The last two questions are arguably the most interesting ones (doing as well as early Tony Blair is a pretty high bar - odd question). Corbyn supporters broadly want to bring the rebels back into the fold, and 31% of Smith supporters agree - similar to the 29% who don't want a 3rd leadership challenge (+15% don't know). I'd think that most MPs will take the hint - a new challenger next year will only get a subset of Smith votes.
Well since if there is a leadership challenge next year, the selectorate would be even more pro-Corbyn than this year, the anti-Corbyn faction would be crushed even more.
As time passes more pro-Corbyn people sign up and more anti-Corbyn people drop out of the Labour party.
And so the delusion continues.
Con gain Bootle?
Now that's a delusion.
The Tories coming from third to win a Labour seat with a 28000 majority.
Con gain Bootle is a common catchphrase around here... not supposed to indicate that they will actually gain Bootle.
Why Bootle, anyway? It isn't quite the safest seat is it?
Used to be safe enough that Andrew Bonar Law was MP for Bootle while serving as Leader of the Opposition and then Chancellor
So you Trump rampers, what do you think Trump's share of the vote will be in say Washington DC?
Hardly ramping, just don't think he can be written off as so many are doing. Hillary is a weak candidate, incredibly weak. It feels eerily similar to around March/April of this year with the Remain side saying it was all over, the Leave camp was in shambles and Obama would lead to a 60/40 result for Remain. In a campaign where an insurgent faces off against the establishment the insurgent always has a chance of pulling off a shock victory, just as we saw in June.
Don't misunderstand my position, I don't want Trump to win, I thought he would pivot, but he hasn't and I think he would be a dangerous President. With Clinton we know what we get, boring but predictable. I have no enthusiasm for Clinton but were I an American I would vote for her despite probably preferring Johnson as a candidate.
I have to say, Mr. Max, that when I go to the town on Wednesday I will pop into the bookies and try and put down a modest wager on Trump winning. Nothing to do with my preferences, I don't really have any, or polls or any data. Simply on the basis of the consensus on here.
People who called the 2015 GE and the referendum so completely wrong are now so certain about an election in a foreign land that it must be worth a few quid betting that they will get it wrong again.
OT the National Savings site is still down (or it's up but you cannot log in) after a problem deploying the new version.
Whoops! Whenever I have a bad day at work, I know that some IT guy somewhere else is always having a worse day than me. For the last few months that person has been Hillary Clinton's IT guy!
The biggest difference is that Brexit was able to form a coalition of disparate voters by being, in itself, a loose coalition. Remain found itself unable to get enough decent hits on such a nebulous target. With Trump, however, it's all about him. If the USA votes for him, it will be admitting that they are him, a far right, bigoted demagogue. Brexit voters could say they were one of many different things, depending on their own conscience.
" it will be admitting that they are him, a far right, bigoted demagogue" - as smeared by the MSM, CNN.
Where are Clinton's Policies? In fact - where is Clinton?
OT the National Savings site is still down (or it's up but you cannot log in) after a problem deploying the new version.
Whoops! Whenever I have a bad day at work, I know that some IT guy somewhere else is always having a worse day than me. For the last few months that person has been Hillary Clinton's IT guy!
Is he going to be charged with anything, given that he deleted the emails *after* being subpoenaed by Congress?
The biggest difference is that Brexit was able to form a coalition of disparate voters by being, in itself, a loose coalition. Remain found itself unable to get enough decent hits on such a nebulous target. With Trump, however, it's all about him. If the USA votes for him, it will be admitting that they are him, a far right, bigoted demagogue. Brexit voters could say they were one of many different things, depending on their own conscience.
" it will be admitting that they are him, a far right, bigoted demagogue" - as smeared by the MSM, CNN.
Where are Clinton's Policies? In fact - where is Clinton?
Clinton's platform and policies are to the left of Obama and fairly left of Bill.
So you Trump rampers, what do you think Trump's share of the vote will be in say Washington DC?
Hardly ramping, just don't think he can be written off as so many are doing. Hillary is a weak candidate, incredibly weak. It feels eerily similar to around March/April of this year with the Remain side saying it was all over, the Leave camp was in shambles and Obama would lead to a 60/40 result for Remain. In a campaign where an insurgent faces off against the establishment the insurgent always has a chance of pulling off a shock victory, just as we saw in June.
Don't misunderstand my position, I don't want Trump to win, I thought he would pivot, but he hasn't and I think he would be a dangerous President. With Clinton we know what we get, boring but predictable. I have no enthusiasm for Clinton but were I an American I would vote for her despite probably preferring Johnson as a candidate.
I have to say, Mr. Max, that when I go to the town on Wednesday I will pop into the bookies and try and put down a modest wager on Trump winning. Nothing to do with my preferences, I don't really have any, or polls or any data. Simply on the basis of the consensus on here.
People who called the 2015 GE and the referendum so completely wrong are now so certain about an election in a foreign land that it must be worth a few quid betting that they will get it wrong again.
Ha ha. Watching from afar I really can't call this one, agree with @TSE about the SpIn EC votes market being a complete mug's game. It could be a landslide in either direction, or closer than Bush v Gore, and I'm not sure anyone really knows what's going on. State 'polls' which are 100 response subsamples with 30 DK responses don't help much either!
