Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cameron quits the Commons sparking off the first by-electio

SystemSystem Posts: 11,711
edited September 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cameron quits the Commons sparking off the first by-election in a CON seat since GE2015

Cameron has announced this afternoon that he’s going to follow Tony Blair – the last former successful general election winner to stand down as an MP shortly after stepping down as party leader and PM.

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,079
    It was Labour in the 90s and so it shall be again!
  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    who will be the Tory candidate?
  • Options
    David Cameron took the Tory party from fewer than 200 MPs to a majority government whilst destroying the Lib Dems and driving Labour mad.

    I for one will remember David Cameron very fondly.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,636
    edited September 2016
    Witney was held by a Labour MP when Dave was the Tory candidate, now look at how safe a Tory seat it is. #AwesomeDave #ToriesGoingToMissHim
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I don't think Labour will hold second place in Witney with Corbyn as leader. They might even be beaten by the Greens as well as UKIP and the LDs.
  • Options
    This has the Henley by election of 2008 written all over it.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,634

    David Cameron took the Tory party from fewer than 200 MPs to a majority government whilst destroying the Lib Dems and driving Labour mad.

    I for one will remember David Cameron very fondly.

    I think most of us will.
  • Options
    Labour were fifth in Henley in 2008. No doubt Jeremy Corbyn will do better than Gordon Brown did then.
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    It was Labour in the 90s and so it shall be again!

    Labour held Witney when Blair was PM, if Corbyn's Labour cannot take Witney, then Corbyn should resign as leader.
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''This has the Henley by election of 2008 written all over it. ''

    I wonder what odds you could get on a labour lost deposit....??
  • Options
    Meanwhile, back on the subject of grammar schools:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/775354495907794944
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    David Cameron took the Tory party from fewer than 200 MPs to a majority government whilst destroying the Lib Dems and driving Labour mad.

    I for one will remember David Cameron very fondly.

    I think most of us will.
    I'd like to see the stats on that. My only regret in this resignation is the fact he's not taking Osborne with him.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,973
    So who do the Tories want to get into Parliament with a safe seat? Someone local or someone who worked closely with DC and wants to succeed him. I guess it's a year or two early for the MEPs to be fighting over it.
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Would have been funny if HRC had gone into the flat and then reappeared as Elvis......

    Well is about as sensible as thinking she has a double however good fun that is.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,634

    MaxPB said:

    David Cameron took the Tory party from fewer than 200 MPs to a majority government whilst destroying the Lib Dems and driving Labour mad.

    I for one will remember David Cameron very fondly.

    I think most of us will.
    I'd like to see the stats on that. My only regret in this resignation is the fact he's not taking Osborne with him.
    He kept his promise and delivered us a referendum. You should be happy with that, at least.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,079

    David Cameron took the Tory party from fewer than 200 MPs to a majority government whilst destroying the Lib Dems and driving Labour mad.

    I for one will remember David Cameron very fondly.

    I think he was a pretty good PM. Not a complete success, he proved inadequate in some key areas, but he was, in intent it seemed, centrist, collegial and reasonable.

    I just wished he'd had been able to get a better deal from the EU.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sandpit said:

    So who do the Tories want to get into Parliament with a safe seat? Someone local or someone who worked closely with DC and wants to succeed him. I guess it's a year or two early for the MEPs to be fighting over it.

    Angie Bray and Mary Mcleod, who both lost their seats in London last year, must be possibilities.
  • Options
    taffys said:

    'I wonder what odds you could get on a labour lost deposit....??

    Not going to happen.
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    So who do the Tories want to get into Parliament with a safe seat? Someone local or someone who worked closely with DC and wants to succeed him. I guess it's a year or two early for the MEPs to be fighting over it.

    JohnO, Esther McVey, and Cyclefree are on my short list
  • Options
    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215

    Sandpit said:

    So who do the Tories want to get into Parliament with a safe seat? Someone local or someone who worked closely with DC and wants to succeed him. I guess it's a year or two early for the MEPs to be fighting over it.

    JohnO, Esther McVey, and Cyclefree are on my short list
    Try for an all male shortlist.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,973

    Witney was held by a Labour MP when Dave was the Tory candidate, now look at how safe a Tory seat it is. #AwesomeDave #ToriesGoingToMissHim

    LOL, that's technically true but not the whole story. A bit like Hillary's pneumonia.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Meanwhile, back on the subject of grammar schools:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/775354495907794944

    Will the SNP be voting? If not the Tory majority rises to about 68.
  • Options
    And the blue candidate for Witney is – step forward TSE…
  • Options
    JohnO said:

    Sandpit said:

    So who do the Tories want to get into Parliament with a safe seat? Someone local or someone who worked closely with DC and wants to succeed him. I guess it's a year or two early for the MEPs to be fighting over it.

    JohnO, Esther McVey, and Cyclefree are on my short list
    Try for an all male shortlist.
    How far is Witney from your alma mater?
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    David Cameron took the Tory party from fewer than 200 MPs to a majority government whilst destroying the Lib Dems and driving Labour mad.

    I for one will remember David Cameron very fondly.

    I think most of us will.
    His resignation today shows just how much integrity he possess by moving on and seeking new challenges. How anyone can expect a former Prime Minister to sit on the back benches is just unrealistic and a dreadful waste of the skills acquired in the post of Prime Minister.

    I always supported David Cameron who was an excellent PM and I hope he goes on to a succesfull second career, he is only 49.

