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  • Charles said:

    MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    ‘White people need to take responsibility... they are privileged through racism’: Black Lives Matter issues inflammatory Twitter statement as it confirms all NINE activists who brought chaos London City Airport are white

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775517/Protesters-storm-runway-London-City-Airport-bringing-flights-standstill-stranding-thousands-passengers.html

    White Power...no shit that not it....White Solidarity....

    Come on Met Police, make an example of these jumped-up middle class idiots or they'll keep doing this.

    Charge them with endangering aircraft, haul them in front of a magistrate in the morning and then remanded to see a judge and jury a few months down the line. That will give them some thinking time to decide if it was all worth it.
    The airport need to take civil action against the org and the individuals for recovery of losses.
    Indeed, more than 120 flights were delayed or cancelled, that adds up to a pretty penny if this matter is pursued through the courts.
    What happened the last time McDonalds tried that?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McLibel_case
    Really don’t think libel is comparable to these louts appropriating someone else’s struggle...!
  • F1 engineer makes 'first flat-pack truck'

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/headlines/37285399
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,831

    TOPPING said:

    @Topping

    "... there has to be some allowance for civil disobedience."

    Really? Which laws would you say it is OK to break if someone is doing so for a political purpose?

    spoiling your census form because women don't have a vote?
    Women do have the vote, Mr. Topping. So do please try again. You are the one who said there should be allowances for people who want to break the law from a political motive. I am just trying to establish what boundaries you would put on your idea, if any?
    They didn't in 1911.

    How about sitting in front of the HS2 bulldozers?
  • @Sean Fear - I seem to recall reading somewhere that it was notoriously violent in the Stone Age.

    Violence was the leading cause of death of all men and you'd be lucky to make it to 35, even if you didn't succumb to disease, famine or pestilence.

    The most often quoted figures is a third of deaths were violent ones.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:



    I think polygamy was really a response to societies where sudden violent deaths were common among young men, and women (often with infant children) had to find husbands to survive (hence, the whole business in the Old Testament about having to marry your brother's widow).

    My great-grandfather married his first cousin's widow (and took on 2 young children)
    Henry VIII married his brother's widow and look at the fuss that caused.
  • rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh Theresa, why did you employ him in the first place, everyone knows he's a preening bell end.

    Theresa May rebukes David Davis over warning that UK could leave the single market

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/06/theresa-may-rebukes-david-davis-over-warning-that-uk-could-leave/


    Bickering between May and Davis I see...

    Westminster has been given their warning by the electorate but it appears they aren't listening. The 17m may have no choice but to elect a UKIP government to get Brexit done...
    I'm sorry, but a fair number of the 52% (including me) wanted soft Brexit.
    They should have voted Remain and let the malcontent Leavers work to sweeten Cameron's 'renegotiation' until it became acceptable to them. Voting Leave for a soft Brexit was playing with fire.
    The 17m are a wide coalition, there are many Brexits. The 16m were more sure what they wanted. If it had been a 'preferendum' the result would have been different.
    I don't think that's true. The 16m were split between the actually-pro-EU and the "yeah, I guess".
    Exactly. Perhaps 15% were pro-EU, some were pro-status quo, so were "lesser of too evils", etc.
  • Mr. Hopkins, that's a brilliant invention.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh Theresa, why did you employ him in the first place, everyone knows he's a preening bell end.

    Theresa May rebukes David Davis over warning that UK could leave the single market

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/06/theresa-may-rebukes-david-davis-over-warning-that-uk-could-leave/


    Bickering between May and Davis I see...

    Westminster has been given their warning by the electorate but it appears they aren't listening. The 17m may have no choice but to elect a UKIP government to get Brexit done...
    I'm sorry, but a fair number of the 52% (including me) wanted soft Brexit.
    They should have voted Remain and let the malcontent Leavers work to sweeten Cameron's 'renegotiation' until it became acceptable to them. Voting Leave for a soft Brexit was playing with fire.
    The 17m are a wide coalition, there are many Brexits. The 16m were more sure what they wanted. If it had been a 'preferendum' the result would have been different.
    I don't think that's true. The 16m were split between the actually-pro-EU and the "yeah, I guess".
    Exactly. Perhaps 15% were pro-EU, some were pro-status quo, so were "lesser of too evils", etc.
    I havered at the last minute. I could have voted Remain and doubtless, if Brexit goes completely tits up, I will have done ;).
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,240

    Three 18-year-old Afghan migrants are jailed for gang-raping another boy at an Austrian asylum centre. Sentenced to terms in jail ranging from two to three-and-a-half years each.

    The sexual abuse took place in a cave just outside the facility after the three threatened they would kill the boy with a sharp piece of glass unless he went with them.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3776230/Three-18-year-old-Afghan-migrants-jailed-gang-raping-boy-Austrian-asylum-centre.html

    Seem like very short sentences given the crimes. I presume their asylum claim will be unaffected...