When SPIN open their Electoral college vote spreads, can you all remind me not to go balls deep on that market. I reckon I'll let my detestation of Trump colour my betting.
Is this a euphemism to how long Ed will last in Strictly?
OT the National Savings site is still down (or it's up but you cannot log in) after a problem deploying the new version.
Whoops! Whenever I have a bad day at work, I know that some IT guy somewhere else is always having a worse day than me. For the last few months that person has been Hillary Clinton's IT guy!
Is he going to be charged with anything, given that he deleted the emails *after* being subpoenaed by Congress?
Not sure, there's still confusion about the timeline and exactly who did what in relation to the clintonemail.com server. Fair to say that there's a few people involved who are going to struggle to find employment ever again - meanwhile the person in charge appears to be made of Teflon and is favourite to be POTUS in five months' time!
Hawaii should go Clinton. Alaska possibly Trump. I am surprised about Ohio. I suppose the WWC are playing a part here. But Florida seems stronger for the Dems than 12/16 years ago.
Hawaii should be a slam dunk for Clinton. I guess there have just been so few polls they aren't forecasting it.
If we want a list of states, here you go:
Safe Hillary. (100%)
Vermont Massachusetts New York California Hawaii Washington Maryland New Jersey
Likely Hillary (80-99%)
Illinois Minnesota Rhode Island Delaware New Mexico
Lean Hillary(60-80%)
Colorado Virginia Pennsylvania New Hampshire North Carolina Wisconsin Connecticut Maine Florida Michigan Oregon
OT the National Savings site is still down (or it's up but you cannot log in) after a problem deploying the new version.
Whoops! Whenever I have a bad day at work, I know that some IT guy somewhere else is always having a worse day than me. For the last few months that person has been Hillary Clinton's IT guy!
Is he going to be charged with anything, given that he deleted the emails *after* being subpoenaed by Congress?
Not sure, there's still confusion about the timeline and exactly who did what in relation to the clintonemail.com server. Fair to say that there's a few people involved who are going to struggle to find employment ever again - meanwhile the person in charge appears to be made of Teflon and is favourite to be POTUS in five months' time!
Job roles will always be available at the Clinton Foundation. Most of previous Clinton staffer already do.
OT the National Savings site is still down (or it's up but you cannot log in) after a problem deploying the new version.
Whoops! Whenever I have a bad day at work, I know that some IT guy somewhere else is always having a worse day than me. For the last few months that person has been Hillary Clinton's IT guy!
Is he going to be charged with anything, given that he deleted the emails *after* being subpoenaed by Congress?
Not sure, there's still confusion about the timeline and exactly who did what in relation to the clintonemail.com server. Fair to say that there's a few people involved who are going to struggle to find employment ever again - meanwhile the person in charge appears to be made of Teflon and is favourite to be POTUS in five months' time!
The NY Times article I read a few days ago was pretty convincing that the deletion occurred after the subpoena, and that a specialist piece of software was used to wipe it.
Where are Clinton's Policies? In fact - where is Clinton?
As I'm sure you're aware, HRC is doing the more old-fashioned campaigning - small scale stops and rallies through the swing states. Probably getting a lot of local media coverage even if not favoured by Fox and its conservative bias.
Tim Kaine is probably doing the same as is Mike Pence - that's the real nature of US campaigning, not the big-ticket rallies.
Where are Clinton's Policies? In fact - where is Clinton?
As I'm sure you're aware, HRC is doing the more old-fashioned campaigning - small scale stops and rallies through the swing states. Probably getting a lot of local media coverage even if not favoured by Fox and its conservative bias.
Tim Kaine is probably doing the same as is Mike Pence - that's the real nature of US campaigning, not the big-ticket rallies.
Is she having five million conversations? titters....
So you Trump rampers, what do you think Trump's share of the vote will be in say Washington DC?
Hardly ramping, just don't think he can be written off as so many are doing. Hillary is a weak candidate, incredibly weak. It feels eerily similar to around March/April of this year with the Remain side saying it was all over, the Leave camp was in shambles and Obama would lead to a 60/40 result for Remain. In a campaign where an insurgent faces off against the establishment the insurgent always has a chance of pulling off a shock victory, just as we saw in June.
Don't misunderstand my position, I don't want Trump to win, I thought he would pivot, but he hasn't and I think he would be a dangerous President. With Clinton we know what we get, boring but predictable. I have no enthusiasm for Clinton but were I an American I would vote for her despite probably preferring Johnson as a candidate.
I have to say, Mr. Max, that when I go to the town on Wednesday I will pop into the bookies and try and put down a modest wager on Trump winning. Nothing to do with my preferences, I don't really have any, or polls or any data. Simply on the basis of the consensus on here.
People who called the 2015 GE and the referendum so completely wrong are now so certain about an election in a foreign land that it must be worth a few quid betting that they will get it wrong again.
I think that is a bit mis-recalling the run up to Brexit, indeed some of those threads merit a re-read. My own comment from May 29th for example:
"On topic, I have long thought the value bet is on Leave. I have a decent sum on at 4.8 average. The odds on Remain under 45% are even better. My plan was to go all Green as the odds narrowed, but sadly they have been stubbonly resistant to budging".
I cannot see much value on Trump. When you look at the EC votes it is very difficult for Trump to win.