    How about head of NATO
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    Witney was held by a Labour MP when Dave was the Tory candidate, now look at how safe a Tory seat it is. #AwesomeDave #ToriesGoingToMissHim

    LOL, that's technically true but not the whole story. A bit like Hillary's pneumonia.
    You can see why someone once described me as potentially a truly great spin doctor
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,973

    Sandpit said:

    So who do the Tories want to get into Parliament with a safe seat? Someone local or someone who worked closely with DC and wants to succeed him. I guess it's a year or two early for the MEPs to be fighting over it.

    JohnO, Esther McVey, and Cyclefree are on my short list
    That's a good shortlist.
  • Options

    And the blue candidate for Witney is – step forward TSE…

    Oh God no. For starters, I'd make a very poor candidate for an Oxfordshire seat.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Witney B/E : one way Labour could avoid finishing 4th is if they finish 5th.

  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Will the SNP be voting? If not the Tory majority rises to about 68. ''

    Its a devolved power in Wales too.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    TGOHF said:

    Witney B/E : one way Labour could avoid finishing 4th is if they finish 5th.

    That's possible. It could be Con, LD, UKIP, Green, Lab.
  • Options
    Mr. Eagles, that's very honest of you. But don't worry. I'm sure a Mancunian seat will come your way one day.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,634

    AndyJS said:

    Why are grammar schools so unpopular with the privately educated?

    A rhetorical question I guess.

    Because we look at the evidence, and the evidence stacks up against grammar schools. They only help a few, not all.
    Whereas the Comprehensive system helps no one as it works on the principle of dragging everyone down to the lowest common denominator. .

    The state education is of no concern to them, Richard. They have parents with the means to send them to fee paying schools. It's only the plebs who have to worry about the quality of state education.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    AndyJS said:

    Meanwhile, back on the subject of grammar schools:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/775354495907794944

    Will the SNP be voting? If not the Tory majority rises to about 68.
    Of course they will be voting, their only reason to exist is to cause tension between England and Scotland a little issue like education being a devolved matter won't get in their way.

    As for Whitney just thank the turncoat Shaun Woodford for defecting or Cameron might not have entered Parliament when he did.
  • Options

    And the blue candidate for Witney is – step forward TSE…

    Oh God no. For starters, I'd make a very poor candidate for an Oxfordshire seat.
    I think you may be right - The shoes alone are enough to scare off the locals. :lol:
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,079
    One good thing about this will be this time it will be the Tories trying to make too much out of winning a safe seat, rather than Labour as has been the case far more often the last few years with the by-elections.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,973

    And the blue candidate for Witney is – step forward TSE…

    Oh God no. For starters, I'd make a very poor candidate for an Oxfordshire seat.
    Do '90s music references not go down well in Oxfordshire then? You should stand, there's No Limit to your talents.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,634

    Witney was held by a Labour MP when Dave was the Tory candidate, now look at how safe a Tory seat it is. #AwesomeDave #ToriesGoingToMissHim

    Lol, bloody turncoat Woodward. Didn't he defect back after a while?
  • Options
    The debate on Greening's statement suggests getting grammar schools through the Commons is going to be very tough. And of course the Lords would just throw it back anyway.

    So what is May up to here? Is it virtue signalling, or a casus electionis?
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,234
    Regardless of what one thinks of Cameron himself, I think it a shame that Cameron is not staying on as an MP until the next election. Being an MP is an honourable form of public service and I'd have thought his constituents and Parliament itself would benefit from having his experience. He could, for instance, use his time to focus on some of the issues he touched on as PM e.g. his ideas re the Big Society or on how to attack the roots of Islamist extremism within our society.

    It would be good to set an example that being a politician is not just about reaching the heights and that you can achieve and contribute even after being at the top table. It seems to me to be a pity that those with experience are so unwilling to pass it on and share it, often viewing it only as something to be monetized for their own benefit. Even if he disagrees with May there are plenty of things he can do for his constituents without making his disagreements public.

    Ah well...
  • Options

    AndyJS said:

    Why are grammar schools so unpopular with the privately educated?

    A rhetorical question I guess.

    Because we look at the evidence, and the evidence stacks up against grammar schools. They only help a few, not all.
    Whereas the Comprehensive system helps no one as it works on the principle of dragging everyone down to the lowest common denominator. .

    That's why we should follow the Gove approach in improving the state sector. He did a splendid job in raising standards.
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Not going to happen. ''

    You clearly know your stuff Mr Capitano, but I venture to suggest that a labour candidate who despises his own leader and what he stands for is a difficult person to vote for.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,079
    MaxPB said:

    Witney was held by a Labour MP when Dave was the Tory candidate, now look at how safe a Tory seat it is. #AwesomeDave #ToriesGoingToMissHim

    Lol, bloody turncoat Woodward. Didn't he defect back after a while?
    Don't think so, but his wikipedia page includes this funny titbit

    In March 2001, he was said to be the only Labour MP with a butler.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,634

    AndyJS said:

    Why are grammar schools so unpopular with the privately educated?

    A rhetorical question I guess.

    Because we look at the evidence, and the evidence stacks up against grammar schools. They only help a few, not all.
    Whereas the Comprehensive system helps no one as it works on the principle of dragging everyone down to the lowest common denominator. .

    That's why we should follow the Gove approach in improving the state sector. He did a splendid job in raising standards.
    Gove has backed the reforms.
  • Options

    The debate on Greening's statement suggests getting grammar schools through the Commons is going to be very tough. And of course the Lords would just throw it back anyway.

    So what is May up to here? Is it virtue signalling, or a casus electionis?

