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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At the 2010 shadow cabinet elections no MPs with surnames

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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    Pulpstar said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    The most brilliant meow, saucers of double cream for Douglas Murray :)

    "For although one does not want to rub salt into wounds, if you have the appearance of Penfold, the condescension of a cat and the physique of a care bear, even being a Chairman of the Home Affairs select committee won’t help you get much in the way of gay totty."

    " But the point I would like to make is that other than getting rent boys it is hard to imagine many other routes to happiness for Vaz in the whole gay area."

    Serious shade.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/09/keith-vazs-rent-boys-done-valuable-political-job/
    There are always the blind, the desperate, and those who haven't had it in months.
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    Pulpstar said:

    John_M said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Wow - how will be interesting

    Danny Shaw
    Policing Minister @BrandonLewis promises big savings - £1 million per day - from Airwave replacement, Emergency Services Network.

    Airwave is, and I say this with some force, an enormous sack of shite.
    I have never heard of it.
    Isn't it a chewing gum?
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    John_M said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Wow - how will be interesting

    Danny Shaw
    Policing Minister @BrandonLewis promises big savings - £1 million per day - from Airwave replacement, Emergency Services Network.

    Airwave is, and I say this with some force, an enormous sack of shite.
    I entirely agree. Was involved when it was launched from SP side, then massive costs for plod on the other.

    Just the lost kit costs are massive savings opportunities
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    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    It is very easy to spot the easy to wind up Oxonians on this thread.

    When do you anticipate Cambridge providing another PM?
    Major went to neither Oxbridge uni.
    He didn't go to university full stop. I'd have thought it unlikely that we'll ever get another PM who didn't go to uni.
    But but but but the Messiah is nailed on....
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Vinny ITV
    HASC have nominated Tim Loughton to be acting chair. He says committee listened in sadness as to what #KeithVaz had to say to them
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Holy crap, is this accurate?

    Classic Pix
    Almost 80% of the males born in the Soviet Union in 1923 did not survive World War II https://t.co/Au05r4FvbQ
  • Options

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    It is very easy to spot the easy to wind up Oxonians on this thread.

    When do you anticipate Cambridge providing another PM?
    Major went to neither Oxbridge uni.
    He didn't go to university full stop. I'd have thought it unlikely that we'll ever get another PM who didn't go to uni.
    But but but but the Messiah is nailed on....
    JICIPM!
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,048
    No change in Motorola stock price.
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    PlatoSaid said:

    Holy crap, is this accurate?

    Classic Pix
    Almost 80% of the males born in the Soviet Union in 1923 did not survive World War II https://t.co/Au05r4FvbQ

    https://twitter.com/bryantookey/status/660173192082886657
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    :)

    Godfrey Elfwick
    Very proud to have written this official statement for #BlackLivesMatterUK https://t.co/7shXB1KF9A
  • Options
    PlatoSaid said:

    Holy crap, is this accurate?

    Classic Pix
    Almost 80% of the males born in the Soviet Union in 1923 did not survive World War II https://t.co/Au05r4FvbQ

    Wouldn't be suprised, they'd be 18-22 in during 1941 and 1945 and life in the Red Army was pretty grim.

    Some of those Divisions had worse life expectancy than a kamikaze squadron
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/09/coming-soon-sinn-fein-labour-conference/?_ga=1.84703888.845132507.1460374832

    "For this, Sinn Féin’s vice president Mary Lou McDonald, Dave Anderson — the shadow Northern Ireland secretary — and Simon Dubbins are expected to discuss how the failure to reunify Ireland contributed to Brexit."
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    Miss Plato, I remember reading a WWII book which had a proportion of people from various countries who died. Russia was the highest (I think it was something like 1:22, but can't be certain).
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited September 2016
    @FoxinSox

    " Islanders would be better off being treated in Portsmouth or Southampton"

    Wouldn't that depend on what they were ill with and if a nasty how long it would take to evacuate them to the mainland? Air ambulance, probably OK. By road from Ventnor to the ferry, then across, and the by road to the Hospital (where ambulances maybe queued), is probably worse than taking your chances in St Mary's.

    That said I have had some experience of St. Mary's. Only in the area of blood testing and I found them more technologically advanced, more efficient and more friendly than either the RSCH or the Princess Royal.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,636
    edited September 2016
    https://twitter.com/bryantookey/status/660173192082886657

    @History_Pics @bendirs1 80% figure is overstated (was 68%) and majority died before war http://blogs.warwick.ac.uk/markharrison/entry/was_the_soviet/ … Still a dreadful stat
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    PlatoSaid said:

    Holy crap, is this accurate?

    Classic Pix
    Almost 80% of the males born in the Soviet Union in 1923 did not survive World War II https://t.co/Au05r4FvbQ

    The reason I'm so forgiving of Russia is simply due to their enormous sacrifice in WW2. I can't find that figure to hand in my sources, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited September 2016

    Miss Plato, I remember reading a WWII book which had a proportion of people from various countries who died. Russia was the highest (I think it was something like 1:22, but can't be certain).

    Prewar Poland lost more than a quarter of its population in the war, including 3 million Jewish Poles.

    I believe that Belarus and Ukraine possibly lost a higher proportion on current national boundaries.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684
    Very poor US ISM figures, it definitely feels like the US economy is slowing down. Probably good news for Trump given that Hillary is the continuity candidate. Sterling up to almost $1.34 on the news as well.
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    Dr. Foxinsox, this is from childhood, so I can't be sure, but I don't think Poland was one of the countries listed (UK, US, Germany and Russia were).
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,030

    Miss Plato, I remember reading a WWII book which had a proportion of people from various countries who died. Russia was the highest (I think it was something like 1:22, but can't be certain).

    Prewar Poland lost more than a quarter of its population in the war, including 3 million Jewish Poles.