The closest to value betting that I can see is the state betting, where some of the swing and leaning Trump states offer some value on Democrat winning.
OT the National Savings site is still down (or it's up but you cannot log in) after a problem deploying the new version.
Whoops! Whenever I have a bad day at work, I know that some IT guy somewhere else is always having a worse day than me. For the last few months that person has been Hillary Clinton's IT guy!
Is he going to be charged with anything, given that he deleted the emails *after* being subpoenaed by Congress?
Not sure, there's still confusion about the timeline and exactly who did what in relation to the clintonemail.com server. Fair to say that there's a few people involved who are going to struggle to find employment ever again - meanwhile the person in charge appears to be made of Teflon and is favourite to be POTUS in five months' time!
The NY Times article I read a few days ago was pretty convincing that the deletion occurred after the subpoena, and that a specialist piece of software was used to wipe it.
I guess it would depend on whom the subpoena was served, who ordered the formatting of the disks and if the guy doing the work was aware of it.
Personally, that's the sort of order one requests in writing before the work is carried out. Properly in writing, with a signature in ink on the bottom of the note.
I presume someone may have already commented upon this, but if you want to be pedantic about the MI5/MI6 thing, despite using those labels it is not as though those are their official organization names is it?
Some interesting stuff here. A lot of madness, naturally, but interesting.
However I don't believe Smith supporters would truly back splitting off to a new party to such an extent - it's one of those things they might dream about, but would never do en masse to even 1/4 of Smith supporters. Slightly more saying to support Corbyn I note, and given the atmosphere, probably more than admit to that would feel the same.
Where are Clinton's Policies? In fact - where is Clinton?
As I'm sure you're aware, HRC is doing the more old-fashioned campaigning - small scale stops and rallies through the swing states. Probably getting a lot of local media coverage even if not favoured by Fox and its conservative bias.
Tim Kaine is probably doing the same as is Mike Pence - that's the real nature of US campaigning, not the big-ticket rallies.
Actually Trump does that.
He has done twice the number of rallies than Hillary, I even put the list down on PB a few days ago.
Hillary is more focused on TV ads.
Trump Campaign= pre 1960 Hillary Campaign= after 1960
Trump and GOP are still chasing this email thing (and from the wrong end imo -- they should switch from security to FOI as the latter is more likely to worry the HRC-inclined).
Where are Clinton's Policies? In fact - where is Clinton?
As I'm sure you're aware, HRC is doing the more old-fashioned campaigning - small scale stops and rallies through the swing states. Probably getting a lot of local media coverage even if not favoured by Fox and its conservative bias.
Tim Kaine is probably doing the same as is Mike Pence - that's the real nature of US campaigning, not the big-ticket rallies.
Actually Trump does that.
He has done twice the number of rallies than Hillary, I even put the list down on PB a few days ago.
Hillary is more focused on TV ads.
Trump Campaign= pre 1960 Hillary Campaign= after 1960
Trump has 2 million more Twitter followers than Clinton and live streams his rallies. He is the one redefining political campaigning for a new era by disintermediating the process.
Trump and GOP are still chasing this email thing (and from the wrong end imo -- they should switch from security to FOI as the latter is more likely to worry the HRC-inclined).
BBC News suggests May refusing to commit to the points based immigration system the Vote Leave campaign committed to as 'there is no evidence it works '. More evidence she is moving towards a limited free movement and limited single market membership deal and away from full hard BREXIT
The last two questions are arguably the most interesting ones (doing as well as early Tony Blair is a pretty high bar - odd question). Corbyn supporters broadly want to bring the rebels back into the fold, and 31% of Smith supporters agree - similar to the 29% who don't want a 3rd leadership challenge (+15% don't know). I'd think that most MPs will take the hint - a new challenger next year will only get a subset of Smith votes.
Well since if there is a leadership challenge next year, the selectorate would be even more pro-Corbyn than this year, the anti-Corbyn faction would be crushed even more.
As time passes more pro-Corbyn people sign up and more anti-Corbyn people drop out of the Labour party.
And so the delusion continues.
Con gain Bootle?
Now that's a delusion.
The Tories coming from third to win a Labour seat with a 28000 majority.
Con gain Bootle is a common catchphrase around here... not supposed to indicate that they will actually gain Bootle.
Why Bootle, anyway? It isn't quite the safest seat is it?
Used to be safe enough that Andrew Bonar Law was MP for Bootle while serving as Leader of the Opposition and then Chancellor
Trump and GOP are still chasing this email thing (and from the wrong end imo -- they should switch from security to FOI as the latter is more likely to worry the HRC-inclined).
The pay to play thing is most damaging imo.
It's crap though, the AP have admitted their story is garbo.
So you Trump rampers, what do you think Trump's share of the vote will be in say Washington DC?
Hardly ramping, just don't think he can be written off as so many are doing. Hillary is a weak candidate, incredibly weak. It feels eerily similar to around March/April of this year with the Remain side saying it was all over, the Leave camp was in shambles and Obama would lead to a 60/40 result for Remain. In a campaign where an insurgent faces off against the establishment the insurgent always has a chance of pulling off a shock victory, just as we saw in June.