    It will probably enhance their prospects of winning asylum.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,280
    Civil disobedience is fine provided those doing it are prepared to endure the consequences i.e. they are prepared to go to prison/pay the fine or whatever.

    But disobeying the law - as part of some political protest - and expecting not to suffer the consequences is childish behavior.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,240

    @Sean Fear - I seem to recall reading somewhere that it was notoriously violent in the Stone Age.

    Violence was the leading cause of death of all men and you'd be lucky to make it to 35, even if you didn't succumb to disease, famine or pestilence.

    I believe Hunter/gatherer societies tended to be horrendously violent.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,240

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh Theresa, why did you employ him in the first place, everyone knows he's a preening bell end.

    Theresa May rebukes David Davis over warning that UK could leave the single market

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/06/theresa-may-rebukes-david-davis-over-warning-that-uk-could-leave/


    Bickering between May and Davis I see...

    Westminster has been given their warning by the electorate but it appears they aren't listening. The 17m may have no choice but to elect a UKIP government to get Brexit done...
    I'm sorry, but a fair number of the 52% (including me) wanted soft Brexit.
    They should have voted Remain and let the malcontent Leavers work to sweeten Cameron's 'renegotiation' until it became acceptable to them. Voting Leave for a soft Brexit was playing with fire.
    The 17m are a wide coalition, there are many Brexits. The 16m were more sure what they wanted. If it had been a 'preferendum' the result would have been different.
    I don't think that's true. The 16m were split between the actually-pro-EU and the "yeah, I guess".
    Exactly. Perhaps 15% were pro-EU, some were pro-status quo, so were "lesser of too evils", etc.
    Broadly, public opinion is split 2/1 in a eurosceptic direction, according to BSA. Quitting the EU was not the preferred option; the preferred option was less Europe. But two thirds either wanted to Leave, or have less Europe. One third were either content with the status quo, or wanted more Europe.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,979
    Cyclefree said:

    Civil disobedience is fine provided those doing it are prepared to endure the consequences i.e. they are prepared to go to prison/pay the fine or whatever.

    But disobeying the law - as part of some political protest - and expecting not to suffer the consequences is childish behavior.

    Accepting consequences is so last century. It involves taking responsibility for your own actions and reactions, and we know that's not right, given the sacred right not to be offended, however unreasonably.

    kle4 29 going on 75.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited September 2016
    ''Mr. Hopkins, that's a brilliant invention. ''

    I'm not sure what the advantages are over a ready built vehicle - although shipping costs might be much cheaper I suppose. Also storage
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited September 2016
    Sean_F said:

    @Sean Fear - I seem to recall reading somewhere that it was notoriously violent in the Stone Age.

    Violence was the leading cause of death of all men and you'd be lucky to make it to 35, even if you didn't succumb to disease, famine or pestilence.

    I believe Hunter/gatherer societies tended to be horrendously violent.
    When white men discovered the interior of Papua New Guinea in the 20s and 30s, one of reasons for the huge language diversity they discovered was that tribes would simply kill anyone straying off piste. It enforced isolation.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    edited September 2016
    Thrak said:

    Thrak said:

    To reiterate, Gary Johnson is deserving of some analysis. Thise Wapo polls show him getting figures in Alaska, Utah and New Mexico that may, if repeated and improved, start some momentum in those states.

    New Mexico has only twice since 1972 failed to pick the winner so it's a good bellwether.

    The only way for Johnson to break through nationally is for Clinton's support to collapse. It looks unlikely that he will make the cut off for the debates and it will be tough for him to make any headway after that.
    Which is why I think that in most states beyond these few his support will wither (and strangely his addition seems to actually help Trump). All he needs is a poll or two with him with a single figure gap (NM and UT most likely) and he can blitz them and present himself as a broker for the electoral college. States like these may well think that a great deal for them to hold that power.
    But the electoral college doesn't work like that. If no one gets to 270+ because Johnson wins a handful of states, then the election is decided by the House of Representatives as per the constitution. Johnson doesn't get a say.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,455
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    @Topping

    "... there has to be some allowance for civil disobedience."

    Really? Which laws would you say it is OK to break if someone is doing so for a political purpose?

    spoiling your census form because women don't have a vote?
    Women do have the vote, Mr. Topping. So do please try again. You are the one who said there should be allowances for people who want to break the law from a political motive. I am just trying to establish what boundaries you would put on your idea, if any?
    They didn't in 1911.

    How about sitting in front of the HS2 bulldozers?
    For something like HS2, bring a token bulldozer or two onto site a couple of weeks before the real project start, let the protesters have their 15 minutes of fame then turn up with a court order and get them out of the way. Everybody wins.