    I believe that Belarus and Ukraine possibly lost a higher proportion on current national boundaries.
    Staggering stat, 17% or 6 million in total. For context, the UK only lost 400,000, or 0.9%.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    MaxPB said:

    Very poor US ISM figures, it definitely feels like the US economy is slowing down. Probably good news for Trump given that Hillary is the continuity candidate. Sterling up to almost $1.34 on the news as well.

    EZ growth figures were nothing to write home about either. Plod, plod, plod: the western economies.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    David Paxton
    UK 6/9/16:
    White, middle class yurt-erectors raid City airport because fumes are racist.
    Livingstone mentions Hitler
    Corbyn grills UB40.
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    PlatoSaid said:

    Holy crap, is this accurate?

    Classic Pix
    Almost 80% of the males born in the Soviet Union in 1923 did not survive World War II https://t.co/Au05r4FvbQ

    I think it is, Miss P. The figures have been around for years and I have never seen them refuted. Furthermore there is secondary evidence (e.g. birthrates) which would provide supporting evidence.

    The brutality of the Sovs towards their own people is scarcely to believed in this day and age. If you want to get a flavour for it I would suggest Anthony Beevor's book "Berlin".
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,030

    PlatoSaid said:

    Holy crap, is this accurate?

    Classic Pix
    Almost 80% of the males born in the Soviet Union in 1923 did not survive World War II https://t.co/Au05r4FvbQ

    I think it is, Miss P. The figures have been around for years and I have never seen them refuted. Furthermore there is secondary evidence (e.g. birthrates) which would provide supporting evidence.

    The brutality of the Sovs towards their own people is scarcely to believed in this day and age. If you want to get a flavour for it I would suggest Anthony Beevor's book "Berlin".
    Looks like it was "only" 68%:

    http://blogs.warwick.ac.uk/markharrison/entry/was_the_soviet/
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    @FoxinSox

    " Islanders would be better off being treated in Portsmouth or Southampton"

    Wouldn't that depend on what they were ill with and if a nasty how long it would take to evacuate them to the mainland? Air ambulance, probably OK. By road from Ventnor to the ferry, then across, and the by road to the Hospital (where ambulances maybe queued), is probably worse than taking your chances in St Mary's.

    That said I have had some experience of St. Mary's. Only in the area of blood testing and I found them more technologically advanced, more efficient and more friendly than either the RSCH or the Princess Royal.

    St Mary's is no place to be seriously ill.

    It scores well on some other aspects of care, like the convenience aspects. For 80% of ill patients the results are as good as the mainland.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Now that's real lefty annoying sport

    AP
    PHOTOS: Eagle hunting, goat polo, and Steven Seagal - all scenes from the World Nomad Games in Kyrgyzstan. https://t.co/Wd5yFLpjNH
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    RobD said:

    Miss Plato, I remember reading a WWII book which had a proportion of people from various countries who died. Russia was the highest (I think it was something like 1:22, but can't be certain).

    Prewar Poland lost more than a quarter of its population in the war, including 3 million Jewish Poles.

    I believe that Belarus and Ukraine possibly lost a higher proportion on current national boundaries.
    Staggering stat, 17% or 6 million in total. For context, the UK only lost 400,000, or 0.9%.
    Some of the figures for people killed in Eastern Europe almost defy belief. Unfortunately, they are correct.

    But, none match Paraguay, in percentage terms. In the mid nineteenth century, about 70% of the Paraguayan adult male population was killed in a disastrous war. The country tacitly allowed polygamy for several generations afterwards, to restore the population.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684
    John_M said:

    MaxPB said:

    Very poor US ISM figures, it definitely feels like the US economy is slowing down. Probably good news for Trump given that Hillary is the continuity candidate. Sterling up to almost $1.34 on the news as well.

    EZ growth figures were nothing to write home about either. Plod, plod, plod: the western economies.
    Indeed. One of the reasons people like Trump or Le Pen even get a look in is because the west is stuck in a rut of low and uneven growth. The poor are more likely to feel spending cuts and the least likely to feel the benefits of economic growth. Whether the government is Obama, Hollande, Cameron or others, there isn't an answer to this question that people are willing to accept or believe is true.
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    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties

    For a (rather morbid) list of WW2 casualties.

    Top 5:

    17% for pre-war Poland
    15% for the Pacific Island of Nauru
    14% for Lithuania
    13% Latvia
    11% for East Timor (average 8 and 14 lowest/highest estimates)

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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''EZ growth figures were nothing to write home about either. Plod, plod, plod: the western economies. ''

    Quite. But why. That's the question.
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    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Holy crap, is this accurate?

    Classic Pix
    Almost 80% of the males born in the Soviet Union in 1923 did not survive World War II https://t.co/Au05r4FvbQ

    I think it is, Miss P. The figures have been around for years and I have never seen them refuted. Furthermore there is secondary evidence (e.g. birthrates) which would provide supporting evidence.

    The brutality of the Sovs towards their own people is scarcely to believed in this day and age. If you want to get a flavour for it I would suggest Anthony Beevor's book "Berlin".
    Looks like it was "only" 68%:

    http://blogs.warwick.ac.uk/markharrison/entry/was_the_soviet/
    I posted that earlier in the thread - twice :)
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,030

    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Holy crap, is this accurate?

    Classic Pix
    Almost 80% of the males born in the Soviet Union in 1923 did not survive World War II https://t.co/Au05r4FvbQ

    I think it is, Miss P. The figures have been around for years and I have never seen them refuted. Furthermore there is secondary evidence (e.g. birthrates) which would provide supporting evidence.