Don't misunderstand my position, I don't want Trump to win, I thought he would pivot, but he hasn't and I think he would be a dangerous President. With Clinton we know what we get, boring but predictable. I have no enthusiasm for Clinton but were I an American I would vote for her despite probably preferring Johnson as a candidate.
I have to say, Mr. Max, that when I go to the town on Wednesday I will pop into the bookies and try and put down a modest wager on Trump winning. Nothing to do with my preferences, I don't really have any, or polls or any data. Simply on the basis of the consensus on here.
People who called the 2015 GE and the referendum so completely wrong are now so certain about an election in a foreign land that it must be worth a few quid betting that they will get it wrong again.
I think that is a bit mis-recalling the run up to Brexit, indeed some of those threads merit a re-read. My own comment from May 29th for example:
"On topic, I have long thought the value bet is on Leave. I have a decent sum on at 4.8 average. The odds on Remain under 45% are even better. My plan was to go all Green as the odds narrowed, but sadly they have been stubbonly resistant to budging".
I cannot see much value on Trump. When you look at the EC votes it is very difficult for Trump to win.
The closest to value betting that I can see is the state betting, where some of the swing and leaning Trump states offer some value on Democrat winning.
I am quite sure you are right Doc. However, some on here have been so sure and so wrong in the past and are now so sure once again on an election and an electorate I doubt they really understand that it has got to be worth a few quid betting that they will get it wrong again.
Out of a sample of 62. Excluding D/K it's the same as yougov.
Such a pointless sample size and such a rookie mistake to reveal internal numbers like that
Well it reminds me that internal poll rumour from the Smith campaign that Corbyn was bellow 50% without of course revealing the Smith figures.
Many were joking Corbyn 49-Smith 1, in this case Smith's own figures show Corbyn 48-Smith 29, which after excluding the undecideds it's exactly the 62-38 that yougov found.
A good reason for Smith not to reveal what his own poll says about him.
BBC News suggests May refusing to commit to the points based immigration system the Vote Leave campaign committed to as 'there is no evidence it works '. More evidence she is moving towards a limited free movement and limited single market membership deal and away from full hard BREXIT
The other explanation is that she's being vague and trying to avoid getting pinned down on anything while she tries to work out wtf she's going to do.
BBC News suggests May refusing to commit to the points based immigration system the Vote Leave campaign committed to as 'there is no evidence it works '. More evidence she is moving towards a limited free movement and limited single market membership deal and away from full hard BREXIT
The other explanation is that she's being vague and trying to avoid getting pinned down on anything while she tries to work out wtf she's going to do.
Has there been much coverage in Japan of that memo to the UK about Brexit?
I get this nagging feeling the Japanese government has done more work on Brexit than the UK government.
Some Leave voters still think Trump = Leave. Doesn't matter one poll found 0% favourable rating for him with AA voters, I just hope they don't bet in this basis.
We need a thread from someone actually based there.
Historically pb people not based in the US have been pretty good at predicting their politics.
BBC News suggests May refusing to commit to the points based immigration system the Vote Leave campaign committed to as 'there is no evidence it works '. More evidence she is moving towards a limited free movement and limited single market membership deal and away from full hard BREXIT
The other explanation is that she's being vague and trying to avoid getting pinned down on anything while she tries to work out wtf she's going to do.
I think the G20 has focused her mind somewhat, in terms of annoying IDS and Farage or annoying Japan and seeing factories shipped off to the Continent she will go for the former, there will be some migration controls but otherwise free movement will continue in some form to ensure we get some single market membership
BBC News suggests May refusing to commit to the points based immigration system the Vote Leave campaign committed to as 'there is no evidence it works '. More evidence she is moving towards a limited free movement and limited single market membership deal and away from full hard BREXIT
The other explanation is that she's being vague and trying to avoid getting pinned down on anything while she tries to work out wtf she's going to do.
I think the G20 has focused her mind somewhat, in terms of annoying IDS and Farage or annoying Japan and seeing factories shipped off to the Continent she will go for the former, there will be some migration controls but otherwise free movement will continue in some form to ensure we get some single market membership
If anything the Telegraph article suggests she thinks the points-based system is not restrictive enough:
BBC News suggests May refusing to commit to the points based immigration system the Vote Leave campaign committed to as 'there is no evidence it works '. More evidence she is moving towards a limited free movement and limited single market membership deal and away from full hard BREXIT
The other explanation is that she's being vague and trying to avoid getting pinned down on anything while she tries to work out wtf she's going to do.
Being vague and trying to avoid getting pinned down on anything is what she's going to do like a good student at the school of Merkeling.
BBC News suggests May refusing to commit to the points based immigration system the Vote Leave campaign committed to as 'there is no evidence it works '. More evidence she is moving towards a limited free movement and limited single market membership deal and away from full hard BREXIT
The other explanation is that she's being vague and trying to avoid getting pinned down on anything while she tries to work out wtf she's going to do.
I think the G20 has focused her mind somewhat, in terms of annoying IDS and Farage or annoying Japan and seeing factories shipped off to the Continent she will go for the former, there will be some migration controls but otherwise free movement will continue in some form to ensure we get some single market membership
If anything the Telegraph article suggests she thinks the points-based system is not restrictive enough:
The Telegraph can think what it wants and spin how it wants but a points based system would have made any free movement deal very difficult, moving away from it leaves the door open for a free movement deal of some form. As the Times says tomorrow she remains open to favourable treatment for EU nationals
So you Trump rampers, what do you think Trump's share of the vote will be in say Washington DC?