    Or simple over-reach? I suspect that might be the simplest explanation.
  • Options
    TonyETonyE Posts: 938
    AndyJS said:

    Meanwhile, back on the subject of grammar schools:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/775354495907794944

    Will the SNP be voting? If not the Tory majority rises to about 68.
    That will be one less vote for Simpson next time then. He's my MP.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,079
    Cyclefree said:

    Regardless of what one thinks of Cameron himself, I think it a shame that Cameron is not staying on as an MP until the next election. Being an MP is an honourable form of public service and I'd have thought his constituents and Parliament itself would benefit from having his experience. He could, for instance, use his time to focus on some of the issues he touched on as PM e.g. his ideas re the Big Society or on how to attack the roots of Islamist extremism within our society.

    It would be good to set an example that being a politician is not just about reaching the heights and that you can achieve and contribute even after being at the top table. It seems to me to be a pity that those with experience are so unwilling to pass it on and share it, often viewing it only as something to be monetized for their own benefit. Even if he disagrees with May there are plenty of things he can do for his constituents without making his disagreements public.

    Ah well...

    Yes, not being PM anymore need not be the end of being an MP. I know he didn't exactly put his full weight into it, but I liked that Brown stuck around for a whole parliament.
  • Options
    A defeat in the Lords would be a good pretext for an early election. A defeat in the Commons as a result of a backbench rebellion would not.
  • Options
    Remain vote was around 70% in Witney. Will be a big test for the Lib Dem's strategy of opposing Brexit given the good council results recently. If they can take second and reduce that majority a lot, that's a great result.
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    And the blue candidate for Witney is – step forward TSE…

    Oh God no. For starters, I'd make a very poor candidate for an Oxfordshire seat.
    Do '90s music references not go down well in Oxfordshire then? You should stand, there's No Limit to your talents.
    The upstarts in Oxford don't like people reminding them they don't have the finest university in the UK.
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Cameron is still young enough to return as PM, should he find writing up his diaries and spending more time with his kids too tiresome.
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    AndyJS said:

    Why are grammar schools so unpopular with the privately educated?

    A rhetorical question I guess.

    Because we look at the evidence, and the evidence stacks up against grammar schools. They only help a few, not all.
    Whereas the Comprehensive system helps no one as it works on the principle of dragging everyone down to the lowest common denominator. .

    That's why we should follow the Gove approach in improving the state sector. He did a splendid job in raising standards.
    Gove has backed the reforms.
    Have you heard his speech today? He's hedging his bets.
  • Options
    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215

    JohnO said:

    Sandpit said:

    So who do the Tories want to get into Parliament with a safe seat? Someone local or someone who worked closely with DC and wants to succeed him. I guess it's a year or two early for the MEPs to be fighting over it.

    JohnO, Esther McVey, and Cyclefree are on my short list
    Try for an all male shortlist.
    How far is Witney from your alma mater?
    Can't be more than 15 miles, surely and I was elected to Oxford City Council in 1979 so there's a really firm local link. In addition, the next MP should be older, wise, sagacious, measured and mature.
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Witney was held by a Labour MP when Dave was the Tory candidate, now look at how safe a Tory seat it is. #AwesomeDave #ToriesGoingToMissHim

    Lol, bloody turncoat Woodward. Didn't he defect back after a while?
    Don't think so, but his wikipedia page includes this funny titbit

    In March 2001, he was said to be the only Labour MP with a butler.
    Cameron's maiden speech:

    Since 1945, west Oxfordshire has been represented by Sir Douglas Dodds-Parker, who parachuted into France in the 1940s; by Neil Marten, who served with the special forces during the war before embarking on a long and distinguished ministerial career; and by Douglas Hurd, now Lord Hurd, who was an outstanding Foreign Secretary. This brings me neatly to the hon. Member for St. Helens, South (Mr. Woodward).

    I know that it is traditional to pay tribute to one's immediate predecessor, and I have no hesitation in saying that I agreed with almost everything that he said in the first half of the previous Parliament, when he was a trenchant critic of the Government. It was only when he moved to the Labour Benches and supported that Government that our views started to diverge. I know that he worked hard for people in west Oxfordshire and must have felt strongly to leave such a magnificent constituency with such friendly and welcoming people. However, he remains a constituent, and a not insignificant local employer--not least in the area of domestic service. We are, in fact, quite close neighbours. On a clear day, from the hill behind my cottage, I can almost see some of the glittering spires of his great house.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    TonyE said:

    AndyJS said:

    Meanwhile, back on the subject of grammar schools:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/775354495907794944

    Will the SNP be voting? If not the Tory majority rises to about 68.
    That will be one less vote for Simpson next time then. He's my MP.
    Why do these MPs never talk about how unfair it is to have selection by postcode? That doesn't seem to bother them for some reason.
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Sandpit said:

    So who do the Tories want to get into Parliament with a safe seat? Someone local or someone who worked closely with DC and wants to succeed him. I guess it's a year or two early for the MEPs to be fighting over it.

    JohnO, Esther McVey, and Cyclefree are on my short list
    Mrs CycleFree would top my selection list. A knowledgeable, tough lady, prepared to speak her mind.... hmmm this is the Witney Conservative Party we are talking about. She doesn't have a hope in hell.
  • Options

    The debate on Greening's statement suggests getting grammar schools through the Commons is going to be very tough. And of course the Lords would just throw it back anyway.

    So what is May up to here? Is it virtue signalling, or a casus electionis?

    Red meat whilst Brexit is sorted out.

    As Mike says, Grammar schools are for Mrs May what plans to ban fox hunting was for Tony Blair.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,634

    MaxPB said:

    AndyJS said:

    Why are grammar schools so unpopular with the privately educated?