    The brutality of the Sovs towards their own people is scarcely to believed in this day and age. If you want to get a flavour for it I would suggest Anthony Beevor's book "Berlin".
    Looks like it was "only" 68%:

    http://blogs.warwick.ac.uk/markharrison/entry/was_the_soviet/
    I posted that earlier in the thread - twice :)
    Where'd you think I got the link from? ;)
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    PlatoSaid said:

    Now that's real lefty annoying sport

    AP
    PHOTOS: Eagle hunting, goat polo, and Steven Seagal - all scenes from the World Nomad Games in Kyrgyzstan. https://t.co/Wd5yFLpjNH

    You should add a :lol: if you are thinking of who I think you are thinking of.
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    John_M said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Holy crap, is this accurate?

    Classic Pix
    Almost 80% of the males born in the Soviet Union in 1923 did not survive World War II https://t.co/Au05r4FvbQ

    The reason I'm so forgiving of Russia is simply due to their enormous sacrifice in WW2. I can't find that figure to hand in my sources, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least.
    'Russia' and its forebears has been invaded so many times in the past that there is an instinctual defensive national psyche. Something that Putin plays on time and time again, especially when the polls show that he is in trouble.

    This showed in the Cold War: leaving aside the nukes, many of their weapons system were short-range and defensive in nature, especially when compared to the US's equivalents. (*)

    The US, in contrast, was about projecting power. Hence the Russians never built any 'real' carriers and the US has a policy of ten supercarriers, along with their associated fleets.

    If it was not for the poisonous ideology of Communism and the evils it perpetrated, I would have probably had more sympathy with Russia during the Cold War than the US.

    (*) Though arguing against that point: the US military had to have large air- and sea-lift capabilities to get to anywhere they were likely to need to fight. Not so the Russians.
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    PlatoSaid said:

    David Paxton
    UK 6/9/16:
    White, middle class yurt-erectors raid City airport because fumes are racist.
    Livingstone mentions Hitler
    Corbyn grills UB40.


    The thing is, Haavara was actually a thing. If Livingstone did call H a Zionist on the strength of it, that is appalling but you can see what he meant.
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    Sean_F said:

    RobD said:

    Miss Plato, I remember reading a WWII book which had a proportion of people from various countries who died. Russia was the highest (I think it was something like 1:22, but can't be certain).

    Prewar Poland lost more than a quarter of its population in the war, including 3 million Jewish Poles.

    I believe that Belarus and Ukraine possibly lost a higher proportion on current national boundaries.
    Staggering stat, 17% or 6 million in total. For context, the UK only lost 400,000, or 0.9%.
    Some of the figures for people killed in Eastern Europe almost defy belief. Unfortunately, they are correct.

    But, none match Paraguay, in percentage terms. In the mid nineteenth century, about 70% of the Paraguayan adult male population was killed in a disastrous war. The country tacitly allowed polygamy for several generations afterwards, to restore the population.
    Why several generations?
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Emily Ashton
    Another day, another top secret memo snapped in Downing St… Great work from @PoliticalPics https://t.co/3NKlnmtK14 https://t.co/gj1HkYtmlz
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,571

    Pulpstar said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    The most brilliant meow, saucers of double cream for Douglas Murray :)

    "For although one does not want to rub salt into wounds, if you have the appearance of Penfold, the condescension of a cat and the physique of a care bear, even being a Chairman of the Home Affairs select committee won’t help you get much in the way of gay totty."

    " But the point I would like to make is that other than getting rent boys it is hard to imagine many other routes to happiness for Vaz in the whole gay area."

    Serious shade.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/09/keith-vazs-rent-boys-done-valuable-political-job/
    It's amazing what niche tastes are out there. As is often said, there's someone for everyone.
    And thank the lord for that.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758



    What happens when the the Acute care is not a quick solution?

    I don't think of trauma centres as centres of excellence, but more as a replacement for the DGH. They certainly shouldn't be "few and far between". As you said elsewhere, timely response is critical in so many acute situations. Where I think of centres of excellence, I am think of cardiac surgery, oncology, opthalmology, etc, where a high level of expertise (especially where you get to surgery) is helpful.

    I am sorry to hear about your brother. The issue I'm trying to address with the DGH is to get the patients who need rest and recovery more than access to high skilled physicians into a more local ("cottage hospital") model.

    That takes me onto where are these convalescence/specialist hospitals going to be? ... The DGH has one great advantage ... they are going to be reasonably close ... to where the patient lives.

    They are inconvenient because they are designed around being multi-functional rather than accessible and useful for the patient and carer. Patients - and relatives - would get better service from smaller units with more of an emphasis on nursing care than on being part of a massive complex single organisation. Could be located where DGHs are - I like the idea of co-location with old age homes so that you can share some of the nursing care functions

    Perhaps ... we should build a whole raft of new hospitals, ... We could call them cottage hospitals, just like we had forty years ago

    Answered your earlier points before I got to here. But I see you are getting the idea :)

    Patients prefer Home Care to Hospital Care. Well in my experience that is true as hospital care in the NHS once you are out of the acute phase actually means neglect. However, if you are going to have home care then it needs to be home care not some health visitor who doesn't actually speak English popping in for ten minutes before dashing off to his/her next appointment. For a lot of patients, especially the elderly living on their own, home care means loneliness, neglect and fear.

    Yes. Admittedly I'm dealing in fantasy rather than the world of the politically possible. The NHS is too big, too complex and tries to do too many things. I'd rather see separate organisations handling the different parts of the country's health needs.

    As to the supplier's interest, you surely don't think that such a radical change in the NHS as you are proposing would be calmly accepted by the people who are currently working in the Service.

    Agreed. I think of the staff as "producers" and "suppliers" as third party organisations who service the needs of the NHS, hence the confusion.
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    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Holy crap, is this accurate?

    Classic Pix
    Almost 80% of the males born in the Soviet Union in 1923 did not survive World War II https://t.co/Au05r4FvbQ

    I think it is, Miss P. The figures have been around for years and I have never seen them refuted. Furthermore there is secondary evidence (e.g. birthrates) which would provide supporting evidence.