Hardly ramping, just don't think he can be written off as so many are doing. Hillary is a weak candidate, incredibly weak. It feels eerily similar to around March/April of this year with the Remain side saying it was all over, the Leave camp was in shambles and Obama would lead to a 60/40 result for Remain. In a campaign where an insurgent faces off against the establishment the insurgent always has a chance of pulling off a shock victory, just as we saw in June.
Don't misunderstand my position, I don't want Trump to win, I thought he would pivot, but he hasn't and I think he would be a dangerous President. With Clinton we know what we get, boring but predictable. I have no enthusiasm for Clinton but were I an American I would vote for her despite probably preferring Johnson as a candidate.
I have to say, Mr. Max, that when I go to the town on Wednesday I will pop into the bookies and try and put down a modest wager on Trump winning. Nothing to do with my preferences, I don't really have any, or polls or any data. Simply on the basis of the consensus on here.
People who called the 2015 GE and the referendum so completely wrong are now so certain about an election in a foreign land that it must be worth a few quid betting that they will get it wrong again.
I think that is a bit mis-recalling the run up to Brexit, indeed some of those threads merit a re-read. My own comment from May 29th for example:
"On topic, I have long thought the value bet is on Leave. I have a decent sum on at 4.8 average. The odds on Remain under 45% are even better. My plan was to go all Green as the odds narrowed, but sadly they have been stubbonly resistant to budging".
I cannot see much value on Trump. When you look at the EC votes it is very difficult for Trump to win.
The closest to value betting that I can see is the state betting, where some of the swing and leaning Trump states offer some value on Democrat winning.
However, some on here have been so sure and so wrong in the past and are now so sure once again
It's a characteristic usually only found among professional pundits.
BBC News suggests May refusing to commit to the points based immigration system the Vote Leave campaign committed to as 'there is no evidence it works '. More evidence she is moving towards a limited free movement and limited single market membership deal and away from full hard BREXIT
The other explanation is that she's being vague and trying to avoid getting pinned down on anything while she tries to work out wtf she's going to do.
I think the G20 has focused her mind somewhat, in terms of annoying IDS and Farage or annoying Japan and seeing factories shipped off to the Continent she will go for the former, there will be some migration controls but otherwise free movement will continue in some form to ensure we get some single market membership
If anything the Telegraph article suggests she thinks the points-based system is not restrictive enough:
The Telegraph can think what it wants and spin how it wants but a points based system would have made any free movement deal very difficult, moving away from it leaves the door open for a free movement deal of some form
Not sure you can have a quota system and free movement though?
BBC News suggests May refusing to commit to the points based immigration system the Vote Leave campaign committed to as 'there is no evidence it works '. More evidence she is moving towards a limited free movement and limited single market membership deal and away from full hard BREXIT
The other explanation is that she's being vague and trying to avoid getting pinned down on anything while she tries to work out wtf she's going to do.
Being vague and trying to avoid getting pinned down on anything is what she's going to do like a good student at the school of Merkeling.
Works most of the time, but eventually, or at times of crisis, it can bite you in the arse.
BBC News suggests May refusing to commit to the points based immigration system the Vote Leave campaign committed to as 'there is no evidence it works '. More evidence she is moving towards a limited free movement and limited single market membership deal and away from full hard BREXIT
The other explanation is that she's being vague and trying to avoid getting pinned down on anything while she tries to work out wtf she's going to do.
Being vague and trying to avoid getting pinned down on anything is what she's going to do like a good student at the school of Merkeling.
Works most of the time, but eventually, or at times of crisis, it can bite you in the arse.
Well in this case there's no crisis until she actually does something...
BBC News suggests May refusing to commit to the points based immigration system the Vote Leave campaign committed to as 'there is no evidence it works '. More evidence she is moving towards a limited free movement and limited single market membership deal and away from full hard BREXIT
The other explanation is that she's being vague and trying to avoid getting pinned down on anything while she tries to work out wtf she's going to do.
I think the G20 has focused her mind somewhat, in terms of annoying IDS and Farage or annoying Japan and seeing factories shipped off to the Continent she will go for the former, there will be some migration controls but otherwise free movement will continue in some form to ensure we get some single market membership
If anything the Telegraph article suggests she thinks the points-based system is not restrictive enough:
The Telegraph can think what it wants and spin how it wants but a points based system would have made any free movement deal very difficult, moving away from it leaves the door open for a free movement deal of some form
Not sure you can have a quota system and free movement though?
You can if you only apply quotas in certain sectors and allow free movement in others
BBC News suggests May refusing to commit to the points based immigration system the Vote Leave campaign committed to as 'there is no evidence it works '. More evidence she is moving towards a limited free movement and limited single market membership deal and away from full hard BREXIT
The other explanation is that she's being vague and trying to avoid getting pinned down on anything while she tries to work out wtf she's going to do.