    For prats who think invading an active runway is some sort of game, throw the book at them.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2016
  • Sean_F said:

    @Sean Fear - I seem to recall reading somewhere that it was notoriously violent in the Stone Age.

    Violence was the leading cause of death of all men and you'd be lucky to make it to 35, even if you didn't succumb to disease, famine or pestilence.

    I believe Hunter/gatherer societies tended to be horrendously violent.
    Horrendous violence on the scale of WW1 or WW2?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,979
    AndyJS said:

    Well done to this headmaster in actually attempting to enforce the uniform policy at his school:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3775968/Police-called-school-sends-FIFTY-children-home-day-term-weren-t-wearing-right-uniform.html

    He'll face the same criticism as a football or rugby referee if they actually followed the letter of the law on booking for diving, or penalties for not putting in to the scrum straight - it's a rule, it can be for a good reason, but people get mad if it is actually upheld.

    See also people mad at enforcement officers for parking/smoking/etc or, god forbid, if the police decided to charge people for speeding on the motorways.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,979

    Sean_F said:

    @Sean Fear - I seem to recall reading somewhere that it was notoriously violent in the Stone Age.

    Violence was the leading cause of death of all men and you'd be lucky to make it to 35, even if you didn't succumb to disease, famine or pestilence.

    I believe Hunter/gatherer societies tended to be horrendously violent.
    Horrendous violence on the scale of WW1 or WW2?
    They were violent to the scale populations could not build up to the point more extreme WW1 and WW2 acts were possible (though obviously disease and so on added to that). I've heard it said that despite the massive high points of violence in the 20th Century, in historical terms it was not at all extraordinary in the amount of conflict, and might even be below average.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    Thrak said:

    Thrak said:

    To reiterate, Gary Johnson is deserving of some analysis. Thise Wapo polls show him getting figures in Alaska, Utah and New Mexico that may, if repeated and improved, start some momentum in those states.

    New Mexico has only twice since 1972 failed to pick the winner so it's a good bellwether.

    The only way for Johnson to break through nationally is for Clinton's support to collapse. It looks unlikely that he will make the cut off for the debates and it will be tough for him to make any headway after that.
    Which is why I think that in most states beyond these few his support will wither (and strangely his addition seems to actually help Trump). All he needs is a poll or two with him with a single figure gap (NM and UT most likely) and he can blitz them and present himself as a broker for the electoral college. States like these may well think that a great deal for them to hold that power.
    But the electoral college doesn't work like that. If no one gets to 270+ because Johnson wins a handful of states, then the election is decided by the House of Representatives as per the constitution. Johnson doesn't get a say.
    Since they are his (party nominated) electors, can he not try to direct them to vote for one or other of the other two candidates?
  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494

    Thrak said:

    Thrak said:

    To reiterate, Gary Johnson is deserving of some analysis. Thise Wapo polls show him getting figures in Alaska, Utah and New Mexico that may, if repeated and improved, start some momentum in those states.

    New Mexico has only twice since 1972 failed to pick the winner so it's a good bellwether.

    The only way for Johnson to break through nationally is for Clinton's support to collapse. It looks unlikely that he will make the cut off for the debates and it will be tough for him to make any headway after that.
    Which is why I think that in most states beyond these few his support will wither (and strangely his addition seems to actually help Trump). All he needs is a poll or two with him with a single figure gap (NM and UT most likely) and he can blitz them and present himself as a broker for the electoral college. States like these may well think that a great deal for them to hold that power.
    But the electoral college doesn't work like that. If no one gets to 270+ because Johnson wins a handful of states, then the election is decided by the House of Representatives as per the constitution. Johnson doesn't get a say.
    Bugger. Ah, well, that's that theory out of the window then. I was getting mixed up with primaries.
  • Thrak said:

    Thrak said:

    Thrak said:

    To reiterate, Gary Johnson is deserving of some analysis. Thise Wapo polls show him getting figures in Alaska, Utah and New Mexico that may, if repeated and improved, start some momentum in those states.

    New Mexico has only twice since 1972 failed to pick the winner so it's a good bellwether.

    The only way for Johnson to break through nationally is for Clinton's support to collapse. It looks unlikely that he will make the cut off for the debates and it will be tough for him to make any headway after that.
    Which is why I think that in most states beyond these few his support will wither (and strangely his addition seems to actually help Trump). All he needs is a poll or two with him with a single figure gap (NM and UT most likely) and he can blitz them and present himself as a broker for the electoral college. States like these may well think that a great deal for them to hold that power.
    But the electoral college doesn't work like that. If no one gets to 270+ because Johnson wins a handful of states, then the election is decided by the House of Representatives as per the constitution. Johnson doesn't get a say.
    Bugger. Ah, well, that's that theory out of the window then. I was getting mixed up with primaries.
    There are precedents for electoral college delegates voting for a different candidate but most states have laws against it.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faithless_elector
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    @Sean Fear - I seem to recall reading somewhere that it was notoriously violent in the Stone Age.