    The brutality of the Sovs towards their own people is scarcely to believed in this day and age. If you want to get a flavour for it I would suggest Anthony Beevor's book "Berlin".
    Looks like it was "only" 68%:

    http://blogs.warwick.ac.uk/markharrison/entry/was_the_soviet/
    I posted that earlier in the thread - twice :)
    Where'd you think I got the link from? ;)
    I... pardon you :)
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,030
    PlatoSaid said:

    Emily Ashton
    Another day, another top secret memo snapped in Downing St… Great work from @PoliticalPics https://t.co/3NKlnmtK14 https://t.co/gj1HkYtmlz

    top secret... okay.
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    Mr. Eagles, some people are just mad.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Sean_F said:

    RobD said:

    Miss Plato, I remember reading a WWII book which had a proportion of people from various countries who died. Russia was the highest (I think it was something like 1:22, but can't be certain).

    Prewar Poland lost more than a quarter of its population in the war, including 3 million Jewish Poles.

    I believe that Belarus and Ukraine possibly lost a higher proportion on current national boundaries.
    Staggering stat, 17% or 6 million in total. For context, the UK only lost 400,000, or 0.9%.
    Some of the figures for people killed in Eastern Europe almost defy belief. Unfortunately, they are correct.

    But, none match Paraguay, in percentage terms. In the mid nineteenth century, about 70% of the Paraguayan adult male population was killed in a disastrous war. The country tacitly allowed polygamy for several generations afterwards, to restore the population.
    Why several generations?
    I think this is a very PB question. Bravo.
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    PlatoSaid said:

    :)

    Godfrey Elfwick
    Very proud to have written this official statement for #BlackLivesMatterUK https://t.co/7shXB1KF9A

    His Twitter bio reads:

    Genderqueer Muslim atheist. Born white in the #WrongSkin. Itinerant jongleur. Xir, Xirs Xirself. Filters life through the lens of minority issues.

    'Nuff said.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Holy crap, is this accurate?

    Classic Pix
    Almost 80% of the males born in the Soviet Union in 1923 did not survive World War II https://t.co/Au05r4FvbQ

    I think it is, Miss P. The figures have been around for years and I have never seen them refuted. Furthermore there is secondary evidence (e.g. birthrates) which would provide supporting evidence.

    The brutality of the Sovs towards their own people is scarcely to believed in this day and age. If you want to get a flavour for it I would suggest Anthony Beevor's book "Berlin".
    Looks like it was "only" 68%:

    http://blogs.warwick.ac.uk/markharrison/entry/was_the_soviet/
    Interesting article, Mr. D., thank you for bringing it to my attention. Only 68%, is still fairly dreadful and the margin of error seems to be quite high. Do you know if the authors of that paper did any cross checking with Sov birthrates in 46/47/48? That might provide them with if not proof then at least serious corroboration.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,571
    I remembered this being linked to a few months ago about WWII deaths: http://www.fallen.io/ww2/

    It is a stunning video but confirms that WWII was fought on the eastern front with some small bits added on here and there.
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    Sean_F said:

    RobD said:

    Miss Plato, I remember reading a WWII book which had a proportion of people from various countries who died. Russia was the highest (I think it was something like 1:22, but can't be certain).

    Prewar Poland lost more than a quarter of its population in the war, including 3 million Jewish Poles.

    I believe that Belarus and Ukraine possibly lost a higher proportion on current national boundaries.
    Staggering stat, 17% or 6 million in total. For context, the UK only lost 400,000, or 0.9%.
    Some of the figures for people killed in Eastern Europe almost defy belief. Unfortunately, they are correct.

    But, none match Paraguay, in percentage terms. In the mid nineteenth century, about 70% of the Paraguayan adult male population was killed in a disastrous war. The country tacitly allowed polygamy for several generations afterwards, to restore the population.
    Why several generations?
    Because the Paraguayans lost 300,000 people.

    According to some estimates, Paraguay's pre-war population of 525,000 was reduced to 221,000 of which only 28,000 were men.[8]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paraguayan_War
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    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Holy crap, is this accurate?

    Classic Pix
    Almost 80% of the males born in the Soviet Union in 1923 did not survive World War II https://t.co/Au05r4FvbQ

    I think it is, Miss P. The figures have been around for years and I have never seen them refuted. Furthermore there is secondary evidence (e.g. birthrates) which would provide supporting evidence.

    The brutality of the Sovs towards their own people is scarcely to believed in this day and age. If you want to get a flavour for it I would suggest Anthony Beevor's book "Berlin".
    Looks like it was "only" 68%:

    http://blogs.warwick.ac.uk/markharrison/entry/was_the_soviet/
    Interesting article, Mr. D., thank you for bringing it to my attention.
    I posted it twice before he did :)

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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Ishmael_X said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Now that's real lefty annoying sport

    AP
    PHOTOS: Eagle hunting, goat polo, and Steven Seagal - all scenes from the World Nomad Games in Kyrgyzstan. https://t.co/Wd5yFLpjNH

    You should add a :lol: if you are thinking of who I think you are thinking of.
    ;)
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    Mr. Quidder, GodfreyElfwick is a persistent piss-taker. [You may well have gathered that, but thought I'd mention it, if not].
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    Dr. Prasannan, you're Princess Leia to Mr. D's Admiral Ackbar :D
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,030

    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Holy crap, is this accurate?

    Classic Pix
    Almost 80% of the males born in the Soviet Union in 1923 did not survive World War II https://t.co/Au05r4FvbQ

    I think it is, Miss P. The figures have been around for years and I have never seen them refuted. Furthermore there is secondary evidence (e.g. birthrates) which would provide supporting evidence.