I think the G20 has focused her mind somewhat, in terms of annoying IDS and Farage or annoying Japan and seeing factories shipped off to the Continent she will go for the former, there will be some migration controls but otherwise free movement will continue in some form to ensure we get some single market membership
If anything the Telegraph article suggests she thinks the points-based system is not restrictive enough:
The Telegraph can think what it wants and spin how it wants but a points based system would have made any free movement deal very difficult, moving away from it leaves the door open for a free movement deal of some form
Not sure you can have a quota system and free movement though?
You can if you only apply quotas in certain sectors and allow free movement in others
By that logic surely you can have a points-based system in certain sectors and free movement in others? Whether or not the EU would agree to such a thing is another matter, and I strongly suspect they wouldn't accept any partial free movement deal, given it is a core principle of the single market.
BBC News suggests May refusing to commit to the points based immigration system the Vote Leave campaign committed to as 'there is no evidence it works '. More evidence she is moving towards a limited free movement and limited single market membership deal and away from full hard BREXIT
The other explanation is that she's being vague and trying to avoid getting pinned down on anything while she tries to work out wtf she's going to do.
I think the G20 has focused her mind somewhat, in terms of annoying IDS and Farage or annoying Japan and seeing factories shipped off to the Continent she will go for the former, there will be some migration controls but otherwise free movement will continue in some form to ensure we get some single market membership
If anything the Telegraph article suggests she thinks the points-based system is not restrictive enough:
The Telegraph can think what it wants and spin how it wants but a points based system would have made any free movement deal very difficult, moving away from it leaves the door open for a free movement deal of some form
Not sure you can have a quota system and free movement though?
You can if you only apply quotas in certain sectors and allow free movement in others
By that logic surely you can have a points-based system in certain sectors and free movement in others? Whether or not the EU would agree to such a thing is another matter, and I strongly suspect they wouldn't accept any partial free movement deal, given it is a core principle of the single market.
Not true, an EU Commission official has said the EU was open to limited free movement for limited single market membership, a points based system by its very nature would compromise free movement, May moving away from it gives her the flexibility to agree full free movement in whatever sectors it is needed with some controls elsewhere and also to maintain the principle of favourable treatment of EU nationals in those sectors if needed unlike the more skills based points system
I presume the talk of going balls deep unprotected, feeling horny, poppers, & coke are decorating terms I am unfamiliar with.
Like traingate, these people do realise that videos can be uploaded to the internet & everybody can watch them on their wireless person to person talking machine.
BBC News suggests May refusing to commit to the points based immigration system the Vote Leave campaign committed to as 'there is no evidence it works '. More evidence she is moving towards a limited free movement and limited single market membership deal and away from full hard BREXIT
The other explanation is that she's being vague and trying to avoid getting pinned down on anything while she tries to work out wtf she's going to do.
I think the G20 has focused her mind somewhat, in terms of annoying IDS and Farage or annoying Japan and seeing factories shipped off to the Continent she will go for the former, there will be some migration controls but otherwise free movement will continue in some form to ensure we get some single market membership
If anything the Telegraph article suggests she thinks the points-based system is not restrictive enough:
The Telegraph can think what it wants and spin how it wants but a points based system would have made any free movement deal very difficult, moving away from it leaves the door open for a free movement deal of some form
Not sure you can have a quota system and free movement though?
You can if you only apply quotas in certain sectors and allow free movement in others
By that logic surely you can have a points-based system in certain sectors and free movement in others? Whether or not the EU would agree to such a thing is another matter, and I strongly suspect they wouldn't accept any partial free movement deal, given it is a core principle of the single market.
Not true, an EU Commission official has said the EU was open to limited free movement for limited single market membership, a points based system could by its very nature would compromise free movement, May moving away from it gives her the flexibility to agree full free movement in whatever sectors it is needed witj some controls elsewhere
Why would a points based system applied only in some sectors compromise free movement when a quota system similarly applied wouldn't? My point is that this news probably hasn't made retention of free movement any more or less likely.
Workmen are so versatile these days, it's the only way to keep ahead in a competitive market. A plumber may also be an electrician. A carpenter might give carpet fitting a try. And you should ask any tradesman if they are also willing to have sex for money, as they might be really versatile.
I presume the talk of going balls deep unprotected, feeling horny, poppers, & coke are decorating terms I am unfamiliar with.
Like traingate, these people do realise that videos can be uploaded to the internet & everybody can watch them on their wireless person to person talking machine.
Painting is thirsty work hence the need for coke. I reckon poppers poppers is good for relaxing that hard to remove wallpaper before you start painting over.
As for being horny, he's a bloke, looking at the telephone directory gives most men the horn.
Anthony Blunt, Stella Rimington, Juan Pujol Garcia, Tom Driberg and Dan Jarvis.
And judging by what is happening to the extremist left, probably one of the multimillionaire redistributionist socialists around Corbyn - probably Seumas Milne or Jon Lansman.
BBC News suggests May refusing to commit to the points based immigration system the Vote Leave campaign committed to as 'there is no evidence it works '. More evidence she is moving towards a limited free movement and limited single market membership deal and away from full hard BREXIT
The other explanation is that she's being vague and trying to avoid getting pinned down on anything while she tries to work out wtf she's going to do.