    Violence was the leading cause of death of all men and you'd be lucky to make it to 35, even if you didn't succumb to disease, famine or pestilence.

    I believe Hunter/gatherer societies tended to be horrendously violent.
    Horrendous violence on the scale of WW1 or WW2?
    They were violent to the scale populations could not build up to the point more extreme WW1 and WW2 acts were possible (though obviously disease and so on added to that). I've heard it said that despite the massive high points of violence in the 20th Century, in historical terms it was not at all extraordinary in the amount of conflict, and might even be below average.
    This was a relatively recent report. Considering population densities, it lends some support to your thesis:

    http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/01/10000-year-old-massacre-suggests-hunter-gatherers-went-war
  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    edited September 2016

    Thrak said:

    Thrak said:

    Thrak said:

    To reiterate, Gary Johnson is deserving of some analysis. Thise Wapo polls show him getting figures in Alaska, Utah and New Mexico that may, if repeated and improved, start some momentum in those states.

    New Mexico has only twice since 1972 failed to pick the winner so it's a good bellwether.

    The only way for Johnson to break through nationally is for Clinton's support to collapse. It looks unlikely that he will make the cut off for the debates and it will be tough for him to make any headway after that.
    Which is why I think that in most states beyond these few his support will wither (and strangely his addition seems to actually help Trump). All he needs is a poll or two with him with a single figure gap (NM and UT most likely) and he can blitz them and present himself as a broker for the electoral college. States like these may well think that a great deal for them to hold that power.
    But the electoral college doesn't work like that. If no one gets to 270+ because Johnson wins a handful of states, then the election is decided by the House of Representatives as per the constitution. Johnson doesn't get a say.
    Bugger. Ah, well, that's that theory out of the window then. I was getting mixed up with primaries.
    There are precedents for electoral college delegates voting for a different candidate but most states have laws against it.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faithless_elector
    There is, of course, in such a situation, potential for a Republican House to manufacture a position where they vote in Pence as veep and not Trump as President.
  • Thrak said:

    Thrak said:

    Thrak said:

    Thrak said:

    To reiterate, Gary Johnson is deserving of some analysis. Thise Wapo polls show him getting figures in Alaska, Utah and New Mexico that may, if repeated and improved, start some momentum in those states.

    New Mexico has only twice since 1972 failed to pick the winner so it's a good bellwether.

    The only way for Johnson to break through nationally is for Clinton's support to collapse. It looks unlikely that he will make the cut off for the debates and it will be tough for him to make any headway after that.
    Which is why I think that in most states beyond these few his support will wither (and strangely his addition seems to actually help Trump). All he needs is a poll or two with him with a single figure gap (NM and UT most likely) and he can blitz them and present himself as a broker for the electoral college. States like these may well think that a great deal for them to hold that power.
    But the electoral college doesn't work like that. If no one gets to 270+ because Johnson wins a handful of states, then the election is decided by the House of Representatives as per the constitution. Johnson doesn't get a say.
    Bugger. Ah, well, that's that theory out of the window then. I was getting mixed up with primaries.
    There are precedents for electoral college delegates voting for a different candidate but most states have laws against it.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faithless_elector
    There is, of course, in such a situation, potential for a Republican House to manufacture a position where they vote in Pence as veep and not Trump as President.
    In theory only (if that). For the Republican party to steal the election from its own candidate in that way would lead to complete anarchy.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,727
    Strange how quickly political fortunes can change. Less than 2 months ago Angela Eagle was trading in the 3s on betfair to be next Labour Leader - now at 100+.

    I imagine she's a bit miffed at that. She did quite a courageous thing, and rather showed up some of her colleagues. I don't for one moment think she'd have made a good leader, but that's not such a big issue in this market.

    Mike's Analysis (which I'd not heard before) must be another body blow to at least one beleaguered MP. I imagine he only quite because Home Secretary was nailed on.

  • dr_spyn said:
    Presumably they think 'black' refers to the colour of the ink on their trust fund statement.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    dr_spyn said:

    Is it cos I is an associate member?

    ttps://twitter.com/DailyMailUK/status/773215714001952768

    Coz I feelz black, innit.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,455
    edited September 2016
    Thrak said:

    Thrak said:

    Thrak said:

    Thrak said:

    To reiterate, Gary Johnson is deserving of some analysis. Thise Wapo polls show him getting figures in Alaska, Utah and New Mexico that may, if repeated and improved, start some momentum in those states.

    New Mexico has only twice since 1972 failed to pick the winner so it's a good bellwether.