    The brutality of the Sovs towards their own people is scarcely to believed in this day and age. If you want to get a flavour for it I would suggest Anthony Beevor's book "Berlin".
    Looks like it was "only" 68%:

    http://blogs.warwick.ac.uk/markharrison/entry/was_the_soviet/
    Interesting article, Mr. D., thank you for bringing it to my attention.
    I posted it twice before he did :)

    I'm such a bastard :D
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,030

    Dr. Prasannan, you're Princess Leia to Mr. D's Admiral Ackbar :D

    I got this reference!
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    Sean_F said:

    RobD said:

    Miss Plato, I remember reading a WWII book which had a proportion of people from various countries who died. Russia was the highest (I think it was something like 1:22, but can't be certain).

    Prewar Poland lost more than a quarter of its population in the war, including 3 million Jewish Poles.

    I believe that Belarus and Ukraine possibly lost a higher proportion on current national boundaries.
    Staggering stat, 17% or 6 million in total. For context, the UK only lost 400,000, or 0.9%.
    Some of the figures for people killed in Eastern Europe almost defy belief. Unfortunately, they are correct.

    But, none match Paraguay, in percentage terms. In the mid nineteenth century, about 70% of the Paraguayan adult male population was killed in a disastrous war. The country tacitly allowed polygamy for several generations afterwards, to restore the population.
    Why several generations?
    Because the Paraguayans lost 300,000 people.

    According to some estimates, Paraguay's pre-war population of 525,000 was reduced to 221,000 of which only 28,000 were men.[8]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paraguayan_War
    Right, but if there's a "restocking" to be done you only need polygamy within the generations that have directly lost men.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,030

    PlatoSaid said:

    :)

    Godfrey Elfwick
    Very proud to have written this official statement for #BlackLivesMatterUK https://t.co/7shXB1KF9A

    His Twitter bio reads:

    Genderqueer Muslim atheist. Born white in the #WrongSkin. Itinerant jongleur. Xir, Xirs Xirself. Filters life through the lens of minority issues.

    'Nuff said.
    He sounds pretty racist.
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    Dr. Prasannan, you're Princess Leia to Mr. D's Admiral Ackbar :D

    "It's a honeytrap!" - Mr Vaz :lol:
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,030
    edited September 2016

    Sean_F said:

    RobD said:

    Miss Plato, I remember reading a WWII book which had a proportion of people from various countries who died. Russia was the highest (I think it was something like 1:22, but can't be certain).

    Prewar Poland lost more than a quarter of its population in the war, including 3 million Jewish Poles.

    I believe that Belarus and Ukraine possibly lost a higher proportion on current national boundaries.
    Staggering stat, 17% or 6 million in total. For context, the UK only lost 400,000, or 0.9%.
    Some of the figures for people killed in Eastern Europe almost defy belief. Unfortunately, they are correct.

    But, none match Paraguay, in percentage terms. In the mid nineteenth century, about 70% of the Paraguayan adult male population was killed in a disastrous war. The country tacitly allowed polygamy for several generations afterwards, to restore the population.
    Why several generations?
    Because the Paraguayans lost 300,000 people.

    According to some estimates, Paraguay's pre-war population of 525,000 was reduced to 221,000 of which only 28,000 were men.[8]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paraguayan_War
    Right, but if there's a "restocking" to be done you only need polygamy within the generations that have directly lost men.
    Depends just how many babies were made (and the gender balance) during the first wave of polygamy I suppose! :p
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    Oh Theresa, why did you employ him in the first place, everyone knows he's a preening bell end.

    Theresa May rebukes David Davis over warning that UK could leave the single market

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/06/theresa-may-rebukes-david-davis-over-warning-that-uk-could-leave/
  • Options

    Dr. Prasannan, you're Princess Leia to Mr. D's Admiral Ackbar :D

    "It's a honeytrap!" - Mr Vaz :lol:
    :+1:
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Sean_F said:

    RobD said:

    Miss Plato, I remember reading a WWII book which had a proportion of people from various countries who died. Russia was the highest (I think it was something like 1:22, but can't be certain).

    Prewar Poland lost more than a quarter of its population in the war, including 3 million Jewish Poles.

    I believe that Belarus and Ukraine possibly lost a higher proportion on current national boundaries.
    Staggering stat, 17% or 6 million in total. For context, the UK only lost 400,000, or 0.9%.
    Some of the figures for people killed in Eastern Europe almost defy belief. Unfortunately, they are correct.

    But, none match Paraguay, in percentage terms. In the mid nineteenth century, about 70% of the Paraguayan adult male population was killed in a disastrous war. The country tacitly allowed polygamy for several generations afterwards, to restore the population.
    Why several generations?
    Because the Paraguayans lost 300,000 people.

    According to some estimates, Paraguay's pre-war population of 525,000 was reduced to 221,000 of which only 28,000 were men.[8]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paraguayan_War
    :astonished:
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    Mr. D, of course you did. I am Morris Dancer, King of Masterful References.

    By sheer chance, I wrote a short story about the law and an illegal cock the other day. Once the small errors are ironed out I'll shove it up on the old website.
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited September 2016
    Changes in Clinton and Trump's prices at Betfair over the past six months have shown some clear macrostructure:

    image

    The market also seems to think Clinton is far more likely than Trump to drop out before election day, to judge by how Bernie Sanders is doing against Mike Pence and other possible Republican replacements for Trump. (Joe Biden's high price may be due to some punters' misunderstanding of the terms of the betting.)

    Julian Assange has declared that the Wikileaks intention is to knock Clinton out of the race prior to the first TV debate on 26 September. He has also justified focusing on damaging Clinton with reference to the idea that nobody could do a better job at damaging Trump than Trump is doing himself in the speeches he makes. That strikes me as an utterly two-faced explanation. Nobody can find anything on a billionaire casino owner who got his first break into construction and landlording in Manhattan thanks to lawyer Roy Cohn, other than what he himself is saying during his campaign. Really? I tell you something: I wouldn't employ Assange as an investigative journalist.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Johnny Mercer
    Got a bit carried away in Defence Committee today. Getting a little fed up with Gov't inaction on this. https://t.co/btihB2KnCD
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Oh Theresa, why did you employ him in the first place, everyone knows he's a preening bell end.