    A rhetorical question I guess.

    Because we look at the evidence, and the evidence stacks up against grammar schools. They only help a few, not all.
    Whereas the Comprehensive system helps no one as it works on the principle of dragging everyone down to the lowest common denominator. .

    That's why we should follow the Gove approach in improving the state sector. He did a splendid job in raising standards.
    Gove has backed the reforms.
    Have you heard his speech today? He's hedging his bets.
    Well tbh, I think he just wants his seat at the top table is back.
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    AndyJS said:

    Why are grammar schools so unpopular with the privately educated?

    A rhetorical question I guess.

    Because we look at the evidence, and the evidence stacks up against grammar schools. They only help a few, not all.
    Whereas the Comprehensive system helps no one as it works on the principle of dragging everyone down to the lowest common denominator. .

    The state education is of no concern to them, Richard. They have parents with the means to send them to fee paying schools. It's only the plebs who have to worry about the quality of state education.
    9/10 of the world's best education systems are "comprehensive". I really can't understand why some smart people want to ignore the data.
  • Options

    The debate on Greening's statement suggests getting grammar schools through the Commons is going to be very tough. And of course the Lords would just throw it back anyway.

    So what is May up to here? Is it virtue signalling, or a casus electionis?

    Or simple over-reach? I suspect that might be the simplest explanation.
    Maybe she needs a master strategist.
  • Options
    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    MaxPB said:

    Witney was held by a Labour MP when Dave was the Tory candidate, now look at how safe a Tory seat it is. #AwesomeDave #ToriesGoingToMissHim

    Lol, bloody turncoat Woodward. Didn't he defect back after a while?
    No, ghastly creature became a Cabinet Minister (NI) under Brown. But Emma Nicholson has returned to the fold.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,079

    Sandpit said:

    So who do the Tories want to get into Parliament with a safe seat? Someone local or someone who worked closely with DC and wants to succeed him. I guess it's a year or two early for the MEPs to be fighting over it.

    JohnO, Esther McVey, and Cyclefree are on my short list
    Mrs CycleFree would top my selection list. A knowledgeable, tough lady, prepared to speak her mind.... hmmm this is the Witney Conservative Party we are talking about. She doesn't have a hope in hell.
    Is anyone a 55+ white male upper middle class fan of fox hunting? It's so hard to find them for such a seat.
  • Options
    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    Sandpit said:

    So who do the Tories want to get into Parliament with a safe seat? Someone local or someone who worked closely with DC and wants to succeed him. I guess it's a year or two early for the MEPs to be fighting over it.

    JohnO, Esther McVey, and Cyclefree are on my short list
    Try for an all male shortlist.
    How far is Witney from your alma mater?
    Can't be more than 15 miles, surely and I was elected to Oxford City Council in 1979 so there's a really firm local link. In addition, the next MP should be older, wise, sagacious, measured and mature.
    If you aren't the Tory candidate for Witney, it'll be a bigger outrage than your lack of peerage and my lack of a GCMG in Dave's resignation honours
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Seeing off Brown, Salmond, Miliband, Clegg, Balls on one hand, but fouling up over EU referendum 13 months after winning a Tory majority.

    Perhaps he feels that May is unravelling some of his policies, and he can't back her as she changes tack.
  • Options

    The debate on Greening's statement suggests getting grammar schools through the Commons is going to be very tough. And of course the Lords would just throw it back anyway.

    So what is May up to here? Is it virtue signalling, or a casus electionis?

    Or simple over-reach? I suspect that might be the simplest explanation.
    Maybe she needs a master strategist.
    The indications are increasingly suggesting that she does, but perhaps there is method in some of the madder-looking initiatives. We shall see.
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    AndyJS said:

    Why are grammar schools so unpopular with the privately educated?

    A rhetorical question I guess.

    Because we look at the evidence, and the evidence stacks up against grammar schools. They only help a few, not all.
    Whereas the Comprehensive system helps no one as it works on the principle of dragging everyone down to the lowest common denominator. .

    That's why we should follow the Gove approach in improving the state sector. He did a splendid job in raising standards.
    Gove has backed the reforms.
    Have you heard his speech today? He's hedging his bets.
    Well tbh, I think he just wants his seat at the top table is back.
    I heard him speak last year, on both prison reform and on improving schools, Gove passionately believes in his reforms and what he did/wants to do.
  • Options
    TonyETonyE Posts: 938
    AndyJS said:

    TonyE said:

    AndyJS said:

    Meanwhile, back on the subject of grammar schools:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/775354495907794944

    Will the SNP be voting? If not the Tory majority rises to about 68.
    That will be one less vote for Simpson next time then. He's my MP.
    Why do these MPs never talk about how unfair it is to have selection by postcode? That doesn't seem to bother them for some reason.
    I've been less than impressed with the education my three boys have received so far in the state sector - it's been nearly as bad as my own education.

    The other thing I have noticed is that the state education sector is the only place where violence is not only condoned, but the perpetrators continually protected as 'victims' and the real victims largely told that they have to 'toughen up' to such things. Education needs a complete change of ethos.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    MaxPB said:

    David Cameron took the Tory party from fewer than 200 MPs to a majority government whilst destroying the Lib Dems and driving Labour mad.

    I for one will remember David Cameron very fondly.

    I think most of us will.
    His resignation today shows just how much integrity he possess by moving on and seeking new challenges. How anyone can expect a former Prime Minister to sit on the back benches is just unrealistic and a dreadful waste of the skills acquired in the post of Prime Minister.

    I always supported David Cameron who was an excellent PM and I hope he goes on to a succesfull second career, he is only 49.

