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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This week’s PB/Polling Matters TV show

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  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,423
    Charles said:

    The really frustrating thing about the US elections is that they have some really serious and quality politicians.

    For instance I watched a Hard Talk interview between Sarah Montague and Lindsey Graham. He's really very very impressive.

    (Good) American politics tends to be local, I think. "Elmer Chickenshit working hard for the 14th District"
  • Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    LEAVE 52%
    REMAIN 48%

    It's the PB equivalent of yelling MORNINGTON CRESCENT! Game over. No more discussion.

    Yup.

    The people have spoken.

    Don't you love the smell of democracy in the morning?
    I don't recall that democracy requires the suppression of all dissenting opinion after a vote.
    And I don't recall that democracy empowers the losers with decision making capabilities. Or did I miss Ed Miliband becoming a cabinet minister after 2015 GE?
    Miliband stopped the bombing of Syria, albeit unintentionally. When there is a close result, the losers get a say.
  • RobD said:

    nunu said:

    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    Have I missed a debate? :o

    A forum.

    The media consensus is this:
    https://twitter.com/jonathanchait/status/773712777529688068
    They are not happy that Trump got away with it.
    Maybe the forum wasn't as much of a disaster for Trump as I thought.

    There is a hardcore that will vote for Trump no matter what probably about 40% but the quotes the main news channels are using are not good for him. Believe me that take their oil line will lose him moderate Republicans.
    Wishful thinking. Trump's 'take the oil' has been a common refrain since the primaries. He's winning the race.
    I don't think he's winning... he certainly has closed the gap though.
    That's right. Nate's track record is good:
    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo
    Could still be tight: FL and OH to be watched.
  • philiph said:

    Trump may well be right in his objectives regarding Putin, although quite possibly for the wrong reasons.

    The largest geopolitical threat to US is probably the closer links between Russia and China who share a hatred of American domination in influence, trade, military and finance. They now act together in a way premeditated to overturn the American position.

    If Trump managed to fracture that Russia China axis by altering the US Russia relationship he would probably serve his nations interests well.

    I don't think Putin can be appeased without surrendering entire tracts of terrority to him.

    And I wouldn't trust him even then: he runs a highly corrupt mafia state and has his fingerprints on multiple state assassinations and murders, some of them in this country.
  • Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    Have I missed a debate? :o

    A forum.

    The media consensus is this:
    https://twitter.com/jonathanchait/status/773712777529688068
    They are not happy that Trump got away with it.
    Maybe the forum wasn't as much of a disaster for Trump as I thought.

    Lauer is the messenger. And message is that Hillary is a dud and a crook.
  • There is much similarity in the US election and the Labour Party leadership election.

    America is fecked whoever wins and so Labour is with their leadership election

    And the Conservatives? Remember Theresa May is Prime Minister almost by default. Her record as Home Secretary was at best mediocre and included a failure to control immigration and the Border Force farce. She is leader only because Michael Gove knifed Boris and then blew his own foot off; Leadsom was swift-boated because the men in grey suits were afraid to let the members vote. As you may have seen at PMQs yesterday, she barely scraped a score draw against the worst Leader of the Opposition since Ed Miliband.
  • Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    LEAVE 52%
    REMAIN 48%

    It's the PB equivalent of yelling MORNINGTON CRESCENT! Game over. No more discussion.

    Yup.

    The people have spoken.

    Don't you love the smell of democracy in the morning?
    I don't recall that democracy requires the suppression of all dissenting opinion after a vote.
    And I don't recall that democracy empowers the losers with decision making capabilities.
    One of the losers is Prime Minister remember?
    Enacting the policy of the winners.

    Only moaners seem to be trying to get in her way.

    Brexit means Brexit.
    Brexit means:

    (1) Technical exit from the EU and its political institutions
    (2) Quitting the jurisdiction of the ECJ
    (3) Freedom to make our own trade deals, which means leaving the customs union
    (4) Repatriation of regional policy, CAP and CFP
    (5) Additional restrictions on free movement over and above what Cameron secured in February (probably including 'nominal' freedom for EU citizens to come here but with a job offer needed first and possibly a bond paid by the employer)
    (6) Some budget savings that will probably be negotiated away to minor savings to ensure the above

    I doubt we will fully 'leave' the single market, and this will be covered off through a bilateral as it is for Switzerland as well as Iceland/Norway etc.

    The closest match would be EEA/EFTA but i expect HMG are looking for a bespoke deal where they still get a form of input into some rules making, particularly on services.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,721
    edited September 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    Third like Murray in SPOTY.

    Don't worry. If Murray loses in the US Open quarter finals, the British public will elevate him to SPOTY.

    4-4 fifth set.

    Murray fell apart after the PA system made a bleep in the middle of a point in the fourth set when he was coasting along. :(
    Murray now lost his serve and 6-- down in the fifth set. SPOTY looms. Plucky Brit loser.
    Who has won both Wimbledon and the Olympics this year!
    Murray (the Scot) loses in the Quarter Finals. SPOTY guaranteed.
    He already has one U.S. Open Championship to his name even if he missed out this year but it is hard to see past Mo Farah for SPOTY
    Farah has done the double plenty of times before and not come close.
    It is far easier to round and round like a hamster compared to skill required to get a ball over the net and inside the lines. He should not be within a country mile.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    There is much similarity in the US election and the Labour Party leadership election.