    Theresa May rebukes David Davis over warning that UK could leave the single market

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/06/theresa-may-rebukes-david-davis-over-warning-that-uk-could-leave/

    It's another shitty Clickograph headline that belies the actual story. I read Hansard after his Q&A yesterday and I thought he did a decent job. It's faint praise, but he's the best of the cabinet Brexiteers.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,223

    Oh Theresa, why did you employ him in the first place, everyone knows he's a preening bell end.

    Theresa May rebukes David Davis over warning that UK could leave the single market

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/06/theresa-may-rebukes-david-davis-over-warning-that-uk-could-leave/

    Good cop, bad cop. Gotta keep 'em guessing.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,030
    John_M said:

    Oh Theresa, why did you employ him in the first place, everyone knows he's a preening bell end.

    Theresa May rebukes David Davis over warning that UK could leave the single market

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/06/theresa-may-rebukes-david-davis-over-warning-that-uk-could-leave/

    It's another shitty Clickograph headline that belies the actual story. I read Hansard after his Q&A yesterday and I thought he did a decent job. It's faint praise, but he's the best of the cabinet Brexiteers.
    Telegraph is utterly woeful these days. I can only hope and pray that the print edition isn't as crap.
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    DavidL said:

    I remembered this being linked to a few months ago about WWII deaths: http://www.fallen.io/ww2/

    It is a stunning video but confirms that WWII was fought on the eastern front with some small bits added on here and there.

    Zhukov referred to El Alamein as a 'minor skirmish'! Dude.
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    @FoxinSox

    " Islanders would be better off being treated in Portsmouth or Southampton"

    Wouldn't that depend on what they were ill with and if a nasty how long it would take to evacuate them to the mainland? Air ambulance, probably OK. By road from Ventnor to the ferry, then across, and the by road to the Hospital (where ambulances maybe queued), is probably worse than taking your chances in St Mary's.

    That said I have had some experience of St. Mary's. Only in the area of blood testing and I found them more technologically advanced, more efficient and more friendly than either the RSCH or the Princess Royal.

    St Mary's is no place to be seriously ill.

    It scores well on some other aspects of care, like the convenience aspects. For 80% of ill patients the results are as good as the mainland.
    So what is that causes that 20% difference? Is it lack of kit? Is it crap staff? Shortage of experts? Unwillingness to refer patients to the mainland experts? Shortage of money?

    There has to be a reason why a modern hospital is performing so badly. Someone somewhere must be asking why?
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    John_M said:

    Oh Theresa, why did you employ him in the first place, everyone knows he's a preening bell end.

    Theresa May rebukes David Davis over warning that UK could leave the single market

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/06/theresa-may-rebukes-david-davis-over-warning-that-uk-could-leave/

    It's another shitty Clickograph headline that belies the actual story. I read Hansard after his Q&A yesterday and I thought he did a decent job. It's faint praise, but he's the best of the cabinet Brexiteers.

    Very faint praise.

  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,030
    Huge dump of SurveyMonkey polls on 538:

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/

    Boosted trump up a bit so must be on the round good for him.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,030
    RobD said:

    Huge dump of SurveyMonkey polls on 538:

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/

    Boosted trump up a bit so must be on the round good for him.

    LOL... although they do have Texas at a tie. Heh
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    John_M said:

    MaxPB said:

    Very poor US ISM figures, it definitely feels like the US economy is slowing down. Probably good news for Trump given that Hillary is the continuity candidate. Sterling up to almost $1.34 on the news as well.

    EZ growth figures were nothing to write home about either. Plod, plod, plod: the western economies.
    Indeed. One of the reasons people like Trump or Le Pen even get a look in is because the west is stuck in a rut of low and uneven growth. The poor are more likely to feel spending cuts and the least likely to feel the benefits of economic growth. Whether the government is Obama, Hollande, Cameron or others, there isn't an answer to this question that people are willing to accept or believe is true.
    The establishment everywhere exudes self satisfaction and complacence. But it is the politics of failure - and that increasingly doesn't win votes. People everywhere are sick to death of their politicians not delivering for them and are starting to get comfortable not voting for the same old same old. Most western countries need a popular reset. We got a sort of one with Brexit. The US might be about to get one. More will follow.
  • Options
    Someone with a surreal bent of mind must soon do a Ken talking about the Nazis again Downfall parody, surely.

    Well, at least we have managed to shut Ken up

    *Gulp*

    Fuhrer, Ken mentioned us again against your express orders ...

  • Options
    In Australian elections the candidates order is randomised in order to deal with the "Donkey Vote" effect that can be worth upto 2% of the vote. Especially there with compulsory voting.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,636
    edited September 2016

    Oh Theresa, why did you employ him in the first place, everyone knows he's a preening bell end.

    Theresa May rebukes David Davis over warning that UK could leave the single market

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/06/theresa-may-rebukes-david-davis-over-warning-that-uk-could-leave/

    TSE =a Son of a Whore :lol:
  • Options
    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited September 2016
    CNN/ORC national poll, fieldwork 1-4 September, shows Trump in the lead by 1%. Trump's implied probability at Betfair looks set to surge past its previous peaks of around 30% (price 3.3).
  • Options
    ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    Dromedary said:

    Changes in Clinton and Trump's prices at Betfair over the past six months have shown some clear macrostructure:

    image

    The market also seems to think Clinton is far more likely than Trump to drop out before election day, to judge by how Bernie Sanders is doing against Mike Pence and other possible Republican replacements for Trump. (Joe Biden's high price may be due to some punters' misunderstanding of the terms of the betting.)