    How about head of NATO
    We were all expecting him not to have lied to the house of commons when repeatedly asked if he would stay on as Prime Minister after a No vote.
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    AndyJS said:

    Why are grammar schools so unpopular with the privately educated?

    A rhetorical question I guess.

    Because we look at the evidence, and the evidence stacks up against grammar schools. They only help a few, not all.
    Whereas the Comprehensive system helps no one as it works on the principle of dragging everyone down to the lowest common denominator. .

    The state education is of no concern to them, Richard. They have parents with the means to send them to fee paying schools. It's only the plebs who have to worry about the quality of state education.
    And I guess you were intelligent enough to pass a 11/13+ exam.

    But you weren't the problem. The 'problem' is the ~15-20% of children who are leaving school functionally illiterate and/or innumerate, and their consequent lack of opportunities.

    This is where public education policy needs to be concentrating.

    I'm not against grammar schools, but they need to be part of a system where more, not less, political effort and public money is spent on the kids who need help. This policy is not that, and just makes more of a mess of an already-messy education system.

    http://www.literacytrust.org.uk/adult_literacy/illiterate_adults_in_england
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,634

    MaxPB said:

    AndyJS said:

    Why are grammar schools so unpopular with the privately educated?

    A rhetorical question I guess.

    Because we look at the evidence, and the evidence stacks up against grammar schools. They only help a few, not all.
    Whereas the Comprehensive system helps no one as it works on the principle of dragging everyone down to the lowest common denominator. .

    The state education is of no concern to them, Richard. They have parents with the means to send them to fee paying schools. It's only the plebs who have to worry about the quality of state education.
    9/10 of the world's best education systems are "comprehensive". I really can't understand why some smart people want to ignore the data.
    Comprehensive in name only. Switzerland, Germany, Korea and Finland have selection of sorts, just not based on exams but on school performance. Parents are guided to make the right choice for their children and they don't have stupid university targets which lead to pointless courses.
  • Options
    I think this is more to do with Oxford University than the Bullingdon club. :lol:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/775363508053487616
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,634

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    AndyJS said:

    Why are grammar schools so unpopular with the privately educated?

    A rhetorical question I guess.

    Because we look at the evidence, and the evidence stacks up against grammar schools. They only help a few, not all.
    Whereas the Comprehensive system helps no one as it works on the principle of dragging everyone down to the lowest common denominator. .

    That's why we should follow the Gove approach in improving the state sector. He did a splendid job in raising standards.
    Gove has backed the reforms.
    Have you heard his speech today? He's hedging his bets.
    Well tbh, I think he just wants his seat at the top table is back.
    I heard him speak last year, on both prison reform and on improving schools, Gove passionately believes in his reforms and what he did/wants to do.
    I was extremely disappointed when May backed away from Gove's prison reforms. Extremely disappointed.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,973

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    AndyJS said:

    Why are grammar schools so unpopular with the privately educated?

    A rhetorical question I guess.

    Because we look at the evidence, and the evidence stacks up against grammar schools. They only help a few, not all.
    Whereas the Comprehensive system helps no one as it works on the principle of dragging everyone down to the lowest common denominator. .

    That's why we should follow the Gove approach in improving the state sector. He did a splendid job in raising standards.
    Gove has backed the reforms.
    Have you heard his speech today? He's hedging his bets.
    Well tbh, I think he just wants his seat at the top table is back.
    I heard him speak last year, on both prison reform and on improving schools, Gove passionately believes in his reforms and what he did/wants to do.
    Gove's prison reforms really need to happen, and his education reforms to continue.
  • Options

    MaxPB said:

    AndyJS said:

    Why are grammar schools so unpopular with the privately educated?

    A rhetorical question I guess.

    Because we look at the evidence, and the evidence stacks up against grammar schools. They only help a few, not all.
    Whereas the Comprehensive system helps no one as it works on the principle of dragging everyone down to the lowest common denominator. .

    The state education is of no concern to them, Richard. They have parents with the means to send them to fee paying schools. It's only the plebs who have to worry about the quality of state education.
    And I guess you were intelligent enough to pass a 11/13+ exam.

    But you weren't the problem. The 'problem' is the ~15-20% of children who are leaving school functionally illiterate and/or innumerate, and their consequent lack of opportunities.

    This is where public education policy needs to be concentrating.

    I'm not against grammar schools, but they need to be part of a system where more, not less, political effort and public money is spent on the kids who need help. This policy is not that, and just makes more of a mess of an already-messy education system.

    http://www.literacytrust.org.uk/adult_literacy/illiterate_adults_in_england
    I am not fully convinced by the mess exactly, but I agree with what I call the "distraction" argument whereby the focus is taken away from the underachievers.
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    AndyJS said:

    Why are grammar schools so unpopular with the privately educated?

    A rhetorical question I guess.

    Because we look at the evidence, and the evidence stacks up against grammar schools. They only help a few, not all.
    Whereas the Comprehensive system helps no one as it works on the principle of dragging everyone down to the lowest common denominator. .

    That's why we should follow the Gove approach in improving the state sector. He did a splendid job in raising standards.
    Gove has backed the reforms.
    Have you heard his speech today? He's hedging his bets.
    Well tbh, I think he just wants his seat at the top table is back.
    I heard him speak last year, on both prison reform and on improving schools, Gove passionately believes in his reforms and what he did/wants to do.
    I was extremely disappointed when May backed away from Gove's prison reforms. Extremely disappointed.
    Me too.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,031
    edited September 2016

    who will be the Tory candidate?