    America is fecked whoever wins and so Labour is with their leadership election

    And the Conservatives? Remember Theresa May is Prime Minister almost by default. Her record as Home Secretary was at best mediocre and included a failure to control immigration and the Border Force farce. She is leader only because Michael Gove knifed Boris and then blew his own foot off; Leadsom was swift-boated because the men in grey suits were afraid to let the members vote. As you may have seen at PMQs yesterday, she barely scraped a score draw against the worst Leader of the Opposition since Ed Miliband.
    As always its a matter of perception. I don't think you can be judging Mrs May just yet. .. and no one can control immigration whilst we are within the EU,

    I didn't hear all of PMQ's , the second half of Corbyn only, I thought Mrs May duffed him up like a kipper
  • City A.M.: Government shelves Land Registry sell-off. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwy7-98C0

    It did threaten the Conservative core vote, in terms of threatening the national pastime of finding out what your neighbour's home sold for without having to pay for the privilege.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,721
    Charles said:

    The really frustrating thing about the US elections is that they have some really serious and quality politicians.

    For instance I watched a Hard Talk interview between Sarah Montague and Lindsey Graham. He's really very very impressive.

    He came across really well, as you say how do they end up with turkeys slugging it out at the top, I know it is down to money.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    There is much similarity in the US election and the Labour Party leadership election.

    America is fecked whoever wins and so Labour is with their leadership election

    And the Conservatives? Remember Theresa May is Prime Minister almost by default. Her record as Home Secretary was at best mediocre and included a failure to control immigration and the Border Force farce. She is leader only because Michael Gove knifed Boris and then blew his own foot off; Leadsom was swift-boated because the men in grey suits were afraid to let the members vote. As you may have seen at PMQs yesterday, she barely scraped a score draw against the worst Leader of the Opposition since Ed Miliband.
    As always its a matter of perception. I don't think you can be judging Mrs May just yet. .. and no one can control immigration whilst we are within the EU,

    I didn't hear all of PMQ's , the second half of Corbyn only, I thought Mrs May duffed him up like a kipper
    Corbyn was marmalised, if anything May needs to tone it down as the gleeful annihilation is a little too much.
  • There is much similarity in the US election and the Labour Party leadership election.

    America is fecked whoever wins and so Labour is with their leadership election

    And the Conservatives? Remember Theresa May is Prime Minister almost by default. Her record as Home Secretary was at best mediocre and included a failure to control immigration and the Border Force farce. She is leader only because Michael Gove knifed Boris and then blew his own foot off; Leadsom was swift-boated because the men in grey suits were afraid to let the members vote. As you may have seen at PMQs yesterday, she barely scraped a score draw against the worst Leader of the Opposition since Ed Miliband.
    As always its a matter of perception. I don't think you can be judging Mrs May just yet. .. and no one can control immigration whilst we are within the EU,

    I didn't hear all of PMQ's , the second half of Corbyn only, I thought Mrs May duffed him up like a kipper
    Read the pb thread from yesterday. No-one was impressed.
  • Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    Have I missed a debate? :o

    A forum.

    The media consensus is this:
    https://twitter.com/jonathanchait/status/773712777529688068
    They are not happy that Trump got away with it.
    Maybe the forum wasn't as much of a disaster for Trump as I thought.

    Lauer is the messenger. And message is that Hillary is a dud and a crook.
    Yes she is. Luckily for her, Donald Trump is the Republican candidate.
  • City A.M.: Government shelves Land Registry sell-off. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwy7-98C0

    It did threaten the Conservative core vote, in terms of threatening the national pastime of finding out what your neighbour's home sold for without having to pay for the privilege.

    It was a stupid idea and good that it has been parked over in that very long grass over there.
  • Speedy said:
    Civil war in the party as J Cornyn fuels division.

    Without the picture it would be easy to read that the wrong way.

  • NEW THREAD

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654

    City A.M.: Government shelves Land Registry sell-off. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwy7-98C0

    It did threaten the Conservative core vote, in terms of threatening the national pastime of finding out what your neighbour's home sold for without having to pay for the privilege.

    It was a stupid idea and good that it has been parked over in that very long grass over there.
    Thank God for that.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    The Sun have reported the move out of Parliament in some style:

    Sir Winston Churchill died 51 years ago but an parliament insider said his poo may still be in the sewage system because the pipes are so old.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1744926/politicians-have-to-leave-the-houses-of-parliament-for-five-years-while-10billion-refurb-takes-place/

    The Sun have reported the move out of Parliament in some style:

    Sir Winston Churchill died 51 years ago but an parliament insider said his poo may still be in the sewage system because the pipes are so old.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1744926/politicians-have-to-leave-the-houses-of-parliament-for-five-years-while-10billion-refurb-takes-place/

    £10bn?! I guess this is what happens when you stop the cheap Polish builders from coming here.
    Am always very dubious about numbers like that (I'd thought it was 1.5bn) they've probably included rent for QEII at the premium daily rate, etc, to get to it.

    It will be expensive because it's a World Heritage site but it's worth doing right
    Surely Parliament could pass a law declaring they will be occupying the QEII centre rent-free? :)
    Money just going in circles (it's govt owned) but journos don't care
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