    The only way for Johnson to break through nationally is for Clinton's support to collapse. It looks unlikely that he will make the cut off for the debates and it will be tough for him to make any headway after that.
    Which is why I think that in most states beyond these few his support will wither (and strangely his addition seems to actually help Trump). All he needs is a poll or two with him with a single figure gap (NM and UT most likely) and he can blitz them and present himself as a broker for the electoral college. States like these may well think that a great deal for them to hold that power.
    But the electoral college doesn't work like that. If no one gets to 270+ because Johnson wins a handful of states, then the election is decided by the House of Representatives as per the constitution. Johnson doesn't get a say.
    Bugger. Ah, well, that's that theory out of the window then. I was getting mixed up with primaries.
    There are precedents for electoral college delegates voting for a different candidate but most states have laws against it.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faithless_elector
    There is, of course, in such a situation, potential for a Republican House to manufacture a position where they vote in Pence as veep and not Trump as President.
    Is it not still technically possible that the (Republican) House could co-opt someone like Paul Ryan as President, in preference to Trump, if neither the Donald nor Hillary were to get to 270 EC votes?

    In that case, a couple of states going to Johnson could make a huge difference to the outcome.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436
    edited September 2016
    Sandpit said:

    Thrak said:

    Thrak said:

    Thrak said:

    Thrak said:

    To reiterate, Gary Johnson is deserving of some analysis. Thise Wapo polls show him getting figures in Alaska, Utah and New Mexico that may, if repeated and improved, start some momentum in those states.

    New Mexico has only twice since 1972 failed to pick the winner so it's a good bellwether.

    The only way for Johnson to break through nationally is for Clinton's support to collapse. It looks unlikely that he will make the cut off for the debates and it will be tough for him to make any headway after that.
    Which is why I think that in most states beyond these few his support will wither (and strangely his addition seems to actually help Trump). All he needs is a poll or two with him with a single figure gap (NM and UT most likely) and he can blitz them and present himself as a broker for the electoral college. States like these may well think that a great deal for them to hold that power.
    But the electoral college doesn't work like that. If no one gets to 270+ because Johnson wins a handful of states, then the election is decided by the House of Representatives as per the constitution. Johnson doesn't get a say.
    Bugger. Ah, well, that's that theory out of the window then. I was getting mixed up with primaries.
    There are precedents for electoral college delegates voting for a different candidate but most states have laws against it.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faithless_elector
    There is, of course, in such a situation, potential for a Republican House to manufacture a position where they vote in Pence as veep and not Trump as President.
    Is it not still technically possible that the (Republican) House could co-opt someone like Paul Ryan as President, in preference to Trump, if neither the Donald nor Hillary were to get to 270 EC votes?

    In that case, a couple of states going to Johnson could make a huge difference to the outcome.
    They have to pick from the 3 candidates with the most EC votes, so no.

    You can't stump dump the Trump.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    619 said:

    Quite a set of Survey Monkey polls out according to 538.

    Trump +3 in Ohio, +3 Arizona.

    Same from below?

    Has Clinton + 1 in Texas in a large ( 5000) sample
    Trump could win without Texas. If he wins Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin he wins 273 to 265. It is a big ask but he is competitive in all those states (though remember overall he leads by 8% in Texas in the RCP average albeit that is half the 16% Romney won it by)
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    @Topping

    "... there has to be some allowance for civil disobedience."

    Really? Which laws would you say it is OK to break if someone is doing so for a political purpose?

    spoiling your census form because women don't have a vote?
    Women do have the vote, Mr. Topping. So do please try again. You are the one who said there should be allowances for people who want to break the law from a political motive. I am just trying to establish what boundaries you would put on your idea, if any?
    They didn't in 1911.

    How about sitting in front of the HS2 bulldozers?
    For something like HS2, bring a token bulldozer or two onto site a couple of weeks before the real project start, let the protesters have their 15 minutes of fame then turn up with a court order and get them out of the way. Everybody wins.

    For prats who think invading an active runway is some sort of game, throw the book at them.
    The way to treat BLM protesters who lock each other together is to gently (mustn't give cause for complaint) move them as a group away from their protest station to somewhere relatively remote and leave them there, unable to release themselves, for several days. They think the kind police will always free them from their locked group. Severals days without food, water or shelter will set a deterrent example.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,455
    edited September 2016

    Sandpit said:

    Thrak said:

    Thrak said:

    Thrak said:

    Thrak said:

    To reiterate, Gary Johnson is deserving of some analysis. Thise Wapo polls show him getting figures in Alaska, Utah and New Mexico that may, if repeated and improved, start some momentum in those states.

    New Mexico has only twice since 1972 failed to pick the winner so it's a good bellwether.