    Julian Assange has declared that the Wikileaks intention is to knock Clinton out of the race prior to the first TV debate on 26 September. He has also justified focusing on damaging Clinton with reference to the idea that nobody could do a better job at damaging Trump than Trump is doing himself in the speeches he makes. That strikes me as an utterly two-faced explanation. Nobody can find anything on a billionaire casino owner who got his first break into construction and landlording in Manhattan thanks to lawyer Roy Cohn, other than what he himself is saying during his campaign. Really? I tell you something: I wouldn't employ Assange as an investigative journalist.

    Assange is sympathetic to Putin, wikileaks is a barely disguised front for Russian interests at times.
  • Options
    ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    RobD said:

    Huge dump of SurveyMonkey polls on 538:

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/

    Boosted trump up a bit so must be on the round good for him.

    Referred to this earlier, Clinton ahead in Texas is the only shock, in a few elections time maybe.
  • Options
    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Dromedary said:

    Changes in Clinton and Trump's prices at Betfair over the past six months have shown some clear macrostructure:

    image

    The market also seems to think Clinton is far more likely than Trump to drop out before election day, to judge by how Bernie Sanders is doing against Mike Pence and other possible Republican replacements for Trump. (Joe Biden's high price may be due to some punters' misunderstanding of the terms of the betting.)

    Julian Assange has declared that the Wikileaks intention is to knock Clinton out of the race prior to the first TV debate on 26 September. He has also justified focusing on damaging Clinton with reference to the idea that nobody could do a better job at damaging Trump than Trump is doing himself in the speeches he makes. That strikes me as an utterly two-faced explanation. Nobody can find anything on a billionaire casino owner who got his first break into construction and landlording in Manhattan thanks to lawyer Roy Cohn, other than what he himself is saying during his campaign. Really? I tell you something: I wouldn't employ Assange as an investigative journalist.

    The thing is, texts and emails are such a smoking gun. Whatever Trump has done, provided he did it outside electronic media he is safe as houses. As they say, pix or it didn't happen.

    I cannot believe the numptihood of people who don't realise this. I thought that clown Huhne was going to get off the speeding points thing, but he scuppered himself in text conversations with his son.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,636
    edited September 2016
    DavidL said:

    I remembered this being linked to a few months ago about WWII deaths: http://www.fallen.io/ww2/

    It is a stunning video but confirms that WWII was fought on the eastern front with some small bits added on here and there.

    Don't forget the Second Sino-Japanese War.
  • Options
    ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    edited September 2016
    Dromedary said:

    CNN/ORC national poll, fieldwork 1-4 September, shows Trump in the lead by 1%. Trump's implied probability at Betfair looks set to surge past its previous peaks of around 30% (price 3.3).

    Do people read? I pointed out the other three polls released showing Clinton ahead by 3, 4 & 6% ahead barely a page ago.

    If people only follow RCP they get a very incomplete picture.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,030
    Thrak said:

    RobD said:

    Huge dump of SurveyMonkey polls on 538:

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/

    Boosted trump up a bit so must be on the round good for him.

    Referred to this earlier, Clinton ahead in Texas is the only shock, in a few elections time maybe.
    Sorry, me being a bastard again ;)
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    US President Barack Obama has cancelled a meeting with controversial Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, who had earlier called him a "son of a whore".
    [...]
    In the past, President Duterte has called Pope Francis the "son of a whore", US Secretary of State John Kerry "crazy" and recently referred to the US ambassador to the Philippines a "gay son of a whore".


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-37281821
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited September 2016
    somebody else did it better
  • Options
    Thrak said:

    Dromedary said:

    Changes in Clinton and Trump's prices at Betfair over the past six months have shown some clear macrostructure:

    image

    The market also seems to think Clinton is far more likely than Trump to drop out before election day, to judge by how Bernie Sanders is doing against Mike Pence and other possible Republican replacements for Trump. (Joe Biden's high price may be due to some punters' misunderstanding of the terms of the betting.)

    Julian Assange has declared that the Wikileaks intention is to knock Clinton out of the race prior to the first TV debate on 26 September. He has also justified focusing on damaging Clinton with reference to the idea that nobody could do a better job at damaging Trump than Trump is doing himself in the speeches he makes. That strikes me as an utterly two-faced explanation. Nobody can find anything on a billionaire casino owner who got his first break into construction and landlording in Manhattan thanks to lawyer Roy Cohn, other than what he himself is saying during his campaign. Really? I tell you something: I wouldn't employ Assange as an investigative journalist.

    Assange is sympathetic to Putin, wikileaks is a barely disguised front for Russian interests at times.
    Obama and Clinton are sympathetic to Brussels?
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Zhukov referred to El Alamein as a 'minor skirmish'! Dude. ''

    Raw manpower has historically been a weakness for Britain. We've always had to husband troop resources. Maybe that's why the Somme is so deep in the pysche.
  • Options

    Oh Theresa, why did you employ him in the first place, everyone knows he's a preening bell end.

    Theresa May rebukes David Davis over warning that UK could leave the single market

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/06/theresa-may-rebukes-david-davis-over-warning-that-uk-could-leave/

    TSE =a Son of a Whore :lol:
    Careful, you'll upset slow TCPoliticalBetting with those kinds of misogynistic insults.
  • Options
    ThrakThrak Posts: 494

    US President Barack Obama has cancelled a meeting with controversial Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, who had earlier called him a "son of a whore".
    [...]
    In the past, President Duterte has called Pope Francis the "son of a whore", US Secretary of State John Kerry "crazy" and recently referred to the US ambassador to the Philippines a "gay son of a whore".


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-37281821

    He appears to have a very limited range of insults.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,883
    edited September 2016

    John_M said:

    Oh Theresa, why did you employ him in the first place, everyone knows he's a preening bell end.

    Theresa May rebukes David Davis over warning that UK could leave the single market

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/06/theresa-may-rebukes-david-davis-over-warning-that-uk-could-leave/

    It's another shitty Clickograph headline that belies the actual story. I read Hansard after his Q&A yesterday and I thought he did a decent job. It's faint praise, but he's the best of the cabinet Brexiteers.