    In spite of Alistair Meek's Ill informed comments about him, I would very much like to see Dan Hannan considered. There are few Tory politicians around at the moment who have such a comprehensive vision for how our political system and society can be reformed and improved. The idea that he is monomaniacal just shows the depths of Meek's ignorance.
  • Options

    I think this is more to do with Oxford University than the Bullingdon club. :lol:

    They're all afraid it will kill their chances of becoming PM.
  • Options

    The debate on Greening's statement suggests getting grammar schools through the Commons is going to be very tough. And of course the Lords would just throw it back anyway.

    So what is May up to here? Is it virtue signalling, or a casus electionis?

    Or simple over-reach? I suspect that might be the simplest explanation.
    Maybe she needs a master strategist.
    The indications are increasingly suggesting that she does, but perhaps there is method in some of the madder-looking initiatives. We shall see.
    You say initiatives, plural, but what else do you have in mind?
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    AndyJS said:

    Why are grammar schools so unpopular with the privately educated?

    A rhetorical question I guess.

    Because we look at the evidence, and the evidence stacks up against grammar schools. They only help a few, not all.
    Whereas the Comprehensive system helps no one as it works on the principle of dragging everyone down to the lowest common denominator. .

    That's why we should follow the Gove approach in improving the state sector. He did a splendid job in raising standards.
    Gove has backed the reforms.
    Have you heard his speech today? He's hedging his bets.
    Well tbh, I think he just wants his seat at the top table is back.
    I heard him speak last year, on both prison reform and on improving schools, Gove passionately believes in his reforms and what he did/wants to do.
    Gove's prison reforms really need to happen, and his education reforms to continue.
    Not happening under Mrs May.

    Christ, I was so proud when Gove said this.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/01/26/michael-gove-tells-tory-mp-his-christianity-informs-prison-policy-i-believe-in-redemption_n_9076940.html
  • Options

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    AndyJS said:

    Why are grammar schools so unpopular with the privately educated?

    A rhetorical question I guess.

    Because we look at the evidence, and the evidence stacks up against grammar schools. They only help a few, not all.
    Whereas the Comprehensive system helps no one as it works on the principle of dragging everyone down to the lowest common denominator. .

    That's why we should follow the Gove approach in improving the state sector. He did a splendid job in raising standards.
    Gove has backed the reforms.
    Have you heard his speech today? He's hedging his bets.
    Well tbh, I think he just wants his seat at the top table is back.
    I heard him speak last year, on both prison reform and on improving schools, Gove passionately believes in his reforms and what he did/wants to do.
    I doubt Gove has an ideological objection to academic selection:

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2011/dec/17/gove-private-school-academies-selection

    Really, no-one really questions the benefits of grouping together the able in classes within the same school, or without for music and sport, and glosses over that in the private sector, so I think this debate is rather more nuanced than is made out.

    The litmus test for me is whether the reforms would widen merit and access to smart, poorer pupils who are currently locked out, and lead to a better educated populace overall.

    That probably doesn't mean an exact return to the old system and that is not what is on offer anyway.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,634

    MaxPB said:

    AndyJS said:

    Why are grammar schools so unpopular with the privately educated?

    A rhetorical question I guess.

    Because we look at the evidence, and the evidence stacks up against grammar schools. They only help a few, not all.
    Whereas the Comprehensive system helps no one as it works on the principle of dragging everyone down to the lowest common denominator. .

    The state education is of no concern to them, Richard. They have parents with the means to send them to fee paying schools. It's only the plebs who have to worry about the quality of state education.
    And I guess you were intelligent enough to pass a 11/13+ exam.

    But you weren't the problem. The 'problem' is the ~15-20% of children who are leaving school functionally illiterate and/or innumerate, and their consequent lack of opportunities.

    This is where public education policy needs to be concentrating.

    I'm not against grammar schools, but they need to be part of a system where more, not less, political effort and public money is spent on the kids who need help. This policy is not that, and just makes more of a mess of an already-messy education system.

    http://www.literacytrust.org.uk/adult_literacy/illiterate_adults_in_england
    I've said time and again that grammar schools are just part of the solution, we need schools for all kinds of excellence and even schools to ensure that people without excellence are able to find a viable career option.

    The government should have a major rethink of education. I outlined in a post early last week what I think we should have, I'll try and find it, there was wide approval!
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited September 2016
    Cyclefree said:

    ... He could, for instance, use his time to focus on some of the issues he touched on as PM e.g. his ideas re the Big Society or on how to attack the roots of Islamist extremism within our society. ...

    Perhaps the reason he doesn't want to stay on and pursue those things that were apparently so close to his heart is that he was never interested in public service to begin with and never actually believed in those ideas.

    If he now tries to make a fortune out of his time as PM, as did Blair, I shall know, beyond doubt or argument, that my opinion of Cameron was correct all along.
  • Options

    who will be the Tory candidate?

    In spite of Alistair Meek's Ill informed comments about him, I would very much like to see Dan Hannan considered. There are few Tory politicians around at the moment who have such a comprehensive vision for how our political system and society can be reformed and improved. The idea that he is monomaniacal just shows the depths of Meek's ignorance.
    As much as I respect his thinking (and rhetorical skills), I struggle to see Hannan in a cabinet. Perhaps he will prove me wrong. Is there a mayoralty that would suit?
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    AndyJS said:

    Why are grammar schools so unpopular with the privately educated?

    A rhetorical question I guess.

    Because we look at the evidence, and the evidence stacks up against grammar schools. They only help a few, not all.
    Whereas the Comprehensive system helps no one as it works on the principle of dragging everyone down to the lowest common denominator. .

