't know what they were voting for, I'd say the same is true for a lot of remainers. Needless the say I informed him that Oettinger as a member of the commission couldn't be voted out because he was never voted in, the EU being an undemocratic organisation, after all. My gloating didn't go down well.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=JfUM5xHUY4M
    The EU commission? :D
    *evil laughter* :lol:
    Someone needs to photoshop Juncker's head over Dr. Evil's
    "Very well, where should I begin? My father was a relentlessly self-improving boulangerie owner from Belgium with low-grade narcolepsy and a penchant for buggery. My mother was a fifteen-year-old French prostitute named Chloe with webbed feet. My father would womanize, he would drink, he would make outrageous claims, like he invented the question mark. Sometimes he would accuse chestnuts of being lazy. A sort of general malaise that only the genius possess and the insane lament. My childhood was typical. Summers in Rangoon, luge lessons. In the spring we'd make meat helmets. If I was insolent, I was placed in a burlap bag and beaten with reeds. Pretty standard, really. At the age of twelve I received my first scribe. At the age of fifteen, a Zoroastrian named Vilma ritualistically shaved my testicles. There really is nothing like a shaven scrotum. At the age of eighteen, I went off to evil medical school."
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    Alistair said:

    http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/business/lack-of-brexit-effects-proves-brexit-has-not-yet-happened-20160915113825

    RobD said:

    rottenborough said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    weejonnie said:

    A few more polls released of 538 - all of which say that its a tie (Hillary's overall lead down to 2% (lowest was 1.7). Donald's chance still South of 40% but getting closer)

    Isn't this the point at which Americans are supposed to start waking up and paying attention to politics, post-Labor Day? "Oh look" says America, "the Democrats have picked an old lady who has to be thrown into a van..."
    Two words: Demographics, ground game.

    But, if she faints or stumbles during the Debate then it's over and we need those nuclear shelters in our gardens.
    Wasn't there talk about a sensational ground game on here in a previous race?... titters
    Yes, but that was a load of untargeted feel good bollocks. Obama's targeting operation was so good that the software that underpinned it was commercialised and is widely used in business. They literally tagged every single voter in the United States with a likelyhood to vote and likelyhood to go Democrat value. 5-10,000 person polls every week, per state in the swing states.

    And I've seen enough anecdotes about 2016 to say that Hilary's operation is an upgrade.
    And yet she's struggling in the polls.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    MarkHopkins said:


    But... But... Brexit...

    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/776413529637257216

    How long before they raise it to 0.6% I wonder?
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    rottenborough said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    weejonnie said:

    A few more polls released of 538 - all of which say that its a tie (Hillary's overall lead down to 2% (lowest was 1.7). Donald's chance still South of 40% but getting closer)

    Isn't this the point at which Americans are supposed to start waking up and paying attention to politics, post-Labor Day? "Oh look" says America, "the Democrats have picked an old lady who has to be thrown into a van..."
    Two words: Demographics, ground game.

    But, if she faints or stumbles during the Debate then it's over and we need those nuclear shelters in our gardens.
    Sometimes the rising tide is so strong that a good ground game and demographics get swept away. This is what happened in June when millions of "never voted" turned out to vote leave.
    Was the Remain ground game any good?
    It was led by Labour, so that answers your question.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    It feels like we are very much in the middle of a tipping point across 'the west', to a sort of authoritarian populism vs metropolitanism, as opposed to the traditional left right axis. Hofer's close run was perhaps the warning shot, Brexit the first big reaction, and we shall soon see how things pan out with Trump and Hofer, indicating the chances for MLP in France next year. Despite them all often being associated with being 'right wing' or 'far-right', there isn't really much solid evidence that it's the case. Even in mainstream centre-right governments it's the case that they are taking populist/anti-business turns. Look at May and the increasing possibility of a hard brexit, to satisfy 'the people' at the expense of 'big business'.

    Interesting to imagine whether Trump, Le Pen, and Putin would actually lead to a shift/realignment in international relations, or whether much would really change at all long term.
This discussion has been closed.