    The only way for Johnson to break through nationally is for Clinton's support to collapse. It looks unlikely that he will make the cut off for the debates and it will be tough for him to make any headway after that.
    Which is why I think that in most states beyond these few his support will wither (and strangely his addition seems to actually help Trump). All he needs is a poll or two with him with a single figure gap (NM and UT most likely) and he can blitz them and present himself as a broker for the electoral college. States like these may well think that a great deal for them to hold that power.
    But the electoral college doesn't work like that. If no one gets to 270+ because Johnson wins a handful of states, then the election is decided by the House of Representatives as per the constitution. Johnson doesn't get a say.
    Bugger. Ah, well, that's that theory out of the window then. I was getting mixed up with primaries.
    There are precedents for electoral college delegates voting for a different candidate but most states have laws against it.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faithless_elector
    There is, of course, in such a situation, potential for a Republican House to manufacture a position where they vote in Pence as veep and not Trump as President.
    Is it not still technically possible that the (Republican) House could co-opt someone like Paul Ryan as President, in preference to Trump, if neither the Donald nor Hillary were to get to 270 EC votes?

    In that case, a couple of states going to Johnson could make a huge difference to the outcome.
    They have to pick from the 3 candidates with the most EC votes, so no.

    You can't stump dump the Trump.
    Hey Ho, was worth a try. So Uncle Sam is going to be stuck with one or other of the two most unpopular candidates ever to stand for the office!

    Are there any markets up yet on the 2020 election not being contested by the incumbent? They're both old, and both shit.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Is it cos I is an associate member?

    ttps://twitter.com/DailyMailUK/status/773215714001952768

    Coz I feelz black, innit.
    I suspect their vowels are far more rounded than that and smugness plays a greater part of it.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    perdix said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    @Topping

    "... there has to be some allowance for civil disobedience."

    Really? Which laws would you say it is OK to break if someone is doing so for a political purpose?

    spoiling your census form because women don't have a vote?
    Women do have the vote, Mr. Topping. So do please try again. You are the one who said there should be allowances for people who want to break the law from a political motive. I am just trying to establish what boundaries you would put on your idea, if any?
    They didn't in 1911.

    How about sitting in front of the HS2 bulldozers?
    For something like HS2, bring a token bulldozer or two onto site a couple of weeks before the real project start, let the protesters have their 15 minutes of fame then turn up with a court order and get them out of the way. Everybody wins.

    For prats who think invading an active runway is some sort of game, throw the book at them.
    The way to treat BLM protesters who lock each other together is to gently (mustn't give cause for complaint) move them as a group away from their protest station to somewhere relatively remote and leave them there, unable to release themselves, for several days. They think the kind police will always free them from their locked group. Severals days without food, water or shelter will set a deterrent example.

    I used to work at a location that attracted protestors. One of them thought that they had chained themself to the sliding electric security gate. But actually had chained themself to the static part of the fence not impeding use of the gate in anyway. In the end he was ppractically begging the police to cut him free
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,455
    edited September 2016
    perdix said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    @Topping

    "... there has to be some allowance for civil disobedience."

    Really? Which laws would you say it is OK to break if someone is doing so for a political purpose?

    spoiling your census form because women don't have a vote?
    Women do have the vote, Mr. Topping. So do please try again. You are the one who said there should be allowances for people who want to break the law from a political motive. I am just trying to establish what boundaries you would put on your idea, if any?
    They didn't in 1911.

    How about sitting in front of the HS2 bulldozers?
    For something like HS2, bring a token bulldozer or two onto site a couple of weeks before the real project start, let the protesters have their 15 minutes of fame then turn up with a court order and get them out of the way. Everybody wins.

    For prats who think invading an active runway is some sort of game, throw the book at them.
    The way to treat BLM protesters who lock each other together is to gently (mustn't give cause for complaint) move them as a group away from their protest station to somewhere relatively remote and leave them there, unable to release themselves, for several days. They think the kind police will always free them from their locked group. Severals days without food, water or shelter will set a deterrent example.
    Like the thinking there, but no doubt an 'Uman Rights lawyer would find a reason to sue the police over it.

    A couple of years of the more conventional punishment of sharing a cell with Bubba ensures they'll not do it again.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    HYUFD said:

    619 said:

    Quite a set of Survey Monkey polls out according to 538.

    Trump +3 in Ohio, +3 Arizona.

    Same from below?

    Has Clinton + 1 in Texas in a large ( 5000) sample
    Trump could win without Texas. If he wins Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin he wins 273 to 265. It is a big ask but he is competitive in all those states (though remember overall he leads by 8% in Texas in the RCP average albeit that is half the 16% Romney won it by)
    Trump will NOT win without Texas. That is ridiculous.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Ed Balls on manoeuvres?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/headlines/37286668

    Doesn't seem to be offering support to Momentum and Corbyn.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    619 said:

    Quite a set of Survey Monkey polls out according to 538.