    That's why we should follow the Gove approach in improving the state sector. He did a splendid job in raising standards.
    Gove has backed the reforms.
    Have you heard his speech today? He's hedging his bets.
    Well tbh, I think he just wants his seat at the top table is back.
    I heard him speak last year, on both prison reform and on improving schools, Gove passionately believes in his reforms and what he did/wants to do.
    Gove's prison reforms really need to happen, and his education reforms to continue.
    Not happening under Mrs May.

    Christ, I was so proud when Gove said this.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/01/26/michael-gove-tells-tory-mp-his-christianity-informs-prison-policy-i-believe-in-redemption_n_9076940.html
    I haven't seen anything about May quashing the prison reforms - source please.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,634
    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    AndyJS said:

    Why are grammar schools so unpopular with the privately educated?

    A rhetorical question I guess.

    Because we look at the evidence, and the evidence stacks up against grammar schools. They only help a few, not all.
    Whereas the Comprehensive system helps no one as it works on the principle of dragging everyone down to the lowest common denominator. .

    That's why we should follow the Gove approach in improving the state sector. He did a splendid job in raising standards.
    Gove has backed the reforms.
    Have you heard his speech today? He's hedging his bets.
    Well tbh, I think he just wants his seat at the top table is back.
    I heard him speak last year, on both prison reform and on improving schools, Gove passionately believes in his reforms and what he did/wants to do.
    Gove's prison reforms really need to happen, and his education reforms to continue.
    Unfortunately they are both dead.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,528

    Witney was held by a Labour MP when Dave was the Tory candidate, now look at how safe a Tory seat it is. #AwesomeDave #ToriesGoingToMissHim

    Only through defection, not election!

    Whilst Labour should be odds on in the betting for who comes second, the odds on the LibDems, whilst very long, should not be as long as Labour's odds for actually winning there.
  • Options
    TGOHF said:

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    AndyJS said:

    Why are grammar schools so unpopular with the privately educated?

    A rhetorical question I guess.

    Because we look at the evidence, and the evidence stacks up against grammar schools. They only help a few, not all.
    Whereas the Comprehensive system helps no one as it works on the principle of dragging everyone down to the lowest common denominator. .

    That's why we should follow the Gove approach in improving the state sector. He did a splendid job in raising standards.
    Gove has backed the reforms.
    Have you heard his speech today? He's hedging his bets.
    Well tbh, I think he just wants his seat at the top table is back.
    I heard him speak last year, on both prison reform and on improving schools, Gove passionately believes in his reforms and what he did/wants to do.
    Gove's prison reforms really need to happen, and his education reforms to continue.
    Not happening under Mrs May.

    Christ, I was so proud when Gove said this.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/01/26/michael-gove-tells-tory-mp-his-christianity-informs-prison-policy-i-believe-in-redemption_n_9076940.html
    I haven't seen anything about May quashing the prison reforms - source please.
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/sep/07/liz-truss-puts-prison-reform-plans-put-on-hold
  • Options

    I think this is more to do with Oxford University than the Bullingdon club. :lol:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/775363508053487616

    I hated the Bullingdon, and every other f****** disgrace of an institution. They were a disease in Oxford, protected by the donations they inspired from old members who remembered them fondly.
  • Options

    You say initiatives, plural, but what else do you have in mind?

    My eyebrows have risen a little on each of:

    - The appointments of DD and Liam Fox, apparently without any minders

    - The gratuitous insult to the Chinese over Hinckley Point (the manner of it, not the substance of the decision)

    - The gratuitous rudeness to Osborne

    - Grammar schools, where the parliamentary arithmetic simply doesn't work

    - The possible squandering of political capital whilst she still has lot of it; Heathrow being the obvious example where delay is just going to make any decision even harder.

    Now, maybe these will all turn out OK, but they look like unnecessary hostages to fortune. Making unecessary enemies is rarely clever.
  • Options
    TGOHF said:

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    AndyJS said:

    Why are grammar schools so unpopular with the privately educated?

    A rhetorical question I guess.

    Because we look at the evidence, and the evidence stacks up against grammar schools. They only help a few, not all.
    Whereas the Comprehensive system helps no one as it works on the principle of dragging everyone down to the lowest common denominator. .

    That's why we should follow the Gove approach in improving the state sector. He did a splendid job in raising standards.
    Gove has backed the reforms.
    Have you heard his speech today? He's hedging his bets.
    Well tbh, I think he just wants his seat at the top table is back.
    I heard him speak last year, on both prison reform and on improving schools, Gove passionately believes in his reforms and what he did/wants to do.
    Gove's prison reforms really need to happen, and his education reforms to continue.
    Not happening under Mrs May.

    Christ, I was so proud when Gove said this.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/01/26/michael-gove-tells-tory-mp-his-christianity-informs-prison-policy-i-believe-in-redemption_n_9076940.html
    I haven't seen anything about May quashing the prison reforms - source please.
    Liz Truss shelves Michael Gove's flagship prison reform bill

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/07/liz-truss-shelves-michael-goves-flagship-prison-reform-bill/
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    AndyJS said:

    Why are grammar schools so unpopular with the privately educated?

    A rhetorical question I guess.

    Because we look at the evidence, and the evidence stacks up against grammar schools. They only help a few, not all.
    Whereas the Comprehensive system helps no one as it works on the principle of dragging everyone down to the lowest common denominator. .

    The state education is of no concern to them, Richard. They have parents with the means to send them to fee paying schools. It's only the plebs who have to worry about the quality of state education.
    And I guess you were intelligent enough to pass a 11/13+ exam.