    Very faint praise.

    I think David Davis is serious unlike the other two. Every government has a middle to low ranking minister that gets sent out to defend flimsy policies while the rest take cover. I think Mr Davis is that minister for the May regime. He was in N Ireland a couple days ago insisting there will be no post-Brexit border between North and South. As if anyone is going to think, "If DD says it, it must be so!"
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    taffys said:

    ''Zhukov referred to El Alamein as a 'minor skirmish'! Dude. ''

    Raw manpower has historically been a weakness for Britain. We've always had to husband troop resources. Maybe that's why the Somme is so deep in the pysche.

    It's why richer but less populous countries should focus on firepower not boots.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    AndyJS said:

    FPT:

    Clinton's average national lead down to 3.3 points. A bit close for comfort from her point of view:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

    The CNN/ORC Poll giving Trump +1 has a fairly anomalous Republican/Democract/Independents split.

    Lets unskew those polls!
  • Options

    Oh Theresa, why did you employ him in the first place, everyone knows he's a preening bell end.

    Theresa May rebukes David Davis over warning that UK could leave the single market

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/06/theresa-may-rebukes-david-davis-over-warning-that-uk-could-leave/

    TSE =a Son of a Whore :lol:
    Careful, you'll upset slow TCPoliticalBetting with those kinds of misogynistic insults.
    Gay Son of A Whore? :lol:
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @GdnPolitics: Jeremy Corbyn fails to win backing of other UB40 https://t.co/nHXzDZDHKS
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    taffys said:

    ''Zhukov referred to El Alamein as a 'minor skirmish'! Dude. ''

    Raw manpower has historically been a weakness for Britain. We've always had to husband troop resources. Maybe that's why the Somme is so deep in the pysche.

    Or it's guilt because of why the Somme happened.

    (Look at the numbers of Ulster Volunteers before and after the first week. Lloyd George didn't like the UUP having a private army. So he got them killed).
  • Options
    Charles said:

    taffys said:

    ''Zhukov referred to El Alamein as a 'minor skirmish'! Dude. ''

    Raw manpower has historically been a weakness for Britain. We've always had to husband troop resources. Maybe that's why the Somme is so deep in the pysche.

    Or it's guilt because of why the Somme happened.

    (Look at the numbers of Ulster Volunteers before and after the first week. Lloyd George didn't like the UUP having a private army. So he got them killed).
    He still lost 26 counties of Ireland in the end.
  • Options
    619619 Posts: 1,784
    Thrak said:

    Dromedary said:

    Changes in Clinton and Trump's prices at Betfair over the past six months have shown some clear macrostructure:

    image

    The market also seems to think Clinton is far more likely than Trump to drop out before election day, to judge by how Bernie Sanders is doing against Mike Pence and other possible Republican replacements for Trump. (Joe Biden's high price may be due to some punters' misunderstanding of the terms of the betting.)

    Julian Assange has declared that the Wikileaks intention is to knock Clinton out of the race prior to the first TV debate on 26 September. He has also justified focusing on damaging Clinton with reference to the idea that nobody could do a better job at damaging Trump than Trump is doing himself in the speeches he makes. That strikes me as an utterly two-faced explanation. Nobody can find anything on a billionaire casino owner who got his first break into construction and landlording in Manhattan thanks to lawyer Roy Cohn, other than what he himself is saying during his campaign. Really? I tell you something: I wouldn't employ Assange as an investigative journalist.

    Assange is sympathetic to Putin, wikileaks is a barely disguised front for Russian interests at times.
    Assange and Trump are just Putin's puppet's at the moment. He clearly is Pro-Putin at the moment.

    I also think Assange is a blowhard and that there is no black swan or smoking gun.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    taffys said:

    ''Zhukov referred to El Alamein as a 'minor skirmish'! Dude. ''

    Raw manpower has historically been a weakness for Britain. We've always had to husband troop resources. Maybe that's why the Somme is so deep in the pysche.

    Or it's guilt because of why the Somme happened.

    (Look at the numbers of Ulster Volunteers before and after the first week. Lloyd George didn't like the UUP having a private army. So he got them killed).
    He still lost 26 counties of Ireland in the end.
    Partition was already a given (following the Buckingham Palace Conference in 1914).
  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited September 2016
    Scott_P said:

    @GdnPolitics: Jeremy Corbyn fails to win backing of other UB40 https://t.co/nHXzDZDHKS

    The whole article could have been lifted from an earlier discussion here on PB. #PRstuntFail
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited September 2016
    Patrick said:

    MaxPB said:

    John_M said:

    MaxPB said:

    Very poor US ISM figures, it definitely feels like the US economy is slowing down. Probably good news for Trump given that Hillary is the continuity candidate. Sterling up to almost $1.34 on the news as well.

    EZ growth figures were nothing to write home about either. Plod, plod, plod: the western economies.
    Indeed. One of the reasons people like Trump or Le Pen even get a look in is because the west is stuck in a rut of low and uneven growth. The poor are more likely to feel spending cuts and the least likely to feel the benefits of economic growth. Whether the government is Obama, Hollande, Cameron or others, there isn't an answer to this question that people are willing to accept or believe is true.
    The establishment everywhere exudes self satisfaction and complacence. But it is the politics of failure - and that increasingly doesn't win votes. People everywhere are sick to death of their politicians not delivering for them and are starting to get comfortable not voting for the same old same old. Most western countries need a popular reset. We got a sort of one with Brexit. The US might be about to get one. More will follow.
    Think it's worth revisiting something I posted at the weekend. The UK economy has generally grown by about 25% per decade. In the ten years post-crash it's likely to come in at around half that - and it's the best performing of the big four European economies.

    Combined with increased debt servicing costs and we're pretty much out of options. Assuming #Brexit punts the deficit reduction target to 2020-1, those costs will rise to ~4.5% of GDP.
This discussion has been closed.