    Trump +3 in Ohio, +3 Arizona.

    Same from below?

    Has Clinton + 1 in Texas in a large ( 5000) sample
    Trump could win without Texas. If he wins Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin he wins 273 to 265. It is a big ask but he is competitive in all those states (though remember overall he leads by 8% in Texas in the RCP average albeit that is half the 16% Romney won it by)
    Trump will NOT win without Texas. That is ridiculous.
    It will be very difficult but it is not impossible, as the pathway I gave showed. Albeit the last Republican to win the presidency while losing Texas was Nixon in 1968
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,455

    Not too surprising.

    tps://twitter.com/SkyNewsTonight/status/773221199912509440

    hps://twitter.com/SkyNewsTonight/status/773221509276073984

    Surely we're better off trying to help as many people as possible in the Syrian refugee camps, rather than handing a lucky few a winning ticket in the lottery of life?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    edited September 2016
    alex. said:

    Thrak said:

    Thrak said:

    To reiterate, Gary Johnson is deserving of some analysis. Thise Wapo polls show him getting figures in Alaska, Utah and New Mexico that may, if repeated and improved, start some momentum in those states.

    New Mexico has only twice since 1972 failed to pick the winner so it's a good bellwether.

    The only way for Johnson to break through nationally is for Clinton's support to collapse. It looks unlikely that he will make the cut off for the debates and it will be tough for him to make any headway after that.
    Which is why I think that in most states beyond these few his support will wither (and strangely his addition seems to actually help Trump). All he needs is a poll or two with him with a single figure gap (NM and UT most likely) and he can blitz them and present himself as a broker for the electoral college. States like these may well think that a great deal for them to hold that power.
    But the electoral college doesn't work like that. If no one gets to 270+ because Johnson wins a handful of states, then the election is decided by the House of Representatives as per the constitution. Johnson doesn't get a say.
    Since they are his (party nominated) electors, can he not try to direct them to vote for one or other of the other two candidates?
    That's a fair point, though in most states the electors are legally required to vote for the winner of the popular vote in their state.
  • alex. said:

    Thrak said:

    Thrak said:

    To reiterate, Gary Johnson is deserving of some analysis. Thise Wapo polls show him getting figures in Alaska, Utah and New Mexico that may, if repeated and improved, start some momentum in those states.

    New Mexico has only twice since 1972 failed to pick the winner so it's a good bellwether.

    The only way for Johnson to break through nationally is for Clinton's support to collapse. It looks unlikely that he will make the cut off for the debates and it will be tough for him to make any headway after that.
    Which is why I think that in most states beyond these few his support will wither (and strangely his addition seems to actually help Trump). All he needs is a poll or two with him with a single figure gap (NM and UT most likely) and he can blitz them and present himself as a broker for the electoral college. States like these may well think that a great deal for them to hold that power.
    But the electoral college doesn't work like that. If no one gets to 270+ because Johnson wins a handful of states, then the election is decided by the House of Representatives as per the constitution. Johnson doesn't get a say.
    Since they are his (party nominated) electors, can he not try to direct them to vote for one or other of the other two candidates?
    That's a fair point, though in most states the electors are legally required to vote for the winner of the popular vote in their state.
    I can't see how the law could be enforced if the candidate in question publicly endorsed another.
  • NEW THREAD

  • https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/773206341296979972

    Anyone still believe Hillary is well clear?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    @Sean Fear - I seem to recall reading somewhere that it was notoriously violent in the Stone Age.

    Violence was the leading cause of death of all men and you'd be lucky to make it to 35, even if you didn't succumb to disease, famine or pestilence.

    I believe Hunter/gatherer societies tended to be horrendously violent.
    Horrendous violence on the scale of WW1 or WW2?
    They were violent to the scale populations could not build up to the point more extreme WW1 and WW2 acts were possible (though obviously disease and so on added to that). I've heard it said that despite the massive high points of violence in the 20th Century, in historical terms it was not at all extraordinary in the amount of conflict, and might even be below average.
    The bloodiest battle on English soil was probably that at Towton on Palm Sunday 1461. At one time it was held that more Englishmen were casualties on that day than any other until the 1st July 1916, and that is in absolute terms let alone pre-rata or relative terms.

    Contemporary for Towton. sources put the number of casualties at, depending on which source you care to choose between 28,000 and 38,000. Other Estimates put the number of Lancastrian deaths alone at 9,000 (though that number seems to low to me given the rout and general pursuit that took place

    Even if you accept the lowest estimate then, as England was struggling to rebuild its population after the black death, on a per capita basis it was still probably the bloodiest days fighting until the Somme..
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,678
    58% said we should take less, and apparently 0% said we should take fewer *wearily shakes head*
  • alex. said:

    Thrak said:

    Thrak said:

    To reiterate, Gary Johnson is deserving of some analysis. Thise Wapo polls show him getting figures in Alaska, Utah and New Mexico that may, if repeated and improved, start some momentum in those states.