    But you weren't the problem. The 'problem' is the ~15-20% of children who are leaving school functionally illiterate and/or innumerate, and their consequent lack of opportunities.

    This is where public education policy needs to be concentrating.

    I'm not against grammar schools, but they need to be part of a system where more, not less, political effort and public money is spent on the kids who need help. This policy is not that, and just makes more of a mess of an already-messy education system.

    http://www.literacytrust.org.uk/adult_literacy/illiterate_adults_in_england
    I've said time and again that grammar schools are just part of the solution, we need schools for all kinds of excellence and even schools to ensure that people without excellence are able to find a viable career option.

    The government should have a major rethink of education. I outlined in a post early last week what I think we should have, I'll try and find it, there was wide approval!
    Okay thanks, I missed that.

    But I don't know how you can support this new grammar school policy without the rest of the system in place, because it just makes it more likely that the necessary reform will never happen.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    AndyJS said:

    Why are grammar schools so unpopular with the privately educated?

    A rhetorical question I guess.

    Because we look at the evidence, and the evidence stacks up against grammar schools. They only help a few, not all.
    Whereas the Comprehensive system helps no one as it works on the principle of dragging everyone down to the lowest common denominator. .

    That's why we should follow the Gove approach in improving the state sector. He did a splendid job in raising standards.
    Gove has backed the reforms.
    Have you heard his speech today? He's hedging his bets.
    Well tbh, I think he just wants his seat at the top table is back.
    I heard him speak last year, on both prison reform and on improving schools, Gove passionately believes in his reforms and what he did/wants to do.
    Gove's prison reforms really need to happen, and his education reforms to continue.
    Not happening under Mrs May.

    Christ, I was so proud when Gove said this.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/01/26/michael-gove-tells-tory-mp-his-christianity-informs-prison-policy-i-believe-in-redemption_n_9076940.html
    I haven't seen anything about May quashing the prison reforms - source please.
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/sep/07/liz-truss-puts-prison-reform-plans-put-on-hold
    "A Ministry of Justice spokesperson said: “The government remains totally committed to legislating on prison reform and will come forward with plans in due course."

  • Options

    TGOHF said:

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    AndyJS said:

    Why are grammar schools so unpopular with the privately educated?

    A rhetorical question I guess.

    Because we look at the evidence, and the evidence stacks up against grammar schools. They only help a few, not all.
    Whereas the Comprehensive system helps no one as it works on the principle of dragging everyone down to the lowest common denominator. .

    That's why we should follow the Gove approach in improving the state sector. He did a splendid job in raising standards.
    Gove has backed the reforms.
    Have you heard his speech today? He's hedging his bets.
    Well tbh, I think he just wants his seat at the top table is back.
    I heard him speak last year, on both prison reform and on improving schools, Gove passionately believes in his reforms and what he did/wants to do.
    Gove's prison reforms really need to happen, and his education reforms to continue.
    Not happening under Mrs May.

    Christ, I was so proud when Gove said this.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/01/26/michael-gove-tells-tory-mp-his-christianity-informs-prison-policy-i-believe-in-redemption_n_9076940.html
    I haven't seen anything about May quashing the prison reforms - source please.
    Liz Truss shelves Michael Gove's flagship prison reform bill

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/07/liz-truss-shelves-michael-goves-flagship-prison-reform-bill/
    I think it will come back, with a few amendments, as the Theresa May Prison Reform Bill.
  • Options
    chrisb46 said:

    Remain vote was around 70% in Witney. Will be a big test for the Lib Dem's strategy of opposing Brexit given the good council results recently. If they can take second and reduce that majority a lot, that's a great result.

    Witney is coterminous with West Oxon district, which was 53.7% remain
  • Options
    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,885
    edited September 2016

    In spite of Alistair Meek's Ill informed comments about him, I would very much like to see Dan Hannan considered. There are few Tory politicians around at the moment who have such a comprehensive vision for how our political system and society can be reformed and improved. The idea that he is monomaniacal just shows the depths of Meek's ignorance.

    Unless I have utterly misread WOCA activists and indeed Witney voters, Hannan would go down like the proverbial cup of cold sick round here.
  • Options

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    AndyJS said:

    Why are grammar schools so unpopular with the privately educated?

    A rhetorical question I guess.

    Because we look at the evidence, and the evidence stacks up against grammar schools. They only help a few, not all.
    Whereas the Comprehensive system helps no one as it works on the principle of dragging everyone down to the lowest common denominator. .

    That's why we should follow the Gove approach in improving the state sector. He did a splendid job in raising standards.
    Gove has backed the reforms.
    Have you heard his speech today? He's hedging his bets.
    Well tbh, I think he just wants his seat at the top table is back.
    I heard him speak last year, on both prison reform and on improving schools, Gove passionately believes in his reforms and what he did/wants to do.
    Gove's prison reforms really need to happen, and his education reforms to continue.
    Not happening under Mrs May.

    Christ, I was so proud when Gove said this.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/01/26/michael-gove-tells-tory-mp-his-christianity-informs-prison-policy-i-believe-in-redemption_n_9076940.html
    There is more alignment on this thread than perhaps we acknowledge. The important thing is perhaps less "grammar schools" than the broader ecosystem in which they exist.

    But there is worryingly little meat on this.

    Alongside that we have backing away from the prison reforms, withdrawl of the devolution offer to the NE (admittedly because of local non co-operation, but the response from the govt was OK, go do one), the refusal to put the National Infrastructure Board on a statutory basis...

    ...the early signs are not great.
This discussion has been closed.