I think the G20 has focused her mind somewhat, in terms of annoying IDS and Farage or annoying Japan and seeing factories shipped off to the Continent she will go for the former, there will be some migration controls but otherwise free movement will continue in some form to ensure we get some single market membership
If anything the Telegraph article suggests she thinks the points-based system is not restrictive enough:
The Telegraph can think what it wants and spin how it wants but a points based system would have made any free movement deal very difficult, moving away from it leaves the door open for a free movement deal of some form
Not sure you can have a quota system and free movement though?
You can if you only apply quotas in certain sectors and allow free movement in others
By that logic surely you can have a nt deal, given it is a core principle of the single market.
Not true, an EU Commission official has said the ome controls elsewhere
Why would a points based system applied only in some sectors compromise free movement when a quota system similarly applied wouldn't? My point is that this news probably hasn't made retention of free movement any more or less likely.
If May was committed to a points based system the public would expect that to be applied across the board and it compromises the EU principle of favourable treatment for EU nationals, by abandoning it May gives herself the flexibility to agree full free movement and favourable treatment for EU nationals in whatever sectors required in return for full single market access and perhaps no single market access in areas where she decides to put in controls
BBC News suggests May refusing to commit to the points based immigration system the Vote Leave campaign committed to as 'there is no evidence it works '. More evidence she is moving towards a limited free movement and limited single market membership deal and away from full hard BREXIT
The other explanation is that she's being vague and trying to avoid getting pinned down on anything while she tries to work out wtf she's going to do.
I think the G20 has focused her mind somewhat, in terms of annoying IDS and Farage or annoying Japan and seeing factories shipped off to the Continent she will go for the former, there will be some migration controls but otherwise free movement will continue in some form to ensure we get some single market membership
If anything the Telegraph article suggests she thinks the points-based system is not restrictive enough:
The Telegraph can think what it wants and spin how it wants but a points based system would have made any free movement deal very difficult, moving away from it leaves the door open for a free movement deal of some form
Not sure you can have a quota system and free movement though?
You can if you only apply quotas in certain sectors and allow free movement in others
By that logic surely you can have a nt deal, given it is a core principle of the single market.
Not true, an EU Commission official has said the ome controls elsewhere
Why would a points based system applied only in some sectors compromise free movement when a quota system similarly applied wouldn't? My point is that this news probably hasn't made retention of free movement any more or less likely.
If May was committed to a points based system the public would expect that to be applied across the board and it compromises the EU principle of favourable treatment for EU nationals, by abandoning it May gives herself the flexibility to agree full free movement and favourable treatment for EU nationals in whatever sectors required in return for full single market access and perhaps no single market access in areas where she decides to put in controls
OK, but that doesn't answer my question. Both systems would compromise free movement, which would be a tough pill for the EU to swallow (despite what one official may say).
BBC News suggests May refusing to commit to the points based immigration system the Vote Leave campaign committed to as 'there is no evidence it works '. More evidence she is moving towards a limited free movement and limited single market membership deal and away from full hard BREXIT
The other explanation is that she's being vague and trying to avoid getting pinned down on anything while she tries to work out wtf she's going to do.
I think the G20 has focused her mind somewhat, in terms of annoying IDS and Farage or annoying Japan and seeing factories shipped ohip
If anything the Telegraph article suggests she thinks the points-based system is not restrictive enough:
Not sure you can have a quota system and free movement though?
You can if you only apply quotas in certain sectors and allow free movement in others
By that logic surely you can have a nt deal, given it is a core principle of the single market.
Not true, an EU Commission official has said the ome controls elsewhere
Why would a points based system applied only in some sectors compromise free movement when a quota system similarly applied wouldn't? My point is that this news probably hasn't made retention of free movement any more or less likely.
If May was committed to a points based system the public would expect that to be applied across the board and it compromises the EU principle of favourable treatment for Erols
OK, but that doesn't answer my question. Both systems would compromise free movement, which would be a tough pill for the EU to swallow (despite what one official may say).
No they would not, if full free movement is agreed in a sector of the single market you get full single market access in that sector, it is not that difficult. If you applied a points based system you would not. In a speech as Home Secretary May made clear how important EU trade was to UK exports relative to other nations, she is a realist and will do the necessary to get a trade deal with the EU especially with the Japanese statement today
I think it's extremely probable that the intelligence services are trying to undermine Corbyn. Whether or not he deserves to be undermined is another matter.
No they would not, if full free movement is agreed in a sector of the single market you get full single market access, it is not that difficult. If you applied a points based system you would not. In a speech as Home Secretary May made clear how important EU trade was to UK exports relative to other nations, she is a realist and will do the necessary to get a trade deal with the EU especially with the Japanese statement today
Except that's not what I am talking about, I am talking about your claim that having a quota based system in one sector and free movement in another somehow does not compromise free movement, while having a points based system in that same sector and free movement in another does.
Anyway, I think it will be very difficult to get a deal on partial free movement.
The washing machine talk makes sense now. If these lads are in the trade of course they would be interested in buying some cheap washing machines off Keith, I mean Jim...I hope he has declared these outside interests in the members register.
And you know chatting over trade stuff, one thing leads to another then you end up in a four way #### fest.
I think it's extremely probable that the intelligence services are trying to undermine Corbyn. Whether or not he deserves to be undermined is another matter.
Don't you think they have better things to do? The chance of him actually being elected are slim to none!