    New Mexico has only twice since 1972 failed to pick the winner so it's a good bellwether.

    The only way for Johnson to break through nationally is for Clinton's support to collapse. It looks unlikely that he will make the cut off for the debates and it will be tough for him to make any headway after that.
    Which is why I think that in most states beyond these few his support will wither (and strangely his addition seems to actually help Trump). All he needs is a poll or two with him with a single figure gap (NM and UT most likely) and he can blitz them and present himself as a broker for the electoral college. States like these may well think that a great deal for them to hold that power.
    But the electoral college doesn't work like that. If no one gets to 270+ because Johnson wins a handful of states, then the election is decided by the House of Representatives as per the constitution. Johnson doesn't get a say.
    Since they are his (party nominated) electors, can he not try to direct them to vote for one or other of the other two candidates?
    That's a fair point, though in most states the electors are legally required to vote for the winner of the popular vote in their state.
    I can't see how the law could be enforced if the candidate in question publicly endorsed another.
    The law can be enforced because it is the law. It doesn't give flexibility.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    saddened said:

    perdix said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    @Topping

    "... there has to be some allowance for civil disobedience."

    Really? Which laws would you say it is OK to break if someone is doing so for a political purpose?

    spoiling your census form because women don't have a vote?
    Women do have the vote, Mr. Topping. So do please try again. You are the one who said there should be allowances for people who want to break the law from a political motive. I am just trying to establish what boundaries you would put on your idea, if any?
    They didn't in 1911.

    How about sitting in front of the HS2 bulldozers?
    For something like HS2, bring a token bulldozer or two onto site a couple of weeks before the real project start, let the protesters have their 15 minutes of fame then turn up with a court order and get them out of the way. Everybody wins.

    For prats who think invading an active runway is some sort of game, throw the book at them.
    The way to treat BLM protesters who lock each other together is to gently (mustn't give cause for complaint) move them as a group away from their protest station to somewhere relatively remote and leave them there, unable to release themselves, for several days. They think the kind police will always free them from their locked group. Severals days without food, water or shelter will set a deterrent example.

    I used to work at a location that attracted protestors. One of them thought that they had chained themself to the sliding electric security gate. But actually had chained themself to the static part of the fence not impeding use of the gate in anyway. In the end he was ppractically begging the police to cut him free
    :smiley:
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,695
    Has Vaz just resigned as Chairman or has he also resigned from being on the Committee?

    Been out all day and media reports don't seem to be explicit on this.

    Or does one follow the other - ie if he was elected by MPs as Chairman then by resigning does he also leave the Committee?
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    taffys said:

    ''Zhukov referred to El Alamein as a 'minor skirmish'! Dude. ''

    Raw manpower has historically been a weakness for Britain. We've always had to husband troop resources. Maybe that's why the Somme is so deep in the pysche.

    When the Afrika Korps surrendered the 8th army took more prisoners than Zhukov did at Stalingrad.

    And, to uphold the highest standards of PB nitpicking can we please stop conflating "Russian" with Soviet. At this rate we'll be told that most Iranians are Farsi speaking Persians.
  • kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    @Sean Fear - I seem to recall reading somewhere that it was notoriously violent in the Stone Age.

    Violence was the leading cause of death of all men and you'd be lucky to make it to 35, even if you didn't succumb to disease, famine or pestilence.

    I believe Hunter/gatherer societies tended to be horrendously violent.
    Horrendous violence on the scale of WW1 or WW2?
    They were violent to the scale populations could not build up to the point more extreme WW1 and WW2 acts were possible (though obviously disease and so on added to that). I've heard it said that despite the massive high points of violence in the 20th Century, in historical terms it was not at all extraordinary in the amount of conflict, and might even be below average.
    The bloodiest battle on English soil was probably that at Towton on Palm Sunday 1461. At one time it was held that more Englishmen were casualties on that day than any other until the 1st July 1916, and that is in absolute terms let alone pre-rata or relative terms.

    Contemporary for Towton. sources put the number of casualties at, depending on which source you care to choose between 28,000 and 38,000. Other Estimates put the number of Lancastrian deaths alone at 9,000 (though that number seems to low to me given the rout and general pursuit that took place

    Even if you accept the lowest estimate then, as England was struggling to rebuild its population after the black death, on a per capita basis it was still probably the bloodiest days fighting until the Somme..
    I'm no historian, but I'd have thought that William I's harrying of the north must be up there with some of the bloodiest violence to have occurred on English soil.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/773206341296979972

    Anyone still believe Hillary is well clear?

    Independents in the US have historically strongly leant Republican.
This discussion has been closed.