No they would not, if full free movement is agreed in a sector of the single market you get full single market access, it is not that difficult. If you applied a points based system you would not. In a speech as Home Secretary May made clear how important EU trade was to UK exports relative to other nations, she is a realist and will do the necessary to get a trade deal with the EU especially with the Japanese statement today
Except that's not what I am talking about, I am talking about your claim that having a quota based system in one sector and free movement in another somehow does not compromise free movement, while having a points based system in that same sector and free movement in another does.
Anyway, I think it will be very difficult to get a deal on partial free movement.
If May commits to a points based system the public will expect to see that applied across the board and you cannot align that with free movement. As for a partial free movement deal there is no choice now, May will have to do whatever necessary to get it, the alternative is economic catastrophe and the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs in the Midlands and Northeast and the closure of factories across those regions and their transfer to the Continent (albeit Brexit voters in those areas have only themselves to blame)
I think it's extremely probable that the intelligence services are trying to undermine Corbyn. Whether or not he deserves to be undermined is another matter.
Don't you think they have better things to do? The chance of him actually being elected are slim to none!
Well they are at a lose end after failing to fix the brexit vote after too many people brought their own pens!
I think it's extremely probable that the intelligence services are trying to undermine Corbyn. Whether or not he deserves to be undermined is another matter.
Why would they need to?! The things that undermine him for most people are the things he says, he doesn't need the intelligence services to be involved, he just needs a camera.
I honestly find it baffling that people would think there is something more sinister going on. Like most conspiracy crap, it just makes no sense from the PoV of the supposed conspirators or relies on them being all powerful (in this case the ability to make Corbyn say things that lack mainstream appeal for 30 years, then get people to look them up). It's buffoonery, sorry to say, and the very occasional genuine conspiracy doesn't change that.
Comments
People who called the 2015 GE and the referendum so completely wrong are now so certain about an election in a foreign land that it must be worth a few quid betting that they will get it wrong again.
They are not Labour voters, they are Corbyn cultists.
I think that the only thing that can finish him off will be the grim reaper, and even then his acolytes would expect him to pop up 3 days later...
Where are Clinton's Policies? In fact - where is Clinton?
Tim Kaine is probably doing the same as is Mike Pence - that's the real nature of US campaigning, not the big-ticket rallies.
"On topic, I have long thought the value bet is on Leave. I have a decent sum on at 4.8 average. The odds on Remain under 45% are even better. My plan was to go all Green as the odds narrowed, but sadly they have been stubbonly resistant to budging".
I cannot see much value on Trump. When you look at the EC votes it is very difficult for Trump to win.
The closest to value betting that I can see is the state betting, where some of the swing and leaning Trump states offer some value on Democrat winning.
Personally, that's the sort of order one requests in writing before the work is carried out. Properly in writing, with a signature in ink on the bottom of the note.
However I don't believe Smith supporters would truly back splitting off to a new party to such an extent - it's one of those things they might dream about, but would never do en masse to even 1/4 of Smith supporters. Slightly more saying to support Corbyn I note, and given the atmosphere, probably more than admit to that would feel the same.
He has done twice the number of rallies than Hillary, I even put the list down on PB a few days ago.
Hillary is more focused on TV ads.
Trump Campaign= pre 1960
Hillary Campaign= after 1960
Labour appears to have held it since 1945.
https://twitter.com/CorbynSnap/status/772545987168665600
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/04/two-thirds-believe-britain-is-on-the-right-track-following-brexi/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Crg9qKUXYAAoWsk.jpg
One of the many interesting things on the board is Smith's own internal figures:
Strong Owen 23%
Weak Owen 6%
D/K 23%
Weak Corbyn 8%
Strong Corbyn 40%
Out of a sample of 62.
Excluding D/K it's the same as yougov.
Many were joking Corbyn 49-Smith 1, in this case Smith's own figures show Corbyn 48-Smith 29, which after excluding the undecideds it's exactly the 62-38 that yougov found.
A good reason for Smith not to reveal what his own poll says about him.
I get this nagging feeling the Japanese government has done more work on Brexit than the UK government.
Bring on AFE, Alternative for England.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/04/g20-summit-theresa-may-ready-to-block-boris-johnsons-point-based/
Like traingate, these people do realise that videos can be uploaded to the internet & everybody can watch them on their wireless person to person talking machine.
As for being horny, he's a bloke, looking at the telephone directory gives most men the horn.
Anthony Blunt, Stella Rimington, Juan Pujol Garcia, Tom Driberg and Dan Jarvis.
And judging by what is happening to the extremist left, probably one of the multimillionaire redistributionist socialists around Corbyn - probably Seumas Milne or Jon Lansman.
Perhaps Dianne Abbott is an MI5 "Swallow".
I hear the money trail will be interesting to follow
Did you not see this coming ? Some Japanese people were seen looking at plots in Drogheda recently.
Anyway, I think it will be very difficult to get a deal on partial free movement.
And you know chatting over trade stuff, one thing leads to another then you end up in a four way #### fest.
I honestly find it baffling that people would think there is something more sinister going on. Like most conspiracy crap, it just makes no sense from the PoV of the supposed conspirators or relies on them being all powerful (in this case the ability to make Corbyn say things that lack mainstream appeal for 30 years, then get people to look them up). It's buffoonery, sorry to say, and the very occasional genuine conspiracy doesn't change that.